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USGS2004

Assessing sorbent injection mercury control effectiveness in flue gas streams

One promising approach for removing mercury from coal-fired, utility flue gas involves the direct injection of mercury sorbents. Although this method has been effective at removing mercury in municipal waste incinerators, tests conducted to date on utility coal-fired boilers show that mercury removal is much more difficult in utility flue gas. EPRI is conducting research to investigate mercury removal using sorbents in this application. Bench-scale, pilot-scale, and field tests have been conducted to determine the ability of different sorbents to remove mercury in simulated and actual flue gas streams. This paper focuses on recent bench-scale and field test results evaluating the adsorption characteristics of activated carbon and fly ash and the use of these results to develop a predictive mercury removal model. Field tests with activated carbon show that adsorption characteristics measured in the lab agree reasonably well with characteristics measured in the field. However, more laboratory and field data will be needed to identify other gas phase components which may impact performance. This will allow laboratory tests to better simulate field conditions and provide improved estimates of sorbent performance for specific sites. In addition to activated carbon results, bench-scale and modeling results using fly ash are presented which suggest that certain fly ashes are capable of adsorbing mercury.

Environmental Progress↗

USGS2014

Assessment of floodplain vulnerability during extreme Mississippi River flood 2011

Regional change in the variability and magnitude of flooding could be a major consequence of future global climate change. Extreme floods have the capacity to rapidly transform landscapes and expose landscape vulnerabilities through highly variable spatial patterns of inundation, erosion, and deposition. We use the historic activation of the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway during the Mississippi and Ohio River Flooding of 2011 as a scientifically unique stress experiment to analyze indicators of floodplain vulnerability. We use pre- and postflood airborne Light Detection and Ranging data sets to locate erosional and depositional hotspots over the 540 km 2 agricultural Floodway. While riparian vegetation between the river and the main levee breach likely prevented widespread deposition, localized scour and deposition occurred near the levee breaches. Eroded gullies nearly 1 km in length were observed at a low ridge of a relict meander scar of the Mississippi River. Our flow modeling and spatial mapping analysis attributes this vulnerability to a combination of erodible soils, flow acceleration associated with legacy fluvial landforms, and a lack of woody vegetation to anchor soil and enhance flow resistance. Results from this study could guide future mitigation and adaptation measures in cases of extreme flooding.

Cairo, Illinois↗

USGS2012

Contaminants in stream sediments from seven United States metropolitan areas: part I: distribution in relation to urbanization

Organic contaminants and trace elements were measured in bed sediments collected from streams in seven metropolitan study areas across the United States to assess concentrations in relation to urbanization. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, polychlorinated biphenyls, organochlorine pesticides, the pyrethroid insecticide bifenthrin, and several trace elements were significantly related to urbanization across study areas. Most contaminants (except bifenthrin, chromium, nickel) were significantly related to the total organic carbon (TOC) content of the sediments. Regression models explained 45–80 % of the variability in individual contaminant concentrations using degree of urbanization, sediment-TOC, and study-area indicator variables (which represent the combined influence of unknown factors, such as chemical use or release, that are not captured by available explanatory variables). The significance of one or more study-area indicator variables in all models indicates marked differences in contaminant levels among some study areas, even after accounting for the nationally modeled effects of urbanization and sediment-TOC. Mean probable effect concentration quotients (PECQs) were significantly related to urbanization. Trace elements were the major contributors to mean PECQs at undeveloped sites, whereas organic contaminants, especially bifenthrin, were the major contributors at highly urban sites. Pyrethroids, where detected, accounted for the largest share of the mean PECQ. Part 2 of this series (Kemble et al. 2012) evaluates sediment toxicity to amphipods and midge in relation to sediment chemistry.

Archives of Environmental Contamination and Toxico↗

USGS2022

A forested wetland at a climate-induced tipping-point: 17-year demographic evidence of widespread tree recruitment failure

Regeneration and survival of forested wetlands are affected by environmental variables related to the hydrologic regime. Climate change, specifically alterations to precipitation patterns, may have outsized effects on these forests. In Tennessee, USA, precipitation has increased by 15% since 1960. The goal of our research was to assess the evidence for whether this change in precipitation patterns resulted in shorter growing seasons and recruitment failure in common canopy trees for a forest wetland. In 2001 and 2018, the density of Quercus lyrata (overcup oak), Liquidambar styraciflua (sweetgum), Quercus phellos (willow oak), and Betula nigra (river birch) seedling, sapling and adult density were mapped in an area of 2.3 ha within a seasonally flooded karst depression. Overall, the percentage of the growing season experiencing inundation was 26% greater in the deep than in shallow areas between 2001 and 2018. Saplings and small adults of all four species were restricted to shallow areas, and their abundance has declined substantially. Overcup oak and sweetgum individuals that were recruited into the adult life history stage were repelled from the deep zone. Overcup oak and sweetgum adults experienced lower mortality across the 2.3-ha study area (11% and 26%, respectively) relative to willow oak (56%) and river birch (64%) over the 17-year study. Growing-season inundation showed no relation to mortality in adult sweetgum and willow oak, a positive relation to mortality among adult river birch across size classes and among small adult overcup oak, and an inverse relation to mortality among large adult overcup oak. In shallow regions, overcup oak and sweetgum adults had greater basal area increment relative to the intermediate and deep regions of the pond. Results of hydrologic modeling for the study area, based on rainfall and temperature records covering 1855–2019, show ponding durations after 1970 considerably longer than the historical baseline, across ponding-depth classes. Our results strongly suggest that climate change is a driving factor suppressing tree regeneration since 1970 in this seasonally flooded karst depression.

Tennessee↗

USGS2020

Characterizing land surface phenology and exotic annual grasses in dryland ecosystems using Landsat and Sentinel-2 data in harmony

Invasive annual grasses, such as cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum L.), have proliferated in dryland ecosystems of the western United States, promoting increased fire activity and reduced biodiversity that can be detrimental to socio-environmental systems. Monitoring exotic annual grass cover and dynamics over large areas requires the use of remote sensing that can support early detection and rapid response initiatives. However, few studies have leveraged remote sensing technologies and computing frameworks capable of providing rangeland managers with maps of exotic annual grass cover at relatively high spatiotemporal resolutions and near real-time latencies. Here, we developed a system for automated mapping of invasive annual grass (%) cover using in situ observations, harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 (HLS) data, maps of biophysical variables, and machine learning techniques. A robust and automated cloud, cloud shadow, water, and snow/ice masking procedure (mean overall accuracy >81%) was implemented using time-series outlier detection and data mining techniques prior to spatiotemporal interpolation of HLS data via regression tree models (r = 0.94; mean absolute error (MAE) = 0.02). Weekly, cloud-free normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) image composites (2016–2018) were used to construct a suite of spectral and phenological metrics (e.g., start and end of season dates), consistent with information derived from Moderate Resolution Image Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. These metrics were incorporated into a data mining framework that accurately (r = 0.83; MAE = 11) modeled and mapped exotic annual grass (%) cover throughout dryland ecosystems in the western United States at a native, 30-m spatial resolution. Our results show that inclusion of weekly HLS time-series data and derived indicators improves our ability to map exotic annual grass cover, as compared to distribution models that use MODIS products or monthly, seasonal, or annual HLS composites as primary inputs. This research fills a critical gap in our ability to effectively assess, manage, and monitor drylands by providing a framework that allows for an accurate and timely depiction of land surface phenology and exotic annual grass cover at spatial and temporal resolutions that are meaningful to local resource managers.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon↗

USGS2024

Fish health altered by contaminants and low water temperatures compounded by prolonged regional drought in the Lower Colorado River Basin, USA

The goal of this study was to assess health of male Common Carp (carp, Cyprinus carpio ) at four sites with a wide range in environmental organic contaminant (EOC) concentrations and water temperatures in Lake Mead National Recreation Area NV/AZ, US, and the potential influence of regional drought. Histological and reproductive biomarkers were measured in 17–30 carp at four sites and 130 EOCs in water per site were analyzed using passive samplers in 2010. Wide ranges among sites were noted in total EOC concentrations (>10Xs) and water temperature/degree days (10Xs). In 2007/08, total polychlorinated biphenyls (tPCBs) in fish whole bodies from Willow Beach (WB) in the free-flowing Colorado River below Hoover Dam were clearly higher than at the other sites. This was most likely due to longer exposures in colder water (12–14 °C) and fish there having the longest lifespan (up to 54 years) for carp reported in the Colorado River Basin. Calculated estrogenicity in water exceeded long-term, environmentally safe criteria of 0.1–0.4 ng/L by one to three orders of magnitude at all sites except the reference site. Low ecological screening values for four contaminants of emerging concern (CEC) in water were exceeded for one CEC in the reference site, two in WB and Las Vegas Bay and three in the most contaminated site LVW. Fish health biomarkers in WB carp had 25% lower liver glycogen, 10Xs higher testicular pigmented cell aggregates and higher sperm abnormalities than the reference site. Sperm from LVW fish also had significantly higher fragmentation of DNA, lower motility and testis had lower percent of spermatozoa, all of which can impair reproduction. Projections from a 3D water quality model performed for WB showed that EOC concentrations due to prolonged regional drought and reduced water levels could increase as high as 135%. Water temperatures by late 21st century are predicted to rise between 0.7 and 2.1 °C that could increase eutrophication, algal blooms, spread disease and decrease dissolved oxygen over 5%.

Arizona, Nevada↗

USGS2026

An ecosystem-scale model of PFAS dynamics in stream-to-riparian food webs

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are widespread contaminants in aquatic ecosystems, where they bioaccumulate and trophically transfer through food webs. We derived an ecosystem-scale model assessing Σ 12 PFAS partitioning, bioaccumulation by larval aquatic insects, bioamplification by adult aquatic insects, and trophic transfer from aquatic insects to riparian spiders using data collected across five streams in a mildly impacted watershed. Partitioning involved the greatest PFAS enrichments (range in posterior median log 10 k d values = 1.5–2.1), with lesser concentration increases from particulates to larval aquatic insects and from larval to adult aquatic insects, and Σ 12 PFAS concentration decreases from adult aquatic insects to spiders. Among the 12 compounds, PFOS had the largest proportional contribution to Σ 12 PFAS concentrations for all sample types, with consistently increasing concentrations from surface water to adult aquatic insects. Σ 12 PFAS concentrations (5.4–51 ppb wet weight), body burdens (0.44–5.2 ng per individual), and bioamplification factors (0.15–4.9) differed considerably among five common aquatic insect taxa. This study presents a robust modeling framework for PFAS trophodynamics and offers insights into the biological controls that contribute to the context dependency of PFAS at the interfaces of aquatic and terrestrial food webs.

Connecticut, Massachusetts↗

USGS1996

Comparison of the uptake of dioxin-like compounds by caged channel catfish and semipermeable membrane devices in the Saginaw River, Michigan

Elevated concentrations of planar, halogenated hydrocarbons have been linked to reproductive problems in a variety of fish-eating birds and mammals in the Great Lakes and in particular Saginaw Bay. Currently, there are no accurate procedures to assess bioavailability of these contaminants. Polychlorinated dibenzo- p -dioxins and dibenzofurans and mono- and non- ortho -chloro-substituted biphenyls in water at the femtogram to picogram per liter range were passively concentrated in semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs), and these data were compared to the bioconcentration in co-exposed (caged) channel catfish. Sediment-derived water concentration estimates, calculated from a steady-state partitioning model, did not correlate well to those derived from either fish or SPMDs. The use of SPMDs demonstrated the utility of in-situ passive sampling over inference of water concentrations from accumulation in biota or partitioning with sediment. Residues ac cumulated by SPMDs have been shown to be proportional to analyte water concentration, whereas this does not appear to be the case for fish tissues. The greater amounts of 3,3‘,4,4‘-tetrachlorobiphenyl and 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzofuran accumulated in SPMDs than in exposed channel catfish indicated those non-passive aspects of bioconcentration in organisms, such as biotransformation and elimination, introduced 50−500% error in the assumed degree of exposure.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2009

Observed and predicted reproduction of Ceriodaphnia dubia exposed to chloride, sulfate, and bicarbonate

Chronic toxicities of Cl - , SO 4 2- , and HCO 3 - to Ceriodaphnia dubia were evaluated in low- and moderate-hardness waters using a three-brood reproduction test method. Toxicity tests of anion mixtures were used to determine interaction effects and to produce models predicting C. dubia reproduction. Effluents diluted with low- and moderate-hardness waters were tested with animals acclimated to low- and moderate-hardness conditions to evaluate the models and to assess the effects of hardness and acclimation. Sulfate was significantly less toxic than Cl - and HCO 3 - in both types of water. Chloride and HCO 3 - toxicities were similar in low-hardness water, but HCO 3 - was the most toxic in moderate-hardness water. Low acute-to-chronic ratios indicate that toxicities of these anions will decrease quickly with dilution. Hardness significantly reduced Cl - and SO 4 2- toxicity but had little effect on HCO 3 - . Chloride toxicity decreased with an increase in Na + concentration, and CO 3 - toxicity may have been reduced by the dissolved organic carbon in effluent. Multivariate models using measured anion concentrations in effluents with low to moderate hardness levels provided fairly accurate predictions of reproduction. Determinations of toxicity for several effluents differed significantly depending on the hardness of the dilution water and the hardness of the water used to culture test animals. These results can be used to predict the contribution of elevated anion concentrations to the chronic toxicity of effluents; to identify effluents that are toxic due to contaminants other than Cl - , SO 4 2- , and HCO 3 - ; and to provide a basis for chemical substitutions in manufacturing processes.

Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry↗

USGS2005

Concentrations of cadmium, lead, and zinc in fish from mining-influenced waters of northeastern Oklahoma: Sampling of blood, carcass, and liver for aquatic biomonitoring

The Tri-States Mining District (TSMD) of Missouri (MO), Kansas (KS), and Oklahoma (OK), USA, was mined for lead (Pb) and zinc (Zn) for more than a century. Mining ceased more than 30 years ago, but wastes remain widely distributed in the region, and there is evidence of surface- and groundwater contamination in the Spring River-Neosho River (SR-NR) system of northeastern OK. In October 2001, we collected a total of 74 fish from six locations in the SR-NR system that included common carp (Cyprinus carpio), channel- and flathead catfish (Ictalurus punctatus and Pylodictis olivaris), largemouth- and spotted bass (Micropterus salmoides and Micropterus punctulatus), and white crappie (Pomoxis annularis). We obtained additional fish from locations in MO that included three reference sites and one site that served as a "positive control" (heavily contaminated by Pb). Blood, carcass (headed, eviscerated, and scaled) and liver (carp only) samples were analyzed for cadmium (Cd), Pb, and Zn. Our objectives were to assess the degree to which fish from the OK portion of the SR-NR system are contaminated by these elements and to evaluate fish blood sampling for biomonitoring. Concentrations of Cd and Pb in carp and catfish from OK sites were elevated and Pb concentrations of some approached those of the highly contaminated site in MO, but concentrations in bass and crappie were relatively low. For Zn, correlations were weak among concentrations in the three tissues and none of the samples appeared to reflect site contamination. Variability was high for Cd in all three tissues of carp; differences between sites were statistically significant (p < 0.05) only for blood even though mean liver concentrations were at least 100-fold greater than those in blood. Blood concentrations of Cd and Pb were positively correlated (r 2 = 0.49 to 0.84) with the concentration of the same element in carp and catfish carcasses or in carp livers, and the corresponding multiple regression models were highly significant (p < 0.001). Our data indicate that potentially nonlethal blood sampling can be useful for monitoring of selected metals in carp, catfish, and perhaps other fishes. ?? 2005 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.

Archives of Environmental Contamination and Toxico↗

USGS2016

Using inferential sensors for quality control of Everglades Depth Estimation Network water-level data

The Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN), with over 240 real-time gaging stations, provides hydrologic data for freshwater and tidal areas of the Everglades. These data are used to generate daily water-level and water-depth maps of the Everglades that are used to assess biotic responses to hydrologic change resulting from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. The generation of EDEN daily water-level and water-depth maps is dependent on high quality real-time data from water-level stations. Real-time data are automatically checked for outliers by assigning minimum and maximum thresholds for each station. Small errors in the real-time data, such as gradual drift of malfunctioning pressure transducers, are more difficult to immediately identify with visual inspection of time-series plots and may only be identified during on-site inspections of the stations. Correcting these small errors in the data often is time consuming and water-level data may not be finalized for several months. To provide daily water-level and water-depth maps on a near real-time basis, EDEN needed an automated process to identify errors in water-level data and to provide estimates for missing or erroneous water-level data. The Automated Data Assurance and Management (ADAM) software uses inferential sensor technology often used in industrial applications. Rather than installing a redundant sensor to measure a process, such as an additional water-level station, inferential sensors, or virtual sensors, were developed for each station that make accurate estimates of the process measured by the hard sensor (water-level gaging station). The inferential sensors in the ADAM software are empirical models that use inputs from one or more proximal stations. The advantage of ADAM is that it provides a redundant signal to the sensor in the field without the environmental threats associated with field conditions at stations (flood or hurricane, for example). In the event that a station does malfunction, ADAM provides an accurate estimate for the period of missing data. The ADAM software also is used in the quality assurance and quality control of the data. The virtual signals are compared to the real-time data, and if the difference between the two signals exceeds a certain tolerance, corrective action to the data and (or) the gaging station can be taken. The ADAM software is automated so that, each morning, the real-time EDEN data are compared to the inferential sensor signals and digital reports highlighting potential erroneous real-time data are generated for appropriate support personnel. The development and application of inferential sensors is easily transferable to other real-time hydrologic monitoring networks.

Florida↗

USGS2015

Methods used to parameterize the spatially-explicit components of a state-and-transition simulation model

Spatially-explicit state-and-transition simulation models of land use and land cover (LULC) increase our ability to assess regional landscape characteristics and associated carbon dynamics across multiple scenarios. By characterizing appropriate spatial attributes such as forest age and land-use distribution, a state-and-transition model can more effectively simulate the pattern and spread of LULC changes. This manuscript describes the methods and input parameters of the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS), a customized state-and-transition simulation model utilized to assess the relative impacts of LULC on carbon stocks for the conterminous U.S. The methods and input parameters are spatially explicit and describe initial conditions (strata, state classes and forest age), spatial multipliers, and carbon stock density. Initial conditions were derived from harmonization of multi-temporal data characterizing changes in land use as well as land cover. Harmonization combines numerous national-level datasets through a cell-based data fusion process to generate maps of primary LULC categories. Forest age was parameterized using data from the North American Carbon Program and spatially-explicit maps showing the locations of past disturbances (i.e. wildfire and harvest). Spatial multipliers were developed to spatially constrain the location of future LULC transitions. Based on distance-decay theory, maps were generated to guide the placement of changes related to forest harvest, agricultural intensification/extensification, and urbanization. We analyze the spatially-explicit input parameters with a sensitivity analysis, by showing how LUCAS responds to variations in the model input. This manuscript uses Mediterranean California as a regional subset to highlight local to regional aspects of land change, which demonstrates the utility of LUCAS at many scales and applications.

AIMS Environmental Science↗

USGS2021

Evaluating management options to reduce Lake Erie algal blooms using an ensemble of watershed models

Reducing harmful algal blooms in Lake Erie, situated between the United States and Canada, requires implementing best management practices to decrease nutrient loading from upstream sources. Bi-national water quality targets have been set for total and dissolved phosphorus loads, with the ultimate goal of reaching these targets in 9-out-of-10 years. Row crop agriculture dominates the land use in the Western Lake Erie Basin thus requiring efforts to mitigate nutrient loads from agricultural systems. To determine the types and extent of agricultural management practices needed to reach the water quality goals, we used five independently developed Soil and Water Assessment Tool models to evaluate the effects of 18 management scenarios over a 10-year period on nutrient export. Guidance from a stakeholder group was provided throughout the project, and resulted in improved data, development of realistic scenarios, and expanded outreach. Subsurface placement of phosphorus fertilizers, cover crops, riparian buffers, and wetlands were among the most effective management options. But, only in one realistic scenario did a majority (3/5) of the models predict that the total phosphorus loading target would be met in 9-out-of-10 years. Further, the dissolved phosphorus loading target was predicted to meet the 9-out-of-10-year goal by only one model and only in three scenarios. In all scenarios evaluated, the 9-out-of-10-year goal was not met based on the average of model predictions. Ensemble modeling revealed general agreement about the effects of several practices although some scenarios resulted in a wide range of uncertainty. Overall, our results demonstrate that there are multiple pathways to approach the established water quality goals, but greater adoption rates of practices than those tested here will likely be needed to attain the management targets.

Michigan↗

USGS2013

Parallelization of a hydrological model using the message passing interface

With the increasing knowledge about the natural processes, hydrological models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) are becoming larger and more complex with increasing computation time. Additionally, other procedures such as model calibration, which may require thousands of model iterations, can increase running time and thus further reduce rapid modeling and analysis. Using the widely-applied SWAT as an example, this study demonstrates how to parallelize a serial hydrological model in a Windows® environment using a parallel programing technology—Message Passing Interface (MPI). With a case study, we derived the optimal values for the two parameters (the number of processes and the corresponding percentage of work to be distributed to the master process) of the parallel SWAT (P-SWAT) on an ordinary personal computer and a work station. Our study indicates that model execution time can be reduced by 42%–70% (or a speedup of 1.74–3.36) using multiple processes (two to five) with a proper task-distribution scheme (between the master and slave processes). Although the computation time cost becomes lower with an increasing number of processes (from two to five), this enhancement becomes less due to the accompanied increase in demand for message passing procedures between the master and all slave processes. Our case study demonstrates that the P-SWAT with a five-process run may reach the maximum speedup, and the performance can be quite stable (fairly independent of a project size). Overall, the P-SWAT can help reduce the computation time substantially for an individual model run, manual and automatic calibration procedures, and optimization of best management practices. In particular, the parallelization method we used and the scheme for deriving the optimal parameters in this study can be valuable and easily applied to other hydrological or environmental models.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗

USGS2021

Assessing the impact of drought on arsenic exposure from private domestic wells in the conterminous United States

This study assesses the potential impact of drought on arsenic exposure from private domestic wells by using a previously developed statistical model that predicts the probability of elevated arsenic concentrations (>10 μg per liter) in water from domestic wells located in the conterminous United States (CONUS). The application of the model to simulate drought conditions used systematically reduced precipitation and recharge values. The drought conditions resulted in higher probabilities of elevated arsenic throughout most of the CONUS. While the increase in the probability of elevated arsenic was generally less than 10% at any one location, when considered over the entire CONUS, the increase has considerable public health implications. The population exposed to elevated arsenic from domestic wells was estimated to increase from approximately 2.7 million to 4.1 million people during drought. The model was also run using total annual precipitation and groundwater recharge values from the year 2012 when drought existed over a large extent of the CONUS. This simulation provided a method for comparing the duration of drought to changes in the predicted probability of high arsenic in domestic wells. These results suggest that the probability of exposure to arsenic concentrations greater than 10 μg per liter increases with increasing duration of drought. These findings indicate that drought has a potentially adverse impact on the arsenic hazard from domestic wells throughout the CONUS.

Conterminous United States↗

USGS2014

The impacts of recent permafrost thaw on land-atmosphere greenhouse gas exchange

Permafrost thaw and the subsequent mobilization of carbon (C) stored in previously frozen soil organic matter (SOM) have the potential to be a strong positive feedback to climate. As the northern permafrost region experiences as much as a doubling of the rate of warming as the rest of the Earth, the vast amount of C in permafrost soils is vulnerable to thaw, decomposition and release as atmospheric greenhouse gases. Diagnostic and predictive estimates of high-latitude terrestrial C fluxes vary widely among different models depending on how dynamics in permafrost, and the seasonally thawed 'active layer' above it, are represented. Here, we employ a process-based model simulation experiment to assess the net effect of active layer dynamics on this 'permafrost carbon feedback' in recent decades, from 1970 to 2006, over the circumpolar domain of continuous and discontinuous permafrost. Over this time period, the model estimates a mean increase of 6.8 cm in active layer thickness across the domain, which exposes a total of 11.6 Pg C of thawed SOM to decomposition. According to our simulation experiment, mobilization of this previously frozen C results in an estimated cumulative net source of 3.7 Pg C to the atmosphere since 1970 directly tied to active layer dynamics. Enhanced decomposition from the newly exposed SOM accounts for the release of both CO 2 (4.0 Pg C) and CH 4 (0.03 Pg C), but is partially compensated by CO 2 uptake (0.3 Pg C) associated with enhanced net primary production of vegetation. This estimated net C transfer to the atmosphere from permafrost thaw represents a significant factor in the overall ecosystem carbon budget of the Pan-Arctic, and a non-trivial additional contribution on top of the combined fossil fuel emissions from the eight Arctic nations over this time period.

Environmental Research Letters↗

USGS2009

Disease, predation and demography: Assessing the impacts of bovine tuberculosis on African buffalo by monitoring at individual and population levels

Summary Understanding the effects of disease is critical to determining appropriate management responses, but estimating those effects in wildlife species is challenging. We used bovine tuberculosis (BTB) in the African buffalo Syncerus caffer population of Kruger National Park, South Africa, as a case study to highlight the issues associated with estimating chronic disease effects in a long‐lived host. We used known and radiocollared buffalo, aerial census data, and a natural gradient in pathogen prevalence to investigate if: (i) at the individual level, BTB infection reduces reproduction; (ii) BTB infection increases vulnerability to predation; and (iii) at the population level, increased BTB prevalence causes reduced population growth. There was only a marginal reduction in calving success associated with BTB infection, as indexed by the probability of sighting a known adult female with or without a calf ( P = 0·065). Since 1991, BTB prevalence increased from 27 to 45% in the southern region and from 4 to 28% in the central region of Kruger National Park. The prevalence in the northern regions was only 1·5% in 1998. Buffalo population growth rates, however, were neither statistically different among regions nor declining over time. Lions Panthera leo did not appear to preferentially kill test‐positive buffalo. The best (Akaike's Information Criterion corrected for small sample size) AIC c model with BTB as a covariate [exp(β) = 0·49; 95% CI = (0·24–1·02)] suggested that the mortality hazard for positive individuals was no greater than for test‐negative individuals. Synthesis and applications . Test accuracy, time‐varying disease status, and movement among populations are some of the issues that make the detection of chronic disease impacts challenging. For these reasons, the demographic impacts of bovine tuberculosis in the Kruger National Park remain undetectable despite 6 years of study on known individuals and 40 years of population counts. However, the rainfall and forage conditions during this study were relatively good and the impacts of many chronic diseases may be a non‐linear function of environmental conditions such that they are only detectable in stressful periods.

Kruger National Park↗

USGS2009

Biodegradation of 17β-estradiol, estrone, and testosterone in stream sediments

The release of endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) in wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluent poses a significant threat to the ecology of surface water receptors, due to impacts on the hormonal control, sexual development, reproductive success and community structure of the indigenous aquatic organisms and associated wildlife. Among the EDCs commonly observed in WWTP effluent, the natural [e.g., 17??-estradiol (E2) and estrone (E1)] and synthetic [e.g., ethynylestradiol (EE2)] estrogens are particular concerns owing to their high endocrine reactivity in both in vitro and in vivo laboratory models. These reproductive hormones have been identified as the primary cause of estrogenic effects in wastewater effluent, with greater than 95% of the estrogen receptor agonist activity in effluent attributed to this contaminant group. The potentials for in situ biodegradation of 17??-estradiol (E2), estrone (E1), and testosterone (T) were investigated in three, hydrologically-distinct, WWTP-impacted streams in the United States. Relative differences in the mineralization of [4- 14 C] substrates were assessed in oxic microcosms containing sediment or water-only from locations upstream and downstream of the WWTP outfall in each system. Upstream samples provided insight into the biodegradative potential of sediment microbial communities that were not under the immediate impact of WWTP effluent. Upstream sediment from all three systems demonstrated significant mineralization of the "A" ring of E2, E1 and T, with the potential of T biodegradation consistently greater than of E2 and no systematic difference in the potentials of E2 and E1. Downstream samples provided insight into the impacts of effluent on reproductive hormone biodegradation. Significant "A" ring mineralization was also observed in downstream sediment, with the potentials for E1 and T mineralization being substantially depressed relative to upstream samples. In marked contrast, the potentials for E2 mineralization immediately downstream of the WWTP outfalls were more than double that of upstream samples. E2 mineralization was also observed in water, albeit at insufficient rate to prevent substantial downstream transport in the water column. The results of this study indicate that, in combination with sediment sorption processes which effectively scavenge hydrophobic contaminants from the water column and immobilize them in the vicinity of the WWTP outfall, aerobic biodegradation of reproductive hormones can be an environmentally important mechanism for nonconservative (destructive) attenuation of hormonal endocrine disruptors in effluent-impacted streams.

Conference Paper↗