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At least 1,387 records · Page 77Linked to original sources

USGS2019

Future losses of playa wetlands decrease network structure and connectivity of the Rainwater Basin, Nebraska

Context The Rainwater Basin in south-central Nebraska once supported a complex network of ~ 12,000 spatially-isolated playa wetlands, but ~ 90% have been lost since European settlement. Future losses are likely and expected reductions in connectivity could further isolate populations, increasing local extinction rates of many wetland species. However, to what extent future losses will affect wildlife likely depends on the role of lost wetlands in maintaining connectivity. Objectives We compared the current Rainwater Basin network to future wetland loss scenarios to assess minimum, mean, and maximum effects of losses on network connectivity for a range of wildlife taxa. Methods We used network models to rank wetlands by their functionality and relative importance in maintaining connectivity. We then removed 10–50% of high-ranked, low-ranked, or random subsets of wetlands and assessed connectivity of the remaining network. Results A 10% loss of highly-ranked wetlands substantially decreased connectivity for species with dispersal capabilities < 5.5 km, while a 40–50% loss reduced connectivity for all tested dispersal distances (0.5–12.0 km). When large proportions of highly-ranked wetlands were lost, the eastern and western halves of the Rainwater Basin network were no longer connected for any dispersal distance. Loss of low-ranked wetlands had minimal effects on network connectivity, until at least the lowest-ranked 50% were removed. Conclusions Many highly-ranked playa wetlands in the Rainwater Basin are currently unprotected and might disappear from the landscape. Protecting wetlands that are key in maintaining connectivity especially benefits species with limited dispersal capabilities (< 5.5 km) for which consequences of future habitat losses might be worst.

Nebraska↗

USGS2019

Nest structure affects auditory and visual detectability, but not predation risk, in a tropical songbird community

Offspring mortality varies dramatically among species with critical demographic and evolutionary ramifications, yet the causes of this variation remain unclear. Nests are widely used for breeding across taxa and thought to influence offspring mortality risk. Traditionally, more complex, enclosed nest structures are thought to reduce offspring predation by reducing the visibility of nest contents and muffling offspring sounds compared to open nests. Direct tests of the functional bases for nest structure influence on predation risk are lacking. We used experiments and 10 years of observational data to examine how nest structure influences nest predation risk in a diverse community of tropical songbirds. First, we examined how nest size was related to nest structure and nest predation rates across species. Second, we assessed how nest structure influences the detectability of nestling begging calls both in field and in laboratory settings. Finally, we examined how the acoustic properties of different nest structures influence nest predation risk. Specifically, we experimentally broadcast begging calls from open and enclosed nests to determine how auditory cues and nest structure interact to affect predation on plasticine and quail eggs. We also tested whether nest structure was associated with differences in nest predation rates between the incubation (no begging cues) and nestling (begging cues) stages. We found that enclosed nests are larger than open nests after accounting for adult size, and larger nests had increased predation rates. Moreover, enclosed nests did not consistently alter nestling begging calls in ways that reduce the likelihood of predation compared to open nests. Indeed, begging cues increased predation rates for enclosed but not open‐cup nests in our playback experiment, and nest predation rates showed greater increases after hatching in enclosed than open‐cup nests. Ultimately, enclosed nests do not necessarily provide greater predation benefits than open nests in contrast to long‐standing theory.

Functional Ecology↗

USGS2022

Hybrid enrichment of adaptive variation revealed by genotype-environment associations in montane sedges

The role of hybridization in diversification is complex and may result in many possible outcomes. Not only can hybridization produce new lineages, but those lineages may contain unique combinations of adaptive genetic variation derived from parental taxa that allow hybrid-origin lineages to occupy unique environmental space relative to one (or both) parents. We document such a case of hybridization between two sedge species, Carex nova and Carex nelsonii (Cyperaceae), that occupy partially overlapping environmental space in the southern Rocky Mountains, USA. In the region hypothesized to be the origin of the hybrid lineage, one parental taxon ( C. nelsonii ) is at the edge of its environmental tolerance. Hybrid-origin individuals display mixed ancestry between the parental taxa – of nearly 7,000 unlinked loci sampled, almost 30% showed evidence of excess ancestry from one parental lineage – approximately half displayed a genomic background skewed towards one parent, and half skewed towards the other. To test whether excess ancestry loci may have conferred an adaptive advantage to the hybrid-origin lineage, we conducted genotype-environment association analyses on different combinations of loci – with and without excess ancestry – and with multiple contrasts between the hybrids and parental taxa. Loci with skewed ancestry showed significant environmental associations distinguishing the hybrid lineage from one parent ( C. nelsonii ), whereas loci with relatively equal representation of parental ancestries showed no such environmental associations. Moreover, the overwhelming majority of candidate adaptive loci with respect to environmental gradients also had excess ancestry from a parental lineage, implying these loci have facilitated the persistence of the hybrid lineage in an environment unsuitable to at least one parent .

Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Montana, Nebrask↗

USGS2011

Predicting breeding habitat for amphibians: a spatiotemporal analysis across Yellowstone National Park

The ability to predict amphibian breeding across landscapes is important for informing land management decisions and helping biologists better understand and remediate factors contributing to declines in amphibian populations. We built geospatial models of likely breeding habitats for each of four amphibian species that breed in Yellowstone National Park (YNP). We used field data collected in 2000-2002 from 497 sites among 16 basins and predictor variables from geospatial models produced from remotely sensed data (e.g., digital elevation model, complex topographic index, landform data, wetland probabililty, and vegetative cover). Except for 31 sites in one basin that were surveyed in both 2000 and 2002, all sites were surveyed once. We used polytomous regression to build statistical models for each species of amphibian from 1) field survey site data only, 2) field data combined with data from geospatial models, and 3) data from geospatial models only. Based on measures of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) scores, models of the second type best explained likely breeding habitat because they contained the most information (ROC values ranged from 0.70 - 0.88). However, models of the third type could be applied to the entire YNP landscape and produced maps that could be verified with reserve field data. Accuracy rates for models built for single years were highly variable, ranging from 0.30 to 0.78. Accuracy rates for models built with data combined from multiple years were higher and less variable, ranging from 0.60 to 0.80. Combining results from the geospatial multiyear models yielded maps of "core" breeding areas (areas with high probability values for all three years) surrounded by areas that scored high for only one or two years, providing an estimate of variability among years. Such information can highlight landscape options for amphibian conservation. For example, our models identify alternative for areas that could be protected for each species, including 6828-10 764 ha for tiger salamanders; 971-3017 ha for western toads; 4732-16 696 ha for boreal chorus frogs; 4940-19 690 hectares for Columbia spotted frogs.

Yellowstone National Park↗

USGS2010

Simulation of streamflow in the McTier Creek watershed, South Carolina

The McTier Creek watershed is located in the Sand Hills ecoregion of South Carolina and is a small catchment within the Edisto River Basin. Two watershed hydrology models were applied to the McTier Creek watershed as part of a larger scientific investigation to expand the understanding of relations among hydrologic, geochemical, and ecological processes that affect fish-tissue mercury concentrations within the Edisto River Basin. The two models are the topography-based hydrological model (TOPMODEL) and the grid-based mercury model (GBMM). TOPMODEL uses the variable-source area concept for simulating streamflow, and GBMM uses a spatially explicit modified curve-number approach for simulating streamflow. The hydrologic output from TOPMODEL can be used explicitly to simulate the transport of mercury in separate applications, whereas the hydrology output from GBMM is used implicitly in the simulation of mercury fate and transport in GBMM. The modeling efforts were a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Exposure Research Laboratory. Calibrations of TOPMODEL and GBMM were done independently while using the same meteorological data and the same period of record of observed data. Two U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations were available for comparison of observed daily mean flow with simulated daily mean flow-station 02172300, McTier Creek near Monetta, South Carolina, and station 02172305, McTier Creek near New Holland, South Carolina. The period of record at the Monetta gage covers a broad range of hydrologic conditions, including a drought and a significant wet period. Calibrating the models under these extreme conditions along with the normal flow conditions included in the record enhances the robustness of the two models. Several quantitative assessments of the goodness of fit between model simulations and the observed daily mean flows were done. These included the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of model-fit efficiency index, Pearson's correlation coefficient, the root mean square error, the bias, and the mean absolute error. In addition, a number of graphical tools were used to assess how well the models captured the characteristics of the observed data at the Monetta and New Holland streamflow-gaging stations. The graphical tools included temporal plots of simulated and observed daily mean flows, flow-duration curves, single-mass curves, and various residual plots. The results indicated that TOPMODEL and GBMM generally produced simulations that reasonably capture the quantity, variability, and timing of the observed streamflow. For the periods modeled, the total volume of simulated daily mean flows as compared to the total volume of the observed daily mean flow from TOPMODEL was within 1 to 5 percent, and the total volume from GBMM was within 1 to 10 percent. A noticeable characteristic of the simulated hydrographs from both models is the complexity of balancing groundwater recession and flow at the streamgage when flows peak and recede rapidly. However, GBMM results indicate that groundwater recession, which affects the receding limb of the hydrograph, was more difficult to estimate with the spatially explicit curve number approach. Although the purpose of this report is not to directly compare both models, given the characteristics of the McTier Creek watershed and the fact that GBMM uses the spatially explicit curve number approach as compared to the variable-source-area concept in TOPMODEL, GBMM was able to capture the flow characteristics reasonably well.

South Carolina↗

USGS2026

Hakalau’s moving castle: How climate change and restoration are shifting an island fortress for forest birds

Hakalau Forest Unit of the Big Island National Wildlife Refuge Complex (hereafter, Hakalau) protects the largest area with the highest endemic forest bird diversity in Hawaiʻi, including four federally listed species. Hakalau’s higher elevation montane forest provides refuge from avian malaria ( Plasmodium relictum ), a primary driver of Hawaiian honeycreeper extinctions. However, recent declines in Hakalau’s birds at lower elevations could indicate that conditions have become suitable for disease vector Culex quinquefasciatus . We evaluated the statuses of Hakalau’s bird populations in the context of recent climatic changes using new survey data from point-transect distance sampling, producing abundance estimates from 1999 to 2024. We stratified our analysis across four elevation ranges (<1500 m, 1500–1700 m, 1700–1900 m, and >1900 m) and assessed trends for each species using state-space models (SSMs). We constrained population trajectories to be biologically realistic by incorporating population dynamic models within the SSMs. We observed highly species-specific abundance trends below 1500 m, predominantly stable to upward trends within 1500–1700 m, stable trends within 1700–1900 m, and upward trends above 1900 m. Declines in Hawaiʻi ʻamakihi ( Chlorodrepanis v. virens ) and endangered ʻakiapōlāʻau ( Hemignathus wilsoni ) abundance coincided with lengthening warm seasonal temperatures indicative of shrinking disease-free habitat below 1700 m. Above 1900 m, however, increases in nearly all species indicate that reforestation has likely restored disease-free habitat since 1999. While most species were stable to increasing overall, surveillance for mosquitoes and disease at lower elevations, documenting changes in habitat, and continuing bird population monitoring can help to gauge their long-term persistence at Hakalau.

Hawaii↗

USGS2018

Non‐linear effect of sea ice: Spectacled Eider survival declines at both extremes of the ice spectrum

Understanding the relationship between environmental factors and vital rates is an important step in predicting a species’ response to environmental change. Species associated with sea ice are of particular concern because sea ice is projected to decrease rapidly in polar environments with continued levels of greenhouse gas emissions. The relationship between sea ice and the vital rates of the Spectacled Eider, a threatened species that breeds in Alaska and Russia and winters in the Bering Sea, appears to be complex. While severe ice can impede foraging for benthic prey, ice also suppresses wave action and provides a platform on which eiders roost, thereby reducing thermoregulation costs. We analyzed a 23‐year mark‐recapture dataset for Spectacled Eiders nesting on Kigigak Island in western Alaska, and tested survival models containing different ice and weather‐related covariates. We found that much of the variation in eider survival could be explained by the number of days per year with >95% sea ice concentration at the Bering Sea core wintering area. Furthermore, the data supported a quadratic relationship with sea ice rather than a linear one, indicating that intermediate sea ice concentrations were optimal for survival. We then used matrix population models to project population trajectories using General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs of daily sea ice cover. GCMs projected reduced sea ice at the wintering area by year 2100 under a moderated emissions scenario (RCP 4.5) and nearly ice‐free conditions under an unabated emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). Under RCP 4.5, stochastic models projected an increase in population size until 2069 coincident with moderate ice conditions, followed by a decline in population size as ice conditions shifted from intermediate to mostly ice‐free. Under RCP 8.5, eider abundance increased until 2040 and then decreased to near extirpation toward the end of the century as the Bering Sea became ice‐free. Considerable uncertainty around parameter estimates for survival in years with minimal sea ice contributed to variation in stochastic projections of future population size, and this uncertainty could be reduced with additional survival data from low‐ice winters.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Upwelling buffers climate change impacts on coral reefs of the eastern tropical Pacific

Corals of the eastern tropical Pacific live in a marginal and oceanographically dynamic environment. Along the Pacific coast of Panamá, stronger seasonal upwelling in the Gulf of Panamá in the east transitions to weaker upwelling in the Gulf of Chiriquí in the west, resulting in complex regional oceanographic conditions that drive differential coral-reef growth. Over millennial timescales, reefs in the Gulf of Chiriquí recovered more quickly from climatic disturbances compared with reefs in the Gulf of Panamá. In recent decades, corals in the Gulf of Chiriquí have also had higher growth rates than in the Gulf of Panamá. As the ocean continues to warm, however, conditions could shift to favor the growth of corals in the Gulf of Panamá, where upwelling may confer protection from high-temperature anomalies. Here we describe the recent spatial and temporal variability in surface oceanography of nearshore environments in Pacific Panamá and compare those conditions with the dynamics of contemporary coral-reef communities during and after the 2016 coral-bleaching event. Although both gulfs have warmed significantly over the last 150 yr, the annual thermal maximum in the Gulf of Chiriquí is increasing faster, and ocean temperatures there are becoming more variable than in the recent past. In contrast to historical trends, we found that coral cover, coral survival, and coral growth rates were all significantly higher in the Gulf of Panamá. Corals bleached extensively in the Gulf of Chiriquí following the 2015–2016 El Niño event, whereas upwelling in the Gulf of Panamá moderated the high temperatures caused by El Niño, allowing the corals largely to escape thermal stress. As the climate continues to warm, upwelling zones may offer a temporary and localized refuge from the thermal impacts of climate change, while reef growth in the rest of the eastern tropical Pacific continues to decline.

Gulf of Chiriqui, Gulf of Panama↗

USGS2017

Suitability of river delta sediment as proppant, Missouri and Niobrara Rivers, Nebraska and South Dakota, 2015

Sediment management is a challenge faced by reservoir managers who have several potential options, including dredging, for mitigation of storage capacity lost to sedimentation. As sediment is removed from reservoir storage, potential use of the sediment for socioeconomic or ecological benefit could potentially defray some costs of its removal. Rivers that transport a sandy sediment load will deposit the sand load along a reservoir-headwaters reach where the current of the river slackens progressively as its bed approaches and then descends below the reservoir water level. Given a rare combination of factors, a reservoir deposit of alluvial sand has potential to be suitable for use as proppant for hydraulic fracturing in unconventional oil and gas development. In 2015, the U.S. Geological Survey began a program of researching potential sources of proppant sand from reservoirs, with an initial focus on the Missouri River subbasins that receive sand loads from the Nebraska Sand Hills. This report documents the methods and results of assessments of the suitability of river delta sediment as proppant for a pilot study area in the delta headwaters of Lewis and Clark Lake, Nebraska and South Dakota. Results from surface-geophysical surveys of electrical resistivity guided borings to collect 3.7-meter long cores at 25 sites on delta sandbars using the direct-push method to recover duplicate, 3.8-centimeter-diameter cores in April 2015. In addition, the U.S. Geological Survey collected samples of upstream sand sources in the lower Niobrara River valley. At the laboratory, samples were dried, weighed, washed, dried, and weighed again. Exploratory analysis of natural sand for determining its suitability as a proppant involved application of a modified subset of the standard protocols known as American Petroleum Institute (API) Recommended Practice (RP) 19C. The RP19C methods were not intended for exploration-stage evaluation of raw materials. Results for the washed samples are not directly applicable to evaluations of suitability for use as fracture sand because, except for particle-size distribution, the API-recommended practices for assessing proppant properties (sphericity, roundness, bulk density, and crush resistance) require testing of specific proppant size classes. An optical imaging particle-size analyzer was used to make measurements of particle-size distribution and particle shape. Measured samples were sieved to separate the dominant-size fraction, and the separated subsample was further tested for roundness, sphericity, bulk density, and crush resistance. For the bulk washed samples collected from the Missouri River delta, the geometric mean size averaged 0.27 millimeters (mm), 80 percent of the samples were predominantly sand in the API 40/70 size class, and 17 percent were predominantly sand in the API 70/140 size class. Distributions of geometric mean size among the four sandbar complexes were similar, but samples collected from sandbar complex B were slightly coarser sand than those from the other three complexes. The average geometric mean sizes among the four sandbar complexes ranged only from 0.26 to 0.30 mm. For 22 main-stem sampling locations along the lower Niobrara River, geometric mean size averaged 0.26 mm, an average of 61 percent was sand in the API 40/70 size class, and 28 percent was sand in the API 70/140 size class. Average composition for lower Niobrara River samples was 48 percent medium sand, 37 percent fine sand, and about 7 percent each very fine sand and coarse sand fractions. On average, samples were moderately well sorted. Particle shape and strength were assessed for the dominant-size class of each sample. For proppant strength, crush resistance was tested at a predetermined level of stress (34.5 megapascals [MPa], or 5,000 pounds-force per square inch). To meet the API minimum requirement for proppant, after the crush test not more than 10 percent of the tested sample should be finer than the precrush dominant-size class. For particle shape, all samples surpassed the recommended minimum criteria for sphericity and roundness, with most samples being well-rounded. For proppant strength, of 57 crush-resistance tested Missouri River delta samples of 40/70-sized sand, 23 (40 percent) were interpreted as meeting the minimum criterion at 34.5 MPa, or 5,000 pounds-force per square inch. Of 12 tested samples of 70/140-sized sand, 9 (75 percent) of the Missouri River delta samples had less than 10 percent fines by volume following crush testing, achieving the minimum criterion at 34.5 MPa. Crush resistance for delta samples was strongest at sandbar complex A, where 67 percent of tested samples met the 10-percent fines criterion at the 34.5-MPa threshold. This frequency was higher than was indicated by samples from sandbar complexes B, C, and D that had rates of 50, 46, and 42 percent, respectively. The group of sandbar complex A samples also contained the largest percentages of samples dominated by the API 70/140 size class, which overall had a higher percentage of samples meeting the minimum criterion compared to samples dominated by coarser size classes; however, samples from sandbar complex A that had the API 40/70 size class tested also had a higher rate for meeting the minimum criterion (57 percent) than did samples from sandbar complexes B, C, and D (50, 43, and 40 percent, respectively). For samples collected along the lower Niobrara River, of the 25 tested samples of 40/70-sized sand, 9 samples passed the API minimum criterion at 34.5 MPa, but only 3 samples passed the more-stringent criterion of 8 percent postcrush fines. All four tested samples of 70/140 sand passed the minimum criterion at 34.5 MPa, with postcrush fines percentage of at most 4.1 percent. For two reaches of the lower Niobrara River, where hydraulic sorting was energized artificially by the hydraulic head drop at and immediately downstream from Spencer Dam, suitability of channel deposits for potential use as fracture sand was confirmed by test results. All reach A washed samples were well-rounded and had sphericity scores above 0.65, and samples for 80 percent of sampled locations met the crush-resistance criterion at the 34.5-MPa stress level. A conservative lower-bound estimate of sand volume in the reach A deposits was about 86,000 cubic meters. All reach B samples were well-rounded but sphericity averaged 0.63, a little less than the average for upstream reaches A and SP. All four samples tested passed the crush-resistance test at 34.5 MPa. Of three reach B sandbars, two had no more than 3 percent fines after the crush test, surpassing more stringent criteria for crush resistance that accept a maximum of 6 percent fines following the crush test for the API 70/140 size class. Relative to the crush-resistance test results for the API 40/70 size fraction of two samples of mine output from Loup River settling-basin dredge spoils near Genoa, Nebr., four of five reach A sample locations compared favorably. The four samples had increases in fines composition of 1.6–5.9 percentage points, whereas fines in the two mine-output samples increased by an average 6.8 percentage points.

Nebraska, South Dakota↗

USGS2024

Variable climate-growth relationships of quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) among Sky Island mountain ranges in the Great Basin, Nevada, USA

The Great Basin is an arid province located in the interior western United States. The region encompasses millions of hectares and quaking aspen ( Populus tremuloides Michx.) forests comprise a minor portion of the total area. However, montane aspen forests play a disproportionately large role in providing ecosystem services in the region, including water retention, biodiversity, wildlife habitat, livestock forage, and recreational uses. With warming temperatures, increasing evaporative demand, and heightened precipitation variability, the future of aspen has become a critical concern. Using dendroecological approaches, we assessed growth patterns of 20 aspen stands across three geographically isolated “sky island” mountain ranges spanning portions of the north-central Great Basin. We anticipated that the growth of Great Basin aspen would be strongly influenced by regional climatic patterns and largely in synchrony. Results revealed a more complex growth dynamic that varied among mountain ranges and across environmental gradients. In particular, aspen climate-growth relationships in the slightly dryer Ruby Mountains were strongly and positively correlated (r > 0.5) with previous fall to winter moisture availability. The Jarbidge Mountains had a positive but modest relationship with previous fall to winter moisture availability (r > 0.3). Climate-growth response in the Santa Rosa Mountains, the wettest range, showed no significant response to moisture availability during any time period examined but had greater tree-ring growth with warmer May temperatures. Although tree-ring centennial (1910 – 2010) growth trends were positive for all three mountain ranges, only the Santa Rosa Mountains maintained a positive recent growth trend (1970 – 2010). Moreover, distinct temporal shifts in tree growth-climate relationships in each mountain range suggest potentially unique aspen population adaptations to climate variability. For instance, in two of the mountain ranges, there was a shift from positive/neutral to negative growth relationships with temperature starting around the 1963 – 1987 time period, while tree growth also began simultaneously responding more positively to moisture availability. These growth shifts and observed enhanced sensitivities to monthly and seasonal climate variables over time may reflect dynamic tree growth responses caused by ongoing global climate change, but that may be tempered by local or regional factors, such as the relative availability and timing of soil moisture provided by spring snowmelt. A better understanding of biogeographic variation and causality in aspen growth could provide multiple management pathways governed by resilience characteristics in the face of future anthropogenic and climatic threats.

Nevada↗

USGS2021

Movement, recruitment, and abundance relationships of Prairie Chub: An endemic Great Plains cyprinid

The Prairie Chub Macrhybopsis australis is a poorly studied endemic cyprinid of the upper Red River basin and is listed as threatened in Texas and of greatest conservation need in Oklahoma. Hypothesized mechanisms have been proposed to explain the decline of pelagic broadcast spawning minnows including disrupted spawning cues, reduced recruitment, degraded habitat complexity, and reduced water availability and connectivity. Our study objectives were to evaluate Prairie Chub movement, identify spawn timing, and estimate abundance of Prairie Chub at locations in the upper Red River basin. We assessed Prairie Chub movement using a mark-recapture experiment with multiple tag and recapture occasions during late spring through summer (i.e., May-August) of 2019 and 2020. We tagged 5,771 Prairie Chub during summers of 2019 and 2020 and recaptured 213 fish across both summers. We conducted recapture events at approximately 2-week intervals from late May to August of 2019 and 2020. Movement by Prairie Chub was consistently greater than expected under the restricted movement paradigm. The average expected movement distance of the stationary population component was 2 m in 2019 and 3 m in 2020, whereas the expected average movement distance for the mobile population component was 42 m in 2019 and 75 m in 2020. We found no evidence of upstream bias in adult Prairie Chub movement during our study. We processed otoliths for 2,017 age-0 Prairie Chub across 7 rivers and two spawning seasons (i.e., 2019 and 2020). The likelihood of spawning and frequency of observed hatches per spawning date were higher in 2019 compared to 2020. The probability of spawning increased with increasing scaled discharge and average temperature in both 2019 and 2020. Spawning was more likely to occur earlier in the sample season though substantial spatial and temporal variation in spawning success was evident among rivers. The number of successful hatches observed per spawning day was highest in the Pease and Red rivers and lowest in the Salt Fork and South Wichita rivers for both years. We conducted 104 abundance surveys in 2019 and 2020. Our abundance estimates were consistently lower in upstream reaches, higher in downstream reaches, and more variable in mid reaches. We found Prairie Chub abundance was related to several covariates, but abundance did not vary much between years. Overall, adult Prairie Chub abundance was higher in the eastern portion of their range and increased with increasing discharge and turbidity but decreased at higher water temperatures. Adult Prairie Chub abundance had a quadratic relationship with salinity where Prairie Chub density peaked at a salinity of 10 ppt and then declined by nearly 100% when salinities reached 20 ppt. Our juvenile Prairie Chub abundance model had similar but weaker relationships with covariates compared to the adults; however, juvenile abundance was higher in 2020 compared to 2019. Our results indicate conservation of Prairie Chub and ecologically similar species would benefit from maintaining broadly connected habitats (i.e., for movement and drift). We show substantial variation in spawning patterns among rivers that has important implications for developing conservation actions. If agencies are concerned about abundance of Prairie Chub, then management agencies may want to consider the strong relationship with salinity when desalinization projects are proposed. Considering how salinity may narrow the realized niche of Prairie Chub, agencies interested in Prairie Chub persistence may want to prevent large changes in salinity concentrations in the species’ remaining habitat.

Report↗

USGS2017

Refining the cheatgrass–fire cycle in the Great Basin: Precipitation timing and fine fuel composition predict wildfire trends

Larger, more frequent wildfires in arid and semi-arid ecosystems have been associated with invasion by non-native annual grasses, yet a complete understanding of fine fuel development and subsequent wildfire trends is lacking. We investigated the complex relationships among weather, fine fuels, and fire in the Great Basin, USA. We first modeled the annual and time-lagged effects of precipitation and temperature on herbaceous vegetation cover and litter accumulation over a 26-year period in the northern Great Basin. We then modeled how these fine fuels and weather patterns influence subsequent wildfires. We found that cheatgrass cover increased in years with higher precipitation and especially when one of the previous 3 years also was particularly wet. Cover of non-native forbs and native herbs also increased in wet years, but only after several dry years. The area burned by wildfire in a given year was mostly associated with native herb and non-native forb cover, whereas cheatgrass mainly influenced area burned in the form of litter derived from previous years’ growth. Consequently, multiyear weather patterns, including precipitation in the previous 1–3 years, was a strong predictor of wildfire in a given year because of the time needed to develop these fine fuel loads. The strong relationship between precipitation and wildfire allowed us to expand our inference to 10,162 wildfires across the entire Great Basin over a 35-year period from 1980 to 2014. Our results suggest that the region's precipitation pattern of consecutive wet years followed by consecutive dry years results in a cycle of fuel accumulation followed by weather conditions that increase the probability of wildfire events in the year when the cycle transitions from wet to dry. These patterns varied regionally but were strong enough to allow us to model annual wildfire risk across the Great Basin based on precipitation alone.

Idaho↗

USGS2006

Assessing the nutritional stress hypothesis: Relative influence of diet quantity and quality on seabird productivity

Food availability comprises a complex interaction of factors that integrates abundance, taxonomic composition, accessibility, and quality of the prey base. The relationship between food availability and reproductive performance can be assessed via the nutritional stress (NSH) and junk-food (JFH) hypotheses. With respect to reproductive success, NSH posits that a deficiency in any of the aforementioned metrics can have a deleterious effect on a population via poor reproductive success. JFH, a component of NSH, posits specifically that it is a decline in the quality of food (i.e. energy density and lipid content) that leads to poor reproductive success. We assessed each in relation to reproductive success in a piscivorous seabird, the black-legged kittiwake Rissa tridactyla . We measured productivity, taxonomic composition, frequency, size, and quality of meals delivered to nestlings from 1996 to 1999 at 6 colonies in Alaska, USA, 3 each in Prince William Sound and Lower Cook Inlet. Productivity varied widely among colony-years. Pacific herring Clupea pallasi , sand lance Ammodytes hexapterus , and capelin Mallotus villosus comprised ca. 80% of the diet among colony-years, and each was characterized by relatively high energy density. Diet quality for kittiwakes in this region therefore remained uniformly high during this study. Meal delivery rate and meal size were quite variable among colony-years, however, and best explained the variability in productivity. Parent kittiwakes appeared to select prey that were energy dense and that maximized the biomass provisioned to broods. While these results fail to support JFH, they do provide substantial support for NSH.

Marine Ecology Progress Series↗

USGS2019

Interactions of microhabitat and time control grassland bacterial and fungal composition

Dryland grasslands are vast and globally important and, as in all terrestrial ecosystems, soil microbial communities play fundamental roles in regulating dryland ecosystem function. A typical characteristic of drylands is the spatial mosaic of vascular plant cover surrounded by interspace soils, where biological soil crusts (biocrusts)—a complex community of organisms including bacteria, fungi, algae, mosses, and lichens—are common. The implications of this heterogeneity, where plants and biocrust cover co-occur, are often explored in the context of soil fertility and hydrology, but rarely has the impact of these multiple microhabitat types been simultaneously explored to determine the influence on bacterial and fungal communities, key biological players in these ecosystems. Further, our understanding of the temporal dynamics of bacterial and fungal communities in grasslands, and of how these dynamics depend on the microhabitat within the ecosystem, is notably poor. Here we used a temporally and spatially explicit approach to assess bacterial and fungal communities in a grassland on the Colorado Plateau, and to link variation in these communities to edaphic characteristics. We found that microhabitat (e.g., vascular plant rhizosphere, biocrust, and below biocrust) was the strongest driver of differences in bacterial and fungal community richness, diversity, and composition. Microhabitat type also significantly mediated the impact of temporal change in shaping community composition. Taken together, 29% of the variation in bacterial community composition could be explained by microhabitat, date, and microhabitat-by-date interactions, while only 11% of the variation in fungal community composition could be explained by the same factors, suggesting important differences in community assembly processes. Soil microbial communities dictate myriad critical ecosystem functions, thus understanding the factors that control their compostition is crucial to considering and forecasting how terrestrial ecosystems work. Overall, this case study provides insights for future studies on the spatial and temporal dynamics of bacterial and fungal communities in dryland grasslands.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2026

Estimating habitat availability for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead (O. mykiss) to inform reintroduction planning in the middle Snake River basin, USA

Anadromous fishes have been blocked from the middle Snake River basin since the construction of flood control, irrigation, and hydroelectric projects during the 19 th and 20 th centuries, culminating with the construction of Hells Canyon Dam (river kilometer [rkm] 398) in 1967. Seven large watersheds in the blocked area of the basin are under consideration for Pacific salmon reintroduction. The primary objective of this study was to identify and characterize potential reintroduction sites with high-quality rearing and spawning habitat for Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and steelhead ( O. mykiss ) upstream of the Hells Canyon Complex in Idaho, Oregon, and Nevada, USA. We created and tested habitat models to predict rearing presence/absence, rearing abundance, and spawning presence/absence using channel morphology, hydrology, and stream temperature variables obtained from regional peer-reviewed datasets. Habitat models were trained with salmonid presence and abundance records collected in the lower Snake River basin (downstream of Hells Canyon Dam), where anadromous fish can currently access, from 1993 to 2011. Model performance was tested with set-aside data comprised of randomly selected reaches and independent environmental DNA data. An index model was created in the middle Snake River basin for each species by combining results from the habitat models. Modeling covariates differed by species and life stage and included different combinations of August stream temperature, summer flow, channel slope, and quadratic terms for temperature and slope. The habitat models predicted high versus low Chinook salmon and steelhead probability and abundance with 66% to 85% accuracy depending on species and life stage. The index models predicted a total of 2,887 km of Chinook salmon habitat and 2,434 km of steelhead habitat in the blocked area. The three basins in the blocked area with the greatest amount of predicted habitat were the Powder River, South Fork Payette River, and North Fork Payette River for Chinook salmon, and the Powder River, South Fork Boise River, and South Fork Payette River for steelhead. The modeling approach presented here is complementary to other planning efforts for Chinook salmon and steelhead reintroduction in the blocked area of the Snake River basin, and similar approaches may be useful for reintroduction planning in other systems.

Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming↗

USGS2017

Parasite spillover: Indirect effects of invasive Burmese pythons

Identification of the origin of parasites of nonindigenous species (NIS) can be complex. NIS may introduce parasites from their native range and acquire parasites from within their invaded range. Determination of whether parasites are non-native or native can be complicated when parasite genera occur within both the NIS’ native range and its introduced range. We explored potential for spillover and spillback of lung parasites infecting Burmese pythons ( Python bivittatus ) in their invasive range (Florida). We collected 498 indigenous snakes of 26 species and 805 Burmese pythons during 2004–2016 and examined them for lung parasites. We used morphology to identify three genera of pentastome parasites, Raillietiella , a cosmopolitan form, and Porocephalus and Kiricephalus , both New World forms. We sequenced these parasites at one mitochondrial and one nuclear locus and showed that each genus is represented by a single species, R. orientalis , P. crotali , and K. coarctatus . Pythons are host to R. orientalis and P. crotali , but not K. coarctatus ; native snakes are host to all three species. Sequence data show that pythons introduced R. orientalis to North America, where this parasite now infects native snakes. Additionally, our data suggest that pythons are competent hosts to P. crotali , a widespread parasite native to North and South America that was previously hypothesized to infect only viperid snakes. Our results indicate invasive Burmese pythons have affected parasite-host dynamics of native snakes in ways that are consistent with parasite spillover and demonstrate the potential for indirect effects during invasions. Additionally, we show that pythons have acquired a parasite native to their introduced range, which is the initial condition necessary for parasite spillback.

Florida↗

USGS2021

The Chesapeake Bay program modeling system: Overview and recommendations for future development

The Chesapeake Bay is the largest, most productive, and most biologically diverse estuary in the continental United States providing crucial habitat and natural resources for culturally and economically important species. Pressures from human population growth and associated development and agricultural intensification have led to excessive nutrient and sediment inputs entering the Bay, negatively affecting the health of the Bay ecosystem and the economic services it provides. The Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) is a unique program formally created in 1983 as a multi-stakeholder partnership to guide and foster restoration of the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed. Since its inception, the CBP Partnership has been developing, updating, and applying a complex linked modeling system of watershed, airshed, and estuary models as a planning tool to inform strategic management decisions and Bay restoration efforts. This paper provides a description of the 2017 CBP Modeling System and the higher trophic level models developed by the NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office, along with specific recommendations that emerged from a 2018 workshop designed to inform future model development. Recommendations highlight the need for simulation of watershed inputs, conditions, processes, and practices at higher resolution to provide improved information to guide local nutrient and sediment management plans. More explicit and extensive modeling of connectivity between watershed landforms and estuary sub-areas, estuarine hydrodynamics, watershed and estuarine water quality, the estuarine-watershed socioecological system, and living resources will be important to broaden and improve characterization of responses to targeted nutrient and sediment load reductions. Finally, the value and importance of maintaining effective collaborations among jurisdictional managers, scientists, modelers, support staff, and stakeholder communities is emphasized. An open collaborative and transparent process has been a key element of successes to date and is vitally important as the CBP Partnership moves forward with modeling system improvements that help stakeholders evolve new knowledge, improve management strategies, and better communicate outcomes.

Chesapeake Bay estuary and watershed↗

USGS2010

Challenges and opportunities for integrating lake ecosystem modelling approaches

A large number and wide variety of lake ecosystem models have been developed and published during the past four decades. We identify two challenges for making further progress in this field. One such challenge is to avoid developing more models largely following the concept of others (‘ reinventing the wheel ’). The other challenge is to avoid focusing on only one type of model, while ignoring new and diverse approaches that have become available (‘ having tunnel vision ’). In this paper, we aim at improving the awareness of existing models and knowledge of concurrent approaches in lake ecosystem modelling, without covering all possible model tools and avenues. First, we present a broad variety of modelling approaches. To illustrate these approaches, we give brief descriptions of rather arbitrarily selected sets of specific models. We deal with static models (steady state and regression models), complex dynamic models (CAEDYM, CE-QUAL-W2, Delft 3D-ECO, LakeMab, LakeWeb, MyLake, PCLake, PROTECH, SALMO), structurally dynamic models and minimal dynamic models. We also discuss a group of approaches that could all be classified as individual based: super-individual models (Piscator, Charisma), physiologically structured models, stage-structured models and trait-based models. We briefly mention genetic algorithms, neural networks, Kalman filters and fuzzy logic. Thereafter, we zoom in, as an in-depth example, on the multi-decadal development and application of the lake ecosystem model PCLake and related models (PCLake Metamodel, Lake Shira Model, IPH-TRIM3D-PCLake). In the discussion, we argue that while the historical development of each approach and model is understandable given its ‘leading principle’, there are many opportunities for combining approaches. We take the point of view that a single ‘right’ approach does not exist and should not be strived for. Instead, multiple modelling approaches, applied concurrently to a given problem, can help develop an integrative view on the functioning of lake ecosystems. We end with a set of specific recommendations that may be of help in the further development of lake ecosystem models.

Aquatic Ecology↗