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At least 1,387 records · Page 77Linked to original sources
USGS2002

Changes in population and agricultural land in conterminous United States counties, 1790 to 1997

We have developed a data set of changes in population and agricultural land for the conterminous United States at the county level, resulting in more spatial detail than in previously available compilations. The purpose was to provide data on the timing of land conversion as an input to dynamic models of the carbon cycle, although a wide variety of applications exist for the physical, biological, and social sciences. The spatial data represent the appropriate county boundaries for each census year between 1790 and 1997, and the census attributes are attached to the appropriate spatial region. The resulting time series and maps show the history of population (1790-1990) and the history of agricultural development (1850-1997). The patterns of agricultural development reflect the influences of climate, soil productivity, increases in population size, variations in the general economy, and technological changes in the energy, transportation, and agricultural sectors.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗
USGS2016

The Pilot Valley shoreline: An early record of Lake Bonneville dynamics

The Pilot Valley shoreline is named for distinctive gravel beaches on the eastern, northern, and western sides of Pilot Valley playa, Utah. The shoreline has been identified across the Bonneville basin where it is characterized by one to three beach crests between ~ 1305 and 1309 m elevation, all overlain by deep-water marl of Lake Bonneville. It thus represents the lowest and earliest recognized shoreline of Lake Bonneville. Features of the shoreline indicate that both high wave energy and high stream sediment discharge contributed to shoreline development. Basin hypsometry did not play a role in the development of the shoreline, which must have been caused by a combination of climatically driven hydrologic and storm factors, such as reduced precipitation that stabilized lake level and increase in storm-driven wave energy. The Pilot Valley shoreline is poorly dated at about 30 ka. If it is somewhat older, correlation with Greenland Interstadial 5.1 at 30.8–30.6 ka could explain the stabilization of lake level.

Idaho, Nevada, Utah↗
USGS2012

Biotic, water-quality, and hydrologic metrics calculated for the analysis of temporal trends in National Water Quality Assessment Program Data in the Western United States

The U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program was established by Congress in 1991 to collect long-term, nationally consistent information on the quality of the Nation's streams and groundwater. The NAWQA Program utilizes interdisciplinary and dynamic studies that link the chemical and physical conditions of streams (such as flow and habitat) with ecosystem health and the biologic condition of algae, aquatic invertebrates, and fish communities. This report presents metrics derived from NAWQA data and the U.S. Geological Survey streamgaging network for sampling sites in the Western United States, as well as associated chemical, habitat, and streamflow properties. The metrics characterize the conditions of algae, aquatic invertebrates, and fish. In addition, we have compiled climate records and basin characteristics related to the NAWQA sampling sites. The calculated metrics and compiled data can be used to analyze ecohydrologic trends over time.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2014

Evaluating coastal landscape response to sea-level rise in the northeastern United States: approach and methods

The U.S. Geological Survey is examining effects of future sea-level rise on the coastal landscape from Maine to Virginia by producing spatially explicit, probabilistic predictions using sea-level projections, vertical land movement rates (due to isostacy), elevation data, and land-cover data. Sea-level-rise scenarios used as model inputs are generated by using multiple sources of information, including Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models following representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. A Bayesian network is used to develop a predictive coastal response model that integrates the sea-level, elevation, and land-cover data with assigned probabilities that account for interactions with coastal geomorphology as well as the corresponding ecological and societal systems it supports. The effects of sea-level rise are presented as (1) level of landscape submergence and (2) coastal response type characterized as either static (that is, inundation) or dynamic (that is, landform or landscape change). Results are produced at a spatial scale of 30 meters for four decades (the 2020s, 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). The probabilistic predictions can be applied to landscape management decisions based on sea-level-rise effects as well as on assessments of the prediction uncertainty and need for improved data or fundamental understanding. This report describes the methods used to produce predictions, including information on input datasets; the modeling approach; model outputs; data-quality-control procedures; and information on how to access the data and metadata online.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2024

Declining groundwater storage expected to amplify mountain streamflow reductions in a warmer world

Groundwater interactions with mountain streams are often simplified in model projections, potentially leading to inaccurate estimates of streamflow response to climate change. Here, using a high-resolution, integrated hydrological model extending 400 m into the subsurface, we find groundwater an important and stable source of historical streamflow in a mountainous watershed of the Colorado River. In a warmer climate, increased forest water use is predicted to reduce groundwater recharge resulting in groundwater storage loss. Losses are expected to be most severe during dry years and cannot recover to historical levels even during simulated wet periods. Groundwater depletion substantially reduces annual streamflow with intermittent conditions predicted when precipitation is low. Expanding results across the region suggests groundwater declines will be highest in the Colorado Headwater and Gunnison basins. Our research highlights the tight coupling of vegetation and groundwater dynamics and that excluding explicit groundwater response to warming may underestimate future reductions in mountain streamflow.

Nature Water↗
USGS1995

Evaluating growth of the Porcupine Caribou Herd using a stochastic model

Estimates of the relative effects of demographic parameters on population rates of change, and of the level of natural variation in these parameters, are necessary to address potential effects of perturbations on populations. We used a stochastic model, based on survival and reproduction estimates of the Porcupine Caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) Herd (PCH), during 1983-89 and 1989-92 to obtain distributions of potential population rates of change (r). The distribution of r produced by 1,000 trajectories of our simulation model (1983-89, r̄ = 0.013; 1989-92, r̄ = 0.003) encompassed the rate of increase calculated from an independent series of photo-survey data over the same years (1983-89, r = 0.048; 1989-92, r = -0.035). Changes in adult female survival had the largest effect on r, followed by changes in calf survival. We hypothesized that petroleum development on calving grounds, or changes in calving and post-calving habitats due to global climate change, would affect model input parameters. A decline in annual adult female survival from 0.871 to 0.847, or a decline in annual calf survival from 0.518 to 0.472, would be sufficient to cause a declining population, if all other input estimates remained the same. We then used these lower survival rates, in conjunction with our estimated amount of among-year variation, to determine a range of resulting population trajectories. Stochastic models can be used to better understand dynamics of populations, optimize sampling investment, and evaluate potential effects of various factors on population growth.

Alaska↗
USGS2011

Amphibian monitoring in the Atchafalaya Basin

Amphibians are a diverse group of animals that includes frogs, toads, and salamanders. They are adapted to living in a variety of habitats, but most require water for at least one life stage. Amphibians have recently become a worldwide conservation concern because of declines and extinctions even in remote protected areas previously thought to be safe from the pressures of habitat loss and degradation. Amphibians are an important part of ecosystem dynamics because they can be quite abundant and serve both as a predator of smaller organisms and as prey to a suite of vertebrate predators. Their permeable skin and aquatic life history also make them useful as indicators of ecosystem health. Since 2002, the U.S. Geological Survey has been studying the frog and toad species inhabiting the Atchafalaya Basin to monitor for population declines and to better understand how the species are potentially affected by disease, environmental contaminants, and climate change.

Louisiana↗
USGS1992

Study of salt transport processes in Delaware Bay

The study described here is a subset of a broader climate-related study, and is focused primarily on salinity intrusion into Delaware Bay and River. Given changes in freshwater discharge into the Delaware River as determined from the larger study, and given probable sea level rise estimates, the purpose here is to calculate the distribution of salinity within Delaware Bay and River. The approach adopted for this study is composed of two parts: an analysis of existing physical data in order to derive a basic understanding of the salt dynamics, and numerical simulation of future conditions based on this analysis. There are two important constraints in the model used: it must resolve the spatial scales important to the salt dynamics, and it must be sufficiently efficient to allow extensive sensitivity studies. This has led to the development of a 3D model that uses harmonic decomposition in time and irregular finite elements in space. All nonlinear terms are retained in the governing equations, including quadratic bottom stress, advection, and wave transport (continuity nonlinearity). These equations are coupled to the advection-diffusion equation for salt so that density gradient forcing is included in the momentum equations. Although this study is still in progress, the model has reproduced sea level variations and the 3D structure of tidal and residual currents very well. In addition, the study has addressed the effects of a 1-meter rise in mean sea level on hydrodynamics of the study area. Current work is focused on salt dynamics.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2002

Monitoring dust storms and mapping landscape vulnerability to wind erosion using satellite and ground-based digital images

Wind-induced dust emission in the southwestern United States is important regionally because of its impact on human health and safety and its influence on ecosystem dynamics. Factors that control dust emission include wind velocity, sediment availability, and surface conditions (e.g., vegetation type and degree of cover, surface crusts and armoring, and soil moisture - Gillette and Passi, 1988; Gillette and Hanson 1989; Marticorena and others, 1997). Emission of dust from the land surface is a process of degradation that depletes fine-grained minerals needed for optimum vegetation growth, creates potentially hazardous air quality for humans on a local and regional scale, and can affect climate on a regional and global scale. Future climatic change may lead to increased aridification of southwestern deserts, reducing protective vegetation and enhancing dust emissions, thereby increasing the impacts of dust in this region. It is currently not well understood how climate change in the Southwest will affect dust emission and, in turn, how dust emission will affect climate and human health. As part of a study of landscape vulnerability to wind erosion and the potential impacts of dust, we are investigating remotely sensed satellite, airborne, and ground-based image data to determine their ability to detect and monitor active dust storms, as well as to map areas vulnerable to wind erosion. A main objective has been to investigate the use of high temporal resolution digital images collected by satellite and a long-term, ground-based digital camera station, along with wind data collected at our field sites, to detect, monitor, and analyze the location, size, frequency, duration, and transport patterns of dust storms in the Mojave Desert of the southwestern United States. Generally, many current methods and instruments are not developed to the level required to routinely detect and monitor dust storms or to develop models that accurately predict total dust flux and emission rates. Improving these capabilities is critical to generating baseline datasets for assessments of landscape vulnerability to future climate change. On going modeling efforts are attempting to identify meteorological parameters and soil surface roughness parameters needed to predict the vulnerability of various geomorphic substrates to wind erosion. Datasets to calibrate model results are difficult to collect and typically not available. Results of our studies, incorporating digital image maps and new methods using remotely sensed images to identify and monitor dust sources, will be useful for the calibration of dust-emission models of the Mojave Desert and other arid environments. At the same time, we are exploring new methods to map the amount, sizes, and spatial distribution of particles at the surface to enable detailed wind-erosion vulnerability mapping at a regional scale.

California↗
USGS2021

Climatic controls on soil carbon accumulation and loss in a dryland ecosystems

Arid and semiarid ecosystems drive year-to-year variability in the strength of the terrestrial carbon (C) sink, yet there is uncertainty about how soil C gains and losses contribute to this variation. To address this knowledge gap, we embedded C-depleted soil mesocosms, containing litter or biocrust C inputs, within an in situ dryland ecosystem warming experiment. Over the course of one year, changes in microbial biomass and total soil organic C pools were monitored alongside hourly measurements of soil CO 2 flux. We also developed a biogeochemical model to explore the mechanisms that gave rise to observed soil C dynamics. Field data and model simulations demonstrated that water exerted much stronger control on soil biogeochemistry than temperature, with precipitation events triggering large CO 2 pulses and transport of litter- and biocrust-derived C into the soil profile. We expected leaching of organic matter would result in steady accumulation of C within the mineral soil over time. Instead, the size of the total organic C pool fluctuated throughout the year, largely in response to microbial growth: increases in the size of microbial biomass were negatively correlated with the quantity of C residing in the top 2 cm, where most biogeochemical changes were observed. Our data and models suggest that microbial responses to precipitation events trigger rapid metabolism of dissolved organic C inputs, which strongly limit accumulation of autotroph-derived C belowground. Accordingly, changes in the magnitude and/or frequency of precipitation events in this dryland ecosystem could have profound impacts on the strength of the soil C sink.

Utah↗
USGS2021

Valleys of fire: Historical fire regimes of forest-grassland ecotones across the montane landscape of the Valles Caldera National Preserve, New Mexico, USA

Context Montane grasslands and forest-grassland ecotones are unique and dynamic components of many landscapes, but the processes that regulate their dynamics are difficult to observe over ecologically relevant time spans. Objectives We aimed to demonstrate the efficacy of using grassland-forest ecotone trees to reconstruct spatial and temporal properties of the historical fire regime in a complex landscape of montane forests and adjacent grasslands. Methods We sampled and crossdated fire-scarred trees along ecotones and compared variations in historical fire occurrence within and among nine adjoining valle basins in a 10,158 ha landscape. We analyzed fire year extensiveness, climate regulation, and the occurrence of consecutive fire years. Results The resulting tree-ring record covers 1240–2005 AD, with 296 trees recording 125 replicated fire years during the analysis period 1601–1902 AD . Mean fire intervals for all events recorded on two or more trees ranged from 4.7 to 13.6 years in individual valles , and a mean of 2.4 ± 1.7 (SD) years at the landscape scale. Between 1660 and 1902, extensive fires occurring in six or more valles occurred 15 times, on average at ~ 17-year intervals; 29 moderately widespread fires (3–5 valles ) occurred during this period, at 8.7 year intervals on average. Widespread events occurred in years with a significantly lower Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) preceded by years of significantly positive PDSI, indicating conditions favorable for fine fuel production. Spatial reconstruction of fire extent revealed multiple occurrences of consecutive-year fires burning non-overlapping areas, associated with persistent low PDSI anomalies preceded by positive conditions in antecedent years. Conclusions A landscape spatiotemporal approach to reconstructing fire regimes of montane forest-grassland complexes provides a valuable baseline for guiding prescribed and natural fire management at large spatial scales.

New Mexico↗
USGS2025

Spatial regimes provide ample early warning of tipping points

Accelerating global change is a hallmark of the Anthropocene, and the interaction of rapid change in climate, land use and land cover makes understanding the response of social-ecological systems to global change difficult to predict. Global change directly and indirectly affects both social-ecological systems and the landscapes in which they are embedded. Spatial heterogeneity in the location, manifestation of, and responses to global change makes spatially explicit approaches to management and conservation necessary. Spatial regimes, a concept derived from resilience theory, are at the forefront of attempts to operationalize and quantify resilience of dynamic landscapes. Spatial regimes are defined as dynamic landscape units that are shaped by a self-organizing set of processes and structures. They have identifiable spatial extents with discrete boundaries at a given scale that exhibit relative homogeneity in process, structure and composition maintained by feedback mechanisms. Here, we describe the concept of, evidence for, and applications of spatial regimes and how spatial regimes relate to scale and telecoupling of change across social-ecological systems. We emphasize the utility of the concept as an early warning of regime change, one that can provide ample early warning. We discuss methods that can be used to detect spatial regimes and uses of the concept for understanding and managing the spatio-temporal response of social-ecological systems to global change.

Advances in Ecological Research↗
USGS2026

Biocrust and seed placement influence emergence rates of perennial grass Elymus elymoides across five North American deserts

1. Dryland vascular plant emergence is often limited by water availability especially with projected climate and precipitation changes. Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) can promote water retention and nutrient availability that benefit germination, and emergence yet can also act as a surface barrier preventing critical seed soil contact and hindering emergence. Alongside these factors, dryland fire frequency has increased with the inclusion of invasive species and vegetation structural changes. With enhanced continuous fine fuel distribution there is a high potential to disrupt biocrust-plant interactions and influence associated management actions. 2. This study explores the dynamic relationship between biocrusts and fire-related heating effects on seedling emergence across five North American deserts: the Chihuahuan Desert, Colorado Plateau, Great Basin, Mojave Desert and Sonoran Desert. We conducted a greenhouse-based seedling emergence experiment using Elymus elymoides (bottlebrush squirreltail), a common perennial grass, with biocrust and bare soil mesocosms in which half were heated to mimic the effects of wildfire temperature. 3. The variables that had the greatest influence on germination rate and germination timing were the presence of biocrust and seed placement (on top of vs within the biocrust/soil matrix). Emergence rate was greatest atop bare soil followed by seeds inserted into biocrust. Emergence timing was faster with biocrust present, but only when seeds were inserted into it. Desert origin of biocrust and soil collection also influenced germination where the probability of any one seed emerging was highest in the Chihuahuan and Mojave desert sites relative to the Sonoran desert site which showed the lowest probability. Heating had mixed effects whereby it increased the likelihood of emergence but did not affect the overall rate or timing. 4. Synthesis and applications . This study underscores the importance of healthy and impaired biocrusts in dryland systems and suggests ways in which the combination of biocrust and seed placement can influence plant establishment, in addition to providing insight into seeding strategies for managers and restoration practitioners working in dryland sites.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico↗
USGS2021

Contrasting geographic patterns of ignition probability and burn severity in the Mojave Desert

The extent and frequency of fire has increased in many arid systems over the last century, with a large proportion of area in some regions undergoing transitions to novel conditions. Portions of the Mojave Desert in southwestern North America have undergone such transitions, most often from woody to herbaceous-dominated systems. These transitions have often been attributed to the proliferation of invasive annual grasses that promote more frequent fire, but recent evidence indicates that transitions can also occur independent of fire frequency if burn severity is high. In addition, high probability of ignition (i.e., potentially high fire frequency) and high burn severity may not always be geographically related. Therefore, our goals were to: (1) map potential burn severity, fire frequency, and probability of ignition across the Mojave; and, (2) evaluate spatial association among predicted burn severity, fire frequency and probability of ignition. We first mapped perimeters of 250 wildfires > 405 ha that occurred from 1972 to 2010, then extracted data on fire frequency (number of times burned from 1972 to 2010), burn severity (the difference Normalized Burn Ratio), and 15 predictor variables representing physiography, climate, ignition, and vegetation. Maximum entropy was used to predict probability of ignition and Random Forest models were used to predict dNBR and fire frequency. Areas with high burn severity and high ignition probability had opposite spatial trends; areas with high burn severity were predicted to predominantly be in the northwest part of the region whereas areas with high ignition probability were predicted to be in the northeast. The models indicate the existence of a number of spatially structured but temporally dynamic fire regimes throughout the Mojave Desert. Two prevalent and ecologically significant regimes include one with frequent fires of low to moderate severity and another with infrequent fire of high severity. Areas with high fire frequency are currently limited in extent (<1% total area). However, cover of invasive grasses can remain high decades after a burn of high or moderate severity, so grass-fire cycles could develop in areas where there may be expectations of infrequent fire as well as those with relatively high fire frequency.

Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah↗
USGS2023

Multi-proxy record of ocean-climate variability during the last 2 millennia on the Mackenzie Shelf, Beaufort Sea

A 2,000 year-long oceanographic history, in sub-centennial resolution, from a Canadian Beaufort Sea continental shelf site (60meters water depth) near the Mackenzie River outlet is reconstructed from ostracode and foraminifera faunal assemblages, shell stable isotopes (delta 18O, delta 13C) and sediment biogenic silica. The chronology of three sediment cores making up the composite section was established using 137Cs and 210Pb dating for the most recent 150 years and combined with linear interpolation of radiocarbon dates from bivalve shells and foraminifera tests.Continuous centimeter-sampling of the multicore and high-resolution sampling of a gravity and piston core yielded a time-averaged faunal record of every approximately 40 years from 0 to 1850 CE and every approximately 24 years from 1850 to 2013 CE. Proxy records were consistent with temperature oscillations and related changes in organic carbon cycling associated with the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). Abundance changes in dominant microfossil species, such as the ostracode Paracyprideis pseudopunctillata and agglutinated foraminifers Spiroplectammina biformis and S. earlandi, are used as indicators of less saline, and possibly corrosive/turbid bottom conditions associated with the MCA (approximately 800 to 1200 CE) and the most recent approximately 60 years (1950–2013). During these periods, pronounced fluctuations in these species suggest that prolonged seasonal sea-ice melting, changes in riverine inputs and sediment dynamics affected the benthic environment. Taxa analyzed for stable oxygen isotope composition of carbonates show the lowest delta 18O values during intervals within the MCA and the highest during the late LIA, which is consistent with a 1 degree to 2 degree C cooling of bottom waters. Faunal and isotopic changes during the cooler LIA (1300 to 1850 CE) are most apparent at approximately 1500 to 1850 CE and are particularly pronounced during 1850 to approximately 1900 CE, with an approximate 0.5 per mil increase in delta 18O values of carbonates from median values in the analyzed taxa. This very cold 50-year period suggests that enhanced summer sea ice suppressed productivity,which is indicated by low sediment biogenic silica values and lower delta 13C values in analyzed species. From 1900CE to present, declines in calcareous faunal assemblages and changes in dominant species (Cassidulina reniforme and P. pseudopunctillata) are associated with less hospitable bottom waters, indicated by a peak in agglutinated foraminifera from 1950 to 1990 CE.

Beaufort Sea, Mackenzie Shelf↗
USGS2021

The importance of wetland carbon dynamics to society: Insight from the Second State of the Carbon Cycle Science Report

The Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR2) culminated in 19 chapters that spanned all North American sectors – from Energy Systems to Agriculture and Land Use – known to be important for understanding carbon (C) cycling and accounting. Wetlands, both inland and coastal, were found to be significant components of C fluxes along the terrestrial to aquatic hydrologic continuum. In this chapter, we synthesize the role of wetlands in the overall C footprint of North America (from Canada to Mexico) as one metric of the societal values placed on these terrestrial-aquatic interfaces. We also summarize the effects of management activities and climate change on the wetland C cycle and give some perspectives on the current and future importance of wetlands to society.

Geophysical Monograph Series↗
USGS2025

Using imaging spectroscopy and elevation in machine learning to estimate soil salinity in intermittently tidal wetlands

Coastal soil salinization patterns are changing due to drought, sea level rise (SLR), and changing freshwater inflow. These changes are expected to impact coastal wetland plant health and ecosystem function, such as changes to biomass and productivity. These impacts have led to greater interest in how we monitor soil salinization across spatial and temporal scales. Remote sensing is a promising tool for estimating soil salinity at the spatial scales required for decision making by land managers. However, the development of a remote sensing estimation approach for wetland soil salinity must account for two factors: (1) the high spatial and temporal heterogeneity of coastal wetlands and (2) the fact that soil salinity is the result of multiple historical land use, hydrological, and geomorphic processes. In spring 2022, a combined airborne-field campaign, known as SHIFT, collected a weekly time series of airborne visible to shortwave infrared (VSWIR) image spectroscopy data. This dataset provides a unique opportunity to assess the application of fine spatial (5 m) and temporal (weekly) resolution VSWIR data to estimate root zone soil salinity; when combined with environmental variables such as elevation, these data can account for some of these factors. In this study, we utilized VSWIR and elevation datasets in a random forest regression to predict and map soil salinity in an intermittently tidal estuary, Devereux Slough, located in Santa Barbara County, California. The final model combined spectral indices with elevation to better capture soil salinity dynamics despite lower correlation ( r = 0.85) than solely using elevation ( r = 0.92). This research demonstrates the utility of remote sensing datasets, namely, elevation and the modified Anthocyanin Reflectance Index (mARI), for predicting root zone soil salinity in intermittently tidal coastal wetlands. These findings are an important step in advancing coastal remote sensing by creating a gridded salinity dataset that can be used for salinity monitoring and other coastal applications, such as modeling change in vegetation communities or ecosystems facing the impacts of climatic variability and change.

California↗
USGS2002

Arctic and boreal ecosystems of western North America as components of the climate system

Synthesis of results from several Arctic and boreal research programmes provides evidence for the strong role of high-latitude ecosystems in the climate system. Average surface air temperature has increased 0.3??C per decade during the twentieth century in the western North American Arctic and boreal forest zones. Precipitation has also increased, but changes in soil moisture are uncertain. Disturbance rates have increased in the boreal forest; for example, there has been a doubling of the area burned in North America in the past 20 years. The disturbance regime in tundra may not have changed. Tundra has a 3-6-fold higher winter albedo than boreal forest, but summer albedo and energy partitioning differ more strongly among ecosystems within either tundra or boreal forest than between these two biomes. This indicates a need to improve our understanding of vegetation dynamics within, as well as between, biomes. If regional surface warming were to continue, changes in albedo and energy absorption would likely act as a positive feedback to regional warming due to earlier melting of snow and, over the long term, the northward movement of treeline. Surface drying and a change in dominance from mosses to vascular plants would also enhance sensible heat flux and regional warming in tundra. In the boreal forest of western North America, deciduous forests have twice the albedo of conifer forests in both winter and summer, 50-80% higher evapotranspiration, and therefore only 30-50% of the sensible heat flux of conifers in summer. Therefore, a warming-induced increase in fire frequency that increased the proportion of deciduous forests in the landscape, would act as a negative feedback to regional warming. Changes in thermokarst and the aerial extent of wetlands, lakes, and ponds would alter high-latitude methane flux. There is currently a wide discrepancy among estimates of the size and direction of CO2 flux between high-latitude ecosystems and the atmosphere. These discrepancies relate more strongly to the approach and assumptions for extrapolation than to inconsistencies in the underlying data. Inverse modelling from atmospheric CO2 concentrations suggests that high latitudes are neutral or net sinks for atmospheric CO2, whereas field measurements suggest that high latitudes are neutral or a net CO2 source. Both approaches rely on assumptions that are difficult to verify. The most parsimonious explanation of the available data is that drying in tundra and disturbance in boreal forest enhance CO2 efflux. Nevertheless, many areas of both tundra and boreal forests remain net sinks due to regional variation in climate and local variation in topographically determined soil moisture. Improved understanding of the role of high-latitude ecosystems in the climate system requires a concerted research effort that focuses on geographical variation in the processes controlling land-atmosphere exchange, species composition, and ecosystem structure. Future studies must be conducted over a long enough time-period to detect and quantify ecosystem feedbacks.

Global Change Biology↗