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At least 1,387 records · Page 77Linked to original sources
USGS2015

A Green's function approach for assessing the thermal disturbance caused by drilling deep boreholes in rock or ice

A knowledge of subsurface temperatures in sedimentary basins, fault zones, volcanic environments and polar ice sheets is of interest for a wide variety of geophysical applications. However, the process of drilling deep boreholes in these environments to provide access for temperature and other measurements invariably disturbs the temperature field around a newly created borehole. Although this disturbance dissipates over time, most temperature measurements are made while the temperature field is still disturbed. Thus, the measurements must be ‘corrected’ for the drilling-disturbance effect if the undisturbed temperature field is to be determined. This paper provides compact analytical solutions for the thermal drilling disturbance based on 1-D (radial) and 2-D (radial and depth) Green's functions (GFs) in cylindrical coordinates. Solutions are developed for three types of boundary conditions (BCs) at the borehole wall: (1) prescribed temperature, (2) prescribed heat flux and (3) a prescribed convective condition. The BC at the borehole wall is allowed to vary both with depth and time. Inclusion of the depth dimension in the 2-D solution allows vertical heat-transfer effects to be quantified in situations where they are potentially important, that is, near the earth's surface, at the bottom of a well and when considering finite-drilling rates. The 2-D solution also includes a radial- and time-dependent BC at the earth's surface to assess the impact of drilling-related infrastructure (drilling pads, mud pits, permanent shelters) on the subsurface temperature field. Latent-heat effects due to the melting and subsequent refreezing of interstitial ice while drilling a borehole through ice-rich permafrost can be included in the GF solution as a moving-plane heat source (or sink) located at the solid–liquid interface. Synthetic examples are provided illustrating the 1-D and 2-D GF solutions. The flexibility of the approach allows the investigation of thermal drilling effects in rock or ice for a wide variety of drilling technologies. Numerical values for the required radial GFs G R are available through the Advanced Cooperative Arctic Data and Information Service at doi:10.5065/D64F1NS6.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2020

The freshwater mysid Mysis diluviana (Audzijonyte and Väinölä, 2005) (Mysida: Mysidae) consumes detritus in the presence of Daphnia (Cladocera: Daphniidae)

Freshwater mysids of the Mysis relicta group are omnivorous macroinvertebrates that form an important link between fishes and lower trophic levels in many north temperate to Arctic lakes, where they exhibit diel vertical migration (DVM) to exploit subsurface food-rich layers at night. Benthic food resources have been assumed to be less important for mysid diets than pelagic zooplankton. Studies have nevertheless indicated that mysids consume benthic sedimented detritus, calling this assumption into question. We conducted a food-choice experiment to evaluate the feeding preferences of Mysis diluviana (Audzijonyte & Vainola, 2005) by presenting field-caught specimens in individual foraging arenas with multiple choices of food. Experimental food treatments included a preferred pelagic prey (Daphnia), a presumed less desirable benthic resource (detritus), and a combination of both. We hypothesized that M. diluviana 1) prefers Daphnia over detritus and consumes only Daphnia in combination treatments, and 2) would not consume detritus except when detritus was the only food source available. Contrary to our hypothesis, M. diluviana readily consumed detritus in the presence of Daphnia. M. diluviana unexpectedly consumed more individuals of Daphnia in the presence rather than in the absence of detritus. Our results demonstrate that mysids take advantage of benthic food resources even in the presence of a presumably preferred zooplankton prey, calling to question the long-held assumption that benthic resources are unimportant when considering the trophic role of freshwater mysids of the M. relicta group.

Journal of Crustacean Biology↗
USGS2020

Panmixia in a sea ice-associated marine mammal: evaluating genetic structure of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) at multiple spatial scales

The kin structure of a species at relatively fine spatial scales impacts broad-scale patterns in genetic structure at the population level. However, kin structure rarely has been elucidated for migratory marine mammals. The Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ) exhibits migratory behavior linked to seasonal patterns in sea ice dynamics. Consequently, information on the spatial genetic structure of the subspecies, including kin structure, could aid wildlife managers in designing future studies to evaluate the impacts of sea ice loss on the subspecies. We sampled 8,303 individual walruses over a 5-year period and used 114 single-nucleotide polymorphisms to examine both broad-scale patterns in genetic structure and fine-scale patterns in relatedness. We did not detect any evidence of genetic structure at broad spatial scales, with low F ST values (≤ 0.001) across all pairs of putative aggregations. To evaluate kin structure at fine spatial scales, we defined a walrus group as a cluster of resting individuals that were less than one walrus body length apart. We found weak evidence of kin structure at fine spatial scales, with 3.72% of groups exhibiting mean relatedness values greater than expected by chance, and a significantly higher overall observed mean value of relatedness within groups than expected by chance. Thus, the high spatiotemporal variation in the distribution of resources in the Pacific Arctic environment likely has favored a gregarious social system in Pacific walruses, with unrelated animals forming temporary associations.

Bering Sea↗
USGS2024

The post-emergence period for denning polar bears: Phenology and influence on cub survival

Among polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ), only parturient females den for extended periods, emerging from maternal dens in spring after having substantially depleted their energy reserves during a fast that can exceed 8 months. Although den emergence coincides with a period of increasing prey availability, polar bears typically do not depart immediately to hunt, but instead remain at the den for up to a month. This delay suggests that there are likely adaptive advantages to remaining at the den between emergence and departure, but the influence of the timing and duration of this post-emergence period on cub survival has not been evaluated previously. We used temperature and location data from 70 denning bears collared within the Southern Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Sea subpopulations to estimate the phenology of the post-emergence period. We evaluated the influence of various spatial and temporal features on duration of the post-emergence period and evaluated the potential influence of post-emergence duration on litter survival early in the spring following denning. For dens that likely contained viable cubs at emergence ( n = 56), mean den emergence occurred on 16 March (SE = 1.4 days) and mean departure on 24 March (SE = 1.6 days), with dates typically occurring later in the Chukchi Sea relative to Southern Beaufort Sea and on land relative to sea ice. Mean duration of the post-emergence period was 7.9 days (SE = 1.4) for bears that were observed with cubs later in the spring, which was over 4 times longer than duration of those observed without cubs (1.9 days). Litter survival in the spring following denning ( n = 31 dens) increased from 0.5 to 0.9 when duration of the post-emergence period increased by ~4 days and other variables were held at mean values. Our limited sample size and inability to verify cub presence at emergence suggests that future research is merited to improve our understanding of this relationship. Nonetheless, our results highlight the importance of the post-emergence period in contributing to reproductive success and can assist managers in developing conservation and mitigation strategies in denning areas, which will be increasingly important as human activities expand in the Arctic.

Journal of Mammalogy↗
USGS2018

Den phenology and reproductive success of polar bears in a changing climate

Synchrony between reproduction and food availability is important in mammals due to the high energetic costs of gestation and lactation. Female polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) must accumulate sufficient energy reserves during spring through autumn to produce and nurse cubs during the winter months in snow dens. Adequate time in a den is important to optimize cub development for withstanding harsh Arctic spring conditions and to synchronize emergence with peak prey availability, which occurs in May and June. During 1985–2013, den phenology was investigated using temperature data collected on satellite collars deployed on adult female polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea (SB) and Chukchi Sea (CS). We examined relationships between den phenology, reproductive success (cub production and post-emergence survival), and environmental factors (weather and sea-ice conditions). Females observed with cubs emerged later and remained in dens on average 15.0 ± 7.6 ( SE ) days longer than females seen without cubs. Females occupying land-based dens, where estimated snowfall was greater, had higher reproductive success. Recently, female polar bears have increased land-based denning in the SB. Females in CS emerged later from dens than SB females, consistent with better female body condition and higher cub survival in the CS. During years with a greater area of autumn sea ice, reproductive success was higher at land-based versus sea-ice dens, suggesting continued decline in sea ice could negatively affect recruitment. However, further research is needed to better understand mechanistic relationships. Because females emerging later from dens had higher reproductive success, den duration could be a useful metric in population monitoring.

Journal of Mammalogy↗
USGS2023

Nest traits and major flooding events influence nest survival of Emperor Geese while regional environmental variation linked to climate does not

The reproductive ecology of geese that breed in the Arctic and subarctic is likely susceptible to the effects of climate change, which is projected to alter the environmental conditions of northern latitudes. Nest survival is an important component of productivity in geese; however, the effects of regional environmental conditions on nest survival are not well understood for some species, including the Emperor Goose ( Anser canagicus ), a species of conservation concern that is endemic to the Bering Sea region. We estimated nest survival and examined how indices of regional environmental conditions, nest traits (nest age, initiation date, and maximum number of eggs in the nest), and researcher disturbance influenced daily survival probability (DSP) of Emperor Goose nests using hierarchical models and 24 years of nest monitoring data (1994–2017) from the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta (Y–K Delta) in western Alaska. Our results indicate that overall nest survival was generally high (µ = 0.766, 95% CRI: 0.655–0.849) and ranged from 0.327 (95% CRI: 0.176–0.482) in 2013 to 0.905 (95% CRI: 0.839–0.953) in 1995. We found that DSPs of nests were influenced by nest traits, negatively influenced by major tidal flooding events and by researcher disturbance, but were not influenced by regional indices of spring timing, temperature and precipitation during nesting, or fox and vole abundance on the Y–K Delta. However, the number of nests found each year was negatively related to our index of fox abundance, suggesting nests that failed as a result of fox predation may have never been discovered due to our limited nest-searching efforts during egg laying. Our results suggest that regional environmental variation had minimal influence on the nest survival of Emperor Geese, although major flooding events were important. Nevertheless, we suspect that within-year variation in local weather conditions and local abundance of predators and alternative prey may be important and should be considered in future studies.

Alaska↗
USGS2016

Conservation status of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines

Loss of Arctic sea ice owing to climate change is the primary threat to polar bears throughout their range. We evaluated the potential response of polar bears to sea-ice declines by (i) calculating generation length (GL) for the species, which determines the timeframe for conservation assessments; (ii) developing a standardized sea-ice metric representing important habitat; and (iii) using statistical models and computer simulation to project changes in the global population under three approaches relating polar bear abundance to sea ice. Mean GL was 11.5 years. Ice-covered days declined in all subpopulation areas during 1979–2014 (median −1.26 days year −1 ). The estimated probabilities that reductions in the mean global population size of polar bears will be greater than 30%, 50% and 80% over three generations (35–41 years) were 0.71 (range 0.20–0.95), 0.07 (range 0–0.35) and less than 0.01 (range 0–0.02), respectively. According to IUCN Red List reduction thresholds, which provide a common measure of extinction risk across taxa, these results are consistent with listing the species as vulnerable. Our findings support the potential for large declines in polar bear numbers owing to sea-ice loss, and highlight near-term uncertainty in statistical projections as well as the sensitivity of projections to different plausible assumptions.

Biology Letters↗
USGS2024

Assessing the sustainability of Pacific walrus harvest in a changing environment

Harvest sustainability is a primary goal of wildlife management and conservation, and in a changing world it is increasingly important to consider environmental drivers of population dynamics alongside harvest in cohesive management plans. This is particularly pertinent for harvested species that are acutely experiencing effects of climate change. The Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ), a critical traditional subsistence resource for indigenous communities, is simultaneously subject to rapid habitat loss associated with diminishing sea ice and an increasing anthropogenic footprint in the Arctic. We developed a theta-logistic population modeling-management framework to evaluate various harvest scenarios combined with four potential climate/disturbance scenarios (ranging from optimistic–pessimistic) which simulates Pacific walrus population dynamics to the end of the 21 st century. We considered two types of harvest strategies: (1) adaptive harvest scenarios wherein harvest is calculated as a percentage of the population and annual harvests are updated at set intervals as the population is reassessed, and (2) non-adaptive harvest scenarios wherein annual harvest remains constant. All climate/disturbance scenarios indicated declines of varying severity in Pacific walrus abundance to the end of the 21 st century, even in the absence of harvest. However, we found that an adaptive annual harvest of 1.23% of the independent-aged female subset of the population (e.g., 1,280 independent-aged females harvested in 2020, representing contemporary harvest levels) met our criterion for sustainability (>70% probability of maintaining population abundance above maximum net productivity level) under all climate/disturbance scenarios, accepting a medium risk tolerance level of 25%. This suggests that the present rate of Pacific walrus harvest is sustainable and will continue to be—provided the harvest adapts to match changes in population dynamics. Our simulations suggest that a sustainable non-adaptive harvest is also possible, but only at low levels if the population declines as expected. Applying a constant annual harvest of 1,280 independent-aged females (equivalent to contemporary harvest levels of 1.23) exceeded our criterion for sustainability and resulted in a >5% chance of quasi-extinction by the end of the 21 st century under three of the four climate/disturbance scenarios we evaluated. Our results highlight the importance of adaptive co-management strategies, and we suggest such modeling frameworks are useful for managing for harvest sustainability in a changing climate.

BioRxiv↗
USGS2005

Comparing electronic probes for volumetric water content of low-density feathermoss

Purpose - Feathermoss is ubiquitous in the boreal forest and across various land-cover types of the arctic and subarctic. A variety of affordable commercial sensors for soil moisture content measurement have recently become available and are in use in such regions, often in conjunction with fire-susceptibility or ecological studies. Few come supplied with calibrations suitable or suggested for soils high in organics. Aims to test seven of these sensors for use in feathermoss, seeking calibrations between sensor output and volumetric water content. Design/methodology/approach - Measurements from seven sensors installed in live, dead and burned feathermoss samples, drying in a controlled manner, were compared to moisture content measurements. Empirical calibrations of sensor output to water content were determined. Findings - Almost all of the sensors tested were suitable for measuring the moss sample water content, and a unique calibration for each sensor for this material is presented. Differences in sensor design lead to changes in sensitivity as a function of volumetric water content, affecting the spatial averaging over the soil measurement volume. Research limitations/implications - The wide range of electromagnetic sensors available include frequency and time domain designs with variations in wave guide and sensor geometry, the location of sensor electronics and operating frequency. Practical implications - This study provides information for extending the use of electromagnetic sensors to feathermoss. Originality/value - A comparison of volumetric water content sensor mechanics and design is of general interest to researchers measuring soil water content. In particular, researchers working in wetlands, boreal forests and tundra regions will be able to apply these results. ?? Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Sensor Review↗
USGS2005

DEM, tide and velocity over sulzberger ice shelf, West Antarctica

Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets preserve more than 77% of the global fresh water and could raise global sea level by several meters if completely melted. Ocean tides near and under ice shelves shifts the grounding line position significantly and are one of current limitations to study glacier dynamics and mass balance. The Sulzberger ice shelf is an area of ice mass flux change in West Antarctica and has not yet been well studied. In this study, we use repeat-pass synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry data from the ERS-1 and ERS-2 tandem missions for generation of a high-resolution (60-m) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) including tidal deformation detection and ice stream velocity of the Sulzberger Ice Shelf. Other satellite data such as laser altimeter measurements with fine foot-prints (70-m) from NASA's ICESat are used for validation and analyses. The resulting DEM has an accuracy of-0.57??5.88 m and is demonstrated to be useful for grounding line detection and ice mass balance studies. The deformation observed by InSAR is found to be primarily due to ocean tides and atmospheric pressure. The 2-D ice stream velocities computed agree qualitatively with previous methods on part of the Ice Shelf from passive microwave remote-sensing data (i.e., LANDSAT). ?? 2005 IEEE.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2002

Long-term climate patterns in Alaskan surface temperature and precipitation and their biological consequences

Mean monthly climate maps of Alaskan surface temperature and precipitation produced by the parameter-elevation regression on independent slopes model (PRISM) were analyzed. Alaska is divided into interior and coastal zones with consistent but different climatic variability separated by a transition region; it has maximum interannual variability but low long-term mean variability. Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)- and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-type events influence Alaska surface temperatures weakly (1-2/spl deg/C) statewide. PDO has a stronger influence than ENSO on precipitation but its influence is largely localized to coastal central Alaska. The strongest influence of Arctic oscillation (AO) occurs in northern and interior Alaskan precipitation. Four major ecosystems are defined. A major eco-transition zone occurs between the interior boreal forest and the coastal rainforest. Variability in insolation, surface temperature, precipitation, continentality, and seasonal changes in storm track direction explain the mapped ecosystems. Lack of westward expansion of the interior boreal forest into the western shrub tundra is influenced by the coastal marine boundary layer (enhanced cloud cover, reduced insolation, cooler surface and soil temperatures).

IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing↗
USGS2022

Using physiological conditions to assess current and future habitat use of a Subarctic frog

Species with especially close dependence on the environment to meet physiological requirements, such as ectotherms, are highly susceptible to the impacts of climate change. Climate change is occurring rapidly in the Subarctic and Arctic, but there is limited knowledge on ectotherm physiology in these landscapes. We investigated how environmental conditions and habitat characteristics influence the physiological conditions and habitat use of wood frogs ( Rana sylvatica ) in a Subarctic landscape near Churchill, Manitoba (Canada). We used plaster models to estimate water loss rates and surface body temperatures among different habitat types and at specific locations used by radio-tracked frogs. Water loss ( R 2 = 0.67) and surface temperature ( R 2 = 0.80) of plaster models was similar to that of live frogs. Model-based water loss rates were greater in tundra habitat than in boreal forest and ecotone habitat. Habitat use of wood frogs was strongly tied with available surface moisture and decreased water loss rates that were observed with plaster models. Environmental conditions, such as wind speed and ground temperature, explained 58% and 91% of the variation in water balance and temperature of plaster models. Maintaining physiological conditions may be challenging for semi-aquatic ectotherms in environments vulnerable to future climate change. The ability to predict physiological conditions based on environmental conditions, as demonstrated in our study, can help understand how wildlife will respond to climatic changes.

Manitoba↗
USGS2016

Detrital zircon geochronology of pre- and syncollisional strata, Acadian orogen, Maine Appalachians

The Central Maine Basin is the largest expanse of deep-marine, Upper Ordovician to Devonian metasedimentary rocks in the New England Appalachians, and is a key to the tectonics of the Acadian Orogeny. Detrital zircon ages are reported from two groups of strata: (1) the Quimby, Rangeley, Perry Mountain and Smalls Falls Formations, which were derived from inboard, northwesterly sources and are supposedly older; and (2) the Madrid, Carrabassett and Littleton Formations, which were derived from outboard, easterly sources and are supposedly younger. Deep-water deposition prevailed throughout, with the provenance shift inferred to mark the onset of foredeep deposition and orogeny. The detrital zircon age distribution of a composite of the inboard-derived units shows maxima at 988 and 429 Ma; a composite from the outboard-derived units shows maxima at 1324, 1141, 957, 628, and 437 Ma. The inboard-derived units have a greater proportion of zircons between 450 and 400 Ma. Three samples from the inboard-derived group have youngest age maxima that are significantly younger than the nominal depositional ages. The outboard-derived group does not share this problem. These results are consistent with the hypothesised provenance shift, but they signal potential problems with the established stratigraphy, structure, and (or) regional mapping. Shallow-marine deposits of the Silurian to Devonian Ripogenus Formation, from northwest of the Central Maine Basin, yielded detrital zircons featuring a single age maximum at 441 Ma. These zircons were likely derived from a nearby magmatic arc now concealed by younger strata. Detrital zircons from the Tarratine Formation, part of the Acadian foreland-basin succession in this strike belt, shows age maxima at 1615, 980 and 429 Ma. These results are consistent with three episodes of zircon recycling beginning with the deposition of inboard-derived strata of the Central Maine Basin, which were shed from post-Taconic highlands located to the northwest. Next, southeasterly parts of this succession were deformed in the Acadian orogeny, shedding detritus towards the northwest into what remained of the basin. Finally, by Pragian time, all strata in the Central Maine Basin had been deformed and detritus from this new source accumulated as the Tarratine Formation in a new incarnation of the foreland basin. Silurian-Devonian strata from the Central Maine Basin have similar detrital zircon age distributions to coeval rocks from the Arctic Alaska and Farewell terranes of Alaska and the Northwestern terrane of Svalbard. We suggest that these strata were derived from different segments of the 6500-km-long Appalachian-Caledonide orogen.

Maine, New Hampshire↗
USGS2013

Introduced northern pike predation on salmonids in southcentral Alaska

Northern pike ( Esox lucius ) are opportunistic predators that can switch to alternative prey species after preferred prey have declined. This trophic adaptability allows invasive pike to have negative effects on aquatic food webs. In Southcentral Alaska, invasive pike are a substantial concern because they have spread to important spawning and rearing habitat for salmonids and are hypothesised to be responsible for recent salmonid declines. We described the relative importance of salmonids and other prey species to pike diets in the Deshka River and Alexander Creek in Southcentral Alaska. Salmonids were once abundant in both rivers, but they are now rare in Alexander Creek. In the Deshka River, we found that juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and coho salmon ( O. kisutch ) dominated pike diets and that small pike consumed more of these salmonids than large pike. In Alexander Creek, pike diets reflected the distribution of spawning salmonids, which decrease with distance upstream. Although salmonids dominated pike diets in the lowest reach of the stream, Arctic lamprey ( Lampetra camtschatica ) and slimy sculpin ( Cottus cognatus ) dominated pike diets in the middle and upper reaches. In both rivers, pike density did not influence diet and pike consumed smaller prey items than predicted by their gape-width. Our data suggest that (1) juvenile salmonids are a dominant prey item for pike, (2) small pike are the primary consumers of juvenile salmonids and (3) pike consume other native fish species when juvenile salmonids are less abundant. Implications of this trophic adaptability are that invasive pike can continue to increase while driving multiple species to low abundance.

Alaska↗
USGS2014

Polygonal tundra geomorphological change in response to warming alters future CO2 and CH4 flux on the Barrow Peninsula

The landscape of the Barrow Peninsula in northern Alaska is thought to have formed over centuries to millennia, and is now dominated by ice-wedge polygonal tundra that spans drained thaw-lake basins and interstitial tundra. In nearby tundra regions, studies have identified a rapid increase in thermokarst formation (i.e., pits) over recent decades in response to climate warming, facilitating changes in polygonal tundra geomorphology. We assessed the future impact of 100 years of tundra geomorphic change on peak growing season carbon exchange in response to: (i) landscape succession associated with the thaw-lake cycle; and (ii) low, moderate, and extreme scenarios of thermokarst pit formation (10%, 30%, and 50%) reported for Alaskan arctic tundra sites. We developed a 30 × 30 m resolution tundra geomorphology map (overall accuracy:75%; Kappa:0.69) for our ~1800 km² study area composed of ten classes; drained slope, high center polygon, flat-center polygon, low center polygon, coalescent low center polygon, polygon trough, meadow, ponds, rivers, and lakes, to determine their spatial distribution across the Barrow Peninsula. Land-atmosphere CO 2 and CH 4 flux data were collected for the summers of 2006–2010 at eighty-two sites near Barrow, across the mapped classes. The developed geomorphic map was used for the regional assessment of carbon flux. Results indicate (i) at present during peak growing season on the Barrow Peninsula, CO 2 uptake occurs at -902.3 10 6 gC-CO 2 day −1 (uncertainty using 95% CI is between −438.3 and −1366 10 6 gC-CO 2 day −1 ) and CH 4 flux at 28.9 10 6 gC-CH 4 day −1 (uncertainty using 95% CI is between 12.9 and 44.9 10 6 gC-CH 4 day −1 ), (ii) one century of future landscape change associated with the thaw-lake cycle only slightly alter CO 2 and CH 4 exchange, while (iii) moderate increases in thermokarst pits would strengthen both CO 2 uptake (−166.9 10 6 gC-CO 2 day −1 ) and CH 4 flux (2.8 10 6 gC-CH 4 day −1 ) with geomorphic change from low to high center polygons, cumulatively resulting in an estimated negative feedback to warming during peak growing season.

Alaska↗
USGS2014

Pronounced chemical response of Subarctic lakes to climate-driven losses in surface area

Losses in lake area have been observed for several Arctic and Subarctic regions in recent decades, with unknown consequences for lake ecosystems. These reductions are primarily attributed to two climate-sensitive mechanisms, both of which may also cause changes in water chemistry: (i) increased imbalance of evaporation relative to inflow, whereby increased evaporation and decreased inflow act to concentrate solutes into smaller volumes; and (ii) accelerated permafrost degradation, which enhances sublacustrine drainage while simultaneously leaching previously frozen solutes into lakes. We documented changes in nutrients [total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP)] and ions (calcium, chloride, magnesium, sodium) over a 25 year interval in shrinking, stable, and expanding Subarctic lakes of the Yukon Flats, Alaska. Concentrations of all six solutes increased in shrinking lakes from 1985–1989 to 2010–2012, while simultaneously undergoing little change in stable or expanding lakes. This created a present-day pattern, much weaker or absent in the 1980s, in which shrinking lakes had higher solute concentrations than their stable or expanding counterparts. An imbalanced evaporation-to-inflow ratio (E/I) was the most likely mechanism behind such changes; all four ions, which behave semiconservatively and are prone to evapoconcentration, increased in shrinking lakes and, along with TN and TP, were positively related to isotopically derived E/I estimates. Moreover, the most conservative ion, chloride, increased >500% in shrinking lakes. Conversely, only TP concentration was related to probability of permafrost presence, being highest at intermediate probabilities. Overall, the substantial increases of nutrients (TN >200%, TP >100%) and ions (>100%) may shift shrinking lakes towards overly eutrophic or saline states, with potentially severe consequences for ecosystems of northern lakes.

Alaska↗
USGS2018

Spatiotemporal remote sensing of ecosystem change and causation across Alaska

Contemporary climate change in Alaska has resulted in amplified rates of press and pulse disturbances that drive ecosystem change with significant consequences for socio‐environmental systems. Despite the vulnerability of Arctic and boreal landscapes to change, little has been done to characterize landscape change and associated drivers across northern high‐latitude ecosystems. Here we characterize the historical sensitivity of Alaska's ecosystems to environmental change and anthropogenic disturbances using expert knowledge, remote sensing data, and spatiotemporal analyses and modeling. Time‐series analysis of moderate—and high‐resolution imagery was used to characterize land‐ and water‐surface dynamics across Alaska. Some 430,000 interpretations of ecological and geomorphological change were made using historical air photos and satellite imagery, and corroborate land‐surface greening, browning, and wetness/moisture trend parameters derived from peak‐growing season Landsat imagery acquired from 1984 to 2015. The time series of change metrics, together with climatic data and maps of landscape characteristics, were incorporated into a modeling framework for mapping and understanding of drivers of change throughout Alaska. According to our analysis, approximately 13% (~174,000 ± 8700 km 2 ) of Alaska has experienced directional change in the last 32 years (±95% confidence intervals). At the ecoregions level, substantial increases in remotely sensed vegetation productivity were most pronounced in western and northern foothills of Alaska, which is explained by vegetation growth associated with increasing air temperatures. Significant browning trends were largely the result of recent wildfires in interior Alaska, but browning trends are also driven by increases in evaporative demand and surface‐water gains that have predominately occurred over warming permafrost landscapes. Increased rates of photosynthetic activity are associated with stabilization and recovery processes following wildfire, timber harvesting, insect damage, thermokarst, glacial retreat, and lake infilling and drainage events. Our results fill a critical gap in the understanding of historical and potential future trajectories of change in northern high‐latitude regions.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

Seal body condition and atmospheric circulation patterns influence polar bear body condition, recruitment, and feeding ecology in the Chukchi Sea

Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) are experiencing loss of sea ice habitats used to access their marine mammal prey. Simultaneously, ocean warming is changing ecosystems that support marine mammal populations. The interactive effects of sea ice and prey are not well understood yet may explain spatial‐temporal variation in the response of polar bears to sea ice loss. Here, we examined the potential combined effects of sea ice, seal body condition and atmospheric circulation patterns on the body condition, recruitment, diet, and feeding probability of 469 polar bears captured in the Chukchi Sea, 2008‐2017. The body condition of ringed seals ( Pusa hispida ), the primary prey of females and subadults, was related to dietary proportions of ringed seal, feeding probability, and the body condition of females and cubs. In contrast, adult males consumed more bearded seals ( Erignathus barbatus ) and exhibited better condition when bearded seal body condition was higher. The litter size, number of yearlings per adult female, and the condition of dependent young were higher following winters characterized by low Arctic Oscillation (AO) conditions, consistent with a growing number of studies. Body condition, recruitment, and feeding probability were either not associated or negatively associated with sea ice conditions, suggesting that, unlike some subpopulations, Chukchi Sea bears are not currently limited by sea ice availability. However, spring sea ice cover declined 2% per year during our study reaching levels not previously observed in the satellite record and resulting in the loss of polar bear hunting and seal pupping habitat. Our study suggests that the status of ice seal populations is likely an important factor that can either compound or mitigate the response of polar bears to sea ice loss over the short‐term. In the long‐term, neither polar bears nor their prey are likely robust to limitless loss of their sea ice habitat.

Alaska↗