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USGS2026

Detecting earthquakes in noisy real-time GNSS data with deep learning for improved PGD magnitude estimation

To disseminate accurate and useful warnings, earthquake early warning (EEW) systems must quickly determine the size and location of an earthquake to estimate expected shaking. Traditional seismic‐based algorithms tend to underestimate the true magnitudes of large earthquakes, a phenomenon known as magnitude saturation. This limitation motivated the recent inclusion of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) data into the U.S. Geological Survey’s ShakeAlert EEW system with the Geodetic First Approximation of Size and Time (GFAST) algorithm because GNSS data do not saturate with large ground motions. However, the noise levels of GNSS data are very high compared with traditional seismic data, which obscures P ‐wave arrivals and can result in less accurate magnitude estimations if displacement amplitudes are low, such as for lower magnitude earthquakes or large source–station distances. In this study, we develop a deep‐learning model that detects earthquakes in GNSS data and use the Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence as a case study to demonstrate how the model could act as a filter to reduce the amount of low‐quality data that enters an algorithm like GFAST. To preserve our limited real earthquake data for model inference, we generated a training dataset composed of >700,000 synthetic displacement waveforms. We combined the synthetic waveforms with real‐time GNSS noise to produce realistically noisy training waveforms and then tested our model on additional synthetic data and performed inference using the real data that were held back. We discuss the performance of our trained model on both the unseen synthetic data and real inference data. Our model can be used to selectively filter only high‐quality data where an earthquake signal is observed for input into an algorithm like GFAST (outperforming a simple signal‐to‐noise ratio–based filter) to reduce the error in GFAST’s real‐time earthquake magnitude estimations.

California↗

USGS2026

Preface to the focus section on intraplate earthquakes

More than a half century after plate tectonics provided an overarching framework to explain earthquakes along active plate boundaries, numerous theories have been proposed to explain where, why, and how often earthquakes occur well away from active plate boundaries, but a paradigm remains elusive. Even the classification of earthquakes away from active plate boundaries as "intraplate" raises issues, with potentially important distinctions between Stable Continental Regions and more actively deforming regions including passive margins and failed rifts. Some of the largest known intraplate earthquakes themselves remain enigmatic, having occurred before the modern instrumental era. Hazard assessments are often data-limited: low fault-slip rates relative to landscape modification rates result in poor discoverability of fault sources, challenging the characterization of source zones and earthquake recurrence; the completeness and homogenization of instrumental earthquake catalogs using uncertain magnitude conversions can lead to uncertainties in earthquake recurrence; and, limited strong-motion observations for large-magnitude events at near-source distances leads to uncertainties in the selection and development of ground-motion models for seismic hazard studies. Data from recent intraplate earthquakes around the world—from the moment magnitude M 7.7 2001 Bhuj, India, earthquake 25 years ago to the 2024 M 4.8 Tewksbury, New Jersey earthquake—have yielded both new insights and new questions. The papers in this special focus discuss many of the long-standing challenges involved with intraplate earthquake investigations and provide a snapshot of the state of the art with current research to advance our understanding.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2024

Subducting plate structure and megathrust morphology from deep seismic imaging linked to earthquake rupture segmentation at Cascadia

The origin of rupture segmentation along subduction zone megathrusts and linkages to the structural evolution of the subduction zone are poorly understood. Here, regional-scale seismic imaging of the Cascadia margin is used to characterize the megathrust spanning ~900 km from Vancouver Island to the California border, across the seismogenic zone to a few tens of kilometers from the coast. Discrete domains in lower plate geometry and sediment underthrusting are identified, not evident in prior regional plate models, which align with changes in lithology and structure of the upper plate and interpreted paleo-rupture patches. Strike-slip faults in the lower plate associated with oblique subduction mark boundaries between regions of distinct lower plate geometry. Their formation may be linked to changes in upper plate structure across long-lived upper plate faults. The Juan de Fuca plate is fragmenting within the seismogenic zone at Cascadia as the young plate bends beneath the heterogeneous upper plate resulting in structural domains that coincide with paleo-rupture segmentation.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2025

Utilizing downhole datasets for modelling the aeromagnetic signature of the Iron Creek Co-Cu deposit in the Idaho Cobalt Belt

The Idaho Cobalt Belt in east-central Idaho is host to some of the largest domestic Co resources, including the informal Iron Creek deposit. The two main ore zones of this deposit, the Iron Creek and the Ruby, are hosted in greenschist-grade interbedded argillite/siltstone and quartz-rich units of the Mesoproterozoic Apple Creek Formation of Lemhi Group. The primary ore mineral is cobalt-bearing pyrite, which occurs with pyrrhotite, chalcopyrite, and magnetite. This study integrates mineralogical and core-scale geophysical measurements with regional-scale aeromagnetic surveys. The high magnetite content within the Ruby zone produces elevated magnetic susceptibility, but the relatively limited spatial footprint of the ore zone would produce a small-scale anomaly that may be overlooked in regional surveys. The low magnetite content in the Iron Creek zone results in low magnetic susceptibility, creating a relatively low amplitude geophysical response. By characterizing the magnetic properties and mineralogy of these ore zones, this study enhances the interpretation of aeromagnetic data, enabling the identification of small or faint anomalies as potential Co targets. These findings improve can improve exploration strategies, both within the Idaho Cobalt Belt as well as for similar deposit types globally.

Idaho↗

USGS2024

A partially nonergodic ground-motion model for Fourier amplitude spectra for the San Francisco Bay area, California, USA

We develop a partially nonergodic ground-motion model (GMM) for Fourier amplitude spectra for the San Francisco Bay Area, California, USA, using the Bayless and Abrahamson (2019) GMM as a reference ergodic GMM and developing location-dependent adjustments to the predicted median and variance. We compile regional ground-motion data from moment magnitude (𝑀 w ) >3 earthquakes occurring during 2000–2022 for which magnitude information is available in the U.S. Geological Survey Comprehensive Catalog (Guy et al., 2015). The data set predominantly consists of records from 𝑀 w 3.5–4.5 earthquakes but includes three well-recorded 𝑀 w > 5 events. Ground-motion residuals are evaluated using the time-averaged shear-wave velocity in the top 30 m (𝑉 S30 ) from the California-specific map of Thompson et al. (2018) and basin-depth site parameters from the seismic velocity model of Aagaard and Hirakawa (2021). The 𝑉 S30 dependence and basin-depth scaling of the reference ergodic GMM of Bayless and Abrahamson (2019) are evaluated and modified with the updated data set. We compute maps of site adjustments using a varying-coefficient model that considers the spatial correlation structure and uncertainties at each observation location. The spatial covariance model is developed using ground-motion residuals that are standardized by the uncertainty model, which allows for consideration of the aleatory variability in developing the site adjustments. The covariance model is fit considering the means and standard deviations of the site terms at all locations. The use of partially nonergodic median adjustments results in modified variance components of the within-event variability. Due to the low number of large-magnitude earthquakes that control seismic hazard in the data set, we do not modify between-event variance; however, we present adjustments to site-to-site variability for use in partially nonergodic hazard assessments.

California↗

USGS2025

RioM-1: A new calcite reference material for U-Pb LA-ICP-MS geochronology

Determining absolute ages of carbonate diagenesis, faulting, fossil formation, speleothem growth, carbonate-hosted hydrocarbon deposits, vein mineralisation and hydrothermal alteration has become increasingly accessible through LA-ICP-MS U-Pb dating of calcite, complementing traditional isotope dilution methods still applicable to certain materials (e.g., speleothems via micro-drilling). However, well-calibrated reference materials for LA-ICP-MS calcite geochronology remain scarce. Here, we characterise the Rio Maior calcite, designated ‘RioM-1’, as a potential reference material for U-Pb dating by LA-ICP-MS. Fragments (0.1 to 1 cm 3 ) from a single scalenohedral crystal were analysed by ID-TIMS (U-Pb), LA-ICP-MS (U-Pb and 87 Sr/ 86 Sr), and SIMS (O isotopes). RioM-1 displays high U mass fraction and low, though variable, proportions of common Pb. Combined ID-TIMS analyses from two independent laboratories yielded a Tera-Wasserburg lower intercept date of 63.93 ± 0.11 Ma (2 s , MSWD = 1.3, n = 16). LA-ICP-MS U-Pb data from three independent laboratories are concordant with the TIMS age, producing a pooled date of 64.10 ± 0.12/1.2 Ma (2 s , MSWD = 7.7, n = 708) and an initial 207 Pb/ 206 Pb ratio of 0.85 ± 0.01. Other calcite reference materials, when normalised to RioM-1, yielded dates within uncertainty of their published values. SIMS measurements returned a mean 18 O/ 16 O of 0.002044450 ± 181 (1 s ) and δ 18 O SMOW of 19.57 ± 0.92‰ (1 s ), while LA-ICP-MS strontium isotope measurement yielded a mean 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of 0.708177 ± 9 (2 s ).

Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research↗

USGS2026

Indirect mineral import reliance and provenance

Mineral commodity supply chain analyses rely on international trade data reported by individual countries as quantities of a mineral commodity form imported from (or exported to) a partner. However, export quantities frequently exceed a country’s domestic production, or occur when no production data are reported, suggesting that the trade partner is merely an intermediary in a transshipment. These discrepancies can result in misleading conclusions regarding supply chain vulnerabilities and dependencies. We present a two-stage methodology to reconcile gaps between reported material sources and actual producers. First, we construct trade networks for specific mineral forms, treating production as a type of import to distinguish producing nations from entrepôts. By tracing flows through these networks, we attribute a target country’s imports to original producers via both direct (in a single trade link) and indirect (transferring through intermediaries) pathways. Second, these production-attributed flows are incorporated into multi-stage supply chains to determine the upstream provenance of feedstock for domestic refining and processing. This approach provides a more representative picture of trade reliance. For example, while the United States (U.S.) Geological Survey reports no imports of unwrought antimony metal from Russia in 2022 (U.S. Geological Survey (2025). Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025. 10.3133/mcs2025), our analysis reveals that over 16% of U.S. imports can be traced back to Russian mining through intermediate processing in countries such as China, India, and Vietnam. Additionally, our analysis of the aluminum supply chain shows that while the U.S. is reported as 52% net import reliant on aluminum materials in 2022, it is 100% reliant on foreign bauxite, 7% of which arrived indirectly. This unreported reliance, which is predominantly tied to bauxite mined in Brazil (43%) and Jamaica (28%), highlights our methods ability to capture the supply chain’s dependence on foreign feedstock that may be missing in single-stage trade data.

Mineral Economics↗

USGS2025

Igneous differentiation in arcs

This chapter assesses crystallization-differentiation of convergent-margin magmas both from the standpoints of natural rock suites and from laboratory phase-equilibrium experiments. Crystallization-differentiation of dry subalkaline and alkaline basalts are summarized at the beginning for reference and context. Experiments crystallizing arc basalts through andesites at middle to upper crustal pressures (100–400 MPa), saturated either with H 2 O or mixed H 2 O-CO 2 , produce liquid lines of descent similar to arc igneous suites, with higher f O 2 s giving results closer to calc-alkaline magma series. Early enrichment of melts in SiO 2 with little or no enrichment in FeO* (total Fe as FeO) comes about by the combined effects of H 2 O suppressing crystallization of plagioclase relative to olivine, shifting plagioclase to more calcic – therefore lower SiO 2 – compositions, and suppressing silicate minerals to greater extents than Fe-rich spinel. Also contributing to SiO 2 enrichment is crystallization near the liquidus of higher proportions of olivine relative to calcic clinopyroxene, compared with MORB, but it is unclear if this is brought about by H 2 O or elevated pressure. Exhumed arc terranes, however, generally fail to expose evidence for primitive liquids having reached and differentiated at middle to upper crustal depths, at least in any abundance. Instead, most differentiation in arcs appears to take place in the lower crust or near the crust-mantle transition, and although hydrous experiments at such pressures produce liquids broadly similar to arc suites in their SiO 2 enrichment, the experimental liquids differ in becoming peraluminous at early stages of differentiation while melts have basaltic, basaltic andesitic, or andesitic SiO 2 concentrations. Crystallization of abundant calcic clinopyroxene close to the liquidus causes the high-pressure experimental liquids to become peraluminous with only small increases in SiO 2 concentration. In contrast, natural arc volcanic and plutonic suites become gradually less metaluminous with increasing SiO 2 , crossing to peraluminous at dacitic to rhyolitic SiO 2 concentrations. Hybridism, encompassing magma-mixing, assimilation of old crust, and incorporation of near-solidus melts from only shortly older deep, antecedent arc intrusions may accompany natural crystallization-differentiation, preventing melts from attaining peraluminous compositions at low-SiO 2 concentrations. If so, then nearly all arc suites are to substantial extents composites, rather than preserving simple, progressive liquid lines of descent. Some comments and assessments are also made on the participation of garnet in arc differentiation and on the production of arc batholiths.

Book chapter↗

USGS2024

Updating the crustal fault model for the 2023 National Seismic Hazard Model for Alaska

We present the crustal fault model for Alaska, based on geologic observations, as a primary input for the 2023 revision of the U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model. We update the 2013 Alaska Quaternary fault and fold database to produce a simplified model of 105 fault sections and four fault zone polygons with basic geologic parameters including slip sense and rate. Significant updates include the following: (1) a slip rate of ∼53 mm/year on the Queen Charlotte Fault indicating it accommodates all of the plate boundary motion; (2) quantified slip rates on megathrust splay faults in the southern Prince William Sound region and near Kodiak Island; (3) improved details of structures in the Chugach-St. Elias orogen; (4) revision of the Castle Mountain Fault from right-lateral slip to a predominantly reverse fault; (5) improved Interior Alaska tectonic models that clarify relationships between the Denali, Totschunda, and thrust faults on both sides of the Alaska Range; (6) identified large earthquake sources in the eastern Brooks Range; and (7) omission of the Chatham Strait section of the Denali Fault. The fault model underscores that the collision of the Yakutat microplate is the dominant driver of active crustal faulting in most of Alaska.

Alaska, Yukon↗

USGS2024

The importance of nodal plane orientation diversity for earthquake focal mechanism stress inversions

Inversions of earthquake focal mechanisms are among the most accessible and reliable methods for determining crustal stress. However, the use of this method varies widely, and assumptions that underpin it are often violated, potentially compromising stress estimates. We investigate the consequences of violating the little-studied assumption that the focal mechanisms have diverse orientations. Our approach is to employ data-informed synthetic mechanisms, with nodal plane orientations defined by recent earthquake lineaments in the Midland Basin, western Texas, and rakes consistent with slip in the mapped stress field. Using both the traditional stress inversion method that assumes constant shear stress magnitudes on the causative faults as well as a recently published variable shear stress method, we show that low fault plane diversity can cause maximum horizontal stress ( S Hmax ) orientation and relative principal stress magnitude (faulting regime) estimates to differ markedly from the true values. This problem is compounded for catalogs with even modest amounts of noise (≤15°) or few (e.g., 20) mechanisms. Significantly, traditional approaches for quantifying uncertainty such as the bootstrap can severely underestimate the true uncertainty under these circumstances. To remedy this, we provide simple tools to quantify nodal plane orientation diversity and stress inversion reliability.

Geological Society of London Special Publications↗

USGS2025

Groundwater surveillance of swine pathogens from private wells supplying swine farms in Iowa

Biosecurity practices are essential for maintaining pig health and productivity. Despite these measures, pathogen spread still occurs. Water is one of the largest daily inputs on swine farms by volume and is not routinely tested or disinfected before it is consumed by the animals [1-3], making it a poorly understood biosecurity risk. Groundwater from privately-owned wells is a common water source for swine farms. Pathogens in the landscape, such as bacteria, viruses, and protozoa, can reach groundwater more rapidly through soil macropores, maintaining viability and facilitating transmission of pathogens into aquifers [3-13].

Iowa↗

USGS2024

Rainfall intensification amplifies exposure of American Southwest to conditions that trigger postfire debris flows

Short-duration, high-intensity rainfall can initiate deadly and destructive debris flows after wildfire. Methods to estimate the conditions that can trigger debris flows exist and guidance to determine how often those thresholds will be exceeded under the present climate are available. However, the limited spatiotemporal resolution of climate models has hampered efforts to characterize how rainfall intensification driven by global warming may affect debris-flow hazards. We use novel, dynamically downscaled (3.75-km), convection-permitting simulations of short-duration (15-min) rainfall to evaluate threshold exceedance for late 21st-century climate scenarios in the American Southwest. We observe significant increases in the frequency and magnitude of exceedances for regions dominated by cool- and warm-season rainfall. We also observe an increased frequency of exceedance in regions where postfire debris flows have not been documented, and communities are unaccustomed to the hazard. Our findings can inform planning efforts to increase resiliency to debris flows under a changing climate.

Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah↗

USGS2025

Seismic intensities, ground motions and basin amplification from the 2022 Mw 6.4 Ferndale, California intraslab earthquake

On December 20, 2022, a Mw 6.4 earthquake occurred at a depth of 18 km within the subducting Gorda plate in the Mendocino Triple Junction (MTJ), one of the most seismically active regions of the contiguous United States, causing widespread damage to local communities. Here we document the seismic intensities, ground motions, and basin amplification effects recorded by this earthquake across Humboldt County as part of an ongoing scientific effort to understand subduction zone earthquake hazards. Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) values from our post-earthquake field survey report shaking intensities as high as VIII (Severe). Strong ground motion data from 54 seismic stations were processed to calculate amplitude and frequency content parameters across Northern California. The maximum calculated geometric mean PGA and PGV are 1053 cm/s 2 and 52 cm/s (respectively), both recorded within the 3 km deep Eel River sedimentary basin. Comparisons with four published Ground Motion Prediction Equations indicate that PGA and PGV measurements align with expected attenuation-distance patterns for intraslab earthquakes of this nature. Within the Eel River Basin, ground motions for frequencies above 1 Hz are amplified, with respect to reference stations, by factors greater than 2. Our findings suggest that peak ground motions were mainly caused by sedimentary basin site-effects within the Eel River basin, although rupture directivity may have also increased ground motion amplitudes locally. While the Ferndale area is primarily impacted by shallow intraslab earthquakes, our results also raise questions about site-response and basin amplification hazards from a potential megathrust earthquake. The high seismicity rates of the southernmost Cascades call for stronger regional preparedness and improved strategies to mitigate the effects of such a large-scale disaster.

California↗

USGS2024

Seismicity and anisotropic imaging reveal an active detachment beneath the northern Alaska Range foothills

North of the Denali Fault, the collision between the Yakutat block with North America is accommodated by a fold-thrust belt giving rise to the northern Alaska Range foothills. At the western end, the Kantishna Hills anticline hosts prominent microseismicity and surface deformation, interpreted as active folding of the Kantishna Hills anticline above a midcrustal detachment. We test for this detachment by using anisotropy-aware receiver functions to image fabric contrasts within the crust in context with seismicity. Seismic stations near the crest of the Kantishna Hills anticline and near its southern flank show a single strong contrast in dipping fabric at depths of 12–13 km near microseismicity clustering depths, consistent with a detachment plane beneath the fold. A minimum b -value at 10–13 km depth is consistent with seismicity on the detachment, compatible with the imaged anisotropic contrast, while off-fault seismicity is shallower and deeper with smaller magnitudes. South-dipping imbricate thrusts in schist characterize the northern Alaska Range foothills structure. This supports our interpretation of the observed anisotropy as reflecting SSW–SSE-dipping foliation above a detachment at ∼10–13 km depth that exploits existing crustal weaknesses along subtle fabric contrasts observed in the seismically quiescent region north of the actively deforming belt.

Alaska↗

USGS2025

ShakeAlert® version 3: Expected performance in large earthquakes

The ShakeAlert earthquake early warning (EEW) system partners along with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) licensed operators deliver EEW alerts to the public and trigger automated systems when a significant earthquake is expected to impact California, Oregon, or Washington. ShakeAlert’s primary goal is to provide usable warning times before the arrival of damaging shaking. EEW is most likely to achieve this goal in large‐magnitude earthquakes. In recent years, ShakeAlert has gone through a series of upgrades to its underlying scientific algorithms aimed at improved performance during large earthquakes. Version 3 of this software recently went live in the production system and includes improvements to all algorithms. The main seismic algorithms that detect an earthquake and characterize its location, magnitude, and fault rupture orientation are faster than older versions. Other key changes include: using real‐time geodetic data to characterize the magnitude growth in large earthquakes; the introduction of an alert pause procedure to compromise between speed near the epicenter and improved accuracy at larger distances; and the inclusion of a nonergodic site‐response model in the ground‐motion predictions. ShakeAlert has achieved its primary goal of usable warning times before strong shaking at some locations in real‐time operations in recent M 6 earthquakes. Using offline tests, we demonstrate usable warning times are possible for many sites with peak shaking values of modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) 7–8 in M 7+ earthquakes and also for many MMI 8–9 sites in M 8+ earthquakes. ShakeAlert partners use a variety of MMI and magnitude thresholds in deciding when to alert their users within bounds set by the USGS. Our study shows that there is room to raise the magnitude thresholds up to about M 5.5 without adversely affecting performance in large earthquakes. The ground‐motion criteria are more complex owing to a significant drop‐off in warning times between the MMI 4 and 5 levels of predicted shaking. However, widely used ShakeAlert products, such as the MMI 3 and 4 contour products, can provide sufficiently long warning times before strong shaking in moderate‐to‐great earthquakes to enable a range of protective actions.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS1986

Potential for leakage among principal aquifers in the Memphis area, Tennessee

The principal aquifers in the Memphis area consist primarily of sand or sand and gravel, and the confining beds consist of clay, silt, sand, and lignite. The Jackson Formation and upper part of the Claiborne Group serve as the confining bed separating the water table aquifers from the Memphis Sand; the Flour Island Formation separates the Memphis Sand from the Fort Pillow Sand. Differences in total hydraulic head among the principal aquifers in the Memphis urban area result in vertical hydraulic gradients which create a potential for inter-aquifer exchange of water. Throughout this area, the gradient is downward from the water table aquifers to the Memphis Sand. In the central part of the Memphis urban area, the vertical hydraulic gradient is upward from the Fort Pillow Sand to the Memphis Sand, and in the eastern and western parts, it is downward from the Memphis Sand to the Fort Pillow Sand. The vertical distribution of carbon-14 data for water from the fluvial deposits, Memphis Sand, and Fort Pillow Sand shows an increase in the relative age of the water with depth. The areal distribution of carbon-14 data for water from the upper part of the Memphis Sand indicates that relatively recent water has been brought into the major cone of depression in the potentiometric surface of the Memphis Sand, either by horizontal movement or from downward vertical leakage. The normal, near-surface geothermal gradient in the Memphis area was determined to be 0.6 C/100 ft. Deviations from the normal geothermal gradient, in areas affected by intense pumping from the Memphis Sand, indicate that downward vertical leakage occurs from the water table aquifers through the Jackson-upper Claiborne confining bed to the Memphis Sand. The velocity of downward vertical leakage of water from the Memphis Sand through the Flour Island confining bed to the Fort Pillow Sand was determined to be 0.0066 ft/day by analysis of borehole temperature data from an observation well in the northeastern part of the Memphis area. From this velocity and the head difference between the Memphis Sand and the Fort Pillow Sand at this locality, the hydraulic conductivity of the Flour Island confining bed was determined to be 0.00114 ft/day. (Lantz-PTT)

Tennessee↗

USGS2026

Northern bobwhites select for native grasses on working grazing land

Northern bobwhite ( Colinus virginianus ; bobwhite) populations have experienced an 85% decline across most of its range since the 1960s. The most drastic decreases have been in the southeastern United States where biologists attribute the decline to widespread habitat loss, including conversion of native grasslands to tall fescue ( Lolium arundinaceum ) and other exotic cool-season grass (CSG) pasture and hayfields. Including agricultural lands in conservation programs could improve habitat conditions on a regional scale. One working-lands conservation strategy involves the use of native warm-season grasses (NWSGs) rather than cool-season exotic grasses as economically viable cattle forage. To evaluate this management practice for creating bobwhite habitat, we conducted a field study on a bobwhite population in eastern Kentucky, USA, where grazed NWSG and burned NWSG fields were adjacent to exotic grazed and exotic hayed CSG fields. Between April 2019 and October 2022, we used radio telemetry to track bobwhites to evaluate resource selection at second- and third-order scales. Bobwhites used traditionally managed CSGs less than would be expected by chance at the second-order scale in both breeding and non-breeding seasons. Bobwhite use of grazed NWSG and burned NWSG was greater than would be expected by chance at the second-order scale in both breeding and non-breeding seasons. Similarly, at the third-order scale, bobwhites used CSGs less than would be expected by chance, whereas NWSGs and woody stems were used more than by chance alone. Our study suggests that bobwhites select NWSGs at multiple spatial scales despite broad-scale availability of managed exotic CSGs. Under a working-lands framework, the integration of NWSGs into working lands could create bobwhite habitat in the southeastern United States, especially if woody stems are present.

Kentucky↗

USGS1998

Methods and guidelines for effective model calibration; with application to UCODE, a computer code for universal inverse modeling, and MODFLOWP, a computer code for inverse modeling with MODFLOW

This report documents methods and guidelines for model calibration using inverse modeling. The inverse modeling and statistical methods discussed are broadly applicable, but are presented as implemented in the computer programs UCODE, a universal inverse code that can be used with any application model, and MODFLOWP, an inverse code limited to one application model. UCODE and MODFLOWP perform inverse modeling, posed as a parameter-estimation problem, by calculating parameter values that minimize a weighted least-squares objective function using nonlinear regression. Minimization is accomplished using a modified Gauss-Newton method, and prior, or direct, information on estimated parameters can be included in the regression. Inverse modeling in many fields is plagued by problems of instability and nonuniqueness, and obtaining useful results depends on (1) defining a tractable inverse problem using simplifications appropriate to the system under investigation and (2) wise use of statistics generated using calculated sensitivities and the match between observed and simulated values, and associated graphical analyses. Fourteen guidelines presented in this work suggest ways of constructing and calibrating models of complex systems such that the resulting model is as accurate and useful as possible.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗