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Enhanced and updated spatially referenced statistical assessment of dissolved-solids load sources and transport in streams of the Upper Colorado River Basin

Approximately 6.4 million tons of dissolved solids are discharged from the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) to the Lower Colorado River Basin each year. This results in substantial economic damages, and tens of millions of dollars are spent annually on salinity control projects designed to reduce salinity loads in surface waters of the UCRB. Dissolved solids in surface water and groundwater have been studied extensively over the past century, and these studies have contributed to a conceptual understanding of sources and transport of dissolved solids. This conceptual understanding was incorporated into a Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed Attributes (SPARROW) model to examine sources and transport of dissolved solids in the UCRB. The results of this model were published in 2009. The present report documents the methods and data used to develop an updated dissolved-solids SPARROW model for the UCRB, and incorporates data defining current basin attributes not available in the previous model, including delineation of irrigated lands by irrigation type (sprinkler or flood irrigation), and calibration data from additional monitoring sites. Dissolved-solids loads estimated for 312 monitoring sites were used to calibrate the SPARROW model, which predicted loads for each of 10,789 stream reaches in the UCRB. The calibrated model provided a good fit to the calibration data as evidenced by R 2 and yield R 2 values of 0.96 and 0.73, respectively, and a root-mean-square error of 0.47. The model included seven geologic sources that have estimated dissolved-solids yields ranging from approximately 1 to 45 tons per square mile (tons/mi 2 ). Yields generated from irrigated agricultural lands are substantially greater than those from geologic sources, with sprinkler irrigated lands generating an average of approximately 150 tons/mi 2 and flood irrigated lands generating between 770 and 2,300 tons/mi 2 depending on underlying lithology. The coefficients estimated for six landscape transport characteristics that influence the delivery of dissolved solids from sources to streams, are consistent with the process understanding of dissolved-solids loading to streams in the UCRB. Dissolved-solids loads and the proportion of those loads among sources in the entire UCRB as well as in major tributaries in the basin are reported, as are loads generated from irrigated lands, rangelands, Bureau of Land Management (BLM) lands, and grazing allotments on BLM lands. Model-predicted loads also are compared with load estimates from 1957 and 1991 at selected locations in three divisions of the UCRB. At the basin scale, the model estimates that 32 percent of the dissolved-solids loads are from irrigated agricultural land sources that compose less than 2 percent of the land area in the UCRB. This estimate is less than previously reported estimates of 40 to 45 percent of basin-scale dissolved-solids loads from irrigated agricultural land sources. This discrepancy could be a result of the implementation of salinity control projects in the basin. Notably, results indicate that the conversion of flood irrigated agricultural lands to sprinkler irrigated agricultural lands is a likely process contributing to the temporal decrease in dissolved-solids loads from irrigated lands.

Colorado River Basin↗

Estimation of mussel population response to hydrologic alteration in a southeastern U.S. stream

The southeastern United States has experienced severe, recurrent drought, rapid human population growth, and increasing agricultural irrigation during recent decades, resulting in greater demand for the water resources. During the same time period, freshwater mussels ( Unioniformes ) in the region have experienced substantial population declines. Consequently, there is growing interest in determining how mussel population declines are related to activities associated with water resource development. Determining the causes of mussel population declines requires, in part, an understanding of the factors influencing mussel population dynamics. We developed Pradel reverse-time, tag-recapture models to estimate survival, recruitment, and population growth rates for three federally endangered mussel species in the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River Basin, Georgia. The models were parameterized using mussel tag-recapture data collected over five consecutive years from Sawhatchee Creek, located in southwestern Georgia. Model estimates indicated that mussel survival was strongly and negatively related to high flows during the summer, whereas recruitment was strongly and positively related to flows during the spring and summer. Using these models, we simulated mussel population dynamics under historic (1940–1969) and current (1980–2008) flow regimes and under increasing levels of water use to evaluate the relative effectiveness of alternative minimum flow regulations. The simulations indicated that the probability of simulated mussel population extinction was at least 8 times greater under current hydrologic regimes. In addition, simulations of mussel extinction under varying levels of water use indicated that the relative risk of extinction increased with increased water use across a range of minimum flow regulations. The simulation results also indicated that our estimates of the effects of water use on mussel extinction were influenced by the assumptions about the dynamics of the system, highlighting the need for further study of mussel population dynamics.

Georgia↗

Bayesian nitrate source apportionment to individual groundwater wells in the Central Valley by use of elemental and isotopic tracers

Groundwater quality is a concern in alluvial aquifers that underlie agricultural areas, such as in the San Joaquin Valley of California. Shallow domestic wells (less than 150 m deep) in agricultural areas are often contaminated by nitrate. Agricultural and rural nitrate sources include dairy manure, synthetic fertilizers, and septic waste. Knowledge of the relative proportion that each of these sources contributes to nitrate concentration in individual wells can aid future regulatory and land management decisions. We show that nitrogen and oxygen isotopes of nitrate, boron isotopes, and iodine concentrations are a useful, novel combination of groundwater tracers to differentiate between manure, fertilizers, septic waste, and natural sources of nitrate. Furthermore, in this work, we develop a new Bayesian mixing model in which these isotopic and elemental tracers were used to estimate the probability distribution of the fractional contributions of manure, fertilizers, septic waste, and natural sources to the nitrate concentration found in an individual well. The approach was applied to 56 nitrate-impacted private domestic wells located in the San Joaquin Valley. Model analysis found that some domestic wells were clearly dominated by the manure source and suggests evidence for majority contributions from either the septic or fertilizer source for other wells. But, predictions of fractional contributions for septic and fertilizer sources were often of similar magnitude, perhaps because modeled uncertainty about the fraction of each was large. For validation of the Bayesian model, fractional estimates were compared to surrounding land use and estimated source contributions were broadly consistent with nearby land use types.

California↗

Summary appraisals of the nation's ground-water resources – Rio Grande region

The Rio Grande is an interstate and international stream which begins in high mountains of Colorado, flows across New Mexico, and forms the boundary between Texas and Mexico. Precipitation ranges from 8 inches (20 em) to more than 30 inches (76 em), but irrigation is required for growing crops throughout the region. The population of the region has been increasing rapidly, from 750,000 in 1929 to 1,700,000 in 1970, and it is expected to increase to 2,500,000 by 2020. The basic economy of the region was agricultural until recent years. Since 1950, the mining and petroleum industries have increased much more rapidly than agriculture. Annual precipitation on the region is about 86 million acre-feet (110,000 hm 3 ); however, all but 4 million acre-feet (4,900 hm 3 ) is returned to the atmosphere by evapotranspiration. The ground-water reservoirs contain an aggregate of 5,800 million acre-feet (7,200,000 hm 3 ) of fresh and slightly saline water in storage, which could be withdrawn through wells. In contrast, the surface reservoirs have a combined storage capacity of only 18 million acre-feet (22,000 hm 3 ). Thick deposits of valley fill in stream and intermontane valleys comprise the principal ground-water reservoirs. In most areas they are capable of yielding large supplies of water to wells. In some areas, limestone constitutes major aquifers. Withdrawal of ground water in the region in 1970 was 2.7 million acre-feet (3,300 hm 3 ), of which 88 percent was used for irrigation. About 53 percent of the water withdrawn was consumed. Ground water has been "mined" in some areas, and severe declines in water levels have resulted. The loss of water by evapotranspiration in wetlands and phreatophyte areas is 2.5 million acre-feet (3,100 hm 3 ) per year. In comparison, about 3. 7 million acre-feet (4,600 hm 3 ) per year of surface water and ground water is consumed by man's activities. Salvage of water lost to noneconomic evapotranspiration in wet and phreatophyte-infested areas offers the greatest possibility of improving the effective water supply in the region. Salvage of half the water lost would increase the effective supply by 1.2 million acre-feet (1,500 hm 3 ) per year. The usable water supply could be increased tremendously by drawing on the large reserve of ground water in storage, but this withdrawal could affect the flow of streams in some areas. The region appears to offer several possibilities for utilizing underground space for purposes other than the withdrawal of water, such as waste disposal, artificial recharge, water-quality control, and development of geothermal energy. Planners for ground-water management should have detailed information on the physical parameters that affect ground water, so improved management would be possible.

Colorado, New Mexico, Texas↗

A field guide for the assessment of erosion, sediment transport, and deposition in incised channels of the southwestern United States

Deeply incised channels, commonly called arroyos, are a typical feature of the dry alluvium-filled valleys of the southwestern United States. Unlike many geological processes that operate over millions of years, the formation of many miles of arroyos is one that took place in a little more than a century. Most arroyos in the region began to form in the late 19th century. Because dry landscapes change so quickly, they present society with special problems. Rapid expansion of channels by headcut migration, deepening, and widening causes loss of productive agricultural and commercial lands and threatens infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and buildings. High rates of sedimentation shorten the life of reservoirs, clog culverts, and fill stream channels to the extent that they can no longer contain streamflow within their banks. This report presents an explanation of erosional and depositional processes in desert landscapes, especially those characterized by incised channels, for the use of those who use, manage, and live on such lands. The basic principles of erosion, sediment transport, and deposition are presented including the formation of sediment, the forces that erode and transport it, the forces that resist its erosion and transport, and the conditions that cause it to be deposited. The peculiarities of sedimentation processes in the Southwest include the infrequent and variable precipitation, the geological setting, and the sparseness of vegetation. A classification system for incised channels that is intended for users who do not necessarily have a background in fluvial hydrology has been developed and is presented in this report. The classification system is intended to enable a user to classify a reach of channel quickly on the basis of field observations. The system is based on the shape and condition of channels and on the sedimentation processes that are predominantly responsible for those conditions. Because those processes are controlled by environmental factors operating on the entire drainage basin, classification of channels can provide land managers and users with an understanding of what areas are likely to be most susceptible to erosion or the effects of high sedimentation rates and under what conditions they are most likely to occur.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Permitted water use in Iowa, 1985

This report summarizes where, how much and for what purpose water is allocated for use in Iowa with permits issued by the Department of Water, Air and Waste Management. In Iowa, from a total permitted water use of 855,175.45 million gallons per year, about 58 percent is from surface-water sources and about 42 percent is from ground-water sources. Streams are 80.5 percent of the total surface-water use and wells make up 80.1 percent of the total ground-water use, with 65.4 percent of ground water coming from surficial aquifers. Power generation is the use category that is permitted the largest amount of total water use, 46.6 percent, with surface water being the source of 96.7 percent and 77.9 percent of the surface water is from streams. The public water suppliers' category is the next largest use type with 15.7 percent of the total permitted water. Ground water constitutes 74.4 percent of the public water supplier category with 51.7 percent from surficial aquifers. Surface water makes up 25.6 percent of this category with 83.0 percent of the surface water withdrawn from streams. Mining comprises 13.4 percent of the total water use and is the third largest water-use category. Ground water is the source of 63.3 percent of permitted mining water use with 94.3 percent of this from quarries and sand and gravel pits. Surface water is the source of 36.7 percent of the permitted mining water use with 97.6 percent from streams. Irrigation is the fourth largest permitted use type using 12.0 percent of the total water use. Eighty-eight percent of irrigation is from ground-water sources where surficial aquifers account for 94.7 percent. Streams are 81.1 percent of irrigational surface-water use. Self-supplied industrial users are permitted 10.6 percent of the total permitted water use with 85.5 percent of this from ground-water sources and 14.5 percent from surface-water sources. Of the self-supplied industrial ground-water use, 47.9 percent comes from surficial aquifers and of the self-supplied industrial surface-water use 86.1 percent is from streams. Self-supplied commercial use is allocated 1.5 percent of the total permitted water. Surface-water is the source of 37.7 percent of this and 62.3 percent is from ground-water sources. Agricultural (non-irrigation) use is 0.3 percent of the total permitted water with 73.3 percent from groundwater sources and 26.7 percent from surface-water sources. The areas that are allocated the most water permits are east-central Iowa and west-central Iowa.

Iowa↗

Sources and characteristics of dissolved organic carbon in the McKenzie River, Oregon, related to the formation of disinfection by-products in treated drinking water

Executive Summary This study characterized the concentration and quality of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the McKenzie River, a relatively undeveloped watershed in western Oregon, and its link to forming disinfection by-products (DBPs) in treated drinking water. The study aimed to identify the primary source(s) of DOC in source water for the Eugene Water & Electric Board’s (EWEB) conventional treatment plant on the McKenzie River near river mile 11, upstream of Hayden Bridge. The two classes of regulated compounds examined—trihalomethanes (THMs) and haloacetic acids (HAAs)—form when organic carbon in raw source water reacts with chlorine and (or) bromine during water treatment. The objectives of the study were to: characterize the amount and quality of DOC in the McKenzie River and select tributaries during storms; identify the most common types of carbon using UV-vis spectroscopy and other methods; evaluate optical properties for predicting DBP precursors in surface water; and identify land cover classes or vegetation types that may be important sources of organic carbon and DBP precursors in EWEB’s source water. Eleven storms were sampled synoptically in upstream-to-downstream fashion to provide a “snapshot” of water quality conditions at four sites on the McKenzie River from Frissell Bridge (6 miles downstream from Trail Bridge Reservoir) to the EWEB water treatment plant at Hayden Bridge and nine contributing tributaries. Storms included late summer and early autumn “first flush” events and late autumn, winter, and spring storms spanning a range in streamflows from 3,000 to 26,000 cubic feet per second as measured in the main stem McKenzie River at the EWEB water intake. Water samples were analyzed for DOC concentrations and optical properties (fluorescence and ultraviolet absorbance [UVA]) across a range of wavelengths to characterize the quantity and quality of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in the McKenzie River at the drinking water intake and upstream locations. Paired sets of source and finished water samples were collected at the EWEB treatment plant to identify DOC quality parameters in raw source water that might predict DBP concentrations in finished drinking water. DOC concentrations were relatively low in the McKenzie River (0.4–3 milligrams per liter [mg/L]; average 1.5 mg/L) but much higher in the tributaries. The highest DOC concentrations occurred during “first flush” storms in October 2012 and September 2013; the highest value (16 mg/L) was measured at the 52nd Street stormwater outfall. The average DOC concentration in the lower basin-tributaries was 3.8 mg/L; three middle basin tributaries—Quartz, Gate, and Haagen Creeks, which drain private forestland with less coniferous forest compared with other higher elevation tributaries— had slightly lower average DOC concentrations (2.8 mg/L). These middle-basin watersheds may be important sources of DOC and DBP precursors to the McKenzie River, even more so than the lower basin tributaries, depending on their flows (and loads). This is particularly true after the September 2020 Holiday Farm fire, which burned much of this area. DOC concentrations increased 68 percent in the McKenzie River between the uppermost reference site at Frissell Bridge and Vida; this includes drainage from Quartz Creek, Blue River Lake and Cougar Reservoir, which all contributed DOC to the main stem. In contrast, the lowermost tributaries draining most of the agricultural and urban land did not have a large effect on DOC in the McKenzie River despite their higher DOC concentrations because of their presumed relatively low streamflows and, consequently, DOC loads. Apart from the continuous flow monitors in the McKenzie River and some tributaries (Blue River and South Fork McKenzie River, and streamflow at Hayden Bridge and Vida, Camp Creek and some other locations), streamflow was not assessed during sample collection for this study. This lack of streamflow data precludes a detailed analysis of loads, which is discussed in the future studies section. All DBP concentrations in finished drinking water were less than EPA maximum contaminant levels (MCLs) of 0.080 mg/L for the four trihalomethanes (THM4) and 0.060 mg/L for five haloacetic acids (HAA5). During the 11 storm sampling events the maximum summed concentrations were about 0.040 mg/L for both THM4 and HAA5. Compliance monitoring samples, collected separately by EWEB, yielded some higher concentrations—0.046 mg/L THM4 and 0.047 HAA5—during the December 2012 storm. The corresponding benchmark quotient (BQ) values, which indicate how close a measured DBP concentration is to the MCL, were 0.58 and 0.78, respectively, for THM4 and HAA5. Compared with a similar 2007–08 McKenzie River study that did not target storm events, concentrations of THM4 and HAA5 in finished water were 68 percent and 33 percent higher, respectively, during the current study. Due to the high dilution rates in the McKenzie River main stem, many of the individual fluorescence excitation-emission measurements were low (<0.1 Raman units) and approached analytical detection limits. Parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC) resulted in a five-component model (C1–C5) that represents five unique organic fluorophores. Components C1, C2, and C3 represent DOM associated with soil-derived, humic-like, more degraded organic matter. In contrast, components C4 and C5 represent “fresher” DOM, derived from terrestrial and aquatic plants, including algae and cyanobacteria that are common in the McKenzie River and its tributaries and reservoirs. The fluorescence data and PARAFAC modeling suggest that most of the DOC in the McKenzie River originated from terrestrial sources (primarily components C1 and C2). The largest increases in DOC in the main stem occurred in the reach upstream of Vida, from inflows by Quartz Creek, Blue River, South Fork McKenzie River, and other tributaries. Concentrations of DBPs in EWEB’s finished drinking water were positively correlated with DOC concentrations in raw source water (THM4, p <0.05; HAA5, p <0.01) for paired samples collected 12−24 hours apart. DOC concentrations were significantly positively correlated ( p <0.001) with laboratory-based fluorescent dissolved organic matter (fDOM) measurements, suggesting fDOM as a useful parameter for monitoring and predicting DOC concentration in surface water and DBP concentrations in finished water. Of all the PARAFAC components in surface water, C5 had the highest correlations with DBPs in finished water (rho = 0.77–0.84, p <0.01), followed by components C1 and C2 (rho = 0.75 and 0.71, respectively, p <0.01). This C5 carbon is associated with recently produced DOM, possibly from decomposed terrestrial and aquatic vegetation. Model loadings of these three components were considerably higher in the sampled tributaries relative to the main stem McKenzie River, with most of the observed increases in the main stem apparent at Vida. This points to Quartz Creek or other tributaries in the reach between Frissell Bridge and the sampling site near Vida (South Fork McKenzie and Blue Rivers) as potentially key contributors of DOM source material that leads to the production of DBPs in treated drinking water. A limited load analysis showed that the reservoirs contributed 8–37 percent of the instantaneous DOC loads observed at Vida at the time of sampling, which suggests other sources such as Quartz Creek and other streams in the reach between Frissell Bridge and Vida are more important. Random forest analyses identified PARAFAC components C1 and C5 and fluorescence peaks A, C, M, T and N as the best predictors for HAA5 concentrations in finished drinking water, explaining 62.5 percent of the variation. The best predictors for THM4 were C1, C4 + C5, and peaks T, A, and N, which explained 33 percent of the variation. Several land cover and vegetation classes were correlated with DOC concentration and other optical measurements. The percentage of evergreen forest in each of the subwatersheds sampled was negatively correlated ( p <0.001) with DOC concentration and many optical indicators of DOM quantity: UVA 254 , fDOM, and all of the fluorescence peaks. In contrast, mixed (deciduous) forest was positively correlated ( p <0.001) with DOC, fDOM, UVA 254 , and several fluorescence peaks, demonstrating the importance of deciduous leaf fall in generating DOC and DBP precursors. The high level of human activities in the middle and lower portion of the basin—including timber harvesting and road construction on private forestland, agricultural, rural, industrial, and urban development—have resulted in the greatest loss in native coniferous and mixed deciduous forests in the basin. DOC loading from these tributaries and reservoir releases, which contain DOC from terrestrial and aquatic productivity, both enrich the McKenzie River. Concentrations of DOC increased an average of 71 percent (range 30–120 percent) in the McKenzie River between Frissell Bridge, the upstream reference site, and Vida. PARAFAC components C1, C2, and C5—which were correlated with DBPs in finished water—increased, on average, 109–136 percent (range 20–250 percent) in this same Frissell-to-Vida reach. These increases occur from input of tributaries in the middle basin such as Quartz Creek and others, as noted above. Future monitoring, field, and lab studies can improve our understanding of seasonal and spatial sources of organic carbon contributing DBP precursors to the McKenzie River and allow detection of long-term trends resulting from the recent Holiday Farm Fire, which burned 173,393 acres of forestland, including riparian areas along the main stem, and numerous structures, homes, and outbuildings in September 2020. Future studies could examine DOC fluxes and flushing of carbon from the watershed, investigate the role of precipitation amount and intensity in mobilizing carbon and sediment, and evaluate impacts to aquatic communities and human health as part of a post-fire assessment. Other areas ripe for study include evaluating the impacts of potential temperature increases on carbon sequestration and decomposition in the burned and unburned forests and identifying practices that foster sequestration of carbon in forest soils. The use of fluorescence sensors such as fDOM to monitor the concentration and composition of raw water supplies may be improved for detection of specific DBP precursors, to provide continuous and real-time information to treatment plant operators. Future studies that monitor DOM amount and quality, and DBP Formation Potential (FP), particularly during storm events, paired with streamflow measurements, as suggested above, could help identify areas that contribute high DOC loads and thus help managers identify the key areas to focus restoration activities. Other studies could examine treatment options for currently regulated DBPs and potentially unregulated compounds, including advanced biological treatments for their removal. This study was a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and EWEB in Eugene, Oregon, with additional funding provided from USGS Cooperative Matching Funds Program.

Oregon↗

Mangrove habitat persistence and carbon vulnerability associated with increased nutrient loading and sea-level rise at Ding Darling National Wildlife Refuge (Sanibel Island, Florida, USA)

J.N. “Ding” Darling National Wildlife Refuge (DDNWR) is located on Sanibel Island along the southwestern coast of Florida, USA. Sanibel Island is heavily developed, but DDNWR provides protection for a large mangrove area that supports biodiversity and recreational opportunity. However, nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) eutrophication attributed to agriculture discharge along the Caloosahatchee River has affected the area’s aquatic habitat with algal blooms and may be causing untimely degradation of Sanibel’s mangrove forests. We launched a series of studies to understand how additional nutrient loading to the levels expected in the future might affect DDNWR’s mangrove resource. We experimentally fertilized selected mangrove forest areas with N fertilizer (+N; NH4) and P fertilizer (+P; P 2 O 5 ) for three years, and monitored soil surface elevation change, soil and pneumatophore CO 2 fluxes from respiration, mangrove tree sap flow from two species ( Avicennia germinans , Rhizophora mangle ), and individual tree and stand water use, from which we developed carbon (C) budgets for +N and +P vs. control simulations as applied to DDNWR’s 1112 ha mangrove area. Many of the measured response variables provided hints of subtle changes in response to +P rather than +N, which were compounded when scaled. From this, we found that additional P loading is expected to stimulate CO 2 uptake via net ecosystem exchange of C, likely pressing the system beyond metabolic capacity and leading to a projected 41% increase in lateral C export to the estuary. Additional lateral C export is concomitant to a reduction in vertical soil surface elevation with +P. Furthermore, an inability of DDNWR’s mangroves to bury additional P and a release of P-bound ions to lateral export may exacerbate estuarine eutrophication. We also modelled the effect of sea-level rise influences on DDNWR’s mangroves through 2100 using a soil cohort model (WARMER-Mangroves) and found that the mangroves may be resilient to current rates of sea-level rise into the future but may also be susceptible to moderate accelerations. Greater eutrophication could create additional vulnerabilities to mangrove submergence, especially to basin mangroves where P concentrations are high and already reducing soil surface elevations in some mangroves. Our results suggest that amelioration of current P concentrations and avoidance of additional P loading to Sanibel Island’s mangroves are management options to consider.

Florida↗

Mapping winter cover crops using remote sensing of crop phenology

Winter cover crops (WCC) are an effective agricultural conservation practice for improving soil health and water quality. Several U.S. states have established incentive programs to promote planting WCC between cash crop rotations. In recent years, the area planted with WCC has steadily increased due to these efforts, although the planting area varies among states. Since these programs are largely led by individual counties or state programs, there is no centralized data repository that quantifies the total WCC planted annually or their locations. Therefore, there is a practical need to identify fields that have been planted with WCC, as well as to quantify the total planted area both during and after the growing season. Furthermore, incentive programs often require verification that WCC were planted to release payments to participating growers in a timely manner. Satellite remote sensing time series can provide information on WCC growth status. However, it remains unclear what kind of WCC the remote sensing data detects. For example, separating WCC from weeds and winter commodity crops remains a challenge. Additionally, a binary classification of WCC presence and absence cannot accurately describe the category and performance of the WCC. This paper presents a new remote sensing phenology-based approach to map WCC likelihood. We assessed model predictions of WCC likelihood using WCC planting records and ground observations over fields at the Beltsville Agricultural Research Center (BARC) from 2018 to 2024. Regional WCC maps were assessed using the Maryland Department of Agriculture's records of WCC fields enrolled in the 2019 and 2020 incentive programs. Our results show that the balanced overall accuracy for WCC and non-WCC ranges from 75% to 85% but could exceed 90%, with limited training samples. However, the high accuracy of WCC corresponds with low accuracy for non-WCC due to confusion with weeds and perennial grasses. Early-season detection yields promising results, with overall accuracies comparable to late-season detection. The after-season detection can differentiate between winter cereal grain cash crops and incentive WCC based on the ending date of the growing season. With a small set of WCC samples and management information, the phenology-based mapping approach offers a rapid and scalable solution for mapping WCC over a large region during or after each WCC growing season.

Maryland↗

True metabolizable energy for wood ducks from acorns compared to other waterfowl foods

Acorns of bottomland red oaks (Quercus spp.) are an important food of North American wood ducks (Aix sponsa). Barras et al. (1996) demonstrated that female wood ducks selected willow oak (Q. phellos) acorns over other species. We measured true metabolizable energy (TME) derived by captive, wild-strain, adult female wood ducks from acorns of willow oak, water oak (Q. nigra), cherrybark oak (Q. pagoda), and pin oak (Q. palustris) to determine whether female wood ducks ' preference for willow oak acorns was related to TME. Estimates of TME within acorn species were relatively precise, yet we did not detect variation in TME among acorn species (P=0.31); hence, we estimated TME across species (2.76±0.033 [SE] kcal/g dry mass; n=34). We concluded that TME apparently did not explain female wood ducks ' preference for willow oak acorns and hypothesized that morphological characteristics of willow oak acorns may be proximate cues related to selection by wood ducks . We also summarized known TME estimates for acorns fed to wood ducks and mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), and natural and agricultural foods fed to mallards, northern pintails (A. acuta), blue-winged teal (A. discors), and Canada geese (Branta canadensis). We found that acorns and moist-soil plant seeds and tubers provided, on average, about 76% of the TME in agricultural seeds. Thus, bottomland-hardwood and moist-soil habitats have potential to provide significant amounts of dietary energy , as well as greater diversity of foods and nutrients than croplands. Researchers should continue to determine TME of common foods (plant and animal) of waterfowl , and use TME in estimating waterfowl habitat carrying capacity (e.g., Reinecke et al. 1989). Additionally, large-scale, reliable estimates of plant and animal food availability in bottomland-hardwood and moist-soil habitats are needed to evaluate carrying capacity of landscapes important to waterfowl , such as the Mississippi Alluvial Valley (MAV).

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Understanding conservation decisions of agriculture producers

Most land in the United States (US) is privately owned and used for agriculture. To address the effect of agriculture on wildlife, conservation professionals and organizations need to understand the land use decisions made by farmers and ranchers. We developed a tool for categorizing farmers and ranchers by their conservation land use values (LUVs) to understand how those values affect their land use motivations and resultant decisions. We defined land as the whole natural environment including soil, water, plants, fish, and wildlife. We used principal axis factoring and reliability analysis to identify statements representing human-centered values and nature-centered values of farmers and ranchers. We tested the validity of the combined statements with a survey of South Dakota’s private landowners (N = 4,000, [Jan through May 2016]) resulting in the LUV scale. Crossing the average scores on the human-centered and nature-centered statements identified 4 LUV types: humans first (20%), nature first (29%), interconnected (29%), and disconnected (22%). Analysis of variance and chi-square tests showed that, compared to the humans first and disconnected LUV types, the nature first and interconnected LUV types reported significantly greater importance of the following: most categories of types of wildlife in their land use decisions; conservation-related motivations for participating in a United States Farm Bill Conservation Program; conservation-related motivations for land use decisions; and participation in conservation-related behaviors. Conservation professionals and organizations may use the LUV scale to better understand landowners’ land use decisions to evaluate and inform conservation policy, programs, messaging, and improve conservation outcomes.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Groundwater-level and storage-volume changes in the Equus Beds aquifer near Wichita, Kansas, predevelopment through January 2015

Development of the Wichita well field began in the 1940s in the Equus Beds aquifer to provide the city of Wichita, Kansas, a new water-supply source. After development of the Wichita well field began, groundwater levels began to decline. Extensive development of irrigation wells that began in the 1970s also contributed to substantial groundwater-level declines. Groundwater-level declines likely enhance movement of brine from past oil and gas production near Burrton, Kansas, and natural saline water from the Arkansas River into the Wichita well field. Groundwater levels reached a historical minimum in 1993 because of drought conditions, irrigation, and the city of Wichita&rsquo;s withdrawals from the aquifer. In 1993, the city of Wichita adopted the Integrated Local Water Supply Program to ensure that Wichita&rsquo;s water needs would be met through the year 2050 and beyond as part of its efforts to manage the part of the Equus Beds aquifer Wichita uses. A key component of the Integrated Local Water Supply Program was the Equus Beds Aquifer Storage and Recovery project. The Aquifer Storage and Recovery project&rsquo;s goal is to store and eventually recover groundwater and help protect the Equus Beds aquifer from oil-field brine water near Burrton, Kansas, and saline water from the Arkansas River. Since 1940, the U.S. Geological Survey has monitored groundwater levels and storage-volume changes in the Equus Beds aquifer to provide data to the city of Wichita in order to better manage its water supply. Groundwater mostly flowed from west to east in the shallow and deep parts of the Equus Beds aquifer in January 2015. A large area of declines greater than 10 feet in the shallow part of the Equus Beds aquifer from predevelopment (before substantial pumpage began in the area in September 1940) to January 2015 covered most of the central part of the study area, where the city of Wichita well field is located, and extended beyond it. Groundwater-level rises of greater than 10 feet from 1993 (the historical minimum groundwater levels) to January 2015 covered most of the central part of the study area in the shallow and deep parts of the Equus Beds aquifer; rises of greater than 20 feet mostly were within the north-central part of the study area. The 1993 to January 2015 recovery of storage volume previously lost from predevelopment to 1993 was about 46 percent (55,200 acre-feet) for the central part of the study area and the percentage recovery was larger than the 31 percent (59,800 acre-feet) recovery for the entire study area. Groundwater-level rises and the larger percentage recovery of storage volume in the central part of the study area was most likely a result of the city of Wichita adopting the Integrated Local Water Supply Program strategy which reduced Wichita&rsquo;s pumpage from the Equus Beds aquifer in 2014 to the smallest amount since 1940. January 2015 storage volumes were about 96 percent (3,057,000 acre-feet) and 94 percent (960,000 acre-feet) of total aquifer storage for the study area and the central part of the study area, respectively. Groundwater levels from January 2014 to January 2015 in the central part of the study area rose about 3 feet in some places, probably because Wichita reduced its withdrawals from the aquifer in 2014 by more than 50 percent. Groundwater levels probably recovered less than anticipated because of decreased recharge and net groundwater flow and increased agricultural pumpage. A volumetric water budget for the central part of the study area between 2013 and 2014 showed that the substantial decrease in total pumping (10,412 acre-feet) did not result in an increase in storage volume because it was more than offset by decreased recharge (6,502 acre-feet; artificial and from precipitation) and an even greater decrease in net groundwater flow (11,710 acre-feet).

Kansas↗

Hydrologic, land cover, and seasonal patterns of waterborne pathogens in Great Lakes tributaries

Great Lakes tributaries are known to deliver waterborne pathogens from a host of sources. To examine the hydrologic, land cover, and seasonal patterns of waterborne pathogens (i.e. protozoa (2), pathogenic bacteria (4) human viruses, (8) and bovine viruses (8)) eight rivers were monitored in the Great Lakes Basin over 29 months from February 2011 to June 2013. Sampling locations represented a wide variety of land cover classes from urban to agriculture to forest. A custom automated pathogen sampler was deployed at eight sampling locations which provided unattended, flow-weighted, large-volume (120–1630 L) sampling. Human and bovine viruses and pathogenic bacteria were detected by real-time qPCR in 16%, 14%, and 1.4% of 290 samples collected while protozoa were never detected. The most frequently detected pathogens were: bovine polyomavirus (11%), and human adenovirus C, D, F (9%). Human and bovine viruses were present in 16.9% and 14.8% of runoff-event samples (n = 189) resulting from precipitation and snowmelt, and 13.9% and 12.9% of low-flow samples (n = 101), respectively, indicating multiple delivery mechanisms could be influential. Data indicated human and bovine virus prevalence was different depending on land cover within the watershed. Occurrence, concentration, and flux of human viruses were greatest in samples from the three sampling locations with greater than 25% urban influence than those with less than 25% urban influence. Similarly, occurrence, concentration, and flux of bovine viruses were greatest in samples from the two sampling locations with greater than 50 cattle/km 2 than those with less than 50 cattle/km 2 . In seasonal analysis, human and bovine viruses occurred more frequently in spring and winter seasons than during the fall and summer. Concentration, occurrence, and flux in the context of hydrologic condition, seasonality, and land use must be considered for each watershed individually to develop effective watershed management strategies for pathogen reduction.

Great Lakes tributaries↗

Anthropogenic and environmental risk factors of salmonid predation in a tidal freshwater delta

Water diversions that support agricultural and municipal use result in fish mortality through entrainment and impingement. Additionally, this infrastructure may attract both predators and prey fishes, thereby increasing predation rates and prey mortality near these anthropogenic contact points. The Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta (the Delta) in California's Central Valley is a tidal freshwater ecosystem that exports large volumes of water for municipal and agricultural use while at the same time providing valuable migratory and rearing habitat for imperilled fishes. Emigrating juvenile salmonids experience high mortality in the Delta, with predation by non-native fishes contributing substantially. Therefore, this study had three main objectives. First, we determined if small water diversions aggregated piscivorous fishes like other similar structures in freshwater ecosystems. Second, we determined how small diversions may influence juvenile salmon predation risk in conjunction with other known predation risk factors (e.g. predator abundance, temperature and depth). Third, we assessed the predator assemblage, abundance and distribution to determine the likely predator composition in objectives one and two. Throughout the spring of 2021, we used ARIS (adaptive resolution imaging sonar; Sound Metrics) sonars to compare piscivore abundance at 30 water diversions in the north Delta to shorelines adjacent to diversions that did not contain these structures. We used predation event recorders (PERs) to assess the predation risk juvenile salmonids were exposed to, with linear distance (m) from diversions, and other predation risk factors in the north Delta. Finally, we used a boat electrofishing survey to determine the piscivore assemblage and compare spatial trends in black bass ( Micropterus spp.) CPUE and relative abundance throughout these waterways. Piscivore abundance was greater near small water diversions than at adjacent shorelines and the predation risk of juvenile salmonids increased with diversion proximity. Additionally, predation risk increased with increasing piscivore abundance and decreasing water depth. The north Delta predator assemblage was dominated by black basses ( Micropterus spp.), which likely drove the negative relationship of predation risk with water depth, given habitat requirements of these species. Furthermore, increasing smallmouth ( Micropterus dolomieu ) and spotted bass ( Micropterus punctulatus ) abundance in our northern study sites may have weakened temperature effects on predation, given metabolic requirements of these species. Our work demonstrated that small water diversions are likely to increase mortality of endangered salmonids, and that the north Delta predator assemblage was different than recorded by previous work in this system, changing predation risk factors. Although more work is needed to determine the population level impacts of diversions, the ubiquitous distribution of these structures warrants management solutions to reduce mortality from this source. These results indicate that in addition to entrainment and impingement, water diversions may increase mortality of small-bodied fishes by attracting predators and elevating predation risk. Given the continual human demand for freshwater, predator–prey interactions should be considered along with entrainment and impingement when assessing intake infrastructure mitigation, especially when diversions co-occur along migratory routes and essential habitat of imperilled fishes.

California↗

Analysis of ambient conditions and simulation of hydrodynamics, constituent transport, and water-quality characteristics in Lake Maumelle, Arkansas, 1991-92

Lake Maumelle is the major drinking-water source for the Little Rock metropolitan area in central Arkansas. Urban and agricultural development has increased in the Lake Maumelle Basin and information is needed related to constituent transport and water quality response to changes in constituent loading or hydrologic regime. This report characterizes ambient conditions in Lake Maumelle and its major tributary, Maumelle River; describes the calibration and verification of a numerical model of hydrodynamics and water quality; and provides several simulations that describe constituent transport and water quality response to changes in constituent loading and hydrologic regime. Ambient hydrologic and water-quality conditions demonstrate the relatively undisturbed nature of Lake Maumelle and the Maumelle River. Nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations were low, one to two orders of magnitude lower than estimates of national background nutrient concentrations. Phosphorus and chlorophyll a concentrations in Lake Maumelle demonstrate its oligotrophic/mesotrophic condition. However, concentrations of chlorophyll a appeared to increase since 1990 within the upper and middle reaches of the reservoir. A two-dimensional, laterally averaged hydrodynamic and water-quality model developed and calibrated for Lake Maumelle simulates water level, currents, heat transport and temperature distribution, conservative material transport, and the transport and transformation of 11 chemical constituents. Simulations included the movement and dispersion of spills or releases in the reservoir during stratified and unstratified conditions, release of the fish nursery pond off the southern shore of Lake Maumelle, and algal responses to changes in external loading. The model was calibrated using 1991 data and verified using 1992 data. Simulated temperature and dissolved oxygen concentrations related well when compared to measured values. Simulated nutrient and algal biomass also related reasonably well when compared to measured values. A simulated spill of conservative material at the upper end of Lake Maumelle during a major storm event took less than 102 hours to disperse the entire length of the reservoir. Simulation of a nursery pond release into a tributary to Lake Maumelle demonstrated how the released water plunges within the receiving embayment and enters the main stem of the reservoir at mid depths. Simulations of algal response to increases of nitrogen and phosphorus loads demonstrate the phosphorus limiting condition in Lake Maumelle. Results from this study will provide water-resource management with information to better understand how changes in hydrology and water quality in the basin affects water quality in the reservoir. With this information, managers will be able to more effectively manage their drinking-water source supply.

Arkansas↗

Impacts of climate change on ecosystem services

Key Findings By 2050, climate change will triple the fraction of counties in the U.S. that are at high or extremely high risk of outstripping their water supplies (from 10 percent to 32 percent). The most at risk areas in the U.S. are the West, Southwest and Great Plains regions. Regulation of drinking water quality will be strained as high rainfall and river discharge conditions may lead to higher levels of nitrogen in rivers and greater risk of waterborne disease outbreaks. Climate change will have uneven effects on timber production across the U.S. Recent increases in tree mortality due to disease and pests, and the intensity of fires and area burned will continue to destroy productive forests. On the other hand, in some regions climate change is expected to boost overall forest productivity due to longer growing seasons. There is a better than 50 percent chance that climate change will overwhelm the ability of natural systems to mitigate the harm to people resulting from extreme weather events (such as heat waves, heavy rains, and drought). Vulnerability of people and property in coastal areas is highly likely to increase dramatically – due to the effects of sea-level rise, storm surge, and the loss of habitats that provide protection from flooding and erosion. The areas at greatest risk to coastal hazards in the U.S. are the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. The human communities most vulnerable to climate-related increases in coastal hazards are the elderly and the poor who are less able to respond quickly before and during hazards and to respond over the long term through relocation. Changes in abundance and ranges of commercially important marine fish are highly likely to result in loss of some local fisheries, and increases in value for others if fishing communities and management practices can adapt. In recreation and tourism, the greatest negative climate impacts will continue to be felt in winter sports and beach recreation (due to coastal erosion). Other forms of recreation are highly likely to increase due to better weather, leading to a redistribution of the industry and its economic impacts, with visitors and tourism dollars shifting away from some communities in favor of others. Supporting, regulating, and provisioning ecosystem services all contribute to food security in the United States, and the fate of the nation’s food production are very likely to depend on the interplay of these services and how the agriculture and fishery sectors respond to climate stresses.

Book chapter↗

A comparative analysis of OpenET for evaluating evapotranspiration in California almond orchards

The almond industry in California faces water management challenges that are being exacerbated by droughts, climate change, and groundwater sustainability legislation. The Tree-crop Remote sensing of Evapotranspiration eXperiment (T-REX) aims to explore opportunities to improve precision irrigation management for woody perennial cropping systems. Almond orchards in the California Central Valley were equipped with eddy covariance flux measurements to evaluate satellite remote sensing-based evapotranspiration (RSET) models. OpenET provides high-resolution (30-m spatial and daily temporal) RSET data, synthesizing decades of research for practical water management. This study provides an evaluation of OpenET performance at six almond sites covering a large range in soils, age, and variety. It also compares OpenET ensemble evapotranspiration (ET) data with applied irrigation and precipitation records over an additional 148 almond orchards located in the Central Valley of California. Results show OpenET models, including the ensemble ET value, produced reasonable and actionable ET values, with overall coefficient of determination (R 2 ) and mean absolute error values of 0.73- and 0.95-mm d −1 at the daily time step, respectively. However, given the temporal sampling of Landsat (8-day revisit) and the interpolation methods used, the assessed ET models had difficulty in capturing short-term variability in almond ET; for example, the rapid decline in measured ET observed as a response to lack of irrigation preceding and during almond harvest. The study also drew attention to the spatial complexity in scenarios where irrigated orchards are surrounded by hot/dry areas, causing discrepancies between measured and modeled ET values. In comparison with irrigation records, OpenET ensemble ET was capable of quantifying water input (applied irrigation + precipitation) in almond orchards to within 13 % when evaluating monthly data. Initial results presented here reinforce the idea that RSET models, such as in OpenET, are powerful tools, yet their application requires nuanced understanding and careful consideration of local conditions.

California↗

The influence of nutrients and physical habitat in regulating algal biomass in agricultural streams

This study examined the relative influence of nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) and habitat on algal biomass in five agricultural regions of the United States. Sites were selected to capture a range of nutrient conditions, with 136 sites distributed over five study areas. Samples were collected in either 2003 or 2004, and analyzed for nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorous) and algal biomass (chlorophyll a ). Chlorophyll a was measured in three types of samples, fine-grained benthic material (CHL FG ), coarse-grained stable substrate as in rock or wood (CHL CG ), and water column (CHL S ). Stream and riparian habitat were characterized at each site. TP ranged from 0.004–2.69 mg/l and TN from 0.15–21.5 mg/l, with TN concentrations highest in Nebraska and Indiana streams and TP highest in Nebraska. Benthic algal biomass ranged from 0.47–615 mg/m 2 , with higher values generally associated with coarse-grained substrate. Seston chlorophyll ranged from 0.2–73.1 μg/l, with highest concentrations in Nebraska. Regression models were developed to predict algal biomass as a function of TP and/or TN. Seven models were statistically significant, six for TP and one for TN; r 2 values ranged from 0.03 to 0.44. No significant regression models could be developed for the two study areas in the Midwest. Model performance increased when stream habitat variables were incorporated, with 12 significant models and an increase in the r 2 values (0.16–0.54). Water temperature and percent riparian canopy cover were the most important physical variables in the models. While models that predict algal chlorophyll a as a function of nutrients can be useful, model strength is commonly low due to the overriding influence of stream habitat. Results from our study are presented in context of a nutrient-algal biomass conceptual model.

Environmental Management↗