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Distribution of adult Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in relation to water temperatures, Lake Scanewa, Cowlitz River, Washington, 2012

A trap-and-haul program is operated to move anadromous Pacific salmon ( Oncorhynchus spp.) around dams and reservoirs in the Cowlitz River basin, Washington. The primary release site for adult fish is in Lake Scanewa, a small reservoir created by Cowlitz Falls Dam, the uppermost dam in the basin. Releases in the reservoir are terminated when reservoir water temperature is 16 degrees Celsius (°C) or greater to reduce the risk of exposing adult salmon and steelhead ( O. mykiss ) to thermal conditions known to be stressful for these species. When the water temperature limit is reached, fish are released into the Cowlitz and Cispus Rivers upstream of the reservoir. Concerns have been raised about fish presence in the reservoir during warm conditions, so an empirical evaluation of water temperatures selected by spring Chinook salmon ( O. tshawytscha ) in Lake Scanewa was requested by resource managers. We conducted the evaluation during June–October 2012. Water temperature in the reservoir was measured using a series of thermographs combined with daily measurements at the Cowlitz Falls Fish Facility. Temperature-use data were collected from 50 adult hatchery-origin spring Chinook salmon tagged with temperature-sensing radio transmitters and released into the reservoir. This approach yielded a total of 930,056 individual temperature-use records in the reservoir during the study. Tagged fish occupied water temperatures less than 16 °C during most of the study period. Water temperatures ranged from 5 to 18.5 °C during the study, peaking in mid-August. Overall, about 25 percent of the detections of tagged fish were in water temperatures in the 16–20 °C range. In August, tagged fish detections in the 18–20 °C range comprised 13 percent of the total detections, and the remainder of the detections were in water less than or equal to 17 °C. Results from the study indicate that adult hatchery-origin spring Chinook salmon were able to locate and use water temperatures in the reservoir less than levels associated with stress. However, we also observed that thermal conditions in the reservoir were cool relative to most other years during 2008–16. Additional research may be warranted to better understand thermal exposure of adult spring Chinook salmon during warmer years.

Washington↗

Regional walrus abundance estimate in the United States Chukchi Sea in autumn

Human activities (e.g., shipping, tourism, oil, gas development) have increased in the Chukchi Sea because of declining sea ice. The declining sea ice itself and these activities may affect Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ) abundance; however, previous walrus abundance estimates have been notably imprecise. When sea ice is absent from the eastern Chukchi Sea, walruses in waters of the United States usually rest together onshore at a single Alaska coastal haulout, where they can be surveyed more easily than when they rest on dispersed offshore ice floes. We estimated the number of walruses on land (herd size) at this haulout from 13 unoccupied aircraft system (UAS) surveys flown within a 10-day period in each of 2018 and 2019. We estimated population size of walruses using the haulout over the course of the surveys by combining herd size data with data from satellite-linked transmitters that indicated whether tagged walruses were in or out of water during each survey. Our estimates of the population size of walruses using the haulout during each year's survey period were similar to each other and more precise than historical walrus abundance estimates: posterior means (95% credibility intervals) were 166,000 (133,000–201,000) for 2018 and 189,000 (135,000–251,000) for 2019. Auxiliary observations support using these estimates to represent the size of the population using the eastern Chukchi Sea in autumn during the surveyed years. Our study site was the only substantial Chukchi Sea coastal haulout in the United States during the survey periods and study-specific tracking data (consistent with known distribution and movement patterns) indicated tagged walruses remained in eastern Chukchi waters during the survey periods. In addition, the imagery, telemetry, and analytical methods developed for this study advance the prospect for precise range-wide walrus population size estimates.

Alaska↗

Taxonomic, temporal, and spatial variations in zooplankton fatty acid composition in Puget Sound, WA, USA

Fatty acid (FA) content and composition of zooplankton in Puget Sound, Washington (USA) was studied to investigate the nutritional quality of diverse zooplankton prey for juvenile salmon ( Oncorhynchus spp.) in terms of their essential fatty acid (EFA) content. The study focus was on eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA), docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), and arachidonic acid (ARA) as these are key FA needed to maintain growth and development of juvenile fish. The different zooplankton taxa varied in their FA composition. Much of the variation in FA composition was driven by 18:1ω9 (a biomarker of carnivory), ARA, DHA, and FA characteristic of diatoms, which are linked to zooplankton diet sources. Gammarid and hyperiid amphipods contained the highest amount of EFA, particularly the gammarid amphipod Cyphocaris challengeri , while shrimp and copepods had much lower EFA content. Crab larvae, which are important prey for juvenile salmon in Puget Sound, had intermediate EPA + DHA content and the lowest DHA/EPA ratio, and were rich in diatom biomarkers. Temporal and spatial trends in zooplankton lipids were less apparent than the taxonomic differences, although the EFA content increased from spring to summer in Cancridae zoeae and the amphipod C. challengeri . These results on taxon-specific EFA content provide baseline information on the nutritional quality of zooplankton that can be applied in food web models. Combining zooplankton fatty acid data (quality) with taxon-specific zooplankton biomass data (quantity) enables development of new, sensitive indicators of juvenile fish production to help assess recent declines in salmon production in the Pacific Northwest and predict future adult returns.

Washington↗

Do common eiders nest in kin groups? Microgeographic genetic structure in a philopatric sea duck

We investigated local genetic associations among female Pacific common eiders (Somateria mollissima v-nigrum) nesting in a stochastic Arctic environment within two groups of barrier islands (Simpson Lagoon and Mikkelsen Bay) in the Beaufort Sea, Alaska. Nonrandom genetic associations were observed among nesting females using regional spatial autocorrelation analyses for distance classes up to 1000 m in Simpson Lagoon. Nearest-neighbour analyses identified clusters of genetically related females with positive lr values observed for 0-13% and 0-7% of the comparisons in Simpson Lagoon and Mikkelsen Bay, respectively, across years. These results indicate that a proportion of females are nesting in close proximity to more genetically related individuals, albeit at low frequency. Such kin groupings may form through active association between relatives or through natal philopatry and breeding site fidelity. Eiders nest in close association with driftwood, which is redistributed annually by seasonal storms. Yet, genetic associations were still observed. Microgeographic structure may thus be more attributable to kin association than natal philopatry and site fidelity. However, habitat availability may also influence the level of structure observed. Regional structure was present only within Simpson Lagoon and this island group includes at least three islands with sufficient driftwood for colonies, whereas only one island at Mikkelsen Bay has these features. A long-term demographic study is needed to understand more fully the mechanisms that lead to fine-scale genetic structure observed in common eiders breeding in the Beaufort Sea. ?? Published 2010. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Molecular Ecology↗

Rare earth element behavior during groundwater – seawater mixing along the Kona Coast of Hawaii

Groundwater and seawater samples were collected from nearshore wells and offshore along the Kona Coast of the Big Island of Hawaii to investigate rare earth element (REE) behavior in local subterranean estuaries. Previous investigations showed that submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) is the predominant flux of terrestrial waters to the coastal ocean along the arid Kona Coast of Hawaii. Groundwater and seawater samples were filtered through 0.45 μm and 0.02 μm pore-size filters to evaluate the importance of colloidal and soluble (i.e., truly dissolved ionic species and/or low molecular weight [LMW] colloids) fractions of the REEs in the local subterranean estuaries. Mixing experiments using groundwater collected immediately down gradient from a wastewater treatment facility (WWTF) proximal to the Kaloko-Hanokohau National Historic Park, and more “pristine” groundwater from a well constructed in a lava tube at Kiholo Bay, were mixed with local seawater to study the effect of solution composition (i.e., pH, salinity) on the concentrations and fractionation behavior of the REEs as groundwater mixes with seawater in Kona Coast subterranean estuaries. The mixed waters were also filtered through 0.45 or 0.02 μm filters to ascertain the behavior of colloidal and soluble fractions of the REEs across the salinity gradient in each mixing experiment. Concentrations of the REEs were statistically identical (two-tailed Student t -test, 95% confidence) between the sequentially filtered sample aliquots, indicating that the REEs occur as dissolved ionic species and/or LMW colloids in Kona Coast groundwaters. The mixing experiments revealed that the REEs are released to solution from suspended particles or colloids when Kona Coast groundwater waters mix with local seawater. The order of release that accompanies increasing pH and salinity follows light REE (LREE) > middle REE (MREE) > heavy REE (HREE). Release of REEs in the mixing experiments is driven by decreases in the free metal ion activity in solution and the concomitant increase in the amount of each REE that occurs in solution as dicarbonato complexes [i.e., Ln(CO 3 ) 2 - ] as pH increases across the salinity gradient. Input-normalized REE patterns of Kona Coast groundwater and coastal seawater are nearly identical and relatively flat compared to North Pacific seawater, indicating that SGD is the chief source of these trace elements to the ocean along the Kona Coast. Additionally, REE concentrations of the coastal seawater are between 10 and 50 times higher than previously reported open-ocean seawater values from the North Pacific, further demonstrating the importance of SGD fluxes of REEs to these coastal waters. Taken together, these observations indicate that large-scale removal of REEs, which characterizes the behavior of REEs in the low salinity reaches of many surface estuaries, is not a feature of the subterranean estuary along the Kona Coast. A large positive gadolinium (Gd) anomaly characterizes groundwater from the vicinity of the WWTF. The positive Gd anomaly can be traced to the coastal ocean, providing further evidence of the impact of SGD on the coastal waters. Estimates of the SGD fluxes of the REEs to the coastal ocean along the Kona Coast (i.e., 1.3 – 2.6 mmol Nd day -1 ) are similar to recent estimates of SGD fluxes of REEs along Florida’s east coast and to Rhode Island Sound, all of which points to the importance of SGD as significant flux of REEs to the coastal ocean.

Hawaii↗

Environmental tracers of groundwater source, age, and geochemical evolution

Hexavalent chromium, Cr(VI), was discharged in cooling wastewater to unlined surface ponds from 1952 to 1964 and reached the underlying unconsolidated aquifer at the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) Hinkley compressor station in the Mojave Desert, 80 miles northeast of Los Angeles, California. A suite of environmental tracers was analyzed in water samples collected from more than 100 wells to characterize the source, age, and geochemical evolution of groundwater within and near the Cr(VI) plume in Hinkley and Water Valleys. This information was used to help determine the extent of Cr(VI) associated with releases from the Hinkley compressor station and to identify Cr(VI) associated with natural sources. The source of water in most wells, indicated by stable oxygen and hydrogen isotope values for water, delta oxygen-18 and delta deuterium, was recharge by infiltration of intermittent surface flows in the Mojave River. With the exception of small flows in 1958, the Mojave River was largely dry between 1952 and 1969. This dry period spans the period of Cr(VI) releases from the Hinkley compressor station; 1952–69 also spans the period of high tritium levels in precipitation resulting from the atmospheric testing of nuclear weapons and, as a consequence, tritium concentrations in groundwater in Hinkley Valley were comparatively low. Groundwater ages (time since recharge) increased downgradient from the Mojave River and with depth. Tritium, measured by helium ingrowth with a study reporting level of 0.05 tritium unit, was detected in water from 51 percent of wells, with detectable tritium as far as 7 miles downgradient from the Mojave River. Tritium concentrations were higher, and tritium/helium-3 groundwater ages younger, in water from wells near the Mojave River and in water from shallower wells downgradient. Agricultural pumping has decreased groundwater levels as much as 60 feet since 1952. As a result of this pumping, some groundwater containing tritium, and presumably anthropogenic Cr(VI), has been removed from the aquifer. The distribution of wells having carbon-14 activities near or greater than 100-percent modern carbon, consistent with post-1952 recharge water, was similar to the distribution of wells containing detectable tritium. Carbon-14 activities as low as 8.9-percent modern carbon, with carbon-14 ages (unadjusted for reactions with aquifer materials) of almost 20,000 years before present (ybp), were sampled in water from some deep wells. Hexavalent chromium concentrations in older groundwater were as high as 11 micrograms per liter but did not exceed 3.6 micrograms per liter in older water from wells completed in “Mojave-type” deposits (composed of felsic Mojave River stream and near-shore lake deposits sourced from the Mojave River); this value may represent an upper limit on Cr(VI) concentrations in groundwater within Mojave-type deposits that likely approximates background Cr(VI) concentrations in the study area. Chlorofluorocarbons were released to the atmosphere and hydrologic cycle as a result of industrial activity beginning in the 1930s. Chlorofluorocarbon data were not generally suitable for groundwater-age dating in Hinkley and Water Valley because of nonatmospheric contributions from local sources. Strontium-87/86 isotope ratios and stable chromium isotopes, delta chromium-53, provide information on the geochemical evolution of groundwater in the aquifer. Highly radiogenic strontium-87/86 ratios greater than 0.71000 were present in water from wells completed in coarse-textured Mojave-type deposits having low chromium concentrations but were not diagnostic of these materials. Nonradiogenic strontium-87/86 ratios less than 0.70950 were diagnostic of weathered materials in the northern subarea of Hinkley and in Water Valley that were eroded from Miocene (23–5 million ybp) deposits east of the study area. Values for delta chromium-53 ranged from near 0 to 2.8 parts per thousand (‰) difference. The extent of reductive fractionation, mixing with native groundwater, and longitudinal dispersion within the October–December 2015 (Q4 2015) regulatory Cr(VI) plume can be estimated on the basis of the delta chromium-53 isotope composition of groundwater within the plume. Reduction of Cr(VI) to trivalent chromium, Cr(III), can occur in the presence of natural reductants in oxic groundwater. Although not diagnostic of anthropogenic chromium at the concentrations of interest near the Q4 2015 regulatory Cr(VI) plume margin, delta chromium-53 data indicate anthropogenic Cr(VI) within the plume is not conservative and has reacted with aquifer materials; these reactions have removed some anthropogenic Cr(VI) from groundwater. Environmental tracers, and the distribution of modern (post-1952) and premodern (pre-1952) groundwater, inform understanding of the extent of anthropogenic and naturally occurring Cr(VI) near the Q4 2015 regulatory Cr(VI) plume and the understanding of geochemical processes occurring in and near the margins of the Cr(VI) plume. The oxygen and hydrogen isotope compositions of water, tritium/helium-3 groundwater-age data, and carbon-14 data were used with mineralogy and chemistry data as part of a summative-scale analysis to determine the Cr(VI) plume extent later in this professional paper (chapter G).

California↗

Data on uranium and radium in ground water in the United States, 1954 to 1957

This report is one of a series resulting from a study by the U.S. Geological Survey to determine the occurrence and distribution of naturally radioactive substances in water. From 1954-57 uranium and radium concentrations were determined in 561 samples, mainly of ground water, having wide geologic and geographic distribution. These concentrations, together with data on the hydrologic and geologic environment, the beta-gamma activity, and the chemical characteristics of each sample, are tabulated by States. The conterminous United States was subdivided into 10 geotectonic regions to facilitate statistical interpretation of the occurrence of uranium and radium in fresh water in approximately homogeneous geologic provinces. For each geotectonic region, the range and median were determined for the concentrations of radium and uranium; for regions from which sufficient data were available, log-normal frequency distribution curves were calculated and superimposed on histograms of radium and uranium concentrations in the samples. An "anomaly threshold" is suggested for both radioelements for each region analyzed statistically. The western stable region had the greatest median and highest "anomaly threshold" for uranium. This region also had the highest "anomaly threshold" for radium, but the largest median for radium was found for samples collected in the Ozark-Ouachita system. The median concentration for uranium was lowest for the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plain and the Pacific orogenic belt. This latter region also had the lowest median-radium content.

Professional Paper↗

Cadmium risks to freshwater life: derivation and validation of low-effect criteria values using laboratory and field studies

In 2001, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released updated aquatic life criteria for cadmium. Since then, additional data on the effects of cadmium to aquatic life have become available from studies supported by the EPA, Idaho Department of Environmental Quality (IDEQ), and the U.S. Geological Survey, among other sources. Updated data on the effects of cadmium to aquatic life were compiled and reviewed and low-effect concentrations were estimated. Low-effect values were calculated using EPA's guidelines for deriving numerical national water-quality criteria for the protection of aquatic organisms and their uses. Data on the short-term (acute) effects of cadmium on North American freshwater species that were suitable for criteria derivation were located for 69 species representing 57 genera and 33 families. For longer-term (chronic) effects of cadmium on North American freshwater species, suitable data were located for 28 species representing 21 genera and 17 families. Both the acute and chronic toxicity of cadmium were dependent on the hardness of the test water. Hardness-toxicity regressions were developed for both acute and chronic datasets so that effects data from different tests could be adjusted to a common water hardness. Hardness-adjusted effects values were pooled to obtain species and genus mean acute and chronic values, which then were ranked by their sensitivity to cadmium. The four most sensitive genera to acute exposures were, in order of increasing cadmium resistance, Oncorhynchus (Pacific trout and salmon), Salvelinus ('char' trout), Salmo (Atlantic trout and salmon), and Cottus (sculpin). The four most sensitive genera to chronic exposures were Hyalella (amphipod), Cottus, Gammarus (amphipod), and Salvelinus. Using the updated datasets, hardness dependent criteria equations were calculated for acute and chronic exposures to cadmium. At a hardness of 50 mg/L as calcium carbonate, the criterion maximum concentration (CMC, or 'acute' criterion) was calculated as 0.75 mug/L cadmium using the hardness-dependent equation CMC = e(0.8403 ? ln(hardness)-3.572) where the 'ln hardness' is the natural logarithm of the water hardness. Likewise, the criterion continuous concentration (CCC, or 'chronic' criterion) was calculated as 0.37 mug/L cadmium using the hardness-dependent equation CCC = (e(0.6247 ? ln(hardness)-3.384)) ? (1.101672 - ((ln hardness) ? 0.041838))). Using data that were independent of those used to derive the criteria, the criteria concentrations were evaluated to estimate whether adverse effects were expected to the biological integrity of natural waters or to selected species listed as threatened or endangered. One species was identified that would not be fully protected by the derived CCC, the amphipod Hyalella azteca. Exposure to CCC conditions likely would lead to population decreases in Hyalella azteca, the food web consequences of which probably would be slight if macroinvertebrate communities were otherwise diverse. Some data also suggested adverse behavioral changes are possible in fish following long-term exposures to low levels of cadmium, particularly in char (genus Salvelinus). Although ambiguous, these data indicate a need to periodically review the literature on behavioral changes in fish following metals exposure as more information becomes available. Most data reviewed indicated that criteria conditions were unlikely to contribute to overt adverse effects to either biological integrity or listed species. If elevated cadmium concentrations that approach the chronic criterion values occur in ambient waters, careful biological monitoring of invertebrate and fish assemblages would be prudent to validate the prediction that the assemblages would not be adversely affected by cadmium at criterion concentrations.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

A tour de force by Hawaii’s invasive mammals: Establishment, takeover, and ecosystem restoration through eradication

Invasive mammals have irreversibly altered ecosystems of Hawai‘i and other tropical Pacific islands in numerous cases through novel herbivory, predation, and diseases, thereby causing the disproportionate extinction of flora and fauna that occur nowhere else on Earth. The control and eradication of invasive mammals is the single most expensive management activity necessary for restoring ecological integrity to many natural areas of Hawai‘i and other Pacific Islands, and have already advanced the restoration of native biota by removing herbivorous ungulates from >750 km 2 . Rodenticides which have been tested and registered for hand and aerial broadcast in Hawai‘i have been used to eradicate rats from remote islands to protect nesting seabirds and are now being applied to larger islands to protect forest birds. The exclusion of other invasive mammals is now being undertaken with more sophisticated control techniques and fences. New fence designs are capable of excluding all mammals from areas to protect endangered native birds. Although the eradication of mammals from large areas has resulted in the restoration of some ecosystem processes such as natural forest regeneration, changes in other processes such as fire regimes, nutrient cycling, and invasive plant proliferation remain more difficult to reverse at larger landscape scales.

Hawaii↗

Response of ecosystem metabolism to low densities of spawning Chinook salmon

Marine derived nutrients delivered by large runs of returning salmon are thought to subsidize the in situ food resources that support juvenile salmon. In the Pacific Northwest, USA, salmon have declined to <10% of their historical abundance, with subsequent declines of marine derived nutrients once provided by large salmon runs. We explored whether low densities (<0.001 spawners/m 2 ) of naturally spawning Chinook Salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) can affect ecosystem metabolism. We measured gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) continuously before, during, and after salmon spawning. We compared downstream reaches with low densities of spawning salmon to upstream reaches with fewer or no spawners in 3 mid-sized (4 th -order) rivers in northern Washington. In addition, we measured chemical, physical, and biological factors that may be important in controlling rates of GPP and ER. We observed that low densities of spawning salmon can increase GPP by 46% during spawning, but values quickly return to those observed before spawning. No difference in ER was observed between up- and downstream reaches. Based on our results, salmon density, temperature, and the proximity to salmon redds were the most important factors controlling rates of GPP, whereas temperature was most important for ER. These results suggest that even at low spawning densities, salmon can stimulate basal resources that may propagate up the food web. Understanding how recipient ecosystems respond to low levels of marine derived nutrients may inform nutrient augmentation studies aimed at enhancing fish populations.

Freshwater Science↗

Regional and other general factors bearing on evaluation of earthquake and other geologic hazards to coastal communities of southeastern Alaska

The great Alaska earthquake of March 27, 1964, brought into sharp focus the need for engineering geologic studies in seismically active regions. As a result, nine communities in southeastern Alaska were selected for reconnaissance investigations as an integral part of an overall program to evaluate earthquake and other geologic hazards in most of the larger Alaska coastal communities. This report gives background information on the regional and other general factors that bear on these evaluations. Southeastern Alaska, about 525 miles long and averaging about 125 miles in width, consists of a narrow mainland strip and numerous islands. For the most part, it is a region of rugged relief with numerous glaciers capping many of the higher mountainous areas and with long linear fiords forming the inland waterways. A maritime climate prevails with mild winters and cool summers. The southeastern part of the region receives the highest precipitation in the continental United States. Ketchikan, with a population of 6,994 in 1970, is the largest city. Geology and structure of the area are complex. Igneous, metamorphic, and sedimentary rocks crop out and range in age from Paleozoic to Tertiary. Surficial deposits of Pleistocene and Holocene age mantle many areas. All of southeastern Alaska, except probably the highest peaks, was covered by glacier ice advances of late Pleistocene age. Major deglaciation was well advanced by 10,000 years ago--a time which approximately marks the end of the Pleistocene and the beginning of the Holocene. There followed a period of warm climate called the Hypsithermal, which in southeastern Alaska began 7,000-8,000 years ago and ended about 4,800-3,500 years ago. Glaciers in most places receded back of their present positions. The Hypsithermal was followed by an interval (termed Neoglaciation) of cooler climate and resurgence of glacier ice which continues to the present, although most glaciers are now rapidly receding. During the past 10,000 years worldwide sea level has risen about 100 feet, but during the past 4,000 years it has risen only about 10 feet or about 0.03 inch per year. With sea level used as a datum, the amount of sea-level rise must be added to the apparent uplift of land for the time under consideration to determine the actual amount of land uplift. The widespread presence of emergent marine deposits, several hundred feet above sea level, demonstrates that the land in southeastern Alaska has been uplifted since the last major deglaciation. The greatest known has been uplifted since the last major deglaciation. The greatest known uplift is in the vicinity of Juneau where glaciomarine deposits are present 750 feet above present sea level. Part of southeastern Alaska is presently undergoing one of the most rapid rates of uplift of any place in the world. The fastest emergence is occurring in the Glacier Bay area where the land is being uplifted relative to sea level approximately 3.9 cm per year. Most or all of the uplift appears to be due to rebound as a result of deglaciation. Southeastern Alaska lies within the circum-Pacific earthquake belt, one of the world's greatest zones of seismic activity. During historic time, there have been five earthquakes in the region with magnitudes of 8 or greater, three with magnitudes of 7 to 8, eight with magnitudes of 6 to 7, more than 15 with magnitudes of 5 to 6, and about 140 recorded earthquakes with magnitudes smaller than 5 or of unassigned magnitudes. All of the earthquakes with magnitudes 8 or greater, and a large proportion of the others, appear to be related to the active Fairweather- Queen Charlotte Islands fault system or its western extension, the Chugach-St. Elias fault. Earthquake epicenters on the Denali fault system, the other major fault system in southeastern Alaska, are few in comparison. However, because high microearthquake activity has been recorded recently on this system and earthquakes of moderate size have occurred on some of its segments, the Denali fault system probably should not be dismissed as a relict fault system of no current tectonic importance. There are numerous other known faults, as well as lineaments that may be faults of varying degrees of tectonic activity in southeastern Alaska, adjacent Canada, and eastern Alaska. One of these elements is the Totschunda fault system, which connects with the Denali fault system in eastern Alaska; it has been very active during Holocene time but few historical earthquake epicenters appear to be related to it. Both historical seismicity and geologic conditions, such as frequency and recency of faulting, must be considered together to permit an assessment of the future earthquake probability of an area. Data are too few for both factors for an accurate evaluation to be made of earthquake probability in southeastern Alaska. However, information compiled in the form of strain-release and seismic-zone maps permit some generalizations. Thus, it is tentatively concluded that most, if not all, of southeastern Alaska should be placed in seismic zone 3, a zone in which earthquakes of magnitude greater than 6 will occur from time to time and where there may be major damage to manmade structures. Inferred effects from future earthquakes in southeastern Alaska include: (1) surface displacement along faults and other tectonic land-level changes, (2) ground shaking, (3) compaction, (4) liquefaction in cohesionless materials, (5) reaction of sensitive and quick clays, (6) water-sediment ejection and associated subsidence and ground fracturing, (7) earthquake-induced sub aerial slides and slumps, (8) earthquake induced subaqueous slides, (9) effects on glaciers and related features, (10) effects on ground water and stream flow, and (11) tsunamis, seiches, and other abnormal water waves. Because of the reconnaissance nature of our studies in the coastal communities and the sparsity of laboratory data on physical properties of geologic units in each area studied, the inferred effects must be largely empirical and generalized. Therefore, the inferences are based in large part upon the effects of past major earthquakes in Alaska and elsewhere, particularly upon the well-documented effects of the Alaska earthquake of March 27, 1964. Buildings, highways, bridges, tunnels, harbor facilities, pipelines, canals, and other manmade structures may be severely damaged or destroyed by fault displacement or related tectonic land-level changes in southeastern Alaska. Direct damage from fault rupture would be restricted virtually to structures built directly athwart the fault. In California and Nevada, fault rupture almost always accompanies shocks of magnitude 6.5 or greater. The Alaska earthquake of March 27, 1964, and the Chilean earthquake of May 22, 1960, dramatically illustrated the severe adverse effects that can result from uplift or subsidence over a wide area. The variable most responsible for the degree of shaking at any epicentral distance is the type of ground. Generally, shaking is considerably greater in poorly consolidated deposits than in hard bedrock, particularly if the deposits are water saturated. Severe shaking of alluvial deposits and manmade fill, with resultant heavy damage, is well documented from the records of many past earthquakes. Damage commonly has been heavy as a result of ground settlement caused by compaction of loose sediments by shaking during an earthquake. This has been especially true where compaction was accompanied by tectonic downdrop of land, such as occurred during the Chilean earthquake of 1960 and the Alaska earthquake of 1964. Loosely emplaced manmade fill, deltaic deposits, beach deposits, and alluvial deposits may be susceptible to compaction in southeastern Alaska during a severe earthquake. Liquefaction of sand and silt is a fairly common effect of large earthquakes. It was well illustrated at Niigata, Japan, during the earthquake of June 16, 1964, and resulted in extensive damage. When part of a sloping soil mass liquefies, the entire mass can undergo catastrophic failure and can flow as a high-density liquid. In southeastern Alaska, deltaic deposits probably would be most susceptible to liquefaction. Sensitive and quick clays, which lose a considerable part of their strength when shaken, commonly fail during an earthquake and become rapid earthflows. Extensive studies were made of the sensitivity of the Bootlegger Cove Clay at Anchorage because of the marked loss of shear strength and dramatic failures of the deposits during the Alaska earthquake of 1964. If similar sensitive clays are present in some places in southeastern Alaska, they most likely are in some of the emergent fine-grained marine deposits; supporting data to confirm their presence, however, are largely lacking. Records of some 50 major earthquakes show that in at least half of the instances water and sediment have been ejected from surficial deposits Water-sediment ejection and associated subsidence and ground fracturing commonly cause extensive damage to the works of man. Ejecta may fill basements and other low-lying parts of buildings. Agricultural land can be covered with a blanket of infertile soils, and small ponds can be filled or made shallow. In southeastern Alaska these phenomena are most likely to occur on valley floors, deltas, tidal flats, alluvial fans, swamps, and lakeshores. Earthquake-induced sliding on land generally is confined to steep slopes but may take place in fine-grained deposits on moderately to nearly flat surfaces if the deposits are subject to liquefaction. A large rockslide triggered by the Lituya Bay, Alaska, earthquake of July 10, 1958, generated a wave that surged up the opposite wall of the inlet to a record height of 1,740 feet. During the Hebgen Lake, Montana, earthquake of August 17, 1959, a spectacular rockslide plunged into the Madison River canyon, buried 28 people, dammed the river, and created a large lake. Earthquake-records are replete with accounts of sliding of surficial deposits during moderate to large earthquakes. Most or all of the general factors that favor subaerial landsliding are present in southeastern Alaska. Earthquake-induced subaqueous slides can produce adverse effects both nearshore and some distance offshore. Nearshore sliding may progress shoreward and destroy harbor facilities and other structures, commonly with substantial loss of life. Disastrous large submarine slides occurred along the fronts of deltas in Seward and Valdez during the Alaska earthquake of 1964. In similar fashion, the largest submarine slides in southeastern Alaska likely will be triggered along the larger delta fronts. Sliding farther offshore can constitute a threat to navigation because of changes in water depths. Also underwater sliding can break communication cables. Glaciers were not greatly affected by the Alaska earthquake of 1964 despite the fact that about 20 percent of the area that underwent strong shaking is covered by ice. In contrast, the cataclysmic avalanche of ice and rock that fell from a high glacier-covered peak in Peru during the earthquake of May 31, 1970, produced devastating effects downvalley on man and his works in the form of mudflows. Most towns in southeastern Alaska are sufficiently distant from glaciers so as not be to directly affected. Both the Alaska earthquake of 1964 and the Hebgen Lake, Montana, earthquake of 1959 significantly affected ground- and surface-water regimens. Water levels in some wells declined whereas in others flow increased. Some springs discharged at a rate three times as much as normal; flow of others decreased or stopped. Discharge of many streams increased markedly. Most or all of the effects described above could occur in parts of southeastern Alaska during future large earthquakes. Tsunamis, seiches, and other abnormal water waves associated with large earthquakes commonly cause vast property damage and heavy loss of life. Tsunami effects can be devastating to coastal areas as far as many thousands of miles from their generation source. Seiche effects generally are confined to inland bodies of water or to relatively enclosed coastal bodies of water. Abnormal waves generated by submarine sliding or by subaerial sliding into water generally produce only local effects but may be highly devastating. Tsunami waves resulting from the Chilean earthquake of 1960 inflicted extensive damage and loss of life on coastal communities throughout a large part of southern Chile, and significant runups and damage were recorded in many places throughout the Pacific Ocean area. The tsunami waves generated by the Alaska earthquake of 1964 struck with devastating force along a broad stretch of the Alaska coast and produced heavy property damage and loss of life as far away as Crescent City, Calif. Seiche waves generated by that earthquake reached runup heights of 20-30 feet on some lakes in Alaska, and water-level fluctuations were recorded on streams, reservoirs, lakes, and swimming pools in States bordering the Gulf of Mexico. Waves generated by submarine sliding struck violently at a number of places during or immediately after the quake and were the major cause of loss of life and damage to property. Slide-generated waves probably would have a higher destructive potential in southeastern Alaska than either tsunami waves or seiche waves because of their possibly higher local runups and because they can hit the shores almost without warning during or immediately after an earthquake. Nonearthquake-related geologic hazards, although generally far less dramatic than those related to earthquakes, tend to occur so much more frequently or persistently that their aggregate effects can be significant. Three kinds of geologic hazards of this type are discussed: (1) nonearthquake-induced landsliding and subaqueous sliding, (2) flooding, and (3) land uplift. The potential for nonearthquake-triggered landsliding in southeastern Alaska ranges widely from place to place. Past sliding generally furnishes the clue in the prediction of where and in what materials future sliding will occur. Fast-moving rockslides, debris slides, and mudflows can be expected to occur from time to time on steep slopes and be highly destructive to highways, power plants, pipelines, buildings, and other facilities located on a slope or at its base. Present slow downslope movement of talus can be expected to continue at the same general rate unless conditions are changed by man or there are climatic changes. Snow and debris avalanches can be especially hazardous during winter months. Long-inactive landslides may be triggered into renewed activity or new slides may be created by man-induced modifications. Accelerated slope erosion and debris flows may follow large-scale clearing and cutting of timber. Subaqueous sliding can be expected to occur periodically along fronts of deltas and on other oversteepened underwater slopes. Floods have been common in parts of southeastern Alaska because of heavy precipitation and rapid runoff from steep slopes with resulting heavy damage to roads and other facilities. Continued damage can be expected in the future unless more remedial measures are taken. Current uplift of land in southeastern Alaska, although probably not affecting man significantly in a short period of time, may have some adverse long-term effects. These long-term effects should be borne in mind when facilities such as docks and boat harbors are constructed on or near the shore, where there is a critical relation between height of land and water.

Alaska↗

Consequences of changes in vegetation and snow cover for climate feedbacks in Alaska and northwest Canada

Changes in vegetation and snow cover may lead to feedbacks to climate through changes in surface albedo and energy fluxes between the land and atmosphere. In addition to these biogeophysical feedbacks, biogeochemical feedbacks associated with changes in carbon (C) storage in the vegetation and soils may also influence climate. Here, using a transient biogeographic model (ALFRESCO) and an ecosystem model (DOS-TEM), we quantified the biogeophysical feedbacks due to changes in vegetation and snow cover across continuous permafrost to non-permafrost ecosystems in Alaska and northwest Canada. We also computed the changes in carbon storage in this region to provide a general assessment of the direction of the biogeochemical feedback. We considered four ecoregions, or Landscape Conservations Cooperatives (LCCs; including the Arctic, North Pacific, Western Alaska, and Northwest Boreal). We examined the 90 year period from 2010 to 2099 using one future emission scenario (A1B), under outputs from two general circulation models (MPI-ECHAM5 and CCCMA-CGCM3.1). We found that changes in snow cover duration, including both the timing of snowmelt in the spring and snow return in the fall, provided the dominant positive biogeophysical feedback to climate across all LCCs, and was greater for the ECHAM (+3.1 W m −2 decade −1 regionally) compared to the CCCMA (+1.3 W m −2 decade −1 regionally) scenario due to an increase in loss of snow cover in the ECHAM scenario. The greatest overall negative feedback to climate from changes in vegetation cover was due to fire in spruce forests in the Northwest Boreal LCC and fire in shrub tundra in the Western LCC (−0.2 to −0.3 W m −2 decade −1 ). With the larger positive feedbacks associated with reductions in snow cover compared to the smaller negative feedbacks associated with shifts in vegetation, the feedback to climate warming was positive (total feedback of +2.7 W m −2 decade regionally in the ECHAM scenario compared to +0.76 W m −2 decade regionally in the CCCMA scenario). Overall, increases in C storage in the vegetation and soils across the study region would act as a negative feedback to climate. By exploring these feedbacks to climate, we can reach a more integrated understanding of the manner in which climate change may impact interactions between high-latitude ecosystems and the global climate system.

Environmental Research Letters↗

Simulation of water available for runoff in clearcut forest openings during rain-on-snow events in the western Cascade Range of Oregon and Washington

Rain-on-snow events are common on mountain slopes within the transient-snow zone of the Pacific Northwest. These events make more water available for runoff than does precipitation alone by melting the snowpack and by adding a small amount of condensate to the snowpack. In forest openings (such as those resulting from clearcut logging), the amount of snow that accumulates and the turbulent- energy input to the snowpack are greater than below forest stands. Both factors are believed to contribute to a greater amount of water available for runoff during rain-on-snow events in forest openings than forest stands. Because increased water available for runoff may lead to increased downstream flooding and erosion, knowledge of the amount of snowmelt that can occur during rain on snow and the processes that control snowmelt in forest openings is useful when making land-use decisions. Snow accumulation and melt were simulated for clearcut conditions only, using an enery- balance approach that accounts for the most important energy and mass exchanges between a snowpack and its environment. Meteorological measurements provided the input for the simulations. Snow accumulation and melt were not simulated in forest stands because interception of precipitation processes are too complex to simulate with a numerical model without making simplifying assumptions. Such a model, however, would need to be extensively tested against representative observations, which were not available for this study. Snowmelt simulated during three rain-on-snow events (measured in a previous study in a clearcut in the transient-snow zone of the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest in Oregon) demonstrated that melt generation is most sensitive to turbulent- energy exchanges between the air and the snowpack surface. As a result, the most important climate variable that controls snowmelt is wind speed. Air temperature, however, is a significant variable also. The wind speeds were light, with a maximum of 3.3 meters per second during one event and average wind speeds for all three events ranging from 1.7 to 2.1 meters per second. For observed and estimated conditions, the average simulated snowmelt ranged from 0.2 to 0.8 millimeter liquid water per hour, and turbulent-energy exchange provided 51 percent of the energy that led to snowmelt during the largest of the three rain-on-snow events. When wind speeds were multiplied by a factor of 4, the simulated snowmelt ranged from 1.0 to 2.5 millimeters per hour. Similarly, when wind speeds were multiplied by a factor of 6, the simulated snowmelt ranged from 1.6 to 3.7 millimeters per hour. Turbulent-energy exchange provided a dominant 88 and 92 percent of the energy input to the snowpack during the largest rain-on-snow event when average wind speeds were multiplied by factors of 4 and 6, respectively. During the same event, the contribution to melt by the sum of net solar and net thermal radiation (net all-wave radiation) was roughly equal to the contribution of sensible energy carried by the precipitation itself (advective heat). Estimates of snowmelt resulting from rain on snow for climate conditions other than those observed and estimated in the simulated plot-scale data were expanded by simulating snowmelt for 24-hour presumed rain-on-snow events extracted from the reconstructed, long-term historical climate records for Cedar Lake and Snoqualmie Pass National Weather Service stations in Washington State. The selected events exceeded 75 millimeters of precipitation in 24 hours. When clearcut conditions were assumed to be identical to those at the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest site and a ripe snowpack that never completely melted was assumed to be available, simulated 24-hour snowmelt ranged from 4.2 to 47.0 millimeters (0.2 to 2.0 millimeters per hour) for low wind speeds (1.5 meters per second) and from 10.3 to 178.8 millimeters (0.4 to 7.5 millimeters per hour) for high wind speeds (8.2 meters per second). The ranges in

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Upwelling, climate change, and the shifting geography of coral reef development

The eastern tropical Pacific is oceanographically unfavorable for coral-reef development. Nevertheless, reefs have persisted there for the last 7000 years. Rates of vertical accretion during the Holocene have been similar in the strong-upwelling Gulf of Panamá (GoP) and the adjacent, weak-upwelling Gulf of Chiriquí (GoC); however, seasonal upwelling in the GoP exacerbated a climate-driven hiatus in reef development in the late Holocene. The situation is now reversed and seasonal upwelling in the GoP currently buffers thermal stress, creating a refuge for coral growth. We developed carbonate budget models to project the capacity of reefs in both gulfs to keep up with future sea-level rise. On average, the GoP had significantly higher net carbonate production rates than the GoC. With an estimated contemporary reef-accretion potential (RAP) of 5.5 mm year −1 , reefs in the GoP are projected to be able to keep up with sea-level rise if CO 2 emissions are reduced, but not under current emissions trajectories. With an estimated RAP of just 0.3 mm year −1 , reefs in the GoC are likely already unable to keep up with contemporary sea-level rise in Panamá (1.4 mm year −1 ). Whereas the GoP has the potential to support functional reefs in the near-term, our study indicates that their long-term persistence will depend on reduction of greenhouse gases.

Scientific Reports↗

Incorporating movement patterns to improve survival estimates for juvenile bull trout

Populations of many fish species are sensitive to changes in vital rates during early life stages, but our understanding of the factors affecting growth, survival, and movement patterns is often extremely limited for juvenile fish. These critical information gaps are particularly evident for bull trout Salvelinus confluentus , a threatened Pacific Northwest char. We combined several active and passive mark–recapture and resight techniques to assess migration rates and estimate survival for juvenile bull trout (70–170 mm total length). We evaluated the relative performance of multiple survival estimation techniques by comparing results from a common Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) model, the less widely used Barker model, and a simple return rate (an index of survival). Juvenile bull trout of all sizes emigrated from their natal habitat throughout the year, and thereafter migrated up to 50 km downstream. With the CJS model, high emigration rates led to an extreme underestimate of apparent survival, a combined estimate of site fidelity and survival. In contrast, the Barker model, which allows survival and emigration to be modeled as separate parameters, produced estimates of survival that were much less biased than the return rate. Estimates of age-class-specific annual survival from the Barker model based on all available data were 0.218±0.028 (estimate±SE) for age-1 bull trout and 0.231±0.065 for age-2 bull trout. This research demonstrates the importance of incorporating movement patterns into survival analyses, and we provide one of the first field-based estimates of juvenile bull trout annual survival in relatively pristine rearing conditions. These estimates can provide a baseline for comparison with future studies in more impacted systems and will help managers develop reliable stage-structured population models to evaluate future recovery strategies.

Oregon↗

The occurrence of large floods in the United States in the modern hydroclimate regime: Seasonality, trends, and large-scale climate associations

Many studies investigate river floods by analyzing annual maximum series that record the largest flow of each year, including many within-bank events inconsequential for human communities. Fewer focus on larger floods, especially at the continental scale. Using 473 streamgages across the conterminous United States with near-natural flow from 1966 to 2015, we characterized the seasonality, occurrence, and climatic associations of the 10 largest and 2 largest floods at each site. These are often overbank events that have ecosystem functions and pose risks to humans. We grouped sites into 14 clusters corresponding to climatic and physiographic regions and characterized their flood seasonality at a monthly resolution using a probabilistic method. We then evaluated annual occurrence regionally and nationally, and seasonal occurrence regionally, by complementing a traditional approach to trend analyses with a novel method based on expected occurrence. Relationships between flood occurrence and climate indices were also investigated. Large floods have strong seasonality in some regions, but in areas with numerous flood-generating mechanisms, seasonality is more complex. There is little evidence nationally that large riverine floods are more or less frequent than expected in recent years and only two regions show significant trends in annual counts; few show seasonal trends. We found some regional relationships between flood counts and climate indices, annually and seasonally; nationally the Pacific North American pattern is related to annual counts of the 2 largest floods. Large-flood occurrence was generally stable across the United States in the last five decades; this may or may not continue with projected warming.

Water Resources Research↗

Correlating seabird movements with ocean winds: linking satellite telemetry with ocean scatterometry.

Satellite telemetry studies of the movements of seabirds are now common and have revealed impressive flight capabilities and extensive distributions among individuals and species at sea. Linking seabird movements with environmental conditions over vast expanses of the world's open ocean, however, remains difficult. Seabirds of the order Procellariiformes (e.g., petrels, albatrosses, and shearwaters) depend largely on wind and wave energy for efficient flight. We present a new method for quantifying the movements of far-ranging seabirds in relation to ocean winds measured by the SeaWinds scatterometer onboard the QuikSCAT satellite. We apply vector correlation (as defined by Crosby et al. in J Atm Ocean Tech 10:355-367, 1993) to evaluate how the trajectories (ground speed and direction) for five procellariiform seabirds outfitted with satellite transmitters are related to ocean winds. Individual seabirds (Sooty Shearwater, Pink-footed Shearwater, Hawaiian Petrel, Grey-faced Petrel, and Black-footed Albatross) all traveled predominantly with oblique, isotropic crossing to quartering tail-winds (i.e., 105-165 degrees in relation to birds' trajectory). For all five seabirds, entire track line trajectories were significantly correlated with co-located winds. Greatest correlations along 8-day path segments were related to wind patterns during birds' directed, long-range migration (Sooty Shearwater) as well as movements associated with mega-scale meteorological phenomena, including Pacific Basin anticyclones (Hawaiian Petrel, Grey-faced Petrel) and eastward-propagating north Pacific cyclones (Black-footed Albatross). Wind strength and direction are important factors related to the overall movements that delineate the distribution of petrels at sea. We suggest that vector correlation can be used to quantify movements for any marine vertebrate when tracking and environmental data (winds or currents) are of sufficient quality and sample size. Vector correlation coefficients can then be used to assess population--or species-specific variability and used to test specific hypotheses related to how animal movements are associated with fluid environments.

Marine Biology↗

The Mono Arch, eastern Sierra region, California: Dynamic topography associated with upper-mantle upwelling?

A broad, topographic flexure localized east of and over the central and southern Sierra Nevada, herein named the Mono Arch, apparently represents crustal response to lithospheric and/or upper-mantle processes, probably dominated by mantle upwelling within the continental interior associated Pacific-North American plate-boundary deformation. This zone of flexure is identified through comparison between the topographic characteristics of the active Cascade volcanic arc and backarc regions with the analogous former arc and backarc in the Sierra Nevada and eastern Sierra Nevada. Serial topographic profiles measured normal to the modern Cascade backarc reveal an accordance of topographic lows defined by valley floors with an average minimum elevation of ???1400-1500m for over 175km to the southeast. Although the accordance drops in elevation slightly to the south, the modern Cascade backarc region is remarkably level, and is characterized by relief up to ???750m above this baseline elevation. By contrast, serial topographic profiles over the former arc and backarc transitions of the eastern Sierra region exhibit a regional anticlinal warping defined by accordant valley floors and by a late Miocene-early Pliocene erosion surface and associated deposits. The amplitude of this flexure above regionally flat baseline elevations to the east varies spatially along the length of the former Sierran arc, with a maximum of ???1000m centred over the Bridgeport Basin. The total zone of flexure is approximately 350km long N-S and 100km wide E-W, and extends from Indian Wells Valley in the south to the Sonora Pass region in the north. Previous geophysical, petrologic, and geodetic studies suggest that the Mono Arch overlies a zone of active mantle upwelling. This region also represents a zone crustal weakness formerly exploited by the middle-to-late Miocene arc and is presently the locus of seismic and volcanic activities. This seismic zone, which lies east of the Sierra Nevada block, includes the northern and central Walker Lane in Nevada and the eastern California shear zone to the south in California. Vertical patterns of surface deformation over this region are characterized by west tilting of the Sierra Nevada block and by block faulting of a late Miocene erosion surface east of the Sierra Nevada.

International Geology Review↗