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Reducing risk where tectonic plates collide—U.S. Geological Survey subduction zone science plan

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) serves the Nation by providing reliable scientific information and tools to build resilience in communities exposed to subduction zone earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, and volcanic eruptions. Improving the application of USGS science to successfully reduce risk from these events relies on whole community efforts, with continuing partnerships among scientists and stakeholders, including researchers from universities, other government labs and private industry, land-use planners, engineers, policy-makers, emergency managers and responders, business owners, insurance providers, the media, and the general public. Motivated by recent technological advances and increased awareness of our growing vulnerability to subduction-zone hazards, the USGS is uniquely positioned to take a major step forward in the science it conducts and products it provides, building on its tradition of using long-term monitoring and research to develop effective products for hazard mitigation. This science plan provides a blueprint both for prioritizing USGS science activities and for delineating USGS interests and potential participation in subduction zone science supported by its partners. The activities in this plan address many USGS stakeholder needs: High-fidelity tools and user-tailored information that facilitate increasingly more targeted, neighborhood-scale decisions to mitigate risks more cost-effectively and ensure post-event operability. Such tools may include maps, tables, and simulated earthquake ground-motion records conveying shaking intensity and frequency. These facilitate the prioritization of retrofitting of vulnerable infrastructure; Information to guide local land-use and response planning to minimize development in likely hazardous zones (for example, databases, maps, and scenario documents to guide evacuation route planning in communities near volcanoes, along coastlines vulnerable to tsunamis, and built on landslide-prone terrain); New tools to assess the potential for cascading hazards, such as landslides, tsunamis, coastal changes, and flooding caused by earthquakes or volcanic eruptions; Geospatial models of permanent, widespread land- and sea-level changes that may occur in the immediate aftermath of great ( M ≥8.0) subduction zone earthquakes; Strong partnerships between scientists and public safety providers for effective decision making during periods of elevated hazard and risk; Accurate forecasts of far-reaching hazards (for example, ash clouds, tsunamis) to avert catastrophes and unnecessary disruptions in air and sea transportation; Aftershock forecasts to guide decisions about when and where to re-enter, repair, or rebuild buildings and infrastructure, for all types of subduction zone earthquakes.

Circular↗

U.S. Geological Survey Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center: Proceedings of the fiscal year 2023 annual reporting meeting to the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program

This proceedings is prepared for the USBR and Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP) to account for work conducted and products delivered in FY 2023 by SBSC's Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC) and to inform the Technical Work Group of science conducted by GCMRC and its cooperators in support of the GCDAMP. It includes a summary of accomplishments, modifications to work plans, and results related to projects included in GCMRC’s FY 2021-23 Triennial Work Plan. This work was done to support the 11 resource goals identified in the Glen Canyon Dam Long-Term Experimental and Management Plan (LTEMP) Environmental Impact Statement and Record of Decision.

Arizona, Nevada, Utah↗

U.S. Geological Survey Greater Everglades Science Program: 2002 Biennial Report

Introduction The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts scientific investigations in south Florida to improve society’s understanding of the environment and assist in the sustainable use, protection, and restoration of the Everglades and other ecosystems within the region. The investigations summarized in this document have been carried out under the Greater Everglades Science Program (previously known as the South Florida Ecosystem Program), which is part of the USGS Place-Based Studies initiative. The USGS Placed-Based Studies initiative is a nationwide program that concentrates on areas with severe environmental problems. Through interdisciplinary investigations the Program provides sound scientific information on which to base informed resource management decisions. Individuals from all the USGS programs (hydrology, geology, biology, mapping) work together with other scientists to cover the diverse scientific disciplines involved in this complex and challenging task. The Greater Everglades Science Program began in 1995 as one of the initial Place-Based Studies programs and serves as a model for similar future collaborative studies. Placed-Based Studies are also being conducted in the San Francisco Bay area, Chesapeake Bay, the Platte River, Greater Yellowstone, Salton Sea, and the Mojave Desert. The South Florida Ecosystem Program is part of a coordinated federal effort, under the South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Task Force. The Task Force was started in 1993, through interagency agreement, to coordinate the efforts of the agencies within six federal departments. In 1996, statutory authority formalized the Task Force and expanded it to include tribal, state, and local governments. The Task Force conducts its activities through the South Florida Ecosystem Working Group and teams, such as the Science Coordination Team. A Science Plan and Integrated Financial Plans are established to focus efforts and prevent duplicative efforts by the agencies.

Open-File Report↗

Mangroves and people: Impacts and interactions

Mangroves have long been associated with human populations, as coastal communities rely on the various ecosystem services that mangroves provide. However, human degradation and destruction of mangrove forests is common, despite and because of our reliance on them as valuable ecosystems. Mangrove research and management must elucidate and reconcile these conflicts to maintain mangrove forests and the services that humans depend on. To better understand the complex dynamics, interactions and relationships that exist between mangroves and coastal communities, the 5th Mangrove Macrobenthos and Management (MMM5) conference was held in Singapore in July 2019, with the theme “ Mangroves and People: Impacts and Interactions”. This theme was chosen because Southeast Asia is the epicentre of ongoing mangrove loss, and a large number of coastal communities in the region rely on the ecosystem services that mangroves provide. The 32 papers published in this Special Issue represent the breadth of mangrove research presented at MMM5, including topics in faunal biology, ecosystem ecology, genetics, physical geography, biogeochemistry, remote sensing and the social sciences. The articles are characterized under the following topics: 1) mangrove ecosystem functioning; 2) range expansion of mangroves; 3) ecosystem services of mangroves; 4) anthropogenic and natural threats to mangroves; and 5) the management and social-ecology of mangroves. This Special Issue highlights the current state of the art of mangrove research and application, and describes a number of emerging new ideas and research opportunities that will continue to advance mangrove ecosystem science into the future.

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science↗

Impact of sampling techniques on measured stormwater quality data for small streams

Science-based sampling methodologies are needed to enhance water quality characterization for setting appropriate water quality standards, developing Total Maximum Daily Loads, and managing nonpoint source pollution. Storm event sampling, which is vital for adequate assessment of water quality in small (wadeable) streams, is typically conducted by manual grab or integrated sampling or with an automated sampler. Although it is typically assumed that samples from a single point adequately represent mean cross-sectional concentrations, especially for dissolved constituents, this assumption of well-mixed conditions has received limited evaluation. Similarly, the impact of temporal (within-storm) concentration variability is rarely considered. Therefore, this study evaluated differences in stormwater quality measured in small streams with several common sampling techniques, which in essence evaluated within-channel and within-storm concentration variability. Constituent concentrations from manual grab samples and from integrated samples were compared for 31 events, then concentrations were also compared for seven events with automated sample collection. Comparison of sampling techniques indicated varying degrees of concentration variability within channel cross sections for both dissolved and particulate constituents, which is contrary to common assumptions of substantial variability in particulate concentrations and of minimal variability in dissolved concentrations. Results also indicated the potential for substantial within-storm (temporal) concentration variability for both dissolved and particulate constituents. Thus, failing to account for potential cross-sectional and temporal concentration variability in stormwater monitoring projects can introduce additional uncertainty in measured water quality data. Copyright ?? 2010 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗

Seed treatments containing neonicotinoids and fungicides reduce aquatic insect richness and abundance in midwestern USA–managed floodplain wetlands

Agrochemicals including neonicotinoid insecticides and fungicides are frequently applied as seed treatments on corn, soybeans, and other common row crops. Crops grown from pesticide-treated seed are often directly planted in managed floodplain wetlands and used as a soil disturbance or food resource for wildlife. We quantified invertebrate communities within mid-latitude floodplain wetlands and assessed their response to use of pesticide-treated seeds within the floodplain. We collected and tested aqueous and sediment samples for pesticides in addition to sampling aquatic invertebrates from 22 paired wetlands. Samples were collected twice in 2016 (spring [pre-water level drawdown] and autumn [post-water level flood-up]) followed by a third sampling period (spring 2017). Meanwhile, during the summer of 2016, a portion of study wetlands were planted with either pesticide-treated or untreated corn seed. Neonicotinoid toxic equivalencies (NI-EQs) for sediment ( X̅ = 0.58 μg/kg), water ( X̅ = 0.02 μg/L), and sediment fungicide concentrations ( X̅ = 0.10 μg/kg) were used to assess potential effects on wetland invertebrates. An overall decrease in aquatic insect richness and abundance was associated with greater NI-EQs in wetland water and sediments, as well as with sediment fungicide concentration. Post-treatment, treated wetlands displayed a decrease in insect taxa-richness and abundance before recovering by the spring of 2017. Information on timing and magnitude of aquatic insect declines will be useful when considering the use of seed treatments for wildlife management. More broadly, this study brings attention to how agriculture is used in wetland management and conservation planning.

Missouri↗

Application of a data-limited stock assessment model to understand the historical population of cisco in Lake Erie

Historically, cisco (Coregonus artedi) supported one of the largest commercial fisheries in Lake Erie with over 25 million kilograms landed in a single year during the fisheries’ peak in 1912. Like many other coregonines in the Laurentian Great Lakes, the Lake Erie cisco population eventually collapsed and is now considered extirpated. Management interest in restoring coregonine abundance and diversity across the Great Lakes motivated the development of a multi-agency, science-based framework aimed at restoring or enhancing populations. As part of that framework, we applied a data-limited model (depletion-based stock reduction analysis) to a reconstructed catch series to estimate historical levels of abundance of cisco in Lake Erie. Estimated historical carrying capacity was 171 million kilograms (66.5 kg/ha) and estimated annual exploitation was as high as 70 %. Model projections suggested the population should have rebuilt following a fishery collapse in 1925; however, the fishery remained depressed and cisco disappeared from Lake Erie despite the end of targeted exploitation in 1965. Other factors, such as habitat degradation and invasive species, are believed to have played a part in impeding recovery of cisco. The results of this study could be used in setting potential restoration targets for Lake Erie cisco given current conditions. The likelihood of achieving recovery targets based on historical population size will be dependent on the suitability of current conditions for sustaining the population.

Lake Erie↗

Factors influencing the regeneration of the mangrove Bruguiera gymnorrhiza (L.) Lamk. on a tropical Pacific island

Mangrove swamps occupy approximately two-thirds of the shoreline on Kosrae, Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), and also border the island's most populated areas. Kosraeans depend on mangrove swamps for a supply of wood to support a growing handicraft industry, for a dependable source of fuelwood, and for habitat to support the harvest of fish and mangrove crabs. One of the more prominent mangrove species on Kosrae is Bruguiera gymnorrhiza, yet it is not the most preferred species for carving or cooking. To evaluate B. gymnorrhiza's persistence in the intertidal and to develop a better understanding of factors influencing its regeneration, we investigated predispersal insect colonization of propagules, postdispersal propagule predation by crabs, and the relative effects of natural and artificial shade, salinity, and tidal flooding on early tree seedling survival and growth. Predispersal insect colonization of propagules by boring insects was very high (93%), but the damage did not seem to influence seedling survival. Postdispersal predation of B. gymnorrhiza propagules by crabs was low (17%) and did not change in gap versus understory plots. Predation did vary by intertidal location (lower intertidal > middle intertidal = upper intertidal), with lower predation occurring in an intertidal location with a B. gymnorrhiza-dominated overstory. Shade and tidal inundation reduced seedling growth more than salinity in greenhouse investigations, but sunlight had less positive influence on seedling growth in the field. In general, regeneration and growth occurred successfully under a variety of conditions, indicating that none of the factors investigated serve as strong regulators to B. gymnorrhiza regeneration and early growth on Kosrae. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

Measuring and attributing sedimentary and geomorphic responses to modern climate change: Challenges and opportunities

Today, climate change is affecting virtually all terrestrial and nearshore settings. This commentary discusses the challenges of measuring climate-driven physical landscape responses to modern global warming: short and incomplete data records, land use and seismicity masking climatic effects, biases in data availability and resolution, and signal attenuation in sedimentary systems. We identify opportunities to learn from historical and paleo data, select especially sensitive study sites, and report null results to better characterize the extent and nuances of climate-change effects. We then discuss efforts to improve attribution practices, which will lead to better predictive capabilities. We encourage the earth-science community to prioritize scientific research on climate-driven physical landscape changes so that societies will be better prepared to manage the effects on health and safety, infrastructure, water–food–energy security, economics, and ecosystems that follow from climate-driven physical landscape change.

Earth's Future↗

Reservoir fish habitats: A perspective on coping with climate change

Climate change is the defining environmental problem for our generation. The effects of climate change are increasingly evident and are anticipated to profoundly affect our ability to conserve fish habitats and fish assemblages. Reservoirs are important structures for coping with projected shifts in water supply, but they also provide refuge for riverine fishes and retain distinct fish assemblages that support diverse fisheries. The effects of climate change on reservoirs are unique among aquatic systems because reservoirs have distinctive habitat characteristics due to their terrestrial origin and strong linkage to catchments. This article reviews (1) the projected effects of rising temperature and shifting precipitation on reservoir fish habitats, and (2) adaptation strategies to cope with the anticipated effects. Climate warming impacts to reservoirs may include higher water temperatures and shifts in hydrology that can result in reduced water levels in summer and fall, altered water residence cycles, disconnection from upstream riverine habitats and backwaters, increased stratification, eutrophication, anoxia, and a general shift in biotic assemblages including plants, invertebrates, and fishes. What is needed to adapt to these changes is a perspective that focuses on maintaining ecosystem functionality rather than on retaining a certain species composition. To that end, various strategies organized into planning, monitoring, and managing compartments are identified.

Reviews in Fisheries Science & Aquaculture↗

Hydrological regime and climate interactively shape riparian vegetation composition along the Colorado River, Grand Canyon

Question How closely do riparian plant communities track hydrological and climatic variation in space, and how do interactions among hydrological and climatic filters influence success of flow management strategies? Location Grand Canyon, Arizona, USA. Methods Multi‐year vegetation surveys were conducted across three hydrological zones – active channel, active floodplain and inactive floodplain – within each of 42 sandbars that vary geographically in temperature and precipitation along a 400‐km river segment. Ecological niche models were used to estimate locally optimal conditions of maximum inundation duration, elevation above daily peak flow, mean annual precipitation, and mean maximum and minimum temperature for 16 of the most abundant woody and 58 most abundant herbaceous plant species. These estimates were used to calculate community‐weighted mean (CWM) environmental preferences, which were used to determine how closely vegetation preferences tracked local variation in environmental factors, and to assess interactive responses of species and communities to variation in hydrology and climate. Results Communities closely tracked hydrological variation across zones, but less so within zones. Communities tracked variation in minimum temperature more closely than maximum temperature or precipitation. At the species level, woody plants that were more abundant in wetter hydrological conditions were also more abundant in wetter climatic conditions, and vice versa. This relationship was even stronger at the community level, where there were significant negative relationships between CWM preferences of inundation duration and temperature for both woody and herbaceous vegetation. Conclusions The climate‐hydrology linkages found in this system suggest that increasing temperatures and drought are likely to reduce the inundation tolerance of riparian vegetation within the Grand Canyon. Increasing the duration of high flow events would likely reduce the abundance of encroaching woody vegetation, but could also reduce the resilience of remaining vegetation to heat waves and drought. The reinforcing effects of climatic and hydrological filters are likely to generally result in greater sensitivity of species composition to environmental change than if those environmental filters acted independently. These results have implications for predicting resource responses to environmental change, as well as prescriptions for direct vegetation management to enhance resilience.

Colorado River, Grand Canyon↗

Framework for monitoring shrubland community integrity in California Mediterranean type ecosystems: Information for policy makers and land managers

Shrublands in Mediterranean‐type ecosystems worldwide support important ecosystem services including high levels of biodiversity and are threatened by multiple factors in heavily used landscapes. Use, conservation, and management of these landscapes involve diverse stakeholders, making decision processes complex. To be effective, management and land use decisions should be informed by current information on ecosystem quality and resilience. However, obtaining this information is often a challenge due to the extent of landscapes involved. Here we present a conceptual integrity monitoring framework based on simple easily observable ecosystem components readily understood by nonspecialists. Community integrity is defined by plant functional group based on relative proportion of shrubs and nonnative annual grasses. The ability to use these straightforward metrics results from four factors: relatively good alignment of characteristic bird, mammal, and insect communities with shrub cover, positive feedback between annual grasses and short fire intervals, the inhibitory effect of annual grasses on shrub seedling establishment, and similar functional group response to different disturbances. Two additional metrics, indicator species and shrub species diversity, capture subtle yet persistent signatures of disturbance on integrity not reflected in functional group composition. The framework is designed to: categorize habitats into ecosystem integrity classes, forecast likely integrity class changes caused by threats and environmental conditions, and provide a simple reporting mechanism that can be overlain with data on conservation status and vulnerabilities. The proposed framework includes a pilot phase to validate empirical relationships, thresholds, and sampling efficiency. The accessibility of these metrics to nonspecialists is anticipated to enhance communication among stakeholders and thus facilitate problem solving. Leveraging monitoring and mapping programs driven by other needs (e.g., species conservation and fire management) affords meaningful opportunities to offset program costs.

California↗

An empirically based simulation model to inform flow management for endangered species conservation

Increasing water demand, water development, and ongoing climate change have driven extensive changes to the hydrology, geomorphology and biology of arid-land rivers globally, driving an increasing need to understand how annual hydrologic conditions affect the distribution and abundance of imperiled desert fish populations. We analyzed the relationship between annual hydrologic conditions and the endangered Rio Grande silvery minnow ( Hybognathus amarus ) in the Middle Rio Grande, New Mexico, USA, using hurdle models to predict both presence and density as a function of integrated annual hydrologic metrics. Both presence and density were positively related to spring high flow magnitude and duration and negatively related to summer drying, as indicated by an integrated flow metric. Simulations suggest hydrologic conditions near the wettest observed in the data set would be required to meet recovery goals in a single year in all reaches. We demonstrate how the models developed herein can be used to examine alternative water management strategies, including strategies that may currently be socially and logistically infeasible to implement, to identify strategies minimizing trade-offs between conservation and other management goals.

New Mexico↗

Diets of the sympatric pacific sheath-tailed bat (Emballonura semicaudata rotensis) and Mariana Swiftlet (Aerodramus bartscht) on Aguiguan, Mariana Islands

The Pacific sheath-tailed bat ( Emballonura semicaudata rotensis ) and Mariana swiftlet ( Aerodramus bartschi ) are two rare insectivorous taxa restricted to the southern Mariana Islands in western Micronesia. It is believed that populations of both have dwindled because of impacts to their food resources. However, there is little information on the food habits of A. bartschi and none exists for E. s. rotensis . In an effort to better understand the feeding habits of both, we investigated their diets using guano analysis. Guano was collected from two roosts in caves during a 2-week period in June and July at the onset of the rainy season. Important orders of insects consumed (percentage volume) by bats roosting at one cave included hymenopterans (64%), coleopterans (10%), lepidopterans (8%), isopterans (8%), and psocopterans (5%), whereas those at a second cave included lepidopterans (45%), hymenopterans (41%), coleopterans (10%), and isopterans (5%). Swiftlets, which roosted in only one of the caves, fed mostly on hymenopterans (88%) and hemipterans (6%). Significant differences existed between the two taxa in several insect orders eaten, with E. s. rotensis consuming more lepidopterans and coleopterans and A. bartschi taking more hymenopterans and hemipterans. Within Hymenoptera, bats fed more on ichneumoideans, whereas swiftlets ate more formicid alates and chalicidoideans. This new information on the feeding habits of E. s. rotensis and A. bartschi provides insight on the complexity of their diets during June and July, and serves as baseline information for future studies and management of their habitat.

Pacific Science↗

Pre-restoration woody species crown and vegetation community mapping using high-resolution uncrewed aerial system imagery, Palmyra Atoll

The terrestrial management plan for Palmyra Atoll includes large-scale removal of coconut ( Cocos nucifera ) as part of native forest restoration and contaminant remediation that will leave soils and vegetation communities profoundly altered. To inform those efforts and provide baseline data for restoration monitoring, woody stem crowns and vegetation communities at Palmyra Atoll were mapped using existing datasets and manual photointerpretation of high-resolution aerial imagery collected using uncrewed aerial systems. Coconut palm, grand devil's claws ( Pisonia grandis ), and numerous other species were delineated as either individual crowns, crown portions, or species patches. The extent of land area at high tide was also delineated based on vegetation patterns, topographic indicators, and deposition lines of vegetation litter and flotsam. Finally, in a novel “bottom-up” approach to vegetation community mapping, crown maps were used to delineate U.S. National Vegetation Classification System vegetation communities and other management areas. Of the more than 44,000 mapped crowns, coconut was by far the most abundant species, comprising nearly half of the mapped stems. By establishing a quantitative baseline for current habitat conditions, this project facilitates the integration of contaminant remediation recovery activities with habitat restoration planning, implementation, and monitoring at Palmyra Atoll. Results illustrate the appropriateness of the mapping approach for plant species-level censuses and cover estimation over relatively small areas to aid in inventory and monitoring and to facilitate management planning. The relatively simple mapping methods used in this study are appropriate for resource managers with limited human and computational resources to support automated mapping.

Pacific Science↗

Social scientist's viewpoint on conflict management

Social scientists can bring to the conflict-management process objective, reliable information needed to resolve increasingly complex issues. Engineers need basic training in the principles of the social sciences and in strategies for public involvement. All scientists need to be sure that that the information they provide is unbiased by their own value judgments and that fair standards and open procedures govern its use.

Book↗

USGS: Science at the intersection of land and ocean

The US Geological Survey (USGS) conducts an ongoing national assessment of coastal change hazards in order to help protect lives and support management of coastal infrastructure and resources. The research group rapidly gathers to investigate coastal changes along the Gulf Coast's sandy beaches after each hurricane to examine the magnitude and variability of impacts. This investigation helps to protect the environment and the American people by preparing maps that show the extreme coastal change. It also posts online video and still photography and LIDAR (light detection and ranging) survey data after each storm, to provide a clear picture of the devastated area. The USGS provides data to understand changing coastal vulnerabilities so that informed decisions can be made to protect disaster affected areas and its resources. Earth scientists in the USGS are learning more about coastal dynamics, determining changes, and improving the ability to forecast how coastal environments will respond to the next storm.

Sea Technology↗

Data mining for water resource management part 2 - methods and approaches to solving contemporary problems

This is the second of two papers that describe how data mining can aid natural-resource managers with the difficult problem of controlling the interactions between hydrologic and man-made systems. Data mining is a new science that assists scientists in converting large databases into knowledge, and is uniquely able to leverage the large amounts of real-time, multivariate data now being collected for hydrologic systems. Part 1 gives a high-level overview of data mining, and describes several applications that have addressed major water resource issues in South Carolina. This Part 2 paper describes how various data mining methods are integrated to produce predictive models for controlling surface- and groundwater hydraulics and quality. The methods include: - signal processing to remove noise and decompose complex signals into simpler components; - time series clustering that optimally groups hundreds of signals into "classes" that behave similarly for data reduction and (or) divide-and-conquer problem solving; - classification which optimally matches new data to behavioral classes; - artificial neural networks which optimally fit multivariate data to create predictive models; - model response surface visualization that greatly aids in understanding data and physical processes; and, - decision support systems that integrate data, models, and graphics into a single package that is easy to use.

South Carolina↗