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Water use regimes: Characterizing direct human interaction with hydrologic systems

The sustainability of human water use practices is a rapidly growing concern in the United States and around the world. To better characterize direct human interaction with hydrologic systems (stream basins and aquifers), we introduce the concept of the water use regime. Unlike scalar indicators of anthropogenic hydrologic stress in the literature, the water use regime is a two‐dimensional, vector indicator that can be depicted on simple x‐y plots of normalized human withdrawals ( h out ) versus normalized human return flows ( h in ). Four end‐member regimes, natural‐flow‐dominated (undeveloped), human‐flow‐dominated (churned), withdrawal‐dominated (depleted), and return‐flow‐dominated (surcharged), are defined in relation to limiting values of h out and h in . For illustration, the water use regimes of 19 diverse hydrologic systems are plotted and interpreted. Several of these systems, including the Yellow River Basin, China, and the California Central Valley Aquifer, are shown to approach particular end‐member regimes. Spatial and temporal regime variations, both seasonal and long‐term, are depicted. Practical issues of data availability and regime uncertainty are addressed in relation to the statistical properties of the ratio estimators h out and h in . The water use regime is shown to be a useful tool for comparative water resources assessment and for describing both historic and alternative future pathways of water resource development at a range of scales.

Water Resources Research↗

Response of Ned Wilson Lake watershed, Colorado, to changes in atmospheric deposition of sulfate

The Ned Wilson Lake watershed responds directly and rapidly to changes in precipitation inputs of sulfate, which has important implications for effects of acid deposition on the aquatic system. Chemistry at three precipitation collection sites and three watershed sites (a pond, a lake, and a spring) has been monitored in and near the Flattops Wilderness Area in northwestern Colorado beginning in 1981–1983. Bulk snowpack concentration of sulfate in the watershed and volume-weighted annual mean concentration of sulfate in precipitation at two nearby sites generally decreased from 1981 to 1985, were small through 1987, and increased in 1988–1989. Changes in concentration of sulfate at the watershed sites are controlled by precipitation inputs. Responsiveness of the individual sites was dependent on their position along the hydrologic flow path. The fastest response was in the pond, which has a hydrologic residence time of less than 1 year; over 90% of the variance in concentration of sulfate in the pond was explained by changes in concentration in precipitation. The lake has a hydrologic residence time of 1 to 4 years; a regression model of the concentration of sulfate in the lake, as a function of the concentration in the lake during the previous year and the concentration in precipitation, explained 87% of the variance in concentration of sulfate in the lake. The hydrologic response time of the spring is unknown; it was not responsive to changes in concentration of sulfate in precipitation. The recent increase of sulfate concentration in precipitation and in the pond and lake is evidence for a rapid rather than a delayed response, which could not be determined when only a decreasing trend in sulfate concentration was reported in 1982–1987. Watersheds of this type are sensitive to acidification (acid-neutralizing capacity less than 60 μeq L −1 ), and these results indicate conservative behavior of sulfate. This is important in predicting effects of future changes in atmospheric deposition, which could potentially be caused by anthropogenic emissions or climatic change.

Colorado↗

Coupling groundwater and riparian vegetation models to assess effects of reservoir releases

Although riparian areas in the arid southwestern United States are critical for maintaining species diversity, their extent and health have been declining since Euro‐American settlement. The purpose of this study was to develop a methodology to evaluate the potential for riparian vegetation restoration and groundwater recharge. A numerical groundwater flow model was coupled with a conceptual riparian vegetation model to predict hydrologic conditions favorable to maintaining riparian vegetation downstream of a reservoir. A Geographic Information System (GIS) was used for this one‐way coupling. Constant and seasonally varying releases from the dam were simulated using volumes anticipated to be permitted by a regional water supplier. Simulations indicated that seasonally variable releases would produce surface flow 5.4–8.5 km below the dam in a previously dry reach. Using depth to groundwater simulations from the numerical flow model with conceptual models of depths to water necessary for maintenance of riparian vegetation, the GIS analysis predicted a 5‐ to 6.5‐fold increase in the area capable of sustaining riparian vegetation.

Water Resources Research↗

Integrated monitoring of hydrogeomorphic, vegetative, and edaphic conditions in riparian ecosystems of Great Basin National Park, Nevada

In semiarid regions such as the Great Basin, riparian areas function as oases of cooler and more stable microclimates, greater relative humidity, greater structural complexity, and a steady flow of water and nutrients relative to upland areas. These qualities make riparian areaʼs attractive not only to resident and migratory wildlife, but also to visitors in recreation areas such as Great Basin National Park in the Snake Range, east-central Nevada. To expand upon the system of ten permanent plots sampled in 1992 (Smith et al. 1994) and 2001 (Beever et al. in press ), we established a collection of 31 cross-sectional transects of 50-m width across the mainstems of Strawberry, Lehman, Baker, and Snake creeks. Our aims in this research were threefold: a) map riparian vegetative communities in greater detail than had been done by past efforts; b) provide a monitoring baseline of hydrogeomorphology; structure, composition, and function of upland- and riparianassociated vegetation; and edaphic properties potentially sensitive to management; and c) test whether instream conditions or physiographic variables predicted vegetation patterns across the four target streams. In each of the four watersheds, we performed walking transects from the lower-elevation boundary of the park along creek mainstems to a point well above the point at which vehicle access stopped. In these transects, we ranked, by cover, the riparian and upland woody species on each side of the creek, in 0.32-km segments. These walking transects also facilitated selection of a suite of cross-sectional transects that might serve as an early-warning signal of change for natural (e.g., aggradative) and anthropogenic changes (e.g., due to visitor impacts or climate change). At each cross-sectional transect, we used several methods: a) measurement of the number, approximate volume, and total length of instream logs greater than 10 cm in diameter that were within 5 m up- or downstream of the transect; b) counts of pebbles by size class, following Wolman (1954); c) line-point intercepts, which provided various measures of percent cover; d) gap-intercept transects, following Herrick et al. (in press), to measure susceptibility of uplands to erosion by wind or water; e) 1-m 2 quadrats, to obtain frequency of woody species; f) nested-frequency plots, to measure frequency of all plant species in quadrats of varying size; g) a field-based soil aggregate stability test following Herrick et al. (2001); and h) an impact penetrometer, to measure penetration resistance of soil horizons. We used species-accumulation curves to assess the ability of our methods to detect the majority of plant species at sites, using the most species-rich and species-poor sites as illustrations. We compared characteristics of hydrogeomorphic valley types (designated by Frissell and Liss 1993), vegetation types, and creeks individually and, using multivariate analyses for the first two ʻtypes,ʼ simultaneously. For the latter, using both the nested-frequency and 1-m 2 frequency data, we first used nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMS) to assess relationships of plant communities among sites. Secondly, we used multi-response permutation procedures (MRPP) to test whether plant-community differences existed among either hydrogeomophic valley types or vegetation types. To increase the value of these comparisons for management, we used indicator species analyses to quantify the indicator value of each individual plant species for separating groups. In contrast to the more incised riparian channels of central Nevada, we observed knickzones, downcutting, and incision only rarely and usually with limited extent in the walking surveys. Downcutting occurred most frequently and extensively in Strawberry and Snake creeks, due in part to their more erodible soils. According to a hydrogeomorphologist with extensive experience in Great Basin riparian systems, the sediment-delivery and hydrologic systems appeared relatively undisturbed in most reaches, with respect to grazing animals and other types of anthropogenic alteration. Site elevation of the 31 transects ranged from 1,950-2,987 m, and stream slope (i.e., gradient) was relatively steep (mean = 9.3%, range 3-16%). Strawberry Creek averaged the lowest maximum water depth, and correspondingly had greatest width/depth ratios. Baker Creek sites averaged the smallest amount of tree-canopy gaps, whereas Snake Creek sites on average had the largest proportion of gaps in understory vegetation. Sites in terrace-bound valley types averaged the lowest slope in the channel as well as the least cover of trees, litter, and vegetation overall, whereas alluviated, boulder-bed canyon sites averaged the greatest widths of the active channel. Sites in Lehman Creek averaged nearly twice as much coarse woody debris as sites from any other creek, whereas Baker Creek sites averaged greatest tree cover (mean = 67%, range 40 – 96%) and species richness (mean = 17.3 species). Multivariate ordinations suggested that sites in leveed outwash valleys and alluvial-fan-influenced valleys had the greatest inter-site heterogeneity in plant composition, whereas sites in incised moraine-filled valleys appeared most homogeneous. Differences among homogeneity of sites within vegetation types were less pronounced, but sites dominated by either aspen and Woodsʼ rose or narrow-leaved cottonwood had the most similar plant communities among sites of the same vegetation type. A number of species were faithful indicators of various valley and vegetation types, using either set of plant-frequency data. We estimate that all 31 sites could be subsequently re-sampled in 14-18 field days by individuals possessing familiarity of the riparian flora of the southern Snake Range. As with any research, monitoring-focused investigations must balance the concerns for number of ecosystem attributes measured, extensiveness in time and space of sampling periods and locations, and the time and cost of sampling.

Nevada↗

Wind River Subbasin Restoration Annual Report of USGS Activities January 2021 through December 2022

We sampled juvenile wild Steelhead Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss in headwater streams of the Wind River, WA, to characterize population attributes and investigate life-history metrics, particularly migratory patterns, and early life-stage survival. We used passive integrated transponder (PIT) tagging and a series of instream PIT-tag interrogation systems (PTISs) to track juveniles and adults. The Wind River subbasin is considered a wild Steelhead refuge by Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW). No hatchery Steelhead Trout have been released in the Wind River subbasin since 1997, and hatchery adults are estimated at less than one percent of spawners in most years. Over twenty years of Steelhead Trout status and trend monitoring and research in the subbasin is contributing to understanding of population response to numerous restoration actions in the subbasin, including removal of Hemlock Dam from Trout Creek in 2009, which had an outdated adult ladder and contributed to increased water temperatures reducing performance of juvenile Steelhead Trout. Data from our study, and companion work by Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, are contributing to Bonneville Power Administrations (BPA) Research, Monitoring, and Evaluation (RM&E) Program Strategy of Fish Population Status Monitoring (https://www.cbfish.org/ProgramStrategy.mvc/Index). Specifically, this work addresses the sub-strategies of 1) Assessing the Status and Trends of Diversity of Natural Origin Fish Populations and Uncertainties Research regarding differing life histories of a wild Steelhead Trout population, 2) Assessing the Status and Trend of Adult Natural Origin Fish Populations, and 3) Monitoring and Evaluating the Effectiveness of Tributary Habitat Actions Relative to Environmental, Physical, or Biological Performance Objectives. During summer and fall 2021 and 2022, we PIT-tagged 1,889 and 1,391 Steelhead parr (age-0 and age-1), respectively, in the Trout Creek and upper Wind River watersheds. Age-0 parr were at lower densities in 2022 than many years due to a poor return of adult Steelhead spawners in 2022. Steelhead Trout parr were recaptured and detected through repeat headwater sampling, smolt trap operations, and instream PTISs and Columbia River PIT-tag detection infrastructure. We maintained, and upgraded in 2022, a series of six instream PTISs to monitor movement of tagged Steelhead Trout parr, smolts, and adults, providing data to population assessments, and life-cycle research and modeling. We continue to improve our PTISs in the Wind River subbasin. The improvements in siting and addition of grid power to the upper Wind River PTIS (site code WRU, rkm 27.6) during 2016 and 2017, and the addition of the Mine Reach site (site code MIN, rkm 36.0) have much improved PIT-tagged fish monitoring in the upper Wind River watershed. The paired PTIS design in the upper Wind River watershed (sites WRU and MIN) matches that in the Trout Creek watershed (sites TRC, rkm 2.0; and TC4, rkm 11.5) and will allow comparisons of Steelhead Trout population metrics between the two watersheds as response to Hemlock Dam removal continues and future restoration efforts occur in Trout Creek. During summer 2022, we upgraded three PTISs with new transceivers and new or reconfigured antennas. We replaced the Biomark 1001 Multiplexing Transceivers with Biomark MTS IS1001 Master Controller and individual IS1001 Transceivers at WRU, TRC (Trout Creek, rkm 2.0), and TC4 (Trout Creek at 43 Road Bridge, rkm 11.5). These new transceivers and antennas will improve detection performance due to increased read range and decreased susceptibility to noise. We also installed an additional IS1001 Transceiver and 11-foot antenna at WRA in summer 2021 to increase cross-channel and water column coverage. Detection data from PIT-tagged adult Steelhead Trout at PTISs allow assessment of adult escapement to tributary watersheds within the Wind River subbasin. Adult Steelhead Trout detection efficiency estimates at our primary PTIS in Trout Creek have been greater than 99 percent during six of the past eight years and have exceeded 97% at our primary PTIS in the Wind River during seven of the past eight years. Adult escapement estimates to tributary watersheds are helping us evaluate the efficacy of the 2009 removal of Hemlock Dam from rkm 2.0 of Trout Creek. The dam had potential negative effects on Steelhead Trout populations in Trout Creek due to hydrologic impairment, increased temperatures, and adult passage issues. Hemlock Dam was laddered for adult passage, but not to modern standards, which likely resulted in avoidance by some adult Steelhead Trout. Detections at the instream PTISs have demonstrated trends of age-0 and age-1 parr emigration from natal areas during summer and fall, in addition to the expected movement of parr and smolts in spring. We have estimated that from 15 to 51% of parr tagged as age-0 fish in headwater areas make downstream migrations at age 1 for additional rearing. Downstream movement occurs primarily during spring but also in fall. We have estimated that up to 27% of Steelhead Trout parr, tagged as age-1 fish, make downstream migrations during fall. Fall migration of age-1 parr has been more common in the upper Wind River watershed than the Trout Creek watershed. These findings raise questions about where parr most successfully rear and whether migrations are density- or habitat-quality driven. Broader monitoring programs would give a more comprehensive understanding of juvenile Steelhead Trout production and rearing and contributions to adult recruitment from varied rearing strategies. Repeat sampling at consistent locations in the subbasin has enabled assessment of juvenile Steelhead Trout growth patterns. Growth rates (relative change in weight) of age-0 PIT-tagged parr during summer were similar across the subbasin, though slightly lower in the Trout Creek watershed. The greatest summer growth rate was in the mainstem of the Wind River (rkm 37 and 41). Summer growth rates were lower for age-1 parr in the Trout Creek watershed than the upper Wind River watershed. Yearly relative growth was similar across the subbasin for both age-0 and age-1 tagged parr. Lower Layout Creek had the highest yearly growth rate of parr from age-0 to age-1. Mainstem Wind River (rkm 37) had the highest yearly growth rate of parr from age-1 to age-2. Non-native Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis are present in the subbasin, chiefly the Trout Creek watershed, and repeat sampling provides an index of their prevalence. Mean percent-of-catch that is Brook Trout, at four sample sites in Trout Creek, has declined from the period 1998 2003 to the period 2011 2022. Percent-of-catch and number of Brook Trout at the Trout Creek sites from 2011 through 2022 has generally declined, though both metrics have been somewhat variable. Evaluation and planning of habitat restoration efforts are critical to ensure efficient use of money and resources. Assessing Steelhead Trout life history variation in the Wind River subbasin will inform research and tracking of many populations and help inform habitat restoration and water allocation planning. Movement of Steelhead Trout parr from natal areas to other rearing areas raises questions regarding juvenile abundance, origin, and habitat use within watersheds. Improved PTISs and focused PIT-tagging of age-0 and age-1 Steelhead Trout parr allow investigation of such questions. Increasingly detailed viable salmonid population information, such as that provided by PIT-tagging and instream PTIS networks like those in the Wind River, can provide data to inform fisheries policy and management and understand life-history strategies and limiting factors. Such efforts also enable assessment of long-term effects of habitat restoration actions such as the removal of Hemlock Dam on Trout Creek, and the proposed Stage-0 restoration effort for upper Trout Creek, which would be a large-scale effort to reset sections of stream within their floodplain, restoring connectivity and interaction with surrounding landscape.

Report↗

Floodplain biogeochemical processing of floodwaters in the Atchafalaya River Basin during the Mississippi River flood of 2011

The 2011 flood in the Lower Mississippi resulted in the second highest recorded river flow diverted into the Atchafalaya River Basin (ARB). The higher water levels during the flood peak resulted in high hydrologic connectivity between the Atchafalaya River and floodplain, with up to 50% of the Atchafalaya River water moving off channel. Water quality samples were collected throughout the ARB over the course of the flood event. Significant nitrate (NO 3 -) reduction (75%) occurred within the floodplain, resulting in a total NO 3 - reduction of 16.6% over the flood. The floodplain was a small but measurable source of dissolved reactive phosphorus (SRP) and ammonium (NH 4 +). Collectively, these results from this large flood event suggest that enhancing river-floodplain connectivity through freshwater diversions will reduce NO 3 - loads to the Gulf of Mexico during large annual floods.

Louisiana↗

Ontogenetic shifts in mesohabitat use of young-of-year Rio Grande blue sucker in the Big Bend region of the Rio Grande

Alteration of flow regimes by anthropogenic activities is one of the primary environmental problems in riverine systems. Understanding how hydrologic conditions can affect ontogenetic habitat shifts of imperiled fishes is important in order to develop conservation and management strategies for each life-history stage. We examined relationships between the abundance of young-of-the-year (YOY) Rio Grande Blue Sucker and various abiotic variables in the Trans-Pecos region of the Rio Grande in Texas, USA. We used open N -mixture modeling to better understand the factors affecting ontogenetic habitat shifts of the imperiled aridland river fish. In addition, we examined differences in Rio Grande Blue Sucker total length among three mesohabitat types (pool, riffle, and run). The results of open N -mixture modeling suggested that as pool area increased, the abundance of YOY Rio Grande Blue Sucker increased. Total length of YOY Rio Grande Blue Sucker also significantly differed among the three mesohabitat types. The total lengths of YOY Rio Grande Blue Sucker in pool habitats were lower than in other mesohabitats, suggesting that YOY Rio Grande Blue Sucker undergo ontogenetic habitat shifts into greater current velocity habitats as they grow. The habitat associations we documented support the growing body of research emphasizing the importance of maintaining sufficient and appropriately timed flows to avoid prolonged low flows that limit habitat availability for native fish species during sensitive life stages in the Rio Grande and other aridland rivers.

Texas↗

Launching into societal benefits from the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission

The 10th Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) Applications Meeting, held one year after the satellite's launch, highlighted significant milestones in mission progress and showcased the innovative work of SWOT Early Adopters (EA) using mission data products. Over 100 participants from diverse sectors convened to discuss operational applications leveraging SWOT's unprecedented water surface measurements. The meeting emphasized applied science efforts to enhance hydrology and oceanographic models. This summary highlights the breadth of operational and private-sector uses of SWOT data, emphasizing its potential to drive new innovations and deliver societal benefits, such as improved water resource management, flood prediction, and climate resilience.

Water Resources Research↗

How restructuring river connectivity changes freshwater fish biodiversity and biogeography

Interbasin water transfer projects, in which river connectivity is restructured via man-made canals, are an increasingly popular solution to address the spatial mismatch between supply and demand of fresh water. However, the ecological consequences of such restructuring remain largely unexplored, and there are no general theoretical guidelines from which to derive these expectations. River systems provide excellent opportunities to explore how network connectivity shapes habitat occupancy, community dynamics, and biogeographic patterns. We apply a neutral model (which assumes competitive equivalence among species within a stochastic framework) to an empirically derived river network to explore how proposed changes in network connectivity may impact patterns of freshwater fish biodiversity. Without predicting the responses of individual extant species, we find the addition of canals connecting hydrologically isolated river basins facilitates the spread of common species and increases average local species richness without changing the total species richness of the system. These impacts are sensitive to the parameters controlling the spatial scale of fish dispersal, with increased dispersal affording more opportunities for biotic restructuring at the community and landscape scales. Connections between isolated basins have a much larger effect on local species richness than those connecting reaches within a river basin, even when those within-basin reaches are far apart. As a result, interbasin canal projects have the potential for long-term impacts to continental-scale riverine communities.

Water Resources Research↗

Potential shifts in zooplankton community structure in response to changing ice regimes and hydrologic connectivity

Changing Arctic climate may alter freshwater ecosystems as a result of warmer surface waters, longer open-water periods, reduced wintertime lake ice growth, and altered hydrologic connectivity. This study aims to characterize zooplankton community composition and size structure in the context of hydrologic connectivity and ice regimes in Arctic lakes. Between 2011 and 2016, we sampled the phytoplankton, zooplankton, and fish communities from a set of representative lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of northern Alaska to determine potential food web responses to changing Arctic ecosystems. Multivariate analyses showed that time from ice-out had a strong influence on zooplankton community structure and that seasonal succession of zooplankton differed between lakes with varying hydrologic connectivity. Trends were observed suggesting that large-bodied zooplankton ( Daphnia , calanoid copepods) may be more prevalent in poorly connected lakes with low fish diversity. Large-bodied zooplankton displayed higher biomass in lakes with high occurrences of bedfast ice, while small-bodied zooplankton ( Bosmina , rotifers) displayed highest biomass in deeper lakes with low occurrences of bedfast ice. Our results contribute to limited knowledge of zooplankton in remote lakes of the ACP and suggest that the anticipated changes to aquatic ecosystems in the Arctic may include energetically less efficient plankton food webs.

Alaska↗

Improved automated detection of subpixel-scale inundation – Revised Dynamic Surface Water Extent (DSWE) partial surface water tests

In order to produce useful hydrologic and aquatic habitat data from the Landsat system, the U.S. Geological Survey has developed the “Dynamic Surface Water Extent” (DSWE) Landsat Science Product. DSWE will provide long-term, high-temporal resolution data on variations in inundation extent. The model used to generate DSWE is composed of five decision-rule based tests that do not require scene-based training. To allow its general application, required inputs are limited to the Landsat at-surface reflectance product and a digital elevation model. Unlike other Landsat-based water products, DSWE includes pixels that are only partially covered by water to increase inundation dynamics information content. Previously published DSWE model development included one wetland-focused test developed through visual inspection of field-collected Everglades spectra. A comparison of that test’s output against Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN) in situ data confirmed the expectation that omission errors were a prime source of inaccuracy in vegetated environments. Further evaluation exposed a tendency toward commission error in coniferous forests. Improvements to the subpixel level “partial surface water” (PSW) component of DSWE was the focus of this research. Spectral mixture models were created from a variety of laboratory and image-derived endmembers. Based on the mixture modeling, a more “aggressive” PSW rule improved accuracy in herbaceous wetlands and reduced errors of commission elsewhere, while a second “conservative” test provides an alternative when commission errors must be minimized. Replication of the EDEN-based experiments using the revised PSW tests yielded a statistically significant increase in mean overall agreement (4%, p = 0.01, n = 50) and a statistically significant decrease (11%, p = 0.009, n = 50) in mean errors of omission. Because the developed spectral mixture models included image-derived vegetation endmembers and laboratory spectra for soil groups found across the US, simulations suggest where the revised DSWE PSW tests perform as they do in the Everglades and where they may prove problematic. Visual comparison of DSWE outputs with an unusual variety of coincidently collected images for locations spread throughout the US support conclusions drawn from Everglades quantitative analyses and highlight DSWE PSW component strengths and weaknesses.

Remote Sensing↗

Predicting the likelihood of altered streamflows at ungauged rivers across the conterminous United States

An approach is presented in this study to aid water-resource managers in characterizing streamflow alteration at ungauged rivers. Such approaches can be used to take advantage of the substantial amounts of biological data collected at ungauged rivers to evaluate the potential ecological consequences of altered streamflows. National-scale random forest statistical models are developed to predict the likelihood that ungauged rivers have altered streamflows (relative to expected natural condition) for five hydrologic metrics (HMs) representing different aspects of the streamflow regime. The models use human disturbance variables, such as number of dams and road density, to predict the likelihood of streamflow alteration. For each HM, separate models are derived to predict the likelihood that the observed metric is greater than (‘inflated’) or less than (‘diminished’) natural conditions. The utility of these models is demonstrated by applying them to all river segments in the South Platte River in Colorado, USA, and for all 10-digit hydrologic units in the conterminous United States. In general, the models successfully predicted the likelihood of alteration to the five HMs at the national scale as well as in the South Platte River basin. However, the models predicting the likelihood of diminished HMs consistently outperformed models predicting inflated HMs, possibly because of fewer sites across the conterminous United States where HMs are inflated. The results of these analyses suggest that the primary predictors of altered streamflow regimes across the Nation are (i) the residence time of annual runoff held in storage in reservoirs, (ii) the degree of urbanization measured by road density and (iii) the extent of agricultural land cover in the river basin.

River Research and Applications↗

Characterizing the performance of ecosystem models across time scales: A spectral analysis of the North American Carbon Program site‐level synthesis

[1] Ecosystem models are important tools for diagnosing the carbon cycle and projecting its behavior across space and time. Despite the fact that ecosystems respond to drivers at multiple time scales, most assessments of model performance do not discriminate different time scales. Spectral methods, such as wavelet analyses, present an alternative approach that enables the identification of the dominant time scales contributing to model performance in the frequency domain. In this study we used wavelet analyses to synthesize the performance of 21 ecosystem models at 9 eddy covariance towers as part of the North American Carbon Program's site‐level intercomparison. This study expands upon previous single‐site and single‐model analyses to determine what patterns of model error are consistent across a diverse range of models and sites. To assess the significance of model error at different time scales, a novel Monte Carlo approach was developed to incorporate flux observation error. Failing to account for observation error leads to a misidentification of the time scales that dominate model error. These analyses show that model error (1) is largest at the annual and 20–120 day scales, (2) has a clear peak at the diurnal scale, and (3) shows large variability among models in the 2–20 day scales. Errors at the annual scale were consistent across time, diurnal errors were predominantly during the growing season, and intermediate‐scale errors were largely event driven. Breaking spectra into discrete temporal bands revealed a significant model‐by‐band effect but also a nonsignificant model‐by‐site effect, which together suggest that individual models show consistency in their error patterns. Differences among models were related to model time step, soil hydrology, and the representation of photosynthesis and phenology but not the soil carbon or nitrogen cycles. These factors had the greatest impact on diurnal errors, were less important at annual scales, and had the least impact at intermediate time scales.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences↗

Spatially referenced models of streamflow and nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended-sediment transport in streams of the southwestern United States

Given the predicted imbalance between water supply and demand in the Southwest region of the United States, and the widespread problems with excessive nutrients and suspended sediment, there is a growing need to quantify current streamflow and water quality conditions throughout the region. Furthermore, current monitoring stations exist at a limited number of locations, and many streams lack streamflow and water quality information. SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models were developed for hydrologic conditions representative of 2012 in order to understand how climate, land use, and other landscape characteristics control the yields of water, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and suspended sediment across the Southwest region. The calibration data (mean annual streamflow and loads) for each of the four SPARROW models were based on continuous streamflow and discrete water-quality observations from throughout the region. Explanatory variables for the models consisted of regional datasets representing a range of potential sources of streamflow, nitrogen, phosphorous, and sediment, and processes that control the transport from land to water and attenuate loads within streams and waterbodies. Calibration and explanatory data were referenced to a surface water drainage network that allowed for routing and transport of water and loads through the region. The model results showed that wastewater discharge is the largest contributor to total nitrogen and total phosphorus yield from the Southwest region and forest land is the largest contributor to suspended-sediment yield, but that other sources such as atmospheric nitrogen deposition, agricultural runoff, and runoff from developed land are locally important across the region. The results from this study could complement research and inform water-quality management activities in the Southwest region. Examples might include identifying potentially impaired waterbodies and guiding remediation efforts where impairment has been documented, explaining the spatial patterns in harmful algal blooms, and providing estimates of sediment and nutrient loadings where such data are scarce or non-existent.

Southwestern United States↗

Hydrogeologic controls on the groundwater interactions with an acidic lake in karst terrain, Lake Barco, Florida

Transient groundwater interactions and lake stage were simulated for Lake Barco, an acidic seepage lake in the mantled karst of north central Florida. Karst subsidence features affected groundwater flow patterns in the basin and groundwater fluxes to and from the lake. Subsidence features peripheral to the lake intercepted potential groundwater inflow and increased leakage from the shallow perimeter of the lake bed. Simulated groundwater fluxes were checked against net groundwater flow derived from a detailed lake hydrologic budget with short-term lake evaporation computed by the energy budget method. Discrepancies between modeled and budget-derived net groundwater flows indicated that the model underestimated groundwater inflow, possibly contributed to by transient water table mounding near the lake. Recharge from rainfall reduced lake leakage by 10 to 15 times more than it increased groundwater inflow. As a result of the karst setting, the contributing groundwater basin to the lake was 2.4 ha for simulated average rainfall conditions, compared to the topographically derived drainage basin area of 81 ha. Short groundwater inflow path lines and rapid travel times limit the contribution of acid-neutralizing solutes from the basin, making Lake Barco susceptible to increased acidification by acid rain.

Water Resources Research↗

Flood trends and river engineering on the Mississippi River system

Along >4000 km of the Mississippi River system, we document that climate, land-use change, and river engineering have contributed to statistically significant increases in flooding over the past 100-150 years. Trends were tested using a database of >8 million hydrological measurements. A geospatial database of historical engineering construction was used to quantify the response of flood levels to each unit of engineering infrastructure. Significant climate- and/or land use-driven increases in flow were detected, but the largest and most pervasive contributors to increased flooding on the Mississippi River system were wing dikes and related navigational structures, followed by progressive levee construction. In the area of the 2008 Upper Mississippi flood, for example, about 2 m of the flood crest is linked to navigational and flood-control engineering. Systemwide, large increases in flood levels were documented at locations and at times of wing-dike and levee construction. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

Biogeochemical effects of global change on U.S. National Parks

Federal parks and other public lands have unique mandates and rules regulating their use and conservation. Because of variation in their response to local, regional, and global-scale disturbance, development of mitigation strategies requires substantial research in the context of long-term inventory and monitoring. In 1982, the National Park Service began long-term, watershed-level studies in a series of national parks. The objective was to provide a more comprehensive database against which the effects of global change and other issues could be quantified. A subset of five sites in North Carolina, Texas, Washington, Michigan, and Alaska, is examined here. During the last 50 years, temperatures have declined at the southern sites and increased at the northern sites with the greatest increase in Alaska. Only the most southern site has shown an increase in precipitation amount. The net effect of these trends, especially for the most northern and southern sites, would likely be an increase in the growing season and especially the time soil processes could continue without moisture or temperature limitations. During the last 18 years, there were few trends in atmospheric ion inputs. The most evident was the decline in SO 4 2 deposition. There were no significant relationships between ion input and stream water output. This finding suggests other factors as modification of precipitation or canopy throughfall by soil processes, hydrologic flow path, and snowmelt rates are major processes regulating stream water chemical outputs.

Alaska, Michigan, North Carolina, Texas, Washingto↗

The chemical and hydrologic structure of Poas volcano, Costa Rica

Comparison of the chemical characteristics of spring and river water draining the flanks of Poas Volcano, Costa Rica indicates that acid chloride sulfate springs of the northwestern flank of the volcano are derived by leakage and mixing of acid brines formed in the summit hydrothermal system with dilute flank groundwater. Acid chloride sulfate waters of the Rio Agrio drainage basin on the northwestern flank are the only waters on Poas that are affected by leakage of acid brines from the summit hydrothermal system. Acid sulfate waters found on the northwestern flank are produced by the interaction of surface and shallow groundwater with dry and wet acid deposition of SO2 and H2SO4 aerosols, respectively. The acid deposition is caused by a plume of acid gases that is released by a shallow magma body located beneath the active crater of Poas. -from Authors

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗