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USGS2015

The effects of heterospecifics and climatic conditions on incubation behavior within a mixed-species colony

Parental incubation behavior largely influences nest survival, a critical demographic process in avian population dynamics, and behaviors vary across species with different life history breeding strategies. Although research has identified nest survival advantages of mixing colonies, behavioral mechanisms that might explain these effects is largely lacking. We examined parental incubation behavior using video-monitoring techniques on Alcatraz Island, California, of black-crowned night-heron Nycticorax nycticorax (hereinafter, night-heron) in a mixed-species colony with California gulls Larus californicus and western gulls L. occidentalis . We first quantified general nesting behaviors (i.e. incubation constancy, and nest attendance), and a suite of specific nesting behaviors (i.e. inactivity, vigilance, preening, and nest maintenance) with respect to six different daily time periods. We employed linear mixed effects models to investigate environmental and temporal factors as sources of variation in incubation constancy and nest attendance using 211 nest days across three nesting seasons (2010–2012). We found incubation constancy (percent of time on the eggs) and nest attendance (percent of time at the nest) were lower for nests that were located < 3 m from one or more gull nest, which indirectly supports the predator protection hypothesis, whereby heterospecifics provide protection allowing more time for foraging and other self-maintenance activities. To our knowledge, this is the first empirical evidence of the influence of one nesting species on the incubation behavior of another. We also identified distinct differences between incubation constancy and nest attentiveness, indicating that these biparental incubating species do not share similar energetic constraints as those that are observed for uniparental species. Additionally, we found that variation in incubation behavior was a function of temperature and precipitation, where the strength of these effects was dependent on the time of day. Overall, these findings strengthen our understanding of incubation behavior and nest ecology of a colonial-nesting species.

California↗

USGS2022

Identifying monitoring information needs that support the management of fish in large rivers

Management actions intended to benefit fish in large rivers can directly or indirectly affect multiple ecosystem components. Without consideration of the effects of management on non-target ecosystem components, unintended consequences may limit management efficacy. Monitoring can help clarify the effects of management actions, including on non-target ecosystem components, but only if data are collected to characterize key ecosystem processes that could affect the outcome. Scientists from across the U.S. convened to develop a conceptual model that would help identify monitoring information needed to better understand how natural and anthropogenic factors affect large river fishes. We applied the conceptual model to case studies in four large U.S. rivers. The application of the conceptual model indicates the model is flexible and relevant to large rivers in different geographic settings and with different management challenges. By visualizing how natural and anthropogenic drivers directly or indirectly affect cascading ecosystem tiers, our model identified critical information gaps and uncertainties that, if resolved, could inform how to best meet management objectives. Despite large differences in the physical and ecological contexts of the river systems, the case studies also demonstrated substantial commonalities in the data needed to better understand how stressors affect fish in these systems. For example, in most systems information on river discharge and water temperature were needed and available. Conversely, information regarding trophic relationships and the habitat requirements of larval fishes were generally lacking. This result suggests that there is a need to better understand a set of common factors across large-river systems. We provide a stepwise procedure to facilitate the application of our conceptual model to other river systems and management goals.

Environmental Management↗

USGS2024

Gulf killifish (Fundulus grandis) in the Pecos River: Unique life history traits in a nonnative, island population

Nonnative species may display unique life history traits when established in habitats with distinctive environmental and biotic contexts compared with their native ecosystems. Gulf killifish ( Fundulus grandis ), native to coastal habitats of the Gulf of Mexico, are established in several inland river systems where they pose a potential threat to native fishes. In the Pecos River, Texas, nonnative Gulf killifish have shown a high rate of piscivory compared with native coastal populations; otherwise, little is known about the ecology of the species in inland systems. We examined reproductive characteristics, size, and age of Gulf killifish in the Pecos River. We found that reproduction takes place approximately between late March and September, with the gonadosomatic index of females showing a large and extended peak in spring and a second minor peak in late August–September. Our age estimations indicate that this population consists mostly of fish <2 years old, similarly to that reported for coastal populations. Total length ranged 11.9–143.4 mm for males and 32.3–162.5 mm for females, indicating a sexually dimorphic size structure with Pecos River individuals reaching larger sizes compared with coastal populations. The relatively large size and piscivorous nature of Gulf killifish, along with tolerance for a wide range of environmental conditions, are attributes in nonnative species hypothesized to promote invasion success and replacement of native species.

New Mexico, Texas↗

USGS2008

Delineation of landform and lithologic units for Ecological Landtype-Association analysis in Glacier Bay National Park, Southeast Alaska

Landform and generalized bedrock lithologic units have been delineated for ecological landtype association analysis in Glacier Bay National Park in southeast Alaska (as the Park boundaries were defined before the 1971 Alaska National Interest Lands expansion). Related U.S. Forest Service efforts have covered (1) the whole region at coarse ecological- unit scale, including domains, divisions, provinces, sections, and subsections; and (2) small parts the region at subsection scale. These small parts are generally forest-covered shoreline to timberline areas with relatively subdued topography, extensive bedrock exposures, and no active glaciers. The detailed studies established that the combination of landform and bedrock-lithologic information was a good indicator of ecosystem productivity and types of plant communities. This study of Glacier Bay National Park covers areas similar to those of the detailed studies but also includes a large proportion of high (15,300 feet), glacier-clad alpine terrain and large, active-valley glacier systems. This terrain reflects (1) the orographic and microclimatic effects associated with the high-altitude barrier that is the Fairweather Range part of the St. Elias Mountains and its rapidly retreating glaciers, and (2) the geologic, tectonic, and erosional history of this range. In this study, landforms were classified-by using topographic maps and personal experience-into eight categories similar to those used by the U.S. Forest Service. The 90 bedrock-lithologic units on the current Glacier Bay geologic map were classified into 13 generalized lithologic units corresponding exactly to those used by the U.S. Forest Service. Incomplete storm-track, storm-intensity, and limited climatic information have also been compiled.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2012

Inferring local competition intensity from patch size distributions: a test using biological soil crusts

Dryland vegetation is inherently patchy. This patchiness goes on to impact ecology, hydrology, and biogeochemistry. Recently, researchers have proposed that dryland vegetation patch sizes follow a power law which is due to local plant facilitation. It is unknown what patch size distribution prevails when competition predominates over facilitation, or if such a pattern could be used to detect competition. We investigated this question in an alternative vegetation type, mosses and lichens of biological soil crusts, which exhibit a smaller scale patch-interpatch configuration. This micro-vegetation is characterized by competition for space. We proposed that multiplicative effects of genetics, environment and competition should result in a log-normal patch size distribution. When testing the prevalence of log-normal versus power law patch size distributions, we found that the log-normal was the better distribution in 53% of cases and a reasonable fit in 83%. In contrast, the power law was better in 39% of cases, and in 8% of instances both distributions fit equally well. We further hypothesized that the log-normal distribution parameters would be predictably influenced by competition strength. There was qualitative agreement between one of the distribution's parameters (μ) and a novel intransitive (lacking a 'best' competitor) competition index, suggesting that as intransitivity increases, patch sizes decrease. The correlation of μ with other competition indicators based on spatial segregation of species (the C-score) depended on aridity. In less arid sites, μ was negatively correlated with the C-score (suggesting smaller patches under stronger competition), while positive correlations (suggesting larger patches under stronger competition) were observed at more arid sites. We propose that this is due to an increasing prevalence of competition transitivity as aridity increases. These findings broaden the emerging theory surrounding dryland patch size distributions and, with refinement, may help us infer cryptic ecological processes from easily observed spatial patterns in the field.

Oikos↗

USGS2026

CrustCheck: A conceptual framework for interpreting biocrust trait–function relationships in drylands

Introduction Biocrusts are increasingly recognized for their contribution to soil stability, hydrology, nutrient cycling, and energy balance in drylands, yet practical field methods for assessing functional roles are limited. Existing approaches typically rely on cover estimates, taxonomic identification, or laboratory analyses, providing little insight into functional variation among biocrust types. To address this gap, we developed CrustCheck, a literature-derived conceptual framework that synthesizes potential relationships between easily observable biocrust traits and key ecological functions. The framework provides a foundation for future empirical validation of these relationships. Objectives We aimed to: (1) identify visual characteristics of biocrusts potentially associated with key ecological functions, and (2) synthesize these relationships into a literature-derived conceptual framework for comparative interpretation of potential biocrust contributions to landscape function. Methods We conducted a structured review of global literature on biocrusts' contribution to landscape function, drawing on multiple databases, targeted journals, and identifying relevant scientific publications from reference lists. We screened sources for information on relationships between visual traits and metrics of landscape function, synthesized relationships thematically, and used them to develop a multi-trait, function-oriented conceptual framework to inform further testing of these hypotheses in the field. Results Our review revealed that visual traits such as thickness/height, patchiness, cover, and surface roughness emerged as potential indicators of surface stability, hydrological function, and nutrient accumulation. Community composition was also frequently associated with these functions, while color reflected energy balance and carbon fixation potential. Conclusions Literature reveals that visual traits of biocrusts may serve as proxies for landscape function. CrustCheck is presented here as a conceptual synthesis framework intended to support interpretation of potential trait–function relationships rather than as a quantitatively validated predictive tool.

Restoration Ecology↗

USGS1996

Empirical Bayes estimation of proportions with application to cowbird parasitism rates

Bayesian models provide a structure for studying collections of parameters such are considered in the investigation of communities, ecosystems, and landscapes. This structure allows for improved estimation of individual parameters by considering them in the context of a group of related parameters. Individual estimates are differntially adjusted toward in overall mean, with the magnitude of their adjustment based on their precision. Consequently, Bayesian estimation allows for a more reliable ranking of parameters and, in particular, a more credible identification of extreme values from a collection of estimates. In Bayesian models, individual parameters are regarded as values sampled from a specified probability distribution, called a prior. The requirements that the prior be known is often regarded as an unattractive feature of Bayesian analysis and may be the reason Bayesian analyses are not frequently applied in ecological studies. Empirical Bayes methods provide an alternative approach that incorporates the structural advantages of Bayesian models while requirng a less stringent specification of prior knowledge. Empirical Bayes methods require only that the prior be in a certain family of distributions, indexed by hyperparameters that can be estimated from the available data. This structur is of interest per se, in addition to its value in allowing for improved estimation of individual parameters; for example, hypothese regarding the existence of distinct subgroups in a collection of paramet ers can be considered under the empirical Bayes framework by allowing the hyperparameters to vary among subgroups. We describe the empirical Bayes approach in application to estimation of proportions, using data obtained in a community—wide study Brown—headed Cowbird paratism rates for illustration. Empirical Bayes estimates identify those species for which there is the greatest evidence of extreme parasitism rates. Subgroup analysis of our data on cowbird parasitism rates indicates that parasitisms rates for neotropical migrants as a group are no greater than those of resident/short—distance migrant in this forest community. Our data and analyses demonstrate that the parasitism rates for certain neotropical migrant species (Wood Thrush and Rose—breasted Grosbeak) are remarkably low while those for others (Ovenbird and Red—eyed Vireo) are remarkably high.

Ecology↗

USGS2024

Integration of Indigenous Research Methodologies, Traditional Ecological Knowledge and molecular scatology in an assessment of mesocarnivore presence, diet and habitat use on Yurok Ancestral Lands.

Partnerships between Tribes and researchers in wildlife monitoring and application of Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK) have taken a variety of forms, and some scholars have noted a need for culturally sensitive approaches. Guided by Indigenous Research Methodologies, this research is coupled with Yurok TEK, or hlkelonah 'ue-megetohl ('to take care of the earth'), enabling an applied, culturally sensitive approach in partnership with the Yurok Tribe. We present results from a molecular scatology study of wildlife within the ancestral territory of the Yurok Tribe. Scats were collected opportunistically on road transects. All samples ( N = 132) were analysed via DNA barcoding and results matched to documented 'Oohl 'we-toh (Yurok language) names to determine the depositor species ( N = 8). Though there were four focal mesocarnivore species in our study, only bobcat ( Chmuuek; Lynx rufus ) and gray fox ( Wergers; Urocyon cinereoargenteus ) were detected as depositor species. Post hoc analyses were conducted to explore distribution, habitat use and selection in a use-availability context, and food habits of these two species. We found almost complete separation of bobcat and gray fox use of transects, as well as indication of partitioning of vegetation cover types and food. We demonstrate an integrated framework of Western and Indigenous sciences that allows the Indigenous researcher to transcend structured academic disciplinary boundaries. Our approach can be modified for partnerships between Tribes, agencies, academics and students for wildlife monitoring in broader geographic regions in various research applications.

California↗

USGS2026

Beyond barriers: Fish assemblage recovery following dam removal on the Cuyahoga River, a Lake Erie tributary

Dam removals are increasing globally, yet ecological outcomes vary widely because biological recovery depends on post-removal connectivity and access to source populations. We evaluated how multiple dam removals and remaining fragmentation influenced fish assemblage recovery in the Cuyahoga River (OH, United States), a historically polluted Great Lakes tributary now undergoing extensive remediation and restoration. Using fish assemblage data collected from 1984 to 2024 across reaches downstream, within, and upstream of the Gorge Plant Dam (GPD), an 18-m barrier slated for removal, we quantified spatial and temporal change with ordination, trajectory, and distance-based redundancy analyses. Downstream assemblages showed a clear shift through time and gained 15 newly detected taxa after the 2020 Brecksville Dam removal increased longitudinal connectivity to Lake Erie by 39 river kilometers, more than doubling free-flowing habitat below GPD. In contrast, assemblages upstream of GPD exhibited limited change and patterns consistent with redistribution of resident species rather than colonization-driven turnover. Across the full time series, site position relative to GPD and the rate of dam removal were the strongest predictors of assemblage variation, with habitat gradients (e.g. depth, velocity, turbidity, and canopy cover) further differentiating reaches. Together, these results show that connectivity and barrier position shape assemblage recovery following dam removal. Most newly detected taxa downstream were native, though three were nonnative, indicating trade-offs between recolonization and nonnative spread.

Ohio↗

USGS2018

Landscape genetics identifies streams and drainage infrastructure as dispersal corridors for an endangered wetland bird

Anthropogenic alterations to landscape structure and composition can have significant impacts on biodiversity, potentially leading to species extinctions. Population‐level impacts of landscape change are mediated by animal behaviors, in particular dispersal behavior. Little is known about the dispersal habits of rails (Rallidae) due to their cryptic behavior and tendency to occupy densely vegetated habitats. The effects of landscape structure on the movement behavior of waterbirds in general are poorly studied due to their reputation for having high dispersal abilities. We used a landscape genetic approach to test hypotheses of landscape effects on dispersal behavior of the Hawaiian gallinule ( Gallinula galeata sandvicensis ), an endangered subspecies endemic to the Hawaiian Islands. We created a suite of alternative resistance surfaces representing biologically plausible a priori hypotheses of how gallinules might navigate the landscape matrix and ranked these surfaces by their ability to explain observed patterns in genetic distance among 12 populations on the island of O`ahu. We modeled effective distance among wetland locations on all surfaces using both cumulative least‐cost‐path and resistance‐distance approaches and evaluated relative model performance using Mantel tests, a causal modeling approach, and the mixed‐model maximum‐likelihood population‐effects framework. Across all genetic markers, simulation methods, and model comparison metrics, surfaces that treated linear water features like streams, ditches, and canals as corridors for gallinule movement outperformed all other models. This is the first landscape genetic study on the movement behavior of any waterbird species to our knowledge. Our results indicate that lotic water features, including drainage infrastructure previously thought to be of minimal habitat value, contribute to habitat connectivity in this listed subspecies.

Hawai`i↗

USGS2020

Comment on 'Kidron (2018): Biocrust research: A critical view on eight common hydrological‐related paradigms and dubious theses. Ecohydrology, e2061'

Kidron (2018) uses a straw man argument in an attempt to debunk eight putative hydrological‐related paradigms he believes to be “common among hydrologists, ecologists, or microbiologists that investigate biocrusts.” These paradigms relate to the roles of physical crusts and vascular plants in biocrust development, the major drivers (climate, porosity, hydrophobicity, and exopolysaccharides) of hydrology (infiltration and runoff), and the effect of mosses on hydrology and therefore vascular plants. We see two major problems with his arguments. First, they assume that the paradigms in question are generally accepted by biocrust researchers. Second, they are based on Kidron's (2018) world view of biocrusts, which has largely been informed by his own studies from a single, distinctly unique area of sand dunes at the Nizzana Research Site in the Negev Desert, Israel. This narrow focus and the selective use of published material disqualify his arguments. Our collective experience, based on more than 250 person years of biocrust research, and more than 700 scientific publications on biocrusts from all continents including Antarctica, indicates that, far from the straw man arguments proposed by Kidron (2018), there is no evidence to support the existence of a unifying theory that captures the global effects of biocrusts on hydrology. Our collective works demonstrate that, contrary to claims by Kidron (2018), the hydrological effects of biocrusts are strongly nuanced, varying with, but not limited to, differences in ecological context, landscape position, site condition, crust type and composition, climatic zone, soil texture and porosity, surface morphology, and spatial scale (reviewed in Weber, Büdel, & Belnap, 2016). Below, we critically analyse each of Kidron's (2018) paradigms, providing rigorous empirical evidence to show that none represent commonly held views among the biocrust research community.

Ecohydrology↗

USGS1991

Standing crops and ecology of aquatic invertebrates in agricultural drainwater ponds in California

We examined standing crops and ecology of aquatic invertebrates in agricultural drainwater evaporation ponds in California from October 1982 to March 1983 and September 1983 to March 1984. Evaporation ponds supported low diversities but high standing crops of aquatic invertebrates. A water boatman ( Trichocorixa reticulata ) and a midge ( Tanypus grodhausi ) were the most abundant invertebrates, constituting 44.9% and 51.4% of total macroinvertebrate biomass. Regression models indicated that of 6 environmental variables measured, only electrical conductivity (EC) and Julian date affected biomass and density of water boatmen. EC was the only significant correlate of midge biomass in evaporation ponds.

California↗

USGS2006

Development of allometric relations for three mangrove species in South Florida for use in the Greater Everglades Ecosystem restoration

Mathematical relations that use easily measured variables to predict difficult-to-measure variables are important to resource managers. In this paper we develop allometric relations to predict total aboveground biomass and individual components of biomass (e.g., leaves, stems, branches) for three species of mangroves for Everglades National Park, Florida, USA. The Greater Everglades Ecosystem is currently the subject of a 7.8-billion-dollar restoration program sponsored by federal, state, and local agencies. Biomass and production of mangroves are being used as a measure of restoration success. A technique for rapid determination of biomass over large areas is required. We felled 32 mangrove trees and separated each plant into leaves, stems, branches, and for Rhizophora mangle L., prop roots. Wet weights were measured in the field and subsamples returned to the laboratory for determination of wet-to-dry weight conversion factors. The diameter at breast height (DBH) and stem height were also measured. Allometric equations were developed for each species for total biomass and components of biomass. We compared our equations with those from the same, or similar, species from elsewhere in the world. Our equations explained ???93% of the variance in total dry weight using DBH. DBH is a better predictor of dry weight than is stem height and DBH is much easier to measure. Furthermore, our results indicate that there are biogeographic differences in allometric relations between regions. For a given DBH, stems of all three species have less mass in Florida than stems from elsewhere in the world. ?? Springer 2006.

Wetlands Ecology and Management↗

USGS2016

The effects of large beach debris on nesting sea turtles

A field experiment was conducted to understand the effects of large beach debris on sea turtle nesting behavior as well as the effectiveness of large debris removal for habitat restoration. Large natural and anthropogenic debris were removed from one of three sections of a sea turtle nesting beach and distributions of nests and false crawls (non-nesting crawls) in pre- (2011–2012) and post- (2013–2014) removal years in the three sections were compared. The number of nests increased 200% and the number of false crawls increased 55% in the experimental section, whereas a corresponding increase in number of nests and false crawls was not observed in the other two sections where debris removal was not conducted. The proportion of nest and false crawl abundance in all three beach sections was significantly different between pre- and post-removal years. The nesting success, the percent of successful nests in total nesting attempts (number of nests + false crawls), also increased from 24% to 38%; however the magnitude of the increase was comparably small because both the number of nests and false crawls increased, and thus the proportion of the nesting success in the experimental beach in pre- and post-removal years was not significantly different. The substantial increase in sea turtle nesting activities after the removal of large debris indicates that large debris may have an adverse impact on sea turtle nesting behavior. Removal of large debris could be an effective restoration strategy to improve sea turtle nesting.

Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology↗

USGS2018

Overview of the oxygen isotope systematics of land snails from North America

Continental paleoclimate proxies with near-global coverage are rare. Land snail δ 18 O is one of the few proxies abundant in Quaternary sediments ranging from the tropics to the high Arctic tundra. However, its application in paleoclimatology remains difficult, attributable in part to limitations in published calibration studies. Here we present shell δ 18 O of modern small (<10 mm) snails across North America, from Florida (30°N) to Manitoba (58°N), to examine the main climatic controls on shell δ 18 O at a coarse scale. This transect is augmented by published δ 18 O values, which expand our coverage from Jamaica (18°N) to Alaska (64°N). Results indicate that shell δ 18 O primarily tracks the average annual precipitation δ 18 O. Shell δ 18 O increases 0.5–0.7‰ for every 1‰ increase in precipitation δ 18 O, and 0.3–0.7‰ for every 1°C increase in temperature. These relationships hold true when all taxa are included regardless of body size (ranging from ~1.6 to ~58 mm), ecology (herbivores, omnivores, and carnivores), or behavior (variable seasonal active periods and mobility habits). Future isotopic investigations should include calibration studies in tropical and high-latitude settings, arid environments, and along altitudinal gradients to test if the near linear relationship between shell and meteoric precipitation δ 18 O observed on a continental scale remains significant.

Quaternary Research↗

USGS2008

Biomorphodynamics: Physical-biological feedbacks that shape landscapes

Plants and animals affect morphological evolution in many environments. The term "ecogeomorphology" describes studies that address such effects. In this opinion article we use the term "biomorphodynamics" to characterize a subset of ecogeomorphologic studies: those that investigate not only the effects of organisms on physical processes and morphology but also how the biological processes depend on morphology and physical forcing. The two-way coupling precipitates feedbacks, leading to interesting modes of behavior, much like the coupling between flow/sediment transport and morphology leads to rich morphodynamic behaviors. Select examples illustrate how even the basic aspects of some systems cannot be understood without considering biomorphodynamic coupling. Prominent examples include the dynamic interactions between vegetation and flow/sediment transport that can determine river channel patterns and the multifaceted biomorphodynamic feedbacks shaping tidal marshes and channel networks. These examples suggest that the effects of morphology and physical processes on biology tend to operate over the timescale of the evolution of the morphological pattern. Thus, in field studies, which represent a snapshot in the pattern evolution, these effects are often not as obvious as the effects of biology on physical processes. However, numerical modeling indicates that the influences on biology from physical processes can play a key role in shaping landscapes and that even local and temporary vegetation disturbances can steer large-scale, long-term landscape evolution. The prevalence of biomorphodynamic research is burgeoning in recent years, driven by societal need and a confluence of complex systems-inspired modeling approaches in ecology and geomorphology. To make fundamental progress in understanding the dynamics of many landscapes, our community needs to increasingly learn to look for two-way, biomorphodynamic feedbacks and to collect new types of data to support the modeling of such emergent interactions. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2002

Molecular analysis of a 11 700-year-old rodent midden from the Atacama Desert, Chile

DNA was extracted from an 11 700-year-old rodent midden from the Atacama Desert, Chile and the chloroplast and animal mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) gene sequences were analysed to investigate the floral environment surrounding the midden, and the identity of the midden agent. The plant sequences, together with the macroscopic identifications, suggest the presence of 13 plant families and three orders that no longer exist today at the midden locality, and thus point to a much more diverse and humid climate 11 700 years ago. The mtDNA sequences suggest the presence of at least four different vertebrates, which have been putatively identified as a camelid (vicuna), two rodents (Phyllotis and Abrocoma), and a cardinal bird (Passeriformes). To identify the midden agent, DNA was extracted from pooled faecal pellets, three small overlapping fragments of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene were amplified and multiple clones were sequenced. These results were analysed along with complete cytochrome b sequences for several modern Phyllotis species to place the midden sequence phylogenetically. The results identified the midden agent as belonging to an ancestral P. limatus. Today, P. limatus is not found at the midden locality but it can be found 100 km to the north, indicating at least a small range shift. The more extensive sampling of modern Phyllotis reinforces the suggestion that P. limatus is recently derived from a peripheral isolate.

Molecular Ecology↗

USGS2024

The potential for species distribution models to distinguish source populations from sinks

1. While species distribution models (SDM) are frequently used to predict species occurrences to help inform conservation management, there is limited evidence evaluating whether habitat suitability can reliably predict intrinsic growth rates or distinguish source from sink populations. Filling this knowledge gap is critical for conservation science, as applications of SDMs for management purposes ultimately depend on these typically unobserved population or metapopulation dynamics. 2. Using regression, we associate previously published population level estimates of intrinsic growth and abundance derived from a Bayesian analysis of mark-recapture data for 17 bird species found in the contiguous United States with SDM habitat suitability estimates fitted here to opportunistic data for these same species. We then use AUC to measure how well SDMs can distinguish populations categorized as sources and sinks, depending on their intrinsic growth rates estimated from the mark-recapture data. We built SDMs using two different approaches, boosted regression trees (BRT) and Generalized Linear Models (GLM), and compared their predictive performance. Each SDM was built with presence points obtained from eBird and 10 environmental variables previously selected to model intrinsic growth rates and abundance for these species. 3. We show that SDMs built with opportunistic data are poor predictors of species demography in general; both BRT and GLM explained very little spatial variation of intrinsic growth rate and population abundance (median R2 across 17 species was close to 0.1 for both SDM methods). SDMs do, however, estimate higher suitability for source populations as compared to sinks. Out of 13 species which had both source and sink populations, both BRT and GLM had AUC values greater than 0.7 for 7 species when discriminating between sources and sinks. 4. Habitat suitability have the potential to be a useful measure to indicate a population’s ability to sustain itself as a source population, however more research on a diverse set of taxa is essential to fully explore this potential. This interpretation of habitat suitability can be particularly useful for conservation practice, and identification of explicit cases of when and how SDMs fail to match population demography can be informative for advancing ecological theory.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗