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At least 1,351 records · Page 75Linked to original sources
USGS2018

Wildland–urban interface residents’ relationships with wildfire: Variation within and across communities

Social science offers rich descriptions of relationships between wildland–urban interface residents and wildfire, but syntheses across different contexts might gloss over important differences. We investigate the potential extent of such differences using data collected consistently in sixty-eight Colorado communities and hierarchical modeling. We find substantial variation across responses for all considered measures, much of which occurs at the community-level. Our results show that many aspects of relationships with wildfire meaningfully differ both within and across communities. Our analysis suggests that some wildfire social science results will be relatively consistent across communities, whereas others will not, and this study contributes evidence to broader efforts for understanding which is which. As such, it provides important guidance for transferring the lessons of wildfire social science studies across contexts, and for practitioners who seek to understand the breadth of viewpoints within the communities with which they work.

Colorado↗
USGS2005

The no-project alternative analysis: An early product of the Tahoe Decision Support System

We report on the development of a No-project alternative analysis (NPAA) or “business as usual” scenario with respect to a 20-year projection of 21 indicators of environmental and socioeconomic conditions in the Lake Tahoe Basin for the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency (TRPA). Our effort was inspired by earlier work that investigated the tradeoffs between an environmental and an economic objective. The NPAA study has implications for a longer term goal of building a Tahoe Decision Support System (TDSS) to assist the TRPA and other Basin agencies in assessing the outcomes of management strategies. The NPAA assumes no major deviations from current management practices or from recent environmental or societal trends and planned Environmental Improvement Program (EIP) projects. Quantitative “scenario generation” tools were constructed to simulate site-specific land uses, various population categories, and associated vehicle miles traveled. Projections of each indicator’s attainment status were made by building visual conceptual models of the relevant natural and social processes, extrapolating trends, and using available models, research, and expert opinion. We present results of the NPAA, projected indicator status, key factors affecting the indicators, indicator functionality, and knowledge gaps. One important result is that current management practices may slow the loss or degradation of environmental qualities but not halt or reverse it. Our analysis also predicts an increase in recreation and commuting into and within the basin, primarily in private vehicles. Private vehicles, which are a critical mechanism by which the Basin population affects the surrounding environment, are a key determinant of air-quality indicators, a source of particulate matter affecting Secchi depth, a source of noise, and a factor in recreational and scenic quality, largely owing to congestion. Key uncertainties in the NPAA include climate change, EIP project effectiveness, and external population, economic activity, and air pollution.

Lake Tahoe Basin↗
USGS2010

Quantifying canal leakage rates using a mass-balance approach and heat-based hydraulic conductivity estimates in selected irrigation canals, western Nebraska, 2007 through 2009

The water supply in areas of the North Platte River Basin in the Nebraska Panhandle has been designated as fully appropriated or overappropriated by the Nebraska Department of Natural Resources (NDNR). Enacted legislation (Legislative Bill 962) requires the North Platte Natural Resources District (NPNRD) and the NDNR to develop an Integrated Management Plan (IMP) to balance groundwater and surface-water supply and demand in the NPNRD. A clear understanding of the groundwater and surface-water systems is critical for the development of a successful IMP. The primary source of groundwater recharge in parts of the NPNRD is from irrigation canal leakage. Because canal leakage constitutes a large part of the hydrologic budget, spatially distributing canal leakage to the groundwater system is important to any management strategy. Surface geophysical data collected along selected reaches of irrigation canals has allowed for the spatial distribution of leakage on a relative basis; however, the actual magnitude of leakage remains poorly defined. To address this need, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the NPNRD, established streamflow-gaging stations at upstream and downstream ends from two selected canal reaches to allow a mass-balance approach to be used to calculate daily leakage rates. Water-level and sediment temperature data were collected and simulated at three temperature monitoring sites to allow the use of heat as a tracer to estimate the hydraulic conductivity of canal bed sediment. Canal-leakage rates were estimated by applying Darcy's Law to modeled vertical hydraulic conductivity and either the estimated or measured hydraulic gradient. This approach will improve the understanding of the spatial and temporal variability of canal leakage in varying geologic settings identified in capacitively coupled resistivity surveys. The high-leakage potential study reach of the Tri-State Canal had two streamflow-gaging stations and two temperature monitoring sites along its length. Calculated leakage rates from the mass-balance approach varied from year to year and were generally dependent on local climatic conditions, and the timing and magnitude of the initial seasonal diversion into the Tri-State Canal. Leakage rates ranged from 0.98 meter per day (m/d) on June 22, 2007, to about to 0 m/d during July 2009. Drier conditions generally resulted in higher leakage rates because of reduced flow from Spottedtail Creek, lower groundwater levels near Spottedtail Creek, and no unmeasured flow entering the reach. Of the three years studied (2007-09), 2007 was the driest, and therefore had the highest canal leakage rates. The moderately low leakage potential study reach of Interstate Canal had two streamflow-gaging stations and one temperature monitoring site along its length. Excluding the leakage calculations from early May 2007, leakage rates ranged from 0.08 to 0.7 m/d. Less variability in leakage from year to year indicates that climatic conditions may have less of an effect for Interstate Canal compared to Tri-State Canal. This may be because Interstate Canal was cut into the northern edge of the North Platte alluvial valley and consequently the canal bed is well above the local groundwater table resulting in a constant (1 meter per meter [m/m]) hydraulic gradient. Interstate Canal also does not receive any captured flow that can vary substantially year to year. Two temperature monitoring sites were installed within the high-leakage potential reach of Tri-State Canal. Site TCTEMP1 was established in 2007 where the water table was well below the canal bed surface. The vertical hydraulic conductivity of the poorly sorted sand and gravel beneath site TCTEMP1 was estimated using a calibrated one-dimensional VS2DH model. Using a trial-and-error approach, the best-fit vertical hydraulic conductivity for the site TCTEMP1 model domain was 1.1 m/d. Site TCTEMP2 was established at the mouth of Spottedtail Creek where a shallow

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS1989

Effects of limestone quarrying and cement-plant operations on runoff and sediment yields in the Upper Permanente Creek basin, Santa Clara County, California

High sediment loads below headwater areas of the Permanente Creek drainage basin, Santa Clara County, California, have caused flood-control problems in downstream lowland areas. Measured sediment yields in Permanente Creek, which drains areas affected by limestone quarrying and cement-plant operations, were 14 times greater than yields from the West Fork Permanente Creek, which primarily drains parkland. Part of this large disparity in yields is the result of higher runoff/unit of drainage area in the Permanente Creek Basin. Results of rainfall-runoff modeling indicate that the tendency for higher runoff from Permanente Creek results from natural differences in basin physiography. Runoff during periods of high streamflow (when most sediment is transported) is dominated by subsurface flow, which is not affected by human activities. Although artificial features created by human activities seem to have had only minor effects on runoff, they apparently have had major effects on sediment availability. Artificial features accounted for 273 acres (89%) of the 307 acres of active erosional landforms mapped in 1984. Increased availability of sediment in the Permanente Creek basin appears to be indicated by elevated intercepts of sediment-transport curves. A comparison of sediment-transport curves for the West Fork Permanente Creek with similar curves for the Permanente Creek basin under natural conditions suggests that the sediment yield from Permanente Creek is about 3.5 times higher than it would be under natural basin conditions. The increased yield apparently is due to an increase in sediment availability rather than an increase in runoff. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2016

How will predicted land-use change affect waterfowl spring stopover ecology? Inferences from an individual-based model

Habitat loss, habitat fragmentation, overexploitation and climate change pose familiar and new challenges to conserving natural populations throughout the world. One approach conservation planners may use to evaluate the effects of these challenges on wildlife populations is scenario planning. We developed an individual-based model to evaluate the effects of future land use and land cover changes on spring-migrating dabbling ducks in North America. We assessed the effects of three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) on dabbling duck stopover duration, movement distances and mortality. We specifically focused on migration stopover duration because previous research has demonstrated that individuals arriving earlier on the nesting grounds exhibit increased reproductive fitness. Compared to present conditions, all three scenarios increased stopover duration and movement distances of agent ducks. Although all three scenarios presented migrating ducks with increased amounts of wetland habitat, scenarios also contained substantially less cropland, which decreased overall carrying capacity of the study area. Synthesis and applications . Land-use change may increase waterfowl spring migration stopover duration in the midcontinent region of North America due to reduced landscape energetic carrying capacity. Climate change will alter spatial patterns of crop distributions with corn and rice production areas shifting to different regions. Thus, conservation planners will have to address population-level energetic implications of shifting agricultural food resources and increased uncertainty in yearly precipitation patterns within the next 50 years.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2017

Balancing habitat delivery for breeding marsh birds and nonbreeding waterfowl: An integrated waterbird management and monitoring approach at Clarence Cannon National Wildlife Refuge, Missouri

The Clarence Cannon National Wildlife Refuge (CCNWR) in the Mississippi River flood plain of eastern Missouri provides high quality emergent marsh and moist-soil habitat benefitting both nesting marsh birds and migrating waterfowl. Staff of CCNWR manipulate water levels and vegetation in the 17 units of the CCNWR to provide conditions favorable to these two important guilds. Although both guilds include focal species at multiple planning levels and complement objectives to provide a diversity of wetland community types and water regimes, additional decision support is needed for choosing how much emergent marsh and moist-soil habitat should be provided through annual management actions. To develop decision guidance for balanced delivery of high-energy waterfowl habitat and breeding marsh bird habitat, two measureable management objectives were identified: nonbreeding Anas Linnaeus (dabbling duck) use-days and Rallus elegans (king rail) occupancy of managed units. Three different composite management actions were identified to achieve these objectives. Each composite management action is a unique combination of growing season water regime and soil disturbance. The three composite management actions are intense moist-soil management (moist-soil), intermediate moist-soil (intermediate), and perennial management, which idles soils disturbance (perennial). The two management objectives and three management options were used in a multi-criteria decision analysis to indicate resource allocations and inform annual decision making. Outcomes of the composite management actions were predicted in two ways and multi-criteria decision analysis was used with each set of predictions. First, outcomes were predicted using expert-elicitation techniques and a panel of subject matter experts. Second, empirical data from the Integrated Waterbird Management and Monitoring Initiative collected between 2010 and 2013 were used; where data were lacking, expert judgment was used. Also, a Bayesian decision model was developed that can be updated with monitoring data in an adaptive management framework. Optimal resource allocations were identified in the form of portfolios of composite management actions for the 17 units in the framework. A constrained optimization (linear programming) was used to maximize an objective function that was based on the sum of dabbling duck and king rail utility. The constraints, which included management costs and a minimum energetic carrying capacity (total moist-soil acres), were applied to balance habitat delivery for dabbling ducks and king rails. Also, the framework was constrained in some cases to apply certain management actions of interest to certain management units; these constraints allowed for a variety of hypothetical Habitat Management Plans, including one based on output from a hydrogeomorphic study of the refuge. The decision analysis thus created numerous refuge-wide scenarios, each representing a unique mix of options (one for each of 17 units) and associated benefits (i.e., outcomes with respect to two management objectives). Prepared in collaboration with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the decision framework presented here is designed as a decision-aiding tool for CCNWR managers who ultimately make difficult decisions each year with multiple objectives, multiple management units, and the complexity of natural systems. The framework also provides a way to document hypotheses about how the managed system functions. Furthermore, the framework identifies specific monitoring needs and illustrates precisely how monitoring data will be used for decision-aiding and adaptive management.

Missouri↗
USGS2011

Using multi-source satellite data for lake level modelling in ungauged basins: A case study for Lake Turkana, East Africa

Managing limited surface water resources is a great challenge in areas where ground-based data are either limited or unavailable. Direct or indirect measurements of surface water resources through remote sensing offer several advantages of monitoring in ungauged basins. A physical based hydrologic technique to monitor lake water levels in ungauged basins using multi-source satellite data such as satellite-based rainfall estimates, modelled runoff, evapotranspiration, a digital elevation model, and other data is presented. This approach is applied to model Lake Turkana water levels from 1998 to 2009. Modelling results showed that the model can reasonably capture all the patterns and seasonal variations of the lake water level fluctuations. A composite lake level product of TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, and ENVISAT satellite altimetry data is used for model calibration (1998-2000) and model validation (2001-2009). Validation results showed that model-based lake levels are in good agreement with observed satellite altimetry data. Compared to satellite altimetry data, the Pearson's correlation coefficient was found to be 0.81 during the validation period. The model efficiency estimated using NSCE is found to be 0.93, 0.55 and 0.66 for calibration, validation and combined periods, respectively. Further, the model-based estimates showed a root mean square error of 0.62 m and mean absolute error of 0.46 m with a positive mean bias error of 0.36 m for the validation period (2001-2009). These error estimates were found to be less than 15 % of the natural variability of the lake, thus giving high confidence on the modelled lake level estimates. The approach presented in this paper can be used to (a) simulate patterns of lake water level variations in data scarce regions, (b) operationally monitor lake water levels in ungauged basins, (c) derive historical lake level information using satellite rainfall and evapotranspiration data, and (d) augment the information provided by the satellite altimetry systems on changes in lake water levels. ?? Author(s) 2011.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions↗
USGS2024

Transdisciplinary research supports the sustainability of barrier island systems threatened by climate change

The management of developed barrier islands is often piece-meal and reactionary despite the complex, dynamic nature of these systems, and sustainable practices will become increasingly difficult due to heightened pressures of climate change. Adaptation actions, including nature-based solutions, need to be thoroughly evaluated prior to implementation to understand system-wide impacts and avoid maladaptation. Anarde et al. (2024a), ( https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ef003672 ), Anarde et al. (2024b), ( https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ef004200 ) is the latest important contribution in a growing body of transdisciplinary research that more robustly evaluates the complex physical process-and-response relationship of barrier systems via sophisticated numerical modeling approaches that also interface with socioeconomic models to inform coastal management actions in response to mitigating coastal risk. This new research indicates the importance of coordinated system-scale barrier island management, as strategies to reduce coastal hazard risk in one location will directly affect adjacent communities. Further, this work demonstrates that reducing barrier management interventions may actually promote barrier recovery and sustainability in the face of sea level rise. In addition, recent advances in the analysis and application of remotely sensed data from satellites and oblique aerial photography provide scientists an unprecedented opportunity to track coastal evolution over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales at minimal cost. As sea level rise and changing storm patterns challenge the sustainable management of barrier island systems, integrating these advanced, transdisciplinary tools will enable scientists and coastal practitioners to more thoroughly evaluate coastal adaptation options, efficiently invest limited resources to mitigate coastal hazard risk for communities, support healthy ecosystems, and reduce system-wide impacts.

Earth's Future↗
USGS2024

Deterministic, dynamic model forecasts of storm-driven coastal erosion

The U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts are vulnerable to storms, which can cause significant erosion of beaches and dunes that protect coastal communities. Real-time forecasts of storm-driven erosion are useful for decision support, but they are limited due to demands for computational resources and uncertainties in dynamic coastal systems and storm forcings. Current methods for coastal change forecasts are based on empirical calculations for wave run-up and conceptual models for erosion, which do not represent sediment transport and morphological change during the storm. However, with continued advancements in high-resolution geospatial data and computational efficiencies, there is an opportunity to apply morphodynamic models for forecasts of beach and dune erosion as a storm approaches the coast. In this study, we implement a forecast system based on a deterministic, dynamic model. The morphodynamic model is initialized with digital elevation models of the most up-to-date conditions and forced with hydrodynamics from wave and circulation model forecasts, and its predictions are categorized based on impact to the primary dune, defined in this study as the first ridge of sand landward of the beach. Results are compared spatially to the observed post-storm topography using changes to dune crest elevations and volumes, and temporally to the predicted total water level at the forecasted moment of dune impact.

Florida, Georgia, South Carolina↗
USGS2020

Spatial conservation planning under uncertainty using modern portfolio theory and nash bargaining solution

In recent years, researchers from interdisciplinary teams involving ecologists, economists and operations re- searchers collaborated to provide decision support tools to address the challenges of preserving biodiversity by optimizing the design of reserves. The goal of this paper is to further advance this area of research and provide new solutions to solve complex Spatial Conservation Planning (SCP) problems under uncertainty that consider risk preferences of decision makers. Our approach employs modern portfolio theory to address uncertainties in SCP problems, and involves two conflicting objectives: maximizing return and minimizing risk. We apply concepts from game theory such as the Nash bargaining solution to directly compute a desirable Pareto-optimal solution for the proposed bi-objective optimization formulation in natural resource management problems. We demonstrate with numerical examples that by directly computing a Nash bar- gaining solution, a Binary Quadratically Constrained Quadratic Program (BQCQP) can be solved. We show that our approach (implementable with commercial solvers such as CPLEX) can effectively solve the proposed BQCQP for much larger problems than previous approaches published in the ecological literature. Optimal solutions for problems with less than 400 parcels can be computed within a minute. Near optimal solutions (within at most 0.2% gap from an optimal solution) for high-dimensional problems involving up to 800 parcels can be computed within 8 hours on a standard computer. We have presented a new approach to solve SCP optimization problems while considering uncertainty and risk tolerance of decision makers. Our new approach expands considerably the applicability of such SCP optimization methods to address real conservation problems.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2016

A moving target—incorporating knowledge of the spatial ecology of fish into the assessment and management of freshwater fish populations

Freshwater fish move vertically and horizontally through the aquatic landscape for a variety of reasons, such as to find and exploit patchy resources or to locate essential habitats (e.g., for spawning). Inherent challenges exist with the assessment of fish populations because they are moving targets. We submit that quantifying and describing the spatial ecology of fish and their habitat is an important component of freshwater fishery assessment and management. With a growing number of tools available for studying the spatial ecology of fishes (e.g., telemetry, population genetics, hydroacoustics, otolith microchemistry, stable isotope analysis), new knowledge can now be generated and incorporated into biological assessment and fishery management. For example, knowing when, where, and how to deploy assessment gears is essential to inform, refine, or calibrate assessment protocols. Such information is also useful for quantifying or avoiding bycatch of imperiled species. Knowledge of habitat connectivity and usage can identify critically important migration corridors and habitats and can be used to improve our understanding of variables that influence spatial structuring of fish populations. Similarly, demographic processes are partly driven by the behavior of fish and mediated by environmental drivers. Information on these processes is critical to the development and application of realistic population dynamics models. Collectively, biological assessment, when informed by knowledge of spatial ecology, can provide managers with the ability to understand how and when fish and their habitats may be exposed to different threats. Naturally, this knowledge helps to better evaluate or develop strategies to protect the long-term viability of fishery production. Failure to understand the spatial ecology of fishes and to incorporate spatiotemporal data can bias population assessments and forecasts and potentially lead to ineffective or counterproductive management actions.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗
USGS2022

Comprehensive pressure core analysis for hydrate-bearing sediments from Gulf of Mexico Green Canyon Block 955, including assessments of geomechanical viscous behavior and nuclear magnetic resonance permeability

Quantifying the petrophysical and geomechanical properties of gas hydrate reservoirs is essential for understanding the natural hydrate system and predicting gas production behavior for future resource development. Pressure-core analysis tools were used to characterize methane hydrate–bearing sediments recovered from the Gulf of Mexico Green Canyon Block 955, under an international collaboration with The University of Texas and the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology. Pressure-core samples were successfully transferred from Austin, Texas to Sapporo, Japan. Index property measurements (grain size, grain density, hydration number, gas composition, thermal conductivity), along with triaxial compression, consolidation, and permeability tests with a nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) analyzer were conducted. Compression tests at different strain rates confirmed a strain rate dependence for hydrate-bearing sediment, and an equation for predicting strength as a function of hydrate saturation and strain rate is proposed. Compression and swelling indices were obtained from high-effective stress consolidation tests. Furthermore, secondary compression coefficients for hydrate-bearing sediments were obtained, suggesting that hydrate exhibits creeping behavior on timescales of minutes to hours. A relatively high initial permeability of a few millidarcys was confirmed. In addition, the first NMR signal measurement was performed on a hydrate-bearing pressure core to acquire the NMR transverse or spin-spin ( T 2 ) distribution. Results confirm that the Schlumberger Doll Research model and Timur-Coates model predictions underestimate permeability measured directly via fluid flow. Permeability estimated using specific surface values derived from NMR T 2 distributions is in good agreement with flow test results. Finally, an extended Timur-Coates model was proposed and predicts intrinsic permeability with high accuracy.

Texas↗
USGS2010

Simulation of solute transport in a mountain pool-and-riffle stream with a kinetic mass transfer model for sorption

In natural channels there are often long periods of low flow during which solutes have repeated opportunity for contact with relatively immobile bed materials. Such conditions can exist in very small pool-and-riffle mountain streams. If a solute can sorb onto bed materials, then both hydrodynamic and chemical processes control solute transport. A simulation of these processes is presented for a carefully controlled and intensively monitored strontium injection experiment. The numerical model couples nonreactive, transient storage with a kinetic mass transport model for sorption. The results are compared to both in-stream and on-sediment strontium measurements. In mountain streams the stream hydrology is complex and is governed by a wide variety of time and distance scales. The present simulations assist in interpreting the relative roles of hydrologic and sorptive kinetic processes, and indicate the practical limits of our process and parameter knowledge. The simulations are relatively insensitive to the details of the kinetic mechanisms and to the spatial variability of the stream parameters.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS2016

Increasing aeolian dust deposition to snowpacks in the Rocky Mountains inferred from snowpack, wet deposition, and aerosol chemistry

Mountain snowpacks are a vital natural resource for ∼1.5 billion people in the northern Hemisphere, helping to meet human and ecological demand for water in excess of that provided by summer rain. Springtime warming and aeolian dust deposition accelerate snowmelt, increasing the risk of water shortages during late summer, when demand is greatest. While climate networks provide data that can be used to evaluate the effect of warming on snowpack resources, there are no established regional networks for monitoring aeolian dust deposition to snow. In this study, we test the hypothesis that chemistry of snow, wet deposition, and aerosols can be used as a surrogate for dust deposition to snow. We then analyze spatial patterns and temporal trends in inferred springtime dust deposition to snow across the Rocky Mountains, USA, for 1993–2014. Geochemical evidence, including strong correlations (r 2 ≥ 0.94) between Ca 2+ , alkalinity, and dust concentrations in snow deposited during dust events, indicate that carbonate minerals in dust impart a strong chemical signature that can be used to track dust deposition to snow. Spatial patterns in chemistry of snow, wet deposition, and aerosols indicate that dust deposition increases from north to south in the Rocky Mountains, and temporal trends indicate that winter/spring dust deposition increased by 81% in the southern Rockies during 1993–2014. Using a multivariate modeling approach, we determined that increases in dust deposition and decreases in springtime snowfall combined to accelerate snowmelt timing in the southern Rockies by approximately 7–18 days between 1993 and 2014. Previous studies have shown that aeolian dust emissions may have doubled globally during the 20th century, possibly due to drought and land-use change. Climate projections for increased aridity in the southwestern U.S., northern Africa, and other mid-latitude regions of the northern Hemisphere suggest that aeolian dust emissions may continue to increase, compounding the risk that climate warming poses to snowpack water resources in arid/semi-arid regions of the world.

Atmospheric Environment↗
USGS2002

Investigation of the geology and hydrology of the upper and middle Verde River watershed of central Arizona: A project of the Arizona Rural Watershed Initiative

The upper and middle Verde River watershed in west-central Arizona is an area rich in natural beauty and cultural history and is an increasingly popular destination for tourists, recreationists, and permanent residents seeking its temperate climate. The diverse terrain of the region includes broad desert valleys, upland plains, forested mountain ranges, narrow canyons, and riparian areas along perennial stream reaches. The area is predominantly in Yavapai County, which in 1999 was the fastest-growing rural county in the United States (Woods and Poole Economics, Inc., 1999); by 2050, the population is projected to more than double. Such growth will increase demands on water resources. The domestic, industrial, and recreational interests of the population will need to be balanced against protection of riparian, woodland, and other natural areas and their associated wildlife and aquatic habitats. Sound management decisions will be required that are based on an understanding of the interactions between local and regional aquifers, surface-water bodies, and recharge and discharge areas. This understanding must include the influence of climate, geology, topography, and cultural development on those components of the hydrologic system. In 1999, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR), initiated a regional investigation of the hydrogeology of the upper and middle Verde River watershed. The project is part of the Rural Watershed Initiative (RWI), a program established by the State of Arizona and managed by the ADWR that addresses water supply issues in rural areas while encouraging participation from stakeholder groups in affected communities. The USGS is performing similar RWI investigations on the Colorado Plateau to the north and in the Mogollon Highlands to the east of the Verde River study area (Parker and Flynn, 2000). The objectives of the RWI investigations are to develop: (1) a single database containing all hydrogeologic data available for the combined areas, (2) an understanding of the geologic units and structures in each area with a focus on how geology influences the storage and movement of ground water, (3) a conceptual model that describes where and how much water enters, flows through, and exits the hydrogeologic system, and (4) a numerical ground-water flow model that can be used to improve understanding of the hydrogeologic system and to test the effects of various scenarios of water-resources development. In 2001, Yavapai County became an additional cooperator in the upper and middle Verde River RWI investigation.

Arizona↗
USGS2024

RE-ARMing salt marshes: A resilience-experimentalist approach to prescribed fire and bird conservation in high marshes of the Gulf of Mexico

Uncertainty, complexity, and dynamic changes present challenges for conservation and natural resource management. Evidence-based approaches grounded in reliable information and rigorous analysis can enhance the navigation of the uncertainties and trade-offs inherent in conservation problems. This study highlights the importance of collaborative efforts and evidence-based decision-making, specifically implementing the Resilience-Experimentalist school of adaptive management (RE-ARM), which emphasizes stakeholder involvement, shared understanding, and experimentation. Our goal was to develop an adaptive management framework to reduce the uncertainty around the use of prescribed fire to manage the habitat for eastern black rails ( Laterallus jamaicensis jamaicensis ) and mottled ducks ( Anas fulvigula ) in saltmarshes of the Gulf of Mexico. Supported by discussions at a series of workshops, we used a value of information analysis to select a fire management hypothesis to test, developed an influence diagram to represent the system under fire management, used the influence diagram to develop a Bayesian decision network (BDN), and conducted a power analysis to guide management experiments and monitoring. Value of information analysis identified fire return interval as the critical uncertainty. Our BDN provided valuable insight into how managers believe prescribed fire influences vegetation characteristics and how vegetation influences both eastern black rail occupancy and mottled duck abundance. The results of the power analysis indicated that a standard occupancy modeling framework was more useful to compare 2- and 5-year fire return intervals for black rails than two alternative designs (removal and conditional). Our BDN can be used to predict the probability of achieving the desirable vegetative response to increase the occupancy probability of black rails and abundance of mottled ducks, and monitoring data can be used to update the BDN (learn) and improve best management practices for prescribed burns (adapt). Linking the value of information, BDNs, and power analysis enhances our understanding of the system, improves management decision-making, and builds trust among scientists, interested parties, and decision-makers. This approach lays the groundwork for knowledge co-production and adaptive management.

Frontiers in Conservation Science↗
USGS2014

Assessing the risk persistent drought using climate model simulations and paleoclimate data

Projected changes in global rainfall patterns will likely alter water supplies and ecosystems in semiarid regions during the coming century. Instrumental and paleoclimate data indicate that natural hydroclimate fluctuations tend to be more energetic at low (multidecadal to multicentury) than at high (interannual) frequencies. State-of-the-art global climate models do not capture this characteristic of hydroclimate variability, suggesting that the models underestimate the risk of future persistent droughts. Methods are developed here for assessing the risk of such events in the coming century using climate model projections as well as observational (paleoclimate) information. Where instrumental and paleoclimate data are reliable, these methods may provide a more complete view of prolonged drought risk. In the U.S. Southwest, for instance, state-of-the-art climate model projections suggest the risk of a decade-scale megadrought in the coming century is less than 50%; the analysis herein suggests that the risk is at least 80%, and may be higher than 90% in certain areas. The likelihood of longer-lived events (>35 yr) is between 20% and 50%, and the risk of an unprecedented 50-yr megadrought is nonnegligible under the most severe warming scenario (5%–10%). These findings are important to consider as adaptation and mitigation strategies are developed to cope with regional impacts of climate change, where population growth is high and multidecadal megadrought—worse than anything seen during the last 2000 years—would pose unprecedented challenges to water resources in the region.

Journal of Climate↗
USGS1992

Sampling design for spatially distributed hydrogeologic and environmental processes

A methodology for the design of sampling networks over space is proposed. The methodology is based on spatial random field representations of nonhomogeneous natural processes, and on optimal spatial estimation techniques. One of the most important results of random field theory for physical sciences is its rationalization of correlations in spatial variability of natural processes. This correlation is extremely important both for interpreting spatially distributed observations and for predictive performance. The extent of site sampling and the types of data to be collected will depend on the relationship of subsurface variability to predictive uncertainty. While hypothesis formulation and initial identification of spatial variability characteristics are based on scientific understanding (such as knowledge of the physics of the underlying phenomena, geological interpretations, intuition and experience), the support offered by field data is statistically modelled. This model is not limited by the geometric nature of sampling and covers a wide range in subsurface uncertainties. A factorization scheme of the sampling error variance is derived, which possesses certain atttactive properties allowing significant savings in computations. By means of this scheme, a practical sampling design procedure providing suitable indices of the sampling error variance is established. These indices can be used by way of multiobjective decision criteria to obtain the best sampling strategy. Neither the actual implementation of the in-situ sampling nor the solution of the large spatial estimation systems of equations are necessary. The required values of the accuracy parameters involved in the network design are derived using reference charts (readily available for various combinations of data configurations and spatial variability parameters) and certain simple yet accurate analytical formulas. Insight is gained by applying the proposed sampling procedure to realistic examples related to sampling problems in two dimensions.

Advances in Water Resources↗