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At least 1,351 records · Page 75Linked to original sources

Genetic consequences of trumpeter swan (Cygnus buccinator) reintroductions

Relocation programs are often initiated to restore threatened species to previously occupied portions of their range. A primary challenge of restoration efforts is to translocate individuals in a way that prevents loss of genetic diversity and decreases differentiation relative to source populations-a challenge that becomes increasingly difficult when remnant populations of the species are already genetically depauperate. Trumpeter swans were previously extirpated in the entire eastern half of their range. Physical translocations of birds over the last 70 years have restored the species to portions of its historical range. Despite the long history of management, there has been little monitoring of the genetic outcomes of these restoration attempts. We assessed the consequences of this reintroduction program by comparing patterns of genetic variation at 17 microsatellite loci across four restoration flocks (three wild-released, one captive) and their source populations. We found that a wild-released population established from a single source displayed a trend toward reduced genetic diversity relative to and significant genetic differentiation from its source population, though small founder population effects may also explain this pattern. Wild-released flocks restored from multiple populations maintained source levels of genetic variation and lacked significant differentiation from at least one of their sources. Further, the flock originating from a single source revealed significantly lower levels of genetic variation than those established from multiple sources. The distribution of genetic variation in the captive flock was similar to its source. While the case of trumpeter swans provides evidence that restorations from multiple versus single source populations may better preserve natural levels of genetic diversity, more studies are needed to understand the general applicability of this management strategy. ?? 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V. (outside the USA).

Conservation Genetics↗

Strontium isotope geochemistry of groundwaters and streams affected by agriculture, Locust Grove, MD

The effects of agriculture on the isotope geochemistry of Sr were investigated in two small watersheds in the Atlantic coastal plain of Maryland. Stratified shallow oxic groundwaters in both watersheds contained a retrievable record of increasing recharge rates of chemicals including NO 3 − , Cl, Mg, Ca and Sr that were correlated with increasing fertilizer use between about 1940 and 1990. The component of Sr associated with recent agricultural recharge was relatively radiogenic ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr=0.715) and it was overwhelming with respect to Sr acquired naturally by water–rock interactions in the oxidized, non-calcareous portion of the saturated zone. Agricultural groundwaters that penetrated relatively unoxidized calcareous glauconitic sediments at depth acquired an additional component of Sr from dissolution of early Tertiary marine CaCO 3 ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr=0.708) while undergoing O 2 reduction and denitrification. Ground-water discharge contained mixtures of waters of various ages and redox states. Two streams draining the area are considered to have higher 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios and NO 3 − concentrations than they would in the absence of agriculture; however, the streams have consistently different 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios and NO 3 − concentrations because the average depth to calcareous reducing (denitrifying) sediments in the local groundwater flow system was different in the two watersheds. The results of this study indicate that agriculture can alter significantly the isotope geochemistry of Sr in aquifers and streams and that the effects could vary depending on the types, sources and amounts of fertilizers added, the history of fertilizer use and groundwater residence times.

Maryland↗

Lunar remote sensing and measurements

Remote sensing and measurements of the Moon from Apollo orbiting spacecraft and Earth form a basis for extrapolation of Apollo surface data to regions of the Moon where manned and unmanned spacecraft have not been and may be used to discover target regions for future lunar exploration which will produce the highest scientific yields. Orbital remote sensing and measurements discussed include (1) relative ages and inferred absolute ages, (2) gravity, (3) magnetism, (4) chemical composition, and (5) reflection of radar waves (bistatic). Earth-based remote sensing and measurements discussed include (1) reflection of sunlight, (2) reflection and scattering of radar waves, and (3) infrared eclipse temperatures. Photographs from the Apollo missions, Lunar Orbiters, and other sources provide a fundamental source of data on the geology and topography of the Moon and a basis for comparing, correlating, and testing the remote sensing and measurements. Relative ages obtained from crater statistics and then empirically correlated with absolute ages indicate that significant lunar volcanism continued to 2.5 b.y. (billion years) ago-some 600 m.y. (million years) after the youngest volcanic rocks sampled by Apollo-and that intensive bombardment of the Moon occurred in the interval of 3.84 to 3.9 b.y. ago. Estimated fluxes of crater-producing objects during the last 50 m.y. agree fairly well with fluxes measured by the Apollo passive seismic stations. Gravity measurements obtained by observing orbiting spacecraft reveal that mare basins have mass concentrations and that the volume of material ejected from the Orientale basin is near 2 to 5 million km 3 depending on whether there has or has not been isostatic compensation, little or none of which has occurred since 3.84 b.y. ago. Isostatic compensation may have occurred in some of the old large lunar basins, but more data are needed to prove it. Steady fields of remanent magnetism were detected by the Apollo 15 and 16 subsatellites, and the lunar dipole field was revised to no more than 6x 10 19 gauss. High-resolution mapping of fields of weak remanent magnetism (to 0.1 gamma) was made possible by the Apollo plasma and energetic-particle experiment. Although the causes of remanent magnetism are poorly understood, correlations with geologic units suggest the results may ultimately have farreaching significance to lunar history. Maria are much less structured by strong surface magnetic anomalies than the highlands. The strongest anomalies are associated with ejecta of farside basins, plains materials filling pre-Imbrian craters, and other old Imbrian to pre-Imbrian units. The high remanent fields could be due to cooling of ejecta units in an ancient magnetic field, lunar regolith maturity, extensive reworking and disruption of a magnetized layer, or simply surface roughness. Orbital geochemical experiments have shown that lunar high lands have larger Al: Si ratios and smaller Mg: Si ratios than maria. These two ratios are inversely related on a regional basis. With the exception of fresh craters, albedo and Al : Si ratios vary directly, showing that compositional differences as well as exposure of fresh materials are responsible for high albedos. Statistically treated data show that geologic contacts and compositional boundaries are concentric and can be roughly matched. Some craters on mare material have penetrated the mare fill, bringing highland-type materials to the surface. Natural radioactivity from thorium, potassium, and uranium is inversely correlated with elevation. Mare regions are enriched in iron, titanium, and magnesium relative to the highlands. Orbital bistatic-radar results provide estimates of surface roughness at two scale lengths (about 30 m and 250 m), which agree with visual estimates of roughness. The dielectric constant of the lunar surface, where sampled, is uniform to 13-cm radar and near 3. Slope frequency distributions measured by the radar vary and

Professional Paper↗

Stress-driven recurrence and precursory moment-rate surge in caldera collapse earthquakes

Predicting the recurrence times of earthquakes and understanding the physical processes that immediately precede them are two outstanding problems in seismology. Although geodetic measurements record elastic strain accumulation, most faults have recurrence intervals longer than available measurements. Foreshocks provide the principal observations of processes before mainshocks, but variability between sequences limits generalizations of pre-failure behaviour. Here we analyse seismicity and deformation data for highly characteristic caldera collapse earthquakes from 2018 Kīlauea Volcano (Hawaii, USA), with a mean recurrence interval of 1.4 days. These events provide a unique test of stress-induced earthquake recurrence and document processes preceding mainshocks with magnitude greater than five. We show that recurrence intervals are well predicted by stress histories inferred from near-field deformation measurements and that cycle-averaged seismicity reveals a critical phase, minutes before mainshocks, where earthquakes grew larger and seismic moment rate surged dramatically. The average moment rate in the final 15 minutes (0.7% of the mean cycle duration) was 4.75 times the background, a highly significant change. We infer that as the average stress increased, ruptures were more likely to overcome geometric barriers and grow larger, leading to characteristic, whole-fault ruptures. These findings imply that stress heterogeneity influences both earthquake nucleation and growth, including on potentially hazardous tectonic faults.

Nature Geoscience↗

Organochlorine pesticides and PCBs in stream sediment and aquatic biota—initial results from the National Water-Quality Assessment Program, 1992–1995

One of the goals of the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program of the U.S. Geological Survey is to assess the status and trends in the nation's water quality and to understand the natural and anthropogenic factors that affect water-quality conditions. This report summarizes the occurrence and distribution of 33 organochlorine compounds in fluvial bed sediment and aquatic biota (whole freshwater fish and freshwater bivalves) sampled by NAWQA investigations between 1991 and 1994. These include historically used insecticides (DDT and metabolites, chlordane and its various components, and dieldrin), some currently used pesticides (permethrin and dacthal) and some industrial chemicals and byproducts (PCBs and hexaclorobenzene). Samples were collected at approximately 500 sites in 19 large hydrologic basins throughout the United States. Contaminant levels in bed sediment and aquatic biota are summarized, first on a national basis, and then by land-use classification (for example, urban, cropland, pasture and rangeland, and forest). Nationally, detection frequencies are highest in sediment and biota for the more persistent organochlorine compounds: total DDT, total chlordane, dieldrin, and total PCBs. Organochlorine compounds were detected more frequently in whole fish than in bivalves or bed sediment. Organochlorine pesticide concentrations were relatively high in agricultural regions with histories of high use. The highest organochlorine compound concentrations in both sediment and biota generally were associated with urban areas. Some organochlorine concentrations in sediment exceeded guidelines for the protection of aquatic organisms. A screening-level comparison of measured organochlorine concentrations in whole fish was made with human health guidelines that are applicable to edible fish. This comparison indicates stream sites at which additional sampling of game fish fillets may be warranted, depending on local patterns of fish consumption. A comparison of current national contaminant levels with previous studies of this scope suggests a gradual decrease in organochlorine contaminant levels, at least in fish.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Western state instream flow programs: a comparative assessment

During their early history, Western States water rights laws were primarily means for facilitating and regulating water diversions for offstream, consumptive use. More recently, a countervailing concern for instream values such as fish and wildlife habitat, recreation, aesthetic values, and water quality has emerged in the legislative and administrative handling of water rights. As of 1988, the Western United States show a variety of approaches to balancing instream and diversion water rights, from zero control through administrative actions to legislatively established rights for guaranteed instream flows. The nine Western States that have adopted statutory instream flow protection programs include Alaska, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. Arizona, California, and Nevada have relied, to date, on administrative and judicial decisions, while New Mexico has established no mechanism for protecting instream water uses. In the States with statutory protection, instream water uses are granted the same legal status as any other water uses under the prior appropriation doctrine. The success of instream flow protection has been remarkable, given the controversial nature of the issue, with nearly 2,000 stream reaches protected.

Report↗

A big data–model integration approach for predicting epizootics and population recovery in a keystone species

Infectious diseases pose a significant threat to global health and biodiversity. Yet, predicting the spatiotemporal dynamics of wildlife epizootics remains challenging. Disease outbreaks result from complex nonlinear interactions among a large collection of variables that rarely adhere to the assumptions of parametric regression modeling. We adopted a nonparametric machine learning approach to model wildlife epizootics and population recovery, using the disease system of colonial black-tailed prairie dogs (BTPD, Cynomys ludovicianus ) and sylvatic plague as an example. We synthesized colony data between 2001 and 2020 from eight USDA Forest Service National Grasslands across the range of BTPDs in central North America. We then modeled extinctions due to plague and colony recovery of BTPDs in relation to complex interactions among climate, topoedaphic variables, colony characteristics, and disease history. Extinctions due to plague occurred more frequently when BTPD colonies were spatially clustered, in closer proximity to colonies decimated by plague during the previous year, following cooler than average temperatures the previous summer, and when wetter winter/springs were preceded by drier summers/falls. Rigorous cross-validations and spatial predictions indicated that our final models predicted plague outbreaks and colony recovery in BTPD with high accuracy (e.g., AUC generally >0.80). Thus, these spatially explicit models can reliably predict the spatial and temporal dynamics of wildlife epizootics and subsequent population recovery in a highly complex host–pathogen system. Our models can be used to support strategic management planning (e.g., plague mitigation) to optimize benefits of this keystone species to associated wildlife communities and ecosystem functioning. This optimization can reduce conflicts among different landowners and resource managers, as well as economic losses to the ranching industry. More broadly, our big data–model integration approach provides a general framework for spatially explicit forecasting of disease-induced population fluctuations for use in natural resource management decision-making.

Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, New ↗

An evaluation of the relations between flow regime components, stream characteristics, species traits and meta-demographic rates of warmwater stream fishes: Implications for aquatic resource management

Fishery biologists are increasingly recognizing the importance of considering the dynamic nature of streams when developing streamflow policies. Such approaches require information on how flow regimes influence the physical environment and how those factors, in turn, affect species-specific demographic rates. A more cost-effective alternative could be the use of dynamic occupancy models to predict how species are likely to respond to changes in flow. To appraise the efficacy of this approach, we evaluated relative support for hypothesized effects of seasonal streamflow components, stream channel characteristics, and fish species traits on local extinction, colonization, and recruitment (meta-demographic rates) of stream fishes. We used 4 years of seasonal fish collection data from 23 streams to fit multistate, multiseason occupancy models for 42 fish species in the lower Flint River Basin, Georgia. Modelling results suggested that meta-demographic rates were influenced by streamflows, particularly short-term (10-day) flows. Flow effects on meta-demographic rates also varied with stream size, channel morphology, and fish species traits. Small-bodied species with generalized life-history characteristics were more resilient to flow variability than large-bodied species with specialized life-history characteristics. Using this approach, we simplified the modelling framework, thereby facilitating the development of dynamic, spatially explicit evaluations of the ecological consequences of water resource development activities over broad geographic areas. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Georgia↗

North American Bat Monitoring Program regional protocol for surveying with stationary deployments of echolocation recording devices: Narrative version 1.0, Pacific Northwestern US

The outbreak of white-nose syndrome (WNS) and the growing awareness of the risks to bats from wind power generating facilities have driven radical changes to North American bat conservation. Over the last decade, formerly common species such as the little brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus) and hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus) have experienced unprecedented mortality rates and are now facing non-trivial extinction risk. In response to this change, federal land management agencies such as the US National Park Service, US Fish and Wildlife Service, US Forest Service, US Bureau of Land Management and state wildlife management agencies such as the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife and Idaho Fish and Game have invested in collaborative, interagency bat monitoring to close the gap in information about bat welfare and to inform bat conservation strategies. Bats are notoriously difficult to track and study and there remains a paucity of fundamental information about the seasonal patterns of bat activity and habitat use and population distributions and abundances. Moreover, because bats are so highly mobile and difficult to survey (e.g., nocturnal flight), this information needs to be contextualized at broad regional (e.g., 10,000 km2) and range-wide extents. Delimiting bat populations at local scales (e.g., 100 km2) is very difficult and it is not clear, for example, how a declining trend in local (e.g., a small park unit) patterns of bat activity or relative abundance should be interpreted without broader context. In recognition of these challenges, a plan for coordinated continental-scale monitoring of bats, the North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat) was developed (Loeb et al. 2015). The centerpiece of the plan is the use of a spatially-balanced randomized master sample of grid-cell sample units from a grid-based sampling frame to provide the architecture for collaboration and the statistical foundation for making inferences about bat populations across broad regions and entire bat geographic ranges. The plan outlines general goals, survey design, and field methods for both summertime acoustic surveys of bats as well as winter and summer counts of bats in hibernacula and maternity colonies but it does not provide field-level protocol and standard operating procedures for consistent and efficient implementation. This regional protocol provides these details for one component of NABat, the deployment of stationary acoustic detectors to record bats during summer, as is called for by the NABat plan. This protocol was written specifically to provide guidance and consistency across the Pacific Northwestern US (N. California [California Department of Fish and Wildlife Northern Region], Idaho, Washington, and Oregon; US Fish and Wildlife Service Region 1 and portion of Region 8 [in Northern California and Klamath Basin]; US Forest Service Region 6 and portions of Regions 1 and 5 in Idaho; and the Upper Columbia Basin, North Coast Cascades, and Klamath Networks of the National Park Service). This region has internal cohesion, sharing a distinct bat faunal assemblage of 15 species (with several additional species occurring on the southern periphery of the region), and a long history of collaborative bat monitoring beginning with the interagency Bat Grid Program which operated from 2003-2010 across Oregon and Washington (US Forest Service Region 6). This protocol will be coordinated and implemented by the Northwestern Bat Hub, on behalf of the collective interagency partnership. The Northwestern Bat Hub is housed on the Oregon State University-Cascades campus and leverages pooled partner funds and resources to maintain a small staff that coordinates and conducts monitoring, provides training and oversight, ensures high-quality data quality and control, and analyzes data and reports on results.

California, Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗

Wildlife specimen collection, preservation, and shipment

Specimens are used to provide supporting information leading to the determination of the cause of disease or death in wildlife and for disease monitoring or surveillance. Commonly used specimens for wildlife disease investigations include intact carcasses, tissues from carcasses, euthanized or moribund animals, parasites, ingested food, feces, or environmental samples. Samples from live animals or the environment (e.g., contaminated feed) in the same vicinity as a mortality event also may be helpful. The type of specimen collected is determined by availability of samples and biological objectives. Multiple fresh, intact carcasses from affected species are the most useful in establishing a cause for a mortality event. Submission of entire carcasses allows observation of gross lesions and abnormalities, as well as disease testing of multiple tissues. Samples from live animals may be more appropriate when sick animals cannot be euthanized (e.g., threatened or endangered species) or for research and monitoring projects examining disease or agents circulating in apparently healthy animals or those not exhibiting clinical signs. Samples from live animals may include collections of blood, hair, feathers, feces, or ectoparasites, or samples obtained by swabbing lesions or orifices. Photographs and videos are useful additions for recording field and clinical signs and conveying conditions at the site. Collection of environmental samples (e.g., feces, water, feed, or soil) may be appropriate when animals cannot be captured for sampling or the disease agent may persist in the environment. If lethal collection is considered necessary, biologists should refer to the policies, procedures, and permit requirements of their institution/facility and the agency responsible for species management (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service or State natural resource agency) prior to use in the field. If threatened or endangered species are found dead, or there is evidence of illegal take, field personal should contact local wildlife law enforcement authorities immediately and prior to handling the carcass. Prior to collecting samples, it is important to determine the capabilities and submission criteria of the laboratory receiving the samples. Some laboratories may specialize in a limited number of tests, be equipped to accept only certain types of tissues (instead of entire carcasses), or specialize in particular species or group of animals (e.g., reptiles, birds, mammals). Diagnostic laboratories have specific requirements regarding preparation, labeling, and shipping of samples. Adherence to these requirements helps ensure the usefulness of any submitted specimens. Although laboratories may vary in the cost and turnaround times for diagnostic tests, some laboratories may be able to prioritize samples and accommodate accelerated time frames if communicated at the time of submission. Keeping a prepacked kit with basic carcass-collection supplies, including a paper copy of the specimen history form (available for download from the Web sites of most diagnostic laboratories), in the office or vehicle will decrease the chances of forgetting an essential item and decrease response time for arriving at an event.

Techniques and Methods↗

Integration of vegetation classification with land cover mapping: Lessons from regional mapping efforts in the Americas

Aims : Natural resource management and biodiversity conservation rely on inventories of vegetation that span multiple management or political jurisdictions. However, while remote sensing data and analytical tools have enabled production of maps at increasing spatial resolution and reliability, there are limited examples where national or continental-scaled maps are produced to represent vegetation at high thematic detail. We illustrate two examples that have bridged the gap between traditional land cover mapping and modern vegetation classification. Study area : Our two case studies include national ( USA ) and continental (North and South America) vegetation and land cover mapping. These studies span conditions from subpolar to tropical latitudes of the Americas. Methods : Both case studies used a supervised modeling approach with the International Vegetation Classification ( IVC ) to produce maps that provide for greater thematic detail. Georeferenced locations for these vegetation types are used by machine learning algorithms to train a predictive model and generate a distribution map. Results : The USA LANDFIRE (Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools Project) case study illustrates how a history of vegetation-based classification and availability of key inputs can come together to generate standard map products covering more than 9.8 million km 2 that are unsurpassed anywhere in the world in terms of spatial and thematic resolution. That being said, it also remains clear that mapping at the thematic resolution of the IVC Group and finer resolution require very large and spatially balanced inputs of georeferenced samples. Even with extensive prior data collection efforts, these remain a key limitation. The NatureServe effort for the Americas - encompassing 22% of the global land surface - demonstrates methods and outputs suitable for worldwide application at continental scales. Conclusions : Continued collection of input data used in the case studies could enable mapping at these spatial and thematic resolutions around the globe.

Vegetation Classification and Survey↗

St. Louis Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project— A progress report-November 2008

St. Louis has experienced minor earthquake damage at least 12 times in the past 200 years. Because of this history and its proximity to known active earthquake zones, the St. Louis Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project (SLAEHMP) is producing digital maps that show variability of earthquake hazards, including liquefaction and ground shaking, in the St. Louis area. The maps will be available free via the internet. Although not site specific enough to indicate the hazard at a house-by-house resolution, they can be customized by the user to show specific areas of interest, such as neighborhoods or transportation routes. Earthquakes currently cannot be predicted, but scientists can estimate how strongly the ground is likely to shake as the result of an earthquake. Earthquake hazard maps provide one way of conveying such estimates. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), which produces earthquake hazard maps for the Nation, is working with local partners to develop detailed maps for urban areas vulnerable to strong ground shaking. These partners, which along with the USGS comprise the SLAEHMP, include the Missouri University of Science and Technology-Rolla (Missouri S&T), Missouri Department of Natural Resources (MDNR), Illinois State Geological Survey (ISGS), Saint Louis University, Missouri State Emergency Management Agency, and URS Corporation. Preliminary hazard maps covering a test portion of the 29-quadrangle St. Louis study area have been produced and are currently being evaluated by the SLAEHMP. A USGS Fact Sheet summarizing this project was produced and almost 1000 copies have been distributed at several public outreach meetings and field trips that have featured the SLAEHMP (Williams and others, 2007). In addition, a USGS website focusing on the SLAEHMP, which provides links to project results and relevant earthquake hazard information, can be found at: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/ceus/urban_map/st_louis/index.php. This progress report summarizes the methodology and data used to generate these preliminary maps. For more details about many of the topics in this summary the reader is referred to the Karadeniz (2007) and Chung (2007) Ph.D. theses.

Illinois, Missouri↗

Microbial aggregates within tissues infect a diversity of corals throughout the Indo-Pacific

Coral reefs are highly diverse ecosystems where symbioses play a pivotal role. Corals contain cell-associated microbial aggregates (CAMA), yet little is known about how widespread they are among coral species or the nature of the symbiotic relationship. Using histology, we found CAMA within 24 species of corals from 6 genera from Hawaii, American Samoa, Palmyra, Johnston Atoll, Guam, and Australia. Prevalence (%) of infection varied among coral genera: Acropora, Porites, and Pocillopora were commonly infected whereas Montipora were not. Acropora from the Western Pacific were significantly more likely to be infected with CAMA than those from the Central Pacific, whereas the reverse was true for Porites. Compared with apparently healthy colonies, tissues from diseased colonies were significantly more likely to have both surface and basal body walls infected. The close association of CAMA with host cells in numerous species of apparently healthy corals and lack of associated cell pathology reveals an intimate agent-host association. Furthermore, CAMA are Gram negative and in some corals may be related to chlamydia or rickettsia. We propose that CAMA in adult corals are facultative secondary symbionts that could play an important ecological role in some dominant coral genera in the Indo-Pacific. CAMA are important in the life histories of other animals, and more work is needed to understand their role in the distribution, evolution, physiology, and immunology of reef corals.

Marine Ecology Progress Series↗

The socio-ecological niche

1. Ecologists recognise that we live on an increasingly human-dominated planet, yet most of the field's foundational concepts remain essentially biophysical, with little reference to human society. 2. There are few better examples of this divide between ecological and social theory than the niche concept. During its century-long history, the niche concept has been defined in many ways, including to describe the ecological roles of humans. To date, however, it has not incorporated human influences into its various descriptions of other species' ecological roles. 3. In this essay, we present the socio-ecological niche (SEN) concept, which builds on the literature in niche theory by contributing insights from the social sciences and humanities to better understand the roles of non-human species in modern socio-ecological systems. 4. We argue that the SEN enriches the niche concept and offers a point of connection between ecology and justice.

People and Nature↗

Back to full interseismic plate locking decades after the giant 1960 Chile earthquake

Great megathrust earthquakes arise from the sudden release of energy accumulated during centuries of interseismic plate convergence. The moment deficit (energy available for future earthquakes) is commonly inferred by integrating the rate of interseismic plate locking over the time since the previous great earthquake. But accurate integration requires knowledge of how interseismic plate locking changes decades after earthquakes, measurements not available for most great earthquakes. Here we reconstruct the post-earthquake history of plate locking at Guafo Island, above the seismogenic zone of the giant 1960 ( M w = 9.5) Chile earthquake, through forward modeling of land-level changes inferred from aerial imagery (since 1974) and measured by GPS (since 1994). We find that interseismic locking increased to ~70% in the decade following the 1960 earthquake and then gradually to 100% by 2005. Our findings illustrate the transient evolution of plate locking in Chile, and suggest a similarly complex evolution elsewhere, with implications for the time- and magnitude-dependent probability of future events.

Nature Communications↗

This dynamic planet: World map of volcanoes, earthquakes, impact craters and plate tectonics

Our Earth is a dynamic planet, as clearly illustrated on the main map by its topography, over 1500 volcanoes, 44,000 earthquakes, and 170 impact craters. These features largely reflect the movements of Earth's major tectonic plates and many smaller plates or fragments of plates (including microplates). Volcanic eruptions and earthquakes are awe-inspiring displays of the powerful forces of nature and can be extraordinarily destructive. On average, about 60 of Earth's 550 historically active volcanoes are in eruption each year. In 2004 alone, over 160 earthquakes were magnitude 6.0 or above, some of which caused casualties and substantial damage. This map shows many of the features that have shaped--and continue to change--our dynamic planet. Most new crust forms at ocean ridge crests, is carried slowly away by plate movement, and is ultimately recycled deep into the earth--causing earthquakes and volcanism along the boundaries between moving tectonic plates. Oceans are continually opening (e.g., Red Sea, Atlantic) or closing (e.g., Mediterranean). Because continental crust is thicker and less dense than thinner, younger oceanic crust, most does not sink deep enough to be recycled, and remains largely preserved on land. Consequently, most continental bedrock is far older than the oldest oceanic bedrock. (see back of map) The earthquakes and volcanoes that mark plate boundaries are clearly shown on this map, as are craters made by impacts of extraterrestrial objects that punctuate Earth's history, some causing catastrophic ecological changes. Over geologic time, continuing plate movements, together with relentless erosion and redeposition of material, mask or obliterate traces of earlier plate-tectonic or impact processes, making the older chapters of Earth's 4,500-million-year history increasingly difficult to read. The recent activity shown on this map provides only a present-day snapshot of Earth's long history, helping to illustrate how its present surface came to be. The map is designed to show the most prominent features when viewed from a distance, and more detailed features upon closer inspection. The back of the map zooms in further, highlighting examples of fundamental features, while providing text, timelines, references, and other resources to enhance understanding of this dynamic planet. Both the front and back of this map illustrate the enormous recent growth in our knowledge of planet Earth. Yet, much remains unknown, particularly about the processes operating below the ever-shifting plates and the detailed geological history during all but the most recent stage of Earth's development.

IMAP↗

Optimizing historical preservation under climate change—An overview of the optimal preservation model and pilot testing at Cape Lookout National Seashore

Adapting cultural resources to climate-change effects challenges traditional cultural resource decision making because some adaptation strategies can negatively affect the integrity of cultural resources. Yet, the inevitability of climate-change effects—even given the uncertain timing of those effects—necessitates that managers begin prioritizing resources for climate-change adaptation. Prioritization imposes an additional management challenge: managers must make difficult tradeoffs to achieve desired management outcomes related to maximizing the resource values. This report provides an overview of a pilot effort to integrate vulnerability (exposure and sensitivity), significance, and use potential metrics in a decision framework—the Optimal Preservation (OptiPres) Model—to inform climate adaptation planning of a subset of buildings in historic districts (listed on the National Register of Historic Places) at Cape Lookout National Seashore. The OptiPres Model uses a numerical optimization algorithm to assess the timing and application of a portfolio of adaptation actions that could most effectively preserve an assortment of buildings associated with different histories, intended uses, and construction design and materials over a 30-year planning horizon. The outputs from the different budget scenarios, though not prescriptive, provide visualizations of and insights to the sequence and type of optimal actions and the changes to individual building resource values and accumulated resource values. Study findings suggest the OptiPres Model has planning utility related to fiscal efficiency by identifying a budget threshold necessary to maintain the historical significance and use potential of historical buildings while reducing vulnerability (collectively, the accumulated resource value). Specifically, findings identify that a minimum of the industry standard ($222,000 annually for the 17 buildings) is needed to maintain the current accumulated resource value. Additionally, results suggest that additional appropriations provided on regular intervals when annual appropriations are at the industry standard are nearly as efficient as annual appropriations at twice the rate of industry standards and increase the amount of accumulated resource values to nearly the same level. However, periodic increases in funding may increase the risks posed to buildings from the probability of a natural hazard (that is, damage or loss from a hurricane). Suggestions for model refinements include developing standardized cost estimations for adaptation actions based on square footage and building materials, developing metrics to quantify the historical integrity of buildings, integrating social values data, including additional objectives (such as public safety) in the model, refining vulnerability data and transforming the data to include risk assessment, and incorporating stochastic events (that is, hurricane and wind effects) into the model.

North Carolina↗

Bloom forming cyanobacteria can adversely affect zebra and quagga mussel veligers

Quagga ( Dreissena rostriformis bugensis ) and zebra ( D. polymorpha ) mussels are broadcast spawners that produce planktonic, free swimming veligers, a life history strategy dissimilar to native North American freshwater bivalves. Dreissenid veligers require highly nutritious food to grow and survive, and thus may be susceptible to increased mortality rates during harsh environmental conditions like cyanobacteria blooms. However, the impact of cyanobacteria and one of the toxins they can produce (microcystin) has not been evaluated in dreissenid veligers. Therefore, we exposed dreissenid veligers to eleven distinct cultures (isolates) of cyanobacteria representing Anabaena, Aphanizomenon, Dolichospermum, Microcystis, and Planktothrix species and the cyanotoxin microcystin to determine the lethality of cyanobacteria on dreissenid veligers. Six-day laboratory bioassays were performed in microplates using dreissenid veligers collected from the Detroit River, Michigan, USA. Veligers were exposed to increasing concentrations of cyanobacteria and microcystin using the green algae Chlorella minutissima as a control. Based on dose response curves formulated from a Probit model, the LC 50 values for cyanobacteria used in this study range between 15.06 and 135.06 μg/L chlorophyll- a , with the LC 50 for microcystin-LR at 13.03 μg/L. Because LC 50 values were within ranges observed in natural waterbodies, it is possible that dreissenid recruitment may be suppressed when veliger abundances overlap with seasonal cyanobacteria blooms. Thus, the toxicity of cyanobacteria to dreissenid veligers may be useful to include in models forecasting dreissenid mussel abundance and spread.

Ecotoxicology and Environmental Safety↗