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Overview of a compre­hensive resource database for the assessment of recoverable hydrocarbons produced by carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery

A database called the “Comprehensive Resource Database” (CRD) was prepared to support U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments of technically recoverable hydrocarbons that might result from the injection of miscible or immiscible carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) for enhanced oil recovery (EOR). The CRD was designed by INTEK Inc., a consulting company under contract to the USGS. The CRD contains data on the location, key petrophysical properties, production, and well counts (number of wells) for the major oil and gas reservoirs in onshore areas and State waters of the conterminous United States and Alaska. The CRD includes proprietary data on petrophysical properties of fields and reservoirs from the “Significant Oil and Gas Fields of the United States Database,” prepared by Nehring Associates in 2012, and proprietary production and drilling data from the “Petroleum Information Data Model Relational U.S. Well Data,” prepared by IHS Inc. in 2012. This report describes the CRD and the computer algorithms used to (1) estimate missing reservoir property values in the Nehring Associates (2012) database, and to (2) generate values of additional properties used to characterize reservoirs suitable for miscible or immiscible CO 2 flooding for EOR. Because of the proprietary nature of the data and contractual obligations, the CRD and actual data from Nehring Associates (2012) and IHS Inc. (2012) cannot be presented in this report.

Techniques and Methods↗

Influence of stream habitat and land use on benthic macroinvertebrate indicators of stream quality of selected above-tidal streams in the Houston-Galveston Area Council service area, Texas, 1997–98

During 1997–98, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Houston-Galveston Area Council, collected stream-habitat and benthic macroinvertebrate data for 31 reaches on abovetidal streams in the Council service area near Houston, Texas. Stream-habitat, land-use and population, and benthic aquatic insect metrics were determined for the 31 reaches. Statistical analyses were used to determine the stream-habitat, land-use and population, and aquatic insect variables that are strongly intercorrelated and that explain the greatest amount of variation between the reaches. Comparison of stream-habitat and biological integrity scores computed for each of the 31 reaches indicated (1) reaches generally had larger stream-habitat integrity scores in drainage areas that were heavily forested and had fewer people per square mile, (2) larger biological integrity scores were significantly correlated with larger stream-habitat integrity scores, and (3) urban reaches generally had more simplified streamhabitat conditions and smaller biological integrity scores. Seven reaches in the study area were selected as reference reaches on the basis of high streamhabitat integrity and high biological integrity. The reference-reaches median biological integrity score was equaled or exceeded by three reaches (one on Spring Creek and two on Cypress Creek) that are on the State of Texas 303(d) list of threatened or impaired waters with respect to aquatic life. This indicates that direct measures of biological integrity could be used to supplement surrogatebased designations of biological integrity such as the State list. A statistically significant multipleregression model was developed that uses independent variables that can be obtained without fieldintensive studies to predict the biological integrity score for a reach. The deviation from the model’s predicted score with the score based on biological sampling can be used to interpret the degree of biological impairment in a reach. Data from reaches outside the group of reaches used in this study are needed to test the validity of the multipleregression model.

Texas↗

Testing the sensitivity of pumpage to increases in surficial aquifer system heads in the Cypress Creek well-field area, west-central Florida — An optimization technique

Tampa Bay depends on ground water for most of the water supply. Numerous wetlands and lakes in Pasco County have been impacted by the high demand for ground water. Central Pasco County, particularly the area within the Cypress Creek well field, has been greatly affected. Probable causes for the decline in surface-water levels are well-field pumpage and a decade-long drought. Efforts are underway to increase surface-water levels by developing alternative sources of water supply, thus reducing the quantity of well-field pumpage. Numerical ground-water flow simulations coupled with an optimization routine were used in a series of simulations to test the sensitivity of optimal pumpage to desired increases in surficial aquifer system heads in the Cypress Creek well field. The ground-water system was simulated using the central northern Tampa Bay ground-water flow model. Pumping solutions for 1987 equilibrium conditions and for a transient 6-month timeframe were determined for five test cases, each reflecting a range of desired target recovery heads at different head control sites in the surficial aquifer system. Results are presented in the form of curves relating average head recovery to total optimal pumpage. Pumping solutions are sensitive to the location of head control sites formulated in the optimization problem and as expected, total optimal pumpage decreased when desired target head increased. The distribution of optimal pumpage for individual production wells also was significantly affected by the location of head control sites. A pumping advantage was gained for test-case formulations where hydraulic heads were maximized in cells near the production wells, in cells within the steady-state pumping center cone of depression, and in cells within the area of the well field where confining-unit leakance is the highest. More water was pumped and the ratio of head recovery per unit decrease in optimal pumpage was more than double for test cases where hydraulic heads are maximized in cells located at or near the production wells. Additionally, the ratio of head recovery per unit decrease in pumpage was about three times more for the area where confining-unit leakance is the highest than for other leakance zone areas of the well field. For many head control sites, optimal heads corresponding to optimal pumpage deviated from the desired target recovery heads. Overall, pumping solutions were constrained by the limiting recovery values, initial head conditions, and by upper boundary conditions of the ground-water flow model.

Florida↗

Simulation of ground-water flow and delineation of areas contributing recharge within the Mt. Simon-Hinckley aquifer to well fields in the Prairie Island Indian Community, Minnesota

The Prairie Island Indian Community in east-central Minnesota uses ground water from the Mt. Simon-Hinckley aquifer as its source of water supply. Tribal officials implemented a Source Water Protection Program to protect the quality of this water. Areas of contributing recharge were delineated for two community well fields. At well field A are two wells 325 m apart, and at well field B are two wells 25 m apart. A steady state single layer, two-dimensional ground-water flow model constructed with the computer program MODFLOW,combined with the particle-tracking computer program MODPATH, was used to track water particles (upgradient) from the two well fields. A withdrawal rate of 625 m 3 /d was simulated for each well field. The ground-water flow paths delineated areas of contributing recharge that are 0.38 and 0.65 km 2 based on 10- and 50-year travel times, respectively. The flow paths that define these areas extend for maximum distances of about 350 and 450 m, respectively, from the wells. At well field A the area of contributing recharge was delineated for each well as separate withdrawal points. At well field B the area of contributing recharge was delineated for the two wells as a single withdrawal point. Delineation of areas of contributing recharge to the well fields from land surface would require construction of a multi-layer ground-water flow model.

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

AQUIFEM-SALT; a finite-element model for aquifers containing a seawater interface

Described are modifications to AQUIFEM, a finite element areal ground-water flow model for aquifer evaluation. The modified model, AQUIFEM-SALT, simulates an aquifer containing a freshwater body that freely floats on seawater. Parts of the freshwater lens may be confined above and below by less permeable units. Theory, code modifications, and model verification are discussed. A modified input data list is included. This report is intended as a companion to the original AQUIFEM documentation. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Verification and adjustment of regional regression models for urban storm-runoff quality using data collected in Little Rock, Arkansas

Storm-runoff water-quality data were used to verify and, when appropriate, adjust regional regression models previously developed to estimate urban storm- runoff loads and mean concentrations in Little Rock, Arkansas. Data collected at 5 representative sites during 22 storms from June 1992 through January 1994 compose the Little Rock data base. Comparison of observed values (0) of storm-runoff loads and mean concentrations to the predicted values (Pu) from the regional regression models for nine constituents (chemical oxygen demand, suspended solids, total nitrogen, total ammonia plus organic nitrogen as nitrogen, total phosphorus, dissolved phosphorus, total recoverable copper, total recoverable lead, and total recoverable zinc) shows large prediction errors ranging from 63 to several thousand percent. Prediction errors for six of the regional regression models are less than 100 percent, and can be considered reasonable for water-quality models. Differences between 0 and Pu are due to variability in the Little Rock data base and error in the regional models. Where applicable, a model adjustment procedure (termed MAP-R-P) based upon regression with 0 against Pu was applied to improve predictive accuracy. For 11 of the 18 regional water-quality models, 0 and Pu are significantly correlated, that is much of the variation in 0 is explained by the regional models. Five of these 11 regional models consistently overestimate O; therefore, MAP-R-P can be used to provide a better estimate. For the remaining seven regional models, 0 and Pu are not significanfly correlated, thus neither the unadjusted regional models nor the MAP-R-P is appropriate. A simple estimator, such as the mean of the observed values may be used if the regression models are not appropriate. Standard error of estimate of the adjusted models ranges from 48 to 130 percent. Calibration results may be biased due to the limited data set sizes in the Little Rock data base. The relatively large values of standard error of estimate for some of the constituent models may be unacceptable for some applications. The user may need to collect additional local data for these constituents and repeat the model adjustment procedure analysis or calibrate an independent local regression model.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Demand surge following earthquakes

Demand surge is understood to be a socio-economic phenomenon where repair costs for the same damage are higher after large- versus small-scale natural disasters. It has reportedly increased monetary losses by 20 to 50%. In previous work, a model for the increased costs of reconstruction labor and materials was developed for hurricanes in the Southeast United States. The model showed that labor cost increases, rather than the material component, drove the total repair cost increases, and this finding could be extended to earthquakes. A study of past large-scale disasters suggested that there may be additional explanations for demand surge. Two such explanations specific to earthquakes are the exclusion of insurance coverage for earthquake damage and possible concurrent causation of damage from an earthquake followed by fire or tsunami. Additional research into these aspects might provide a better explanation for increased monetary losses after large- vs. small-scale earthquakes.

Conference Paper↗

A regional analysis of long-term gray and harbor seal stranding events

Strong indicators of species’ sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and overall vulnerability to climate change are provided by changes in phenology, the timing of recurring life events (Parmesan and Yohe, 2003). We possess poor information on climate induced shifts in phenology of marine organisms, especially top predators. The Gulf of Maine (GOM) Seasonal Migrants Project is an ongoing effort to determine the phenological changes occurring in the GOM across marine mammals, sea turtles, and other marine species of conservation concern. As part of that study, stranding data of injured or dead animals was explored for its utility to serve as supplemental data to amend more traditional survey data where observations are scarce. NOAA’s Greater Atlantic Region Marine Mammal Stranding Network Database was examined for its utility as a potential long-term time series for the evaluation of phenological patterns and shifts. Although records from stranding events represent sick or injured animals, these data have been found to be reasonably comparable to survey data and provide useful information on species’ distribution, abundance, and foraging ecology (Maldini et al., 2005; Staudinger et al., 2014; Johnston et al., 2012, 2015). In this study, we focused on stranding data of two marine mammal species, harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) and gray seals (Halichoerus grypus). It was anticipated these data would also be good indicators of the areas and habitats that seal populations use on a seasonal and annual basis in the region. Viable stranding data from Maine to North Carolina included 1,571 gray seals and 4,399 harbor seals from 2001 to 2015. This paper presents a summary of the spatial and temporal patterns of these data, and suggests their suitability as supplemental data to other GOM marine species phenological studies, such as the North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium database modeling efforts.

Report↗

Numerical groundwater-flow model of the Minnelusa and Madison hydrogeologic units in the Rapid City area, South Dakota

The city of Rapid City and other water users in the Rapid City area obtain water supplies from the Minnelusa and Madison aquifers, which are contained in the Minnelusa and Madison hydrogeologic units. A numerical groundwater-flow model of the Minnelusa and Madison hydrogeologic units in the Rapid City area was developed to synthesize estimates of water-budget components and hydraulic properties, and to provide a tool to analyze the effect of additional stress on water-level altitudes within the aquifers and on discharge to springs. This report, prepared in cooperation with the city of Rapid City, documents a numerical groundwater-flow model of the Minnelusa and Madison hydrogeologic units for the 1,000-square-mile study area that includes Rapid City and the surrounding area. Water-table conditions generally exist in outcrop areas of the Minnelusa and Madison hydrogeologic units, which form generally concentric rings that surround the Precambrian core of the uplifted Black Hills. Confined conditions exist east of the water-table areas in the study area. The Minnelusa hydrogeologic unit is 375 to 800 feet (ft) thick in the study area with the more permeable upper part containing predominantly sandstone and the less permeable lower part containing more shale and limestone than the upper part. Shale units in the lower part generally impede flow between the Minnelusa hydrogeologic unit and the underlying Madison hydrogeologic unit; however, fracturing and weathering may result in hydraulic connections in some areas. The Madison hydrogeologic unit is composed of limestone and dolomite that is about 250 to 610 ft thick in the study area, and the upper part contains substantial secondary permeability from solution openings and fractures. Recharge to the Minnelusa and Madison hydrogeologic units is from streamflow loss where streams cross the outcrop and from infiltration of precipitation on the outcrops (areal recharge). MODFLOW-2000, a finite-difference groundwater-flow model, was used to simulate flow in the Minnelusa and Madison hydrogeologic units with five layers. Layer 1 represented the fractured sandstone layers in the upper 250 ft of the Minnelusa hydrogeologic unit, and layer 2 represented the lower part of the Minnelusa hydrogeologic unit. Layer 3 represented the upper 150 ft of the Madison hydrogeologic unit, and layer 4 represented the less permeable lower part. Layer 5 represented an approximation of the underlying Deadwood aquifer to simulate upward flow to the Madison hydrogeologic unit. The finite-difference grid, oriented 23 degrees counterclockwise, included 221 rows and 169 columns with a square cell size of 492.1 ft in the detailed study area that surrounded Rapid City. The northern and southern boundaries for layers 1-4 were represented as no-flow boundaries, and the boundary on the east was represented with head-dependent flow cells. Streamflow recharge was represented with specified-flow cells, and areal recharge to layers 1-4 was represented with a specified-flux boundary. Calibration of the model was accomplished by two simulations: (1) steady-state simulation of average conditions for water years 1988-97 and (2) transient simulations of water years 1988-97 divided into twenty 6-month stress periods. Flow-system components represented in the model include recharge, discharge, and hydraulic properties. The steady-state streamflow recharge rate was 42.2 cubic feet per second (ft3/s), and transient streamflow recharge rates ranged from 14.1 to 102.2 ft3/s. The steady-state areal recharge rate was 20.9 ft3/s, and transient areal recharge rates ranged from 1.1 to 98.4 ft3/s. The upward flow rate from the Deadwood aquifer to the Madison hydrogeologic unit was 6.3 ft3/s. Discharge included springflow, water use, flow to overlying units, and regional outflow. The estimated steady-state springflow of 32.8 ft3/s from seven springs was similar to the simulated springflow of 31.6 ft3/s, which included 20.5 ft3

South Dakota↗

Population age and initial density in a patchy environment affect the occurrence of abrupt transitions in a birth-and-death model of Taylor's law

Taylor's power law describes an empirical relationship between the mean and variance of population densities in field data, in which the variance varies as a power, b , of the mean. Most studies report values of b varying between 1 and 2. However, Cohen (2014a) showed recently that smooth changes in environmental conditions in a model can lead to an abrupt, infinite change in b . To understand what factors can influence the occurrence of an abrupt change in b , we used both mathematical analysis and Monte Carlo samples from a model in which populations of the same species settled on patches, and each population followed independently a stochastic linear birth-and-death process. We investigated how the power relationship responds to a smooth change of population growth rate, under different sampling strategies, initial population density, and population age. We showed analytically that, if the initial populations differ only in density, and samples are taken from all patches after the same time period following a major invasion event, Taylor's law holds with exponent b =1, regardless of the population growth rate. If samples are taken at different times from patches that have the same initial population densities, we calculate an abrupt shift of b , as predicted by Cohen (2014a). The loss of linearity between log variance and log mean is a leading indicator of the abrupt shift. If both initial population densities and population ages vary among patches, estimates of b lie between 1 and 2, as in most empirical studies. But the value of b declines to ~1 as the system approaches a critical point. Our results can inform empirical studies that might be designed to demonstrate an abrupt shift in Taylor's law.

Ecological Modelling↗

National assessment of hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards--Gulf of Mexico

Sandy beaches provide a natural barrier between the ocean and inland communities, ecosystems, and resources. However, these dynamic environments move and change in response to winds, waves, and currents. During a hurricane, these changes can be large and sometimes catastrophic. High waves and storm surge act together to erode beaches and inundate low-lying lands, putting inland communities at risk. A decade of USGS research on storm-driven coastal change hazards has provided the data and modeling capabilities to identify areas of our coastline that are likely to experience extreme and potentially hazardous erosion during a hurricane. This report defines hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards for sandy beaches along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coastline. The analysis is based on a storm-impact scaling model that uses observations of beach morphology combined with sophisticated hydrodynamic models to predict how the coast will respond to the direct landfall of category 1-5 hurricanes. Hurricane-induced water levels, due to both surge and waves, are compared to beach and dune elevations to determine the probabilities of three types of coastal change: collision (dune erosion), overwash, and inundation. As new beach morphology observations and storm predictions become available, this analysis will be updated to describe how coastal vulnerability to storms will vary in the future.

Open-File Report↗