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USGS1998

Quantitative measure of the variation in fault rheology due to fluid-rock interactions

We analyze friction data from two published suites of laboratory tests on granite in order to explore and quantify the effects of temperature ( T ) and pore water pressure ( P p ) on the sliding behavior of faults. Rate-stepping sliding tests were performed on laboratory faults in granite containing “gouge” (granite powder), both dry at 23° to 845°C [ Lockner et al. , 1986], and wet ( P p = 100 MPa) at 23° to 600°C [ Blanpied et al ., 1991, 1995]. Imposed slip velocities ( V ) ranged from 0.01 to 5.5 μm/s, and effective normal stresses were near 400 MPa. For dried granite at all temperatures, and wet granite below ∼300°C, the coefficient of friction (μ) shows low sensitivity to V , T , and P p . For wet granite above ∼350°, μ drops rapidly with increasing T and shows a strong, positive rate dependence and protracted strength transients following steps in V , presumably reflecting the activity of a water-aided deformation process. By inverting strength data from velocity stepping tests we determined values for parameters in three formulations of a rate- and state-dependent constitutive law. One or two state variables were used to represent slip history effects. Each velocity step yielded an independent set of values for the nominal friction level, five constitutive parameters (transient parameters a , b 1 , and b 2 and characteristic displacements D c1 and D c2 ), and the velocity dependence of steady state friction ∂μ ss /∂ ln V = a - b 1 − b 2 . Below 250°, data from dry and most wet tests are adequately modeled by using the “slip law” [ Ruina , 1983] and one state variable ( a = 0.003 to 0.018, b = 0.001 to +0.018, D c ≈ 1 to 20 μm). Dried tests above 250° can also be fitted with one state variable. In contrast, wet tests above 350° require higher direct rate dependence ( a = 0.03 to 0.12), plus a second state variable with large, negative amplitude ( b 2 = −0.03 to −0.14) and large characteristic displacement ( D c2 = 300 to >4000 μm). Thus the parameters a , b 1 , and b 2 for wet granite show a pronounced change in their temperature dependence in the range 270° to 350°C, which may reflect a change in underlying deformation mechanism. We quantify the trends in parameter values from 25° to 600°C by piecewise linear regressions, which provide a straightforward means to incorporate the full constitutive response of granite into numerical models of fault slip. The modeling results suggest that the succeptibility for unstable (stick-slip) sliding is maximized between 90° and 360°C, in agreement with laboratory observations and consistent with the depth range of earthquakes on mature faults in the continental crust.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1998

The excitation and characteristic frequency of the long-period volcanic event: An approach based on an inhomogeneous autoregressive model of a linear dynamic system

We present a method to quantify the source excitation function and characteristic frequencies of long-period volcanic events. The method is based on an inhomogeneous autoregressive (AR) model of a linear dynamic system, in which the excitation is assumed to be a time-localized function applied at the beginning of the event. The tail of an exponentially decaying harmonic waveform is used to determine the characteristic complex frequencies of the event by the Sompi method. The excitation function is then derived by operating an AR filter constructed from the characteristic frequencies to the entire seismogram of the event, including the inhomogeneous part of the signal. We apply this method to three long-period events at Kusatsu-Shirane Volcano, central Japan, whose waveforms display simple decaying monochromatic oscillations except for the beginning of the events. We recover time-localized excitation functions lasting roughly 1 s at the start of each event and find that the estimated functions are very similar to each other at all the stations of the seismic network for each event. The phases of the characteristic oscillations referred to the estimated excitation function fall within a narrow range for almost all the stations. These results strongly suggest that the excitation and mode of oscillation are both dominated by volumetric change components. Each excitation function starts with a pronounced dilatation consistent with a sudden deflation of the volumetric source which may be interpreted in terms of a choked-flow transport mechanism. The frequency and Q of the characteristic oscillation both display a temporal evolution from event to event. Assuming a crack filled with bubbly water as seismic source for these events, we apply the Van Wijngaarden-Papanicolaou model to estimate the acoustic properties of the bubbly liquid and find that the observed changes in the frequencies and Q are consistently explained by a temporal change in the radii of the bubbles characterizing the bubbly water in the crack.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1998

The coseismic slip distributions of the 1940 and 1979 Imperial Valley, California, earthquakes and their implications

Geodetic arrays observed by the U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey span the Imperial fault in southern California. For the 1940 M 7.1 Imperial Valley earthquake, a 1934–1941 triangulation network has sufficient resolution to allow inversion for the coseismic slip distribution on fault segments 5 to 25 km long extending from the surface to a depth of 9 km. The estimated right-lateral slip is 0.8 to 1.7 m on the northern 30 km of the main trace of the Imperial fault, 4.8±0.2 m on a 10-km-long segment straddling the United States - Mexico border, and 1.3±0.4 m on a southern 25-km-long segment in Mexico. Fixing this strike-slip model and inverting 1940 leveling data only for dip slip yields 0.1 m of east-side-down dip slip. The seismic moment for this model is M 0 = (3.2±0.3) ×10 19 N m. The 1979 geodetic data set, mostly elevation changes from leveling routes, has insufficient resolution for inversion. However, it is possible to use this geodetic data set and results published by others to infer that the 1940 and 1979 earthquakes may be similar on the rupture zone common to both events. Our preferred 1940 model is similar to the 1979 geodetic results of Crook [1984] on the segments where both networks have good resolution. Elevation changes from 1940 and 1979 leveling data are very similar. Thus the geodetic data corroborate the surface slip evidence of Sharp [1982b] that the 1940 and 1979 slip distributions are examples of “characteristic slip” on the northern Imperial fault.

California↗
USGS1998

Absence of earthquake correlation with Earth tides: An indication of high preseismic fault stress rate

Because the rate of stress change from the Earth tides exceeds that from tectonic stress accumulation, tidal triggering of earthquakes would be expected if the final hours of loading of the fault were at the tectonic rate and if rupture began soon after the achievement of a critical stress level. We analyze the tidal stresses and stress rates on the fault planes and at the times of 13,042 earthquakes which are so close to the San Andreas and Calaveras faults in California that we may take the fault plane to be known. We find that the stresses and stress rates from Earth tides at the times of earthquakes are distributed in the same way as tidal stresses and stress rates at random times. While the rate of earthquakes when the tidal stress promotes failure is 2% higher than when the stress does not, this difference in rate is not statistically significant. This lack of tidal triggering implies that preseismic stress rates in the nucleation zones of earthquakes are at least 0.15 bar/h just preceding seismic failure, much above the long-term tectonic stress rate of 10 −4 bar/h.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1998

Paleoseismic investigations in the Santa Cruz mountains, California: Implications for recurrence of large-magnitude earthquakes on the San Andreas fault

Trenching, microgeomorphic mapping, and tree ring analysis provide information on timing of paleoearthquakes and behavior of the San Andreas fault in the Santa Cruz mountains. At the Grizzly Flat site alluvial units dated at 1640–1659 A.D., 1679–1894 A.D., 1668–1893 A.D., and the present ground surface are displaced by a single event. This was the 1906 surface rupture. Combined trench dates and tree ring analysis suggest that the penultimate event occurred in the mid-1600 s, possibly in an interval as narrow as 1632–1659 A.D. There is no direct evidence in the trenches for the 1838 or 1865 earthquakes, which have been proposed as occurring on this part of the fault zone. In a minimum time of about 340 years only one large surface faulting event (1906) occurred at Grizzly Flat, in contrast to previous recurrence estimates of 95–110 years for the Santa Cruz mountains segment. Comparison with dates of the penultimate San Andreas earthquake at sites north of San Francisco suggests that the San Andreas fault between Point Arena and the Santa Cruz mountains may have failed either as a sequence of closely timed earthquakes on adjacent segments or as a single long rupture similar in length to the 1906 rupture around the mid-1600 s. The 1906 coseismic geodetic slip and the late Holocene geologic slip rate on the San Francisco peninsula and southward are about 50–70% and 70% of their values north of San Francisco, respectively. The slip gradient along the 1906 rupture section of the San Andreas reflects partitioning of plate boundary slip onto the San Gregorio, Sargent, and other faults south of the Golden Gate. If a mid-1600 s event ruptured the same section of the fault that failed in 1906, it supports the concept that long strike-slip faults can contain master rupture segments that repeat in both length and slip distribution. Recognition of a persistent slip rate gradient along the northern San Andreas fault and the concept of a master segment remove the requirement that lower slip sections of large events such as 1906 must fill in on a periodic basis with smaller and more frequent earthquakes.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1998

Stress transferred by the 1995 Mw = 6.9 Kobe, Japan, shock: Effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities

The Kobe earthquake struck at the edge of the densely populated Osaka-Kyoto corridor in southwest Japan. We investigate how the earthquake transferred stress to nearby faults, altering their proximity to failure and thus changing earthquake probabilities. We find that relative to the pre-Kobe seismicity, Kobe aftershocks were concentrated in regions of calculated Coulomb stress increase and less common in regions of stress decrease. We quantify this relationship by forming the spatial correlation between the seismicity rate change and the Coulomb stress change. The correlation is significant for stress changes greater than 0.2–1.0 bars (0.02–0.1 MPa), and the nonlinear dependence of seismicity rate change on stress change is compatible with a state- and rate-dependent formulation for earthquake occurrence. We extend this analysis to future mainshocks by resolving the stress changes on major faults within 100 km of Kobe and calculating the change in probability caused by these stress changes. Transient effects of the stress changes are incorporated by the state-dependent constitutive relation, which amplifies the permanent stress changes during the aftershock period. Earthquake probability framed in this manner is highly time-dependent, much more so than is assumed in current practice. Because the probabilities depend on several poorly known parameters of the major faults, we estimate uncertainties of the probabilities by Monte Carlo simulation. This enables us to include uncertainties on the elapsed time since the last earthquake, the repeat time and its variability, and the period of aftershock decay. We estimate that a calculated 3-bar (0.3-MPa) stress increase on the eastern section of the Arima-Takatsuki Tectonic Line (ATTL) near Kyoto causes fivefold increase in the 30-year probability of a subsequent large earthquake near Kyoto; a 2-bar (0.2-MPa) stress decrease on the western section of the ATTL results in a reduction in probability by a factor of 140 to 2000. The probability of a M w = 6.9 earthquake within 50 km of Osaka during 1997–2007 is estimated to have risen from 5–6% before the Kobe earthquake to 7–11% afterward; during 1997–2027, it is estimated to have risen from 14–16% before Kobe to 16–22%.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1998

Suppression of large earthquakes by stress shadows: A comparison of Coulomb and rate-and-state failure

Stress shadows generated by California's two most recent great earthquakes (1857 Fort Tejon and 1906 San Francisco) substantially modified 19th and 20th century earthquake history in the Los Angeles basin and in the San Francisco Bay area. Simple Coulomb failure calculations, which assume that earthquakes can be modeled as static dislocations in an elastic half-space, have done quite well at approximating how long the stress shadows, or relaxing effects, should last and at predicting where subsequent large earthquakes will not occur. There has, however, been at least one apparent exception to the predictions of such simple models. The 1911 M >6.0 earthquake near Morgan Hill, California, occurred at a relaxed site on the Calaveras fault. We examine how the more complex rate-and-state friction formalism based on laboratory experiments might have allowed the 1911 earthquake. Rate-and-state time-to-failure calculations are consistent with the occurrence of the 1911 event just 5 years after 1906 if the Calaveras fault was already close to failure before the effects of 1906. We also examine the likelihood that the entire 78 years of relative quiet (only four M ≥6 earthquakes) in the bay area after 1906 is consistent with rate-and-state assumptions, given that the previous 7 decades produced 18 M ≥6 earthquakes. Combinations of rate-and-state variables can be found that are consistent with this pattern of large bay area earthquakes, assuming that the rate of earthquakes in the 7 decades before 1906 would have continued had 1906 not occurred. These results demonstrate that rate-and-state offers a consistent explanation for the 78-year quiescence and the 1911 anomaly, although they do not rule out several alternate explanations.

California↗
USGS1998

Two-way coupling between Vesuvius eruptions and southern Apennine earthquakes, Italy, by elastic stress transfer

During the past 1000 years, eruptions of Vesuvius have often been accompanied by large earthquakes in the Apennines 50–60 km to the northeast. Statistical investigations had shown that earthquakes often preceded eruptions, typically by less than a decade, but did not provide a physical explanation for the correlation. Here, we explore elastic stress interaction between earthquakes and eruptions under the hypothesis that small stress changes can promote events when the Apennine normal faults and the Vesuvius magma body are close to failure. We show that earthquakes can promote eruptions by compressing the magma body at depth and opening suitably oriented near-surface conduits. Voiding the magma body in turns brings these same normal faults closer to Coulomb failure, promoting earthquakes. Such a coupling is strongest if the magma reservoir is a dike oriented normal to the regional extension axis, parallel to the Apennines, and the near-surface conduits and fissures are oriented normal to the Apennines. This preferred orientation suggests that the eruptions issuing from such fissures should be most closely linked in time to Apennine earthquakes. Large Apennine earthquakes since 1400 are calculated to have transferred more stress to Vesuvius than all but the largest eruptions have transferred to Apennine faults, which may explain why earthquakes more commonly lead than follow eruptions. A two-way coupling may thus link earthquakes and Vesuvius eruptions along a 100-km-long set of faults. We test the statistical significance of the earthquake-eruption correlation in the two-way coupling zone, and find a correlation significant at the 95% confidence level.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1998

Waveform inversion of very long period impulsive signals associated with magmatic injection beneath Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii

We use data from broadband seismometers deployed around the summit of Kilauea Volcano to quantify the mechanism associated with a transient in the flow of magma feeding the east rift eruption of the volcano. The transient is marked by rapid inflation of the Kilauea summit peaking at 22 μrad 4.5 hours after the event onset, followed by slow deflation over a period of 3 days. Superimposed on the summit inflation is a series of sawtooth displacement pulses, each characterized by a sudden drop in amplitude lasting 5–10 s followed by an exponential recovery lasting 1–3 min. The sawtooth waveforms display almost identical shapes, suggesting a process involving the repeated activation of a fixed source. The particle motion associated with each sawtooth is almost linear, and its major swing shows compressional motion at all stations. Analyses of semblance and particle motion are consistent with a point source located 1 km beneath the northeast edge of the Halemaumau pit crater. To estimate the source mechanism, we apply a moment tensor inversion to the waveform data, assuming a point source embedded in a homogeneous half-space with compressional and shear wave velocities representative of the average medium properties at shallow depth under Kilauea. Synthetic waveforms are constructed by a superposition of impulse responses for six moment tensor components and three single force components. The origin times of individual impulses are distributed along the time axis at appropriately small, equal intervals, and their amplitudes are determined by least squares. In this inversion, the source time functions of the six tensor and three force components are determined simultaneously. We confirm the accuracy of the inversion method through a series of numerical tests. The results from the inversion show that the waveform data are well explained by a pulsating transport mechanism operating on a subhorizontal crack linking the summit reservoir to the east rift of Kilauea. The crack acts like a buffer in which a batch of fluid (magma and/or gas) accumulates over a period of 1–3 min before being rapidly injected into a larger reservoir (possibly the east rift) over a timescale of 5–10 s. The seismic moment and volume change associated with a typical batch of fluid are approximately 10 14 N m and 3000 m 3 , respectively. Our results also point to the existence of a single force component with amplitude of 10 9 N, which may be explained as the drag force generated by the flow of viscous magma through a narrow constriction in the flow path. The total volume of magma associated with the 4.5-hour-long activation of the pulsating source is roughly 500,000 m 3 in good agreement with the integrated volume flow rate of magma estimated near the eruptive site.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1998

Earthquake triggering by transient and static deformations

Observational evidence for both static and transient near-field and far-field triggered seismicity are explained in terms of a frictional instability model, based on a single degree of freedom spring-slider system and rate- and state-dependent frictional constitutive equations. In this study a triggered earthquake is one whose failure time has been advanced by Δ t (clock advance) due to a stress perturbation. Triggering stress perturbations considered include square-wave transients and step functions, analogous to seismic waves and coseismic static stress changes, respectively. Perturbations are superimposed on a constant background stressing rate which represents the tectonic stressing rate. The normal stress is assumed to be constant. Approximate, closed-form solutions of the rate-and-state equations are derived for these triggering and background loads, building on the work of Dieterich [1992, 1994]. These solutions can be used to simulate the effects of static and transient stresses as a function of amplitude, onset time t 0 , and in the case of square waves, duration. The accuracies of the approximate closed-form solutions are also evaluated with respect to the full numerical solution and t 0 . The approximate solutions underpredict the full solutions, although the difference decreases as t 0 approaches the end of the earthquake cycle. The relationship between Δ t and t 0 differs for transient and static loads: a static stress step imposed late in the cycle causes less clock advance than an equal step imposed earlier, whereas a later applied transient causes greater clock advance than an equal one imposed earlier. For equal Δ t , transient amplitudes must be greater than static loads by factors of several tens to hundreds depending on t 0 . We show that the rate-and-state model requires that the total slip at failure is a constant, regardless of the loading history. Thus a static load applied early in the cycle, or a transient applied at any time, reduces the stress at the initiation of failure, whereas static loads that are applied sufficiently late raise it. Rate-and-state friction predictions differ markedly from those based on Coulomb failure stress changes (ΔCFS) in which Δ t equals the amplitude of the static stress change divided by the background stressing rate. The ΔCFS model assumes a stress failure threshold, while the rate-and-state equations require a slip failure threshold. The complete rate-and-state equations predict larger Δ t than the ΔCFS model does for static stress steps at small t 0 , and smaller Δ t than the ΔCFS model for stress steps at large t 0 . The ΔCFS model predicts nonzero Δ t only for transient loads that raise the stress to failure stress levels during the transient. In contrast, the rate-and-state model predicts nonzero Δ t for smaller loads, and triggered failure may occur well after the transient is finished. We consider heuristically the effects of triggering on a population of faults, as these effects might be evident in seismicity data. Triggering is manifest as an initial increase in seismicity rate that may be followed by a quiescence or by a return to the background rate. Available seismicity data are insufficient to discriminate whether triggered earthquakes are “new” or clock advanced. However, if triggering indeed results from advancing the failure time of inevitable earthquakes, then our modeling suggests that a quiescence always follows transient triggering and that the duration of increased seismicity also cannot exceed the duration of a triggering transient load. Quiescence follows static triggering only if the population of available faults is finite.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1998

Paleomagnetism of the Middle Proterozoic Electra Lake Gabbro, Needle Mountains, southwestern Colorado

The Electra Lake Gabbro is a small 1.435 Ga pluton that intrudes 1.7 to 1.6 Ga gneisses and schists of the Needle Mountains in southwestern Colorado. Paleomagnetic samples were collected from the main phases of the gabbro, diabase dikes, granite, and alaskite dikes that cut the gabbro and from a partially melted zone in gneiss along the southern margin of the pluton. Gabbro, diabase, and some melt zone samples have a single-polarity characteristic magnetization of northeast declination ( D ) and moderate negative inclination ( I ). Demagnetization behavior and rock magnetic characteristics indicate that the remanence is carried by nearly pure magnetite. After correction for the minor west dip of overlying Paleozoic strata, we obtain a mean direction of D = 32.1°, I = −41.9° ( k : = 94, α 95 = 3.3°, N = 21 sites) and a paleomagnetic pole at 21.1°S, 221.1°E, ( K = 89, A 95 = 3.4°). This pole is similar to poles from the Middle Proterozoic Belt Supergroup but is located at a higher southerly latitude than poles from other 1.47–1.44 Ga plutons from North America, most of which plot at equatorial latitudes. The reason for this discrepancy is not clear but may result from a combination of factors, including unrecognized tilting of the gabbro, the failure of this relatively small pluton to fully average paleosecular variation, and uncertainties in the overall reliability of other 1.5–1.4 Ga poles of the North American apparent polar wander path.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1998

Carbon dioxide and helium emissions from a reservoir of magmatic gas beneath Mammoth Mountain, California

Carbon dioxide and helium with isotopic compositions indicative of a magmatic source ( δ 13 C = −4.5 to −5‰, 3 He/ 4 He = 4.5 to 6.7 R A ) are discharging at anomalous rates from Mammoth Mountain, on the southwestern rim of the Long Valley caldera in eastern California. The gas is released mainly as diffuse emissions from normal‐temperature soils, but some gas issues from steam vents or leaves the mountain dissolved in cold groundwater. The rate of gas discharge increased significantly in 1989 following a 6‐month period of persistent earthquake swarms and associated strain and ground deformation that has been attributed to dike emplacement beneath the mountain. An increase in the magmatic component of helium discharging in a steam vent on the north side of Mammoth Mountain, which also began in 1989, has persisted until the present time. Anomalous CO 2 discharge from soils first occurred during the winter of 1990 and was followed by observations of several areas of tree kill and/or heavier than normal needlecast the following summer. Subsequent measurements have confirmed that the tree kills are associated with CO 2 concentrations of 30–90% in soil gas and gas flow rates of up to 31,000 g m −2 d −1 at the soil surface. Each of the tree‐kill areas and one area of CO 2 discharge above tree line occurs in close proximity to one or more normal faults, which may provide conduits for gas flow from depth. We estimate that the total diffuse CO 2 flux from the mountain is approximately 520 t/d, and that 30–50 t/d of CO 2 are dissolved in cold groundwater flowing off the flanks of the mountain. Isotopic and chemical analyses of soil and fumarolic gas demonstrate a remarkable homogeneity in composition, suggesting that the CO 2 and associated helium and excess nitrogen may be derived from a common gas reservoir whose source is associated with some combination of magmatic degassing and thermal metamorphism of metasedimentary rocks. Furthermore, N 2 /Ar ratios and nitrogen isotopic values indicate that the Mammoth Mountain gases are derived from sources separate from those that supply gas to the hydrothermal system within the Long Valley caldera. Various data suggest that the Mammoth Mountain gas reservoir is a large, low‐temperature cap over an isolated hydrothermal system, that it predates the 1989 intrusion, and that it could remain a source of gas discharge for some time.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1998

Strain accumulation rates in the San Francisco Bay area, 1972–1989

Maps of the strain accumulation rate in the San Francisco Bay area have been constructed from trilateration observations extending from about 1972 until the Loma Prieta earthquake in late 1989. The observations were corrected to remove offsets imposed by shallow fault creep and by four M ∼6 earthquakes that occurred in the Bay area during that time interval. The Bay area was divided into 32 contiguous polygons, and the uniform (in both space and time) strain rates that best explain the changes in the corrected (earthquake and shallow fault creep offsets removed) distances within each polygon were calculated. In a coordinate system with the 1 axis directed N58°E and the 2 axis N32°W (perpendicular and parallel to the local tangent to the small circle drawn about the Pacific-Sierra Nevada pole of rotation) the averages of these 32 strain rates (each weighted by the area of the polygon) are ε11=9.2±7.4, ε12=−160.7±4.6, and ε22=8.2±6.2 nanostrain/yr, where extension is reckoned positive and quoted uncertainties are standard deviations. As expected from the Pacific-Sierra Nevada relative plate motion, the overall strain rate is predominantly right-lateral shear across a vertical plane striking N32°W. The net increase in the 12,225 km2 area of the trilateration network is only 212±110 m2/yr, which arises from almost equal extensions in the N32°W and N58°E directions. Within the network the strain rates vary from polygon to polygon. Significant areal dilatation rates are observed in almost ⅓ of the individual polygons and the N32°W extension rates tend to be negative to the west of the Hayward-Rodgers Creek fault trend and positive east of it. The N58E extension rate is positive in 22 out of 32 polygons, a proportion that is significantly larger than would be expected by chance if the N58°E extension rate were zero or negative. The pre-1989 strain accumulation across the eventual site of the Loma Prieta rupture involves fault normal contraction as well as right-lateral shear, consistent with the rupture mechanism.

California↗
USGS1998

Introduction to special section: Stress triggers, stress shadows, and implications for seismic hazard

Many aspects of earthquake mechanics remain an enigma as we enter the closing years of the twentieth century. One potential bright spot is the realization that simple calculations of stress changes may explain some earthquake interactions, just as previous and on going studies of stress changes have begun to explain human-induced seismicity. This paper, which introduces the special section “Stress Triggers, Stress Shadows, and Implications for Seismic Hazard,” reviews many published works and presents a compilation of quantitative earthquake interaction studies from a stress change perspective. This synthesis supplies some clues about certain aspects of earthquake mechanics. It also demonstrates that much work remains before we can understand the complete story of how earthquakes work.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1998

Episodic fluid flow in the Nankai accretionary complex: Timescale, geochemistry, flow rates, and fluid budget

Down-hole geochemical anomalies encountered in active accretionary systems can be used to constrain the timing, rates, and localization of fluid flow. Here we combine a coupled flow and solute transport model with a kinetic model for smectite dehydration to better understand and quantify fluid flow in the Nankai accretionary complex offshore of Japan. Compaction of sediments and clay dehydration provide fluid sources which drive the model flow system. We explicitly include the consolidation rate of underthrust sediments in our calculations to evaluate the impact that variations in this unknown quantity have on pressure and chloride distribution. Sensitivity analysis of steady state pressure solutions constrains bulk and flow conduit permeabilities. Steady state simulations with 30% smectite in the incoming sedimentary sequence result in minimum chloride concentrations at site 808 of 550 m M , but measured chlorinity is as low as 447 m M . We simulate the transient effects of hydrofracture or a strain event by assuming an instantaneous permeability increase of 3–4 orders of magnitude along a flow conduit (in this case the décollement), using steady state results as initial conditions. Transient results with an increase in décollement permeability from 10 −16 m 2 to 10 −13 m 2 and 20% smectite reproduce the observed chloride profile at site 808 after 80–160 kyr. Modeled chloride concentrations are highly sensitive to the consolidation rate of underthrust sediments, such that rapid compaction of underthrust material leads to increased freshening. Pressures within the décollement during transient simulations rise rapidly to a significant fraction of lithostatic and remain high for at least 160 kyr, providing a mechanism for maintaining high permeability. Flow rates at the deformation front for transient simulations are in good agreement with direct measurements, but steady state flow rates are 2–3 orders of magnitude smaller than observed. Fluid budget calculations indicate that nearly 71% of the incoming water in the sediments leaves the accretionary wedge via diffuse flow out the seafloor, 0–5% escapes by focused flow along the décollement, and roughly 1% is subducted.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1998

Seismotectonics of the Loma Prieta, California, region determined from three-dimensional Vp, Vp/Vs, and seismicity

Three-dimensional V p and V p / V s velocity models for the Loma Prieta region were developed from the inversion of local travel time data (21,925 P arrivals and 1,116 S arrivals) from earthquakes, refraction shots, and blasts recorded on 1700 stations from the Northern California Seismic Network and numerous portable seismograph deployments. The velocity and density models and microearthquake hypocenters reveal a complex structure that includes a San Andreas fault extending to the base of the seismogenic layer. A body with high V p extends the length of the rupture and fills the 5 km wide volume between the Loma Prieta mainshock rupture and the San Andreas and Sargent faults. We suggest that this body controls both the pattern of background seismicity on the San Andreas and Sargent faults and the extent of rupture during the mainshock, thus explaining how the background seismicity outlined the along-strike and depth extent of the mainshock rupture on a different fault plane 5 km away. New aftershock focal mechanisms, based on three-dimensional ray tracing through the velocity model, support a heterogeneous postseismic stress field and can not resolve a uniform fault normal compression. The subvertical (or steeply dipping) San Andreas fault and the fault surfaces that ruptured in the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake are both parts of the San Andreas fault zone and this section of the fault zone does not have a single type of characteristic event.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1998

Deformation across the rupture zone of the 1964 Alaska earthquake, 1993–1997

A linear array of 15 geodetic monuments was installed in 1993 across the rupture zone of the 1964 Alaska earthquake ( M w = 9.2). The array extends from Middleton Island (at the edge of the continental shelf and 80 km from the Alaska‐Aleutian trench) to north of Palmer, Alaska (380 km from the trench), in the approximate direction of Pacific‐North American plate convergence (N15.5°W). The array was surveyed in June 1993, May 1995, and June 1997. The changes between surveys are a measure of the deformation of the continental margin across the subduction zone in southern Alaska. Measured relative to the interior of the North American plate, the horizontal velocities on the outer plate margin are parallel to the direction of plate convergence (N15.5°W ) and reach a maximum (58 mm yr −1 ) about 150 km from the trench. Beyond about 300 km from the trench the observed horizontal velocities are small. A narrow (halfwidth 50 km) zone of significant uplift (10 mm yr −1 maximum) is observed about 300 km from the trench, coinciding roughly with the locus of maximum coseismic subsidence associated with the 1964 Alaska earthquake. Although the deformation is roughly described by the conventional model of deformation at a subduction zone (deformation due to virtual back slip on the main thrust zone at the 55 mm yr −1 plate convergence rate), a better fit is given with a 65 mm yr −1 virtual back (normal) slip rate. This higher rate is attributed to continued postseismic relaxation. The model does not explain the relatively high uplift rate and low N15.5°W velocity observed at Middleton Island. That anomalous motion is attributed to continued thrusting on postulated upward trending splays from the subduction zone beneath the island.

Alaska↗
USGS1998

Paleomagnetism of the Miocene intrusive suite of Kidd Creek: Timing of deformation in the Cascade arc, southern Washington

Paleomagnetic study of the intrusive suite of Kidd Creek in the southern Washington Cascades (23 sites in dikes and sills) was undertaken to help determine if these rocks are comagmatic and whether they postdate regional folding of the volcanic arc. Fission track and 40 Ar- 39 Ar age determinations indicate an age of ∼12.7 Ma (middle Miocene) for these rocks. The similarity of normal-polarity characteristic directions for most samples corroborate the available geochemical data indicating that these rocks are most likely comagmatic. Reversed-polarity directions for samples from four sites, however, show that emplacement of Kidd Creek intrusions spanned at least one reversal of the geomagnetic field. The paleomagnetic directions for the dikes and sills fail a fold test at the 99% confidence level indicating that the Kidd Creek rocks postdate regional folding. The mean in situ direction also indicates that the Kidd Creek and older rocks have been rotated 22°±6° clockwise about a vertical or near-vertical axis from the expected Miocene direction. Compression and regional folding of the Cascade arc in southern Washington therefore had ended by ∼12 Ma prior to the onset of deformation resulting in rotation of these rocks.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗