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Techniques for estimating flood-flow frequency for unregulated streams in New Mexico

Equations for estimating flood discharges for exceedance probabilities of 0.50, 0.20, 0.10, 0.04, 0.02, and 0.01 at ungaged sites in New Mexico were developed and updated from streamflow gaging station data through 1982. The 1984 data from selected stations in the southwestern part of the State were also used because of the high discharges that occurred. The State was divided into eight physiographic regions and equations were developed for each region. The logarithms of annual flood peaks for the respective exceedance probabilities were related to logarithms of basin and climatic characteristics. The average standard error of estimate of a flood peak for an exceedance probability of 0.01 ranged from 44% to 81%, a significant improvement over previous studies. New techniques for weighting independent estimates of flood discharges at gaging stations by each estimate 's variance are presented. The variances are the squares of the standard errors. Standard errors of the estimated flood discharges for the exceedance probabilities are presented for all streamflow gaging stations. Flood frequency characteristics at 219 gaging stations are also included. (Author 's abstract)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Characterization of streamflow and nutrient occurrence in the upper White River Basin, Colorado, 1980–2020

In 2016, Colorado Parks and Wildlife identified filamentous algae collected from the main stem White River as Cladophora glomerata , a pervasive nuisance aquatic alga. Excessive levels of filamentous algae can compromise aesthetic quality, limit recreational activities, and have negative effects on aquatic life including strong fluctuations in dissolved oxygen levels and a reduction in overall biodiversity. To increase understanding of the biology of the upper White River Basin in Colorado, identify potential factors promoting or limiting nuisance algal abundance, and outline information to aid in the understanding and protection of water resources, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the White River and Douglas Creek Conservation Districts and the White River Algae Technical Advisory Group, initiated a study to collect and analyze physical, chemical, and biological information for the upper White River Basin. The report describes long-term changes and spatial variations in streamflow and nutrient concentrations and loads in the upper White River Basin and identifies possible nutrient sources in the basin. Long-term streamflow and nutrient data indicate that conditions in the upper White River Basin have become more favorable to benthic algae over varying timescales. Upward trends in total phosphorus concentrations and loads were found at three sites across the basin from 2000 to 2020. Total phosphorus loads increased around 50 percent, ranging from 18 to 48 pounds per year. Annual estimated concentrations of total phosphorus from 2005 to 2020 were above algal-specific nutrient criteria at the North Fork White River at Buford, Colo., indicating that phosphorus concentrations at this site likely promote algal growth. Discrete concentrations of total phosphorus exceeded algal-specific nutrient criteria on the South Fork and main stem White River during the summer season, though less frequently than samples collected from the North Fork White River. Nitrogen to phosphorus molar ratios collected from July to September indicate movement from colimitation (10–22) to nitrogen limited (less than 13) conditions at the North Fork White River at Buford, Colo. and the South Fork White River at Buford, Colo. starting in 2012. The magnitude of trends in phosphorus loads were generally greater than trends in concentrations across all sites, indicating that the largest changes in concentrations occurred during greater streamflow periods. At White River above Coal Creek, near Meeker, Colo., significant downward trends in streamflow were found in August and September for mean streamflow (15 and 14 percent per decade, respectively) and 7-day minimum streamflows (23 and 22 percent per decade, respectively). Significant downward trends in annual 7-day minimum streamflows of 24 percent per decade, or 66 percent over the 40-year period of analysis, were also observed. Though not significant based on 90-percent confidence intervals, downward trends in 1-day maximum and mean streamflows in May and June and corresponding increases in April may indicate a shift toward earlier snowmelt runoff, as observed across western North America and the Colorado River Basin. Alteration of the annual hydrograph can influence factors that influence algae including nutrient input and dilution potential, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, light availability, and physical disturbance. Results from a synoptic-style sampling identified the lower North Fork White River subbasin as a large source of phosphorus to the downstream system. Large increases in phosphorus loads were observed below Marvine Creek. Synoptic samples and samples collected during spring and summer of 2019 and 2020 also show large increases in total nitrogen, orthophosphate, and total phosphorus occurring at the furthest three downstream sites on the White River. To further evaluate sources of nitrogen in the upper White River Basin, the dual isotopic composition of nitrate was compared across four sites. The isotopic compositions of nitrate were all within the expected range of typical soil-derived nitrate, though the same values can also be derived from a mixture of agricultural fertilizer and manure or septic sources.

Colorado↗

Occurrence of isoxaflutole, acetamide, and triazine herbicides and their degradation products in 10 Iowa rivers draining to the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers, 2004

During 2004, a study to document the occurrence of herbicides and herbicide degradation products was conducted for 10 major Iowa rivers draining to the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers. Seventy-five water-quality samples were collected to measure isoxaflutole, acetamide, and triazine herbicides and their herbicide degradation products. An analytical method to measure isoxaflutole and its degradation products, diketonitrile and benzoic acid, was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey Organic Geochemistry Research Laboratory in Lawrence, Kansas, using vacuum manifold solid-phase extraction and liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry/mass spectrometry and is described in this report. Isoxaflutole, a low application rate preemergence herbicide for control of annual broadleaf weeds, is used extensively in Iowa. Findings from the study documented in this report indicate that isoxaflutole was designed to degrade quickly to diketonitrile, which appears to be more stable, and then to benzoic acid. Of the 75 samples collected to measure isoxaflutole, there were four detections of isoxaflutole, 53 detections of diketonitrile, and 41 detections of benzoic acid. Also, results of acetamide and triazine water-quality samples correlate with past studies, which indicate that herbicide degradation products are detected more frequently and often at higher concentrations in surface water than their parent compounds. In addition to analysis of isoxaflutole and its degradation products, samples were analyzed by the USGS National Water-Quality Laboratory schedule 2001 for about 52 pesticides and their degradation products.

Iowa↗

Analysis of the transport of sediment by the Suncook River in Epsom, Pembroke, and Allenstown, New Hampshire, after the May 2006 flood

During May 13-16, 2006, rainfall in excess of 8.8 inches flooded central and southern New Hampshire. On May 15, 2006, a breach in a bank of the Suncook River in Epsom, New Hampshire, caused the river to follow a new path. In order to assess and predict the effect of the sediment in, and the subsequent flooding on, the river and flood plain, a study by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) characterizing sediment transport in the Suncook River was undertaken in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services (NHDES). The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model was used to simulate flow and the transport of noncohesive sediments in the Suncook River from the upstream corporate limit of Epsom to the river's confluence with the Merrimack River in the Village of Suncook (Allenstown and Pembroke, N.H.), a distance of approximately 16 miles. In addition to determining total sediment loads, analyses in this study reflect flooding potentials for selected recurrence intervals that are based on the Suncook River streamgage flow data (streamgage 01089500) and on streambed elevations predicted by HEC-RAS for the end of water year 2010 (September 30, 2010) in the communities of Epsom, Pembroke, and Allenstown. This report presents changes in streambed and water-surface elevations predicted by the HEC-RAS model using data through the end of water year 2010 for the 50-, 10-, 2-, 1-, 0.2-percent annual exceedence probabilities (2-, 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence-interval floods, respectively), calculated daily and annual total sediment loads, and a determination of aggrading and degrading stream reaches. The model was calibrated and evaluated for a 400-day span from May 8, 2008 through June 11, 2009; these two dates coincided with field collection of stream cross-sectional elevation data. Seven sediment-transport functions were evaluated in the model with the Laursen (Copeland) sediment-transport function best describing the sediment load, transport behavior, and changes in streambed elevation for the specified spatial and temporal conditions of the 400-day calibration period. Simulation results from the model and field-collected sediment data indicate that, downstream of the avulsion channel, for the average daily mean flow during the study period, approximately 100 to 400 tons per day of sediment (varying with daily mean flow) was moving past the Short Falls Road Bridge over the Suncook River in Epsom, while approximately 0.05 to 0.5 tons per day of sediment was moving past the Route 28 bridge in Pembroke and Allenstown, and approximately 1 to 10 tons per day was moving past the Route 3 bridge in Pembroke and Allenstown. Changes in water-surface elevation that the model predicted for the end of water year 2010 to be a result of changes in streambed elevation ranged from a mean increase of 0.20 feet (ft) for the 50-percent annual exceedence-probability flood (2-year recurrence-interval flood) due to an average thalweg increase of 0.88 ft between the Short Falls Road Bridge and the Buck Street Dams in Pembroke and Allenstown to a mean decrease of 0.41 ft for the 50-percent annual exceedence-probability flood due to an average thalweg decrease of 0.49 ft above the avulsion in Epsom. An analysis of shear stress (force created by a fluid acting on sediment particles) was undertaken to determine potential areas of erosion and deposition. Based on the median grain size (d50) and shear stress analysis, the study found that in general, for floods greater than the 50-percent annual exceedence probability flood, the shear stress in the streambed is greater than the critical shear stress in much of the river study reach. The result is an expectation of streambed-sediment movement and erosion even at high exceedence-probability events, pending although the stream ultimately attains equilibrium through stream-stabilization measures or the adjustment of the river over time. The potential for aggradation in the Suncook River is greatest in the reach downstream of the avulsion. Specifically, these reaches are (1) downstream of the former sand pit from adjacent to Round Pond to downstream of the flood chute at the large meander bends, and (2) downstream of the Short Falls Road Bridge to approximately 3,800 ft upstream of the Route 28 bridge. The potential for degradation-net lowering of the streambed-is greatest for the reach upstream of the avulsion to the Route 4 bridge.

New Hampshire↗

Model methodology for estimating pesticide concentration extremes based on sparse monitoring data

This report describes a new methodology for using sparse (weekly or less frequent observations) and potentially highly censored pesticide monitoring data to simulate daily pesticide concentrations and associated quantities used for acute and chronic exposure assessments, such as the annual maximum daily concentration. The new methodology is based on a statistical model that expresses log-transformed daily pesticide concentration in terms of a seasonal wave, flow-related variability, long-term trend, and serially correlated errors. Methods are described for estimating the model parameters, generating conditional simulations of daily pesticide concentration given sparse (weekly or less frequent) and potentially highly censored observations, and estimating concentration extremes based on the conditional simulations. The model can be applied to datasets with as few as 3 years of record, as few as 30 total observations, and as few as 10 uncensored observations. The model was applied to atrazine, carbaryl, chlorpyrifos, and fipronil data for U.S. Geological Survey pesticide sampling sites with sufficient data for applying the model. A total of 112 sites were analyzed for atrazine, 38 for carbaryl, 34 for chlorpyrifos, and 33 for fipronil. The results are summarized in this report; and, R functions, described in this report and provided in an accompanying model archive, can be used to fit the model parameters and generate conditional simulations of daily concentrations for use in investigations involving pesticide exposure risk and uncertainty.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Water resources data for Idaho, water year 1969; Part 2, Water quality records

Water-resources investigations of the U.S. Geological Survey include the collection of water-quality data on the chemical and physical characteristics of surface- and ground-water supplies of the Nation. These data for the 1969 water year for the quality of surface waters in Idaho are presented in this report. Data for a few water quality stations in bordering States are also included. The data were collected by the Water Resources Division of the U.S. Geological Survey under the direction of W. L. Burnham, district chief, Boise, Idaho. Water-quality information is presented for chemical quality, water temperatures, and fluvial sediment. Chemical quality includes concentrations of individual dissolved constituents and certain properties or characteristics such as hardness, sodium adsorption ratio, specific conductance, and pH. Water temperature data represent once-daily observations except for stations where a continuous temperature recorder furnishes information from which daily maximums and minimums are obtained. Fluvial-sediment information is given for suspended-sediment discharges and concentrations and for particle size distribution of suspended sediment and bed material. The Geological Survey, from 1941 through 1965, published an annual series of water-supply papers, "Quality of Surface Waters of the United States," which contained the chemical-quality, temperature, and suspended-sediment data of the water. Each volume covered an area whose boundaries coincided with those of certain natural drainage areas. The records for Idaho are contained in Parts 9-14 of the water-supply paper series. These publications are available in most public libraries. Beginning with the 1964 water year, water quality records for surface and ground water have been released by the Geological Survey on a state boundary basis. This report is primarily for local and immediate use, and its distribution is limited. These records will be published later in Geological Survey water-supply papers.

Idaho↗

Ground-water resources and the hydrologic effects of petroleum occurrence and development, Warren County, Northwestern Pennsylvania

Most of the northern half of Warren County is in the Northwestern Glaciated Plateau Section of the Appalachian Plateaus Physiographic Province. The remainder of the county is in the High Plateau Section. The glacial outwash sand and gravel hydrogeologic unit is the most extensively used unconsolidated unit for water supply in Warren County because it is capable of yielding large amounts of water to wells and it is situated in populated valleys. The median well yield for 47 specific-capacity tests was 25 gal/min (gallons per minute); well yields ranged from 2 to 1,600 gal/min. Acceptable well yields for domestic supply also are available from other unconsolidated hydrogeologic units including alluvium, colluvium, glacial drift, ice-contact stratified sand and gravel, and undifferentiated alluvium and glacial lacustrine. The median well yields during specific-capacity tests of wells in these five hydrogeologic units ranged from 8 to 18 gal/min. A comparison of the median specific capacities for wells in the unconsolidated and bedrock hydrogeologic units indicates that wells completed in the outwash sand and gravel hydrogeologic unit had the highest median specific capacity of 6.0 (gal/min)/ft (gallons per minute per foot); specific capacities for wells completed in the outwash sand and gravel unit ranged from 0.14 to 300 (gal/min)/ft. For wells completed in the bedrock hydrogeologic units, their corresponding median specific capacities are Pottsville Group, 0.5 (gal/min)/ft; Shenango Formation, 0.44 (gal/min)/ft; Cuyahoga Formation, 0.24 (gal/min)/ft; Knapp Formation, 0.45 (gal/min)/ft; Corry Sandstone through Riceville Formation, 0.67 (gal/min)/ft; Riceville Formation, 1.5 (gal/min)/ft; Oswayo Formation, 0.07 (gal/min)/ft; Venango Formation, 1.0 (gal/min)/ft; and Chadakoin Formation, 0.71 (gal/min)/ft. Annual precipitation at Warren for the years 1984-87 was above the long-term mean. The 4-year average of the annual hydrologic balance for 1984 indicated 40 percent of the precipitation was lost to evapotranspiration. Ground-water discharge, commonly defined as base flow, accounted for about 29 percent of precipitation, and surface runoff made up 31 percent. During 1984-87, ground-water discharge made up from 47 to 50 percent of total runoff or streamflow. In 1990, ground-water withdrawals made up only 1.3 percent [13.8 Mgal/d (million gallons per day)] of the total withdrawals for the county. However, ground water is the predominant source for domestic, municipal, and industrial water supplies in Warren County outside of the larger cities.

Pennsylvania↗

Water levels and water quality in the Sparta-Memphis aquifer (middle Claiborne aquifer) in Arkansas, spring-summer 2009

The U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Arkansas Natural Resources Commission and the Arkansas Geological Survey has monitored water levels in the Sparta Sand of Claiborne Group and Memphis Sand of Claiborne Group (herein referred to as the Sparta Sand and the Memphis Sand, respectively) since the 1920s. Groundwater withdrawals have increased while water levels have declined since monitoring was initiated. Herein, aquifers in the Sparta Sand and Memphis Sand will be referred to as the Sparta-Memphis aquifer throughout Arkansas. During the spring of 2009, 324 water levels were measured in wells completed in the Sparta-Memphis aquifer and used to produce a regional potentiometric-surface map. During the summer of 2009, 64 water-quality samples were collected and measured for specific conductance, temperature, and pH from wells completed in the Sparta-Memphis aquifer. The regional direction of groundwater flow in the Sparta-Memphis aquifer is generally to the south-southeast in the northern half of Arkansas and to the east and south in the southern half of Arkansas, away from the outcrop area except where affected by large groundwater withdrawals. The highest and lowest water-level altitudes measured in the Sparta-Memphis aquifer were 325 feet above and 157 feet below National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929, respectively. Eight depressions (generally represented by closed contours) are located in the following counties: Bradley; Ashley; Calhoun; Cleveland; Columbia; Arkansas, Jefferson, Lincoln, and Prairie; Cross and Poinsett; and Union. Two large depressions shown on the 2009 potentiometric-surface map, centered in Jefferson and Union Counties, are the result of large withdrawals for industrial, irrigation, or public supply. The depression centered in Jefferson County deepened and expanded in recent years into Arkansas and Prairie Counties. The area enclosed within the 40-foot contour on the 2009 potentiometric-surface map has expanded south to the Drew County line and moved west from the intersection of Arkansas, Jefferson, and Lincoln Counties when compared with the 2007 potentiometric-surface map. To the north, east, and west, the 40-foot contour is comparable to the 2007 potentiometric-surface map. The lowest water-level altitude measurement during 2009 in the center of the depression in Union County represents a rise of 42 feet since 2003. The area enclosed by the lowest altitude contour, 140 feet below National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929, on the 2009 potentiometric-surface map is about half the area on the 2007 potentiometric-surface map. In the depression in western Poinsett and Cross Counties, the 140-foot contour extended north to the Poinsett-Craighead County line and south across Cross County about two-thirds of the distance to the St. Francis County line. A water-level difference map was constructed using water-level measurements made during 2005 and 2009 from 309 wells. The difference in water level between 2005 and 2009 ranged from -74.6 to 60.2 feet. Areas with a general rise in water levels occur in central Columbia County, southern Jefferson County, and most of Union County. In the area around west-central Union County, water levels rose as much as 60.2 feet with water levels in 18 wells rising 20 feet or more, representing an average annual rise of 5 feet or more. Water levels generally declined throughout most of the rest of Arkansas. Hydrographs were constructed using a minimum of 25 years of water-level measurements at each of 206 wells. During the period 1985–2009, mean annual water levels rose in Calhoun, Columbia, Lafayette, and Union Counties, about 1.3 feet per year (ft/yr), 0.2 ft/yr, 0.1 ft/yr, and 0.6 ft/yr, respectively. Mean annual water-level declines between 0.0 and 2.3 ft/yr occurred in all other counties. In western Arkansas County, water-level altitudes in a continuously monitored well declined 60 feet during the irrigation season (April to September). Specific conductance ranged from 43 microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees Celsius (μS/cm) in Ouachita County to 1,230 μS/cm in Phillips County. The mean specific conductance was 392 μS/cm. Although there is a regional increase in specific conductance to the east and south, specific conductance values greater than 700 μS/cm occurred in samples from wells in Arkansas, Ashley, Monroe, Phillips, and Union Counties.

Arkansas↗

Flood-inundation maps for the North Platte River at Scottsbluff and Gering, Nebraska, 2018

Digital flood-inundation maps for an 8.8-mile reach of the North Platte River, from 1.5 miles upstream from the Highway 92 bridge to 3 miles downstream from the Highway 71 bridge in Scottsbluff County, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Cities of Scottsbluff and Gering, Nebraska. The flood-inundation maps, which can be accessed through the Flood Inundation Mapping (FIM) Program website at https://www.usgs.gov/mission-areas/water-resources/science/flood-inundation-mapping-fim-program?qt-science_center_objects=0#qt-science_center_objects , depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage on the North Platte River at Scottsbluff, Nebr. (station number 06680500). Near-real-time stages at this streamgage may be obtained on the internet from the USGS National Water Information System at https://doi.org/10.5066/F7P55KJN or from the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (site SBRN1) at https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=cys&gage=sbrn1 . Flood profiles were computed for the stream reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The model was calibrated by using the current (2018) stage-discharge relation at the North Platte River at Scottsbluff, Nebr., streamgage. The hydraulic model was then used to compute 10 water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot (ft) intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from 9 ft, or near bankfull, to 18 ft, which exceeds the stage that corresponds to the estimated 1-percent annual exceedance probability flood (100-year recurrence interval flood). The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model derived from light detection and ranging data having a 0.6-ft root mean square error and 2-ft horizontal resolution resampled to a 6-ft grid to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps, along with internet information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage, may provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for postflood recovery efforts.

Nebraska↗

Magnitude and frequency of floods for rural streams in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, 2017—Results

Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are an important part of the framework for hydraulic-structure design and flood-plain management in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Annual peak flows measured at U.S. Geological Survey streamgages are used to compute flood‑frequency estimates at those streamgages. However, flood‑frequency estimates also are needed at ungaged stream locations. A process known as regionalization was used to develop regression equations to estimate the magnitude and frequency of floods at ungaged locations. A multistate approach was used to update estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods in rural, ungaged basins in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Annual peak-flow data through September 2017 were analyzed for 965 streamgages with 10 or more years of data on rural streams in Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and adjacent parts of Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, and Virginia. Flood‑frequency estimates of the 50‑, 20‑, 10‑, 4‑, 2‑, 1‑, 0.5‑, and 0.2‑percent annual exceedance probability streamflows, which correspond to flood-recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years, respectively, were computed for the 965 streamgages following national guidelines. As part of the computation of flood‑frequency estimates for the streamgages, an updated value for the regional skew coefficient (0.048) was developed using a Bayesian generalized least squares regression model. The new regional skew has a mean square error or average variance of prediction of 0.092. Additionally, basin characteristics for these stations were computed using a geographical information system. Exploratory analyses on the 965 streamgages confirmed the five hydrologic regions for Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina defined in a previous rural flood‑frequency study. From the 965 streamgages, streamgages with 30 or more years of record were used to complete a peak-flow trend analysis. Of the 965 streamgages, 164 streamgages were found to be redundant and were excluded from the regional regression analyses. Data from the remaining 801 streamgages (292 in Georgia, 75 in South Carolina, 303 in North Carolina, 15 in Alabama, 12 in Florida, 39 in Tennessee, and 65 in Virginia) were used in a regional regression analysis relating basin characteristics to flood‑frequency estimates. This analysis, based on generalized least squares regression, was used to develop a set of predictive equations to estimate the 50‑, 20‑, 10‑, 4‑, 2‑, 1‑, 0.5‑, and 0.2‑percent annual exceedance probability streamflows for rural, ungaged basins in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. The final set of predictive equations are all functions of drainage area and percentage of the drainage basin within each of the five hydrologic regions. Average errors of prediction for these regression equations range from 35.8 to 44.4 percent. Flood‑frequency estimates also were computed for 72 regulated (for example, a streamgage where flow is altered by a dam or weir) streamgages in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina with 20 or more years of post-regulation record using data through water year 2019. The water year is the annual period from October 1 through September 30 and is designated by the year in which the period ends. Of the 72 regulated streamgages, 18 had pre-regulated periods of record that also were analyzed as part of this study. Flow adjustments were applied to historic peaks and large floods from the pre-regulated period, if available, for use in the post-regulation frequency analysis. Estimates of large floods provide valuable information in frequency analysis and, thus, were included in the post-regulation frequency analysis.

Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina↗

Simulation of flow and effects of best-management practices in the upper Seco Creek basin, south-central Texas, 1991-98

The Hydrological Simulation Program— FORTRAN model was used to assess the effects of two best-management practices—brush management (removal of woody species locally known as cedar) and weather modification (rainfall enhancement)—on selected hydrologic processes in six subbasins that compose the upper Seco Creek Basin in south-central Texas. A parameter set for use with the model was developed to simulate surface-water-budget components for the six gaged subbasins. Simulation of brush management, represented by decreases in simulated evapotranspiration of 5 to 6 percent, resulted in increases of 1 to 47 percent in annual runoff and increases of 14 to 48 percent in surface runoff for the six subbasins. Simulation of weather modification, represented by a 10-percent increase in rainfall totals and intensities, resulted in increases of 5 to 6 percent in evapotranspiration, increases of 2 to 92 percent in annual runoff, and increases of 36 to 101 percent in surface runoff. Rainfall and runoff data for the study were collected during January 1, 1991–September 30, 1998. Data from 60 storms were used for the simulations. The model was calibrated with data from 33 storms (in two subbasins) and tested with data from 27 storms (in four subbasins). Twenty-one pervious land segments were defined for the study on the basis of geology and land cover. An error analysis and a sensitivity analysis were done on each subbasin, and the results were used to develop the final parameter set.

Texas↗

Methods for estimating selected low-flow frequency statistics and mean annual flow for ungaged locations on streams in Alabama

Streamflow data and statistics are vitally important for proper protection and management of the water quality and water quantity of Alabama streams. Such data and statistics are generally available at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations, also referred to as streamgages or stations, but are often needed at ungaged stream locations. To address this need, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with numerous Alabama State agencies and organizations, developed regional regression equations for estimating selected low-flow frequency statistics and mean annual flow for ungaged locations on streams in Alabama that are not substantially affected by tides, regulation, diversions, or other anthropogenic influences. A small percentage of the streamgages included in this study experience zero flows during certain periods; thus, the final low-flow frequency regression equations were developed by using weighted left-censored regression analyses to analyze the flow data in an unbiased manner, with weights based on number of years of record. The equations developed include the annual minimum 1- and 7-day average streamflows with a 10-year recurrence interval (referred to as the 1Q10 and 7Q10 flows), the annual minimum 7-day average streamflow with a 2-year recurrence interval (referred to as the 7Q2 flow), and the mean annual flow using data from 174 streamgages from Alabama and surrounding States. For the 1Q10, 7Q2, and 7Q10 low-flow frequency statistics, the regional regression equations are functions of drainage area, streamflow-variability index, mean annual precipitation, and percentage of the drainage basin located in the Piedmont and Southeastern Plains ecoregions. The mean annual flow regression equation is a function of drainage area, mean annual precipitation, and percentage of the drainage basin located in the Southeastern Plains ecoregion. For the mean annual flow regression equation, the average standard error of estimate was 11.2 percent. For the selected low-flow frequency equations, the average standard errors of estimate ranged from 18.1 to 38.8 percent. The regional regression equations developed from this investigation have been incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats application for Alabama. StreamStats ( https://streamstats.usgs.gov/ss/ ) is a web-based geographic information system application that delineates drainage basins at selected stream locations and then generates the needed basin characteristics for available regional regression equations. Along with the low-flow frequency equations developed in this investigation, the StreamStats application also has regional regression equations for estimating flood-frequency statistics at locations on rural and urban streams in Alabama.

Alabama↗

Incipient bed-movement and flood-frequency analysis using hydrophones to estimate flushing flows on the upper Colorado River, Colorado, 2019

In 2019, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Upper Colorado River Wild and Scenic Stakeholder Group, studied the magnitude and recurrence interval of streamflow (discharge) needed to initiate bed movement of gravel-sized and finer sediment in a segment of the Colorado River in Colorado to better understand sediment movement and its relation to flow regimes of the river. The study area extended from the confluence of the Blue and Colorado Rivers near Kremmling, Colorado, downstream to the confluence of the Eagle and Colorado Rivers near Dotsero, Colo. Bed movement occurred more frequently and at lower streamflows from State Bridge to Catamount Bridge compared to the study area upstream from State Bridge. As a result, the flushing flow was characterized in the study area using two definitions: the “upstream flushing flow” for locations above State Bridge and the “downstream flushing flow” for locations below State Bridge. Acoustic data from stationary hydrophones continuously deployed in the spring and summer of 2019 and longitudinal hydrophone acoustic profiles manually collected in summer 2019 were used to identify the streamflow needed for incipient gravel-bed movement and establish flushing flows defined for this study. The upstream flushing flow was defined as 3,000 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s) at streamgage 09058000 Colorado River near Kremmling, Colo. (the Kremmling streamgage) based on the underwater acoustic data from the downstream location at the Radium stationary site (2,950 ft 3 /s at the Kremmling streamgage which was rounded to 3,000 ft 3 /s). The downstream flushing flow was defined as 2,400 ft 3 /s at the Kremmling streamgage or 3,100 ft 3 /s at streamgage 09060799 Colorado River at Catamount Bridge, Colo. (the Catamount Bridge streamgage) based on the more conservative streamflow associated with the flushing flow defined using underwater acoustic data from the downstream location at the above Catamount Bridge stationary site (2,310 ft 3 /s at the Kremmling streamgage which was rounded to 2,400 ft 3 /s and 3,040 ft 3 /s at the Catamount Bridge streamgage which was rounded to 3,100 ft 3 /s). The annual series of peak-streamflow data at the Kremmling streamgage were used to estimate annual exceedance probability (AEP) streamflows to compare to the flushing flow. Results from the Denver Water Platte and Colorado Simulation Model were used to generate daily peak-streamflows for a future conditions scenario provided for this report. The upstream flushing flow of approximately 3,000 ft 3 /s at the Kremmling streamgage has an AEP near 0.50 (2-year return period) depending on the period of historical record and an AEP near 0.43 (2.33-year return period) for the future period. The downstream flushing flow of approximately 2,400 ft 3 /s at the Kremmling streamgage has an AEP near 0.67 (1.5-year return period) depending on the period of historical record and an AEP near 0.67 (1.5-year return period) for the future period.

Colorado↗

Low-flow characteristics of Wisconsin streams at sewage-treatment plants and industrial plants

Low-flow characteristics of Wisconsin streams at 397 sewage-treatment plants and 143 industrial plants in 30 river basins are presented in this report. The low-flow characteristics are the annual minimum 7-day mean flow below which the flow will fall on the average of once in 2 years (Q 7,2 ) and the annual minimum 7-day mean flow below which the flow will fall on the average of once in 10 years (Q 7, 10 ). The low-flow characteristics at most sewage-treatment and industrial plants (project stations) were determined by correlating base-flow measurements at the project stations with the concurrent daily mean flow at continuous-record gaging stations in the area. The Q 7, 2 and Q 7,10 discharges determined by a frequency analysis at the continuous-record gaging stations were used to estimate the Q 7,2 and Q 7,10 at the project stations. For some project stations the low-flow characteristics also were determined by frequency analysis at nearby continuous-record gaging stations or correlation analysis at nearby low-flow partial-record stations. The Q 7, 2 values ranged from 0 to 3,770 ft 3 /s and Q 7, 10 values ranged from 2,790 ft 3 /s. The accuracy of the estimated low-flow characteristics is evaluated according to the type and amount of data used to determine the low-flow characteristics. The accuracy determined by the standard error of estimate for the 10-year low flow (SE 7, 10 )) ranged from an average of 18 percent at continuous-record gaging stations to an average of h6 percent when only three base-flow measurements were available.

Wisconsin↗

Groundwater conditions during 2009 and changes in groundwater levels from 1984 to 2009, Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System, Washington, Oregon, and Idaho

Groundwater elevations in three basalt units and one unconsolidated hydrogeologic unit in the Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System were measured and evaluated to provide a regional overview of groundwater conditions in spring 2009. Water levels for the Saddle Mountains unit, the Wanapum unit, the Grande Ronde unit, and for the overlying Overburden unit were measured in 1,752 wells during spring 2009 by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and 10 other Federal, State, Tribal, and local agencies, including 66 wells located and measured by the USGS specifically for this study. These data were analyzed to determine the presence of spatial correlation of groundwater levels with distance and direction from each other. Groundwater flow in the Palouse Slope structural region showed evidence of being more continuous relative to groundwater flow in the Yakima Fold Belt, where the geologic complexity may contribute to compartmentalization of groundwater flow. This information was used to interpolate the generalized groundwater elevations for each of the basalt hydrogeologic units and to provide information on regional flow. Water-level change maps were constructed for the three basalt hydrogeologic units and the Overburden (unconsolidated) unit. Groundwater levels measured in spring 1984 and 2009 in 470 wells were compared. Small to moderate groundwater-level declines were measured in most wells, although declines greater than 100 ft and as great as 300 ft were measured in many wells. Essentially unchanged groundwater levels were measured in other wells. Of the wells measured in 1984 and 2009, water levels declined in 83 percent of the wells, and declines greater than 25 ft were measured in 29 percent of all wells. The groundwater-level changes were greatest in the deeper hydrogeologic units. Mean groundwater-level changes ranged from a 7 ft decline for the Overburden unit to a 51 ft decline for the Grande Ronde unit. The average annual rates of groundwater-level change for the 25-year period ranged from a 0.3 ft/yr decline for the Overburden unit to a 2.0 ft/yr decline for the Grande Ronde unit. Groundwater level declines were identified throughout the Columbia Plateau, but areas with large and widespread declines were located in the central northern part of the study area, in parts of the Yakima River basin in Washington, in the Pullman-Moscow area in Washington and Idaho, and in parts of the Umatilla River basin in Oregon. These declines are in areas known to rely heavily on groundwater for irrigation and other uses.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗

Use of a numerical groundwater-flow model and projected climate scenarios to simulate the effects of future climate conditions on base flow for reach 1 of the Washita River alluvial aquifer and Foss Reservoir storage, western Oklahoma

To better understand the relation between climate variability and future groundwater resources in reach 1 of the Washita River alluvial aquifer and Foss Reservoir in western Oklahoma, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, used a previously published numerical groundwater-flow model and climate-model data to investigate changes in base flow and reservoir storage by evaluating three scenarios. The three projected climate scenarios were (1) a central-tendency scenario, (2) a warmer/drier scenario, and (3) a less-warm/wetter scenario. To estimate future base flow and groundwater availability in western Oklahoma, specifically in reach 1 of the Washita River alluvial aquifer, downscaled climate-model data from 231 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) projections coupled with a previously published numerical groundwater-flow model were used to compare the effects of different climate scenarios on the aquifer. Changes in base flow and groundwater-level elevations during a 30-year baseline scenario (1985–2014) and the three 30-year projected climate scenarios (2050–79) under central-tendency, warmer/drier, and less-warm/wetter climatic conditions were assessed by using the calibrated model. In the simulations, the amount of base flow and reservoir storage declined in the central-tendency and warmer/drier scenarios compared to the amount of base flow and reservoir storage under historical climatic conditions (baseline scenario). Mean annual change in reservoir storage decreased from the baseline scenario the most in the warmer/drier scenario, followed by the central-tendency scenario, but increased in the less-warm/wetter scenario compared to the baseline scenario. At the end of the simulation period (2079), the largest magnitude differences in groundwater-level elevations in all three projected climate scenarios relative to the baseline scenario occurred upstream from Foss Reservoir. Results from incorporating downscaled climate projections into localized numerical groundwater-flow models can highlight potential future changes in and implications for groundwater resources and availability.

Oklahoma↗

Frequency analysis of Illinois floods using observed and synthetic streamflow records

Equations, applicable Statewide, for estimating flood magnitudes having recurrence intervals ranging from 2 to 500 years for unregulated rural streams, with drainage areas ranging from 9.02 to 10,000 square miles (0.05 to 25,900 sqiiare kilometers), were derived by multiple regression an. A rainfall-runoff model was used in the synthesis of long-term annual peak data for each of 54 small watersheds (drainage areas less than 10.2 nii2, 26.4 km 2). Synthetic freqeency curves generated from five long-term precipitation stations were combined into one synthetic curve and then this synthetic curve was combined with the observed station frequency curve to derae the station frequency curve. Synthetic data from the 54 small streams, observed data at 33 small streams, and observed data at 154 large streams were used in the analyses. The most significant independent variables in the regression analysis for estimating flood peaks on Illinois streams were drainage area, slope, rainfall intensity, and an areal factor.

Illinois↗

Ground-water resources of the alluvial aquifers in northeastern Larimer County, Colorado

Ground water is a source of municipal, domestic, stock, and irrigation supply for most of northeastern Larimer County, Colo. A study of the alluvial aquifers in the northeastern part of the county was conducted to determine volume of water in storage, rate and location of ground-water withdrawals, and chemical quality of the water with particular attention to dissolved solids, hardness, sulfate, and selenium. There are 251 large-capacity wells in the study area. Well yields range from about 80 gpm (gallons per minute) to a little over 1,800 gpm. Total volume of water in storage is about 133,000 acre-feet--32 ,000 acre-feet in the alluvium of Buckeye terrace and 101,000 acre-feet in the valley-fill aquifer associated with Boxelder Creek. Ground-water withdrawals for irrigation are about 25,000 acre-feet annually. The municipal wells pumped 210 acre-feet in 1974. The factors affecting ground-water quality are the quality of applied irrigation water, the amount of water lost to evapotranspiration during irrigation, and, to a lesser degree, solution of soluble material in the alluvium and in the bedrock at the base of the alluvium. Ground water at the north end of the Buckeye terrace contains only about 300 mg/liter dissolved solids. Recharge is from surface water containing less than 90 mg/liter dissolved solids. Concentrations of all constituents increase downgradient to the south due to solution and evaporative concentration. (Woodard-USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗