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USGS2022

Ungulate migration in a changing climate—An initial assessment of climate impacts, management priorities, and science needs

Executive Summary Migratory behavior among ungulates in the Western United States occurs in response to changing forage quality and quantity, weather patterns, and predation risk. As snow melts and vegetation green-up begins in late spring and early summer, many migratory ungulates leave their winter range and move to higher elevation summer ranges to access high-quality forage and areas with vegetative cover for protection during fawning. Ungulates remain on these ranges until the fall when increasing snowfall and decreasing temperatures trigger them to migrate back to their lower elevation winter ranges. While researchers have begun to assess the effects of physical barriers such as roads and energy infrastructure on migration, less attention has been paid to understanding how changing climate conditions might affect ungulate movements and range habitats. Does earlier spring green-up make ungulates leave their winter ranges sooner? Do persistent drought conditions reduce the carrying capacity of seasonal range habitats or lead to shifts in migration pathways? These and other questions remain largely unanswered but could have cascading effects on ungulate population dynamics and migratory behavior. In February 2018, the Secretary of the Interior signed Department of the Interior Secretarial Order 3362 (SO3362), “Improving Habitat Quality in Western Big-Game Winter Range and Migration Corridors.” The order, which focuses on elk, mule deer, and pronghorn in 11 Western States, directs the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), the National Park Service (NPS), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to partner with State wildlife agencies on their priorities and objectives for identifying and conserving ungulate migration corridors and winter-range habitat. The USGS Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASCs) were established to help managers of the Nation’s fish, wildlife, waters, and lands understand the effects of climate change and adapt to changing conditions. To support the recent Department of the Interior (DOI) emphasis on ungulate migration corridors and winter-range habitat, this report assesses current information on how climate change could affect elk, mule deer, and pronghorn migration. The report synthesizes the drivers of migration, outlines what is known about how climate change might affect these drivers, and summarizes management priorities and science needs related to ungulate migration corridors and range habitat. A review of the literature on ungulate migration shows that the core drivers of spring migration are the timing of spring green-up and snowmelt, and the core driver of fall migration is winter severity. After exploring what is known about how these drivers affect or could be affected by climate change, several pathways through which ungulate migration could be altered were identified: (1) ungulates alter migration timing to better track plant phenology or in response to changes in winter conditions; (2) ungulates change their migration route or distance traveled during migration to accommodate changes in environmental conditions; and (3) ungulate populations that are currently migratory may begin to demonstrate interannual variability in whether they migrate, depending on environmental conditions and density-dependence, and may remain resident for sets of consecutive years. Through discussions with managers, physical barriers to movement such as roads and fences were identified as a core concern. In addition, the primary research needs of States are the acquisition and analysis of data on ungulate movements, to refine delineation of winter range, summer range, and corridors, and to support a better understanding of how ungulates use these habitats. When it comes to understanding climate effects, managers were more concerned with understanding the vulnerability of winter- and summer-range habitats than the vulnerability of migration corridors because of the influence of summer and winter forage on ungulate condition and reproductive success. Managers were also concerned about how forage quality and quantity might change because of stressors such as drought, wildfire, and invasive species and how they might need to alter habitat-treatment strategies as a result. More baseline data are needed before effective projections of ungulate migration, at a West-wide scale under climate change, can be made. These data needs include (1) more clearly defined corridors and seasonal range habitats; (2) a comprehensive understanding of the ecological drivers of migration across ungulate species and populations; and (3) the identification of environmental thresholds for key variables that influence migration, above which ungulates alter migratory behavior. The CASCs have several opportunities to play a role in addressing these needs. The CASCs could initiate projects to identify past and potential future changes and trends in key variables known to affect ungulate migration, such as plant phenology, forage quality, or winter severity. However, it would be difficult to use this information to determine what those trends mean for ungulate migration due to the lack of knowledge about environmental thresholds for ungulates. Additional projects would be required to compare multiple years of movement data with key variables to define thresholds. Once available, information on environmental thresholds could be integrated with projections of key variables to forecast the likelihood that the migration routes or the distance traveled could change—another area in which the CASCs could contribute. A more immediate role for the CASCs would be to carry out synthesis projects. One such project could summarize the “state of the science” on the drivers of ungulate migration. Although there are dozens of population- and location-specific studies on this topic, collating this information could help highlight trends in migration drivers that span species and geographies: a necessary first step toward determining the extent to which migration drivers could be affected by climate change. A second project could focus on what is known about how climate variability and change affect ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migration in the Western United States. The goal of this effort could be to identify knowledge clusters and information gaps that require further investigation. Together, these synthesized products could focus future scientific activities on the most pressing issues of ungulate migration and climate change in the Western United States.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New↗

USGS2012

Development of a flood-warning system and flood-inundation mapping in Licking County, Ohio

Digital flood-inundation maps for selected reaches of South Fork Licking River, Raccoon Creek, North Fork Licking River, and the Licking River in Licking County, Ohio, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Ohio Department of Transportation; U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration; Muskingum Watershed Conservancy District; U.S. Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service; and the City of Newark and Village of Granville, Ohio. The inundation maps depict estimates of the areal extent of flooding corresponding to water levels (stages) at the following USGS streamgages: South Fork Licking River at Heath, Ohio (03145173); Raccoon Creek below Wilson Street at Newark, Ohio (03145534); North Fork Licking River at East Main Street at Newark, Ohio (03146402); and Licking River near Newark, Ohio (03146500). The maps were provided to the National Weather Service (NWS) for incorporation into a Web-based flood-warning system that can be used in conjunction with NWS flood-forecast data to show areas of predicted flood inundation associated with forecasted flood-peak stages. As part of the flood-warning streamflow network, the USGS re-installed one streamgage on North Fork Licking River, and added three new streamgages, one each on North Fork Licking River, South Fork Licking River, and Raccoon Creek. Additionally, the USGS upgraded a lake-level gage on Buckeye Lake. Data from the streamgages and lake-level gage can be used by emergency-management personnel, in conjunction with the flood-inundation maps, to help determine a course of action when flooding is imminent. Flood profiles for selected reaches were prepared by calibrating steady-state step-backwater models to selected, established streamgage rating curves. The step-backwater models then were used to determine water-surface-elevation profiles for up to 10 flood stages at a streamgage with corresponding streamflows ranging from approximately the 50 to 0.2-percent chance annual-exceedance probabilities for each of the 4 streamgages that correspond to the flood-inundation maps. The computed flood profiles were used in combination with digital elevation data to delineate flood-inundation areas. Maps of Licking County showing flood-inundation areas overlain on digital orthophotographs are presented for the selected floods. The USGS also developed an unsteady-flow model for a reach of South Fork Licking River for use by the NWS to enhance their ability to provide advanced flood warning in the region north of Buckeye Lake, Ohio. The unsteady-flow model was calibrated based on data from four flooding events that occurred from June 2008 to December 2011. Model calibration was approximate due to the fact that there were unmeasured inflows to the river that were not able to be considered during the calibration. Information on unmeasured inflow derived from NWS hydrologic models and additional flood-event data could enable the NWS to further refine the unsteady-flow model.

Ohio↗

USGS2024

Spaceborne imaging spectroscopy enables carbon trait estimation in cover crop and cash crop residues

Purpose Cover crops and reduced tillage are two key climate smart agricultural practices that can provide agroecosystem services including improved soil health, increased soil carbon sequestration, and reduced fertilizer needs. Crop residue carbon traits (i.e., lignin, holocellulose, non-structural carbohydrates) and nitrogen concentrations largely mediate decomposition rates and amount of plant-available nitrogen accessible to cash crops and determine soil carbon residence time. Non-destructive approaches to quantify these important traits are possible using spectroscopy. Methods The objective of this study was to quantify cash and cover crop residue nitrogen and carbon traits using partial least squares regression models and a combination of 1) the band equivalent reflectance (BER) of the PRecursore IperSpettrale della Missione Applicativa (PRISMA) imaging spectroscopy sensor derived from laboratory collected ASD spectra (n = 296) of 11 cover crop species and three cash crop species, and 2) spaceborne PRISMA imagery that coincided with destructive crop residue collections in the spring of 2022 (n = 65). Spectral range was constrained to 1200 to 2400nm to reduce the likelihood of confounding relationships in wavelengths sensitive to plant pigments or those related to canopy structure for both analytical approaches. Results Models using laboratory BER of PRISMA all demonstrated high accuracies and low errors for estimation of nitrogen and carbon traits (adj. R2 = 0.86 – 0.98; RMSE = 0.24 – 4.25%) and results suggest that a single model may be used for a given trait across all species. Models using spaceborne imaging spectroscopy demonstrated that crop residue carbon traits can be successfully estimated using PRISMA imagery (adj. R2 = 0.65 – 0.75; RMSE = 2.71 – 4.16%). We found moderate relationships between nitrogen concentration and PRISMA imagery (adj. R2 = 0.52; RMSE = 0.25%), which is partly related to the range of nitrogen in these senesced crop residues (0.38 – 1.85%). PRISMA imagery models were also impacted by atmospheric absorption, variability in surface moisture content, and some presence of green vegetation. Conclusion As spaceborne imaging spectroscopy data become more widely available from upcoming missions, crop residue trait estimates could be regularly generated and integrated into decision support tools to calculate decomposition rates and associated nitrogen credits to inform precision field management, as well as to enable measurement, monitoring, reporting, and verification of net carbon benefits from climate smart agricultural practice adoption in an emerging carbon marketplace.

Maryland↗

USGS2021

Nearshore water quality and coral health indicators along the west coast of the Island of Hawaiʻi, 2010–2014

Coral reefs worldwide are experiencing rapid degradation in response to climate and land-use change, namely effects of warming sea-surface temperatures, contaminant runoff, and overfishing. Extensive coral bleaching caused by the steady rise of sea-surface temperatures is projected to increase, but our understanding and ability to predict where corals may be most resilient to this effect is limited owing to a lack of knowledge of nearshore habitat conditions and the role of compromised coral health in preconditioning bleaching vulnerability. On high islands and most atolls, fresh to brackish groundwater discharges to the coast through the beach face and seafloor, where it mixes with marine waters and commonly creates cool estuarine nearshore waters that are important to wildlife and ecosystem services that benefit people. Here, we summarize results of a study to evaluate the ecosystem services and effects of groundwater on coral reef health and the potential role of groundwater to maintain cold-water refugia that can buffer corals from thermal stress during temperature maxima. Across 75 kilometers of the west coastline of the Island of Hawaiʻi, paired time-series and discrete measurements of water quality, coral-community and colony size structures, and coral health indicators, including bleaching, at 33 stations grouped into 12 study areas were made from July 2010 to December 2013. The results show that nearshore water temperatures are depressed by groundwater across extensive areas of the nearshore. Persistent cold-water refugia ranging from 1 to 5 degrees Celsius below surrounding marine water temperatures are shown to be associated with identified groundwater inputs. Significant correlations were found between metrics of coral health and water temperature. Because areas of temperature refugia were notable along the west coast of the Island of Hawaiʻi and are identified by ecologists as increasingly important to valued wildlife, improved understanding of groundwater flux to the long-term resilience of coral reefs is likely important. In particular, evaluating the extent that the magnitude and timing of groundwater discharge across the nearshore mitigate thermal bleaching stress may help inform the fate of coral reefs projected to experience rising sea-surface temperatures worldwide.

Hawaii↗

USGS2023

Improving the Midwest Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool to support regional climate adaptation

An online climate vulnerability assessment dashboard was developed in 2021 through collaboration between U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) to support regional climate adaptation efforts. The dashboard included 15 climate change impact metrics (five each from three categories: hydrology, precipitation, and temperature) and five metrics representing each watershed's capacity to adapt to changing conditions. Users could then adjust relative weights of each metric to generate vulnerability scores. The metrics included in the dashboard were identified by FWS for their programs but have broad relevance, making the dashboard useful to a wide range of stakeholders. For this project we had two primary goals: (1) update the online dashboard to better communicate the variability that is inherent in climate change projections, and (2) develop a use case example using the dashboard to collaboratively assess vulnerability of a resource of concern at a workshop with resource managers. For objective 2, we selected prairie-obligate butterflies (POBs), which are dependent on, and often restricted to, native prairie habitat. The extent of native prairie has been greatly reduced over the last two centuries resulting in a patchwork of isolated and often small tracts of land. For many POBs, declines and extirpations have been observed in recent decades. Although the causes are not always known, hypotheses include overuse of management tools (e.g., too frequent burning or overgrazing), lack of dispersal opportunities, or extreme weather events. With more extreme weather events anticipated in the future along with other changes in climate, it is important to better understand the vulnerability of POBs to design effective adaptation strategies. While research on extreme weather, climate change, and adaptation is ongoing for some prairie-obligate species, this workshop sought to take a broad perspective using POBs as the focal taxonomic group across eight U.S. States in the Midwest During the workshop we discussed weather and climate-related influences on butterfly communities and assessed climate change vulnerability using the Watershed-based Midwest Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool (https://www.usgs.gov/apps/CC_Vulnerability/). We produced maps that quantify the regional vulnerability of POBs across 360 watersheds for two future emissions scenarios. The information developed during the workshop could help in regional planning for climate change adaptation and to identify avenues for research and collaboration for POBs in the Midwest.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Miss↗

USGS2026

Analyses of meteorological and hydrological records support Tribal members’ accounts of changing climate on the Fort Apache Reservation, east–central Arizona

The Fort Apache Reservation in east–central Arizona, home to the White Mountain Apache Tribe of the Fort Apache Reservation, Arizona, contains several climate zones because of the large variation in surface elevation within the reservation. This study was carried out in cooperation with the White Mountain Apache Tribe of the Fort Apache Reservation, Arizona, to raise awareness of how the changing climate affects the Fort Apache Reservation. This report documents the evaluation of existing multidecadal meteorological and hydrological datasets for the Fort Apache Reservation, used to evaluate the effects of a changing climate on the reservation. In this evaluation, near-surface air temperature, snow depth, snow water equivalent, precipitation, and streamflow datasets were analyzed for monotonic trends indicative of changing climatic conditions during specified periods of time. The results of these trend analyses were then compared with the Tribal community's memories of the changing climate. Trend analysis of near-surface air temperatures from a U.S. Historical Climatological Network station on the Fort Apache Reservation at Whiteriver, Arizona, indicated that mean annual air temperatures have increased by an average of 2.48 degrees Fahrenheit from 1980 to 2023. Records from the same station also indicated that average monthly maximum temperatures recorded for March increased by 5.39 degrees Fahrenheit for the same time period. Annual precipitation at the five precipitation stations used in this study decreased greatly from the 1980s to 2023. The largest total decrease was 10.07 inches, or 34.7 percent. However, only one of the two precipitation stations with longer term data available prior to 1980 had a significant negative trend when data from the entire period of record, from 1901 to 2023, were analyzed. Trend analyses show a decrease in the annual maximum snow water equivalent and an earlier disappearance of the snowpack at two Natural Resources Conservation Service snow telemetry stations in the mountainous region just east of the Fort Apache Reservation from 1981 to 2023. Based on the trend analyses, the average annual maximum snow water equivalent has decreased by more than 40 percent at both stations, and the average date when the snowpack was fully melted at the stations in the spring has moved earlier in time from late April to early April or late March. However, a statistically significant trend was not determined for the early April snow water equivalent measured at a nearby Natural Resources Conservation Service snow course across its period of record, indicating that the history of mountain snowpack in this area is not fully understood. Analysis of snowfall data from a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Cooperative Observer Program network station on the Fort Apache Reservation at McNary 2N, AZ (station 025412) indicated that, on average, the measured total annual snowfall at the station decreased 42.4 percent from 1935 to 2023. Streamflow data from six U.S. Geological Survey streamgages on the Fort Apache Reservation were analyzed for trends. For most streamflow gages, statistically significant trends were not determined for tested parameters when the entire streamflow period of record was used for stations with records going back to at least the 1960s. However, when the data from 1980 to 2023 was tested, most of the streamflow parameters had statistically significant negative trends. All six streamgages showed a decrease in average annual runoff of at least 50 percent from 1980 to 2023; one streamgage showed an 81.8 percent decrease. A similar statistical finding was observed in the analysis of the annual spring snowmelt peak from one of the six streamgages used in the study and located in an area receiving measurable amounts of snowmelt runoff. When data from the entire period of record (1958–2023) was used, no trend in streamflow was determined; however, a significant negative trend was determined from 1980 to 2023, indicating a decrease in average annual springtime runoff of 62.6 percent. Statistical analysis on the timing of the annual spring snowmelt peak at the same streamgage indicated the snowmelt peak is happening on average about 12 days earlier now (2023) than it did in the past. The trend results for the timing of the annual spring snowmelt peak were the same and statistically significant for both periods tested (1958–2023 and 1980–2023). Two of the streamflow records from the Fort Apache Reservation were compared to the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index computed for Arizona Climate Division 4 (East Central) by the National Centers for Environmental Information. The comparison showed that the streamflow records generally tracked the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index. In interviews, Tribal community members living on the Fort Apache Reservation described the changes in climate that they observed during their lifetimes. Common themes reported were that air temperatures have become warmer, and the weather is less predictable with changes in seasonal patterns. Drier conditions, lower snowfall, shorter winters, and lower river levels were also reported. These community member observations align with the results of this study.

Arizona↗

USGS2010

Development of monitoring protocols to detect change in rocky intertidal communities of Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve

Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve in southeastern Alaska includes extensive coastlines representing a major proportion of all coastlines held by the National Park Service. The marine plants and invertebrates that occupy intertidal shores form highly productive communities that are ecologically important to a number of vertebrate and invertebrate consumers and that are vulnerable to human disturbances. To better understand these communities and their sensitivity, it is important to obtain information on species abundances over space and time. During field studies from 1997 to 2001, I investigated probability-based rocky intertidal monitoring designs that allow inference of results to similar habitat within the bay and that reduce bias. Aerial surveys of a subset of intertidal habitat indicated that the original target habitat of bedrock-dominated sites with slope less than or equal to 30 degrees was rare. This finding illustrated the value of probability-based surveys and led to a shift in the target habitat type to more mixed rocky habitat with steeper slopes. Subsequently, I investigated different sampling methods and strategies for their relative power to detect changes in the abundances of the predominant sessile intertidal taxa: barnacles -Balanomorpha, the mussel Mytilus trossulus and the rockweed Fucus distichus subsp. evanescens. I found that lower-intensity sampling of 25 randomly selected sites (= coarse-grained sampling) provided a greater ability to detect changes in the abundances of these taxa than did more intensive sampling of 6 sites (= fine-grained sampling). Because of its greater power, the coarse-grained sampling scheme was adopted in subsequent years. This report provides detailed analyses of the 4 years of data and evaluates the relative effect of different sampling attributes and management-set parameters on the ability of the sampling to detect changes in the abundances of these taxa. The intent was to provide managers with information to guide design choices for intertidal monitoring. I found that the coarse-grained surveys, as conducted from 1998 to 2001, had power ranging from 0.68 to 1.0 to detect 10 percent annual changes in the abundances of these predominant sessile species. The information gained through intertidal monitoring would be useful in assessing changes due to climate (including ocean acidification), invasive species, trampling effects, and oil spills.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2005

Wildlife and habitat damage assessment from Hurricane Charley: recommendations for recovery of the J. N. "Ding" Darling National Wildlife Refuge Complex. [Final report to U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service]

On 13 August 2004, the first of four hurricanes to strike Florida in <6 weeks came ashore near J. N. ?Ding? Darling National Wildlife Refuge (JNDDNWR) Complex, Sanibel Island, FL. Hurricane Charley passed just north of Sanibel Island with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph (123 knots) and a storm surge of 0.3-2.7 m. We surveyed storm damage to JNDDNWR Complex from 20-24 September 2004. Our goals were to assess damage to: wetlands for Mangrove Cuckoos (Coccyzus minor) and Black-whiskered Vireo (Vireo altiloquus), waterbird rookeries/mangrove islands, impoundments, sea grass beds, and hardwood hammocks. The refuge complex sustained moderate to catastrophic damage to vegetation, especially mangrove forests and waterbird nesting or roosting islands. Lumpkin Island, Hemp Island, and Bird Key waterbird nesting areas had >50% and sometimes 90% of their vegetation severely damaged (dead, broken tree stems, and tipped trees). Shell Mound Trail of JNDDNWR sustained catastrophic damage to its old growth mangrove forests. Direct storm mortality and injury to manatees in the area was probably slight. Because seagrass beads and manatee habitat extend beyond refuge boundaries, we recommended a regional approach with partner agencies to more thoroughly assess storm impacts and monitor recovery of seagrass and manatees. Besides intensive monitoring of waterbirds and their nesting habitat (pre- and post-storm), we recommend that the Mangrove Cuckoo be used as an indicator species for recovery of mangrove forests and also for monitoring songbirds at risk. Black-whiskered Vireo may be another potential indicator species to monitor in mangrove forests. Damaged vegetation should be monitored for recovery (permanent or long-term plots), especially where previous study plots have been established and with additional plots in mangrove forests of waterbird nesting islands and freshwater wetlands. Potential loss of wetlands may be prevented by water level monitoring, locating the positions (GPS-GIS) and maintaining existing water control structures, creating a GIS map of refuge with accurate vertical data, and monitoring and eradicating invasive plants. Invasive species, including Brazilian pepper (Schinus terebinthifolius) and air potato (Dioscorea bulbifora), were common in a very limited survey. As an important monitoring goal, we recommend that species presence-absence data analysis (with probability of detection) be used to determine changes in animal communities. This could be accomplished possibly with comparison to other storm-damaged and undamaged refuges in the Region. This information may be helpful to refuge managers when storms return in the future.

Book↗

USGS1998

Satellite telemetry: A new tool for wildlife research and management

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the Alaska Department of Fish and Game have cooperated since 1984 to develop and evaluate satellite telemetry as a means of overcoming the high costs and logistical problems of conventional VHF (very high frequency) radiotelemetry systems. Detailed locational and behavioral data on caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ), polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ), and other large mammals in Alaska have been obtained using the Argos Data Collection and Location System (DCLS). The Argos system, a cooperative project of the Centre National d'Études Spatiales of France, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, is designed to acquire environmental data on a routine basis from anywhere on earth. Transmitters weighing 1.6-2.0 kg and functioning approximately 12-18 months operated on a frequency of 401.650 MHz. Signals from the transmitters were received by Argos DCLS instruments aboard two Tiros-N weather satellites in sun-synchronous, nearpolar orbits. Data from the satellites were received at tracking stations, transferred to processing centers in Maryland and France, and made available to users via computer tape, printouts, or telephone links. During 1985 and 1986, more than 25,000 locations and an additional 28,000 sets of sensor data (transmitter temperature and short-term and long-term indices of animal activity) were acquired for caribou and polar bears. Locations were calculated from the Doppler shift in the transmitted signal as the satellite approached and then moved away from the transmitter. The mean locational error for transmitters at known locations (n - 1,265) was 829 m; 90% of the calculated locations were within 1,700 m of the true location. Caribou transmitters provided a mean of 3.1 (+5.0. SD) locations per day during 6h of daily operation, and polar bear transmitters provided 1.7 (+6.9SD) locations during 12h of operation every third day. During the first 6 months of operation, the UHF (ultra-high frequency) signal failed on three of 32 caribou transmitters and 10 of 36 polar bear transmitters. A geographic information system (GIS) incorporating other databases (e.g., land cover, elevation, slope, aspect, hydrology, ice distribution) was used to analyze and display detailed locational and behavioral data collected via satellite. Examples of GIS applications to research projects using satellite telemetry and examples of detailed movement patterns of caribou and polar bears are presented. This report includes documentation for computer software packages for processing Argos data and presents developments, as of March 1987, in transmitter design, data retrieval using a local user terminal, computer software, and sensor development and calibration.

Resource Publication↗

USGS2014

An ecological response model for the Cache la Poudre River through Fort Collins

The Poudre River Ecological Response Model (ERM) is a collaborative effort initiated by the City of Fort Collins and a team of nine river scientists to provide the City with a tool to improve its understanding of the past, present, and likely future conditions of the Cache la Poudre River ecosystem. The overall ecosystem condition is described through the measurement of key ecological indicators such as shape and character of the stream channel and banks, streamside plant communities and floodplain wetlands, aquatic vegetation and insects, and fishes, both coolwater trout and warmwater native species. The 13- mile-long study area of the Poudre River flows through Fort Collins, Colorado, and is located in an ecological transition zone between the upstream, cold-water, steep-gradient system in the Front Range of the Southern Rocky Mountains and the downstream, warm-water, low-gradient reach in the Colorado high plains. The City wanted to better understand the ecological response of the Poudre River ecosystem to potential changes in stream flow and other physical parameters through the conceptual framework of a multivariable integrated model. This goal was met through the use of a probabilistic model based on Bayesian concepts. This construct allowed the integration of a wide range of data and expert opinion (as informed by local data) to predict potential changes to ecosystem conditions under various flow scenarios. Nine flow scenarios representing past, present, and possible future hydrology were developed as the primary model input. Both reach-scale drivers such as stream channel conditions and pollutant loads, as well as ecological conditions, including species composition, interactions, and habitat requirements influenced model-predicted ecosystem outcomes. Model output consisted of probability distributions for eight ecological indicators collectively representing the physical setting, aquatic life, and riparian habitats of the river ecosystem. We are confident in model predictions related to probable trends, relative magnitude of changes and potential ecosystem responses to changing flow conditions, though data availability and the process of converting diverse data types into a common unit (probabilities) limit precision of individual results. Key findings suggest that: The present ecological function of the Poudre River is altered as a result of more than 150 years of human influences that include highly managed flows, urbanization, gravel mining, channelization and urban and industrial encroachment in the floodplain, underscoring the vulnerable and complex character of the Poudre River; A continuation of today’s flow management will lead to ongoing changes in ecosystem condition, and additional water depletions will compromise ecological conditions; High flows play an essential role in maintaining and improving the aquatic and riparian condition of the river; Adequate flows in base-flow periods are critical to desirable water quality, and thriving fish and insect populations; Improvement of native aquatic life is possible if issues related to channel modifications, siltation, invasive species, and base and high flow conditions are managed properly; The present confined river channel and modified flows has reduced the potential for a keystone and iconic species, plains cottonwood, to be self-sustaining in the study area; The streamside corridor retains the potential to support a functioning riparian forest that provides important ecological services if periodic floodplain inundation occurs. Environmental flows that combine stable and adequate flows in base-flow periods with occasional rejuvenating high flows that meet target levels defined in this study are likely improve all biological indicators across the system. ERM test scenarios that include both stable base flows and rejuvenating high flows indicate that substantial improvements in the river ecosystem can be achieved with improved management of flow volumes similar to those observed in the river during the last half century of intensive water development. These results underscore the possibility of improving the river ecosystem through active management while still maintaining the Poudre’s diverse economic benefits and role as a working river. The ERM was designed to represent the multi-dimensional ecological character of the contemporary urban Poudre River. It provides a scientific foundation that can serve as a decision support tool and foster a more informed community discussion about the future of the river as it provides a better understanding of the likely response of the Poudre River ecosystem to environmental flow management and other stewardship activities. In particular, model results can assist managers in developing specific management actions to achieve desirable goals for key indicators of river health.

Colorado↗

USGS2022

Risk assessment for bull trout introduction into Sullivan Lake and Harvey Creek, northeastern Washington

The Kalispel Tribe of Indians (KT), U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife are engaged in conservation of bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) in the Lake Pend Oreille (LPO) Core Area. The LPO is a complex habitat core area which falls within three states (Montana, Idaho, and Washington) and a tribal entity. As part of the conservation process, KT worked in cooperation with the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) to complete a risk assessment for introduction of bull trout into Sullivan Lake/Harvey Creek, northeastern, Washington. The risk assessment was designed to evaluate potential risks to resident fish species, to bull trout introduced into Sullivan Lake, and to bull trout donor source populations. This risk assessment describes the potential risks associated with pathogens (introduction of pathogens and increased pathogen burden), genetics (such as risk to donor sources, straying and breeding with native bull trout, and introduction of bull-brook hybrids), and ecological interactions (such as predation and competition). Potential donor source populations were identified and evaluated using a qualitative approach based on expert opinion and a decision framework. Literature reviews were completed for fish species composition and abundance in Sullivan Lake basin to assess potential ecological interactions and risks to these populations and to the introduced bull trout. The USGS assessed pathogen risks through two major questions: (1) whether introduced bull trout might bring pathogens into the Sullivan Lake basin that were not previously present and (2) whether the health of introduced bull trout could be adversely affected by pathogens already present in the basin. Assessment of genetic risks included demographic risks to donor source populations, potential for hybridization with native bull trout, and the risk of introducing bull-brook hybrids. Literature reviews were used in conjunction with discussions among regional biologists to identify potential donor source populations and their population attributes. A decision framework was developed by USGS in collaboration with KT biologists that identified desirable population attributes (life history behavior, abundance, population viability, feasibility of collection, and environmental match) associated with donor source populations and established ranking criteria. The population attribute information was used with the (1) decision framework, (2) established ranking criteria, and (3) expert opinion of regional biologists, to assign scores for overall ranking of donor source populations. The LPO source population was the highest ranked and is considered a robust and stable population. The risk of introducing pathogens from LPO into Sullivan Lake via a bull trout introduction program seems low, and indirect pathogen burden risks to resident species can be mitigated using established pathogen surveillance methods. The likelihood that bull trout, introduced into Sullivan Lake, stray and spawn with native bull trout is low. Nearest-neighbor donor source populations, such as LPO, could minimize negative fitness impacts that might occur from straying and interbreeding of individuals that become entrained and help maintain natural patterns of genetic diversity in native populations. The ecological risk that a bull trout introduction presents to resident species seems to be low but with some uncertainty. Pygmy whitefish, a Washington State Sensitive species, is likely most vulnerable to extirpation with increased predation pressure with introduction of an additional piscivore into the ecosystem. The status of the pygmy whitefish in Sullivan Lake is unknown. The ecological risks most likely to reduce the viability of introduced bull trout are predation by burbot and an adequate forage base in Sullivan Lake. Prior fish surveys provided data on resident species abundance, provided an established baseline for effective monitoring, and identifying ecosystem changes post-bull trout introduction to inform future adaptive management decisions.

Washington↗

USGS2016

Accuracy assessment/validation methodology and results of 2010–11 land-cover/land-use data for Pools 13, 26, La Grange, and Open River South, Upper Mississippi River System

Introduction/Background The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)-Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center (UMESC) was responsible for development of several land cover/land use (LCU) systemic datasets of the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS). These efforts (1989 and 2000) were funded by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ Upper Mississippi River Restoration Program (UMRR) Long Term Resource Monitoring (LTRM) element. Development of systemic datasets includes the acquisition, processing, and serving of high-resolution aerial photography and land cover/land use spatial datasets ( http://www.umesc.usgs.gov/data_library/land_cover_use/land_cover_use_data.html ). In 2008, the UMRR reached a collaborative agreement with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service-Region 3 to collect high-resolution digital imagery of the entire UMRS floodplain during 2010–11 for LTRM. The UMESC helped acquire, process, and serve this imagery, as well as produce and serve the 2010–11 LCU systemic dataset of the UMRS floodplain. Digital imagery for Pools 13, 26, La Grange, and Open River South was collected using an Applanix DSS 439 digital sensor system with a 40 millimeter lens and Color Infrared (CIR) filter. The imagery was collected at a resolution of 20 centimeters/pixel (8 inches/pixel) for Pool 13 and 40 centimeters/pixel (16 inches/pixel) for Pools 26, Open River South, and La Grange. All imagery was projected to Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) Zone 15, North American Datum of 1983 (NAD 83). The General Wetland Vegetation Classification (GWVC) system used for mapping is hierarchical, and its 31 classes can be collapsed into broader categories using either a 15- or 7-class level. While the 1989 and 2000 LCU systemic datasets have not gone through a traditional thematic accuracy assessment (AA) in the past, nor have they undergone a validation analysis, the end products are of high quality. For each systemic dataset produced (1989, 2000, 2010–11), extensive field reconnaissance is performed before photointerpretation. The intent of this field reconnaissance is to learn, test, and verify image signatures as they relate to vegetation types. Questionable areas on the imagery are visited, and the plants or land features observed in the area are recorded for reference. This procedure verifies vegetation signatures on the imagery with those on the ground. In addition, once the photointerpretation is complete, the final LCU dataset undergoes extensive quality assurance/quality control to ensure the imagery is mapped correctly. Since the 2000 LCU systemic dataset was developed, there has been a growing interest in completing thematic AAs for the LTRM LCU spatial datasets. The objective of an AA is to measure the probability that a particular location has been assigned its correct vegetation class. An AA estimates thematic (map class) errors in the data, giving users information needed to determine data suitability for a particular application. At the same time, data producers are able to learn more about the nature of errors in the data. Thus, the two attributes of an AA are “producers’ accuracy,” which is the probability that an AA point has been mapped correctly (also referred to as an error of omission); and “users’ accuracy,” which is the probability that the map actually represents what was found on the ground (also referred to as error of commission). Producers’ and users’ accuracies can be obtained from the same set of data by using different analyses. Accuracy assessment is an extensive effort that requires seasonal field personnel and equipment, data entry, analyses, and post processing—tasks that are costly and time consuming. The geospatial team at the UMESC has suggested a validation process for understanding the accuracy of the spatial datasets, which will be tested on at least some areas of the UMRS. Validation is not a true verification of map-class type in the field; however, it can provide the user of the map with useful information that is similar to a field AA. Similar to an AA, validation involves generating random points based on the total area for each map class. However, instead of collecting field data, two or three individuals not involved with the photo-interpretative mapping separately review each of the points onscreen and record a best-fit vegetation type(s) for each site. Once the individual analyses are complete, results are joined together and a comparative analysis is performed. The objective of this initial analysis is to identify areas where the validation results were in agreement (matches) and areas where validation results were in disagreement (mismatches). The two or three individuals then perform an analysis, looking at each mismatched site, and agree upon a final validation class. (If two vegetation types at a specific site appear to be equally prevalent, the validation team is permitted to assign the site two best-fit vegetation types.) Following the validation team’s comparative analysis of vegetation assignments, the data are entered into a database and compared to the mappers’ vegetation assignments. Agreements and disagreements between the map and validation classes are identified, and a contingency table is produced. This document presents the AA processes/results for Pools 13 and La Grange, as well as the validation process/results for Pools 13 and 26 and Open River South.

Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗

USGS2018

Barrier-island and estuarine-wetland physical-change assessment after Hurricane Sandy

Introduction The Nation’s eastern coast is fringed by beaches, dunes, barrier islands, wetlands, and bluffs. These natural coastal barriers provide critical benefits and services, and can mitigate the impact of storms, erosion, and sea-level rise on our coastal communities. Waves and storm surge resulting from Hurricane Sandy, which made landfall along the New Jersey coast on October 29, 2012, impacted the U.S. coastline from North Carolina to Massachusetts, including Assateague Island, Maryland and Virginia, and the Delmarva coastal system. The storm impacts included changes in topography, coastal morphology, geology, hydrology, environmental quality, and ecosystems. In the immediate aftermath of the storm, light detection and ranging (lidar) surveys from North Carolina to New York documented storm impacts to coastal barriers, providing a baseline to assess vulnerability of the reconfigured coast. The focus of much of the existing coastal change assessment is along the ocean-facing coastline; however, much of the coastline affected by Hurricane Sandy includes the estuarine-facing coastlines of barrier-island systems. Specifically, the wetland and back-barrier shorelines experienced substantial change as a result of wave action and storm surge that occurred during Hurricane Sandy (see also USGS photograph, http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/sandy/photo-comparisons/virginia.php ). Assessing physical shoreline and wetland change (land loss as well as land gains) can help to determine the resiliency of wetland systems that protect adjacent habitat, shorelines, and communities. To address storm impacts to wetlands, a vulnerability assessment should describe both long-term (for example, several decades) and short-term (for example, Sandy’s landfall) extent and character of the interior wetlands and the back-barrier-shoreline changes. The objective of this report is to describe several new wetland vulnerability assessments based on the detailed physical changes estimated from observations. The scope includes understanding changes caused by both short- and long-term processes using both remotely sensed and in situ observations to characterize changes to the wetland in terms of accretion/expansion and erosion/contraction. Accretion may be due to net vertical and (or) horizontal deposition, including estuarine-shoreline change due to overwash. Wetland erosion may be due to elevated waves and water levels in the estuary itself. We included additional information based on wave runup and storm-surge elevations based on models and elevation data. We then developed a predictive assessment for wetland vulnerability that describes the likelihood of changes of the estuarine shoreline and the landward extent of sand overwash driven by processes occurring on the ocean-facing shoreline. This assessment is intended to be linked to the beach and dune vulnerability assessments that have been developed previously.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2021

Rigorously valuing the coastal hazard risks reduction provided by potential coral reef restoration in Florida and Puerto Rico

The restoration of coastal habitats, particularly coral reefs, can reduce risks by decreasing the exposure of coastal communities to flooding hazards. In the United States, the protective services provided by coral reefs were recently assessed in social and economic terms, with the annual protection provided by U.S. coral reefs off the coasts of the State of Florida and the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico estimated to be more than 9,800 people and $859 million (2010 U.S. dollars). Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017 caused widespread damage to coral reefs in the State of Florida and the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico. Here we combine engineering, ecologic, geospatial, social, and economic data and tools to provide a rigorous valuation of where potential coral reef restoration could decrease the hazard faced by Florida and Puerto Rico’s reef-fronted coastal communities. The three restoration scenarios considered: (1) Ecological restoration, ‘E25’, which assumes planting 0.25-meter (m)-high corals on a (cross-shore) 25-m-wide reef; (2) Structural plus ecological, ‘S25’, which assumes emplacing a 1.00-m high structure with 0.25-m high corals on top on a 25 m wide reef; and (3) structural plus ecological, ‘S05’, which assumes emplacing a 1.00-m high structure with 0.25-m high corals on top on a 5 m wide reef. Planted corals are assumed to increase hydrodynamic roughness, thereby dissipating incident wave energy and decreasing flooding potential. We used a standardized approach to ‘place’ potential restoration projects throughout the whole (linear) extent of reefs bordering Florida and Puerto Rico to identify where coral reef restoration could be useful for meeting flood reduction benefits. We always sited potential restoration projects within the existing distribution of reefs even though many sites were far (kilometers [km]) offshore and some sites were relatively deep (up to 7 m depth). We followed risk-based valuation approaches to map flood zones at 10-square-meter resolution along all 980 km of Florida and Puerto’s Rico reef-lined shorelines for the three potential coral reef restoration scenarios and compare them to the flood zones without coral reef restoration. We quantified the potential coastal flood risk reduction provided by coral reef restoration using the latest information from the U.S. Census Bureau, Federal Emergency Management Agency, and Bureau of Economic Analysis for return-interval storm events. Using the damages associated with each storm probability, we also calculate the change in annual expected damages, a measure of the annual protection gained because of coral reef restoration. We found that the benefits of reef restoration off Florida and Puerto Rico are spatially highly variable. In most areas, we found little or no benefit from reef restoration (for example, restoration sites were far offshore or deep). However, there were a number of key areas where reef restoration could have substantial benefits for flood risk reduction. In particular, we estimated the protection gained by Florida and Puerto Rico’s coral reefs from coral reef restoration to result in: Avoided flooding to more than 5.6 square kilometers (2.16 square miles) of land annually; Avoided flooding affecting more than 3,100 people annually; Avoided direct damages of more than $124.2 million to more than 890 buildings annually; and Avoided indirect damages to more $148.7 million in economic activity owing to housing and business damage annually. Thus, the annual value of flood risk reduction provided by potential coral reef restoration in Florida and Puerto Rico is more than 3,100 people and $272.9 million (2010 U.S. dollars) in economic activity. These data provide stakeholders and decision makers with a spatially explicit, rigorous valuation of how, where, and when potential coral reef restoration in Florida and Puerto Rico can increase critical coastal storm flood reduction benefits. These results help identify areas where reef management, recovery, and restoration could potentially help reduce the risk to, and increase the resiliency of, Florida and Puerto Rico’s coastal communities.

Florida↗

USGS2006

Wildlife and habitat damage assessment from Hurricane Charley: Recommendations for recovery of the J. N. "Ding" Darling National Wildlife Refuge Complex

• On 13 August 2004, the first of four hurricanes to strike Florida in <6 weeks came ashore near J. N. “Ding” Darling National Wildlife Refuge (JNDDNWR) Complex, Sanibel Island, Florida. The eye of Category 4 Hurricane Charley passed just north of Sanibel Island with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph (123 knots) and a storm surge of 0.3-2.7 m (1-9 ft). Three USGS-BRD scientists (coastal ecologist and research wildlife biologists) and a USFWS wildlife biologist surveyed the storm damage to JNDDNWR Complex on the ground from 20-24 September 2004. • At the request of United States Fish and Wildlife Service refuge staff, the USGS team concentrated on assessing damage to wetlands and habitat for selected bird populations (especially mangrove forests, Mangrove Cuckoos [Coccyzus minor], and Black-whiskered Vireo [Vireo altiloquus]), waterbird rookeries (mangrove islands), impoundments (waterbirds and waterfowl), sea grass beds (manatees), and upland hardwood hammocks and ridges (threatened eastern indigo snake [Drymarchon couperi]). • The refuge complex sustained moderate to catastrophic damage to vegetation, especially mangrove forests and waterbird nesting or roosting islands. Lumpkin Island, Hemp Island, and Bird Key waterbird nesting areas had >50% and sometimes 90% of their vegetation severely damaged (dead, broken tree stems, and tipped trees). The Shell Mound Trail area of JNDDNWR sustained catastrophic damage to its old growth mangrove forests. Direct storm mortality and injury to manatees in the area of the JNDDNWR Complex was probably slight as manatees may have several strategies to reduce storm mortality. Damage to seagrass beds, an important habitat for manatees, fishes and invertebrates, is believed to be limited to the breach at North Captiva Island. At this breach, refuge staff documented inundation of beds by sand and scarring by trees dragged by winds. • Because seagrass beads and manatee habitat extend beyond refuge boundaries (see p. 28), a regional approach with partner agencies to more thoroughly assess storm impacts and monitor recovery of seagrass and manatees is recommended. • Besides intensive monitoring of waterbirds and their nesting habitat (pre- and post-storm), the survey team recommends that the Mangrove Cuckoo be used as an indicator species for recovery of mangrove forests and also for monitoring songbirds at risk (this songbird is habitat-area sensitive). Black-whiskered Vireo may be another potential indicator species to monitor in mangrove forests. Monitoring for these species can be done by distance sampling on transects or by species presenceabsence from point counts. • Damaged vegetation should be monitored for recovery (permanent or long-term plots), especially where previous study plots have been established and with additional plots in mangrove forests of waterbird nesting islands and freshwater wetlands. • Potential loss of wetlands (and information for management) may be prevented by water level monitoring (3 permanent stations), locating the positions (GPS-GIS) and maintaining existing water control structures, creating a GIS map of the refuge with accurate vertical data, and monitoring and eradicating invasive plants. Invasive species, including Brazilian pepper (Schinus terebinthifolius) and air potato (Dioscorea bulbifora), were common in a very limited survey and may become more dominant in areas damaged by the storm. Special attention is needed to eradicate these exotic plants. • As an important monitoring goal, the survey team recommends that species presence-absence data analysis (with probability of detection) be used to determine changes in animal communities. This could be accomplished possibly with comparison to other storm-damaged and undamaged refuges in the Region. This information may be helpful to refuge managers when storms return in the future.

Florida↗

USGS2021

Oyster model inventory: Identifying critical data and modeling approaches to support restoration of oyster reefs in coastal U.S. Gulf of Mexico waters

Executive Summary Along the coast of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, the eastern oyster ( Crassostrea virginica ) plays important ecological and economic roles. Commercial landings from this region account for more than 50 percent of all U.S. landings; these oyster reefs also provide varied ecosystem services, including nursery habitat for many fish and macroinvertebrate species, shoreline protection, and water-quality maintenance. Declining trends in both total oyster production and functional reef area across this region have spurred investment in restoration of oyster resources, with specific calls for restoration projects to develop a network of reefs and identify broodstock and sanctuary reef restoration sites. Decision making related to restoration and establishment of a network of oyster reefs in the Gulf of Mexico requires information on both the environment and the effects of the environment on the oyster life cycle (including larval movement, survival, oyster recruitment, reproduction, growth, and mortality). Here, we examined the current state of data and model development in this region with the goal of providing an overview of oyster modeling approaches and an inventory of available data and existing oyster models. This report is meant to provide an overview to managers for understanding existing efforts and identify a path forward to most efficiently inform oyster resource management and restoration planning in moving from a single reef management approach to a reef network management approach. Numerous models related to some aspect of the oyster life cycle have been built, calibrated, and validated for various Gulf of Mexico estuaries over the last few decades (over 30 models identified). These models, which could inform site restoration, can be classified into four approaches: (1) oyster Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) models; (2) larval transport models; (3) on-reef oyster models that may include oyster growth, mortality and reproduction, and substrate persistence; and (4) coupled larval transport on-reef metapopulation models that simulate the entire oyster life cycle. The data requirements, model complexity and assumptions, and transferability vary by approach. Specifically, some approaches may offer greater accessibility, flexibility, and transferability spatially or temporally, with minimal data input, but only provide broad information to support site selection. In contrast, other approaches may require significant site-specific data for their construction and validation but may provide more accurate and location-specific data to support site selection for broodstock reefs. Regardless of modeling approach used, data on environmental drivers, such as salinity, water temperature, or water flow impacting oyster metabolism and movement, are required at appropriate spatial and temporal scales. While numerous data collection platforms, environmental models, and research products exist within Gulf of Mexico estuaries to provide important environmental data to use as drivers in the oyster models, significant variability in temporal and spatial coverage of the data, and variation in the availability of future condition models, exists across estuaries. This variation influences the spatial and temporal scales at which oyster models may be developed and impacts the calibration and validation of the oyster models within a given estuary, affecting its potential ability to address specific management or restoration questions. While multiple modeling approaches exist for informing site selection of broodstock or sanctuary oyster reefs, the development, calibration, and validation of a single modeling platform presents the most efficient, transferable, and useful tool for managers across the Gulf of Mexico. The development of a single modeling platform would involve using standardized input variables, governing equations, and assumptions for the modeled oyster processes and outputs, and for standardized calibration and validation procedures that could be applied within each estuary. The differences among estuary applications would require substituting only estuary-specific environmental data, and calibrating and validating the modeling approach with local oyster data. Two modeling approaches likely to be useful include (1) development of a general geospatial HSI modeling framework that could be applied consistently across estuaries and (2) a mechanistic coupled larval transport on-reef metapopulation model requiring only estuarine specific calibration and hydrodynamic models. Both approaches benefit from existing work across multiple Gulf of Mexico estuaries and could provide valuable support for oyster restoration, but may differ in their ability to address specific questions related to oyster restoration. HSI models specifically guide restoration practitioners in determining suitable habitat based on available data. The HSI approach, while currently more widely used and accessible, requires more development of larval suitability and larval input and output components in order to inform reef connectivity. A metapopulation approach considering the full oyster life cycle that simulates both on-reef oyster growth, mortality, reproduction, substrate persistence, and larval transport (ideally with larval growth and mortality) would provide the greatest detail and level of understanding but requires significant up-front investment. The larval oyster model and on-reef oyster model are usually developed independently for systems, although the two approaches can be coupled to represent the entire oyster life cycle in order to characterize and assess a reef metapopulation. This approach may be less accessible and much more data-intensive, however, and it requires some expertise to run and apply to inform oyster resource management. Ultimately, the development of single modeling platforms for each of these approaches would provide flexible tools applicable across all Gulf of Mexico oyster supporting estuaries. By using a single platform for model development, testing, calibrating and validating, and evaluation of modeled future scenarios, oyster restoration scientists and managers would not only be able to examine different scenario outcomes within a single estuary, but could also have comparable modeled results to evaluate potential outcomes, across estuaries and regions, that are not confounded by varying modeled data inputs, governing equations, assumptions, or user judgement.

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗

USGS2020

Kelp forest monitoring at Naval Base Ventura County, San Nicolas Island, California: Fall 2018 and Spring 2019, fifth annual report

Introduction Kelp forests and rocky reefs are among the most recognized marine ecosystems and provide the primary habitat for several species of fishes, invertebrates, and algal assemblages (Stephens and others, 2006). In addition, kelp forests have been shown to be important carbon dioxide sinks (Wilmers and others, 2012) and are an important source of nearshore marine primary production (Duggins and others, 1989). These highly dynamic ecosystems are extremely variable, and both top-down and bottom-up ecological controls drive this rich trophic environment. Giant kelp ( Macrocystis pyrifera ) forests and the species that inhabit these ecosystems are influenced by several environmental conditions, such as wave exposure, water temperature, water clarity, bottom depth and composition, species composition, and the density of kelp and other algal assemblages (Schiel and Foster, 2015). However, in addition to “normal” variability, kelp forests can undergo extreme regime shifts from kelp canopy forested areas to barrens characterized by high densities of urchins and encrusting coralline algae (Harrold and Reed, 1985). San Nicolas Island (SNI), outermost of the California Channel Islands, is home to a diverse group of terrestrial and marine organisms and includes kelp bed and rocky reef habitats ( fig. 1 ). The SNI kelp forests not only provide food and shelter for fishes and invertebrates within the habitat, but also they support higher trophic level consumers such as marine birds and several marine mammal species including the southern sea otter ( Enhydra lutris nereis) , a major predator on sea urchins and other marine invertebrates. Owing to concern about the vulnerability of the California population, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) translocated 140 southern sea otters from the central California coast to SNI between 1987 and 1990. Although only approximately 14 translocated otters are thought to have remained at SNI (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 2012), their population at the island has increased and is currently greater than 120 individuals (Hatfield and others, 2019). Sea otters are a natural part of the kelp forest ecosystem, but their presence has implications for community dynamics as they repopulate a region from which they were extirpated in the 19th century. At SNI, sea otters have been concentrated mostly around the west end of the island, with some use of the south side and very little, but expanding, use of the northeast side. An ecosystem shift from urchin dominated to kelp dominated, that occurred at a site at the west end of the island in the early 2000s, though initiated by sea urchin disease, was likely facilitated to some degree by sea otter foraging (Kenner and Tinker, 2018). These ecosystems also are the target of many fisheries, including urchin and lobster. Urchin fisheries, which target the larger red sea urchin, may release the smaller but more mobile purple sea urchin from competitive control (Dayton and others, 1998). Lobster fisheries may release purple sea urchins from predatory control (Lafferty, 2004). Owing to the distance from the mainland, however, SNI kelp forests and reefs have been somewhat protected from the degree of harvest and other anthropogenic impacts experienced by the southern California mainland. Invasive species are another issue, and there are a few invasive subtidal macroalgae of concern in southern California waters. Although the brown alga Sargassum muticum has been established at the island for decades, S. horneri has only recently been seen at SNI and, so far, the invasive kelp Undaria pinnatifida and the green alga Caulerpa taxifolia have not been observed there. Sargassum horneri , in particular, has demonstrated a capability to outcompete native kelps at some of the other Channel Islands but it is unclear what indirect effects it may have on community structure (Marks and others, 2015). Because the surrounding kelp forests fall within the management boundary of the SNI Integrated Natural Resources Management Plan (INRMP; U.S. Navy, 2015), USGS works with the Navy to provide surveys of this ecologically important ecosystem that inform natural resource managers of trends in the population abundance of particular species. In addition, long-term surveys allow for an understanding of potential changes in species diversity and community composition as a result of trophic or other interactions. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) implemented a kelp forest monitoring program for the U.S. Navy at San Nicolas Island in 2014, building on sites and methods established by USFWS scientists in 1980 ( appendix 1 ). This report focuses on data collected during sampling expeditions to these sites in fall 2018 (October 2–5) and spring 2019 (April 3–6). Together they will be herein referred to as year 5 because, although the trips were made in different calendar years, they were approximately 6 months apart and were conducted under the fifth year of this contract. The previous sampling year (fall 2017 and spring 2018) is referred to as year 4. The year 5 data are compared with data collected during eight trips from fall 2014 through spring 2018. Differences in counts between these expeditions can result from seasonal factors, stochastic variation, or sampling error, but temporal comparison can reveal population trends. Where appropriate, long-term data collected during the 33 years prior to the implementation of these slightly revised protocols will be presented in order to lend some context to the observations reported here. Genus and species names used in this report are those currently recognized as valid in the Integrated Taxonomic Information System (ITIS.gov). Upon first use, the name recognized as valid by the World Register of Marine Species (WoRMS; marinespecies.org) is shown in brackets if different. The exception is Sargassum horneri which does not show up in any discernable form in ITIS.gov.

California↗

USGS1972

Food resources of the California condor

Conclusions and Recommendations: Although much of the above information is imprecise and inconclusive, it is evident that the condors foraging habitat is diminishing. Food supply probably is still adequate for free-ranging nonbreeding birds, but could become limited if current land use trends continue. Congregating condors on fewer and fewer acres could be detrimental in other ways. It seems the needs of condors can best be met by maintaining a continuous band of :foraging country throughout the species' horseshoe-shaped range. Public needs for open space and livestock agriculture can also be served by land use zoning, cooperative agreements, easements or other land controls implemented with consideration :for the condors' welfare. Of immediate concern is the declining food situation in the general vicinity of the active condor nests in the Sespe-Piru region. Reproduction is definitely depressed, and the reduced local food supply is the only apparent cause. Predicted future developments can only worsen the situation. A concerted effort should be made immediately to slow the loss of food and foraging area closest to the Sespe Condor Sanctuary including: (1) the Big Mountain-Newhall Ranch regions of southern Ventura County; (2) the arc of grassland around the southern and eastern boundaries of the Sespe Sanctuary; and (3) the Tejon Ranch. Within these areas efforts should be made to increase the amount of condor food by: (1) increasing the amount of livestock, if compatible with proper land use; (2) modifying procedures for disposal of dead livestock, so that more are available to condors; (3) encouraging (subsidizing) ranchers to sacrifice livestock for condor food at certain times o:f the year; and (4) developing a state or Federal supplemental feeding program utilizing cattle, deer or other carrion regularly distributed at close, protected feeding sites. If a convenient food supply is as important to reproduction as it appears, those nest sites closest to the best food source may become most productive and significant in the preservation of this species. These sites, which are in the Piru Creek area, are outside the boundaries o:f the Sespe Condor Sanctuary, but are recognized by the U.S. Forest Service (1971) as extremely important to condor survival. Protective measures recommended in the Forest Service plan should be implemented as soon as possible to preserve this area's usefulness as condor nesting habitat. Food may not be the factor currently limiting condor reproduction. However, the reproductive rate is inadequate to sustain the condor population for long. As food shortage has been shown to limit breeding in many species (Lack 1954, 1966), and as it is something which can be manipulated, it is a logical factor for further study and experimentation.

Administrative Report.↗