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U.S. Geological Survey—Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center 2021–23 research activity report

The mission of Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center is to provide scientific information needed to conserve and manage the Nation’s natural capital for current and future generations, with an emphasis on migratory birds, Department of the Interior trust resources, and ecosystems of the Nation’s interior. This report provides an overview of the studies conducted at Northern Prairie during fiscal years 2021–23 in pursuit of this mission. Studies are organized under a framework developed by the U.S. Geological Survey Ecosystems Mission Area, identifying primary and secondary alignment with focal areas of research, and summarizing recent scientific products resulting from these studies. Partnerships with Federal, State, and non-Governmental organizations are essential to a robust program of applied ecological research, and we thank our many collaborators and colleagues whose contributions made this work possible.

Circular↗

Editorial: Contributions of behavior and physiology to conservation biology

Conservation biology is a rapidly evolving discipline, with its synthetic, multidisciplinary framework expanding extensively in recent years. Seemingly disparate disciplines, such as behavior and physiology, are being integrated into this discipline's growing portfolio, resulting in diverse tools that can help develop conservation solutions. Behavior and physiology have traditionally been considered separate fields, yet their integration can provide a more comprehensive approach to developing solutions to conservation and management problems. However, demonstrations are needed of how behavior and physiology—either separately or combined—have contributed to conservation success. Examining species' vulnerabilities to extinction through the lenses of behavior and physiology can provide insight into the mechanisms that drive population declines and extirpations. Our goal is to increase awareness of the benefit of combining behavioral and physiological tools to improve conservation management decisions. Such studies can also help strengthen the basis for evidence-based conservation which, in some cases, has been previously lacking. The diverse studies in our Research Topic illustrate key examples of ways that behavior and physiology can be incorporated into conservation biology. Three main themes emerged from the invited papers with respect to their relevance to conservation: (1) Stress physiology, (2) indicators of health and disease dynamics, (3) and movement ecology. But these themes were also intertwined, thus showing the importance of integrating multiple fields of research to successfully address questions about conservation biology. Two mini reviews discuss the importance of examining how stress physiology may affect individual fitness and capacity to cope with change which, ultimately, affects the resiliency of populations. Walls and Gabor, in their mini review, promoted combining studies of behavior and physiology to aid in developing conservation strategies for amphibians, which could provide conservation managers with workable solutions to global environmental change. Walls and Gabor also pointed out that studies of behavior are useful to understand how native amphibian species respond to invasive predators. This is supported by Roznik et al. who combined physiology and behavior for a more holistic understanding of the impacts of competition between native and invasive frogs. These authors found that invasive Cuban tree frogs outperformed two native species in jump length and speed, offsetting the costs of dehydration. This work also ties in well to a review by Joly, who indicated the importance of exploring movement ecology (on multiple spatial scales) of invasive species to provide insights for invasive species management. Walls and Gabor also emphasized that more studies on phenological shifts of species in response to recent climate change are needed, as explored by Bókony et al. with birds. These authors found that bird species varied their migratory behaviors in response to contemporary climate change which, in turn, influenced subsequent trends in population size.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗

Nest-site characteristics and linear abundance of cliff-nesting American kestrels on San Clemente Island, California

American Kestrels( Falco sparverius) are typically secondary-cavity nesters, and use of natural cliff cavities for nest sites is less-commonly reported. On San Clemente Island (SCI), California, however, American Kestrels nest primarily on cliffs in major canyons(93%), to a lesser extent on seacliffs(4%), as well as in man-made structures (3%). We located and mapped 99 American Kestrel territories on SCI, and recorded 11 nest-site characteristics at 40 cliff nests during 2001-02. Nest cliffs were typically fractured igneous rock with mean height of 16.1 m +_ 1.8 SE. Mean slope of nest cliffs was vertical (x=91 degrees). Nest cliffs and cavities were significantly oriented to the southeast, away from the prevailing wind direction(NW). In eight canyons, where we believe that we found all occupied American Kestrel territories, the mean linear abundance was 2.1 pairs/km, greater than most published estimates. Contrary to most previous studies, no American Kestrels nested in tree cavities despite their presence in SCI canyons. The absence of cavity-excavating breeding birds from the island likely restricts kestrels to nesting in naturally-formed cavities and man-made structures.

Journal of Raptor Research↗

Avian cholera

Avian cholera is a contagious disease resulting from infection by the bacterium Pasteurella multocida. Several subspecies of bacteria have been proposed for P. multocida, and at least 16 different P. multocida serotypes or characteristics of antigens in bacterial cells that differentiate bacterial variants from each other have been recognized. The serotypes are further differentiated by other methods, including DNA fingerprinting. These evaluations are useful for studying the ecology of avian cholera (Fig. 7.1), because different serotypes are generally found in poultry and free-ranging migratory birds. These evaluations also show that different P. multocida serotypes are found in wild birds in the eastern United States than those that are found in the birds in the rest of the Nation (Fig. 7.2).

Information and Technology Report↗

The thin eggshell problem

It has long been known that DDT and related chemicals can impair the reproduction of birds. In early years of organochlorine pesticide use, widespread mortality occurred immediately following heavy applications of these chemicals, and survivors contained substantial amounts of toxicant in their tissues. Repopulation from untreated areas tended to conceal the extent of the effects. DDT and dieldrin have become ubiquitous and the original source of the chemicals producing bird deaths often cannot be traced. The extent of sublethal effects cannot be fully appraised, although laboratory experiments continually reveal new and potentially deleterious physiological reactions. Thin eggshells have become prevalent among certain declining species of predatory birds. Shell thinning and associated reproductive effects have been produced experimentally in mallard ducks and in sparrow hawks. Coturnix quail fed dietary dosages of p,p'-DDT produced fewer eggs than did untreated birds and the eggs had thinner shells. Hatchability was not significantly altered. Comparisons between these results and those obtained in other studies indicate significant species differences.

Book chapter↗

Captive and field-tested radio attachments for bald eagles

The effects of two radio transmitter attachment techniques on captive and one attachment technique on wild Bald Eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) were studied. A Y-attachment method with a 160-g dummy transmitter was less apt to cause tissue damage on captive birds than an X-attachment method, and loosely fit transmitters caused less damage than tightly fit transmitters Annual survival of wild birds fitted with 65-g transmitters via an X attachment was estimated at 90-95%. As a result of high survival, only five wild birds marked as nestlings were recovered.Two of these birds had superficial pressure sores from tight-fitting harnesses It is recommended that a 1.3-cm space be left between the transmitter and the bird's b ack when radio-tagging post-fiedging Bald Eagles. Additional space, perhaps up to 2.5 cm, is required for nestlings to allow for added growth and development.

Journal of Field Ornithology↗

Performance of the GenEst Mortality Estimator Compared to The Huso and Shoenfeld Estimators

The impacts of wind power development on bat and bird populations are commonly assessed by estimating the number of fatalities at wind power facilities through post-construction monitoring (PCM) studies. Standard methodology involves periodic carcass searches on plots beneath turbines (Strickland et al. 2011, US Fish and Wildlife Service 2012). The resulting counts are adjusted to compensate for bias due to imperfect carcass detection by searchers, removal of carcasses by scavengers or other processes (Korner-Nievergelt et al. 2011), and carcasses that may have fallen outside of searched areas. To account for the bias in counts due to imperfect detection and carcass removal, investigators typically conduct bias trial experiments to inform models of carcass detection probability. Many different estimators have been proposed that combine information about the bias trial experiments to estimate a detection probability for carcasses (g) and ultimately obtain an estimate of total mortality (M). The two estimators that have seen the most widespread use in North America recently are the Huso (Huso 2011, Huso et al. 2012) and Shoenfeld (Shoenfeld 2004; also called the Erickson estimator) estimators. GenEst (Dalthorp et al. 2018a, 2018b, 2018c) is the newest statistical estimator to become available and was designed to improve upon the Huso and Shoenfeld estimators by generalizing the key assumptions in both, and to improve comparability among new PCM studies. In addition to relaxing some of the assumptions inherent to the Huso and Shoenfeld estimators, GenEst uses a parametric bootstrap applied to a novel approach to variance estimation (Madsen et al. 2019). The current study was undertaken to document the performance of GenEst relative to the Huso and Shoenfeld estimators. We took a simulation approach to the study because simulation data provides the basis to compare mortality estimators under conditions where the “truth” is known. The estimators were compared on three metrics: 1) bias—the tendency of an estimator to over- or under-estimate actual mortality, 2) precision—the ability of an estimator to constrain an estimate to a narrow range (measured here as the width of a 90% confidence interval [CI] around the point estimate divided by the true, known mortality), and 3) CI coverage—the probability a CI with a specified level of confidence actually includes the true level of mortality. Although our simulations were conceived and designed—and are discussed—with respect to wind power facilities, it is important to note that the estimators and results discussed here are relevant to any post-construction fatality monitoring study that may occur (such as at solar facilities) where detection is imperfect. Although our study treats the problem of mortality estimation when detection is imperfect, it is also important to note that all of the estimators considered here are Horvitz-Thompson (Horvitz and Thompson 1952) style estimators, that is, none are designed to estimate the mortality of rare species as might be necessary under an Incidental Take Permit. The Evidence of Absence estimator (Dalthorp et al. 2017) is still the most appropriate statistical tool for rare event estimation. The simulations cover a broad range of conditions that may occur in field studies and complete results are presented without commentary in the appendix. The main body of this report does not provide a comprehensive treatment of our results; rather, we try to identify some of the more important differences among the estimators and some conditions under which reliable mortality estimates are especially challenging.

AWWI Technical Report↗

Behavioral profiles of the captive juvenile whooping crane (Grus americana) as an indicator of reintroduction behavior and survival

Predation by bobcats (Lynx rufus) has been the greatest cause of mortality of whooping cranes (Grus americana) in the reintroduced population in Florida. This study investigated whether the behavior of juvenile cranes during captive rearing and shortly after release can be used to predict their chances of survival once released in the wild. This study also examined differences in behavior based on rearing treatments and whether differences observed during rearing continued at the release site. Experimental rearing treatments were parent reared (PR), hand reared (RR), and hand reared with exercise (HRE). Two annual cycles of cranes were observed from hatch to 20 weeks of age in captivity (n=56 birds). Post-release bebavioral data were collected at the release site for a minimum of two weeks (n=34 birds), with mortality data collected up to one year post release (n=38 birds). Behavioral time budgets were compared using repeated measures ANOVA. Logistic regression was used to build a model to identify behaviors that were associated with first-year survival. During rearing, PR birds were the most vigilant. There were no behavioral differences between HR and HRE birds. Generally, rearing treatments had few long-term effects on the post-release behavior of the birds. The main behavioral differences during rearing and after release were the frequency of bouts and the percentage of time spent performing different behaviors. This may be attributed to foraging strategies and adaptation from captive conditions to the wild. Survival was not related to rearing treatment. Fifty-five percent of the birds survived the first year post-release based upon data pooled over two years. During rearing, the frequency of foraging bouts was positively correlated to survival. Survival was negatively correlated to the frequency of walking bouts during rearing, and release weight of the birds. These correlations accounted for 32 percent of the variability in survival. At the release site, 20 percent of post-release survival was negatively correlated with the frequency of non vigilant bouts. This study suggests that none of the rearing treatments confer a survival advantage during the first year post release, however, survival may be improved by encouraging additional foraging opportunities during rearing.

Book↗

Environmental DNA sampling reveals high occupancy rates of invasive Burmese pythons at wading bird breeding aggregations in the central Everglades

The Burmese python ( Python bivittatus ) is now established as a breeding population throughout south Florida, USA. However, the extent of the invasion, and the ecological impacts of this novel apex predator on animal communities are incompletely known, in large part because Burmese pythons (hereafter “pythons”) are extremely cryptic and there has been no efficient way to detect them. Pythons are recently confirmed nest predators of long-legged wading bird breeding colonies (orders Ciconiiformes and Pelecaniformes). Pythons can consume large quantities of prey and may not be recognized as predators by wading birds, therefore they could be a particular threat to colonies. To quantify python occupancy rates at tree islands where wading birds breed, we utilized environmental DNA (eDNA) analysis—a genetic tool which detects shed DNA in water samples and provides high detection probabilities. We fitted multi-scale Bayesian occupancy models to test the prediction that pythons occupy islands with wading bird colonies at higher rates compared to representative control islands containing no breeding birds. Our results suggest that pythons are widely distributed across the central Everglades in proximity to active wading bird colonies. In support of our prediction that pythons are attracted to colonies, site-level python eDNA occupancy rates were higher at wading bird colonies (ψ = 0.88, 95% credible interval [0.59–1.00]) than at the control islands (ψ = 0.42 [0.16–0.80]) in April through June (n = 15 colony-control pairs). We found our water temperature proxy (time of day) to be informative of detection probability, in accordance with other studies demonstrating an effect of temperature on eDNA degradation in occupied samples. Individual sample concentrations ranged from 0.26 to 38.29 copies/μL and we generally detected higher concentrations of python eDNA in colony sites. Continued monitoring of wading bird colonies is warranted to determine the effect pythons are having on populations and investigate putative management activities.

Florida↗

Scrub-successional bird community dynamics in young and mature longleaf pine-wiregrass savannahs

Public agencies are required to manage for threatened and endangered species and for biodiversity. However, at times, management for threatened and endangered species precludes consideration of other species. We investigated how managing for red-cockaded woodpeckers (Picoides borealis) and biodiversity at the Savannah River Site (SRS), South Carolina, affected communities of bird species that use early-successional scrub habitat (hereafter, scrub-successional species). Management for red-cockaded woodpeckers at the SRS involved both (1) manipulating mature longleaf pine (Pinus palustris)-wiregrass (Andropogon spp.) stands via canopy thinning, removal of midstory trees, and prescribed burning; and (2) even-aged timber harvesting. The former management practice encouraged red-cockaded woodpeckers to establish new colonies in previously unoccupied stands (hereafter, 'recruitment' stands). The latter management practice is used to remove off-site planted pines and replant with preferred longleaf pines. We conducted a constant-effort mist net study in recruitment and regenerating stands (stands clearcut and planted with longleaf pine) during the breeding seasons of 1995-96. We hypothesized that the scrub-successional bird community in recruitment stands would have greater species richness and higher survival and reproductive rates per species than in regenerating stands. However, recruitment stands always had fewer scrub-successional species (1995:36 species; 1996:31 species) than regenerating stands (1995:54 species; 1996:55 species), and all species that occurred in recruitment stands also occurred in regenerating stands. Species which commonly occurred in both recruitment and regenerating stands had similar adult:juvenile ratios (P > 0.15) and relative proportion of adults in breeding condition (P > 0.05). We detected no difference in survival rates of Bachman's sparrows (Aimophila aestivalis), indigo buntings (Passerina cyanea), and of 'combined' scrub-successional birds between stand types (P > 0.05). We found that even-aged forestry is an important management practice for maintaining and increasing avian biodiversity on public lands, as well as an acceptable management practice for red-cockaded woodpeckers.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Land use and small mammal predation effects on shortgrass prairie birds

Grassland birds endemic to the central shortgrass prairie ecoregion of the United States have experienced steep and widespread declines over the last 3 decades, and factors influencing reproductive success have been implicated. Nest predation is the major cause of nest failure in passerines, and nesting success for some shortgrass prairie birds is exceptionally low. The 3 primary land uses in the central shortgrass prairie ecoregion are native shortgrass prairie rangeland (62), irrigated and nonirrigated cropland (29), and Conservation Reserve Program (CRP, 8). Because shortgrasscropland edges and CRP may alter the community of small mammal predators of grassland bird nests, I sampled multiple sites on and near the Pawnee National Grasslands in northeast Colorado, USA, to evaluate 1) whether small mammal species richness and densities were greater in CRP fields and shortgrass prairiecropland edges compared to shortgrass prairie habitats, and 2) whether daily survival probabilities of ground-nesting grassland bird nests were negatively correlated with densities of small mammals. Small mammal species richness and densities, estimated using trapping webs, were generally greater along edges and on CRP sites compared to shortgrass sites. Vegetation did not differ among edges and shortgrass sites but did differ among CRP and shortgrass sites. Daily survival probabilities of artificial nests at edge and CRP sites and natural nests at edge sites did not differ from shortgrass sites, and for natural nests small mammal densities did not affect nest survival. However, estimated daily survival probability of artificial nests was inversely proportional to thirteen-lined ground squirrel (Spermophilus tridecemlineatus) densities. In conclusion, these data suggest that although land-use patterns on the shortgrass prairie area in my study have substantial effects on the small mammal community, insufficient data existed to determine whether land-use patterns or small mammal density were affecting grassland bird nest survival. These findings will be useful to managers for predicting the effects of land-use changes in the shortgrass prairie on small mammal communities and avian nest success. ?? 2010 The Wildlife Society.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Mortality from duck plague virus in immunosuppressed adult mallard ducks

Environmental contaminants contain chemicals that, if ingested, could affect the immunological status of wild birds, and in particular, their resistance to infectious disease. Immunosuppression caused by environmental contaminants, could have a major impact on waterfowl populations, resulting in increased susceptibility to contagious disease agents. Duck plague virus has caused repeated outbreaks in waterfowl resulting in mortality. In this study, several doses of cyclophosphamide (CY), a known immunosuppressant, were administered to adult mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) to determine if a resultant decrease in resistance to a normally sub-lethal strain of duck plague virus would occur, and induce mortality in these birds. Death occurred in birds given CY only, and in birds given virus and CY, but not in those given virus only. There was significantly greater mortality and more rapid deaths in the duck plague virus-infected groups than in groups receiving only the immunosuppressant. A positively correlated dose-response effect was observed with CY mortalities, irrespective of virus exposure. A fuel oil and a crude oil, common environmental contaminants with immunosuppressive capabilities, were tested to determine if they could produce an effect similar to that of CY. Following 28 days of oral oil administration, the birds were challenged with a sub-lethal dose of duck plague virus. No alteration in resistance to the virus (as measured by mortality) was observed, except in the positive CY control group.

Journal of Wildlife Diseases↗

Waterfowl and their wintering grounds in Mexico, 1937-64

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has been interested in migratory birds, especially waterfowl, in Mexico for many years, An early period of cooperation in waterfowl administration was culminated in 1937 with the final ratification of the Convention Between the United States and the United Mexican States for the Protection of Migratory Birds and Game Mammals, usually referred to as the Migratory Bird Treat. Management of waterfowl on this continent is primarily carried out by hunting regulations. Current information on the status of each species must be obtained each year to serve as a basis for any needed modifications in the regulations. In the United States and Canada, wildlife biologists of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the Canadian Wildlife Service annually make the surveys to obtain this basic information. But the Government of Mexico has made no comparable surveys. Mexicans are not interested in hunting waterfowl to the extent that citizens of the United States and Canada are. As a consequence, Mexico's Department of Game emphasizes activities other than waterfowl management. Waterfowl, especially ducks, winter in or migrate through Mexico in large numbers, so it is obvious that and continental surveys of the winter population should include Mexico. Some general investigations of waterfowl distribution there were made in 1926 and earlier by E. A. Goldman. He was familiar with much of Mexico because he and E. W. Nelson studied mammals and biota there for many years. In the 1930's, because of the greater emphasis on waterfowl conservation and management, more detailed surveys were made of the continental breeding and wintering populations. One of these activities was designated as the midwinter, or January, inventory. In the early 1940's the senior author, who had been the Central Flyaway Biologist since 1937, recommended that the waterfowl wintering grounds in Mexico be included in the coverage of the midwinter waterfowl inventory. This was arranged in 1947, and the first aerial coverage, which only included coastal localities, was made in January-February of that year. The information obtained confirmed the value and advisability of including the Mexican wintering grounds in the annual survey; beginning in 1951 the wintering grounds in the Mexican highlands also were included. The surveys of Mexico were continued, except in 1957, through 1965; after 1965 they were greatly reduced. Ground reconnaissance and surveys had begun in Mexico with the preliminary work of Goldman in 1926, but quantitative studies were not started until 1937. The ground surveys continued at intervals in various parts of the Republic until 1960. Ground surveys are invaluable for such purposes as securing ecological information, specimens of birds and plants, and historical data about the areas from local residents, but the only satisfactory method of obtaining accurate quantitative information on waterfowl populations and their distribution is by airplane. Consequently, the major emphasis since 1947 has been on the annual aerial surveys. Ground studies were made much less frequently and were carried out mainly to obtain correlative information on the waterfowl foods available, the ecology of habitats, and for liaison with wildlife officials and biologists in Mexico. An important reason for the surveys of the waterfowl wintering grounds in Mexico was to determine their adequacy for the population of birds using them, and their potential to accommodate additional waterfowl if the wintering grounds in the United States became inadequate and larger flights entered Mexico. Other advantages included providing accurate information to hunters and other interested persons in the United States regarding the waterfowl shooting in Mexico, and determining the current status of these birds and their habitats in that country. Some of these findings were previously summarized by us (Saunders and Saunders 1949; Saunders 1964).

Resource Publication↗

Ephemeral lekking behavior in the buff-breasted sandpiper, Tryngites subruficollis

We studied male reproductive behavior of the buff-breasted sandpiper Tryngites subruficoills for three yean on a 16-km 2 study site in northern Alaska to document variation in male lekking behavior and to explore the causes of that variation. During the breeding season, about 75% of males on the study area displayed on leks, with the remainder displaying solitarily. Leks averaged between 2.3 and 3.0 males each (maximum size = 20). Most leks (69%) were present in only one year and about one-tenth were active all three years. Half of the leks were active for only one survey (maximum of 3-4 days) in a given year. Individual male behavior varied substantially, from remaining at a tingle lek for most of the breeding season or attending multiple leks during the season, to displaying solitarily or displaying both on leks and solitarily. Some males (30% or fewer) displayed near nests during the later part of the breeding season, perhaps attempting to copulate with females during egg-laying. The pro-portion of males that displayed on leks remained consistently high throughout the breeding season despite changes in the operational sex ratio and in the intensity of male-male competition. However, the absolute number of males (lekking and solitary) in the study area was positively correlated with the number of fertile females during both breeding seasons. We suggest that buff-breasted sandpipers may be unusual among lek-breeding birds in that males have the option of leaving areas when the number of fertile females becomes depressed and flying to new areas where breeding opportunities are still available. Breeding opportunities may be especially variable in the high arctic because of uneven snow accumulation and differential melt-off that can delay breeding by two or more weeks. This interpretation suggests that the mating system of the buff-breasted sandpiper must be viewed at a much larger scale than what has typically been used in mating system studies.

Alaska↗

Migration strategy affects avian influenza dynamics in mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ).

Studies of pathogen transmission typically overlook that wildlife hosts can include both migrant and resident populations when attempting to model circulation. Through the application of stable isotopes in flight feathers, we estimated the migration strategy of mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ) occurring on California wintering grounds. Our study demonstrates that mallards- a principal host of avian influenza virus (AIV) in nature, contribute differently to virus gene flow depending on migration strategy. No difference in AIV prevalence was detected between resident (9.6%), intermediate-distance (9.6%) and long-distance migrants (7.4%). Viral diversity among the three groups was also comparable, possibly owing to viral pool mixing when birds converge at wetlands during winter. However, migrants and residents contributed differently to the virus gene pool at wintering wetlands. Migrants introduced virus from northern breeding grounds (Alaska and the NW Pacific Rim) into the wintering population, facilitating gene flow at continental scales, but circulation of imported virus appeared to be limited. In contrast, resident mallards acted as AIV reservoirs facilitating year-round circulation of limited subtypes (i.e. H5N2) at lower latitudes. This study supports a model of virus exchange in temperate regions driven by the convergence of wild birds with separate geographic origins and exposure histories.

Molecular Ecology↗

Avian predation on juvenile and adult Lost River and Shortnose Suckers: An updated multi-predator species evaluation

Previous research suggests that predation by piscivorous colonial waterbirds may negatively influence the survival of Lost River Suckers (LRS) Deltistes luxatus and Shortnose Suckers (SNS) Chasmistes brevirostris in the Upper Klamath Basin (UKB), USA. However, estimates of predation from past studies, which were based on suckers with PIT tags, represent minimum estimates of sucker mortality because analyses did not account for the proportion of tags that were consumed by birds and deposited beyond their breeding colony. To address this uncertainty, we fed PIT-tagged suckers to American white pelicans Pelecanus erythrorhynchos to estimate deposition probabilities. A hierarchical Bayesian model was then used to estimate predation rates (percentage of available tagged fish that were consumed) on juvenile suckers that were released as part of the Sucker Assisted Rearing Program (SARP) and on wild juvenile and adult LRS and SNS during 2009–2020. Pelican deposition probabilities were estimated to be 0.47 (95% credible interval = 0.36–0.60), indicating that for every 100 tags consumed, 47 tags on average were deposited on breeding colonies by birds. Deposition-corrected estimates of predation rates were approximately two times greater than those previously reported and ranged annually from 4.3% (95% credible interval = 2.9–6.7%) to 8.5% (6.3–12.7%) on SARP juvenile suckers, from 4.3% (0.9–13.2%) to 10.5% (3.8–24.5%) on wild juvenile suckers, and from 0.1% (<0.1–0.3%) to 7.2% (2.8–16.4%) on adult suckers, depending on species and location. Results suggest that predation by colonial waterbirds, although not the original cause of sucker declines, was a substantial source of sucker mortality in some years. Future studies should consider models that jointly estimate both predation and survival and models that include environmental factors that potentially influence sucker susceptibility to avian predators in the UKB.

California, Oregon↗

Incorporating detection probability to estimate pheasant density

ndices of abundance, such as point counts, commonly are used to monitor trends in bird populations. In some circumstances, however, an index of abundance provides insufficient information for making management decisions and accurate density estimates are necessary. Wild ring-necked pheasants ( Phasianus colchicus ) were translocated to 10 study areas in Pennsylvania from 2007 to 2014 with the goal of establishing female densities of 3.86 pheasants/km 2 . We developed a population density estimator that used 3-minute crowing counts adjusted for probability of detection to estimate male pheasant density and flushing surveys to estimate the female:male ratio. To account for detection probability, we estimated the probability a pheasant was available to be detected by monitoring crowing frequency of male pheasants fitted with radio-transmitters and the probability an observer was able to detect a crowing pheasant at distances from 0 to 0.93 km. We found the probability a pheasant crowed during 3 minutes decreased linearly over our survey period from 0.66 in mid-April to 0.46 by the end of May. At the farthest distance we were able to accurately detect a crowing pheasant. We estimated the probability of detecting a pheasant at 0.80 km to be 0.019 ± 0.005 (SE), which means that we could not assume any fixed distance beyond which crowing birds could not be detected. Therefore, we replaced the probability of detection in the standard distance sampling estimator with the effective area of detection. The estimation of the effective area of detection is robust to choice of radius of the point and did not require observers to estimate the distance to crowing pheasants. We estimated the female:male ratio to be 1.02:1, despite the ratio of released pheasants being 4.46:1. Only 1 study area achieved the female density goal ( = 4.16); the maximum density at all other study areas was <2 females/km 2 . The estimator we developed incorporated multiple detection probabilities to provide density estimates and simplified the crowing count protocol by eliminating the need for observers to estimate their distance from a detected bird, which makes the estimator useful for estimation of population abundance when explicit population density objectives must be evaluated.

Pennsylvania↗

Changes in genetic diversity and differentiation in Red‐cockaded woodpeckers (Dryobates borealis) over the past century

Red‐cockaded woodpeckers (RCW; Dryobates borealis ) declined after human activities reduced their fire‐maintained pine ecosystem to <3% of its historical range in the southeastern United States and degraded remaining habitat. An estimated 1.6 million RCW cooperative breeding groups declined to about 3,500 groups with no more than 10,000 birds by 1978. Management has increased RCW population abundances since they were at their lowest in the 1990s. However, no range‐wide study has been undertaken since then to investigate the impacts of this massive bottleneck or infer the effects of conservation management and recent demographic recoveries. We used mitochondrial DNA sequences (mtDNA) and nine nuclear microsatellite loci to determine if range‐wide demographic declines resulted in changes to genetic structure and diversity in RCW by comparing samples collected before 1970 (mtDNA data only), between 1992 and 1995 (mtDNA and microsatellites), and between 2010 and 2014 (mtDNA and microsatellites). We show that genetic diversity has been lost as detected by a reduction in the number of mitochondrial haplotypes. This reduction was apparent in comparisons of pre‐1970 mtDNA data with data from the 1992–1995 and 2010–2014 time points, with no change between the latter two time points in mtDNA and microsatellite analyses. The mtDNA data also revealed increases in range‐wide genetic differentiation, with a genetically panmictic population present throughout the southeastern United States in the pre‐1970s data and subsequent development of genetic structure that has remained unchanged since the 1990s. Genetic structure was also uncovered with the microsatellite data, which like the mtDNA data showed little change between the 1992–1995 and 2010–2014 data sets. Temporal haplotype networks revealed a consistent, star‐like phylogeny, suggesting that despite the overall loss of haplotypes, no phylogenetically distinct mtDNA lineages were lost when the population declined. Our results may suggest that management during the last two decades has prevented additional losses of genetic diversity.

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Lou↗