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SCEC/USGS Community Stress Drop Validation Study: How spectral fitting approaches influence measured source parameters

Spectral source parameters used to estimate an earthquake’s stress drop (Δσ) can vary significantly across measurement approaches. The Statewide California Earthquake Center/U.S. Geological Survey Community Stress-Drop Validation Study was initiated to compare source parameter estimates, focusing initially on a dataset from the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence. As part of that validation effort, here we focus on one potential source of uncertainty: whether spectral fitting approaches alone, applied to a common set of spectra from the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence result in different source parameter estimates. By using a common set of benchmark spectra analyzed across a consistent frequency band of 1–40 Hz, we eliminate many sources of variability. A subgroup of validation study participants volunteered to estimate the low-frequency displacement (Ω0) and corner frequency ( f c ) by fitting a smooth function to benchmark displacement spectra. Participants used linear- or log-sampled spectra, assumed a Brune or Boatwright spectral model, and applied different misfit criteria. We compare 17 approaches used to estimate Ω0, f c , and Δσ for 54 earthquake spectra. Our results reveal that 35% of events have Δσ estimates within a factor of two, whereas others exhibit variations exceeding an order of magnitude. The variability in Ω0 and f c can largely be attributed to whether a spectrum is consistent with the smooth function of an idealized simple crack model. The trade-off between Ω0 and f c may be more pronounced when using linearly sampled spectra, as higher frequency spectral bumps control the fits. As expected, methods that assumed a Boatwright model tended to have lower Ω0 and somewhat higher f c compared to those assuming a Brune model, although resulting Δσ estimates are similar. When compared to the overall validation study results, the fitting approach alone may account for between 5% and 90% (25% on average) of the total variability in spectral Δσ.

California

Complex hydrology and variability of nitrogen sources in a karst watershed

Streams draining karst areas with rapid groundwater transit times may respond relatively quickly to nitrogen reduction strategies, but the complex hydrologic network of interconnected sinkholes and springs is challenging for determining the placement and effectiveness of management practices. This study aims to inform nitrogen reduction strategies in a representative agricultural karst setting of the Chesapeake Bay watershed (Fishing Creek watershed, Pennsylvania) with known elevated nitrate contamination and a previous documented groundwater residence time of less than a decade. During baseflow conditions, streamflow did not increase with drainage area. Headwaters and the main stem lost substantial flow to sinkholes until eventually discharging along large springs downstream. Seasonal hydrologic conditions shift the flow and nitrogen load spatially among losing and gaining stream sections. A compilation of nitrogen source inputs with the geochemistry and the pattern of enrichment of δ 15 N and δ 18 O suggest that the nitrogen in streams and springs during baseflow represents a mixture of manure, fertilizer, and wastewater sources with low potential for denitrification. The pH and calcite saturation index increased along generalized flow paths from headwaters to springs and indicate shorter groundwater residence times in baseflow during the spring versus summer. Given the substantial investment in management practices, fixed monitoring sites could incorporate synoptic water sampling to properly monitor long-term progress and help inform management actions in karst watersheds. Although karst watersheds have the potential to respond to nitrogen reduction strategies due to shorter groundwater residence times, high nitrogen inputs, effectiveness of conservation practices, and release of legacy nutrients within the karst cavities could confound progress of water quality goals.

Pennsylvania

Wind River subbasin restoration: Annual report of U.S. Geological Survey activities January 2024 through December 2024

We sampled juvenile wild Oncorhynchus mykiss (Steelhead Trout) in headwater streams of the Wind River, Washington, to characterize population attributes and investigate life-history metrics, particularly migratory patterns, and early life-stage survival. Additionally, this sampling provides an index of abundance of non-native Brook Trout Salvelinus confluentus . We used passive integrated transponder (PIT) tagging and a series of instream PIT-tag interrogation systems (PTISs) to track juveniles and adults. The Wind River subbasin is considered a wild Steelhead refuge by Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW). No hatchery Steelhead Trout have been released in the Wind River subbasin since 1997, and hatchery adults are estimated at less than one percent of spawners in most years. Over 25 years of Steelhead Trout status and trend monitoring and research in the subbasin is contributing to understanding of population response to numerous restoration actions in the subbasin, including removal of Hemlock Dam from Trout Creek in 2009, which had an inadequate adult ladder and contributed to increased water temperatures, to near lethal levels for salmonids. Data from our study, and companion work by WDFW, are contributing to the Columbia Basin Fish and Wildlife Program (2009) Research, Monitoring, and Evaluation (RM&E) Strategy of Fish Population Status Monitoring. Specifically, this work addresses the sub-strategies of 1) Assessing the Status and Trends of Diversity of Natural Origin Fish Populations and Uncertainties Research regarding differing life histories of a wild Steelhead Trout population, 2) Assessing the Status and Trend of Adult Natural Origin Fish Populations, and 3) Monitoring and Evaluating the Effectiveness of Tributary Habitat Actions Relative to Environmental, Physical, or Biological Performance Objectives. During summer and fall 2024, we PIT-tagged 2,075 Steelhead Trout parr (age-0 and age-1), in the Trout Creek and upper Wind River watersheds. Age-0 and age-1 parr were at high abundance due to strong spawner numbers in 2023 and 2024 (Estimate of 932 in 2023; and a moderate number of spawners in 2024 though an estimate is not available at this time; 24-year median = 619; Charlie Cochran, WDFW Fish Biologist, personal commun., 2025). An additional 100 parr (age-0 and age-2 or older) were tagged to provide fish for estimating detection efficiencies at PTISs. Steelhead Trout parr were recaptured and detected through repeat headwater sampling, smolt trapping, instream PTISs and Columbia River mainstem PIT-tag detection. We maintained and upgraded six instream PTISs to detect PIT-tagged Steelhead Trout parr, smolts, and adults, providing data for population assessments, and life-cycle research. Detection data from PIT-tagged adult Steelhead Trout at our four primary PTISs allow assessment of adult escapement to tributary watersheds within the Wind River subbasin. Most adult Steelhead detected were tagged by WDFW at an adult trap in the lower Wind River and some as smolts at screw traps. Adult Steelhead Trout detection efficiency estimates at our primary PTIS in Trout Creek have been greater than 99 percent during eight of the past ten years and have exceeded 97% at our primary PTIS in the Wind River during nine of the past ten years. Adult escapement estimates to tributary watersheds are helping evaluate the efficacy of the 2009 removal of Hemlock Dam from rkm 2.0 of Trout Creek. Detections at the instream PTISs have shown trends of age-0 and age-1 Steelhead Trout parr emigration from natal areas during summer and fall, in addition to the expected movement of parr and smolts in spring. Our data suggest that most fish from a cohort that migrate downstream will do so at age-1 for additional rearing in the subbasin. We have estimated that from 15% to 56% of parr tagged as age-0 fish in headwater areas make downstream migrations at age-1 for additional rearing (median = 29%). We have estimated that from 1% to 27% of Steelhead Trout parr, tagged as age-1 fish, make downstream migrations during fall (median = 3.5%): this is especially pronounced in the upper Wind River portion of the watershed (median 10%). These findings raise questions about parr rearing habitat and whether migrations are density- or habitat-quality driven, and answers to such questions are long-term goals of this study as active and passive habitat restoration occurs. Repeat sampling at sites in the subbasin within and between years has enabled assessment of juvenile Steelhead Trout growth patterns. Growth rates (relative change in weight) of age-0 PIT-tagged parr during summer have been similar across the subbasin, though slightly lower in the Trout Creek watershed (Trout Creek sites, 0.57 - 1.25%/day, Wind River sites = 0.94 – 2.48%/day). Summer growth rates have been lower for age-1 parr in the Trout Creek watershed than the upper Wind River watershed (Trout Creek sites, = 0.03 - 0.14%/day, Wind River sites = 0.05 – 0.19%/day). Yearly relative growth was similar across the subbasin for both age-0 and age-1 tagged parr. During 2024 range of mean daily relative change in weight from the previous year for age-0 tagged fish was: Trout Creek sites = 0.96 – 1.41%/day, Wind River sites = 0.80 – 1.30 %/day; and for age1 tagged fish was: Trout Creek sites = 0.37 - 0.50 %/day, Wind River sites = no age-1 tagged recaptures. Non-native Brook Trout are present in the subbasin, chiefly the Trout Creek watershed. Mean percent-of-catch that is Brook Trout, at four sample sites in Trout Creek, has declined from the period 1998 – 2003 to the period 2011 – 2024 (range of decrease = 19 - 82%). Percent-of-catch (of 64 samples, 52 < 10%; 3 > 20%) and number of Brook Trout at the Trout Creek sites from 2011 through 2024, though variable, have generally declined. Habitat restoration evaluation efforts are critical to ensure efficient use of money and resources but require long-term monitoring of population metrics. Detailed viable salmonid population and life-history data, such as that provided by PIT-tagging and instream PTIS networks inform fisheries policy and management and enable assessment of long-term effects of habitat restoration actions such as the removal of Hemlock Dam on Trout Creek and proposed major instream habitat restoration in the upper Wind River.

Washington

Evaluation of models for estimating hydraulic conductivity in glacial aquifers from NMR logging

Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) logging is a promising method for estimating hydraulic conductivity ( K ). During the past ∼60 years, NMR logging has been used for petroleum applications, and different models have been developed for deriving estimates of permeability. These models involve calibration parameters whose values were determined through decades of research on sandstones and carbonates. We assessed the use of five models to derive estimates of K in glacial aquifers from NMR logging data acquired in two wells at each of two field sites in central Wisconsin, USA. Measurements of K , obtained with a direct push permeameter (DPP), K DPP , were used to obtain the calibration parameters in the Schlumberger-Doll Research, Seevers, Timur-Coates, Kozeny-Godefroy, and sum-of-echoes (SOE) models so as to predict K from the NMR data; and were also used to assess the ability of the models to predict K DPP . We obtained four well-scale calibration parameter values for each model using the NMR and DPP measurements in each well; and one study-scale parameter value for each model by using all data. The SOE model achieved an agreement with K DPP that matched or exceeded that of the other models. The Timur-Coates estimates of K were found to be substantially different from K DPP . Although the well-scale parameter values for the Schlumberger-Doll, Seevers, and SOE models were found to vary by less than a factor of 2, more research is needed to confirm their general applicability so that site-specific calibration is not required to obtain accurate estimates of K from NMR logging data.

Wisconsin

Hidden system identification: Basin modeling as a tool for examining sedimentary geothermal resource potential

Three-dimensional (3D) geologic and temperature models have been developed for the onshore U.S. Gulf Coast. The results from these models identify areas of moderate- to high-temperature (90°-150°C and >150°C; respectively) geothermal resources at depths <6 km. This modeling study addresses the fundamental challenge of predicting where opportune temperature and lithology coincide. Unlike traditional geothermal systems with surface expressions of hydrothermal circulation (e.g., hot springs, fumaroles, sinter), sedimentary geothermal systems (SGS) are generally hidden. Historically, simplified efforts to predict subsurface temperatures in sedimentary basins have focused on linear temperature extrapolation that does not consider the variable thermal properties of different lithologies or lithologic changes with depth (e.g., compaction, lithification). Therefore, the need to understand basin architecture and predict temperatures in 3D within SGS is paramount to identifying geothermal resources and determining economic feasibility. Basin modeling software has long been used to characterize the subsurface conditions of sedimentary basins, including temperature, in the pursuit of finding hydrocarbons. This tool can also be adapted to evaluate the potential of geothermal resources in a sedimentary basin by predicting the confluence of desirable temperatures and reservoir lithologies. In this work, PetroMod basin modeling software was used to create a regional geologic model of the onshore U.S. Gulf Coast, covering over 500,000 km 2 calibrated to temperature data from wells. Inputs include structural surfaces from commercial databases, lithology information derived from published literature, and corrected bottom-hole temperatures (BHT) from over 6,000 wells. The resulting 3D geologic model can be used to predict temperatures throughout the basin. Maps were exported showing the depth, depositional unit, and reservoir lithology at which temperatures of 90°C and 150°C were reached, revealing over 400,000 km 2 of moderate- to high-temperature resources at depths <6 km. These maps function as a first-order screening tool to identify areas where low-, moderate-, or high-grade resource potential may exist, based on temperature and if optimal reservoir lithologies or depositional units of interest are present. Depending on the success criteria of a project, the same maps can be exported for any isotherm or incorporate other 1407 Gardner and Birdwell subsurface properties. The methodology employed in this work can be applied in any sedimentary basin with available subsurface data. Further calibration incorporating other data, including pressure and porosity, can expand the utility of basin modeling for geothermal evaluations. Basin modeling is a powerful but underutilized tool for identifying prospective geothermal resources in sedimentary basins.

Conference Paper

Enhancing mineral systems exploration through geochronology, thermochronology, and isotope analysis: USGS Geochron and USGS Isotope databases

A mineral systems approach to mineral exploration provides a comprehensive framework for understanding ore deposit formation by examining the geodynamic, magmatic, hydrothermal, and sedimentary processes responsible for mineralization, alteration, and remobilization of economic mineral deposits. Temporal and thermal constraints on ore genesis are crucial for refining mineral system models and guiding predictive exploration strategies. Geochronology and thermochronology offer invaluable insights into the timing and thermal evolution of ore-forming processes, whereas isotopic analyses provide critical information on the source and geochemical history of ore-forming fluids. Combining these methodologies have proven highly effective for mineral exploration in regions like Australia, however, their combined application has been limited in the United States. To apply these tools to mineral systems-based exploration, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed two products: (1) The USGS Geochron Database, and (2) the USGS Isotope Database. These databases provide centralized repositories of geo/thermochronological dates and data (Geochron Database) and both radiogenic and stable isotope data (Isotope Database) generated by the USGS and partners over the past decades. Integrating these datasets together and with traditional exploration approaches provides the mineral exploration community with powerful tools for determining the temporal and thermal histories of ore systems and identifying metallogenic source provinces.

Continental United States

Sensitivity of benthic biota and toxicity of cadmium, cobalt, copper, nickel, lead, and zinc mixtures in Washington, United States, and British Columbia, Canada

Relative sensitivities and responses of juvenile white sturgeon ( Acipenser transmontanus ), Hyalella azteca , two families of mayfly (Ephemerellidae, Heptageniidae), one family of caddisfly (Brachycentridae), and a natural community of benthic macroinvertebrates (BMI) to multiple metals are predicted using previously collected laboratory and field samples and a metal mixture model. Biological responses in single metal exposures are used to parameterize toxicity functions, which include accumulations of hydrogen and selected metals on biological receptors, intrinsic potencies of hydrogen and metals, sensitivities of organisms, and times of exposure. The model then is used to predict responses in multiple metal laboratory exposures and field-collected porewater. The following sensitivity sequence in porewater was determined based on endpoints of survival or total abundance: juvenile white sturgeon greater than (>) Ephemerellidae family > Hyalella azteca > Heptageniidae family about equal to (~) benthic macroinvertebrate community > Brachycentridae family. The fraction of porewater samples that are predicted to have adverse impacts on benthic biota (20-percent or greater negative response) depends on organism sensitivities and metal toxicities, and ranges from 44 to 48 percent for juvenile white sturgeon, 23 to 26 percent for the Ephemerellidae family, 16 to 22 percent for Hyalella azteca , 5 to 8 percent for the Heptageniidae family and BMI community, and 0 percent for the caddisfly family. The most toxic porewater in the upper Columbia River Basin (UCR) is at the backwater bar site at Deadmans Eddy and China Bend. The model also indicates that the element responsible for the most toxic conditions in UCR porewater is copper for all organisms, except Hyalella azteca and the metal-insensitive Brachycentridae family. Copper and lead result in the most toxic conditions for Hyalella azteca . This approach and results can aid in assessing metal toxicity and its potential risk to aquatic biota in ecosystems impacted by historical mining activities.

British Columbia, Washington

Uranium and trace elements in stream sediments as an exploration tool

More than 45 trace elements have been reported in anomalous amounts in the uranium ores. The specific suite of elements associated with any one uranium deposit varies according to deposit type and geologic province. The primary geochemical halo of uranium and associated trace elements in the host rock, together with secondary dispersion halo in soils and alluvium, offers a potential geochemical exploration target. Sediment from streams near low-grade uranium occurrences in arkosic sandstone of the Denver basin, Colorado, and sediment from streams in the igneous and metamorphic terrace near the Midnite mine of eastern Washington have been analyzed for acid-extractable U, Cu,Pb, Zn, Ni, Co, Fe, Mn, Mo, Cd, Cr, Ag, V, and Se, and for total Fe, Mn, Hg, As, and organic C. The -80 mesh fraction of the alluvium downstream from a small uraniferous limonite occurrence in the Denver basin shows anomalous concentrations of U, Pb, As, Ni, Mo, V, Zn, and Se. Anomalous concentrations of U persist farther downstream (as much as 1,000 m) than any of the trace elements. In another stream system southeast of Denver, above-background levels of U, Pb, As, Zn, V, Fe, and Mn occur near a uranium anomaly (defined by other methods) which has no surface mineralization. In the Midnite mine area, sediments of streams draining prospect areas showed anomalous concentrations of uranium (as much as 10 times background), but no accompanying anomalous trace-element concentrations, although analyses of Midnite mine ores show that a broad suite of trace elements are associated with uranium.

Open-File Report

Carbonatite-hosted residual REE deposits

Rare earth elements (REEs) occur in magmatic rocks but are especially enriched in carbonatite and alkaline silicates. If these rocks are chemically weathered, then the REEs may become further enriched within the regolith developed from these rocks. Primary magmatic REE minerals, as well as the various carbonate minerals and apatite, provide the REEs which, under pervasive chemical weathering, are incorporated within low-temperature REE minerals forming within the regolith. Many of these minerals, as well as their textures, are characteristic of this mode of formation. Lateritic conditions of weathering are instrumental in producing a thick, weathered, or regolith, profile, and the roles of sulfide oxidation, fluctuating groundwater tables, and downward mass wasting due to carbonate dissolution are identified as the most important controls on REE enrichment in the regolith.

Book chapter

Mineral commodity summaries 2025

Introduction Each mineral commodity chapter of the 2025 edition of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Commodity Summaries (MCS) includes information on events, trends, and issues for each mineral commodity as well as discussions and tabular presentations on domestic industry structure, Government programs, tariffs, 5-year salient statistics, and world production, reserves, and resources. The MCS is the earliest comprehensive source of 2024 mineral production data for the world. More than 90 individual minerals and materials are covered by two-page synopses. Abbreviations and units of measure and definitions of selected terms used in the report are in Appendix A and Appendix B, respectively. Reserves and resources information is in Appendix C, which includes “Part A—Resource and Reserve Classification for Minerals” and “Part B—Sources of Reserves Data.” A directory of USGS minerals information country specialists and their responsibilities is in Appendix D. The USGS continually strives to improve the value of its publications to users. Constructive comments and suggestions by readers of the MCS 2025 are welcomed.

Mineral Commodity Summaries

Mineral commodity summaries 2026

Introduction Each mineral commodity chapter of the 2026 edition of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Commodity Summaries (MCS) includes information on events, trends, and issues for each mineral commodity as well as discussions and tabular presentations on domestic industry structure, Government programs, tariffs, 5-year salient statistics, and world production, reserves, and resources. The MCS is the earliest comprehensive source of 2025 mineral production data for the world. More than 90 individual minerals and materials are covered by two-page synopses. Abbreviations and units of measure and definitions of selected terms used in the report are in Appendix A and Appendix B, respectively. Reserves and resources information is in Appendix C, which includes “Part A—Resource and Reserve Classification for Minerals” and “Part B—Sources of Reserves Data.” A directory of USGS minerals information country specialists and their responsibilities is in Appendix D. The USGS continually strives to improve the value of its publications to users. Constructive comments and suggestions by readers of the 2026 MCS are welcomed.

Mineral Commodity Summaries

Using a temporary emigration model to estimate abundance of stream fishes from hybrid removal surveys with and without block nets

Monitoring programs are often faced with a decision to allocate resources into either robust spatiotemporal coverage to estimate a population index (e.g., not true abundance) or confirming closed sampling conditions (e.g., with block nets) for an unbiased population estimate at the cost of spatiotemporal coverage. However, making accurate and precise abundance estimates at robust spatiotemporal scales is possible when combining open and closed sampling designs with integrated modeling techniques. We used simulations and a case study of backpack electrofishing surveys in the Santa Ana River, California to test the efficacy of an integrated abundance model (temporary emigration model, TE) to estimate abundance of fishes using removal sampling methods with a hybrid sampling design (sampling with and without block nets during removal sampling). We found that the TE model performed well under most modeling scenarios (sample size, amount of closure violation, number of samples collected during closure), although at least a few samples with block nets were necessary for all parameters to be estimable. When applied to fish surveys in the Santa Ana River, we found that catch of the fishes fit to the TE model (Santa Ana Sucker, Arroyo Chub, Channel Catfish, Largemouth Bass, Yellow Bullhead) showed little evidence that the closure assumption was violated when block nets were not used. Additionally, we found that the abundance of non-native fishes negatively affected the abundance of the native Santa Ana Sucker, which was also found to adversely affect the native fish’s access to critical habitat consisting of gravel and cobble substrate. Our results indicate that the TE model presents a viable solution to common sampling problems that impact many monitoring programs, where precise and accurate population estimates can be made at large spatiotemporal scales even when most samples violate the closure assumption.

California

Velocity-independent dry friction on mica: A realization of ideal Amontons-Coulomb friction

The Amontons-Coulomb friction law assumes that the frictional force between materials is independent of sliding velocity. However, as Coulomb noted, this is a rough approximation, and a second-order dependence of friction on the logarithm of sliding velocity is incorporated in a commonly used ‘rate- and state-dependent’ friction representation. Here we conduct shear experiments on mica, a layer-structured mineral, at temperatures ranging from 25 to 200ºC and under normal stress of 100 MPa. The friction coefficient clearly depends on the logarithmic sliding velocity at 25ºC, but rate sensitivity decreases with increasing temperature until at 200ºC, the friction coefficient is independent of sliding velocity. Our findings could initiate the development of velocity-independent frictional materials, realizing the ideal Amontons-Coulomb friction.

Physical Review Letters

Distinguishing natural from mining-related metal sources by including streambank groundwater data in a stream mass loading study

Distinguishing stream metal loading caused by mine features from that caused by natural background sources remains challenging, yet this distinction is essential for making effective remedial decisions at many legacy mine sites. We combine a stream tracer injection and synoptic sampling study with data from shallow near-stream groundwater wells to estimate left-bank versus right-bank metal loading contributions at the 100-m spatial scale. The study was performed in the East Mancos River, a mountain headwater stream in Colorado, USA. The dominant source of elevated stream metal concentrations could be either groundwater infiltration through right-bank Doyle Mine waste piles or natural acid rock drainage from hydrothermally altered bedrock located mainly on the left bank. For the five metals of concern (Cu, Al, Zn, Cd, and Mn), we find that 15 % of the load contributed by diffuse groundwater inputs in the section potentially influenced by Doyle mine waste originates from the right bank. This right-bank potential mine contribution equates to only 3 % of the total watershed instream load for these metals. Furthermore, apparent 3 H/ 3 He groundwater ages in segments contributing most of the right-bank metal loading are sufficiently old (9–12 yr) to suggest that infiltration through the waste piles, located only 140–180 m from the stream, is unlikely. Estimated potential Doyle mine loading contributions can therefore be considered maximum values. Study results thus indicate that Doyle mine waste piles are a minor source of metal loading under low-flow conditions, and streambank groundwater data can provide valuable additional information in stream mass loading studies.

Colorado

A practical decision tool for marine bird mortality assessments

Given the rise in anthropogenic, environmental, and disease events contributing to marine bird mortality, there is a critical need to improve the rigor of mortality assessments. Deficits in data collection and mortality estimation can hinder a manager’s ability to document the scale of events and assess population level impacts. Therefore, to inform decisions required during activities, such as conservation status assessments or harvest management, organizations may choose to incorporate mortality assessments into response plans. Resources, capacity, and assets to assess mortality vary across jurisdictions (federal, state, Indigenous, local, etc.), and clear guidance to support mortality assessments is often unavailable or not clearly addressed. Here, we present a decision support tool to help managers identify and evaluate survey options to assess bird mortality in a diverse array of scenarios. The objective of the decision tool is to improve data collection and availability, which will increase the ability to estimate mortality robustly, given situation-specific attributes and constraints. This decision tool is designed to guide the response when a mortality event is initially encountered and offers suggestions for assessment and reporting procedures in the absence of other guidance or to complement existing protocols. The decision tool is also meant to inform decision making for response determination and resource allocation. The tool facilitates examination of options for further assessment and monitoring, which users determine by examining questions pertaining to species prioritization, determination of mortality minimum spatial extent, and the potential magnitude of impacts on affected species. Finally, identification of appropriate survey methods that address imperfect detection when a complete census is not possible are determined by exploring location, spatial and temporal extent, and the type of species affected. Ultimately, this decision tool aims to facilitate and improve the standardization of mortality assessments, equipping managers with a practical resource to navigate the decision-making process for marine bird mortality estimation.

Ornithological Applications

Trends and environmental impacts of virtual water trade

Virtual water describes water embedded in the production of goods and offers meaningful insights about the complex interplay between water, trade and sustainability. In this Review, we examine the trends, major players, traded products and key drivers of virtual water trade (VWT). Roughly 20% of water used in global food production is traded virtually rather than domestically consumed. As such, agriculture dominates VWT, with livestock products, wheat, maize, soybean, oil palm, coffee and cocoa contributing over 70% of total VWT. These products are also driving VWT growth, the volume of which has increased 2.9 times from 1986 to 2022. However, the countries leading VWT contributions (with China, the United States, the Netherlands, Germany and India accounting for 34% of the global VWT in 2022) have remained relatively stable over time, albeit with China becoming an increasingly important importer. VWT can mitigate the effects of water scarcity and food insecurity, although there are concerns about the disconnect between consumers and the environmental impacts of their choices, and unsustainable resource exploitation. Indeed, approximately 16% of unsustainable water use and 11% of global groundwater depletion are virtually traded. Future VWT analyses must consider factors such as water renewability, water quality, climate change impacts and socioeconomic implications.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment

An entropic explanation for Gutenberg-Richter scaling

We develop a simple explanation for Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) size scaling of earthquakes on a single fault. We discretize the fault and consider all possible contiguous ruptures at that level of discretization. In this static model, we assume that slip scales with rupture length, and that the rupture rates at each point along the fault are consistent with an a priori long-term slip rate. These simple assumptions define an (under-determined) non-negative least-squares inverse problem. Each solution to this inverse problem is a set of earthquake rates that matches the slip-rate constraint. We use a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to uniformly sample the solution space assuming constant slip rates along the fault. At finer discretizations, deviations from G-R behavior decrease, which is consistent with an entropic pressure towards G-R solutions. When the fault is discretized into 10 or more segments, random solutions found by the MCMC algorithm have G-R size scaling, even though there are trivial solutions that, for example, have earthquakes of only one size. This is because there are simply far more solutions that have G-R scaling; as the problem size increases, the strong degeneracy of GR solutions results in other solutions becoming improbably rare. Also, the entropically favored G-R distribution has a b -value of approximately 1, which agrees with measured b -values in real earthquake catalogs.

JGR Solid Earth

Seasonal migrations and other movements

In the past 25 years new information has been obtained on the migrations and movements of mountain sheep (bighorn [Ovis canadensis], thinhorn [Ovis dalli]). This chapter provides a comprehensive overview of mountain sheep migration and other movements across their broad distribution in western North America. Across the range of mountain sheep, migrations and other seasonal movements define a complex movement portfolio that relates to and supports all aspects of mountain sheep ecology. Bighorn and thinhorn species have examples of migratory behaviors that span the continuum between annual residents and long-distance migrants. Migratory behaviors can be characterized as low- or high-elevation residents; elevational migrations and other variants; and geographic migrants. Native populations that have been extant on the landscape without notable human intervention have greater migratory propensity and more diverse migratory portfolios due to the maintenance of migration through cultural learning and social transmission. Restored and augmented populations, where the population-level knowledge of migration has been lost or greatly reduced, are largely nonmigratory, although translocations show some ability to restore short-distance elevational migrations. Seasonal spring and fall migrations are less common in desert bighorn sheep (O. canadensis spp.) or bighorn sheep living in canyon or prairie breaks landscapes. Mineral lick visitation is important and common across the range of mountain sheep. Managing for migratory diversity can help to sustain migratory behavior in the face of climate change and other anthropogenic pressures, which can limit landscape connectivity between seasonal ranges or alter the spatiotemporal dynamics of regional phenology with cascading effects to other biotic and abiotic interactions such as the need to balance forage and predation risk or the spatial refugia with increased temperatures.

Book chapter