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At least 1,333 records · Page 74Linked to original sources
USGS1971

Estimated subsidence in the Raymond Basin, Los Angeles County, California, for a postulated water-level lowering, 1970-2020

One of the alternate plans for water utilization being considered by the California Department of Water Resources in the Raymond Basin in southern California involves partial mining of ground water during the period 1970-2020, and consequent substantial lowering of water levels. The Department wants to know whether land subsidence would be a problem as a result of the postulated lowering. To answer this question, to the extent that existing leveling data permit, the present study has been made at the request of and in cooperation with the Department of Water Resources. Water levels in the Raymond Basin declined to historic low levels in the mid-thirties, then rose and remained above these lows during most of the forties, fifties, and early sixties. Thus, no additional hydraulic stresses were imposed on the water-bearing deposits during this latter period to induce subsidence. Bench-mark control for the 27-year period, 1933-34 to 1961, suggested 0.2 foot of subsidence for most bench marks in and near the basin. This is attributed to network-adjustment problems rather than actual subsidence. At none of the bench marks studied is there a basis for directly relating subsidence to water-level decline. Limited leveling control during the 1961-68 period is also inconclusive. Unfortunately, no leveling control is available for the pre-1933 period of major water-level decline. Based on subsidence/head-decline ratios of nearby areas, it is concluded that subsidence in Raymond Basin would be small if Plan D pumping stresses were effected. Maximum subsidence, occurring where pumping stresses were the greatest and unconsolidated deposits are the thickest, would probably be less than 1 foot. Subsidence would occur so slowly and over such a broad area that no problems should result.

California↗
USGS2024

Disease-smart climate adaptation for wildlife management and conservation

Climate change is a well-documented driver and threat multiplier of infectious disease in wildlife populations. However, wildlife disease management and climate-change adaptation have largely operated in isolation. To improve conservation outcomes, we consider the role of climate adaptation in initiating or exacerbating the transmission and spread of wildlife disease and the deleterious effects thereof, as illustrated through several case studies. We offer insights into best practices for disease-smart adaptation, including a checklist of key factors for assessing disease risks early in the climate adaptation process. By assessing risk, incorporating uncertainty, planning for change, and monitoring outcomes, natural resource managers and conservation practitioners can better prepare for and respond to wildlife disease threats in a changing climate.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2013

Geologic occurrences of erionite in the United States: an emerging national public health concern for respiratory disease

Erionite, a mineral series within the zeolite group, is classified as a Group 1 known respiratory carcinogen. This designation resulted from extremely high incidences of mesothelioma discovered in three small villages from the Cappadocia region of Turkey, where the disease was linked to environmental exposures to fibrous forms of erionite. Natural deposits of erionite, including fibrous forms, have been identified in the past in the western United States. Until recently, these occurrences have generally been overlooked as a potential hazard. In the last several years, concerns have emerged regarding the potential for environmental and occupational exposures to erionite in the United States, such as erionite-bearing gravels in western North Dakota mined and used to surface unpaved roads. As a result, there has been much interest in identifying locations and geologic environments across the United States where erionite occurs naturally. A 1996 U.S. Geological Survey report describing erionite occurrences in the United States has been widely cited as a compilation of all US erionite deposits; however, this compilation only focused on one of several geologic environments in which erionite can form. Also, new occurrences of erionite have been identified in recent years. Using a detailed literature survey, this paper updates and expands the erionite occurrences database, provided in a supplemental file (US_erionite.xls). Epidemiology, public health, and natural hazard studies can incorporate this information on known erionite occurrences and their characteristics. By recognizing that only specific geologic settings and formations are hosts to erionite, this knowledge can be used in developing management plans designed to protect the public.

Arizona;California;Colorado;Idaho;Montana;New Mexi↗
USGS2022

Wildlife migrations highlight importance of both private lands and protected areas in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Formally protected areas are an important component of wildlife conservation, but face limitations in their effectiveness for migratory species. Improved stewardship of working lands around protected areas is one solution for conservation planning, but private working lands are vulnerable to development. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), ungulates such as elk ( Cervus canadensis ) use both protected areas and private lands throughout their annual migrations. We studied patterns of landownership, protection, and conservation challenges within the ranges of migratory elk in the GYE. We used GPS data from 1088 elk in 26 herds to define herd-level seasonal ranges, and extracted covariates related to landownership and protection, land use, and human infrastructure and development. All elk herds used land encompassing >1 ownership type. Most elk herds (92.3 % of herds, n = 24) used the highest proportion of private land in the winter (mean = 36.2 % private land). Most elk herds' winter ranges contained the highest building densities (mean = 1.24 buildings/km 2 ), fence densities (mean = 1.02 km fence/km 2 ), and cattle grazing (mean = 1.9 cows/km 2 ), compared to migratory and summer ranges. Out of all ranges, 36.5 % of ranges did not have any zoning regulations, indicating the potential for future development. Our results show that elk in the GYE rely on habitat outside of protected areas, and face landscape-scale conservation challenges such as habitat fragmentation from human development, particularly in winter ranges. Future conservation strategies for wildlife in this system need to encompass coordination across both public and private land to ensure migratory connectivity.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2008

The human footprint in the west: a large-scale analysis of anthropogenic impacts.

Anthropogenic features such as urbanization, roads, and power lines, are increasing in western United States landscapes in response to rapidly growing human populations. However, their spatial effects have not been evaluated. Our goal was to model the human footprint across the western United States. We first delineated the actual area occupied by anthropogenic features, the physical effect area. Next, we developed the human footprint model based on the ecological effect area, the zone influenced by features beyond their physical presence, by combining seven input models: three models quantified top-down anthropogenic influences of synanthropic predators (avian predators, domestic dog and cat presence risk), and four models quantified bottom-up anthropogenic influences on habitat (invasion of exotic plants, human-caused fires, energy extraction, and anthropogenic wildland fragmentation). Using independent bird population data, we found bird abundance of four synanthropic species to correlate positively with human footprint intensity and negatively for three of the six species influenced by habitat fragmentation. We then evaluated the extent of the human footprint in relation to terrestrial (ecoregions) and aquatic systems (major rivers and lakes), regional management and conservation status, physical environment, and temporal changes in human actions. The physical effect area of anthropogenic features covered 13% of the western United States with agricultural land (9.8%) being most dominant. High-intensity human footprint areas (class 8 – 10) overlapped highly productive low-elevation private landholdings and covered 7% of the western United States compared to 48% for low-intensity areas (class 1 – 3), which were confined to low-productivity high-elevation federal landholdings. Areas within 1 km of rivers were more affected by the human footprint compared to lakes. Percentage human population growth was higher in low-intensity human footprint areas. The disproportional regional effects of the human footprint on landscapes in the western United States create a challenge to management of ecosystems and wildlife populations. Using footprint models, managers can plan land use actions, develop restoration scenarios, and identify areas of high conservation value at local landscapes within a regional context. Moreover, human footprint models serve as a tool to stratify landscapes for studies investigating floral and faunal response to human disturbance intensity gradients.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2004

Nutrient concentrations in Upper and Lower Echo, Fallen Leaf, Spooner, and Marlette Lakes and associated outlet streams, California and Nevada, 2002-03

Five lakes and their outlet streams in the Lake Tahoe Basin were sampled for nutrients during 2002-03. The lakes and streams sampled included Upper Echo, Lower Echo, Fallen Leaf, Spooner, and Marlette Lakes and Echo, Taylor, and Marlette Creeks. Water samples were collected to determine seasonal and spatial concentrations of dissolved nitrite plus nitrate, dissolved ammonia, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, dissolved orthophosphate, total phosphorus, and total bioreactive iron. These data will be used by Tahoe Regional Planning Agency in revising threshold values for waters within the Lake Tahoe Basin. Standard U.S. Geological Survey methods of sample collection and analysis were used and are detailed herein. Data collected during this study and summary statistics are presented in graphical and tabular form.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2018

Rio Grande transboundary integrated hydrologic model and water-availability analysis, New Mexico and Texas, United States, and Northern Chihuahua, Mexico

Errata **September 28, 2018: The purpose of a USGS Open-file report (OFR) is dissemination of information that must be released immediately to fill a public need or information that is not sufficiently refined to warrant publication in one of the other USGS series. As part of that refinement process, an error was discovered in one of the input data sets of the Rio Grande Transboundary Integrated Hydrologic Model (RGTIHM) that this OFR was based upon. The error involved the assignment of storage properties to “phantom cells.” Phantom cells are required for most variants of MODFLOW that use a structured finite-difference grid when individual stratigraphic layers are represented as separate layers. Using phantom cells is a common practice that allows separate model layers to be maintained without having to combine stratigraphic layers into equivalent model layers or to use an unstructured grid. Typically, phantom cell horizontal hydraulic conductivities and storage properties are set to a small number and vertical hydraulic conductivities are set to a number large enough to allow vertical flow between the vertically adjacent layers. In the RGTIHM, the specific storage properties of the phantom cells for the upper (RGTIHM layers 3 and 4), middle (RGTIHM layers 5 and 6), and lower (RGTIHM layers 7 and 8) members of the Santa Fe Group were inadvertently assigned a value of 1 feet -1 . The revision of these specific storage values to a small number (1.0 x 10 -09 feet -1 ) required additional trial-and-error model calibration and a new sensitivity analysis. After calibration, the overall model fit remained similar to the fit described in the OFR, but the fit for many individual features such as project water available for diversions at the American Canal and Acequia Madre improved due to the reduction in flow coming from lower layers. Overall, there is still an average net depletion of groundwater flow, and the conclusions of the report are not changed. The revised average annual groundwater flow depletion simulated for the period 1953-2014 is -1,480 acre-feet/year for the entire model region, and -3,660 acre-feet/year for the portion of the model in the United States. The final version of the model will be the basis of the USGS Scientific Investigations Report that will supersede this OFR. An updated Model Archive of RGTIHM is available upon request to the USGS California Water Science Center. The corrected version of the model WAS the basis for the USGS Scientific Investigations Report that SUPERSEDED this Open-File Report.** Abstract Changes in population, agricultural development and practices (including shifts to more water-intensive crops), and climate variability are increasing demands on available water resources, particularly groundwater, in one of the most productive agricultural regions in the Southwest—the Rincon and Mesilla Valley parts of Rio Grande Valley, Doña Ana and Sierra Counties, New Mexico, and El Paso County, Texas. The goal of this study was to produce an integrated hydrological simulation model to help evaluate water-management strategies, including conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater for historical conditions, and to support long-term planning for the Rio Grande Project. This report describes model construction and applications by the U.S. Geological Survey, working in cooperation and collaboration with the Bureau of Reclamation. This model, the Rio Grande Transboundary Integrated Hydrologic Model, simulates the most important natural and human components of the hydrologic system, including selected components related to variations in climate, thereby providing a reliable assessment of surface-water and groundwater conditions and processes that can inform water users and help improve planning for future conditions and sustained operations of the Rio Grande Project (RGP) by the Bureau of Reclamation. Model development included a revision of the conceptual model of the flow system, construction of a Transboundary Rio Grande Watershed Model (TRGWM) water-balance model using the Basin Characterization Model (BCM), and construction of an integrated hydrologic flow model with MODFLOW-One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (referred to as One Water). The hydrologic models were developed for and calibrated to historical conditions of water and land use, and parameters were adjusted so that simulated values closely matched available measurements (calibration). The calibrated model was then used to assess the use and movement of water in the Rincon Valley, Mesilla Basin, and northern part of the Conejos-Médanos Basin, with the entire region referred to as the “Transboundary Rio Grande” or TRG. These tools provide a means to understand hydrologic system response to the evolution of water use in the region, its availability, and potential operational constraints of the RGP. The conceptual model identified surface-water and groundwater inflows and outflows that included the movement and use of water both in natural and in anthropogenic systems. The groundwater-flow system is characterized by a layered geologic sedimentary sequence combined with the effects of groundwater pumping, operation of the RGP, natural runoff and recharge, and the application of irrigation water at the land surface that is captured and reused in an extensive network of canals and drains as part of the conjunctive use of water in the region. Historical groundwater-level fluctuations followed a cyclic pattern that were aligned with climate cycles, which collectively resulted in alternating periods of wet or dry years. Periods of drought that persisted for one or more years are associated with low surface-water availability that resulted in higher rates of groundwater-level decline. Rates of groundwater-level decline also increased during periods of agricultural intensification, which necessitated increasing use of groundwater as a source of irrigation water. Agriculture in the area was initially dominated by alfalfa and cotton, but since 1970 more water-intensive pecan orchards and vegetable production have become more common. Groundwater levels substantially declined in subregions where drier climate combined with increased demand, resulting in periods of reduced streamflows. Most of the groundwater was recharged in the Rio Grande Valley floor, and most of the pumpage and aquifer storage depletion was in Mesilla Basin agricultural subregions. A cyclic imbalance between inflows and outflows resulted in the modeled cyclic depletion (groundwater withdrawals in excess of natural recharge) of the groundwater basin during the 75-year simulation period of 1940–2014. Changes in groundwater storage can vary considerably from year to year, depending on land use, pumpage, and climate conditions. Climatic drivers of wet and dry years can greatly affect all inflows, outflows, and water use. Although streamflow and, to a minor extent, precipitation during inter-decadal wet-year periods replenished the groundwater historically, contemporary water use and storage depletion could have reduced the effects of these major recharge events. The average net groundwater flow-rate deficit for 1953–2014 was estimated to be about 8,990 acre-feet per year.

New Mexico, Northern Chihuahua, Texas↗
USGS2019

Geomorphic survey of North Fork Eagle Creek, New Mexico, 2017

About one-quarter of the water supply for the Village of Ruidoso, New Mexico, is derived from groundwater pumping along North Fork Eagle Creek in the Eagle Creek Basin near Alto, New Mexico. Because of concerns regarding the effects of groundwater pumping on surface-water hydrology in the Eagle Creek Basin and the effects of the 2012 Little Bear Fire, which resulted in substantial losses of vegetation in the basin, the monitoring of North Fork Eagle Creek for short-term geomorphic change has been required by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Lincoln National Forest, as part of the permitting decision that allows for the continued pumping of the production wells. The monitoring of short-term geomorphic change in North Fork Eagle Creek began in June 2017 with a geomorphic survey of the stream reach located between the North Fork Eagle Creek near Alto, New Mexico, streamflow-gaging station (USGS site 08387550) and the Eagle Creek below South Fork near Alto, New Mexico, streamflow-gaging station (USGS site 08387600). The 2017 geomorphic survey was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Village of Ruidoso, and was the first in a planned series of five annual geomorphic surveys. The results of the 2017 geomorphic survey are summarized and interpreted in this report and are provided in their entirety in its companion data release. The study reach is 1.86 miles long, and large sections of the reach are characterized by intermittent streamflow. Where water is normally present (including at the upper and lower portions of the reach near the streamflow-gaging stations), the discharge typically remains below 2 cubic feet per second throughout the year. Therefore, if geomorphic change is to occur, it will likely be driven by seasonal high-flow events. Discharge records from streamflow-gaging stations in the Eagle Creek Basin indicated that high-flow events in the basin (with peaks above 50 cubic feet per second) typically occurred during the North American monsoon months of July, August, and September. Additionally, the records appear to indicate that, as expected, overland runoff and “flashy” responses to rainfall have increased in the 5 years since the 2012 Little Bear Fire. For the 2017 geomorphic survey of North Fork Eagle Creek, cross sections were established and surveyed at 14 locations along the study reach. Cross-section survey results indicated that channel characteristics (including channel width and area) varied widely along the study reach. Also, as part of the survey, woody debris accumulations and pools in the channel of the study reach were identified, cataloged, photographed, and surveyed for location. There were 58 woody debris accumulations and 14 pools found in the study reach. On the basis that debris jams could be a driver of geomorphic change in North Fork Eagle Creek, woody debris accumulations were classified according to their debris jam potential. The burn marks found on some woody debris indicated that the 2012 Little Bear Fire may be a contributing factor to the volume of debris in North Fork Eagle Creek. However, the woody debris present at the time of the survey did not appear to have substantially affected the geomorphic state of the study reach. Further, the structure and composition of the woody debris accumulations indicated that, under high-flow conditions, most woody debris would likely be transported downstream and out of the study reach without causing substantial geomorphic change through further jamming.

New Mexico↗
USGS1959

Progress report on the investigations of bauxite deposits in the eastern part of Kauai, Hawaii

Investigations of bauxite deposits on Kauai by the U. S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the State of Hawaii were begun July 1, 1959. The investigations, as planned, are to consist of two phases, each of two years duration. The geological investigations of the bauxite and associated rocks in the field and a considerable amount of chemical and mineralogical work in the laboratory are planned for completion during the first two years of the project. During this phase, a geologist and an assistant will be working on Kauai and geologists, mineralogists, and chemists will be analyzing and studying samples of the bauxite in laboratories of the Geological Survey at Beltsville, Maryland, and Washington, D. C. The work during the second phase of the investigations will be carried on at Beltsville and Washington and will consist of completion of chemical and mineralogical investigations, compilation of maps, analysis of field and laboratory data including determination of the size and quality of the bauxite deposits in the eastern part of Kauai, mineralogical research on bauxite samples, and preparation of a final geological report.

Hawaii↗
USGS2010

Field Surveys of Rare Plants on Santa Cruz Island, California, 2003-2006: Historical Records and Current Distributions

Santa Cruz Island is the largest of the northern Channel Islands located off the coast of California. It is owned and managed as a conservation reserve by The Nature Conservancy and the Channel Islands National Park. The island is home to nine plant taxa listed in 1997 as threatened or endangered under the federal Endangered Species Act, because of declines related to nearly 150 years of ranching on the island. Feral livestock were removed from the island as a major conservation step, which was part of a program completed in early 2007 with the eradication of pigs and turkeys. For the first time in more than a century, the rare plants of Santa Cruz Island have a chance to recover in the wild. This study provides survey information and living plant materials needed for recovery management of the listed taxa. We developed a database containing information about historical collections of the nine taxa and used it to plan a survey strategy. Our objectives were to relocate as many of the previously known populations as possible, with emphasis on documenting sites not visited in several decades, sites that were poorly documented in the historical record, and sites spanning the range of environmental conditions inhabited by the taxa. From 2003 through 2006, we searched for and found 39 populations of the taxa, indicating that nearly 80 percent of the populations known earlier in the 1900s still existed. Most populations are small and isolated, occupying native-dominated habitat patches in a highly fragmented and invaded landscape; they are still at risk of declining through population losses. Most are not expanding beyond the edges of their habitat patches. However, most taxa appeared to have good seed production and a range of size classes in populations, indicating a good capacity for plant recruitment and population growth in these restricted sites. For these taxa, seed collection and outplanting might be a good strategy to increase numbers of populations for species recovery. Several taxa have particular problems evidenced by lack of fruit set, very small population sizes, or unstable habitats. We collected seeds of all but two taxa for seed banking, and live cuttings of two clonal shrubs for cultivation at the Santa Barbara Botanic Garden. The survey data, seeds and cuttings provide a baseline and a foundation for planning, conducting, and tracking recovery of the nine federally listed plant taxa of Santa Cruz Island.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2020

Rio Grande transboundary integrated hydrologic model and water-availability analysis, New Mexico and Texas, United States, and northern Chihuahua, Mexico

Changes in population, agricultural development and practices (including shifts to more water-intensive crops), and climate variability are increasing demands on available water resources, particularly groundwater, in one of the most productive agricultural regions in the Southwest—the Rincon and Mesilla Valley parts of Rio Grande Valley, Doña Ana and Sierra Counties, New Mexico, and El Paso County, Texas. The goal of this study was to produce an integrated hydrological simulation model to help evaluate water-management strategies, including conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater for historical conditions, and to support long-term planning for the Rio Grande Project. This report describes model construction and applications by the U.S. Geological Survey, working in cooperation and collaboration with the Bureau of Reclamation. This model, the Rio Grande Transboundary Integrated Hydrologic Model, simulates the most important natural and human components of the hydrologic system, including selected components related to variations in climate, thereby providing a reliable assessment of surface-water and groundwater conditions and processes that can inform water users and help improve planning for future conditions and sustained operations of the Rio Grande Project (RGP) by the Bureau of Reclamation. Model development included a revision of the conceptual model of the flow system, construction of a Transboundary Rio Grande Watershed Model (TRGWM) water-balance model using the Basin Characterization Model, and construction of an integrated hydrologic flow model with MODFLOW-One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model version 2 (referred to as MF-OWHM2). The hydrologic models were developed for and calibrated to historical conditions of water and land use, and parameters were adjusted so that simulated values closely matched available measurements (calibration). The calibrated model was then used to assess the use and movement of water in the Rincon Valley, Mesilla Basin, and northern part of the Conejos-Médanos Basin, with the entire region referred to as the “Transboundary Rio Grande” or TRG. These tools provide a means to understand hydrologic system response to the evolution of water use in the region, its availability, and potential operational constraints of the RGP. The conceptual model identified surface-water and groundwater inflows and outflows that included the movement and use of water both in natural and in anthropogenic systems. The groundwater-flow system is characterized by a layered geologic sedimentary sequence combined with the effects of groundwater pumping, operation of the RGP, natural runoff and recharge, and the application of irrigation water at the land surface that is captured and reused in an extensive network of canals and drains as part of the conjunctive use of water in the region. Historical groundwater-level fluctuations followed a cyclic pattern that were aligned with climate cycles, which collectively resulted in alternating periods of wet or dry years. Periods of drought that persisted for one or more years are associated with low surface-water availability that resulted in higher rates of groundwater-level decline. Rates of groundwater-level decline also increased during periods of agricultural intensification, which necessitated increasing use of groundwater as a source of irrigation water. Agriculture in the area was initially dominated by alfalfa and cotton, but since 1970 more water-intensive pecan orchards and vegetable production have become more common. Groundwater levels substantially declined in subregions where drier climate combined with increased demand, resulting in periods of reduced streamflows. Most of the groundwater was recharged in the Rio Grande Valley floor, and most of the pumpage and aquifer storage depletion was in Mesilla Basin agricultural subregions. A cyclic imbalance between inflows and outflows resulted in the modeled cyclic depletion (groundwater withdrawals in excess of natural recharge) of the groundwater basin during the 75-year simulation period of 1940–2014. Changes in groundwater storage can vary considerably from year to year, depending on land use, pumpage, and climate conditions. Climatic drivers of wet and dry years can greatly affect all inflows, outflows, and water use. Although streamflow and, to a minor extent, precipitation during inter-decadal wet-year periods replenished the groundwater historically, contemporary water use and storage depletion could have reduced the effects of these major recharge events. The average net groundwater flow-rate deficit for 1953–2014 was estimated to be about 1,090 acre-feet per year.

Chihuahua, New Mexico, Texas↗
USGS2026

The Appalbees menu: A multiyear, multilocus metagenetic assessment of pollen foraging by Appalachian Bombus affinis workers

Background Detailed studies of foraging behavior are needed for scientific management of the endangered rusty-patched bumblebee ( Bombus affinis ) in the disjunct and ecologically differentiated habitats it presently occupies. Current knowledge gaps hinder recovery planning but are challenging to redress through direct observation of rare interactions in the field. Methods We used genetic metabarcoding to characterize the taxonomic composition of pollen collected by B. affinis workers in the Appalachian mountains of Virginia and West Virginia from 2021–2023. We developed a custom sequence database of the regional flora and compared results for two independent genetic loci, internal transcribed spacer 1 and internal transcribed spacer 2 (ITS1 and ITS2). Results While ITS2 consistently detected more plant diversity, results from the two loci were broadly concordant with a few notable exceptions. The plant genera Hydrangea , Actaea , Rhododendron , Tilia , and (unexpectedly) Laportea were prominent in midsummer samples, with Rubus a consistent contributor in late spring and early summer. Pea flowers (family Fabaceae) were relatively infrequent but the genera Securigera and Trifolium were detected before the Hydrangea bloom and again in late summer afterwards. The diversity of forage plants was highest in late summer, driven primarily by various genera of Asteraceae. Comparing the current data with previous work indicates regional differentiation in forage plants between Appalachia and the upper Midwest, but also allows ‘consensus’ forage sources that are supported by multiple lines of evidence and shared between regions to be tabulated. These results should help managers focus survey efforts for this endangered species and plan habitat enhancements.

Illinois, Virginia, West Virginia, Wisconsin↗
USGS2007

USGS Tampa Bay Pilot Study

Many of the nation's estuaries have been environmentally stressed since the turn of the 20th century and will continue to be impacted in the future. Tampa Bay, one the Gulf of Mexico's largest estuaries, exemplifies the threats that our estuaries face (EPA Report 2001, Tampa Bay Estuary Program-Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan (TBEP-CCMP)). More than 2 million people live in the Tampa Bay watershed, and the population constitutes to grow. Demand for freshwater resources, conversion of undeveloped areas to resident and industrial uses, increases in storm-water runoff, and increased air pollution from urban and industrial sources are some of the known human activities that impact Tampa Bay. Beginning on 2001, additional anthropogenic modifications began in Tampa Bat including construction of an underwater gas pipeline and a desalinization plant, expansion of existing ports, and increased freshwater withdrawal from three major tributaries to the bay. In January of 2001, the Tampa Bay Estuary Program (TBEP) and its partners identifies a critical need for participation from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in providing multidisciplinary expertise and a regional-scale, integrated science approach to address complex scientific research issue and critical scientific information gaps that are necessary for continued restoration and preservation of Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay stakeholders identified several critical science gaps for which USGS expertise was needed (Yates et al. 2001). These critical science gaps fall under four topical categories (or system components): 1) water and sediment quality, 2) hydrodynamics, 3) geology and geomorphology, and 4) ecosystem structure and function. Scientists and resource managers participating in Tampa Bay studies recognize that it is no longer sufficient to simply examine each of these estuarine system components individually, Rather, the interrelation among system components must be understood to develop conceptual and predictive modeling tools for effective ecosystem adaptive management. As a multidisciplinary organization, the USGS possesses the capability of developing and coordinating an integrated science strategy for estuarine research founded on partnerships and collaborative efforts, multidisciplinary teams of scientists, and integrated field work, data analysis and interpretation, and product development. The primary role of the USGS in Tamps Bay research was defined with our partners based upon this capability to address estuarine issues using an integrated science approach with a regional perspective and within a national context to complement the numerous ongoing scien efforts by state and local agencies that address local issues within Tamp Bay. Six primary components of the USGS Tamp Bay Study address critical gaps within each of the the four estuarine system components and focus on: 1.) Examining how natural and man-made physical changes affect ecosystem health through mapping and modeling. 2.) Identifying sources and quality of groundwater, surface water, and sediment, 3.) Identifying sources and quality of groundwater, surface water, and sediment, 4.) Assessing the natural and man-made changes affecting wetland health and restoration, 5.) Identifying and measuring the impact of urbanization on seafloor habitats, Providing a web-based digital information management system of information for scientists and the public, including a system that supports the work of those officials who must make decisions that affect the state of the bay. The Tampa Bay Study is in its sixth year and will continue through September 2007. This paper presents a non-inclusive summary of key findings associated with the six primary project components listed above. Component 4 (above) is described in detail in the following chapter 13. More information on the Tampa Bay Study is available from our on-line digital information system for the Tampa Bay Study at http://gulfsci.usgs.gov.

Florida↗
USGS2005

The role of fire in structuring sagebrush habitats and bird communities

Fire is a dominant and highly visible disturbance in sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystems. In lower elevation, xeric sagebrush communities, the role of fire has changed in recent decades from an infrequent disturbance maintaining a landscape mosaic and facilitating community processes to frequent events that alter sagebrush communities to exotic vegetation, from which restoration is unlikely. Because of cheatgrass invasion, fire-return intervals in these sagebrush ecosystems have decreased from an historical pattern (pre-European settlement) of 30 to >100 yr to 5-15 yr. In other sagebrush communities, primarily higher elevation ecosystems, the lack of fire has allowed transitions to greater dominance by sagebrush, loss of herbaceous understory, and expansion of juniper-pinyon woodlands. Response by birds living in sagebrush habitats to fire was related to the frequency, size, complexity (or patchiness), and severity of the burns. Small-scale fires that left patchy distributions of sagebrush did not influence bird populations. However, large-scale fires that resulted in large grassland expanses and isolated existing sagebrush patches reduced the probability of occupancy by sagebrush-obligate species. Populations of birds also declined in sagebrush ecosystems with increasing dominance by juniper ( Juniperus spp.) and pinyon ( Pinus spp.) woodlands. Our understanding of the effects of fire on sagebrush habitats and birds in these systems is limited. Almost all studies of fire effects on birds have been opportunistic, correlative, and lacking controls. We recommend using the large number of prescribed burns to develop strong inferences about cause-and-effect relationships. Prescribed burning is complicated and highly contentious, particularly in low-elevation, xeric sagebrush communities. Therefore, we need to use the unique opportunities provided by planned burns to understand the spatial and temporal influence of fire on sagebrush landscapes and birds. In particular, we need to develop larger-scale and longer-term research to identify the underlying mechanisms that produce the patterns of bird responses to fire in sagebrush ecosystems.

Studies in Avian Biology↗
USGS1997

Statistical power analysis in wildlife research

Statistical power analysis can be used to increase the efficiency of research efforts and to clarify research results. Power analysis is most valuable in the design or planning phases of research efforts. Such prospective (a priori) power analyses can be used to guide research design and to estimate the number of samples necessary to achieve a high probability of detecting biologically significant effects. Retrospective (a posteriori) power analysis has been advocated as a method to increase information about hypothesis tests that were not rejected. However, estimating power for tests of null hypotheses that were not rejected with the effect size observed in the study is incorrect; these power estimates will always be ≤ 0.50 when bias adjusted and have no relation to true power. Therefore, retrospective power estimates based on the observed effect size for hypothesis tests that were not rejected are misleading; retrospective power estimates are only meaningful when based on effect sizes other than the observed effect size, such as those effect sizes hypothesized to be biologically significant. Retrospective power analysis can be used effectively to estimate the number of samples or effect size that would have been necessary for a completed study to have rejected a specific null hypothesis. Simply presenting confidence intervals can provide additional information about null hypotheses that were not rejected, including information about the size of the true effect and whether or not there is adequate evidence to 'accept' a null hypothesis as true. We suggest that (1) statistical power analyses be routinely incorporated into research planning efforts to increase their efficiency, (2) confidence intervals be used in lieu of retrospective power analyses for null hypotheses that were not rejected to assess the likely size of the true effect, (3) minimum biologically significant effect sizes be used for all power analyses, and (4) if retrospective power estimates are to be reported, then the α -level, effect sizes, and sample sizes used in calculations must also be reported.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2023

Integrated rangeland fire management strategy actionable science plan completion assessment— Climate and weather topic, 2015–20

Loss and degradation of sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) rangelands due to an accelerated invasive annual grass-wildfire cycle and other stressors are significant management, conservation, and economic issues in the western U.S. These sagebrush rangelands comprise a unique biome spanning 11 states, support over 350 wildlife species, and provide important ecosystem services that include stabilizing the economies of western communities. Impacts to sagebrush ecosystem processes over large areas due to the annual grass-wildfire cycle necessitated the development of a coordinated, science-based strategy for improving efforts to achieve long-term protection, conservation, and restoration of sagebrush rangelands, which was framed in 2015 under the Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy (IRFMS). Central to this effort was the development of an Actionable Science Plan (Plan) that identified 37 priority science needs (hereinafter, “Needs”) for informing the actions proposed under the five topics (Fire, Invasives, Restoration, Sagebrush and Sage-Grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ), Climate and Weather) that were part of the collective focus of the IRFMS. Notable keys to this effort were identification of the Needs co-produced by managers and researchers, and a focus on resulting science being “actionable.” Substantial investments aimed at fulfilling the Needs identified in the Plan have been made since its release in 2016. While the state of the science has advanced considerably, the extent to which knowledge gaps remain relative to identified Needs is relatively unknown. Moreover, new Needs have likely emerged since the original strategy as results from actionable science reveal new questions and possible (yet untested) solutions. A quantifiable assessment of the progress made on the original science Needs can identify unresolved gaps and new information that can help inform prioritization of future research efforts. This report details a systematic literature review that evaluated how well peer-reviewed journal articles and formal technical reports published between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2020, addressed four Needs identified under the Climate and Weather topic in the Plan. The topic outlined research Needs broadly focused on understanding the potential effects of climate change on vegetative resilience to inform restoration of sagebrush rangelands. We established the level of progress towards addressing each Need following a standardized set of criteria, and developed summaries detailing how research objectives nested within Needs identified in the Plan (hereinafter, “Next Steps”) were either addressed well, partially addressed or remain outstanding (that is, addressed poorly) in the literature through 2020. Our searches resulted in the inclusion of 92 science products that at least partially addressed a Need identified in the Climate and Weather topic. The Needs that were well and partially addressed included: studies of the complex set of climatic relationships that influence sagebrush rangeland restoration and seeding success; the identification of seed collection areas across the range of environmental variability inhabited by target restoration species; and develop predictive models to assess targeted restoration species’ responses to mid-century climatic conditions. The Need addressed poorly was the identification of native plant species, genotypes and ecotypes, and seed mixes that may be resilient to a changing climate. The information provided in this assessment will assist updating the Plan, and can inform updates of other relevant science planning documents as needed.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2024

Paleogene Earth perturbations in the US Atlantic Coastal Plain (PEP-US): Coring transects of hyperthermals to understand past carbon injections and ecosystem responses

The release of over 4500 Gt (gigatonnes) of carbon at the Paleocene–Eocene boundary provides the closest geological analog to modern anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. The cause(s) of and responses to the resulting Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) and attendant carbon isotopic excursion (CIE) remain enigmatic and intriguing despite over 30 years of intense study. CIE records from the deep sea are generally thin due to its short duration and slow sedimentation rates, and they are truncated due to corrosive bottom waters dissolving carbonate sediments. In contrast, PETM coastal plain sections along the US mid-Atlantic margin are thick, generally having an expanded record of the CIE. Drilling here presents an opportunity to study the PETM onset to a level of detail that could transform our understanding of this important event. Previous drilling in this region provided important insights, but existing cores are either depleted or contain stratigraphic gaps. New core material is needed for well-resolved marine climate records. To plan new drilling, members of the international scientific community attended a multi-staged, hybrid scientific drilling workshop in 2022 designed to maximize not only scientifically and demographically diverse participation but also to protect participants' health and safety during the global pandemic and to reduce our carbon footprint. The resulting plan identified 10 sites for drill holes that would penetrate the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K–Pg) boundary, targeting the pre-onset excursion (POE), the CIE onset, the rapidly deposited Marlboro Clay that records a very thick CIE body, and other Eocene hyperthermals. The workshop participants developed several primary scientific objectives related to investigating the nature and the cause(s) of the CIE onset as well as the biotic effects of the PETM on the paleoshelf. Additional objectives focus on the evidence for widespread wildfires and changes in the hydrological cycle, shelf morphology, and sea level during the PETM as well as the desire to study both underlying K–Pg sediments and overlying post-Eocene records of extreme hyperthermal climate events. All objectives address our overarching research question: what was the Earth system response to a rapid carbon cycle perturbation?

Scientific Drilling↗
USGS2026

Deep learning error post-processing improves stochastic watershed modeling

Hydrologic extremes, including floods and droughts, pose substantial societal risks that are expected to intensify with climate change. Deterministic watershed models (DWMs) remain a mainstay for modeling these extremes, but lack explicit representation of uncertainty, limiting their utility for risk-informed planning. Stochastic watershed models (SWMs) address this limitation by generating ensembles of streamflow via models of observed DWM residuals. However, most SWMs struggle with the complex dependence between DWM residuals and the underlying hydrologic state, which can complicate stochastic simulations under nonstationary climates. Deep learning (DL) models, whether used as standalone models or post-processors for process-based DWMs, offer a pathway to address this challenge by reducing conditional dependence. In this study, we evaluate SWMs applied to seven models: three process-based models (PRMS, Hymod, and HBV), their hybrid process-DL counterparts, and a pure DL DWM, focusing on daily simulations and extremes under both historical conditions and synthetic climate change scenarios. Results for a case study watershed in Massachusetts show that SWMs applied to hybrid or pure DL DWMs consistently outperform those applied to process-based DWMs. However, an SWM applied to the pure DL model exhibits weaknesses at low flows for this study basin, underscoring the value of hybrid approaches. Extending the analysis across 73 additional basins demonstrates that these improvements are robust and generalizable statewide. This work highlights the potential of a DL-enhanced stochastic watershed modeling framework to advance hydrologic risk prediction under changing climate conditions, offering a scalable methodology for integrating uncertainty into watershed modeling for long-term planning.

Journal of Hydrology↗