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Automated, near real-time ground-motion processing at the U.S. Geological Survey

We describe automated ground‐motion processing software named gmprocess that has been developed at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in support of near‐real‐time earthquake hazard products. Because of the open‐source development process, this software has benefitted from the involvement and contributions of a broad community and has been used for a wider range of applications than was initially envisioned. Here, we give an overview and introduction to the software, including how it has leveraged other open‐source libraries. We highlight some key features that gmprocess provides, compare response spectra calculated with the automated processing approach of gmprocess to the response spectra provided by the Next Generation Attenuation projects, and summarize projects that have utilized gmprocess. These use‐cases demonstrate that this software development effort has been successfully leveraged in earthquake research activities both within and outside the USGS.

Seismological Research Letters

Effective site coefficients for the 2024 International Building Code (IBC)

The U.S. National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs), developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), have long been the scientific foundation of seismic design guidelines and have been used to compute design ground motions for construction of new buildings and retrofit of existing buildings in the United States and its territories. The 2018 NSHM is adopted by the 2024 International Building Code (IBC). Prior to the 2018 NSHM update, hazard calculations were required only at one reference site condition defined by V S30 =760 m/s (where V S30 is the time-averaged shear wave velocity from the surface to a depth of 30 m) and three periods (peak ground acceleration, PGA, and pseudo spectral accelerations at periods of 0.2 and 1 s, S s and S 1 ). Site coefficients, F PGA , F a , and F v , were then defined by the Building Seismic Safety Council (BSSC) Provisions Update Committee (PUC) in the site-specific procedures of National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP) Recommended Seismic Provisions to calculate ground motions for other site classes with different V S30 values at the given periods. The design ground motions at other periods were then estimated using a generic spectral shape that was also defined by the BSSC PUC in NEHRP provisions. In recent years, the engineering community has realized there were deficiencies with the F a and F v site coefficients and the generic spectral shape. To avoid potentially dangerous underestimations of design ground motions for long period structures on soft site conditions in high seismicity regions, the BSSC PUC recommended the use of multi-period response spectra (MPRS) in 2017. As a result, the USGS produced multi-period and multi-V S30 response spectral values in the 2018 NSHM for calculations of design ground motions and the site coefficients F a and F v were eliminated from the 2020 NEHRP Provisions. As these site coefficients were widely used inside and outside of the United States, in this study we back-calculate the “effective” site coefficients F a,eff , and F v,eff by comparing MPRS for various site classes with the MPRS for the reference site condition, and discuss the changes that are observed in the 2024 IBC compared to its previous version in 2021. The effective site coefficients are presented for test site locations and their dependence on various factors including period, ground motion intensity, and regional models are discussed. Ratio maps between the new effective site coefficients and the old ones are then presented for soft site classes and for short and long periods. For soft site classes at short periods, the new effective site coefficients are lower than the old site coefficients for high seismicity regions and higher for low seismicity regions. As it was expected, for soft site classes at long periods and high seismicity regions, the new effective site coefficients are much larger than the old site coefficients without imposing the 50% increase as a penalty that was suggested in the 2021 IBC, whereas they could be much smaller if the 50% increase would have been imposed particularly around New Madrid and Charleston high seismicity regions. For low seismicity regions, the long period effective site coefficients can be smaller or larger by 20% compared to the 2021 IBC coefficients.

Conference Paper

Potential impacts of groundwater pumping on stream temperature are greatest in streams with substantial cold groundwater inflows

Groundwater pumping-induced reductions in streamflow (known as ‘streamflow depletion’) have been documented worldwide, but potential impacts of streamflow depletion on stream temperature are not well understood. Here, we use two types of models to identify potential impacts of pumping on stream temperature across the conterminous United States (CONUS) to determine which aspects of a stream's annual thermograph (thermal signatures) can be used to monitor and manage streamflow depletion impacts on stream temperature. We used long-term streamflow and stream temperature data from 30 streamgages across CONUS and surrogate models of streamflow depletion to analyse potential stream temperature impacts at each site. We compared two different stream temperature modelling approaches: (i) a process-based energy balance model and (ii) statistical regression models based on air temperature and stream discharge. We calculated a suite of thermal signatures under depleted and non-depleted conditions for each stream and found that maximum annual 7-day temperature and annual temperature range are potentially the most sensitive to streamflow depletion, with potential changes of at least 2°C at > 70% of the sites when using the process-based model. We also found that the regression-based models predicted much less sensitivity of stream temperature to streamflow depletion than the process-based model. This work provides an initial evaluation and sensitivity analysis of the potential impacts of streamflow depletion on stream temperature. We demonstrate that stream temperature may be most sensitive to pumping in streams with a high proportion of flow sourced from relatively cold groundwater inputs, and that regression-based stream temperature models may underpredict stream temperature changes caused by streamflow depletion.

conterminous United States

Egg thiamine concentrations reflect dietary differences between four hatchery strains, including two morphotypes, of Lake Trout in Lake Ontario

Objective Test whether dietary differences among hatchery strains of Lake Trout Salvelinus namaycush were associated with variation in egg thiamine concentrations and assess the potential for using strain-specific traits to mitigate thiamine deficiency complex (TDC) in Lake Ontario restoration efforts. Methods Stomach content analysis and stable isotope mixing models were used to compare diets among four hatchery strains of Lake Trout, representing lean and humper morphotypes. Egg thiamine concentrations were measured to test whether dietary differences correlated with susceptibility to TDC. Results Significant differences in diet and egg thiamine concentrations were observed among Lake Trout strains. A humper-like morphotype strain exhibited elevated thiamine levels, which were associated with reduced consumption of prey known to degrade thiamine levels when consumed, Alewife Alosa pseudoharengus and Rainbow Smelt Osmerus mordax , and increased reliance on Round Goby Neogobius melanostomus or sculpin species (Slimy Sculpin Cottus cognatus and Deepwater Sculpin Myoxocephalus thompsonii ). These findings support the link between the consumption of Alewife and Rainbow Smelt and thiamine deficiency. Conclusions Our findings support a link between strain-specific dietary preferences and susceptibility to TDC in Lake Trout. Preferential stocking of strains less prone to TDC, such as the strain derived from a humper morph from Lake Superior, could enhance restoration success in Lake Ontario. This strategy may be especially effective given the continued dominance of Alewife in the lake's prey base and the current management priorities supporting fisheries for Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management

Deformed submarine terraces in Puget Sound, Pacific Northwest, indicate only one M >~7.5 earthquake on the Seattle fault zone in the past 11,000 yr

Submerged marine terraces in Puget Sound, deformed across the Seattle fault zone (SFZ), indicate that only one earthquake as large as M~7.5 has occurred in at least the past 11 kyr. Previous paleoseismic studies document a M~7.5 earthquake between 923–4 CE, which uplifted coastal marine terraces by as much as 8 m. We demonstrate that this earthquake was the only such event since ~11 ka by mapping and quantifying deformation of older marine terraces, now submerged in Puget Sound. The submerged terraces, attributed to a late-glacial sea-level lowstand, record both glacial isostatic rebound and tectonic deformation. Vertical offset of the ~11 ka terraces within the SFZ is comparable to that of the marine terraces uplifted in 923 CE, implying no additional large (M>~7.5) earthquake on the SFZ since ~11 ka. This result implies a longer recurrence interval than current hazard estimates, which assumes recurrence of M>7.1 events every 5 kyr. Our mapping of SFZ deformation since ~11 ka also supports fault segmentation and contiguous block uplift between the Seattle and Tacoma fault zones.

Washington

Wetland sedimentation and vegetation patterns near selected highway crossings in West Tennessee

Wetland sedimentation and vegetation patterns at 11 highway crossings in West Tennessee were studied from 1987 to 1989. The purpose of the study was to investigate potential adverse effects of highway crossings on wetlands. Sedimentation rates, determined from root-burial depths, were highly variable. Average rates offine-grained deposition ranged from 0.005 to 0.033 foot per year for stations in locally ponded areas and from -0.002 to 0.039 foot per year for stations in drained areas. Sedimentation rates upstream from highway crossings were not significantly different from downstream rates at 8 of the 11 study sites. Three study sites had significantly greater sedimentation rates downstream. Sand splays were observed downstream from bridges at most study sites. Vegetation patterns and tree growth appear most strongly related to hydropetiod, defined as the average length of time an area is covered by water each year. The influence of sedimentation on tree growth is difficult to separate from the influence of hydroperiod because areas with high sedimentation rates typically have long hydroperiods. Estimated hydroperiod increased no more than 1 percent because of backwater from the highway crossings at the 11 study sites, while the estimated average depth of flood-plain inundation increased by an average of 6 percent.

Tennessee

Lunar analog study using portable gamma-ray neutron detector: Radiochemical mapping of silicic-to-basaltic volcanic terrains in the San Francisco Volcanic Field, Arizona

Studying lunar silicic volcanism provides key insights into the Moon’s crustal evolution, magmatic processes, and volcanic history. The Lunar-VISE (Lunar Vulkan Imaging and Spectroscopy Explorer) mission will investigate the Gruithuisen domes, a unique lunar region hypothesized to have formed through silicic volcanism. Using instruments on a Firefly Aerospace lander and a Honeybee Robotics rover, Lunar-VISE will analyze mineralogy, geochemistry, and surface properties to determine the origin and evolution of the domes, with a gamma-ray and neutron spectrometer (LV-GRNS) among its payload instruments. In preparation for this mission, we conducted preliminary fieldwork using a handheld gamma-ray neutron detector with NaI(Tl) and Cs LiYCl :Ce (CLYC) scintillators. This study focuses on various rhyolitic and basaltic volcanic centers in the San Francisco Volcanic Field (SFVF) near Flagstaff, Arizona—specifically Sugarloaf Peak, Bonito Lava Flow, and Robinson Mountain, a region containing several well-characterized lunar analog sites. The SFVF was selected for this study due to its broad compositional diversity spanning basaltic to rhyolitic compositions, its well-preserved volcanic morphologies, and its extensive use in previous NASA field campaigns and astronaut training exercises, making it an ideal terrestrial laboratory for testing planetary exploration techniques. We measured natural radioactivity, specifically from potassium (K), thorium (Th), and uranium (U) and other elements in their decay chains, which serve as diagnostic tracers of magmatic differentiation and crustal evolution processes, to assess geochemical variability across compositionally diverse terrains. The detector’s sensitivity was assessed across varying concentration levels. Regionally averaged concentrations of radioisotopes were determined by gamma-ray spectroscopy at selected sites. Our measurements reveal significant compositional variations between sites, with Sugarloaf Peak (rhyolitic, silicic dome) exhibiting the highest average radioisotope concentrations (K: 3.29 ± 0.24 wt%, U: 14.35 ± 1.81 ppm, Th: 27.14 ± 2.43 ppm), while Bonito Lava Flow (K: 1.13 ± 0.08 wt%, U: 3.86 ± 0.52 ppm, Th: 7.52 ± 1.02 ppm), and Robinson Mountain (K: 1.46 ± 0.16 wt%, U: 5.59 ± 1.06 ppm, Th: 11.75 ± 1.98 ppm) show lower concentrations aligned with basaltic compositions. Gamma-ray fluxes were elevated by a factor of approximately three to four at Sugarloaf Peak relative to nearby basaltic terrains, consistent with expected geochemical differentiation patterns. Furthermore, at meter scales, proximity to geological features significantly affects measurements. Th concentrations adjacent to a cliff face at Sugarloaf’s base were 28% higher than values measured 3-5 meters away from the same feature, demonstrating localized compositional heterogeneity. Analysis of station-by-station measurements reveals that K, U, and Th concentrations show an elevation trend at Robinson Mountain and generally higher concentrations near Sugarloaf Peak’s summit, suggesting progressive magmatic differentiation and/or the presence of more evolved lithologies at higher elevations. By mapping these elements on Earth using GRNS, we aim to optimize measurement techniques for Lunar-VISE and similar rover-borne missions by demonstrating the applicability of portable GRNS instruments for planetary surface exploration in an analog environment.

Arizona

Rainfall intensification amplifies exposure of American Southwest to conditions that trigger postfire debris flows

Short-duration, high-intensity rainfall can initiate deadly and destructive debris flows after wildfire. Methods to estimate the conditions that can trigger debris flows exist and guidance to determine how often those thresholds will be exceeded under the present climate are available. However, the limited spatiotemporal resolution of climate models has hampered efforts to characterize how rainfall intensification driven by global warming may affect debris-flow hazards. We use novel, dynamically downscaled (3.75-km), convection-permitting simulations of short-duration (15-min) rainfall to evaluate threshold exceedance for late 21st-century climate scenarios in the American Southwest. We observe significant increases in the frequency and magnitude of exceedances for regions dominated by cool- and warm-season rainfall. We also observe an increased frequency of exceedance in regions where postfire debris flows have not been documented, and communities are unaccustomed to the hazard. Our findings can inform planning efforts to increase resiliency to debris flows under a changing climate.

Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah

Assessment of density pattern retention of generalized data for 1:100,000-scale United States topographic maps

Cartographic generalization reduces the complexity of geographic data to produce legible, smaller-scale displays that retain essential information and logical geographic patterns. Generalization is a vital process in topographic map production. An important challenge in this process is managing and evaluating consistency across scale in the density and spatial distribution of map features such as buildings, roads, streams, water bodies, and elevation contours. Density patterns in these features reflect underlying physiographic conditions, which include factors such as bedrock geology, tectonics, climate, and landforms. Assessments of an acceptable level of change in feature density patterns are critical to ensuring the readability, usability, and accuracy of generalized maps and data. Preserving realistic density patterns across mapping scales also supports sustainable development goals in cartography, by helping to prioritize and communicate the relative reliability of geospatial data at specific scales.

Conference Paper

On connecting hydro-social parameters to vegetation greenness differences in an evolving groundwater-dependent ecosystem

Understanding groundwater-dependent ecosystems (i.e., areas with a relatively shallow water table that plays a major role in supporting vegetation health) is key to sustaining water resources in the western United States. Groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) in Colorado have non-pristine temporal and spatial patterns, compared to agro-ecosystems, which make it difficult to quantify how these ecosystems are impacted by changes in water availability. The goal of this study is to examine how key hydrosocial parameters perturb GDE water use in time and in space. The temporal approach tests for the additive impacts of precipitation, surface water discharge, surface water mass balance as a surrogate for surface–groundwater exchange, and groundwater depth on the monthly Landsat normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The spatial approach tests for the additive impacts of river confluences, canal augmentation, development, perennial tributary confluences, and farmland modification on temporally integrated NDVI. Model results show a temporal trend (monthly, 1984–2019) is identifiable along segments of the Arkansas River at resolutions finer than 10 km. The temporal impacts of river discharge correlate with riparian water use sooner in time compared to precipitation, but this result is spatially variable and dependent on the covariates tested. Spatially, areal segments of the Arkansas River that have confluences with perennial streams have increased cumulative vegetation density. Quantifying temporal and spatial dependencies between the sources and effects of GDEs could aid in preventing the loss of a vulnerable ecosystem to increased water demand, changing climate, and evolving irrigation methodologies.

Colorado

Preliminary depth to basement modeling at Salton Sea, California

The San Andreas Fault – Imperial Fault (SAF-IF) transtensional step-over zone along the southern margin of the Salton Sea hosts substantial geothermal production and lithium brine resources. Recent volcanism at the Salton Buttes and active seismicity along the SAFIF fault system highlight active tectonic and magmatic processes that pose natural hazards and may impact energy and mineral production. Characterizing the subsurface architecture and extent of concealed alteration associated with this tectono-magmatic system enhances understanding of these active processes, associated hazards, and resources. We have compiled a gravity database, consisting of new and re-processed existing data, from which we have constructed a new isostatic residual gravity anomaly map of the Salton trough. We have used this new gravity dataset together with a compilation of publicly available borehole data to develop new depth to basement inversion models for the region. These depth to basement models help to constrain basin geometries, inform alteration mapping, and reveal variations in basement rocks. Due to the concealed nature of the complex tectonic framework at the Salton trough, it is necessary to utilize geophysical methods for subsurface characterization. These new depth to basement models are a first step toward constructing 2D and 3D geophysical and geologic models of the Imperial Valley and Salton Sea geothermal area. This analysis complements other geophysical initiatives, including magnetotelluric (MT) modeling (Tokmakoff et al., 2024), magnetic mapping (Glen and Earney, 2023, 2024) and potential field modeling, and seismic studies focused on hazard and resource investigations in the Imperial Valley.

California

Land cover change within wetland complexes at Dixie Meadows, Churchill County, Nevada: 2015 – 2023

Dixie Meadows, Nevada, is a system of geothermal springs and seeps that feed a complex of marshes and wetland meadows that are located within lands managed by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and the Department of Defense (DOD). A previous U.S. Geological Survey report documented variability in satellite imagery-based land cover classifications for seven wetland complexes at near monthly time intervals between October 2015 and January 2022. This report presents additional data, extending analysis to November 2023. Land cover classifications between October 2015 and November 2023 demonstrated an association between vegetation cover characteristics and surface moisture, with Class 1 having dry, bare soil or sparse upland vegetation, Class 2 having moist, bare soil or sparse to small vegetation, Class 3 having dense green vegetation with potentially saturated soil conditions, Class 4 having a mix of shallow surface water, saturated soil, and dense green vegetation, and Class 5 having open surface water. Most of the wetland complexes occur close to spring outflows primarily within land managed by the DOD, though portions are also within BLM lands. The intervening and surrounding landscape outside of the wetland complexes assessed in this study are managed by the BLM. As a result, Class 1 land covers had the largest areal coverage for BLM managed lands. Classes 2 and 3 land covers were primarily mapped inside the wetland complexes and thus had the largest area coverage within DOD managed lands. Class 4 was almost exclusively mapped within the wetland complexes and thus was largely contained within DOD managed lands. Class 5 (open water) was exclusively mapped in and adjacent to a single wetland complex with catchment ponds on land managed by the BLM. The distribution of these land cover classes over the study period was seasonally and annually variable. Land cover areas of Classes 1 and 2 were larger during the spring months. Conversely, land cover areas of Classes 3 and 4 tended to be greatest during the summer or fall. These patterns might be influenced by differences in seasonal water sources and phenology.

Nevada

On algorithmically determined versus traditional macroseismic intensity assignments

The utility of macroseismic data, defined as the effects of earthquakes on humans and the built environment, has been increasingly recognized following the advent of online systems that now produce unprecedented volumes of macroseismic intensity information. Contributed reports from the U.S. Geological Survey “Did You Feel It?” (DYFI) system ( Wald et al ., 1999 ) are used to generate intensity values with an algorithm based on seminal work by Dengler and Dewey (1998) . The algorithm was developed initially to reproduce intensity values assigned by expert opinion using questionnaire results collected by telephone survey. In this article, I discuss reasons why intensity values from (self‐selected) DYFI responses can differ from values that would be assigned by expert opinion given more complete data from randomly selected participants. For example, with the data used by Dengler and Dewey (1998) , intensities near 4 could be determined from the percentage of people who felt shaking in each town. With less spatially rich data from self‐selected participants, this percentage often cannot be determined reliably. Audible noises are key additional diagnostic criteria for modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) 4, but, although the DYFI system includes a question about noise, following Dengler and Dewey (1998) , the DYFI algorithm does not include a noise indicator. At the upper end of the scale, as defined the DYFI algorithm yields a maximum intensity value of 9.05, nominally corresponding to peak ground acceleration of 75% g . These and other factors can result in DYFI values that are low compared to traditional MMI values assigned using expert opinion, even absent factors that can bias traditional MMI assignments. Modern ground‐motion intensity conversion equations determined using DYFI intensities are expected to be appropriate for DYFI intensities, but the results of this study suggest that biases may be introduced if DYFI and traditional intensities are assumed to be interchangeable.

Seismological Research Letters

Magnitude conversion relations create substantial differences in seismic hazard models

Earthquake catalogs are essential data inputs for seismic hazard modeling. Because earthquake magnitudes are reported in a variety of types (e.g., local magnitudes and moment magnitudes), magnitude conversion relationships must be used to convert the different magnitude types present in a catalog to a uniform magnitude type to avoid biases in the hazard computation. However, these conversion relationships are often uncertain and have been shown to sometimes perform poorly. Here, we investigate the sensitivity of the gridded seismicity component of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) to the catalog conversion equations in the Eastern United States. In the 2023 NSHM, magnitudes of various types were converted to moment magnitudes using equations developed by the Central and Eastern United States Seismic Source Characterization for Nuclear Facilities (CEUS‐SSCn), based on least‐squares (LS) regressions made using data from a catalog containing events up through 2008. We recompute these equations using events in the Advanced National Seismic System Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog with multiple magnitudes from 2000 to 2023. Although we prefer the use of orthogonal regressions for our datasets, LS regressions produce broadly similar results, with both approaches exhibiting large deviations from the CEUS‐SSCn conversions, especially at smaller magnitudes. We compare the spatial distribution of annual rates using three different models: (1) the 2023 NSHM conversions, (2) our updated conversions, and (3) no conversions. We find that the choice of conversions leads to substantial differences in the rate forecasts, which can greatly impact the seismic hazard model, particularly in regions with low‐seismicity rates such as the Eastern United States, where the hazard is dominated by gridded seismicity rather than a fault model.

Seismological Research Letters

U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater Climate Response Network—2023

As of October 2023, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) operated more than 660 sites across the United States and its territories as part of the Groundwater Climate Response Network (CRN). The CRN is comprised of wells and springs selected to monitor the effects of climate variability, such as droughts, on groundwater levels and spring discharge nationwide. The CRN includes more than 550 locations with realtime data and more than 100 sites with non-real-time data available to the public on the CRN web mapper and the USGS National Water Dashboard.

General Information Product

Large springs in the Valley and Ridge Province in Tennessee

Approximately 2,700 miscellaneous discharge measurements for 171 large springs in 28 counties of East Tennessee, predominantly within the Valley and Ridge physiographic province, were analyzed statistically and results tabulated to summarize data useful to the Appalachian Valleys-Piedmont Regional Aquifer System Analysis study. The number of measurements at each spring ranged from 1 to 65. Information from each spring includes station numbers, latitude, longitude, spring name and where data are sufficient, an estimate of the mean discharge and the discharge exceeded by 75%, 50%, and 25% of the miscellaneous measurements. Data are referenced to locations on a 1:1,000 ,000-scale map. The highest mean spring discharge was 32.2 cu ft/sec (14,5000 gallons/min).

Tennessee

Regional variations in sea ice and primary productivity in the Bering Sea during Marine Isotope Stage 11

Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 (424-374 ka) has long been an analog for Holocene climate, because it is the most recent interglacial period with similar orbital conditions. However, there is significant global and regional variability in the climate response to MIS 11 warmth. Here, we review sediment core records from across the Bering Sea to investigate changes in paleoceanographic conditions during Marine Isotope Stages 12-10. Sea ice was present over much of the Bering Sea during MIS 11, but today, none of the sites investigated are ever ice-covered. This suggests that sea ice regimes in the Bering Sea during MIS 11 were different to those of the Holocene. There are also regional differences in the response of sea ice to MIS 11 warming. At the Umnak Plateau, Southeastern Bering Sea, sea ice concentrations decline during deglaciation, but they remain high at the slope sites until Peak MIS 11. Sea ice re-advances over the Umnak Plateau during peak interglacial warmth, at the same time that it declines over the slope sites. Late MIS 11 is characterized by high concentrations of seasonal sea ice at the Umnak Plateau, whilst sea ice at the slope sites fluctuates between consolidated and unconsolidated ice cover. This east-west dichotomy may be explained by changes in the behavior of the Aleutian Low. Productivity increases dramatically during deglaciation due to increased upwelling and sea level rise bringing fresh nutrients into the oceans. This is characterized by increased diatom productivity, increased terrestrial carbon deposition, and laminations at all sites.

Alaska

Critical minerals in zinc ore—An update on Earth Mapping Resources Initiative Research in the Boulder Batholith region, Montana

Plain Language Summary U.S. Geological Survey research, in collaboration with Montana Technical University and Montana Bureau of Geology and Mines, is providing key critical mineral information that may have potential for critical mineral production of several mining districts in the Boulder Batholith region, to better understand the abundance and distribution of natural resources within this region. Continued research can be used to show the potential for previously undiscovered critical mineral resources in southwestern Montana and in other parts of the United States.

Montana