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Results for “Nature Climate Change”

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At least 1,333 records · Page 74Linked to original sources

USGS2010

Monitoring and assessment of ocean acidification in the Arctic Ocean-A scoping paper

Carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere is absorbed at the ocean surface by reacting with seawater to form a weak, naturally occurring acid called carbonic acid. As atmospheric carbon dioxide increases, the concentration of carbonic acid in seawater also increases, causing a decrease in ocean pH and carbonate mineral saturation states, a process known as ocean acidification. The oceans have absorbed approximately 525 billion tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, or about one-quarter to one-third of the anthropogenic carbon emissions released since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Global surveys of ocean chemistry have revealed that seawater pH has decreased by about 0.1 units (from a pH of 8.2 to 8.1) since the 1700s due to absorption of carbon dioxide (Raven and others, 2005). Modeling studies, based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) CO2 emission scenarios, predict that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels could reach more than 500 parts per million (ppm) by the middle of this century and 800 ppm by the year 2100, causing an additional decrease in surface water pH of 0.3 pH units. Ocean acidification is a global threat and is already having profound and deleterious effects on the geology, biology, chemistry, and socioeconomic resources of coastal and marine habitats. The polar and sub-polar seas have been identified as the bellwethers for global ocean acidification.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2019

Fire, climate and changing forests

A changing climate implies potential transformations in plant demography, communities, and disturbances such as wildfire and insect outbreaks. How do these dynamics play out in terrestrial ecosystems across scales of space and time? “Vegetation type conversion” (VTC) is a term used to describe abrupt and long-lasting changes in vegetation structure and composition due to various kinds of perturbations. For example, it has long been observed that fire-adapted ecosystems such as the California chaparral shrublands are readily replaced by non-native annual grasses when humans increase fire frequency. Similar effects are being observed in Sonoran Desert plant communities, where invasion by non-native buffelgrass (Cenchrus ciliare) exposes a fire-sensitive plant community to high-intensity fires, which are lethal to the long-lived iconic Sonoran flora such as Saguaro cactus (Carnegiea gigantea). While type conversions following severe disturbance have been observed for some time, the mechanisms that underlay such changes are only recently coming to light. Threshold behavior is of particular concern: as various climate indices pass critical values, some ecosystems may be reaching points of no return where recovery to the earlier state is no longer possible. A recent publication in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, U.S., has now revealed that increased fire severity impairs post-fire forest regeneration, setting the stage for potential large-scale type conversion of western conifer forests.

Nature Plants↗

USGS2023

Application of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to simulate the streamflows and water balance of the Red River Basin, 1980–2016

The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was used to develop and calibrate a streamflow and water balance model for the Red River Basin as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Census, a research effort focused on developing innovative water accounting tools and conducting assessments of water use and availability at regional and national spatial scales. The PRMS is a deterministic model that simulates the effects of climate, land cover, and water use on watershed hydrology on the basis of physical processes and spatial attributes of the watershed. The model was used to estimate streamflow at daily and monthly temporal scales for the 1980–2016 period and to evaluate the impacts of natural and anthropogenic influences on streamflow and water budget components. Sixty-three percent of streamgages were calibrated successfully for the monthly time step and 43 percent of streamgages were successfully calibrated for the daily time step. Some of the challenges of calibrating streamgages included estimating low amounts of streamflow in dry areas of the basin and accurately representing watershed characteristics related to evapotranspiration in the basin, among other factors. The model estimated streamflow with some accuracy for 42 percent and 29 percent of the 73 streamgages used to evaluate the model at monthly and daily time steps, respectively. Relative to no-water-use conditions, water use increased streamflow volumes (that is, return flow from reservoir releases) the most on the main stem of the Red River, the North Fork of the Red River, and the Ouachita River. Water withdrawal decreased streamflow volumes most in the Red River near the outlet of the basin and in Caney Creek. Streamflow volumes on the North Fork of the Red River changed most as a result of water use. The Red River Basin PRMS model provided estimates of streamflow that were limited in their accuracy by (1) the availability of accurate water-use data; (2) the coarse resolution of spatial parameters (such as those for impervious area or plant canopy), which leads to the homogenization of physical features in small watersheds in the model domain; and (3) the accuracy of spatial patterns of precipitation distribution across the model domain. Improvements in the quality and quantity of available water-use data and finer resolution spatial parameter and climate data could lead to the development of better-informed models in the future that are capable of making more accurate estimates of streamflow, because they are more representative of physical and hydrologic conditions in the Red River Basin.

Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas, Oklahoma↗

USGS2023

New indicators of ecological resilience and invasion resistance to support prioritization and management in the sagebrush biome, United States

Ecosystem transformations to altered or novel ecological states are accelerating across the globe. Indicators of ecological resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasion can aid in assessing risks and prioritizing areas for conservation and restoration. The sagebrush biome encompasses parts of 11 western states and is experiencing rapid transformations due to human population growth, invasive species, altered disturbance regimes, and climate change. We built on prior use of static soil moisture and temperature regimes to develop new, ecologically relevant and climate responsive indicators of both resilience and resistance. Our new indicators were based on climate and soil water availability variables derived from process-based ecohydrological models that allow predictions of future conditions. We asked: (1) Which variables best indicate resilience and resistance? (2) What are the relationships among the indicator variables and resilience and resistance categories? (3) How do patterns of resilience and resistance vary across the area? We assembled a large database ( n = 24,045) of vegetation sample plots from regional monitoring programs and derived multiple climate and soil water availability variables for each plot from ecohydrological simulations. We used USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service National Soils Survey Information, Ecological Site Descriptions, and expert knowledge to develop and assign ecological types and resilience and resistance categories to each plot. We used random forest models to derive a set of 19 climate and water availability variables that best predicted resilience and resistance categories. Our models had relatively high multiclass accuracy (80% for resilience; 75% for resistance). Top indicator variables for both resilience and resistance included mean temperature, coldest month temperature, climatic water deficit, and summer and driest month precipitation. Variable relationships and patterns differed among ecoregions but reflected environmental gradients; low resilience and resistance were indicated by warm and dry conditions with high climatic water deficits, and moderately high to high resilience and resistance were characterized by cooler and moister conditions with low climatic water deficits. The new, ecologically-relevant indicators provide information on the vulnerability of resources and likely success of management actions, and can be used to develop new approaches and tools for prioritizing areas for conservation and restoration actions.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2005

Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate

Water availability on the continents is important for human health , economic activity , ecosystem function and geophysical processes . Because the saturation vapour pressure of water in air is highly sensitive to temperature, perturbations in the global water cycle are expected to accompany climate warming . Regional patterns of warming-induced changes in surface hydroclimate are complex and less certain than those in temperature, however, with both regional increases and decreases expected in precipitation and runoff. Here we show that an ensemble of 12 climate models exhibits qualitative and statistically significant skill in simulating observed regional patterns of twentieth-century multidecadal changes in streamflow. These models project 10–40% increases in runoff in eastern equatorial Africa, the La Plata basin and high-latitude North America and Eurasia, and 10–30% decreases in runoff in southern Africa, southern Europe, the Middle East and mid-latitude western North America by the year 2050. Such changes in sustainable water availability would have considerable regional-scale consequences for economies as well as ecosystems.

Nature↗

USGS2020

Keystone predators govern the pathway and pace of climate impacts in a subarctic marine ecosystem

Predator loss and climate change are hallmarks of the Anthropocene yet their interactive effects are largely unknown. Here, we show that massive calcareous reefs, built slowly by the alga Clathromorphum nereostratum over centuries to millennia, are now declining because of the emerging interplay between these two processes. Such reefs, the structural base of Aleutian kelp forests, are rapidly eroding because of overgrazing by herbivores. Historical reconstructions and experiments reveal that overgrazing was initiated by the loss of sea otters, Enhydra lutris (which gave rise to herbivores capable of causing bioerosion), and then accelerated with ocean warming and acidification (which increased per capita lethal grazing by 34 to 60% compared with preindustrial times). Thus, keystone predators can mediate the ways in which climate effects emerge in nature and the pace with which they alter ecosystems.

Science↗

USGS2004

Exceptionally fast growth rate of <100-yr-old tufa, Big Soda Lake, Nevada: Implications for using tufa as a peleoclimate proxy

Large tufa mounds (>3 m tall, with a basal circumference of 5 m) have been discovered on the margin of Big Soda Lake, Nevada, USA. These tufa mounds are rooted at a maximum of 4 m below the current lake surface and are actively forming from groundwater seepage, which can be seen emanating from the top of the tufa mounds. Big Soda Lake is a volcanic crater lake whose water level is maintained exclusively by groundwater. The age of the tufa mounds is well constrained because prior to the development of the Newlands Irrigation Project in 1907, the water level was ???18 m lower than the current lake level. The vertical columnar nature of the tufa mounds indicates that they formed under the lake and not subaerially. Thus, the tufa mounds are <100 yr old and have grown at a rate ???30 mm/yr. Stable oxygen and carbon isotope analyses of tufa carbonate compared to isotopic analyses of groundwater and lake water and hydrochemical data indicate that the fluids responsible for their precipitation are a simple mixture of modern groundwater and lake water and do not reflect a recent climate signature. The exceptionally fast growth of the tufa mounds indicates that large tufa deposits may form almost instantaneously in geologic time. Given this potential for rapid growth and the fact that variations in isotopic compositions of tufa deposits have been interpreted in terms of changes in paleoclimate and changes in the composition of recharge water over thousands of years, care should be taken when trying to determine the significance of variations in isotopic or chemical compositions of tufas that may have been caused by mixing with groundwater. ?? 2004 Geological Society of America.

Geology↗

USGS2024

Numerical modeling of circulation and wave dynamics along the shoreline of Shinnecock Indian Nation in Long Island, New York

The Shinnecock Indian Nation on Long Island, New York, faces challenges of shoreline retreat, saltwater intrusion, and flooding of the Tribal lands under changing climate and rising sea level. However, understanding of the dynamics of tidal circulation and waves and their impacts on the Shinnecock Indian Nation’s shoreline remains limited. This numerical study employs the integrated modeling capabilities of the hydrodynamic model Delft3D-FLOW and the spectral-wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) to investigate the circulation and wave dynamics along the shoreline of Shinnecock Indian Nation. The results of the 1-year long simulation indicate the majority of wind waves approach the Shinnecock Nation shorelines at normal wave angles, with yearly averaged offshore wave height of around 0.2 meter, maximum wave height reaching 0.65 meter, and yearly averaged offshore wave power of approximately 50 watts per meter. Boulders, acting as natural barriers, have been placed along the shoreline to reduce erosive wave forcing. Simulation results indicate the boulders to the north end effectively attenuate wave energy and reduce annual wave power, while the boulders near the two tidal ponds adjacent to the Tribal cemetery only have a slight influence on wave energy. There are large spatial variabilities in wave attenuation and current velocity reduction by the boulders. The model framework developed in this study can be utilized for the optimal design of nature-based solutions, guiding decisions on the placement of living shoreline structures and determining their optimal size. This study further identifies data and knowledge gaps as well as future research opportunities that can enhance the performance of numerical models and contribute to the scientific understanding of coastal processes and facilitate the optimal design of hybrid living shorelines in the future to achieve the maximum protective efficacy. This research can help to inform strategies for safeguarding vulnerable coastal communities and promoting resilience and sustainability of shoreline along the Shinnecock Indian Nation.

New York↗

USGS2022

Hydrologic modeling of a perennial firn aquifer in southeast Greenland

A conceptual model, based on field observations and assumed physics of a perennial firn aquifer near Helheim Glacier (southeast Greenland), is evaluated via steady-state 2-D simulation of liquid water flow and energy transport with phase change. The simulation approach allows natural representation of flow and energy advection and conduction that occur in vertical meltwater recharge through the unsaturated zone and in lateral flow within the saturated aquifer. Agreement between measured and simulated aquifer geometry, temperature, and recharge and discharge rates confirms that the conceptual field-data-based description of the aquifer is consistent with the primary physical processes of groundwater flow, energy transport and phase change. Factors that are found to control simulated aquifer configuration include surface temperature, meltwater recharge rate, residual total-water saturation and capillary fringe thickness. Simulation analyses indicate that the size of perennial firn aquifers depends primarily on recharge rates from surface snowmelt. Results also imply that the recent aquifer expansion, likely due to a warming climate, may eventually produce lakes on the ice-sheet surface that would affect the surface energy balance.

Journal of Glaciology↗

USGS2011

Understanding processes affecting mineral deposits in humid environments

Recent interdisciplinary studies by the U.S. Geological Survey have resulted in substantial progress toward understanding the influence that climate and hydrology have on the geochemical signatures of mineral deposits and the resulting mine wastes in the eastern United States. Specific areas of focus include the release, transport, and fate of acid, metals, and associated elements from inactive mines in temperate coastal areas and of metals from unmined mineral deposits in tropical to subtropical areas; the influence of climate, geology, and hydrology on remediation options for abandoned mines; and the application of radiogenic isotopes to uniquely apportion source contributions that distinguish natural from mining sources and extent of metal transport. The environmental effects of abandoned mines and unmined mineral deposits result from a complex interaction of a variety of chemical and physical factors. These include the geology of the mineral deposit, the hydrologic setting of the mineral deposit and associated mine wastes, the chemistry of waters interacting with the deposit and associated waste material, the engineering of a mine as it relates to the reactivity of mine wastes, and climate, which affects such factors as temperature and the amounts of precipitation and evapotranspiration; these factors, in turn, influence the environmental behavior of mineral deposits. The role of climate is becoming increasingly important in environmental investigations of mineral deposits because of the growing concerns about climate change.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS1994

Temporal variability of shoreline positions and coastal wetlands along lower Green Bay, Oconto and Brown counties, Wisconsin

The positions of shorelines and the areal extent of adjacent coastal wetland tracts in the Great Lakes region have exhibited substantial temporal variability during both prehistoric and historical times. Shoreline migration has resulted in environmental problems such as flooding and the coastal erosion of lakefront property, as well as the destruction of coastal wetland resources. In the Great Lakes region, the main natural cause for changes in shoreline position and adjacent wetland area is lake-level fluctuations, which results from two interactive factors. One factor is the glacio-isostatic rebound of the lake basins that has occurred from the end of the late Wisconsin glaciation to the present. This crustal rebounding has resulted in the slow uplifting of previous lake outlets and warping of lake basins, contributing to changing lake levels and shoreline migration. Historic lake-level gauge records indicate modern differential vertical uplift rates that range from 0.26 ft/century in the southern part of the Great Lakes drainage basin to 1.74 ft/century in the northern part of the basin (Larsen, 1989). The second factor contributing to lake-level fluctuations is climate variability, which causes variations in the amount of regional precipitation and evaporation, storm frequency, runoff, and resulting lake levels. Climate variability can occur over a wide spectrum of time scales, from seasonal variations, to longer-term trends of a few years or decades in duration, to trends lasting hundreds of thousands of years. A combination of both climatic variations and glacio-isostatic rebound has resulting in substantial temporal variability of the Great Lakes shorelines and associated coastal wetland tracts during post-glacial times.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2012

Topographic change detection at select archeological sites in Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona, 2007-2010

Human occupation in Grand Canyon, Arizona, dates from at least 11,000 years before present to the modern era. For most of this period, the only evidence of human occupation in this iconic landscape is provided by archeological sites. Because of the dynamic nature of this environment, many archeological sites are subject to relatively rapid topographic change. Quantifying the extent, magnitude, and cause of such change is important for monitoring and managing these archeological sites. Such quantification is necessary to help inform the continuing debate on whether and how controlled releases from Glen Canyon Dam, located immediately upstream of Grand Canyon National Park, are affecting site erosion rates, artifact transport, and archeological resource preservation along the Colorado River in Grand Canyon. Although long-term topographic change resulting from a variety of natural processes is inherent in the Grand Canyon region, continued erosion of archeological sites threatens both the archeological resources and our future ability to study evidence of past cultural habitation. Thus, this subject is of considerable interest to National Park Service managers and other stakeholders in the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program. Understanding the causes and effects of archeological site erosion requires a knowledge of several factors, including the location, timing, and magnitude of the changes occurring in relation to archeological resources, the rates of change, and the relative contribution of potential causes. These potential causes include sediment depletion associated with managed flows from Glen Canyon Dam, site-specific weather and overland flow patterns, visitor impacts, and long-term regional climate change. To obtain this information, highly accurate, spatially specific data are needed from sites undergoing change. Using terrestrial lidar techniques, and building upon three previous surveys of archeological sites performed in 2006 and 2007, we collected two new datasets in April and September 2010 and processed and improved upon existing methods to generate high-accuracy (3 to 5 cm vertical change threshold) topographic change-detection maps for 10 survey areas encompassing 9 archeological sites along the Colorado River corridor. We also used terrestrial lidar techniques to investigate several other metrics for studying archeological site stability, including monitoring cultural structures and artifacts and remotely measuring cryptobiotic soil crust areas. Our topographic change results indicate that 9 of 10 survey areas showed signs of either erosion, deposition, or both during the 2007–2010 time interval and that these changes can be linked to a variety of geomorphic processes, primarily overland flow gullying and aeolian sand transport. In several cases, large (>50 cm) vertical change occurred, and in one case, more than 100 m 3 of sediment was eroded. Further, for all sites monitored throughout the river corridor during this time period, the overall signal was related to erosion rather than deposition. These results highlight the potential for rapid archeological site change in Grand Canyon. Whereas the topographic change results presented herein provide the highest level of change detection yet performed on entire archeological sites in Grand Canyon, additional work in combining these results with site-specific weather, hydrology, and geomorphology data is needed to provide a more thorough understanding of the causes of the documented topographic changes. Linking lidar-derived measurements of topographic changes with these other data sources should provide land managers with a scientific basis for making management decisions regarding archeological resources in Grand Canyon National Park and assist in answering open questions regarding the influence that sediment-depleted flows from Glen Canyon Dam have on archeological site stability.

Arizona↗

USGS2016

Chaparral

One of the most dynamic California ecosystems is chaparral. Dominated by evergreen, sclerophyllous shrubs and small trees, chaparral is the most extensive vegetation type in the state (Figure 1). The nearly impenetrable tangle of stiff branches of this unusual vegetation inhibits exploration, and as a consequence the public know little about its natural history and unique characteristics. This under-valued ecosystem is recognized instead by the threat of its extensive, high-intensity canopy-burning wildfires that characterize the dry summer and fall seasons of the state. Because urban areas frequently share borders or intermix with chaparral, societal interests often conflict with conservation of this ecosystem, and understanding its history and dynamics are a key to appreciating its importance. In this chapter we emphasize the principal structure and dynamics of this important ecosystem. The long summer rainless period has strong impacts on all organisms and, importantly, the droughts influence the fire regime that characterizes chaparral. An ecosystem currently characterized by a specific drought and wildfire regime can expect significant impacts from climate change. Because of its dominance at lower elevations, chaparral also is frequently found at or near the boundaries of urban developments and metropolitan centers. Attempts to suppress fire also affect chaparral dynamics in the long absence of fire. The conflicts between the impacts of chaparral wildfire and human life and structures has been an aspect of California’s history since the beginning, but as development encroaches ever more into chaparral regions, the conflicts have increased. Consequently, understanding this vegetation is important not only because of its significance in understanding ecological evolution and the ecological services provided by chaparral, but also because of its direct impacts on human settlements.

Book chapter↗

USGS2023

Body mass dynamics in wintering mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Body mass in overwintering waterfowl is an important fitness attribute as it affects winter survival, timing of spring migration, and subsequent reproductive success. Recent research in Europe and the western United States indicates body mass of mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ) has increased from the late 1960s to early 2000s. The underlying mechanism is currently unknown; however, researchers hypothesize that increases are due to a more benign winter climate, increased food availability through natural and artificial flooding, introgression of wild mallard populations by game-farm mallards, or shifting of wintering distributions northward. Further investigation of factors related to winter mallard body mass increases and whether this phenomenon is occurring in other major flyways could increase understanding of intrinsic and extrinsic variables influencing waterfowl fitness. Here, we analyzed mallard body mass in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley from 1979 to 2021 to determine sources of temporal variation. We measured hunter-harvested mallards from private hunting clubs, public hunting areas, and duck-plucking businesses. Mallard body mass increased by approximately 6% among all age-sex classes from 1979 to 2021. Average mallard mass increased by about 1.5% per decade but varied substantially among years. Within years, body mass was related to rainfall and river gage height; mallards had greater mass after periods of increased rainfall or river flooding, likely due to increased food availability. Mallard body mass had a marginal negative relationship with severe cold weather (derived using a weather severity index [WSI]). While body mass increased after wet periods within years, there was no relationship of mallard body mass with wet vs dry years, low vs high flood years, or hot vs cold years. Additionally, there was no detectable change in rainfall, river discharge, or temperature from 1979 to 2021. This indicates that rainfall and river height may influence mallard body mass within years, but may not be the primary factor responsible for mass increases over time. Our research confirms changes in mallard body mass are widespread and within-season precipitation and flooding account for much of the observed annual variation. Future research investigating specific mechanisms, such as introgression of game-farm mallard DNA and climate change , may clarify their contribution to mallard body mass change over time.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗

USGS2015

Hydrologic implications of GRACE satellite data in the Colorado River Basin

Use of GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellites for assessing global water resources is rapidly expanding. Here we advance application of GRACE satellites by reconstructing long-term total water storage (TWS) changes from ground-based monitoring and modeling data. We applied the approach to the Colorado River Basin which has experienced multiyear intense droughts at decadal intervals. Estimated TWS declined by 94 km 3 during 1986–1990 and by 102 km 3 during 1998–2004, similar to the TWS depletion recorded by GRACE (47 km 3 ) during 2010–2013. Our analysis indicates that TWS depletion is dominated by reductions in surface reservoir and soil moisture storage in the upper Colorado basin with additional reductions in groundwater storage in the lower basin. Groundwater storage changes are controlled mostly by natural responses to wet and dry cycles and irrigation pumping outside of Colorado River delivery zones based on ground-based water level and gravity data. Water storage changes are controlled primarily by variable water inputs in response to wet and dry cycles rather than increasing water use. Surface reservoir storage buffers supply variability with current reservoir storage representing ∼2.5 years of available water use. This study can be used as a template showing how to extend short-term GRACE TWS records and using all available data on storage components of TWS to interpret GRACE data, especially within the context of droughts.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2002

Rocky Mountain futures: An ecological perspective

The Rocky Mountain West is largely arid and steep, with ecological scars from past human use visible for hundreds of years. Just how damaging were the past 150 years of activity? How do current rates of disturbance compare with past mining, grazing, and water diversion activities? In the face of constant change, what constitutes a "natural" ecosystem? And can a high quality of life be achieved for both human and natural communities in this region. Rocky Mountain Futures presents a comprehensive and wide-ranging examination of the ecological consequences of past, current, and future human activities in the Rocky Mountain region of the United States and Canada. The book brings together 32 leading ecologists, geographers, and other scientists and researchers to present an objective assessment of the cumulative effects of human activity on the region's ecological health and to consider changes wrought by past human use. This combined view of past and present reveals where Rocky Mountain ecosystems are heading, and the authors project what the future holds based upon current economic and social trends and the patterns that emerge from them. The book: examines the biogeographic and paleoenvironmental setting and historical climate that have shaped Rocky Mountain ecosystems traces the direct human influences on landscapes and ecosystems over the past 150 years explores the cumulative effects of past, present, and projected future human activities on tundra, subalpine and montane forests, valleys, grasslands, and waters offers case studies that illustrate specific examples of human influence and current efforts to restore the environment Case studies focus on northern New Mexico; Summit County, Colorado; Flathead Valley, Montana; and Alberta, Canada. Among the contributors are Craig D. Allen, N. Thompson Hobbs, Linda L. Joyce, Robert E. Keane, David Schindler, Timothy R. Seastedt, David Theobald, Diana Tomback, William Travis, Cathy Whitlock, and Jack Stanford. The United Nations has proclaimed 2002 as the International Year of Mountains to increase international awareness of the global importance of mountain ecosystems. The case-based multidisciplinary approach of this book constitutes an important new model for understanding the implications of land-use practices and economic activity on mountains, and will serve a vital role in improving decisionmaking both in the Rocky Mountains and in other parts of the world that face similar challenges.

Book↗

USGS2022

Controlling invasive fish in fluctuating environments: Model analysis of common carp (Cyprinus carpio) in a shallow lake

Climate change can act to facilitate or inhibit invasions of non-native species. Here, we address the influence of climate change on control of non-native common carp (hereafter, carp), a species recognized as one of the “world's worst” invaders across the globe. Control of this species is exceedingly difficult, as it exhibits rapid population growth and compensatory density dependence. In many locations where carp have invaded, however, climate change is altering hydrologic regimes and may influence population demography and efficacy of human control efforts. To further evaluate these processes, we employed a modified version of an age-based population model (CarpMOD), to investigate how hydrologic variability (change in lake area) influences carp population dynamics and control efforts in Malheur Lake, southeastern Oregon, USA. We explored how changes in lake area influence carp populations under three control scenarios: (1) no carp removal, (2) carp removal during low water years, and (3) carp removal during all years. Lake area fluctuations strongly influenced carp populations and the efficacy of carp control. Modeled carp biomass peaked when the lake transitioned from high-to-low levels, and carp biomass declined when lake area transitioned from low-to-high. Removing carp during low water periods—when fish were concentrated into a smaller area—reduced carp populations almost as much as removing carp every year. Furthermore, the effectiveness of control efforts increased with the prevalence and severity of low lake conditions (longer durations of very low lake area). These simulations suggest that a drier climate may naturally decrease carp populations and make them easier to control. However, drier conditions may also negatively affect aquatic ecosystems and potentially have a greater impact than non-native species themselves.

Oregon↗

USGS2025

Rapid recovery of an arctic lake ecosystem from a pulse disturbance caused by thermokarst failure

Due to rapid climate change, arctic ecosystems are experiencing an increase in disturbances including localized land-surface failures caused by melting ground ice (thermokarst failures). These failures result in the mass transport of sediment and organic materials into surface waters, with the potential to dramatically alter aquatic ecosystem function and biotic interactions. We coupled direct comparisons and long-term data of a suite of abiotic and biotic variables in a thermokarst-impacted lake and nearby reference lake to assess the impacts of thermokarst failure. After the thermokarst failure and relative to long-term averages, water transparency was substantially reduced. We hypothesized there would be subsequent changes to lower trophic levels and profound declines in fish foraging efficiency. However, these characteristics were within the range of natural variability and/or rapidly recovered to values within the range of long-term variability. In addition, although there was limited evidence of taxa-specific changes, we did not observe any strong changes in the total relative densities, growth rates, or composition of the bacterioplankton and zooplankton communities, benthic macroinvertebrates, or changes in fish diet, that could be attributed statistically to the thermokarst event. In sum, the thermokarst disturbance had substantial effects on water transparency and some lower trophic levels, which surprisingly were not manifested in higher trophic levels. Overall, the lake ecosystem appeared resistant to thermokarst disturbance with rapid recovery within two years after the disturbance.

Alaska↗