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Land-use classes to characterize watersheds and unsaturated zones in North Carolina

This web site contains the Federal Geographic Data Committee-compliant metadata (documentation) for digital data produced for the North Carolina, Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Public Water Supply Section, Source Water Assessment Program. The metadata are for 11 individual Geographic Information System data sets. An overlay and indexing method was used with the data to derive a rating for unsaturated zone and watershed characteristics for use by the State of North Carolina in assessing more than 11,000 public water-supply wells and approximately 245 public surface-water intakes for susceptibility to contamination. For ground-water supplies, the digital data sets used in the assessment included unsaturated zone rating, vertical series hydraulic conductance, land-surface slope, and land cover. For assessment of public surface-water intakes, the data sets included watershed characteristics rating, average annual precipitation, land-surface slope, land cover, and ground-water contribution. Documentation for the land-use data set applies to both the unsaturated zone and watershed characteristics ratings. Documentation for the estimated depth-to-water map used in the calculation of the vertical series hydraulic conductance also is included.

North Carolina↗

Percent-slope classes to characterize the unsaturated zone in North Carolina

This web site contains the Federal Geographic Data Committee-compliant metadata (documentation) for digital data produced for the North Carolina, Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Public Water Supply Section, Source Water Assessment Program. The metadata are for 11 individual Geographic Information System data sets. An overlay and indexing method was used with the data to derive a rating for unsaturated zone and watershed characteristics for use by the State of North Carolina in assessing more than 11,000 public water-supply wells and approximately 245 public surface-water intakes for susceptibility to contamination. For ground-water supplies, the digital data sets used in the assessment included unsaturated zone rating, vertical series hydraulic conductance, land-surface slope, and land cover. For assessment of public surface-water intakes, the data sets included watershed characteristics rating, average annual precipitation, land-surface slope, land cover, and ground-water contribution. Documentation for the land-use data set applies to both the unsaturated zone and watershed characteristics ratings. Documentation for the estimated depth-to-water map used in the calculation of the vertical series hydraulic conductance also is included.

North Carolina↗

Percent-slope classes to characterize watersheds in North Carolina

This web site contains the Federal Geographic Data Committee-compliant metadata (documentation) for digital data produced for the North Carolina, Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Public Water Supply Section, Source Water Assessment Program. The metadata are for 11 individual Geographic Information System data sets. An overlay and indexing method was used with the data to derive a rating for unsaturated zone and watershed characteristics for use by the State of North Carolina in assessing more than 11,000 public water-supply wells and approximately 245 public surface-water intakes for susceptibility to contamination. For ground-water supplies, the digital data sets used in the assessment included unsaturated zone rating, vertical series hydraulic conductance, land-surface slope, and land cover. For assessment of public surface-water intakes, the data sets included watershed characteristics rating, average annual precipitation, land-surface slope, land cover, and ground-water contribution. Documentation for the land-use data set applies to both the unsaturated zone and watershed characteristics ratings. Documentation for the estimated depth-to-water map used in the calculation of the vertical series hydraulic conductance also is included.

North Carolina↗

Application of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin in the southeastern United States

A hydrologic model of the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River Basin (ACFB) has been developed as part of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center effort to provide integrated science that helps resource managers understand the effect of climate change on a range of ecosystem responses. The hydrologic model was developed as part of the Southeast Regional Assessment Project using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a deterministic, distributed-parameter, process-based system that simulates the effects of precipitation, temperature, and land use on basin hydrology. The ACFB PRMS model simulates streamflow throughout the approximately 50,700 square-kilometer basin on a daily time step for the period 1950–99 using gridded climate forcings of air temperature and precipitation, and parameters derived from spatial data layers of altitude, land cover, soils, surficial geology, depression storage (small water bodies), and data from 56 USGS streamgages. Measured streamflow data from 35 of the 56 USGS streamgages were used to calibrate and evaluate simulated basin streamflow; the remaining gage locations were used for model delineation only. The model matched measured daily streamflow at 31 of the 35 calibration gages with Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency Index (NS) greater than 0.6. Streamflow data for some calibration gages were augmented for regulation and water use effects to represent more natural flow volumes. Time-static parameters describing land cover limited the ability of the simulation to match historical runoff in the more developed subbasins. Overall, the PRMS simulation of the ACFB provides a good representation of basin hydrology on annual and monthly time steps. Calibration subbasins were analyzed by separating the 35 subbasins into five classes based on physiography, land use, and stream type (tributary or mainstem). The lowest NS values were rarely below 0.6, whereas the median NS for all five classes was within 0.74 to 0.96 for annual mean streamflow, 0.89 to 0.98 for mean monthly streamflow, and 0.82 to 0.98 for monthly mean streamflow. The median bias for all five classes was within –4.3 to 0.8 percent for annual mean streamflow, –6.3 to 0.5 percent for mean monthly streamflow, and –9.3 to 1.3 percent for monthly mean streamflow. The NS results combined with the percent bias results indicated a good to very good streamflow volume simulation for all subbasins. This simulation of the ACFB provides a foundation for future modeling and interpretive studies. Streamflow and other components of the hydrologic cycle simulated by PRMS can be used to inform other types of simulations; water-temperature, hydrodynamic, and ecosystem-dynamics simulations are three examples. In addition, possible future hydrologic conditions could be studied using this model in combination with land cover projections and downscaled general circulation model results.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia↗

Assessment of acreage and vegetation change in Florida's Big Bend tidal wetlands using satellite imagery

Fluctuations in sea level and impending development on the west coast of Florida have aroused concern for the relatively pristine tidal marshes of the Big Bend. Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) images for 1986 and 1995 are processed and evaluated for signs of change. The images cover 250 km of Florida's Big Bend Gulf Coast, encompassing 160,000 acres of tidal marshes. Change is detected using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land cover classification. The imagery shows negligible net loss or gain in the marsh over the 9-year period. However, regional changes in biomass are apparent and are due to natural disturbances such as low winter temperatures, fire, storm surge, and the conversion of forest to march. Within the marsh, the most prominent changes in NDVI and in land cover result from the recovery of mangroves from freezes, a decline of transitional upland vegetation, and susceptibility of the marsh edge and interior to variations in tidal flooding.

Florida↗

Evaluation of radar imagery for geological and cartographic applications

The House/Senate conference report on H.R. 4930 (96th Congress), the Department of the Interior and Related Agencies Appropriations bill, 1980, stated that the U.S. Geological Survey should "begin the use of side-looking airborne radar imagery for topographic and geological mapping, and geological resource surveys in promising areas, particularly Alaska." In response to this mandate, the Survey acquired radar data and began scientific studies to analyze and interpret these data. About 70 percent of the project funding was used to acquire radar imagery and to evaluate Alaskan applications. Results of these studies indicate that radar images have a unique incremental value for certain geologic and cartographic applications but that the images are best suited for use as supplemental information sources or as primary data sources in areas of persistent cloud cover. The value of radar data is greatest for geologic mapping and resource surveys, particularly for mineral and petroleum exploration, where the objective is to locate any single feature or group of features that may control the occurrences of these resources. Radar images are considered by oil and gas companies to be worth the cost of data acquisition within a limited area of active exploration. Radar images also have incremental value for geologic site studies and hazard mapping. The need in these cases is TO inventory all geologic hazards to human life, property, resources, and the environment. For other geologic applications, radar images have a relatively small incremental value over a combination of Landsat images and aerial photographs. The value of radar images for cartographic applications is minimal, except when they are used as a substitute for aerial photographs and topographic maps in persistently cloud-covered areas. If conventional data sources are not available, radar images provide useful information on terrain relief, landforms, drainage patterns, and land cover. Screen less lithography is a low-cost method of reproducing the images. The images from modern, commercially available radar systems have good visual quality; they also have better geometric accuracy and higher information content than images from older systems. Images from modern systems, however, also have some of the same disadvantages as those from older systems. The most serious problem is that considerable information is lost in the process of recording the radar return on film. Another problem is that the oblique radar view of the landscape results in interpretations that are biased by look direction. A compromise antenna depression angle also commonly results in inadequate or excessive shadowing in parts of the image. There is a need for high-resolution digital data, not currently available from the private sector, to significantly improve the utility of radar data for geologic and cartographic applications.

Open-File Report↗

U. S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY LAND REMOTE SENSING ACTIVITIES.

USGS uses all types of remotely sensed data, in combination with other sources of data, to support geologic analyses, hydrologic assessments, land cover mapping, image mapping, and applications research. Survey scientists use all types of remotely sensed data with ground verifications and digital topographic and cartographic data. A considerable amount of research is being done by Survey scientists on developing automated geographic information systems that can handle a wide variety of digital data. The Survey is also investigating the use of microprocessor computer systems for accessing, displaying, and analyzing digital data.

Conference Paper↗

Using landscape metrics to characterize towns along an urban-rural gradient

Context Urban-rural gradients are useful tools when examining the influence of human disturbances on ecological, social and coupled systems, yet the most commonly used gradient definitions are based on single broad measures such as housing density or percent forest cover that fail to capture landscape patterns important for conservation. Objectives We present an approach to defining urban–rural gradients that integrates multiple landscape pattern metrics related to ecosystem processes important for natural resources and wildlife sustainability. Methods We develop a set of land cover composition and configuration metrics and then use them as inputs to a cluster analysis process that, in addition to grouping towns with similar attributes, identifies exemplar towns for each group. We compare the outcome of the cluster-based urban-rural gradient typology to outcomes for four commonly-used rule-based typologies and discuss implications for resource management and conservation. Results The resulting cluster-based typology defines five town types (urban, suburban, exurban, rural, and agricultural) and notably identifies a bifurcation along the gradient distinguishing among rural forested and agricultural towns. Landscape patterns (e.g., core and islet forests) influence where individual towns fall along the gradient. Designations of town type differ substantially among the five different typologies, particularly along the middle of the gradient. Conclusions Understanding where a town occurs along the urban-rural gradient could aid local decision-makers in prioritizing and balancing between development and conservation scenarios. Variations in outcomes among the different urban-rural gradient typologies raise concerns that broad-measure classifications do not adequately account for important landscape patterns. We suggest future urban-rural gradient studies utilize more robust classification approaches.

Connecticut. Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗

Selawik National Wildlife Refuge land cover mapping project users guide

Title III of the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act (ANILCA, 1980) established the Selawik National Wildlife Refuge (SNWR). Section 304 of the Act requires the Secretary of Interior to "prepare, and from time to time revise, a comprehensive conservation plan" for the refuge. Before developing a plan for the refuge, the Secretary shall "identify and describe--a) the populations and habitats of the fish and wildlife resources of the refuge; b) the special values of the refuge as well as any other archeological, cultural, ecological, geological, historical, palentological, scenic, or wilderness value of the refuge; c) areas within the refuge that are suitable for use as administrative sites or visitor facilities...; d) present the potential requirements for access with respect to the refuge...; and e) significant problems which may adversely affect the populations and habitats of fish and wildlife identified and described..." (ANILCA, 1980). Vegetation, water, and terrain (elevation, slope, and aspect) are the components of habitat and can be used in the determination of the above requirements. The U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service (USFWS) has the responsibility for collecting the resource information to address the research, management, development and planning requirements identified in Section 304. Because of the brief period provided by the Act for data collection, habitat mapping, and habitat assessment, the USFWS in cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey's EROS Field Office, used digital Landsat multispectral scanner (MSS) data and digital terrain data to produce land cover and terrain maps. A computer assisted digital analysis of Landsat MSS data was used because coverage by aerial photographs was incomplete for the refuge and because the level of detail obtained from Landsat data was adequate to meet most USFWS research, management and planning needs. Relative cost and time requirements were also factors in the decision to use the digital analysis approach.

Alaska↗

Tetlin National Wildlife Refuge land cover mapping project users guide

Title III of the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act of 1980 (ANILCA, 1980) established the Tetlin National Wildlife Refuge (TNWR). Section 304 of the Act requires the Secretary of Interior to "prepare, and from time to time revise, a comprehensive conservation plan" for the refuge. Before developing a plan for the refuge, the Secretary shall identify and describe--a) the populations and habitats of the fish and wildlife resources of the refuge; b) the special values of the refuge as well as any other archeological, cultural, ecological, geological, historical, palentological, scenic, or wilderness value of the refuge; c) areas within the refuge that are suitable for use as administrative sites or visitor facilities… ; d) present the potential requirements for access with respect to the refuge… ; and e) significant problems which may adversely affect the populations and habitats of fish and wildlife identified and described... (ANILCA, 1980). Vegetation, water, and terrain (elevation, slope, and aspect) are the components of habitat and can be used in the determination of the above requirements. The U. S. Fish & Wildlife Service (USFWS) has the responsibility for collecting the resource information to address the research, management, development and planning requirements identified in Section 304. Because of the brief period provided by the Act for data collection, habitat mapping, and habitat assessment, the USFWS in cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey's EROS Field Office, used digital Landsat multispectral scanner data (MSS) and digital terrain data to produce land cover and terrain maps. A computer assisted digital analysis of Landsat MSS data was used because coverage by aerial photographs was incomplete for much of the refuge and because the level of detail, obtained from the analysis of Landsat data, is adequate to meet most USFWS research, management and planning needs. Relative cost and time requirements were also factors in the decision to use the digital analysis approach.

Alaska↗

Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge land cover mapping project user's guide

Title III of the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act (ANILCA, 1980) established the Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge (YFNWR). Section 304 of the Act requires the Secretary of Interior to "prepare, and from time to time revise, a comprehensive conservation plan" for the refuge. Before developing a plan for the refuge, the Secretary shall "identify and describe--a) the populations and habitats of the fish and wildlife resources of the refuge; b) the special values of the refuge as well as any other archeological, cultural, ecological, geological , historical, palentological, scenic, or wilderness value of the refuge; c) areas within the refuge that are suitable for use as administrative sites or visitor facilities...; d) present the potential requirements for access with respect to the refuge...; and e) significant problems which may adversely affect the populations and habitats of fish and wildlife identified and described..." (ANILCA, 1980). Vegetation, water, and terrain (elevation, slope, and aspect) are the components of habitat and can be used in the determination of the above requirements. The U. S. Fish & Wildlife Service (USFWS) has the responsibility for collecting the resource information to address the research, management, development and planning requirements identified in Section 304. Because of the brief period provided by the Act for data collection, habitat mapping, and habitat assessment, the USFWS in cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey's EROS Field Office, used digital Landsat multispectral scanner (MSS) data and digital terrain data to produce land cover and terrain maps. A computer assisted digital analysis of Landsat MSS data was used because coverage by aerial photographs was incomplete for much of the refuge and because the level of detail obtained from Landsat data was adequate to meet most USFWS research, management and planning needs. Relative cost and time requirements were also factors in the decision to use the digital analysis approach.

Alaska↗

Economic effects of western Federal land-use restrictions on U.S. coal markets

Current regulations on land use in the Western United States affect access to surface minable coal resources. This U.S. Geological Survey study analyzes the long-term effects of Federal land-use restrictions on the national cost of meeting future coal demands. The analysis covers 45 years. The U.S. Bureau of Land Management has determined the environmental, aesthetic, and economic values of western Federal coal lands and has set aside certain areas from surface coal mining to protect other valued land uses, including agricultural, environmental, and aesthetic uses. Although there are benefits to preserving natural areas and to developing areas for other land uses, these restrictions produce long-term national and regional costs that have not been estimated previously. The Dynamic Coal Allocation Model integrates coal supply (coal resource tonnage and coal quality by mining cost for 60 coal supply regions) with coal demand (in 243 regions) for the entire United States. The model makes it possible to evaluate the regional economic impacts of coal supply restrictions wherever they might occur in the national coal market. The main factors that the economic methodology considers are (1) coal mining costs, (2) coal transportation costs, (3) coal flue gas desulfurization costs, (4) coal demand, (5) regulations to control sulfur dioxide discharges, and (6) specific reductions in coal availability occurring as a result of land-use restrictions. The modeling system combines these economic factors with coal deposit quantity and quality information--which is derived from the U.S. Geological Survey's National Coal Resources Data System and the U.S. Department of Energy's Demonstrated Reserve Base--to determine a balance between supply and demand so that coal is delivered at minimum cost.

Circular↗

Linking landscape characteristics to mineral site use by band-tailed pigeons in Western Oregon: Coarse-filter conservation with fine-filter tuning

Mineral sites are scarce resources of high ion concentration used heavily by the Pacific Coast subpopulation of band-tailed pigeons. Over 20% of all known mineral sites used by band-tailed pigeons in western Oregon, including all hot springs, have been abandoned. Prior investigations have not analyzed stand or landscape level habitat composition in relation to band-tailed pigeon use of mineral sites. We used logistic regression models to evaluate the influence of habitat types, identified from Gap Analysis Program (GAP) products at two spatial scales, on the odds of mineral site use in Oregon (n = 69 currently used and 20 historically used). Our results indicated that the odds of current use were negatively associated with non-forested terrestrial and private land area around mineral sites. Similarly, the odds of current mineral site use were positively associated with forested and special status (GAP stewardship codes 1 and 2) land area. The most important variable associated with the odds of mineral site use was the amount of non-forested land cover at either spatial scale. Our results demonstrate the utility of meso-scale geographic information designed for regional, coarse-filter approaches to conservation in fine-filter investigation of wildlife-habitat relationships. Adjacent landcover and ownership status explain the pattern of use for known mineral sites in western Oregon. In order for conservation and management activities for band-tailed pigeons to be successful, mineral sites need to be addressed as important and vulnerable resources. Management of band-tailed pigeons should incorporate the potential for forest management activities and land ownership patterns to influence the risk of mineral site abandonment.

Natural Areas Journal↗

Prolonged influence of urbanization on landslide susceptibility

Landslides pose a threat to life and infrastructure and are influenced by anthropogenic modifications associated with land development. These modifications can affect susceptibility to landslides, and thus quantifying their influence on landslide occurrence can help design sustainable development efforts. Although landslide susceptibility has been shown to increase following urban expansion, the long-lasting effect of urbanization on landslide susceptibility remains largely unquantified. Hence, susceptibility maps developed based on inventories from non-urbanized areas may incorrectly evaluate the hazard in urbanized areas. To quantify this effect, we analyzed a landslide inventory from southwestern Pennsylvania, where the pulse of urbanization occurred more than a decade before the inventory was created. Using road density as a proxy for urbanization, the study area was divided into urbanized and non-urbanized areas. Susceptibility patterns were computed using statistical analyses of a post-urbanization landslide inventory together with maps of topographic, land cover, and geologic factors. A pre-urbanization landslide inventory was used as a control. Our findings indicate that urbanization has a decades-long effect on landslide susceptibility, where urbanized areas are generally more susceptible to landslides. In urbanized areas landslides are strongly associated with distance from roads and topographic curvature, whereas in non-urbanized landslides are strongly associated with stratigraphic formation and distance from streams. The consistent differences in susceptibility patterns between urbanized and non-urbanized areas indicate that urbanization has a long-lasting effect on landslide susceptibility and that susceptibility estimates should be made separately for these different environments to account for the persistent influence of urbanization.

Pennsylvania↗

Assessment of spectral, misregistration, and spatial uncertainties inherent in the cross-calibration study

Cross-calibration of satellite sensors permits the quantitative comparison of measurements obtained from different Earth Observing (EO) systems. Cross-calibration studies usually use simultaneous or near-simultaneous observations from several spaceborne sensors to develop band-by-band relationships through regression analysis. The investigation described in this paper focuses on evaluation of the uncertainties inherent in the cross-calibration process, including contributions due to different spectral responses, spectral resolution, spectral filter shift, geometric misregistrations, and spatial resolutions. The hyperspectral data from the Environmental Satellite SCanning Imaging Absorption SpectroMeter for Atmospheric CartograpHY and the EO-1 Hyperion, along with the relative spectral responses (RSRs) from the Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (TM) Plus and the Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer sensors, were used for the spectral uncertainty study. The data from Landsat 5 TM over five representative land cover types (desert, rangeland, grassland, deciduous forest, and coniferous forest) were used for the geometric misregistrations and spatial-resolution study. The spectral resolution uncertainty was found to be within 0.25%, spectral filter shift within 2.5%, geometric misregistrations within 0.35%, and spatial-resolution effects within 0.1% for the Libya 4 site. The one-sigma uncertainties presented in this paper are uncorrelated, and therefore, the uncertainties can be summed orthogonally. Furthermore, an overall total uncertainty was developed. In general, the results suggested that the spectral uncertainty is more dominant compared to other uncertainties presented in this paper. Therefore, the effect of the sensor RSR differences needs to be quantified and compensated to avoid large uncertainties in cross-calibration results.

IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing↗

National Land Cover Database 2019: A comprehensive strategy for creating the 1986-2019 forest disturbance product

The National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2016 products show that, between 2001 and 2016, nearly half of the land cover change in the conterminous United States (CONUS) involved forested areas. To ensure the quality of NLCD land cover and land cover change products, it is important to accurately detect the location and time of forest disturbance. We designed a comprehensive strategy to integrate a continuous time series forest change detection method and a discrete 2-date forest change detection method to produce the NLCD 1986–2019 forest disturbance product, which shows the most recent forest disturbance date between the years 1986 and 2019 for every 2- to 3-year interval. This method, the Time-Series method Using Normalized Spectral Distance (NSD) index (TSUN), uses NSD to detect multi-date forest land cover changes and was shown to be easily extended to a new date even when new images were processed in a different way than previous date images. The discrete 2-date method uses the Multi-Index Integrated Change Analysis (MIICA) method to detect changes between 2-date images. A method based on confidence and object grouping was designed to combine the multiple MIICA outputs to improve change detection accuracy. Finally, an aggregation scheme was implemented to combine the TSUN output, the integrated MIICA results, and ancillary data to produce the NLCD 2019 forest disturbance 1986–2019 product. The initial accuracy assessments from 1,600 samples over 4 Landsat path/rows show that the producer’s and user’s accuracies of the 2001–2019 forest disturbance map are 76% and 74%, respectively. The final CONUS-wide forest disturbance product is provided at https://www.mrlc.gov/nlcd-2019-science-research-products .

conterminous United States↗

Influences of watershed, riparian-corridor, and reach-scale characteristics on aquatic biota in agricultural watersheds

Multivariate analyses and correlations revealed strong relations between watershed and riparian-corridor land cover, and reach-scale habitat versus fish and macroinvertebrate assemblages in 38 warmwater streams in eastern Wisconsin. Watersheds were dominated by agricultural use, and ranged in size from 9 to 71 km 2 Watershed land cover was summarized from satellite-derived data for the area outside a 30-m buffer. Riparian land cover was interpreted from digital orthophotos within 10-, 10-to 20-, and 20-to 30-m buffers. Reach-scale habitat, fish, and macroinvertebrates were collected in 1998 and biotic indices calculated. Correlations between land cover, habitat, and stream-quality indicators revealed significant relations at the watershed, riparian-corridor, and reach scales. At the watershed scale, fish diversity, intolerant fish and EPT species increased, and Hilsenhoff biotic index (HBI) decreased as percent forest increased. At the riparian-corridor scale, EPT species decreased and HBI increased as riparian vegetation became more fragmented. For the reach, EPT species decreased with embeddedness. Multivariate analyses further indicated that riparian (percent agriculture, grassland, urban and forest, and fragmentation of vegetation), watershed (percent forest) and reach-scale characteristics (embeddedness) were the most important variables influencing fish (IBI, density, diversity, number, and percent tolerant and insectivorous species) and macroinvertebrate (HBI and EPT) communities.

Wisconsin↗

Predicting future changes in Muskegon River Watershed game fish distributions under future land cover alteration and climate change scenarios

Future alterations in land cover and climate are likely to cause substantial changes in the ranges of fish species. Predictive distribution models are an important tool for assessing the probability that these changes will cause increases or decreases in or the extirpation of species. Classification tree models that predict the probability of game fish presence were applied to the streams of the Muskegon River watershed, Michigan. The models were used to study three potential future scenarios: (1) land cover change only, (2) land cover change and a 3°C increase in air temperature by 2100, and (3) land cover change and a 5°C increase in air temperature by 2100. The analysis indicated that the expected change in air temperature and subsequent change in water temperatures would result in the decline of coldwater fish in the Muskegon watershed by the end of the 21st century while cool- and warmwater species would significantly increase their ranges. The greatest decline detected was a 90% reduction in the probability that brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis would occur in Bigelow Creek. The greatest increase was a 276% increase in the probability that northern pike Esox lucius would occur in the Middle Branch River. Changes in land cover are expected to cause large changes in a few fish species, such as walleye Sander vitreus and Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, but not to drive major changes in species composition. Managers can alter stream environmental conditions to maximize the probability that species will reside in particular stream reaches through application of the classification tree models. Such models represent a good way to predict future changes, as they give quantitative estimates of the n-dimensional niches for particular species.

Michigan↗