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Monitoring recreation on federally managed lands and waters—Aspects of visitor use

Federally managed public lands and waters receive about 1 billion recreational visits each year. Data on these visitors can aid in guiding policy decisions, managing resources effectively, and communicating the economic contributions of lands and waters. This report explores the methods used by agencies to collect data on aspects of recreational visitor use to Federal lands and waters (apart from visitation numbers, which are the focus of a companion publication). Aspects of recreational visitor use include visitor demographics, recreational activity participation, visitor satisfaction, visitor attitudes and experiences, trip characteristics, and economic contributions. We review practices used to understand aspects of visitor use across seven Federal agencies, revealing similarities such as the use of visitor intercept surveys and coverage of similar topic area, and differences in how survey programs are operationalized and how specific questions on visitor surveys are worded. We also evaluate emerging technologies, such as geolocated social media and mobile device location data, for their potential to aid in understanding aspects of visitor use. This report concludes with potential opportunities to enhance data collection and coordination, ensuring cost-effective data collection and informed decision-making.

SocArXiv

Water quality of the Quaternary and Ada-Vamoosa aquifers on the Osage Reservation, Osage County, Oklahoma, 1997

The project was to provide information on the quality of ground water from rural-domestic-water wells within the Osage Reservation and compare the water-quality to proximity to oil wells. About 38,500 oil wells have been drilled in the Reservation since drilling began in 1896. About 1,480 square miles or 64 percent of the Reservation is within a quarter mile of an oil well. The unconfined Quaternary sand aquifer covers about 315 square miles or about 14 percent of the Reservation and the confined Ada-Vamoosa sandstone aquifer covers about 800 square miles or about 35 percent of the Reservation. Fifty-eight percent of the Quaternary aquifer and 69 percent of the outcrop area of the Ada-Vamoosa aquifer are within a quarter mile of an oil well. One hundred twenty domestic ground-water wells were sampled from the Quaternary and Ada-Vamoosa aquifers. Forty-nine percent of the Reservation is underlain by the aquifers. Ground-water quality is good on most of the Reservation, but the use of domestic-water-supply wells tend to minimize water-quality problems. Existing water-supply wells commonly are located in areas that produce usable volumes of potable water. Several constituents in samples from the Ada-Vamoosa aquifer within a quarter mile of an oil well were significantly greater than from the aquifer not near oil wells. The constituents include specific conductance, dissolved solids, sodium, sulfate, chloride, bromide, and silica. These ions are probably derived from brine water. In the Ada-Vamoosa aquifer subgroups, 57 percent of the samples near oil wells and 24 percent of the samples not near oil wells had dissolved-solids concentrations greater than 500 milligrams per liter. The water quality in the Quaternary and Ada-Vamoosa aquifers is similar in areas where no oil wells have been drilled but is significantly different for several constituents. Median concentrations of major constituents from the Ada-Vamoosa aquifer not near oil wells were less than or equal to values from the Quaternary aquifer. Sixty-four percent of the water-quality samples from the Quaternary and 51 percent from the Ada-Vamoosa aquifers have dissolved-solids concentrations less than the secondary drinking water regulations of 500 milligrams per liter. Fifty-nine percent of the aquifer samples in the Quaternary aquifer subgroups not near oil wells and 70 percent of the samples near oil wells had dissolved solids less than 500 milligrams per liter. Areas in the Ada-Vamoosa aquifer near Hominy, Pershing, and Hula Lake have dissolved-solids concentrations greater than the secondary drinking water regulations. Water-quality samples from the Quaternary aquifer in these areas also have dissolved-solids concentrations greater than 500 milligrams per liter.

Oklahoma

Monitoring recreation on federally managed lands and waters—Aspects of visitor use

Federally managed public lands and waters receive around 1 billion recreational visits each year. Data on these visitors can aid in guiding policy decisions, managing resources effectively, and communicating the economic contributions of lands and waters. This report explores the methods used by agencies to collect data on aspects of recreational visitor use to Federal lands and waters (apart from visitation numbers, which are the focus of a companion publication). Aspects of recreational visitor use include visitor demographics, recreational activity participation, visitor satisfaction, visitor attitudes and experiences, trip characteristics, and economic contributions. We review practices used to understand aspects of visitor use across seven Federal agencies, revealing similarities such as the use of visitor intercept surveys and coverage of similar topic areas, and differences in how survey programs are operationalized and how specific questions on visitor surveys are worded. We also evaluate emerging technologies, such as geolocated social media and mobile device location data, for their potential to aid in understanding aspects of visitor use. This report concludes with potential opportunities to enhance data collection and coordination, ensuring cost- effective data collection and informed decision making.

Scientific Investigations Report

Technique for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods in Kentucky

This report presents flood magnitude and frequency relations applicable to unregulated streams in Kentucky. The relations are based on flood data at 117 gaging stations in Kentucky and 14 in adjacent states having 10 or more years of record not significantly affected by man-made changes. Equations that relate flood magnitude and frequency to contributing drainage area in 16 geographic areas may be used to estimate magnitude of future floods with recurrence intervals of as much as 100 years on gaged and ungaged streams having drainage areas of 10 to 4,300 square miles (25 .9 to 11,100 square kilometers) . Estimating equations are also presented in graphical form for the convenience of the user. Additional graphs are presented to estimate flood magnitude for selected recurrence intervals along the Cumberland, Kentucky, and Ohio Rivers.

Kentucky

Water-quality appraisal of NASQAN stations below impoundments, eastern Tennessee

The National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN) is a network of stations at which systematic and continuing water-quality data are collected. Major objectives of this U.S. Geological Survey program are (1) to depict areal variability of streamflow and water-quality conditions nationwide on a year-by-year basis and (2) to detect long-term changes in streamflow and stream quality. Several NASQAN stations in East Tennessee are downstream from impoundments which have a significant effect on water quality. NASQAN data obtained from the Tennessee River below Watts Bar Dam and the Clinch River below Melton Hill Dam were compared to water-quality data from the basins upstream. The comparison indicates that NASQAN data obtained below impoundment may not be adequate to describe a composite picture of water quality in the accounting unit. Detention time of storage in the impoundments is believed to moderate the range of constituent values observed at the NASQAN stations. Data obtained upstream and downstream from Watts Bar Dam indicate that the water sampled at the NASQAN station comes from stratified layers of the impoundment and is not representative of an integrated sample of water from the impoundment. Values of total recoverable iron suggest that, because of adsorption to sediments in impoundments, some constituents are not accurately described by sampling below impoundments. Relations between water-quality constituents and flow at stations on the Clinch River and Tennessee River are not well defined due to regulation. Direct load computations for many constituents were therefore not possible, which diminished the utility of data from these NASQAN stations to account for quantity versus quality of the water. Load computations were only possible for ionic constituents through use of a continuous specific-conductance record as an intermediary. Compensation for the effects of discharge prior to application of the Seasonal Kendall test for trends could not be done and identification of trends in water-quality constituents caused by some process (source) change was not possible. Some water-quality trends indicated by data from the Clinch and Tennessee Rivers might reflect the decreasing trend in discharge during the 1972-82 water years. Thus the stations below Watts Bar Dam and below Melton Hill Dam do not adequately meet the NASQAN objective to detect and assess long-term changes in stream quality.

Tennessee

Analysis of aquifer framework and properties, Alvahs Lane well field, Cutchogue, New York

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Suffolk County Water Authority, evaluated the aquifer transmissivity and storage properties at the Alvahs Lane well field north of the village of Cutchogue, New York. This analysis of aquifer properties provides the Suffolk County Water Authority with hydrogeologic information needed to develop water supplies to meet the increasing water demands of the residents of Suffolk County, New York. An aquifer test was conducted at the Alvahs Lane well field from October 18 through October 21, 2022, when a production well was pumped at 550 gallons per minute for about 24 hours, and groundwater-level drawdown and recovery were measured in two monitoring wells. The three wells are screened in a glaciofluvial aquifer under unconfined (water table) conditions. Drawdown and recovery data were analyzed with an analytical solution for partial penetration and delayed yield in an unconfined aquifer to provide estimates of the glaciofluvial aquifer properties. Inclusion of lateral aquifer boundaries was not necessary for the analysis to result in satisfactory matches with the observed water-level responses. Aquifer transmissivity was estimated at 32,000 feet squared per day. Assuming a saturated aquifer thickness of 120 feet, this result is equivalent to a horizontal hydraulic conductivity value of 270 feet per day. Specific yield was estimated at 0.15 (dimensionless). The estimated properties are consistent with those of a highly transmissive unconfined aquifer.

New York

Surficial geology and Quaternary tectonics of the Madison Valley and fault zone, Madison, Gallatin, and Beaverhead Counties, southwest Montana

The north-northwest-striking Madison fault is approximately 95 kilometers in length, lying at the confluence of the northeastern Basin and Range province and the Yellowstone tectonic parabola. The fault zone consists primarily of west-dipping normal faults that have east-dipping antithetic faults, which create the Madison Valley graben and several northeast-trending intrabasin faults. The Madison fault and associated sections discussed herein refer to the main west-dipping, range-bounding fault along the eastern side of the valley. Detailed geologic mapping (1:12,000 scale) of the entire fault zone and fault scarp profiling (total of 102 profiles) of the Madison fault reveal greater late Quaternary paleoseismic activity towards the south, including at least three paleoevents along the southern part of the fault that postdate Pinedale glaciation. Early to middle Holocene alluvial fans have vertical surface offsets that average between 2.0 and 3.0 meters and define the characteristic single-event surface offset. Pinedale lateral moraines have vertical surface offsets as great as 12.0 meters. Late Pleistocene to Holocene multiple-event fault scarps show little evidence of beveling, suggesting short seismic recurrence intervals and potential late Pleistocene and Holocene temporal clustering. Long-term average tectonic activity rates indicate slip rates ranging from 0.18–0.6 millimeters per year. Based on a comparison of fault-scarp height versus maximum slope angle of known regression lines developed from other paleoseismic investigations, the most recent event ranges from 5–1 ka. The northern section of the fault zone is defined by multiple normal faults, which detached the hanging walls of Laramide thrust faults within the Paleozoic and Mesozoic strata. This resulted in the partitioning of extension along multiple preexisting structures and less displacement along individual normal fault strands. Structural controls on lateral propagation of individual paleoevents involve the position of lateral ramps along preexisting Laramide contractional faults. This resulted in greater displacement within the larger basement-cored structures along the southern section of the fault zone, where extension is accommodated by one inferred principal basement-involved normal fault. Inferred east-northeast trending, intrabasin, normal faults within the southern half of the fault zone have no late Pleistocene displacement.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming

Miocene evolution of the Humboldt Current

Diatom records from the East Pisco Basin (EPB) of southern Peru and offshore Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Hole 682 A reveal stepwise increases in the primary productivity of the Humboldt Current during the middle and late Miocene. Although diatoms are present back through the late middle Eocene, successively enhanced diatom production occurs during the Miocene in four steps. The first step between 14.2 and 13.8 Ma marks the onset of diatom deposition in the Pisco-0 sequence. A second step at ∼12.9 Ma coincides with a major drop in global sea level during which diatom deposition ceased in the EPB but continued in ODP 682 A as well as in Chile, Ecuador, and Colombia. Beginning at 10.4 to 10.0 Ma, a major increase in diatom sedimentation rates in both the EPB and in ODP 682 A signals an abrupt intensification of the Humboldt Current productivity, which may be related to the closure of the Central American Seaway to deeper water circulation. A fourth step coincides with the transgressive deposition of the diatom-rich Pisco-2 sequence at 8.4 Ma and is enhanced by the onset of the global Late Miocene Biogenic Bloom (8.0–4.5 Ma). Between 7 and 6 Ma, common subtropical diatoms in ODP 682 A contrast with high diatom deposition rates in the EPB, suggesting variable El Niño-La Niña conditions. During this time, fossil vegetation evidence from southern Peru supports the presence of seasonal periods of enhanced rainfall typical of El Niño conditions. The Miocene trend of increasing sea mammal diversity in the EPB parallels these steps, further supporting stepwise enhancement of primary productivity in the Humboldt Current during the Miocene.

Humboldt Current

Collision structures of the Prince William terrane and Chugach terrane docking along the Shumagin and Unimak convergent margins, Alaska, USA

Western Alaska’s convergent margins are composed of tectonostratigraphic terranes. On land, terrane assembly is recognized along boundaries or sutures between neighboring geologic elements with distinctly different origins. In marine areas where rock outcrops are covered by sediment, recognizing terrane sutures is problematic. A fault in seismic dip line 5 of the ALEUT project has been interpreted as a terrane suture. It is imaged intermittently down to the 30+-km-deep plate interface. Processing of ALEUT strike line 7 revealed the suture at ~18 km depths extending 300 km along the margin. Upper structures in line 5 are like the structures of adjacent seismic transects where imaging is only 8−10 km deep. They were previously not recognized as the upper reaches of terrane sutures and show structural details obscured at greater depths. The composite data are the basis for a simple tectonic model of terrane docking.

Alaska

Geology and mineral deposits of the Needle Mountains District, Southwestern Colorado

The Needle Mountains district is set in highly fractured Precambrian granitic rocks that have intruded and metamorphosed older Precambrian metasedimentary rocks. The Precambrian rocks are overlain by outliers of Paleozoic strata and intruded by a late Tertiary stock. Past mineral production reportedly was limited to silver and gold ores presumably taken from small fissure veins. Although the economic potential of the district has not been adequately explored, some evidence indicates potential for base metal deposits.

Colorado

Seismic velocity changes from repetitive seismicity at Mauna Loa prior to and during its 2022 eruption

Mauna Loa’s short-lived eruption from late November to early December 2022 marked the culmination of nearly a decade of elevated seismic activity and geodetic inflation. The volcano has been monitored by a network of permanent, short period and broadband seismometers. I used the continuous waveform data from that network starting in 2012 to generate a catalog of seismicity that enhances the US Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory’s public seismic catalog with four times the number of earthquakes, which were then grouped by waveform similarity. Analysis of subtle delays in the timing of arrivals of scattered waves between pairs of earthquakes in this catalog yields a history of small changes in the shallow seismic velocity structure of the volcano. Seismic velocities have been shown at other volcanoes to change during unrest and eruption. My results show a decrease in seismic velocity centered on the summit beginning in September 2022, corresponding to the onset of a vigorous precursory swarm of seismic activity and shallow inflation. During the eruption itself, I observe large changes due likely to dike opening along the northeast rift zone and deflation of the summit reservoir. However, seismic velocity changes associated with non-volcanic sources such as ground shaking from large earthquakes and meteorological influences at seasonal and diurnal time scales are also observed, and these dominate the velocity changes prior to the eruption. Proper accounting of these effects will be a requirement for use in real-time monitoring, and this work serves as a starting point in that endeavor for Mauna Loa.

Hawaii

Thick- and thin-skinned contractional styles and the tectonic evolution of the northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Colorado, USA

The Sangre de Cristo Mountains of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico, USA, contain an unusual combination of thick- and thin-skinned contractional structures involving both basement and cover rocks in the Laramide Rocky Mountain foreland. These structures are truncated by down-faulted extensional basins to the east and west. Together with synorogenic sediments, these structures preserve a record of the rise of the Ancestral Rocky Mountains, the Laramide orogeny, and Rio Grande rifting. Laramide structures within the mountains provide clues to processes that link the three events and to necessary conditions for thin-skinned and thick-skinned contractional structures to form together in continental interiors. To examine the full variety of structural styles, a portion of the northern Sangre de Cristo fold- and-thrust belt in Colorado was described and interpreted using geologic maps and structural cross-sections. Stratigraphic relations of the Ancestral Rocky Mountain highlands and basin fill were reconstructed from existing maps. These relations allow identification of faults inherited from the Ancestral Rocky Mountains, differentiation of thrust sheets, and in some cases, estimation of the magnitude of displacement. To examine relations between Laramide thrusts and Rio Grande rifting, kinematic data were collected from a thrust fault adjacent to rift faults. Three thrust fault styles were recognized: thin-skinned basement, thin-skinned cover rocks, and thick-skinned basement. Thin-skinned thrusts arising from a hinterland beneath the present San Luis Valley carried sheets of Proterozoic basement rocks northeast over a Laramide foreland. These basement thrusts are interpreted to be faults of the Ancestral Rocky Mountains that reactivated during the Laramide orogeny. The Laramide foreland consists of thin-skinned thrusts and folds in sedimentary cover rocks as young as 49 Ma. Both thin-skinned thrusts in basement and cover rocks are bounded by thick-skinned basement thrusts that moved intermittently throughout the Laramide orogeny. We infer that thin-skinned thrusts form in continental interiors where deformation is focused in weak strata of thick basin fill and in fluid-reaction weakened preexisting faults in basement rocks. Both conditions are met in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Basement thrusts adjacent to the San Luis Valley contain evidence of plastic contractional microstructures overprinted by extensional microstructures that may record the transition from Laramide contraction to Rio Grande extension of the crust.

Colorado

Rebuilding a volcano one lava flow at a time—Visualizing the lava dome-building eruption in the crater of Mount St. Helens, 1982–1986

Between 1980 and 1986, the U.S. Geological Survey made a series of 1:2,000-scale topographic contour maps from aerial photographic surveys to monitor the eruption. These maps were made for operational purposes and were not intended for publication. Since then, advances in technology made it possible to digitize the original, highly detailed hardcopy maps and derive new digital data elevation models of the surface of the lava dome. These digital elevation models allow for the visualization of the progression of the eruption and reveal the rubbly, chaotic surface of the lava flows and dome. Additionally, these new data help fill gaps in the long-term record of topographic changes that have occurred at the volcano since the May 18, 1980, eruption.

Washington

PEST++IES how many iterations & realizations, finding the point of diminishing returns

PEST++IES (White 2018; White et al. 2020) is widely used in the groundwater modeling community for its ability to perform computationally efficient history matching and uncertainty analysis in a highly parameterized context. One primary advantage of using an iterative ensemble smoother is that the number of model runs required per iteration depends on the number of realizations in an ensemble, not the number of parameters in each realization. However, this raises the question: what is the optimal number of realizations and iterations to use for any one model before the point of diminishing returns? Using a modified version of the Freyberg model (Freyberg 1988; Hunt et al. 2020), different parameter and observation scenarios were evaluated for four iterations and ensembles of 10, 25, 50, 100, 250, 500, 1000, and 2000 realizations. To match observations, PEST++IES altered hydraulic conductivity ( k ), both globally across the model and locally at three different pilot point densities, as well as global recharge (via a single multiplier), global river conductance, and individual well flow rates. Risk-based well capture zone results (Fienen et al. 2022a) and estimated hydraulic conductivity fields from each scenario were quantitatively and qualitatively compared against the “truth” model and its outputs. Across the cases examined, ensemble sizes of 100 to 250 realizations and two PEST++IES iterations were generally sufficient to achieve good results.

Groundwater