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Factors affecting the distribution of water-bearing fractures in the bedrock aquifers of West Virginia

Bedrock aquifers cover 23,601 square miles within the State of West Virginia and comprise 97.4 percent of the surficial area within the State; the remaining 2.6 percent (621 square miles) consists of alluvial sand-and-gravel and glacial outwash aquifers bordering the State’s major rivers. While West Virginia’s alluvial aquifers have been studied extensively, bedrock aquifers have only been characterized for studies completed in a few areas in Jefferson, McDowell, and Monroe Counties. Bedrock aquifers are water supplies for public supply, agriculture, industry, and residential homeowner use. In this study, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection Division of Water and Waste Management, provides a statewide assessment of the occurrence and distribution of fractures within bedrock aquifers of the State and the various topographic, physiographic, and lithologic influences controlling the occurrence and distribution of bedrock fractures. The results of this study provide an increased understanding of the distribution of fractures in bedrock aquifers in West Virginia and help to verify trends that have been suspected for many years but were never well documented or verified by data. The results confirmed that the density of fractures and those that were determined to be water bearing decrease significantly with depth. A statistically significant difference in the density of fractures was observed at a depth of 215 feet for wells in the Appalachian Plateaus Physiographic Province’s and in the Valley and Ridge Physiographic Province’s aquifers; a higher density of fractures and water-bearing fractures were above a depth of 215 feet than below that depth. This is an important consideration when drilling wells for residential, commercial, industrial, or agricultural water supply. Abandoned underground coal mines are commonly believed to form large pools of water in the interconnected mine entries in abandoned room and pillar coal mines. Such pools of water can and do exist in abandoned underground coal mines, but many mines lack open entries and are held up by overburden strata and pillars that can collapse and form aquifers comprised of vast interconnected rubble zones (gob), especially in older mines. Data assessed for this study showed that shale-corrected values of effective porosity for limestone aquifers in West Virginia had a median value of 2 percent and an average value of 4 percent and generally are mineralized with low effective porosity. Argillaceous or sandy limestone has a median shale-corrected porosity of 4 percent and an average shale-corrected porosity of 5 percent. The median and average shale-corrected porosity of sandstone aquifers was estimated to be 14 percent, but the median shale-corrected porosity for argillaceous or calcareous sandstone was 5 percent and the average shale-corrected porosity for argillaceous or calcareous sandstone was 6 percent. Even though shale has a relatively high total sonic porosity compared to other lithologies, shale and siltstone had relatively low shale-corrected porosity, ranging from 0 to 2 percent. Well yields were previously documented to be highest in valley settings, lowest on hilltops, and intermediate on hillsides. Transmissivity data provided by this study confirm this general pattern within the Appalachian Plateaus Province; however, the Valley and Ridge Province does not follow this pattern. While still lowest on hilltop settings, the highest well yields were in hillside settings. The trend for the Valley and Ridge Province was likely skewed because of 9 high-yield wells specifically targeting deeper thin limestone units, such as the Tonoloway and Helderberg Limestones, at depths with transmissivity in excess of 2,000 feet squared per day in Mineral County, West Virginia, or targeting karst aquifers in Berkeley, Jefferson, or Greenbrier Counties, West Virginia. Finally, water-bearing fractures have been hypothesized to comprise a small number of all fractures within a typical bedrock well in West Virginia. Data collected for this study support this theory. A total of 3,403 fractures were identified during this study; 3,151 (92.6 percent) of those fractures are low-transmissive, and only 252 (7.4 percent) fractures are water-bearing. Even though a well may contain many fractures, less than 8 percent are considered water-bearing fractures.

West Virginia↗

A Natural History Summary and Survey Protocol for the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher

The Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) has been the subject of substantial research, monitoring, and management activity since it was listed as an endangered species in 1995. When proposed for listing in 1993, relatively little was known about the flycatcher's natural history, and there were only 30 known breeding sites supporting an estimated 111 territories rangewide (Sogge and others, 2003a). Since that time, thousands of presence/absences surveys have been conducted throughout the historical range of the flycatcher, and many studies of its natural history and ecology have been completed. As a result, the ecology of the flycatcher is much better understood than it was just over a decade ago. In addition, we have learned that the current status of the flycatcher is better than originally thought: as of 2007, the population was estimated at approximately 1,300 territories distributed among approximately 280 breeding sites (Durst and others, 2008a). Concern about the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher on a rangewide scale was brought to focus by Unitt (1987), who described declines in flycatcher abundance and distribution throughout the Southwest. E. t. extimus populations declined during the 20th century, primarily because of habitat loss and modification from activities, such as dam construction and operation, groundwater pumping, water diversions, and flood control. In 1991, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) designated the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher as a candidate category 1 species (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 1991). In July 1993, the USFWS proposed to list E. t. extimus as an endangered species and to designate critical habitat under the Act (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 1993). A final rule listing E. t. extimus as endangered was published in February 1995 (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 1995); critical habitat was designated in 1997 (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 1997). The USFWS Service released a Recovery Plan for the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher in 2002 (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 2002), and re-designated critical habitat in 2005 (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 2005).

Techniques and Methods↗

Estimating daily public supply water use by drinking water service area in New Jersey

This report, prepared in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, presents a method for estimating daily public supply water use by drinking water service area systems for New Jersey. The ability to accurately estimate daily public supply water use could help water supply planners in New Jersey better understand and manage the state’s limited water resources and balance the competing needs for freshwater resources. Data sources for this work include daily public supply water-use data from 2016 through 2020 acquired from New Jersey American Water for 15 drinking water service areas and monthly data exported from the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection’s online water transfer data model database (known as NJWaTr). The two datasets were compared by aggregating the daily data to a monthly timescale. Statistical regression analysis was applied to the daily data, along with climate data, to evaluate what factors are influential in estimating daily fluctuations and trends in daily public supply water use. Fifteen regression equations were developed, one for each of the 15 drinking water service area systems for which daily data were acquired. Regression equations for systems that had seasonal patterns performed better than equations for non-seasonal systems. For the test year (2020), the average adjusted coefficient of determination for the linear regression with autoregressive errors model among systems with seasonality was 0.78; the average adjusted coefficient of determination for the linear regression with autoregressive errors model among systems with little or no seasonality was 0.25. The effects of anomalous data in the regression analysis were examined by comparing adjusted coefficient of determination values when the atypical data points were removed versus when they were retained in the analysis. Overall, including the anomalous data did not have a large effect on the results, and thus the data were retained for this study. In addition to developing regression equations, all 589 unique drinking water service area systems in New Jersey were characterized based on socio-economic data and monthly water-use data from NJWaTr. Systems that are located near the New Jersey coast, serve populations larger than 1,970 people, or serve areas that have median property values over $256,250 tended to demonstrate seasonal water-use behaviors. Systems that have mostly urban residential land use tended to show little to no seasonal water-use behaviors. Finally, a method was developed to disaggregate monthly data to a daily timescale and was tested against systems for which daily data were not available. Two regression equation forms were developed to be applied to systems beyond the 15 systems from which the original equations were developed; one equation was developed for use when all drinking water service area systems showed little to no seasonality, and the other equation was developed for use when systems displayed seasonal behavior. To the extent possible, uncertainty and possible sources of error were identified and examined in relation to the regression model equations developed. Additional daily data from these 15 systems (over different years) and daily data from different systems could be used to further evaluate the results of the disaggregation through a comprehensive assessment of error. Further adjustments to the regression equations could be made, ultimately enhancing their accuracy.

New Jersey↗

The Loma Prieta, California, earthquake of October 17, 1989: Tectonic processes and models

If there is a single theme that unifies the diverse papers in this chapter, it is the attempt to understand the role of the Loma Prieta earthquake in the context of the earthquake 'machine' in northern California: as the latest event in a long history of shocks in the San Francisco Bay region, as an incremental contributor to the regional deformation pattern, and as a possible harbinger of future large earthquakes. One of the surprises generated by the earthquake was the rather large amount of uplift that occurred as a result of the reverse component of slip on the southwest-dipping fault plane. Preearthquake conventional wisdom had been that large earthquakes in the region would probably be caused by horizontal, right-lateral, strike-slip motion on vertical fault planes. In retrospect, the high topography of the Santa Cruz Mountains and the elevated marine terraces along the coast should have provided some clues. With the observed ocean retreat and the obvious uplift of the coast near Santa Cruz that accompanied the earthquake, Mother Nature was finally caught in the act. Several investigators quickly saw the connection between the earthquake uplift and the long-term evolution of the Santa Cruz Mountains and realized that important insights were to be gained by attempting to quantify the process of crustal deformation in terms of Loma Prieta-type increments of northward transport and fault-normal shortening.

California↗

A decade of geodetic change at Kīlauea’s summit—Observations, interpretations, and unanswered questions from studies of the 2008–2018 Halemaʻumaʻu eruption

On March 19, 2008, a small explosion heralded the onset of an extraordinary eruption at the summit of Kīlauea Volcano. The following 10 years provided unprecedented access to an actively circulating lava lake located within a region monitored by numerous geodetic tools, including Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), tilt, and gravity. These datasets revealed a range of processes occurring on widely different timescales. Over years, pressure change within the summit magmatic system, determined from ground deformation and lava-lake surface height, seems to have been governed by broad variations in the rate of magma supply from the mantle to the volcano’s shallow magmatic system, as well as changes in the efficiency of East Rift Zone (ERZ) magma transport and eruption. Over weeks to months, intrusions at the summit and along the ERZ, where new eruptive vents commonly formed and intrusions were primed by extension from south-flank motion, were a result of short-term increases in magma supply or waning lava effusion from the ERZ. Waning lava effusion caused magma to back up behind the ERZ eruptive vent all the way to the summit. ERZ intrusions and eruptions caused rapid depressurization of the summit magmatic system, whereas summit intrusions resulted in complex deformation patterns as magma moved to and from two main sub-caldera storage areas. Over hours to days, pressure changes were caused by episodic deflation-inflation (DI) events and possibly small summit intrusions, and deformation of the rim of the summit eruptive vent revealed instabilities that indicated an increased potential for collapse and minor explosive activity. Finally, over timescales of minutes to hours, gas pistoning, summit explosions, very-long-period seismic events, and even the airborne eruptive plume had clear manifestations in geodetic datasets, providing insights into the causes and consequences of those processes. The diversity and quantity of geodetic observations shed important light on this exceptional and well-documented decade-long summit eruption and its accompanying phenomena, yet numerous questions remain about the causal mechanisms, physical processes, and magmatic conditions associated with eruptive and intrusive activity.

Hawaii↗

Simulated mean monthly groundwater-transported nitrogen loads in watersheds on the north shore of Long Island Sound, 1993–2022

Elevated nitrogen loads are pervasive in the Long Island Sound, an estuary that receives freshwater and nutrients from both surface-water and groundwater discharge. Surface-water nitrogen loads to the Long Island Sound are relatively well characterized, but less is known about groundwater-transported nitrogen loads. Prior work on the northern shore of Long Island Sound (Connecticut and areas of New York and Rhode Island) suggested that groundwater travel times are relatively short (median less than 2 years) and that decade-long nutrient legacies are not widespread. Because the travel times are short, groundwater flow and nutrient loads likely vary substantially between months. In the current study, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Long Island Sound Study and the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection, developed a set of models to better characterize spatial and temporal patterns of groundwater-transported nitrogen loading from atmospheric deposition, septic systems, and fertilizers within the study area. The models provide an estimate, with uncertainty, of groundwater-transported nitrogen loads in the study area, filling a key gap in the nitrogen budget for Long Island Sound. The models also highlight the spatial and temporal variation in nitrogen loading throughout the study area. The modeling workflow involved four models. (1) A soil-water-balance model was developed by using the Soil-Water-Balance software to simulate groundwater recharge across the study area for water years 2005 through 2022. The simulated mean monthly recharge from the soil-water-balance model was used as input into a groundwater-flow model. (2) The groundwater-flow model was developed by using the MODFLOW 6 software and data for water years 1993 through 2022 and simulates average monthly hydrologic conditions. The groundwater-flow model was calibrated by using the Iterative Ensemble Smoother method within the PEST++ software. The Iterative Ensemble Smoother method generates an ensemble of sets of parameter values, with each set producing reasonable simulated hydrologic parameter values. (3) An ensemble of MODPATH particle-tracking simulations were run to generate particle flow paths and travel times, with each simulation using a different set of the flow model parameters. (4) A nitrogen load model uses the MODPATH simulation outputs to track nitrogen from the land surface through multiple attenuation zones until it discharges into fresh or saline surface water. As with the groundwater-flow model, the nitrogen model simulated average monthly groundwater-transported nitrogen loads for water years 1993 through 2022. One novel aspect of the nitrogen load model is that the nitrogen attenuation parameters were calibrated to observed nitrogen loads. Across the ensemble of simulated nitrogen loads, the median study-area-wide monthly simulated nitrogen loads from the aquifer to Long Island Sound throughout the year ranged from 900 to 18,600 kilograms of nitrogen per day, with a median load of 5,100 kilograms of nitrogen per day. The simulated loads were based on average monthly conditions for water years 1993 through 2022. Loads were highest during the winter and early spring and lowest during the late summer. However, simulated travel times for groundwater and nitrogen loads discharged to Long Island Sound during summer were longer than travel times for groundwater and loads discharged during the winter, indicating that, on average, groundwater discharged during summer traveled along different, and longer, flow paths, than groundwater discharged during winter. This indicates that summer loads would respond more slowly to changes in nitrogen inputs at the water table than winter loads. Over the entire study area, approximately 15 percent of the simulated load is from atmospheric deposition sources, 30 to 40 percent is from fertilizer, and 50 to 60 percent is from septic systems. The final analysis of the study involved simulating the change in groundwater-transported nitrogen load in response to upgrading septic systems or reducing fertilizing inputs to areas of turf grass. Both management interventions reduced the groundwater-transported nitrogen load, and reductions were greater in areas with greater loads from septic systems or turf-grass fertilizers. The delay between management actions and substantial reductions in groundwater-transported nitrogen loads varied seasonally; loads during the late summer months remained elevated longer than the winter loads.

Connecticut, Rhode Island↗

Diamondback terrapin resource use in a seagrass-dominated coastal bay varies by life stage

Diamondback terrapins, hereafter referred to as terrapins, are the only estuarine turtle species native to North America. However, terrapins are also occasionally found in marine habitats, such as seagrass beds, and yet little is known about how they use those marine habitats. We sampled epidermis from terrapins ( Malaclemys terrapin macrospilota ) inhabiting a seagrass-dominated coastal bay in Northwest Florida and compared resource use among terrapin sexes and life-history stages using the isotopic niche and mixing models. Terrapins were generalist foragers, and their diets varied by sex and life stage, as has been reported elsewhere. Basal resource mixing models indicated the terrapin food web was based primarily on Thalassia testudinum for adult females (50.0%) and Spartina alterniflora for adult males (49.7%) and juvenile females (42.2%). Dietary mixing models indicated the adult female diet included a relatively high proportion of Thalassia testudinum (31.3%), suggesting a strong reliance on seagrass dominated prey and not necessarily large consumption of seagrass, followed by lower proportions of gastropods (26.6%) and crustaceans (19.1%). Primary diet items for juvenile females and adult males included relatively equal proportions of echinoderms, gastropods, crustaceans, ascidians, and porifera. Body and head size of terrapins may drive differences in diet, as interpreted from mixing model results. Although mangroves are expanding their range northward along the Gulf of America coast and have become established at our study site, it does not appear that terrapins are foraging within these newly established mangrove forests. Finally, the terrapin niche, particularly for adult females, may overlap with the sea turtle niche in seagrass-dominated bays. Whether sea turtles impact terrapin populations, including through direct predation, is unknown.

Florida↗

Environmental systems and management activities on the Kennedy Space Center, Merritt Island, Florida: results of a modeling workshop

In the early 1960's, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) began purchasing 140,000 acres on Merritt Island, Florida, in order to develop a center for space exploration. Most of this land was acquired to provide a safety and security buffer around NASA facilities. NASA, as the managing agency for the Kennedy Space Center (KSC), is responsible for preventing or controlling environmental pollution from the Federal facilities and activities at the Space Center and is committed to use all practicable means to protect and enhance the quality of the surrounding environment. The Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge was established in 1963 when management authority for undeveloped lands at KSC was transferred to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. In addition to manage for 11 Federally-listed threatened and endangered species and other resident and migratory fish and wildlife populations, the Refuge has comanagement responsibility for 19,000 acres of mosquito control impoundments and 2,500 acres of citrus groves. The Canaveral National Seashore was developed in 1975 when management of a portion of the coastal lands was transferred from NASA to the National Park Service. This multiagency jurisdiction on Merritt Island has resulted in a complex management environment. The modeling workshop described in this report was conducted May 21-25, 1984, at the Kennedy Space Center to: (1) enhance communication among the agencies with management responsibilities on Merritt Island; (2) integrate available information concerning the development, management, and ecology of Merritt Island; and (3) identify key research and monitoring needs associated with the management and use of the island's resources. The workshop was structured around the formulation of a model that would simulate primary management and use activities on Merritt Island and their effects on upland, impoundment, and estuarine vegetation and associated wildlife. The simulation model is composed of four connected submodels. The Uplands submodel calculates changes in acres and structural components of vegetation communities resulting from succession, fire, facilities development, and shuttle launch depositions, as well as the quantity and quality of surface runoff and aquifer input to an impoundment and an estuary. The Impoundment submodel next determines water quality and quantity and changes in vegetation resulting from water level manipulation and prescribed burning. The Estuary submodel than determines water quality parameters and acres of seagrass beds. Finally, the Wildlife submodel calculates habitat suitability indices for key species of interest, based on vegetation conditions in the uplands and impoundments and on several hydrologic parameters. The model represents a hypothetical management unit with 2,500 acres of uplands, a 600-acre impoundment, and a 1,500-acre section of estuary. Two management scenarios were run to analyze model behavior. The scenarios differ in the frequency of shuttle launches and prescribed burning, the extent of facilities development, the amount of land disposed waste material applied, and the nature and timing of impoundment water level control. Early in a model development project, the process of building the model is usually of greater benefit than the model itself. The model building process stimulates interaction among agencies, assists in integrating existing information, and helps identify research needs. These benefits usually accrue even in the absence of real predictive power in the resulting model. Open communication occurs among the Federal, State, and local agencies involved with activities on Merritt Island and the agencies have a cooperative working relationship. The workshop provided an opportunity for all of these agencies to meet at one time and have focused discussions on the key environmental and multiagency resource management issues. The workshop framework helped to integrate information and assumptions from a number of disciplines and agencies. This integration occurred in the computer simulation model and among workshop participants as submodel linkages were developed and scenario results discussed. A number of research needs were identified at the workshop during the model building and testing exercises and associated discussions. These needs were based on the informed judgement of researchers and managers familiar with Merritt Island or similar areas, rather than on a comprehensive literature review of sensitivity analysis of the preliminary model developed at the workshop. Some of the needs can be addressed by interpreting the results of completed studies from similar geographic areas as they relate to Merritt Island, while other will require additional research studies on Merritt Island. Major research needs associated with the Upland submodel include behavior of the near-surface aquifer, factors limiting slash pine regeneration, frequency and effects of natural fire on various cover types, cumulative effects of shuttle launches, and fate in upland soils of nitrogen and phosphorous from land applied waste material. Key Impoundment submodel needs include documentation of vegetation changes in response to altered water depth, salinity, and nutrient concentrations and better specification of the functional characteristics of impoundments as chemical filters. Important information gaps identified in the Estuary submodel include a more complete analysis of factors contributing to phytoplankton abundance, evaluation of sources of turbidity other than phytoplankton, and identification and quantification of factors limiting seagrass distribution. Primary research needs associated with the Wildlife submodel include a survey of breeding habitat, production data, and harvest data for mottled ducks; data on the emigration and immigration of juvenile mullet (and other transient fish) in the impoundment; the contribution of various seagrasses to habitat requirements of sea trout; and the effects of dissolved oxygen on survival of juvenile sea trout. Ideally, the modeling workshop process is iterative in nature. Periods between workshops are used for research, data collection, and model refinement. Each workshop integrates information collected since the last workshop and produces a more credible model that is more useful in evaluating management alternatives. Participants felt that continued application of this process would help provide ongoing integration and communication among agencies and would allow each agency's planning and management activities to be viewed within the context of an overall assessment.

Report↗

Analyzing stakeholder preferences for managing elk and bison at the National Elk Refuge and Grand Teton National Park: An example of the disparate stakeholder management approach

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and the National Park Service (NPS) are preparing a management plan for bison and elk inhabiting the National Elk Refuge (NER) and Grand Teton National Park (GTNP) near Jackson Hole, Wyoming. A management plan is needed to evaluate current and possible changes to habitat management, disease management, winter feeding and hunting programs related to the NER and GTNP. In order to make good decisions, managers need to incorporate the opinions and values of the involved stakeholders as well as understand the complex institutional constraints and opportunities that influence the decision making process. Federal, state, local, private and public stakeholders have diverse values and preferences about how to use and manage resources, and underlying institutional factors give certain stakeholders more influence over the outcome. How stakeholders use their influence can greatly affect the time, effort and costs of the decision making process. The overall result will depend both on the stakeholder’s relative power and level of conviction for their preferences. Many programs and tools have been developed by different disciplines to facilitate group negotiation and decision making. Three examples are relevant here. First, decision analysis models such as the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) are commonly used to prioritize the goals and objectives of stakeholders’ preferences for resource planning by formally structuring conflicts and assisting decision makers in developing a compromised solution (Forman, 1998). Second, institutional models such as the Legal Institutional Analysis Model (LIAM) have been used to describe the organizational rules of behavior and the institutional boundaries constraining management decisions (Lamb and others, 1998). Finally, public choice models have been used to predict the potential success of rent-seeking activity (spending additional time and money to exert political pressure) to change the political rules (Becker, 1983). While these tools have been successful at addressing various pieces of the natural resource decision making process, their use in isolation is not enough to fully depict the complexities of the physical and biological systems with the rules and constraints of the underlying economic and political systems. An approach is needed that combines natural sciences, economics, and politics.

Wyoming↗

Effects of best-management practices in Otter Creek in the Sheboygan River Priority Watershed, Wisconsin, 1990-2002

The U.S. Geological Survey and the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources began a comprehensive, multidisciplinary evaluation-monitoring program in 1989 to assess the effectiveness of the Wisconsin Nonpoint Source Program. Hydrologic, water-quality, habitat, and fish data were collected at Otter Creek from 1990 to 2002 with the pre-BMP (best-management practice) period ending in September 1993 and the post-BMP period beginning in October 1999. BMPs installed in this basin included streambank protection and fencing, stream crossings, grade stabilization, buffer strips, various barnyard-runoff controls, nutrient management, and a low degree of upland BMPs. Reductions between pre- and post-BMP periods were detected in median concentrations of base-flow samples for total suspended solids and BOD5 but not for total phosphorus or dissolved ammonia nitrogen; fecal coliform concentrations in base-flow samples increased over the study period. Reductions in rainfall storm loads between the pre- and post-BMP periods during the non-vegetative season (November through May) were detected for all three constituents monitored (total suspended solids, total phosphorus, and dissolved ammonia nitrogen). Differences in rainfall storm loads of these three constituents for the vegetative season (June through October) were not detected. When considering rainfall data from the entire year, reductions in storm loads were detected for total suspended solids and dissolved ammonia nitrogen (reductions were estimated at 58 percent for total suspended solids and 41 percent for dissolved ammonia nitrogen). Annual reductions in rainfall storm loads for the non-vegetative season were estimated at 58 percent for total suspended solids, 48 percent for total phosphorus, and 41 percent for dissolved ammonia nitrogen. Habitat and fish data were collected each year of the study to track the effects of BMPs on stream habitat and fish communities. Final trend analysis was performed using habitat quality index scores, an index of biotic integrity, and some of the originally measured fish and habitat variables. Habitat was improved for stream segments that had either natural riparian buffer or where streambank fencing was installed, but not at the station where the riparian area was pasture and no streambank fencing was installed. The results also suggest that BMP implementation in Otter Creek substantially modified fish community structure, but the overall community quality was not improved.

Wisconsin↗

Bison population dynamics, harvest, and conflict potential under feedground management alternatives at the National Elk Refuge in Jackson, Wyoming

Bison bison (bison) were once abundant across North America but declined due to overharvesting in the late 1800s. The reintroduced population in and around Jackson, Wyoming has averaged 485 individuals between 2018–2023 and is the subject of a planning process to inform management strategies that will guide the U.S. Fish and Wildlife’s next “Bison and Elk Management Plan” for the National Elk Refuge. This small population may benefit from historical winter-feeding operations on the National Elk Refuge because those operations may increase overwinter survival and limit human-bison conflicts, which are the number of individual bison that engage in nuisance, damaging, or otherwise aggressive behaviors with humans and livestock, that may lead to culling and other sources of mortality (for example, vehicle collisions). To inform the next “Bison and Elk Management Plan,” the U.S. Geological Survey used a population model to evaluate five management alternatives for bison and Cervus elaphus canadensis (elk) feedground operations that included continuing the elk and bison feeding program, immediately stopping the feeding program, and three other alternatives that would phase out the feeding program after a period of time. The results indicate that the bison population would be expected to decline over the next 20 years under all alternatives that stop feeding bison on the refuge. Further, this decline would lead to an associated reduction in bison harvest opportunities for resident, nonresident, and Tribal hunters. Finally, human-bison conflicts would also be expected to increase under the no feeding alternatives because bison may venture onto private lands in greater numbers if feed is not provisioned during winter months. In combination, these effects suggest that feeding may lead to better outcomes for bison over the next 20 years; however, these effects may be traded off against other downsides of the feedground program, such as increased rates of animal-to-animal contact on feedgrounds that can lead to disease transmission.

Wyoming↗

Bison population dynamics, harvest, and human conflict potential under feedground management alternatives at the National Elk Refuge in Jackson, Wyoming

Bison bison were once abundant across North America but declined due to overharvesting in the late 1800s. The reintroduced population in and around Jackson, Wyoming has averaged 485 individuals between 2018–2023 and is the subject of a planning process to inform management strategies that will guide the U.S. Fish and Wildlife’s next “Bison and Elk Management Plan” for the National Elk Refuge. This small population may benefit from historical winter-feeding operations on the National Elk Refuge because those operations may increase overwinter survival and limit human-bison conflicts, which are the number of individual bison that engage in nuisance, damaging, or otherwise aggressive behaviors with humans and livestock, that may lead to culling and other sources of mortality (for example, vehicle collisions). To inform the next “Bison and Elk Management Plan,” the U.S. Geological Survey used a population model to evaluate five management alternatives for bison and Cervus elaphus canadensis feedground operations that included continuing the elk and bison feeding program, immediately stopping the feeding program, and three other alternatives that would phase out the feeding program after a period of time. The results indicate that the bison population would be expected to decline over the next 20 years under all alternatives that stop feeding bison on the refuge. Further, this decline would lead to an associated reduction in bison harvest opportunities for resident, nonresident, and Tribal hunters. Finally, human-bison conflicts would also be expected to increase under the no feeding alternatives because bison may venture onto private lands in greater numbers if feed is not provisioned during winter months. In combination, these results suggest that feeding may lead to better outcomes for bison over the next 20 years; however, these effects may be traded off against other downsides of the feedground program, such as increased rates of animal-to-animal contact on feedgrounds that can lead to disease transmission.

Wyoming↗

Population genetic structure of rare and endangered plants using molecular markers

This study was initiated to assess the levels of genetic diversity and differentiation in the remaining populations of Phyllostegia stachyoides and Melicope zahlbruckneri in Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park and determine the extent of gene flow to identify genetically distinct individuals or groups for conservation purposes. Thirty-six Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphic (AFLP) primer combinations generated a total of 3,242 polymorphic deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) fragments in the P. stachyoides population with a percentage of polymorphic bands (PPB) ranging from 39.3 to 65.7% and 2,780 for the M. zahlbruckneri population with a PPB of 18.8 to 64.6%. Population differentiation (Fst) of AFLP loci between subpopulations of P. stachyoides was low (0.043) across populations. Analysis of molecular variance of P. stachyoides showed that 4% of the observed genetic differentiation occurred between populations in different k ī puka and 96% when individuals were pooled from all k ī puka. Moderate genetic diversity was detected within the M. zahlbruckneri population. Bayesian and multivariate analyses both classified the P. stachyoides and M. zahlbruckneri populations into genetic groups with considerable sub-structuring detected in the P. stachyoides population. The proportion of genetic differentiation among populations explained by geographical distance was estimated by Mantel tests. No spatial correlation was found between genetic and geographic distances in both populations. Finally, a moderate but significant gene flow that could be attributed to insect or bird-mediated dispersal of pollen across the different k ī puka was observed. The results of this study highlight the utility of a multi-allelic DNA-based marker in screening a large number of polymorphic loci in small and closely related endangered populations and revealed the presence of genetically unique groups of individuals in both M. zahlbruckneri and P. stachyoides populations. Based on these findings, approaches that can assist conservation efforts of these species are proposed.

Hawai`i↗

Adaptive harvest management for the Svalbard population of pink-footed geese: cooperator report

This document describes progress to date on the development of a harvest‐management strategy for maintaining pink‐footed goose abundance near their target level by providing for sustainable harvests in Norway and Denmark. Many goose populations in western Europe have increased dramatically in recent decades. The Svalbard population of pink‐footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) is a good example, increasing from about 10 thousand individuals in the early 1960’s to roughly 80 thousand today. Although these geese are a highly valued resource, the growing numbers of geese are causing agricultural conflicts in wintering and staging areas. The African‐Eurasian Waterbird Agreement (AEWA; http://www.unep‐aewa.org/) calls for means to manage populations which cause conflicts with certain human economic activities. We compiled relevant demographic and weather data and specified an annual‐cycle model for pink-footed geese that reconciles the different dates of monitoring activities and the timing of harvest-management decisions. We then developed dynamic models for survival and reproductive processes and parameterized them using available data. By combining varying hypotheses about survival and reproduction, we developed a suite of nine models that represent a wide range of possibilities concerning the extent to which demographic rates are density dependent or independent, and the extent to which spring temperatures are important. These nine models varied significantly in their predictions of the harvest required to stabilize current population size, ranging from a low of about 500 to a high of about 17 thousand. For comparison, the harvest in Norway and Denmark was about 11 thousand in 2011 and the population increased from 70 to 80 thousand. We relied on the passive form of adaptive management in formulating a harvest strategy. In passive adaptive management, alternative population models and their associated weights of evidence are explicitly considered in the development of an optimal harvest strategy. Unlike active adaptive management, however, there is no explicit consideration of how harvest management actions could reduce uncertainty as to the most appropriate model of population dynamics. In optimizing a harvest strategy, we assumed equal probabilities for all nine models and assumed relatively course control over harvest. We used a management objective that seeks to maximize sustainable harvest, but avoids harvest decisions that are expected to result in a subsequent population size different than the population goal of 60 thousand. Optimal harvest strategies were calculated using stochastic dynamic programming, and Monte Carlo simulations were used to investigate expected strategy performance. The optimal passive adaptive‐management strategy is expected to maintain mean population size near 60 thousand, regardless of the most appropriate model. However, mean harvest rates and harvests varied substantially depending on the most appropriate model of population dynamics. With an average number of days above freezing in May in Svalbard, optimal harvest rates (i.e., the proportion of the population to be harvested in autumn) increase rapidly once there are more than about 50 thousand birds in the population. Generally, optimal harvests were on the order of 10 – 20 thousand for population sizes > 60 thousand, and 0 – 5 thousand for population sizes < 60 thousand. For the observations of young of 15.4 thousand and adults of 54.6 thousand in autumn 2010, and 10 days above freezing in May 2011 (a relatively warm spring compared to the average of about 7), the optimal harvest rate in autumn of 2011 would have been 0.16, or a harvest of about 14 thousand. Based on the optimal strategy, hunting‐season closures would be required as the number of adults in the autumn population falls below about 52 thousand, regardless of the number of young in the population. As the number of adults and young decrease, the number of warm days in May required to keep the hunting season open increases. We also investigated the ability of the optimal strategy to stabilize the population at around 60 thousand birds, assuming varying values of the maximum harvest rate that could be implemented. Harvest strategies that contained a maximum harvest rate of 0.16 (equivalent to a harvest of about 17 thousand) were effective at stabilizing the population at 60 thousand within 4‐5 years, regardless of climate scenario. Harvest strategies with a maximum harvest rate of 0.12 (harvest ≈ 13 thousand) were also able to stabilize the population near 60 thousand, although it took more time. Harvest strategies with a maximum harvest rate of 0.08 (harvest ≈ 8 thousand) were unsuccessful at stabilizing the population at 60 thousand. Continued monitoring of the pink‐footed goose population on an annual basis is critical to an informed harvest management strategy. At a minimum, the ground census in November should be continued to determine population size and proportion of young. Continued estimates of harvest from Norway and Denmark are also necessary to help judge the credibility of the alternative population models. However, an adaptive management process that relies on periodic updating of model weights will depend on acquiring either estimates of the realized harvest rate of adults or the age composition of the harvest. We also recommend that a census conducted during spring migration be operationalized, and that estimates of survival based on mark‐recapture data be updated. Finally, the International Working Group has expressed a desire to adopt a three‐year cycle of decision making related to the regulation of pink‐footed goose harvests. The idea is that once a target harvest level is adopted, it would remain in place for three years, after which time population status would be assessed and a potentially new management action chosen. We have developed a preliminary framework to implement a three‐year cycle using stochastic dynamic programming, and we hope to have it fully operational later this year . We note, however, that application of this 3‐year framework will still require annual resource monitoring and assessments to facilitate learning, and to allow managers the opportunity to respond to any unforeseen change in resource conditions.

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Perched water tables on hillsides in western Oregon: II. Preferential downslope movement of water and anions

Perched water tables on hillsides in western Oregon potentially provide a means by which pollutants from agricultural and domestic sources may enter surface waters and consequently degrade the quality of these waters. This paper reports the results of experiments which were carried out to investigate the flow of solutes and water from buried line sources in and above perched water tables on three different hillsides in western Oregon. In the saturated soil and rock mantles of two hillsides, evidence suggests that water and solutes flow preferentially through large continuous voids. The evidence includes the very high maximum rate of anion movement downslope, the failure of pore velocities calculated from Darcy's Law to predict the rate and direction of anion movement, the short time before high levels of anions are detected downslope, and the spatial variability in the maximum rates of anion movement over the depth and width of sites. On the third hillside, tracer anion movement and soil water pressure measurements indicate that preferential flow occurs through large continuous pores during heavy rainfall while the surrounding soil and rock mantle remains unsaturated. Finally, experiments with Rodamine WT dye show that a variety of continuous voids of different origins and sizes conduct water and solutes preferentially in the soil and upper regions of rock on these hillsides.

Oregon↗

Tertiary volcanic rocks of the Mineral Mountain and Teapot Mountain quadrangles, Pinal County, Arizona

The widespread distribution of Tertiary volcanic rocks in south-central Arizona is controlled in part by prevolcanic structures along which volcanic vents were localized. Volcanic rocks in the Mineral Mountain and Teapot Mountain quadrangles mark the site of a major northwest-trending structural hingeline. This hingeline divides an older Precambrian X terrane on the west from intensely deformed sequences of rock as young as Pennsylvanian on the east, suggesting increased westerly uplift. The volcanic rocks consist of a pile of complexly interlayered rhyolite, andesite, dacite, flows and intrusive rocks, water-laid tuffs, and very minor olivine basalt. Although the rocks erupted from several different vents, time relations, space relations, and chemistry each give strong evidence of a single source for all the rocks. Available data (by the K-Ar dating method) on hornblende and biotite separates from the volcanic rocks range from 14 to 19 m.y. and establish the pre-middle Miocene age of major dislocations along the structural hingeline. Most of the volcanic rocks contain glass, either at the base of the flows or as an envelope around the intrusive phases. One of the intrusive rhyolites, however, seems to represent one of the final eruptions. Intense vesiculation of the intrusive rhyolite suggests a large content of volatiles at the time of its eruption. Mineralization is associated with the more silicic of these middle Miocene volcanic rocks; specifically, extensive fissure quartz veins contain locally significant amounts of silver, lead, and zinc and minor amounts of gold. Many of the most productive deposits are hosted by the volcanic rocks, although others occur in the Precambrian rocks. Magnetic data correspond roughly to the geology in outlining the overall extent of the volcanic rocks as a magnetic low.

Open-File Report↗

Terrestrial Ecosystems - Topographic Moisture Potential of the Conterminous United States

As part of an effort to map terrestrial ecosystems, the U.S. Geological Survey has generated topographic moisture potential classes to be used in creating maps depicting standardized, terrestrial ecosystem models for the conterminous United States, using an ecosystems classification developed by NatureServe. A biophysical stratification approach, developed for South America and now being implemented globally, was used to model the ecosystem distributions. Substrate moisture regimes strongly influence the differentiation and distribution of terrestrial ecosystems, and therefore topographic moisture potential is one of the key input layers in this biophysical stratification. The method used to produce these topographic moisture potential classes was based on the derivation of ground moisture potential using a combination of computed topographic characteristics (CTI, slope, and aspect) and mapped National Wetland Inventory (NWI) boundaries. This method does not use climate or soil attributes to calculate relative topographic moisture potential since these characteristics are incorporated into the ecosystem model though other input layers. All of the topographic data used for this assessment were derived from the USGS 30-meter National Elevation Dataset (NED ) including the National Compound Topographic Index (CTI). The CTI index is a topographically derived measure of slope for a raster cell and the contributing area from upstream raster cells, and thus expresses potential for water flow to a point. In other words CTI data are 'a quantification of the position of a site in the local landscape', where the lowest values indicate ridges and the highest values indicate stream channels, lakes and ponds. These CTI values were compared to independent estimates of water accumulation by obtaining geospatial data from a number of sample locations representing two types of NWI boundaries: freshwater emergent wetlands and freshwater forested/shrub wetlands. Where these shorelines (the interface between the NWI wetlands and adjacent land) occurred, the CTI values were extracted and a histogram of their statistical distributions was calculated. Based on an evaluation of these histograms, CTI thresholds were developed to separate periodically saturated or flooded land, mesic uplands (moderately moist), and uplands. After the range of CTI values for these three different substrate moisture regimes was determined, the CTI values were grouped into three initial topographic moisture potential classes. As a final step in the generation of this national data layer, the uplands classification was subdivided into either very dry uplands or dry uplands. Very dry uplands were defined as uplands with relatively steep, south-facing slopes, and identification of this class was based on the slope and aspect datasets derived from the NED. The remaining uplands that did not meet these additional criteria were simply re-classified as dry uplands. The final National Topographic Moisture Potential dataset for the conterminous United States contains four classes: periodically saturated or flooded land (CTI = 18.5), mesic uplands (12 =< CTI < 18.5), dry uplands (CTI < 12), and very dry uplands (CTI < 12, Slope > 24 degrees and 91 degrees =< Aspect =< 314 degrees). This map shows a smoothed and generalized image of the four topographic moisture potential classes. Additional information about this map and any of the data developed for the ecosystems modeling of the conterminous United States is available online at http://rmgsc.cr.usgs.gov/ecosystems/.

Scientific Investigations Map↗

Reconstructing the Quaternary depositional history using geologic mapping and three-dimensional modeling of the subsurface near Fort Morgan, northeastern Colorado

Centered on Fort Morgan, Colorado, this study is intended to build from previous work by adding a three-dimensional (3D) view of the subsurface to better understand the depositional history of Quaternary deposits. A 1:100,000 scale geologic map was made by combining previous geologic maps, regional soil maps, and recent field investigations. In addition to the geologic mapping, drill hole lithologic data from water wells and oil and gas exploration were compiled and lithologic units simplified to best represent the stratigraphy of the Quaternary deposits. From these subsurface data, a 3D subsurface model was constructed, trimmed at the surface by a digital elevation model, and a bedrock surface foundation gridded from drill hole data was added. The surface of the 3D model was then compared visually to the surficial geologic map. Cross sections were constructed from the 3D model and compared to site-specific drilling that was done as part of this project. Finally, the model was examined in detail to reconstruct the depositional history of the subsurface alluvial and eolian units. Alluvial and fluvial drainage basins exposed in the subsurface have a greater areal extent than the present-day narrow drainages. Older eolian sand in the subsurface tends to be interbedded with loess indicating coeval deposition. Holocene sand, both eroded from bedrock exposed at the surface north of the study area and reworked from the South Platte River, buries most of the interbedded older sand and loess.

Colorado↗