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At least 1,333 records · Page 74Linked to original sources

Non-native bird populations respond differently to their environment and exhibit shifts in ecological niche limits across continents

Aim The degree to which species' niches remain stable over space and time–the niche conservatism hypothesis–is critical for predicting species' responses to environmental change. Tests of this hypothesis typically focus on changes in niche centroids and boundaries. An outstanding question is whether species' environmental associations differ within the interior of their niche space–that is, across the full range of occupied conditions–in original versus novel geographic space. Location Europe and North America. Time Period 1997–2018. Major Taxa Studied Birds. Methods We used over 400,000 observations collected over 22 years and across 28 countries to explore whether two common songbird species—European starling ( Sturnus vulgaris ) and house sparrow ( Passer domesticus ) – exhibit niche conservatism between their native European and non-native North American ranges. We tested for niche conservatism via (1) an ordination approach that quantified change in niche shape and boundaries, and (2) generalised linear mixed effects models to quantify how abundance varied with the interaction between continent and climate or land cover variables. Results The ordination analysis indicated that both European starling and house sparrow exhibited niche conservatism between Europe and North America. However, abundance models revealed continental differences in how the species responded to temperature and land cover. The abundance models also revealed that areas with wetter conditions that were occupied by both species in their native European ranges were available but unoccupied in their non-native North American ranges (i.e., niche unfilling). Main Conclusions Our work demonstrates that species can exhibit apparent consistency in niche boundaries but varied abundance responses to the environment within niche boundaries. Expanding the study of niche conservatism to explore changes both at the edge of and within niche boundaries would improve the ability to assess and predict species' invasion risk or sensitivity to ongoing global change.

Diversity and Distributions↗

Ecological Status of Wyoming Streams, 2000-2003

The ecological status of perennial streams in Wyoming was determined and compared with the status of perennial streams throughout 12 States in the western United States, using data collected as part of the Western Pilot Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP-West). Results for Wyoming are compared and contrasted in the context of the entire EMAP-West study area (west-wide) and climatic regions (based on aggregated ecoregions) within Wyoming. In Wyoming, ecological status, estimated as the proportion of the perennial stream length in least disturbed, most disturbed, and intermediate disturbance condition, based on ecological indicators of vertebrate and invertebrate assemblages was similar, in many cases, to the status of those assemblages determined for EMAP-West. Ecological status based on chemical and physical habitat stressors also was similar in Wyoming to west-wide proportions in many cases. Riparian disturbance was one of the most common physical stressors west-wide and in Wyoming. The estimates of riparian disturbance indicated about 90 percent of the stream length in the xeric climatic region in Wyoming was rated most disturbed, compared to about 30 percent rated most disturbed in the mountain climatic region in Wyoming. Results from analyses using a macroinvertebrate multi-metric index (MMI) and macroinvertebrate ratio of observed to expected taxa (O/E) developed specifically for the west-wide EMAP study were compared to results using a macroinvertebrate MMI and O/E developed for Wyoming. Proportions of perennial stream length in various condition categories determined from macroinvertebrate MMIs often were similar in Wyoming to proportions observed west-wide. Differences were larger, but not extreme, between west-wide and Wyoming O/E models. An aquatic life use support decision matrix developed for interpreting the Wyoming MMI and O/E model data indicated about one-half of the stream length statewide achieves the State's narrative aquatic life use criteria, and the remainder of the stream length either exceeds the criteria, indicating partial or non-support of aquatic life Wyominguses, or is undetermined. These results provide initial estimates of aquatic life use support at a statewide basis as required for 305(b) reporting, and coupled with current and future State-level probability survey designs, a foundation for tracking conditions over time at multiple scales.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

The Modular Modeling System (MMS): A toolbox for water- and environmental-resources management

The increasing complexity of water- and environmental-resource problems require modeling approaches that incorporate knowledge from a broad range of scientific and software disciplines. To address this need, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed the Modular Modeling System (MMS). MMS is an integrated system of computer software for model development, integration, and application. Its modular design allows a high level of flexibility and adaptability to enable modelers to incorporate their own software into a rich array of built-in models and modeling tools. These include individual process models, tightly coupled models, loosely coupled models, and fully- integrated decision support systems. A geographic information system (GIS) interface, the USGS GIS Weasel, has been integrated with MMS to enable spatial delineation and characterization of basin and ecosystem features, and to provide objective parameter-estimation methods for models using available digital data. MMS provides optimization and sensitivity-analysis tools to analyze model parameters and evaluate the extent to which uncertainty in model parameters affects uncertainty in simulation results. MMS has been coupled with the Bureau of Reclamation object-oriented reservoir and river-system modeling framework, RiverWare, to develop models to evaluate and apply optimal resource-allocation and management strategies to complex, operational decisions on multipurpose reservoir systems and watersheds. This decision support system approach has been developed, tested, and implemented in the Gunnison, Yakima, San Joaquin, Rio Grande, and Truckee River basins of the western United States. MMS is currently being coupled with the U.S. Forest Service model SIMulating Patterns and Processes at Landscape Scales (SIMPPLLE) to assess the effects of alternative vegetation-management strategies on a variety of hydrological and ecological responses. Initial development and testing of the MMS-SIMPPLLE integration is being conducted on the Colorado Plateau region of the western United Sates.

Conference Paper↗

Quantitative microbial risk assessment for spray irrigation of dairy manure based on an empirical fate and transport model

BACKGROUND: Spray irrigation for land-applying livestock manure is increasing in the United States as farms become larger and economies of scale make manure irrigation affordable. Human health risks from exposure to zoonotic pathogens aerosolized during manure irrigation are not well understood. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to a) estimate human health risks due to aerosolized zoonotic pathogens downwind of spray-irrigated dairy manure; and b) determine which factors (e.g., distance, weather conditions) have the greatest influence on risk estimates. METHODS: We sampled downwind air concentrations of manure-borne fecal indicators and zoonotic pathogens during 21 full-scale dairy manure irri- gation events at three farms. We fit these data to hierarchical empirical models and used model outputs in a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to estimate risk [probability of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI)] for individuals exposed to spray-irrigated dairy manure containing Campylobacter jejuni, enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC), or Salmonella spp. RESULTS: Median risk estimates from Monte Carlo simulations ranged from 10−5 to 10−2 and decreased with distance from the source. Risk estimates for Salmonella or EHEC-related AGI were most sensitive to the assumed level of pathogen prevalence in dairy manure, while risk estimates for C. jejuni were not sensitive to any single variable. Airborne microbe concentrations were negatively associated with distance and positively associated with wind speed, both of which were retained in models as a significant predictor more often than relative humidity, solar irradiation, or temperature. CONCLUSIONS: Our model-based estimates suggest that reducing pathogen prevalence and concentration in source manure would reduce the risk of AGI from exposure to manure irrigation, and that increasing the distance from irrigated manure (i.e., setbacks) and limiting irrigation to times of low wind speed may also reduce risk.

Environmental Health Perspectives↗

Fate and origin of 1,2-dichloropropane in an unconfined shallow aquifer

A shallow aquifer with different redox zones overlain by intensive agricultural activity was monitored for the occurrence of 1,2-dichloropropane (DCP) to assess the fate and origin of this pollutant. DCP was detected more frequently in groundwater samples collected in aerobic and nitrate-reducing zones than those collected from iron-reducing zones. Simulated DCP concentrations for groundwater entering an iron-reducing zone were calculated from a fate and transport model that included dispersion, sorption, and hydrolysis but not degradation. Simulated concentrations were well in excess of measured values, suggesting that microbial degradation occurred in the iron-reducing zone. Microcosm experiments were conducted using aquifer samples collected from iron-reducing and aerobic zones to evaluate the potential for microbial degradation of DCP and to explain field observations. Hydrogenolysis of DCP and production of monochlorinated propanes in microcosm experiments occurred only with aquifer materials collected from the iron-reducing zone, and no dechlorination was observed in microcosms established with aquifer materials collected from the aerobic zones. Careful analyses of the DCP/1,2,2-trichloropropane ratios in groundwater indicated that older fumigant formulations were responsible for the high levels of DCP present in this aquifer.A shallow aquifer with different redox zones overlain by intensive agricultural activity was monitored for the occurrence of 1,2-dichloropropane (DCP) to assess the fate and origin of this pollutant. DCP was detected more frequently in groundwater samples collected in aerobic and nitrate-reducing zones than those collected from iron-reducing zones. Simulated DCP concentrations for groundwater entering an iron-reducing zone were calculated from a fate and transport model that included dispersion, sorption, and hydrolysis but not degradation. Simulated concentrations were well in excess of measured values, suggesting that microbial degradation occurred in the iron-reducing zone. Microcosm experiments were conducted using aquifer samples collected from iron-reducing and aerobic zones to evaluate the potential for microbial degradation of DCP and to explain field observations. Hydrogenolysis of DCP and production of monochlorinated propanes in microcosm experiments occurred only with aquifer materials collected from the iron-reducing zone, and no dechlorination was observed in microcosms established with aquifer materials collected from the aerobic zones. Careful analyses of the DCP/1,2,2-trichloropropane ratios in groundwater indicated that older fumigant formulations were responsible for the high levels of DCP present in this aquifer.

Washington↗

Temperature is better than precipitation as a predictor of plant community assembly across a dryland region

Question How closely do plant communities track climate? Research suggests that plant species converge toward similar environmental tolerances relative to the environments that they experience. Whether these patterns apply to severe environments or scale up to plant community-level patterns of relative climatic tolerances is poorly understood. Using estimates of species' climatic tolerances acquired from occurrence records, we determined the contributions of individual species' climatic niche breadths and environmental filtering to the relationships between community-average climatic tolerances and the local climates experienced by those communities. Location Southwestern United States drylands. Methods Interspecific variation in niche breadth was assessed as a function of species' climatic optima (median climatic niche value). The relationships between climatic optima and tolerances were used as null expectations for the relationship between abundance-weighted mean climatic tolerances of communities and the local climate of that community. Deviations from this null expectation indicate that species with greater or lesser climatic tolerances are favoured relative to co-occurring species. The intensity of environmental filtering was estimated by comparing the range of climatic tolerances within each community to a null distribution generated from a random assembly algorithm. Results The temperature niches of species were consistently symmetrical and of similar breadths, regardless of their temperature optima. In contrast, precipitation niches were skewed toward wetter conditions, and niche breadth increased with increasing precipitation optima. At the community level, relationships with climate were much stronger for temperature than for precipitation. Furthermore, cold and heat were stronger assembly filters than drought or precipitation, with the intensity of environmental filtering increasing at both ends of climatic gradients. Community-average climatic tolerances did deviate significantly from null expectations, indicating that species with higher or lower relative climatic tolerances were favoured under certain conditions. Conclusions Despite strong water limitation of plant performance in dryland ecosystems, communities tracked variation in temperature much more closely, intimating strong responses to anticipated temperature increases. Furthermore, abundance distributions were biased toward species with higher or lower relative climatic tolerances under different climatic conditions, but predictably so, indicating the need for assembly models that include processes other than simple environmental filtering.

Journal of Vegetation Science↗

Simulated estuary-wide response of seagrass (Zostera marina) to future scenarios of temperature and sea level

Seagrass communities are a vital component of estuarine ecosystems, but are threatened by projected sea level rise (SLR) and temperature increases with climate change. To understand these potential effects, we developed a spatially explicit model that represents seagrass ( Zostera marina ) habitat and estuary-wide productivity for Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor (BB-LEH) in New Jersey, United States. Our modeling approach included an offline coupling of a numerical seagrass biomass model with the spatially variable environmental conditions from a hydrodynamic model to calculate above and belowground biomass at each grid cell of the hydrodynamic model domain. Once calibrated to represent present day seagrass habitat and estuary-wide annual productivity, we applied combinations of increasing air temperature and sea level following regionally specific climate change projections, enabling analysis of the individual and combined impacts of these variables on seagrass biomass and spatial coverage. Under the SLR scenarios, the current model domain boundaries were maintained, as the land surrounding BB-LEH is unlikely to shift significantly in the future. SLR caused habitat extent to decrease dramatically, pushing seagrass beds toward the coastline with increasing depth, with a 100% loss of habitat by the maximum SLR scenario. The dramatic loss of seagrass habitat under SLR was in part due to the assumption that surrounding land would not be inundated, as the model did not allow for habitat expansion outside the current boundaries of the bay. Temperature increases slightly elevated the rate of summer die-off and decreased habitat area only under the highest temperature increase scenarios. In combined scenarios, the effects of SLR far outweighed the effects of temperature increase. Sensitivity analysis of the model revealed the greatest sensitivity to changes in parameters affecting light limitation and seagrass mortality, but no sensitivity to changes in nutrient limitation constants. The high vulnerability of seagrass in the bay to SLR exceeded that demonstrated for other systems, highlighting the importance of site- and region-specific assessments of estuaries under climate change.

New Jersey↗

Evaluation of stream flow effects on smolt survival in the Yakima River basin, Washington

Study Summary The influence of stream flow on salmon smolt emigration survival is a topic of widespread management interest. We collected smolt survival data to inform flow management decisions in the Yakima Basin. The Yakima River watershed drains the eastern slopes of the Cascade Mountain Range in central Washington State. The upper basin is comprised of two major tributaries&ndash;the Naches River and the upper Yakima River. Headwater storage reservoirs capture runoff during the winter and spring seasons to support downstream irrigation needs. During summer months, water is conveyed through the upper Yakima River and diverted at Roza Dam, a major irrigation diversion that supplies water to the Roza Irrigation District and to a hydroelectric plant located near Yakima, Washington. To assess smolt survival in the 18 km reach downstream of Roza Dam, a radio telemetry project will be carried out over a three-year timeframe. The first year of study was designed to provide baseline survival estimates at two distinct flow treatments during the spring migration period. The goal was to establish flow treatments that were as divergent as possible in order to maximize the observed effect of environmental conditions on smolt survival. In total, three experimental trials were carried out in 2012&ndash;one during low flow conditions (<600 cfs) and two during high flows (>3000 cfs). Data from the first year will be used to determine experimental design requirements to adequately address study objectives in years two and three. In the spring of 2012, fixed telemetry monitoring stations were established in strategic locations upstream and downstream of Roza Dam. Yearling Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha smolts originating from Cle Elum Hatchery were captured at the Roza Dam fish screen bypass facility, implanted with radio tags, and released upstream of Roza Dam. Each release group of 50 fish was paired with a high or low flow condition. Fish movements were tracked as tagged fish passed each monitoring station during their migration down the upper Yakima River, through Roza Dam, past the Naches River confluence, and eventually through Sunnyside and Prosser Dams. At the conclusion of field data collection, survival rates for each release group were calculated using Cormack-Jolly-Seber mark-recapture models. Yearling Chinook smolt survival and travel time estimates from 2012 suggest that migration rates and survival rates in the Roza Reach may be associated with stream flow, water temperature, release timing (i.e. migratory disposition), and fish size, but the extent to which each variable influenced survival is yet to be determined. The lowest survival rate (61%) and longest travel time (median 2.26 days) was observed in Release Group 1, which had the smallest size distribution and experienced the lowest flows, lowest temperatures, and earliest release date among the three groups. Release Groups 2 and 3 survived at 96% and 98% respectively and traveled through the Roza Reach in less than eight hours. The primary focus of years two and three of this study will be to collect data that minimizes the effect of confounding explanatory variables, so that flow effects on emigration survival can be quantified independent of these other influential factors.

Washington↗

Use of stable isotope signatures to determine mercury sources in the Great Lakes

Sources of mercury (Hg) in Great Lakes sediments were assessed with stable Hg isotope ratios using multicollector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. An isotopic mixing model based on mass-dependent (MDF) and mass-independent fractionation (MIF) (&delta; 202 Hg and &Delta; 199 Hg) identified three primary Hg sources for sediments: atmospheric, industrial, and watershed-derived. Results indicate atmospheric sources dominate in Lakes Huron, Superior, and Michigan sediments while watershed-derived and industrial sources dominate in Lakes Erie and Ontario sediments. Anomalous &Delta; 200 Hg signatures, also apparent in sediments, provided independent validation of the model. Comparison of &Delta; 200 Hg signatures in predatory fish from three lakes reveals that bioaccumulated Hg is more isotopically similar to atmospherically derived Hg than a lake&rsquo;s sediment. Previous research suggests &Delta; 200 Hg is conserved during biogeochemical processing and odd mass-independent fractionation (MIF) is conserved during metabolic processing, so it is suspected even is similarly conserved. Given these assumptions, our data suggest that in some cases, atmospherically derived Hg may be a more important source of MeHg to higher trophic levels than legacy sediments in the Great Lakes.

Lake Erie, Lake Huron, Lake Michigan, Lake Ontario↗

Analysis of the influence of spatial pattern in habitat selection studies

Design and analysis of wildlife habitat selection studies typically do not assess the effect of spatial pattern on the habitat selection process. Effects of landscape scale pattern on habitat selection cannot be accomplished without replicate study areas, because pattern is a single, albeit multifaceted, attribute of an area. For a single area, however, the influence of pattern-related characteristics, such as shape and edge shared with adjacent patches, can be estimated by using GLIM (McCullough and Neider 1983) procedures to model patch-specific frequency counts of animal use as a function of these parameters. This approach is evaluated and illustrated with simulated breeding-bird counts in a South Carolina study area for which a GIS land cover classification is available. A related technique for evaluating whether movement from patch to patch is selective is developed and illustrated for designs that involve collection of trajectory data from monitored individuals. These designs and analyses are feasible given current GIS and GPS technology. Statistical inferences from habitat selection studies should be interpreted within the context of a range of scales at which animals differentiate between patch attributes.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environme↗

National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program Report to Congress: An integrated assessment

Acid deposition, more commonly known as acid rain, occurs when emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) react in the atmosphere (with water, oxygen, and oxidants) to form various acidic compounds. These acidic compounds then fall to earth in either a wet form (rain, snow, and fog) or a dry form (gases, aerosols, and particles). Prevailing winds transport the acidic compounds hundreds of miles, often across state and national borders. At certain levels the acidic compounds, including small particles such as sulfates and nitrates can cause many negative human health and environmental effects. While ecosystems are subject to many stresses, including land-use changes, climate change, and variations in hydrologic and meteorologic cycles, the scientific literature has clearly demonstrated that these pollutants can: • Degrade air quality, • Impair visibility, • Damage public health, • Acidify lakes and streams, • Harm sensitive forests, • Harm sensitive coastal ecosystems, and • Accelerate the decay of building materials, paints, and cultural artifacts such as buildings, statues, and sculptures. Title IV was passed by Congress as part of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments to reduce emissions of SO 2 and NO x from fossil fuel-burning power plants in order to protect ecosystems suffering damage from acid deposition and to improve air quality. At the same time, the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP) was asked to periodically assess and report to Congress on the implementation of the Acid Rain Program, recent scientific knowledge surrounding acid deposition and its effects, and the reduction in acid deposition necessary to prevent adverse ecological effects. This NAPAP Report focuses primarily on emission reductions from power plants, both in terms of assessing past reductions under the Acid Rain Program and in projecting the ecological effects of additional reductions of SO 2 and NO x . It should be noted that power generation currently contributes approximately 69% of the SO 2 emissions and 22% of the NO x emissions nationwide. This contribution is decreasing as emissions from power generation continue to decrease, making the other sources of these pollutants more prominent. Modeling suggests that even if SO 2 emissions from power generation were reduced to zero, some lakes and streams would remain acidic due to acid deposition. However, there are several other regulations that reduce emissions of SO 2 and NO x from these non-power generation sources, such as the Tier II mobile source standards, the Heavy Duty Diesel standards, and the Clean Air Non-Road Diesel Rule, that have also been promulgated since 1990. These regulations, primarily designed to bring counties into attainment with fine particle and ozone air quality standards, also incidentally reduce emissions that contribute to acid deposition. Implementation of Title IV has successfully and substantially reduced emissions of SO 2 and NO x from power generation at a significantly lower cost than expected: • In 2002, SO 2 emissions were 10.2 million tons, 35% lower than 1990 emissions and 40% lower than 1980 emissions.* • In 2002, NO x emissions were 4.5 million tons, 33% lower than 1990 emissions. In addition, SO 2 emissions from all sources have decreased by 32% since 1990 and emissions of NO x from all sources have decreased by 12% since 1990. Power generating sources continue to close in on the goal of reducing power plant SO 2 emissions from 1980 levels by 50% (to 8.95 million tons) as required by the 1990 Clean Air Act. Power generating sources have also exceed­ed the goal of a two million ton reduction in NO x emissions from projected 2000 levels as required by the 1990 Clean Air Act. These emission reductions have contributed to measurable improvements in air quality, reductions in acid deposition, and the beginnings of recovery of acid-sensitive waters in some areas: • SO2 concentrations in the atmosphere (a precursor to fine particles and acid deposition) have decreased since 1990. Average annual SO2 concentrations in the Northeast in 2000–2002 were 40% lower than they were in 1989–1991, concentrations in the mid-Atlantic were 30% lower, concentrations in the Southeast were 35% lower, and concentrations in the Midwest were 45% lower. • Sulfate concentrations in the atmosphere (a major component of fine particles, especially in the East) have decreased since 1990 as well. Average annual sulfate concentrations in the Northeast and Midwest in 2000–2002 were approximately 30% lower than they were in 1989–1991, and concentrations in the mid-Atlantic and Southeast were 25% lower. • Wet sulfate deposition, a major component of acid rain, has also decreased since 1990. Average annual sulfate deposition in the Northeast in 2000–2002 was 40% lower than it was in 1989–1991, deposition in the mid-Atlantic and Midwest was 35% lower, and deposition in the Southeast was 25% lower. • Wet nitrate deposition has not decreased regionally from historical levels because of the relatively moderate NO x reduction from power plants and the continuing large contribution (over 50% of total NOx emissions) from other sources of NO x such as vehicles and nonroad vehicles. • Although visibility has begun to improve in some parts of the U.S., there is still significant impairment of visibility in many national parks and other Class I areas throughout the U.S. • Acid neutralizing capacity is beginning to rise in some surface waters in the Northeast, including lakes in the Adirondack Mountains (see graphic below). This is an indication that recovery from acidification is occurring in those areas.

Report to Congress↗

Improved mapping of National Atmospheric Deposition Program wet-deposition in complex terrain using PRISM-gridded data sets

High-elevation regions in the United States lack detailed atmospheric wet-deposition data. The National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network (NADP/NTN) measures and reports precipitation amounts and chemical constituent concentration and deposition data for the United States on annual isopleth maps using inverse distance weighted (IDW) interpolation methods. This interpolation for unsampled areas does not account for topographic influences. Therefore, NADP/NTN isopleth maps lack detail and potentially underestimate wet deposition in high-elevation regions. The NADP/NTN wet-deposition maps may be improved using precipitation grids generated by other networks. The Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) produces digital grids of precipitation estimates from many precipitation-monitoring networks and incorporates influences of topographical and geographical features. Because NADP/NTN ion concentrations do not vary with elevation as much as precipitation depths, PRISM is used with unadjusted NADP/NTN data in this paper to calculate ion wet deposition in complex terrain to yield more accurate and detailed isopleth deposition maps in complex terrain. PRISM precipitation estimates generally exceed NADP/NTN precipitation estimates for coastal and mountainous regions in the western United States. NADP/NTN precipitation estimates generally exceed PRISM precipitation estimates for leeward mountainous regions in Washington, Oregon, and Nevada, where abrupt changes in precipitation depths induced by topography are not depicted by IDW interpolation. PRISM-based deposition estimates for nitrate can exceed NADP/NTN estimates by more than 100% for mountainous regions in the western United States.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗

Probability of detecting perchlorate under natural conditions in deep groundwater in California and the Southwestern United States

We use data from 1626 groundwater samples collected in California, primarily from public drinking water supply wells, to investigate the distribution of perchlorate in deep groundwater under natural conditions. The wells were sampled for the California Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment Priority Basin Project. We develop a logistic regression model for predicting probabilities of detecting perchlorate at concentrations greater than multiple threshold concentrations as a function of climate (represented by an aridity index) and potential anthropogenic contributions of perchlorate (quantified as an anthropogenic score, AS). AS is a composite categorical variable including terms for nitrate, pesticides, and volatile organic compounds. Incorporating water-quality parameters in AS permits identification of perturbation of natural occurrence patterns by flushing of natural perchlorate salts from unsaturated zones by irrigation recharge as well as addition of perchlorate from industrial and agricultural sources. The data and model results indicate low concentrations (0.1-0.5 &mu;g/L) of perchlorate occur under natural conditions in groundwater across a wide range of climates, beyond the arid to semiarid climates in which they mostly have been previously reported. The probability of detecting perchlorate at concentrations greater than 0.1 &mu;g/L under natural conditions ranges from 50-70% in semiarid to arid regions of California and the Southwestern United States to 5-15% in the wettest regions sampled (the Northern California coast). The probability of concentrations above 1 &mu;g/L under natural conditions is low (generally <3%).

California↗

Toxicity of copper to early-life stage Kootenai River white sturgeon, Columbia River white sturgeon, and rainbow trout

White sturgeon ( Acipenser transmontanus ) populations throughout western North America are in decline, likely as a result of overharvest, operation of dams, and agricultural and mineral extraction activities in their watersheds. Recruitment failure may reflect the loss of early-life stage fish in spawning areas of the upper Columbia River, which are contaminated with metals from effluents associated with mineral-extraction activities. Early-life stage white sturgeon ( A. transmontanus ) from the Columbia River and Kootenai River populations were exposed to copper during 96-h flow-through toxicity tests to determine their sensitivity to the metal. Similar tests were conducted with rainbow trout (RBT [ Oncorhynchus mykiss ]) to assess the comparative sensitivity of this species as a surrogate for white sturgeon. Exposures were conducted with a water quality pH 8.1-8.3, hardness 81-119 mg/L as CaCO 2 , and dissolved organic carbon 0.2-0.4 mg/L. At approximately 30 days posthatch (dph), sturgeon were highly sensitive to copper with median lethal concentration (LC 50 ) values ranging from 4.1 to 6.8 &mu;g/L compared with 36.5 &mu;g/L for 30 dph RBT. White sturgeon at 123-167 dph were less sensitive to copper with LC 50 values ranging from 103.7 to 268.9 &mu;g/L. RBT trout, however, remained more sensitive to copper at 160 dph with an LC 50 value of 30.9 &mu;g/L. The results indicate that high sensitivity to copper in early-life stage white sturgeon may be a factor in recruitment failure occurring in the upper Columbia and Kootenai rivers. When site-specific water-quality criteria were estimated using the biotic ligand model (BLM), derived values were not protective of early-life stage fish, nor were estimates derived by water-hardness adjustment.

Archives of Environmental Contamination and Toxico↗

Potential interactions between birds and floating photovoltaic solar energy: Spatially informed species vulnerabilities, techno-ecological risks, and sustainability trade-offs

Floating photovoltaics (floating solar panels; FPV) can reduce the negative impacts of solar energy development in terrestrial environments, but their effects on freshwater ecosystems remain poorly understood. We examined potential FPV interactions with avian biodiversity, using previously modeled technical potential of FPV in the northeastern United States. We developed a vulnerability index based on avian species’: (i) morphological traits, (ii) level of conservation concern, and (iii) habitat requirements. Using eBird participatory science data, we assessed the risk of FPV to 291 species of birds occurring at FPV-suitable waterbodies based on their vulnerability index and estimated relative abundance at each location. The greatest risk of FPVs to birds was associated with waterbodies near the Atlantic coast and Great Lakes, and most (80%) of these high-risk waterbodies were smaller waterbodies. Because the avian risk at FPV-suitable waterbodies was not correlated with estimated energy generation, reducing risk to birds might not require energy trade-offs. Moreover, avoiding FPV installations at waterbodies predicted to pose high risk to birds is likely to return social and recreational benefits while minimizing risk of biofouling. Our analysis provides a framework for proactively evaluating risk, reducing potential adverse impacts of FPV to birds, and identifying cobenefits of sustainable FPV siting across waterscapes.

Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachuse↗

Modeling geologic sequestration of carbon dioxide in a deep saline carbonate reservoir with TOUGH2–ChemPlugin, a new tool for reactive transport modeling

This paper outlines the development and demonstration of a new tool, TOUGH2–ChemPlugin (T2CPI) for predicting rock–water–CO 2 interaction following injection of supercritical CO 2 into a heterogeneous carbonate system. Specifically, modeling capabilities of TOUGH2, which examines multiphase flow and supercritical CO 2 behavior, were combined with the geochemical modeling capabilities of The Geochemist’s Workbench ® (GWB), using ChemPlugin TM . ChemPlugin is a self-linking re-entrant software object that, when coupled to a transport simulator, retains the flow and transport capabilities of the simulator but enables incorporation of reactive chemistry via GWB. To test and assess the capabilities of T2CPI, results from T2CPI simulations were compared to those of TOUGHREACT, using the same carbonate reservoir parameters (based on the Dollar Bay Formation of the South Florida Basin). Overall, results of simulations from TOUGHREACT and T2CPI were very similar for nearly all evaluated parameters. Dissimilarities between the two programs included qualitative differences in how TOUGHREACT and T2CPI predicted calcite dissolution and the subsequent spatial pattern of the porosity gain caused by how each handles evaporation of water near the injection point. The TOUGHREACT program is a proven, widely used tool for evaluating CO 2 –brine–rock interaction following supercritical CO 2 injection. The T2CPI tool offers similar capabilities and strengths of TOUGHREACT, with the ability to read in and use databases for a wide range of activity coefficient types. This program also has abilities to use a wide range of kinetic constraints, define those kinetic constraints with scripts or compiled libraries, account for colloidal transport, and/or account for a wide range of surface sorption models.

Florida↗

Porphyry copper assessment of Southeast Asia and Melanesia: Chapter D in Global mineral resource assessment

The U.S. Geological Survey collaborated with member countries of the Coordinating Committee for Geoscience Programmes in East and Southeast Asia (CCOP) on an assessment of the porphyry copper resources of Southeast Asia and Melanesia as part of a global mineral resource assessment. The region hosts world-class porphyry copper deposits and underexplored areas that are likely to contain undiscovered deposits. Examples of known porphyry copper deposits include Batu Hijau and Grasberg in Indonesia; Panguna, Frieda River, and Ok Tedi in Papua New Guinea; and Namosi in Fiji. This assessment covers the countries of Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao People&rsquo;s Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Myanmar, Papua New Guinea, Singapore, Thailand, and parts of southeastern China, India, the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, and Fiji. Twenty-two geographic areas were delineated as tracts that are permissive for porphyry copper deposits in Southeast Asia. Permissive tracts are grouped into four broadly defined geographic/geologic areas, as follows: (1) the Indochina Peninsula area, (2) Indonesian and Malaysian Islands, (3) New Guinea Island and Papuan New Guinea islands, and (4) Melanesia. Individual tracts range from less than 1,000 to more than 350,000 square kilometers in area. Permissive tracts are based on mapped and inferred subsurface (<1 kilometer depth) distributions of igneous rocks of specific age ranges that define magmatic arcs and magmatic belts that are likely to contain porphyry copper deposits. Most of these magmatic arcs are subduction-related, although some have porphyry-style deposits occurring in postcollisional and (or) poorly understood tectonic settings. Although maps at a variety of different scales were used in the compilation, the final tract boundaries are intended for use at a scale of 1:1,000,000. Global grade and tonnage models for porphyry copper deposits were evaluated. Most of the known deposits are best described as fitting the copper-gold (Cu-Au) subtype of porphyry copper deposit. For some permissive tracts, a general porphyry copper-gold-molybdenum (Cu-Au-Mo) model was used. Assessment participants estimated numbers of undiscovered deposits at different levels of confidence for most of the permissive tracts. These estimates were combined with grade and tonnage models using a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate undiscovered resources. Additional resources in extensions of deposits with identified resources were not evaluated. Assessment results, presented in tables and graphs, show mean amounts of metal and mineralized rock in undiscovered deposits at different quantile levels, as well as the arithmetic mean for each tract. This assessment estimated a mean of 89 undiscovered porphyry copper deposits for the assessed permissive tracts in Southeast Asia and Melanesia. About 288 million metric tons (Mt) of copper and 18,000 metric tons (t) of gold, as well as byproduct molybdenum and silver, could be associated with undiscovered deposits. This represents about four times the number of deposits with identified resources (23) already discovered in Southeast Asia; reliable reported identified resources for those 23 deposits total 84 Mt of copper and 6,000 t of gold. Eleven permissive tracts have no known porphyry copper deposits with reported resources. Three of those 11 tracts lacked sufficient information for a probabilistic assessment and are discussed in qualitative terms. On a regional basis, both the Indochina Peninsula area and the Indonesian-Malaysian Islands area are estimated to contain about 10 times as much in place copper in undiscovered porphyry copper deposits as has been identified to date. For the New Guinea Island areas, the ratio of undiscovered to identified copper resources is about 2. Some parts of the region have a long history of porphyry exploration cycles and mine development, interrupted at times by political and social unrest, environmental concerns, and natural disasters. Changes in mining laws within the region and the recent high price of gold on the world market have prompted renewed interest in porphyry copper deposits in Southeast Asia and Melanesia. However, predicted undiscovered deposits may not be found, and if found, may not be developed. This assessment includes an overview of the assessment results with summary tables. Detailed descriptions of each tract are included in appendixes, with estimates of numbers of undiscovered deposits, and probabilistic estimates of amounts of copper, molybdenum, gold, and silver that could be contained in undiscovered deposits for each permissive tract. A geographic information system (GIS) that accompanies the report includes tract boundaries and a database of known porphyry copper deposits and significant prospects.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Analysis of remedial scenarios affecting plume movement through a sole-source aquifer system, southeastern Nassau County, New York

A steady-state three-dimensional groundwater-flow model based on present conditions is coupled with the particle-tracking program MODPATH to assess the fate and transport of volatile organic-compound plumes within the Magothy and upper glacial aquifers in southeastern Nassau County, New York. Particles are forward tracked from locations within plumes defined by surfaces of equal concentration. Particles move toward ultimate well capture and discharge to the general head and drain boundaries representing natural receptors in the models. Because rates of advection within coarse-grained sediments typically exceed 0.1 foot per day, mechanisms of dispersion and diffusion were assumed to be negligible. Resulting particle pathlines are influenced by hydrogeologic framework features and the interplay of nearby hydrologic stresses. Simulated hydrologic effects include cones of depression near pumping wells and water-table mounding near points of treated water recharge; however, remedial pumping amounts are balanced by treated-water return, and net effects at distant regional boundaries, including freshwater/saltwater interfaces, are minor. Once a steady-state model was developed and calibrated, eight hypothetical remedial scenarios were evaluated to hydraulically contain the volatile organic-compound plumes. Specifically, the remedial scenarios were optimized to achieve full containment by altering the pumping-well locations, adjusting the pumping rates, and adjusting the discharge locations and rates. Based on the results, total hypothetical extraction rates varied from about 5,462 gallons per minute during an anticipated near-future condition to about 13,340 gallons per minute during full hydraulic containment of all site-related compounds identified by the New York State standards, criteria, and guidance for environmental investigations and cleanup. Targeting of high-concentration zones of the plume increases the total amount of remedial pumpage necessary to capture all parts of the plume but may decrease the total amount of time necessary to operate a remedial system. Simulated time frames of advective transport ranged from about 12 years to capture zones with elevated concentrations of volatile organic compounds (mean particle travel time plus the standard deviation of travel time) to more than 100 years to capture all zones. Groundwater-flow model analysis indicates that all the optimal plume-containment scenarios would have negligible effects on streams and the saltwater-freshwater interface along the south shore of Long Island. Massapequa, Bellmore, Seaman, and Seaford Creeks are represented by using MODFLOW drain-boundary conditions. Saltwater-freshwater interfaces are represented by using MODFLOW general head-boundary conditions where the Magothy aquifer discharges upward into saline groundwater across the Gardiners clay confining unit and the Lloyd aquifer discharges upward into saline groundwater across the Raritan confining unit.

New York↗