Monitoring polar ice change in the twilight zone
Landsat’s new extended data collection program is mapping Arctic and Antarctic regions year-round, even in polar twilight.
Eos, American Geophysical Union↗
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Organic matter composition versus microbial source: Controls on carbon loss from fen wetland and permafrost soils
Wetland and permafrost soils contain some of Earth's largest reservoirs of organic carbon, and these stores are threatened by rapid warming across the Arctic. Nearly half of northern wetlands are affected by permafrost. As these ecosystems warm, the cycling of dissolved organic matter (DOM) and the opportunities for microbial degradation are changing. This is particularly evident as the relationship between wetland and permafrost DOM dynamics evolves, especially with the introduction of permafrost-derived DOM into wetland environments. Thus, understanding the interplay of DOM composition and microbial communities from wetlands and permafrost is critical to predicting the impact of released carbon on global carbon cycling. As little is understood about the interactions between wetland active layer and permafrost-derived sources as they intermingle, we conducted experimental bioincubations of mixtures of DOM and microbial communities from two fen wetland depths (shallow: 0–15 cm, and deep: 15–30 cm) and two ages of permafrost soil (Holocene and Pleistocene). We found that the source of microbial inoculum was not a significant driver of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) degradation across treatments; rather, DOM source and specifically, DOM molecular composition, controlled the rate of DOC loss over 100 days of bioincubations. DOC loss across all treatments was negatively correlated with modified aromaticity index, O/C, and the relative abundance of condensed aromatic and polyphenolic formula, and positively correlated with H/C and the relative abundance of aliphatic and peptide-like formula. Pleistocene permafrost-derived DOC exhibited ∼70% loss during the bioincubation driven by its initial molecular-level composition, highlighting its high bioavailability irrespective of microbial source.
Alaska↗
Toward co-designed Earth System Models: Reflecting end-user priorities in local applications from a modeler's perspective
Earth System Models (ESM) are crucial for quantifying climate impacts across Earth's interconnected systems and supporting science-based adaptation and mitigation. However, not including end-users, especially decision-makers representing communities vulnerable to climate change, can limit model utility, increase epistemic risks, and lead to information misuse in decision-making. While the ESM community increasingly values broad community engagement, end-users may not initially perceive models as useful for local planning. Co-designing models with end-users fosters two-way learning: users better understand models and their outputs, while modelers gain insights into fine-scale local processes like monitoring practices and management priorities. Higher-level co-design can lead to more customized, priority-driven, and useful modeling products. Despite these benefits, modelers often struggle to initiate meaningful partnerships with local communities. Therefore, this paper explores model co-design from the perspective of modelers. This study presents two case studies where modelers and social scientists collaborated with Indigenous communities' decision-makers to reflect their priorities in model design and application. In the Arctic Rivers Project, high-resolution climate and hydrology data sets for Alaska were developed with guidance from an Indigenous Advisory Council, using optimized, coupled land-atmosphere models. In the Mid-Klamath Project, we partnered with the Karuk Tribe's Department of Natural Resources to assess climate change and prescribed burning impacts on terrestrial hydrology in the Klamath River Basin. Drawing from these studies, we introduce a four-level framework: (a) Co-design Configuration; (b) Model Tuning; (c) Incorporate Contextual Knowledge; (d) Co-develop New Model Functions. We aim to help researchers consider and compare co-design across diverse modeling projects systematically and coherently.
Alaska, California, Oregon↗
Interacting sea-level rise, sea-ice loss, storm flooding, erosion, and permafrost thaw threaten ecosystems, wildlife, and communities on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta
The Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta has the largest intertidal wetland in North America, is a globally critical breeding area for waterbirds, and is home to the largest regional indigenous population in the Arctic. Here, coastal tundra ecosystems, wildlife, and indigenous communities are highly vulnerable to sea-ice loss in the Bering Sea, sea-level rise, storm flooding, erosion, and collapsing ground from permafrost thaw caused by climate warming. These drivers interact in non-linear ways to increase flooding, salinization, and sedimentation, and thus, alter ecosystem trajectories and broader landscape evolution. Rapid changes in these factors over decadal time scales are highly likely to cause transformative shifts in coastal ecosystems across roughly 70% of the outer delta this century. We project saline and brackish ecotypes on the active delta floodplain with frequent sedimentation will maintain dynamic equilibrium with sea-level rise and flooding, slightly brackish ecotypes on the inactive floodplain with infrequent flooding and low sedimentation rates will be vulnerable to increased flooding and likely transition to more saline and brackish ecotypes, and fresh lacustrine and lowland ecotypes on the abandoned floodplain with permafrost plateaus will be vulnerable to thermokarst, salinization and flooding that will shift them toward brackish ecosystems. This will greatly affect bird nesting and foraging habitats, with both winners and losers. Already, some Yup'ik communities are facing relocation of their low-lying villages. The societal challenges and consequences of adapting to these changing landscapes are enormous and will require a huge societal effort.
Alaska↗
A sea ice entrapment event in the southern Chukchi Sea: Analysis and prediction
Amplified Arctic warming is reducing sea ice cover, which is driving an increase in geopolitical interest in the region as it offers the possibility of reducing shipping times between Asia, Europe, and eastern North America, at the risk of increased ice hazards. Here, we examine the case of the Norseman II research ship that was trapped by sea ice in the southern Chukchi Sea for 14 days in June 2024. This is the first study of its sort in this region. We show that anomalously thick and extensive sea ice was present north of the region prior to the event, and that strong northerly winds in early June advected this ice southward, trapping the ship. Later in June, southerly winds advected ice northwards away from the ship, helping to free it. We further show that the event was forecastable.
Alaska↗
Is the extent of glaciation limited by marine gas-hydrates?
Methane may have been released to the atmosphere during the Quaternary from Arctic shelf gas-hydrates as a result of thermal decomposition caused by climatic warming and rising sea-level; this release of methane (a greenhouse gas) may represent a positive feedback on global warming [Revelle, 1983; Kvenvolden, 1988a; Nisbet, 1990]. We consider the response to sea-level changes by the immense amount of gas-hydrate that exists in continental rise sediments, and suggest that the reverse situation may apply—that release of methane trapped in the deep-sea sediments as gas-hydrates may provide a negative feedback to advancing glaciation. Methane is likely to be released from deep-sea gas-hydrates as sea-level falls because methane gas-hydrates decompose with pressure decrease. Methane would be released to sediment pore space at shallow sub-bottom depths (100's of meters beneath the seafloor, commonly at water depths of 500 to 4,000 m) producing zones of markedly decreased sediment strength, leading to slumping [Carpenter, 1981; Kayen, 1988] and abrupt release of the gas. Methane is likely to be released to the atmosphere in spikes that become larger and more frequent as glaciation progresses. Because addition of methane to the atmosphere warms the planet, this process provides a negative feedback to glaciation, and could trigger deglaciation.
Geophysical Research Letters↗
The Beaufort Sea continental shelf as a seasonal source of atmospheric methane
Methane concentrations in the Beaufort Sea under the winter ice canopy offshore from northern Alaska are 3 to 28 times greater than they are in late summer when the ice is absent in a similar region offshore from northern Canada where methane is in approximate equilibrium with the atmosphere. These observations suggest that methane concentrates in the water under the sea‐ice cover during winter and ventilates rapidly in late summer as the ice melts and retreats. Conditions similar to those on the Beaufort Sea shelf likely exist on the much larger Siberian shelf, making the Arctic Ocean margin a possible seasonal, high‐latitude, marine source of about 0.1 Tg yr −1 atmospheric methane. The small addition of methane likely contributes to the late‐summer increase in atmospheric methane that is observed each year particularly in the northern hemisphere.
Alaska↗
Greenland Sea Odden sea ice feature: Intra-annual and interannual variability
The “Odden” is a large sea ice feature that forms in the east Greenland Sea that may protrude eastward to 5°E from the main sea ice pack (at about 8°W) between 73° and 77°N. It generally forms at the beginning of the winter season and can cover 300,000 km 2 . Throughout the winter the outer edge of the Odden may advance and retreat by several hundred kilometers on timescales of a few days to weeks. Satellite passive microwave observations from 1978 through 1995 provide a continuous record of the spatial and temporal variations of this extremely dynamic phenomenon. Aircraft synthetic aperture radar, satellite passive microwave, and ship observations in the Odden show that the Odden consists of new ice types, rather than older ice types advected eastward from the main pack. The 17-year record shows both strong interannual and intra-annual variations in Odden extent and temporal behavior. For example, in 1983 the Odden was weak, in 1984 the Odden did not occur, and in 1985 the Odden returned late in the season. An analysis of the ice area and extent time series derived from the satellite passive microwave observations along with meteorological data from the International Arctic Buoy Program (IABP) determined the meteorological forcing associated with Odden growth, maintenance, and decay. The key meteorological parameters that are related to the rapid ice formation and decay associated with the Odden are, in order of importance, air temperature, wind speed, and wind direction. Oceanographic parameters must play an important role in controlling Odden formation, but it is not yet possible to quantify this role because of a lack of long-term oceanographic observations.
Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
Early Cretaceous paleolatitude of the Yukon-Koyukuk province, Alaska
We report results from a paleomagnetic study of the Yukon-Koyukuk province, a key region for reconstructing the Cretaceous paleogeography of northern Alaska and northeastern Asia. The province lies between the displaced continental fragment of Arctic Alaska and the accreted terranes of southern Alaska. Although Lower Cretaceous volcanogenic rocks of the Yukon-Koyukuk province preserve primary remanent magnetizations, the primary component is masked by a pervasive overprint. The over-printing magnetization, which has dual polarity, was acquired after a Late Cretaceous orogeny left the region highly deformed. By fitting planes to tilt-corrected thermal demagnetization data and solving for the best intersection of the corresponding remagnetization circles, we separated the primary component, presumably a vestige of the original thermoremanent magnetization, from the overprinting component of the natural remanence. The primary magnetization corresponds to a mean paleopole of Early Cretaceous age at 60.2°N, 159°E. The mean paleolatitude is 69°N with the 95% confidence ellipse ranging from 60° to 75°N. This analysis was successful because the tilt corrections of the sampled strata had sufficient variation to ensure a strong intersection of the remagnetization circles. We infer that Lower Cretaceous rocks of the Brooks Range and the Yukon-Koyukuk province were once separated by a wide ocean basin that was closed by subduction, probably during the Cretaceous. The northern limb of the Angayucham terrane, which lies between the Brooks Range and the Yukon-Koyukuk province, may contain remnants of the now-closed ocean basin.
Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗
Tectonic setting of the Yukon-Koyukuk basin and its borderlands, western Alaska
The Yukon-Koyukuk basin of western Alaska is composed of an arcuate belt of Jurassic and Early Cretaceous subduction-related volcanic and plutonic rocks (Koyukuk terrane) flanked by deep subbasins filled with mid-Cretaceous terrigenous sedimentary rocks. The basin is bordered on three sides by metamorphosed Proterozoic and Paleozoic continental rocks (Seward, Arctic Alaska, and Ruby terranes) and is separated from the metamorphic borderlands by a narrow, highly tectonized belt of oceanic crust and mantle rocks (composite Angayucham-Tozitna terrane). The oceanic and mantle rocks, which dip inward beneath the basin and are thrust outward onto the borderlands, are divided into three separate thrust panels: (1) a structurally lowest panel (Slate Creek) composed of phyllite and metagraywacke of probable Devonian age, (2) a middle panel (Narvak) composed of imbricated basalt, chert, and gabbro of Devonian to Early Jurassic age, and (3) a structurally highest panel (Kanuti) composed of gabbro and peridotite of probable Middle and Late Jurassic age. The three thrust panels appear to represent a reversely stacked sequence that progresses from continental slope deposits in the lower panel to cumulus and mantle peridotites in the upper. Metamorphic mineral K-Ar ages from garnet amphibolite on the sole of the upper panel suggest that the upper panel was emplaced on the middle panel in the Middle to Late Jurassic. Subsequent accretion of all three panels to the continental rocks of the borderlands occurred in the latest Jurassic and Early Cretaceous, synchronous with arc volcanism within the basin. Arc volcanism waned and the accretionary phase ended in the middle of Early Cretaceous time. Uplift and erosion of the metamorphic borderlands and the obducted oceanic rocks began in late Early Cretaceous and was accompanied by the rapid filling of two flanking subbasins with turbiditic sediments. In the latest Early Cretaceous and early Late Cretaceous, shallow marine and nonmarine conglomerates were deposited around the margins of the basin, and a prograding delta was built out from the southeast margin of the basin across the turbiditic subbasins and the remnant volcanic arc. In the Late Cretaceous, western Alaska was subjected to strong east-west compression which severely deformed both the Yukon-Koyukuk basin and the borderlands. Several widespread magmatic episodes in the mid- and Late Cretaceous and in early Tertiary transgress the basin boundaries and stitch together the accreted arc and oceanic terranes and the continental borderlands.
Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗
The nature of the crust in the Yukon-Koyukuk province as inferred from the chemical and isotopic composition of five Late Cretaceous to Early Tertiary volcanic fields in western Alaska
Late Cretaceous and early Tertiary volcanic and plutonic rocks in western Alaska comprise a vast magmatic province extending from the Alaska Range north to the Arctic Circle, south to Bristol Bay, and west to the Bering Sea Shelf. The chemical and isotopic composition of five of these Late Cretaceous to early Tertiary volcanic fields in the north central part of this province were studied to determine if Paleozoic or older continental crust underlies the Yukon-Koyukuk province. Three of the fields, the Blackburn Hills, Yukon River, and Kanuti, occur within the Yukon-Koyukuk province and two, the Sischu and Nowitna, overlie bordering Precambrian and Paleozoic metamorphic terranes to the southeast. High initial 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of 0.7075–0.7079 and moderate initial 143 Nd/ 144 Nd of 0.51244–0.51247 of rhyolite, dacite, and high-silica andesite of the Sischu volcanic field indicate that the magmas have interacted with the underlying Paleozoic or older continental crust. The relatively limited variation of isotopic (initial 87 Sr/ 86 Sr = 0.7044–0.7051; initial 143 Nd/ 144 Nd = 0.51256–0.51257) and elemental compositions of andesites from the Nowitna field can be accounted for by assimilation of small amounts of Paleozoic or older continental crust during crystal fractionation of andesite parent magmas at crustal levels. The Blackburn Hills field, which consists of medium-K basalt, andesite, and rhyolite intruded by a small granitic pluton, has a large range in initial 87 Sr/ 86 Sr and initial 143 Nd/ 144 Nd that plot in the field for 60 Ma mantle, from near mid-ocean ridge basalts to near “bulk-earth” compositions (initial 87 Sr/ 86 Sr = 0.7033–0.7052; initial 143 Nd/ 144 Nd = 0.51253–0.51290). Andesites and basalts from the Blackburn Hills are divided into two group on the basis of rare earth element (REE) and isotopic composition. Isotopic variation in the more primitive group 1 is best explained by assimilation of the lower crust of the Jurassic to Early Cretaceous Koyukuk terrane by mantle-derived basalts during crystal fractionation, though part of the isotopic variation may be due to metasomatism of an oceanic island basalt type mantle source by fluids derived from subducted sediments. Group 2 andesites from the Blackburn Hills have lower heavy REE abundances and more enriched isotopic compositions. These group 2 andesites and dacites from the Kanuti field, which have ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) i = 0.7043–0.7048 and ( 143 Nd/ 144 Nd) i = 0.51248–0.51267, appear to have formed by partial melting of the lower crust of the Koyukuk terrane. The Yukon River field consists of basalt, andesite, dacite, and rhyolite having ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) i = 0.7037–0.7051 and ( 143 Nd/ 144 Nd) i = 0.51266–0.51280; its isotopic composition does not require the presence of Paleozoic or older continental crust under the volcanic field and may have formed by interaction between mantle-derived melts and the oceanic Angayucham/Tozitna or island arc Koyukuk terrane. Most of the intrusive rocks and rhyolite domes from the Blackburn Hills volcanic field have ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) i = 0.7038–0.7041 and dacites from the Kanuti volcanic field have ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) i = 0.7043–0.7048. Thus little or no old continental crust was involved in the genesis of the Late Cretaceous and early Tertiary rocks and therefore probably does not extend beneath this part of the Yukon-Koyukuk province. However, the ultimate source of the small volumes of enriched shoshonitic andesite ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr = 0.7075, 143 Nd/ 144 Nd = 0.5125) erupted at 118 Ma in the Yukon-Koyukuk province may be continental lithosphere, which may have been thrust under this part of the Yukon-Koyukuk province during arc-continent collision in the Early Cretaceous.
Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗
Evaporation and runoff from snow in the Alpine Zone of our western mountains
In this informal paper the processes of snow‐wastage at high altitudes were discussed and a number of slides illustrating suncups and sunpits in different stages of development were shown. It was stressed that these features are peculiar to the region above the timber‐line, which biologists term the Alpine, or Arctic‐Alpine, Zone. That regions is, as a matter of fact, primarily and fundamentally a physiographic zone distinct from all other physiographic zones at lower levels by reason of an unusual combination of climatic, hydrologic, and geologic factors.
Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗
Detecting failure of climate predictions
The practical consequences of climate change challenge society to formulate responses that are more suited to achieving long-term objectives, even if those responses have to be made in the face of uncertainty 1 , 2 . Such a decision-analytic focus uses the products of climate science as probabilistic predictions about the effects of management policies 3 . Here we present methods to detect when climate predictions are failing to capture the system dynamics. For a single model, we measure goodness of fit based on the empirical distribution function, and define failure when the distribution of observed values significantly diverges from the modelled distribution. For a set of models, the same statistic can be used to provide relative weights for the individual models, and we define failure when there is no linear weighting of the ensemble models that produces a satisfactory match to the observations. Early detection of failure of a set of predictions is important for improving model predictions and the decisions based on them. We show that these methods would have detected a range shift in northern pintail 20 years before it was actually discovered, and are increasingly giving more weight to those climate models that forecast a September ice-free Arctic by 2055.
Nature Climate Change↗
Widespread methane leakage from the sea floor on the northern US Atlantic margin
Methane emissions from the sea floor affect methane inputs into the atmosphere, ocean acidification and de-oxygenation, the distribution of chemosynthetic communities and energy resources. Global methane flux from seabed cold seeps has only been estimated for continental shelves, at 8 to 65 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , yet other parts of marine continental margins are also emitting methane. The US Atlantic margin has not been considered an area of widespread seepage, with only three methane seeps recognized seaward of the shelf break. However, massive upper-slope seepage related to gas hydrate degradation has been predicted for the southern part of this margin, even though this process has previously only been recognized in the Arctic. Here we use multibeam water-column backscatter data that cover 94,000 km 2 of sea floor to identify about 570 gas plumes at water depths between 50 and 1,700 m between Cape Hatteras and Georges Bank on the northern US Atlantic passive margin. About 440 seeps originate at water depths that bracket the updip limit for methane hydrate stability. Contemporary upper-slope seepage there may be triggered by ongoing warming of intermediate waters, but authigenic carbonates observed imply that emissions have continued for more than 1,000 years at some seeps. Extrapolating the upper-slope seep density on this margin to the global passive margin system, we suggest that tens of thousands of seeps could be discoverable.
U.S. Atlantic Margin↗
Global change-driven use of onshore habitat impacts polar bear faecal microbiota
The gut microbiota plays a critical role in host health, yet remains poorly studied in wild species. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus), key indicators of Arctic ecosystem health and environmental change, are currently affected by rapid shifts in habitat that may alter gut homeostasis. Declining sea ice has led to a divide in the southern Beaufort Sea polar bear subpopulation such that an increasing proportion of individuals now inhabit onshore coastal regions during the open-water period (‘onshore bears’) while others continue to exhibit their typical behaviour of remaining on the ice (‘offshore bears’). We propose that bears that have altered their habitat selection in response to climate change will exhibit a distinct gut microbiota diversity and composition, which may ultimately have important consequences for their health. Here, we perform the first assessment of abundance and diversity in the faecal microbiota of wild polar bears using 16S rRNA Illumina technology. We find that bacterial diversity is significantly higher in onshore bears compared to offshore bears. The majority of unique bacterial taxa for onshore bears belonged to the phyla Proteobacteria (a proposed indicator of poor health in adult humans), whereas for offshore bears, Firmicutes (associated with adiposity) dominated. We conclude that climate-driven changes in polar bear land use are associated with distinct microbial communities. In doing so, we present the first case of global change mediated alterations in the gut microbiota of a free-roaming wild animal.
Alaska↗
Integrating hydrology and biogeochemistry across frozen landscapes
Research has traditionally focused on atmospheric release of carbon from thawing permafrost, yet overlooked waterborne release pathways likely contribute significantly, especially in a warming Arctic. To address this knowledge gap and better constrain the fate of carbon in the North, we recommend inter-disciplinary efforts bridging physical, chemical and computational research.
Nature Communications↗
Experimental warming differentially affects vegetative and reproductive phenology of tundra plants
Rapid climate warming is altering Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystem structure and function, including shifts in plant phenology. While the advancement of green up and flowering are well-documented, it remains unclear whether all phenophases, particularly those later in the season, will shift in unison or respond divergently to warming. Here, we present the largest synthesis to our knowledge of experimental warming effects on tundra plant phenology from the International Tundra Experiment. We examine the effect of warming on a suite of season-wide plant phenophases. Results challenge the expectation that all phenophases will advance in unison to warming. Instead, we find that experimental warming caused: (1) larger phenological shifts in reproductive versus vegetative phenophases and (2) advanced reproductive phenophases and green up but delayed leaf senescence which translated to a lengthening of the growing season by approximately 3%. Patterns were consistent across sites, plant species and over time. The advancement of reproductive seasons and lengthening of growing seasons may have significant consequences for trophic interactions and ecosystem function across the tundra.
Nature Communications↗
Polar bear energetic and behavioral strategies on land with implications for surviving the ice-free period
Declining Arctic sea ice is increasing polar bear land use. Polar bears on land are thought to minimize activity to conserve energy. Here, we measure the daily energy expenditure (DEE), diet, behavior, movement, and body composition changes of 20 different polar bears on land over 19–23 days from August to September (2019–2022) in Manitoba, Canada. Polar bears on land exhibited a 5.2-fold range in DEE and 19-fold range in activity, from hibernation-like DEEs to levels approaching active bears on the sea ice, including three individuals that made energetically demanding swims totaling 54–175 km. Bears consumed berries, vegetation, birds, bones, antlers, seal, and beluga. Beyond compensating for elevated DEE, there was little benefit from terrestrial foraging toward prolonging the predicted time to starvation, as 19 of 20 bears lost mass (0.4–1.7 kg•day −1 ). Although polar bears on land exhibit remarkable behavioral plasticity, our findings reinforce the risk of starvation, particularly in subadults, with forecasted increases in the onshore period.
Manitoba↗