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Conceptual and numerical models of the glacial aquifer system north of Aberdeen, South Dakota

This U.S. Geological Survey report documents a conceptual and numerical model of the glacial aquifer system north of Aberdeen, South Dakota, that can be used to evaluate and manage the city of Aberdeen's water resources. The glacial aquifer system in the model area includes the Elm, Middle James, and Deep James aquifers, with intervening confining units composed of glacial till. The Elm aquifer ranged in thickness from less than 1 to about 95 feet (ft), with an average thickness of about 24 ft; the Middle James aquifer ranged in thickness from less than 1 to 91 ft, with an average thickness of 13 ft; and the Deep James aquifer ranged in thickness from less than 1 to 165 ft, with an average thickness of 23 ft. The confining units between the aquifers consisted of glacial till and ranged in thickness from 0 to 280 ft. The general direction of groundwater flow in the Elm aquifer in the model area was from northwest to southeast following the topography. Groundwater flow in the Middle James aquifer was to the southeast. Sparse data indicated a fairly flat potentiometric surface for the Deep James aquifer. Horizontal hydraulic conductivity for the Elm aquifer determined from aquifer tests ranged from 97 to 418 feet per day (ft/d), and a confined storage coefficient was determined to be 2.4x10 -5 . Estimates of the vertical hydraulic conductivity of the sediments separating the Elm River from the Elm aquifer, determined from the analysis of temperature gradients, ranged from 0.14 to 2.48 ft/d. Average annual precipitation in the model area was 19.6 inches per year (in/yr), and agriculture was the primary land use. Recharge to the Elm aquifer was by infiltration of precipitation through overlying outwash, lake sediments, and glacial till. The annual recharge for the model area, calculated by using a soil-water-balance method for water year (WY) 1975-2009, ranged from 0.028 inch in WY 1980 to 4.52 inches in WY 1986, with a mean of 1.56 inches. The annual potential evapotranspiration, calculated in soil-water-balance analysis, ranged from 21.8 inches in WY 1983 to 27.0 inches in WY 1985, with a mean of 24.6 inches. Water use from the glacial aquifer system primarily was from the Elm aquifer for irrigation, municipal, and suburban water supplies, and the annual rate ranged from 1.0 to 2.4 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s). The MODFLOW-2005 numerical model represented the Elm aquifer, the Middle James aquifer, and the Deep James aquifer with model layers 1-3 respectively separated by confining layers 1-2 respectively. Groundwater flow was simulated with 75 stress periods beginning October 1, 1974, and ending September 30, 2009. Model grid spacing was 200 by 200 ft and boundaries were represented by specified-head boundaries and no-flow boundaries. The model used parameter estimation that focused on minimizing the difference between 954 observed and simulated hydraulic heads for 135 wells. Calibrated mean horizontal hydraulic conductivity values for model layers 1-3 were 94, 41, and 30 ft/d respectively. Vertical hydraulic conductivity values for confining layers 1 and 2 were 0.0002 and 0.0003 ft/d, respectively. Calibrated specific yield for model layer 1was 0.1 and specific storage ranged from 0.0003 to 0.0005 per foot. Calibrated mean recharge rates ranged from 2.5 in/yr where glacial till thickness was less than 10 ft to 0.8 in/yr where glacial till thickness was greater than 30 ft. Calibrated mean annual evapotranspiration rate was 8.8 in/yr. Simulated net streamflow gain from model layer 1 was 3.1 ft 3 /s.

South Dakota↗

National Park Service Vegetation Mapping Inventory Program: Natchez Trace Parkway vegetation mapping project report

The National Park Service (NPS) Vegetation Mapping Inventory (VMI) Program is an effort to classify, describe, and map existing vegetation of national park units for the NPS Natural Resource Inventory and Monitoring (I&M) Program. The NPS VMI Program is managed by the NPS I&M Division and provides baseline vegetation information to the NPS Natural Resource I&M Program. The U.S. Geological Survey Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, NatureServe, NPS Gulf Coast Network, and NPS Natchez Trace Parkway (NATR; also referred to as Parkway) have completed vegetation classification and mapping of NATR for the NPS VMI Program. Mappers, ecologists, and botanists collaborated to affirm vegetation types within the U.S. National Vegetation Classification (USNVC) of NATR and to determine how best to map them by using aerial imagery. Analyses of data from 589 vegetation plots had been used to describe an initial 99 USNVC associations in the Parkway; this classification work was completed prior to beginning this NATR vegetation mapping project. Data were collected during this project from another eight quick plots to support new vegetation types not previously identified at the Parkway. Data from 120 verification sites were collected to test the field key to vegetation associations and the application of vegetation associations to a sample set of map polygons. Furthermore, data from 900 accuracy assessment (AA) sites were collected (of which 894 were used to test accuracy of the vegetation map layer). The collective of all these datasets resulted in affirming 122 USNVC associations at NATR. To map the vegetation and open water of NATR, 63 map classes were developed. including the following: 54 map classes represent natural (including ruderal) vegetation types in the USNVC, 5 map classes represent cultural (agricultural and developed) vegetation types in the USNVC, 3 map classes represent nonvegetation open-water bodies (non-USNVC), and 1 map class represents landscapes that had received tornado damage a few months prior to the time of aerial imagery collection. Features were interpreted from viewing 4-band digital aerial imagery by means of digital onscreen three-dimensional stereoscopic workflow systems in geographic information systems. (The aerial imagery was collected during mid-October 2011 for the northern reach of the Parkway and mid-November 2011 for the southern reach of the Parkway to capture peak leaf-phenology of trees.) The interpreted data were digitally and spatially referenced, thus making the spatial-database layers usable in geographic information systems. Polygon units were mapped to either a 0.5 hectare (ha) or 0.25 ha minimum mapping unit, depending on vegetation type or scenario. A geodatabase containing various feature-class layers and tables present the locations of USNVC vegetation types (vegetation map), vegetation plot samples, verification sites, AA sites, project boundary extent, and aerial image centers. The feature-class layer and related tables for the vegetation map provide 13,529 polygons of detailed attribute data covering 21,655.5 ha, with an average polygon size of 1.6 ha; the vegetation map coincides closely with the administrative boundary for NATR. Summary reports generated from the vegetation map layer of the map classes representing USNVC natural (including ruderal) vegetation types apply to 12,648 polygons (93.5% of polygons) and cover 18,542.7 ha (85.6%) of the map extent for NATR. The map layer indicates the Parkway to be 70.5% forest and woodland (15,258.7 ha), 0.3% shrubland (63.0 ha), and 14.9% herbaceous cover (3,221.0 ha). Map classes representing USNVC cultural types apply to 678 polygons (5.0% of polygons) and cover 2,413.9 ha (11.1%) of the map extent.

Natural Resource Report↗

2011 floods of the central United States

The Central United States experienced record-setting flooding during 2011, with floods that extended from headwater streams in the Rocky Mountains, to transboundary rivers in the upper Midwest and Northern Plains, to the deep and wide sand-bedded lower Mississippi River. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as part of its mission, collected extensive information during and in the aftermath of the 2011 floods to support scientific analysis of the origins and consequences of extreme floods. The information collected for the 2011 floods, combined with decades of past data, enables scientists and engineers from the USGS to provide syntheses and scientific analyses to inform emergency managers, planners, and policy makers about life-safety, economic, and environmental-health issues surrounding flood hazards for the 2011 floods and future floods like it. USGS data, information, and scientific analyses provide context and understanding of the effect of floods on complex societal issues such as ecosystem and human health, flood-plain management, climate-change adaptation, economic security, and the associated policies enacted for mitigation. Among the largest societal questions is "How do we balance agricultural, economic, life-safety, and environmental needs in and along our rivers?" To address this issue, many scientific questions have to be answered including the following: * How do the 2011 weather and flood conditions compare to the past weather and flood conditions and what can we reasonably expect in the future for flood magnitudes? * What is the “natural” hydrology of these watersheds and how have they been changed? * How do rivers change during floods and what effects do they have on the natural and built environment: conversely, what effects do the natural and built environments have on rivers and floods? * Do floods contribute to the transport and fate of contaminants that affect human and ecosystem health? In an effort to help address these and other questions, USGS Professional Paper 1798 consists of independent but complementary chapters dealing with various scientific aspects of the 2011 floods in the Central United States.

Professional Paper↗

A GIS-based groundwater travel time model to evaluate stream nitrate concentration reductions from land use change

Excessive nitrate-nitrogen (nitrate) loss from agricultural watersheds is an environmental concern. A common conservation practice to improve stream water quality is to retire vulnerable row croplands to grass. In this paper, a groundwater travel time model based on a geographic information system (GIS) analysis of readily available soil and topographic variables was used to evaluate the time needed to observe stream nitrate concentration reductions from conversion of row crop land to native prairie in Walnut Creek watershed, Iowa. Average linear groundwater velocity in 5-m cells was estimated by overlaying GIS layers of soil permeability, land slope (surrogates for hydraulic conductivity and gradient, respectively) and porosity. Cells were summed backwards from the stream network to watershed divide to develop a travel time distribution map. Results suggested that groundwater from half of the land planted in prairie has reached the stream network during the 10 years of ongoing water quality monitoring. The mean travel time for the watershed was estimated to be 10.1 years, consistent with results from a simple analytical model. The proportion of land in the watershed and subbasins with prairie groundwater reaching the stream (10-22%) was similar to the measured reduction of stream nitrate (11-36%). Results provide encouragement that additional nitrate reductions in Walnut Creek are probable in the future as reduced nitrate groundwater from distal locations discharges to the stream network in the coming years. The high spatial resolution of the model (5-m cells) and its simplicity may make it potentially applicable for land managers interested in communicating lag time issues to the public, particularly related to nitrate concentration reductions over time. ?? 2007 Springer-Verlag.

Environmental Geology↗

Preface—Evaluating the response of critical zone processes to human impacts with sediment source fingerprinting

1) Background: Critical Zone Processes in the Anthropocene The Earth’s Critical Zone encompasses a suite of interconnected processes in the near-surface lithosphere, pedosphere, biosphere, atmosphere, and hydrosphere (Brantley et al., 2007; Lin, 2010) (Fig. 1). Processes and interactions both within and between these various Critical Zone components supports life-sustaining ecosystem services and resources that establish the foundation for humanity (NRC, 2001). This includes the formation production of fertile soils, flourishing vegetation, productive rivers, lakes and oceans, and our life-sustaining atmosphere (Gaillardet, 2014; Guo and Lin, 2016). Rapid population growth, land use intensification, and global environmental change are disturbing many of these fundamental Critical Zone processes. More than half of the Earth’s terrestrial surface is now impacted by anthropogenic activities (e.g., clearing, grazing, plowing, mining, and logging) (Hooke et al., 2012; Richter and Mobley, 2009). These changes are so widespread and pervasive that the great acceleration of socioeconomic development that occurred around 1950 (Fig. 2) has been recommended to delineate the dawn of the Anthropocene (Waters et al., 2016). Although the utility of adopting and delineating the Anthropocene as the current epoch is subject to debate (Crutzen, 2002; Ruddiman et al., 2015; Smith and Zeder, 2013), the concept effectively highlights both the nature and the extent of our global impact on Earth’s Critical Zone. Soil forming processes and ecosystem services provided by the pedosphere are central to the Critical Zone (Banwart et al., 2011; Lin, 2010). Many of these processes have been disturbed by the agricultural intensification that coincided with the great acceleration resulting in unsustainable land use practices now outpacing soil formation processes (Brantley et al., 2007). As agricultural landscapes now cover an area equivalent to what was scoured during the last glacial maximum (Amundson et al., 2007), the broad-scale intensification of anthropogenic activities has resulted in significant on- and off-site impacts. On-site, soil loss has resulted in decreases in soil fertility and agricultural yields (Ladha et al., 2009) threatening the ability to feed the world’s growing population (Brantley et al., 2007). Off-site, the excess delivery of particulate matter downstream is degrading riverine, lacustrine, and estuarine ecosystems (Bilotta and Brazier, 2008; Clark, 1985; Owens et al., 2005). The challenge, as noted by Brantley et al., (2007), is that despite our society having over 10,000 years of experience working with soils, our conceptual and quantitative models remain inadequate at predicting Critical Zone dynamics under current conditions. Notwithstanding growing pressure for improved environmental management, we still have a limited capacity to predict changes in the Critical Zone in response to anthropogenic activities owing to the multiple spatial and temporal scales at which these complex processes and feedbacks are manifest. As river basin systems are impacted by many of these processes, a deep understanding of soil-sediment continuum dynamics may provide a valuable framework for evaluating the disturbance response of Critical Zone processes. Understanding these processes may also provide land and resource managers with the information necessary to manage both the on-site and off-site effects of accelerated soil erosion.

Journal of Soils and Sediments↗

Sedimentation rates in the marshes of Sand Lake National Wildlife Refuge

Impoundments located within river systems in the Northern Great Plains are vulnerable to sediment inputs because intensive agriculture in watersheds has increased soil erosion and sediments in rivers. At the request of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), we evaluated the vertical accretion of sediment in the Mud Lake impoundment of Sand Lake National Wildlife Refuge (NWR), Brown County, South Dakota. The Mud Lake impoundment was created in 1936 by constructing a low-head dam across the James River. We collected sediment cores from the Mud Lake impoundment during August 2000 for determination of vertical accretion rates. Accretion rates were estimated using cesium-13 7 and lead-210 isotopic dating techniques to estimate sediment accretion over the past 100 years. Accretion rates were greatest near the dam (1.3 cm yr-1) with less accretion (0.2 cm yr-1) occurring in the upper reaches of Mud Lake. As expected, accretion was highest near the dam where water velocities and greater water depth facilitates sediment deposition. Higher rates of sedimentation (accretion> 2.0 cm year-1) occurred during the 1990s when river flows were especially high. Since 1959, sediment accretion has reduced maximum pool depth of Mud Lake near the dam by 55 cm. Assuming that sediment accretion rates remain the same in the future, we project Mud Lake will have a maximum pool depth of 77 and 51 cm by 2020 and 2040, respectively. Over this same time frame, water depths in the upper reaches of Mud Lake would be reduced to< 2 cm. Projected future loss of water depth will severely limit the ability of managers to manipulate pool levels in Mud Lake to cycle vegetation and create interspersion of cover and water to meet current wildlife habitat management objectives. As predicted for major dams constructed on rivers throughout the world, Mud Lake will have a finite life span. Our data suggests that the functional life span of Mud Lake since construction will be < 100 years. We anticipate that over the next 20 years, sediments entering Mud Lake will reduce water depths to the point that current wildlife management objectives cannot be achieved through customary water-level manipulations. Sedimentation impacts are not unique to the Sand Lake NWR. It is widely accepted that impoundments trap sediments and shallow impoundments, such as those managed by the FWS, are especially vulnerable. Given the ecological impacts associated with loss of water depths, we recommend that managers begin evaluating the long-term wildlife management goals for the refuge relative to associated costs and feasibility of options available to enhance and maximize the life span of existing impoundments, including upper watershed management.

Report↗

Modeling global indices for estimating non-photosynthetic vegetation cover

Non-photosynthetic vegetation (NPV) includes plant litter, senesced leaves, and crop residues. NPV plays an essential role in terrestrial ecosystem processes, and is an important indicator of drought severity, ecosystem disturbance, agricultural resilience, and wildfire danger. Current moderate spatial resolution multispectral satellite systems (e.g., Landsat and Sentinel-2) have only a single band in the 2000–2500 nm shortwave infrared “SWIR2” range where non-pigment biochemical constituents of NPV, including cellulose and lignin, have important spectral absorption features. Thus, these current systems have suboptimal capabilities for characterizing NPV cover. This research used simulated spectral mixtures accounting for variability among NPV and soils to evaluate globally-appropriate hyperspectral and multispectral indices for estimation of fractional NPV cover. The Continuum Interpolated NPV Depth Index (CINDI), a weighted ratio index measuring lignocellulose absorption near 2100 nm, was found to produce the lowest error in estimating NPV cover. CINDI was less sensitive to variability in soil spectra and green vegetation cover than competing indices. While CINDI was sensitive to the relative water content of soil and NPV, this sensitivity allowed for correcting error in estimated NPV cover as water content increased. CINDI bands were less capable than Dual Absorption NPV Index (DANI) bands for maintaining continuity with the heritage Landsat SWIR2 band, but combining multiple CINDI bands demonstrated adequate continuity. Three SWIR2 bands with band centers at 2038, 2108, and 2211 nm can provide superior capabilities for future moderate resolution multispectral/superspectral systems targeting NPV monitoring, including the next generation Landsat mission (Landsat Next). These bands and the associated CINDI index provide potential for global NPV monitoring using a constellation of future superspectral sensors and imaging spectrometers, with applications including improving soil management, preventing land degradation, evaluating impacts of drought, mapping ecosystem disturbance, and assessing wildfire danger.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗

Assessment of water levels, nitrate, and arsenic in the Carson Valley Alluvial Aquifer and the development of a data visualization tool for the Carson River Basin, Nevada

Residents of Carson Valley, Douglas County, Nevada, rely on the basin-fill alluvial aquifer underlying the valley for drinking water. Since the 1980s, groundwater levels and water-quality data have been collected to monitor the status of the aquifer system and to assist in planning efforts to address current (2024) and future demand. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Douglas County, Nevada, evaluated trends in water levels, nitrate, and arsenic concentrations from a network of monitoring and domestic wells in Carson Valley. This work also assessed the monitoring well network to determine the suitability of wells for characterizing the occurrence of arsenic in the groundwater. Monitoring of constituents, such as nitrate and arsenic concentrations, is needed to assess changes in contaminant distribution and to evaluate the effect that changing land use and groundwater pumping has on their occurrence and transport. Results of the trend analysis indicate water levels are declining ( p <0.05) in 17 of 26 selected monitoring wells (65 percent). Areas with the largest change in water levels, with more than 20 feet of declines, were within the community areas of Johnson Lane, Ruhenstroth, South Agricultural, East Valley, and Fish Springs. Variations in water levels measured in wells from the Central Agricultural, Minden, Foothill, Alpine County (one well), and Gardnerville Ranchos areas show periods of increase and decrease over time, but they also maintain long-term declining trends ( p <0.05). Increases in nitrate concentrations in groundwater samples collected from 9 out of 14 selected monitoring wells (64 percent) are statistically significant ( p <0.05) within the Ruhenstroth, Gardnerville Ranchos, East Valley, Genoa, and Johnson Lane community areas. Samples collected from a well in Indian Hills/Jacks Valley indicated a decreasing trend in nitrate concentration over time. Nitrate concentrations in samples collected from wells in East Valley, Genoa, Johnson Lane, and Indian Hills/Jack Valley were consistently low (less than 3 milligrams per liter [mg/L]) and stable. Nitrate concentrations from selected wells in Johnson Lane and Garnerville Ranchos exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) maximum contaminant level (MCL) of 10 mg/L (as nitrogen) and have trends that are increasing over time. In 2022, a sample collected from Johnson Lane had a concentration (7.3 mg/L) below the MCL with an increasing trend over time. Temporal trend analyses for groundwater arsenic concentrations in Carson Valley could not be done because of a lack of temporal data. However, using available historical data, arsenic concentrations seem to be greater in groundwater from wells located on the eastern and northern areas of the valley than in wells located on the western or southern areas. Groundwater arsenic concentrations exceed 5 micrograms per liter (μg/L) in most samples collected from wells in Johnson Lane, Airport, Central Agricultural, and East Valley areas and in many cases exceed the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) MCL of 10 μg/L. Data indicate that groundwater from domestic wells screened at deeper intervals are likely more vulnerable to elevated arsenic concentrations than shallower wells. A groundwater network evaluation for Carson Valley identified potential modifications in the sampling locations and frequency to better understand the effect of groundwater pumping in communities where municipal and domestic demand are greatest, potentially enhancing understanding of contaminant transport in these areas. Potential modifications to the active well network include reducing the frequency of sample collection from existing network wells (6 out of 11) that have consistently shown low and stable nitrate concentrations, adding wells in areas where data are sparse, and increasing the number of wells in areas with elevated groundwater nitrate concentrations. Including the analysis of arsenic in samples from the active groundwater monitoring well network will provide more detail on the temporal and spatial variability of arsenic concentrations. A visualization tool for the Carson River Basin was developed to provide access to discrete and near real-time hydrologic and water-quality data. The Carson River Basin Hydro Mapper (CBH; U.S. Geological Survey, 2023b) shows active and historical discrete water levels measured by the USGS and the State of Nevada Division of Water Resources, discrete groundwater nitrate and arsenic concentration data collected by the USGS, near real-time streamflow, and surface water levels for select waterbodies. The hydrologic data in the CBH provides resource managers, the public, and the scientific community with an easily accessible tool to present and communicate the most up-to-date information available about local and basin-wide water resources.

Nevada↗

Contaminants in tropical island streams and their biota

Environmental contamination is problematic for tropical islands due to their typically dense human populations and competing land and water uses. The Caribbean island of Puerto Rico (USA) has a long history of anthropogenic chemical use, and its human population density is among the highest globally, providing a model environment to study contaminant impacts on tropical island stream ecosystems. Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons, historic-use chlorinated pesticides, current-use pesticides, Polychlorinated Biphenyls (PCBs), and metals (mercury, cadmium, copper, lead, nickel, zinc, and selenium) were quantified in the habitat and biota of Puerto Rico streams and assessed in relation to land-use patterns and toxicological thresholds. Water, sediment, and native fish and shrimp species were sampled in 13 rivers spanning broad watershed land-use characteristics during 2009–2010. Contrary to expectations, freshwater stream ecosystems in Puerto Rico were not severely polluted, likely due to frequent flushing flows and reduced deposition associated with recurring flood events. Notable exceptions of contamination were nickel in sediment within three agricultural watersheds (range 123–336 ppm dry weight) and organic contaminants (PCBs, organochlorine pesticides) and mercury in urban landscapes. At an urban site, PCBs i n several fish species (Mountain Mullet Agonostomus monticola [range 0.019–0.030 ppm wet weight] and American Eel Anguilla rostrata [0.019–0.031 ppm wet weight]) may pose human health hazards, with concentrations exceeding the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) consumption limit for 1 meal/month. American Eel at the urban site also contained dieldrin (range < detection-0.024 ppm wet weight) that exceeded the EPA maximum allowable consumption limit. The Bigmouth Sleeper Gobiomorous dormitor , an important piscivorus sport fish, accumulated low levels of organic contaminants in edible muscle tissue (due to its low lipid c ontent) and may be most suitable for human consumption island-wide; only mercury at one site (an urban location) exceeded EPA's consumption limit of 3 meals/month for this species. These results comprise the first comprehensive island-wide contaminant assessment of Puerto Rico streams and biota and provide natural resource and public health agencies here and in similar tropical islands elsewhere with information needed to guide ecosystem and fisheries conservation and management and human health risk assessment.

Environmental Research↗

Study plan for the regional aquifer-system analysis of alluvial basins in south-central Arizona and adjacent states

The alluvial basins in the Southwestern United States constitute a major source of ground water and are relied upon extensively for agricultural, industrial, and public water supplies. Large-scale depletion of ground water is directly related to pumping that has occurred in the past few decades and is continuing today. The U.S. Geological Survey has started a 4-year study of the alluvial basins in south-central Arizona and parts of California, Nevada, and New Mexico. The study is designed to document and describe the hydrologic setting in the basins, the ground-water resources available, and the effects of historical development on the ground-water system. To aid in the study, mathematical models of selected basins will be developed for appraising the local and regional flow systems. Major tasks necessary to accomplish the study objectives include accumulating existing data on ground-water quantity and quality, entering the data into a computer file, identifying data deficiencies, and developing a program to remedy the deficiencies by collection of additional data. The approach to the study will be to develop and calibrate models of selected basins for which sufficient data exist and then to develop interpretation-transfer techniques whereby general predevelopment and postdevelopment conceptual models of the hydrologic system in other basins may be synthesized. The results will be applied to selected basins for testing, calibration, and modification. The end result of the project will be a better definition of the hydrologic parameters and a better understanding of the workings of the hydrologic system in the alluvial basins. The results will include models that can be used to study the effects of management alternatives and water-resources development on the hydrologic system.

Arizona↗

Estimating the probability of elevated nitrate (NO2+NO3-N) concentrations in ground water in the Columbia Basin Ground Water Management Area, Washington

Logistic regression was used to relate anthropogenic (man-made) and natural factors to the occurrence of elevated concentrations of nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen in ground water in the Columbia Basin Ground Water Management Area, eastern Washington. Variables that were analyzed included well depth, depth of well casing, ground-water recharge rates, presence of canals, fertilizer application amounts, soils, surficial geology, and land-use types. The variables that best explain the occurrence of nitrate concentrations above 3 milligrams per liter in wells were the amount of fertilizer applied annually within a 2-kilometer radius of a well and the depth of the well casing; the variables that best explain the occurrence of nitrate above 10 milligrams per liter included the amount of fertilizer applied annually within a 3-kilometer radius of a well, the depth of the well casing, and the mean soil hydrologic group, which is a measure of soil infiltration rate. Based on the relations between these variables and elevated nitrate concentrations, models were developed using logistic regression that predict the probability that ground water will exceed a nitrate concentration of either 3 milligrams per liter or 10 milligrams per liter. Maps were produced that illustrate the predicted probability that ground-water nitrate concentrations will exceed 3 milligrams per liter or 10 milligrams per liter for wells cased to 78 feet below land surface (median casing depth) and the predicted depth to which wells would need to be cased in order to have an 80-percent probability of drawing water with a nitrate concentration below either 3 milligrams per liter or 10 milligrams per liter. Maps showing the predicted probability for the occurrence of elevated nitrate concentrations indicate that the irrigated agricultural regions are most at risk. The predicted depths to which wells need to be cased in order to have an 80-percent chance of obtaining low nitrate ground water exceed 600 feet in the irrigated agricultural regions, whereas wells in dryland agricultural areas generally need a casing in excess of 400 feet. The predicted depth to which wells need to be cased to have at least an 80-percent chance to draw water with a nitrate concentration less than 10 milligrams per liter generally did not exceed 800 feet, with a 200-foot casing depth typical of the majority of the area.

Washington↗

The geomorphic legacy of water and erosion control structures in a semiarid rangeland watershed

Control over water supply and distribution is critical for agriculture in drylands where manipulating surface runoff often serves the dual purpose of erosion control. However, little is known of the geomorphic impacts and legacy effects of rangeland water manipulation infrastructure, especially if not maintained. This study investigated the geomorphic impacts of structures such as earthen berms, water control gates, and stock tanks, in a semiarid rangeland in the southwestern USA that is responding to both regional channel incision that was initiated over a century ago, and a more recent land use change that involved cattle removal and abandonment of structures. The functional condition of remnant structures was inventoried, mapped, and assessed using aerial imagery and lidar data. Headcut initiation, scour, and channel incision associated with compromised lateral channel berms, concrete water control structures, floodplain water spreader berms, and stock tanks were identified as threats to floodplains and associated habitat. Almost half of 27 identified lateral channel berms (48%) have been breached and 15% have experienced lateral scour; 18% of 218 shorter water spreader berms have been breached and 17% have experienced lateral scour. A relatively small number of 117 stock tanks (6%) are identified as structurally compromised based on analysis of aerial imagery, although many currently do not provide consistent water supplies. In some cases, the onset of localized disturbance is recent enough that opportunities for mitigation can be identified to alter the potentially damaging erosion trajectories that are ultimately driven by regional geomorphic instability. Understanding the effects of prior land use and remnant structures on channel and floodplain morphologic condition is critical because both current land management and future land use options are constrained by inherited land use legacy effects.

Arizona↗

Predicting the likelihood of altered streamflows at ungauged rivers across the conterminous United States

An approach is presented in this study to aid water-resource managers in characterizing streamflow alteration at ungauged rivers. Such approaches can be used to take advantage of the substantial amounts of biological data collected at ungauged rivers to evaluate the potential ecological consequences of altered streamflows. National-scale random forest statistical models are developed to predict the likelihood that ungauged rivers have altered streamflows (relative to expected natural condition) for five hydrologic metrics (HMs) representing different aspects of the streamflow regime. The models use human disturbance variables, such as number of dams and road density, to predict the likelihood of streamflow alteration. For each HM, separate models are derived to predict the likelihood that the observed metric is greater than (‘inflated’) or less than (‘diminished’) natural conditions. The utility of these models is demonstrated by applying them to all river segments in the South Platte River in Colorado, USA, and for all 10-digit hydrologic units in the conterminous United States. In general, the models successfully predicted the likelihood of alteration to the five HMs at the national scale as well as in the South Platte River basin. However, the models predicting the likelihood of diminished HMs consistently outperformed models predicting inflated HMs, possibly because of fewer sites across the conterminous United States where HMs are inflated. The results of these analyses suggest that the primary predictors of altered streamflow regimes across the Nation are (i) the residence time of annual runoff held in storage in reservoirs, (ii) the degree of urbanization measured by road density and (iii) the extent of agricultural land cover in the river basin.

River Research and Applications↗

National Park Service Vegetation Mapping Inventory Program: Appalachian National Scenic Trail vegetation mapping project

The National Park Service (NPS) Vegetation Mapping Inventory (VMI) Program classifies, describes, and maps existing vegetation of national park units for the NPS Natural Resource Inventory and Monitoring (I&M) Program. The NPS VMI Program is managed by the NPS I&M Division and provides baseline vegetation information to the NPS Natural Resource I&M Program. The U.S. Geological Survey Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, NatureServe, NPS Northeast Temperate Network, and NPS Appalachian National Scenic Trail (APPA) have completed vegetation classification and mapping of APPA for the NPS VMI Program. Mappers, ecologists, and botanists collaborated to affirm vegetation types within the U.S. National Vegetation Classification (USNVC) of APPA and to determine how best to map the vegetation types by using aerial imagery. Analyses of data from 1,618 vegetation plots were used to describe USNVC associations of APPA. Data from 289 verification sites were collected to test the field key to vegetation associations and the application of vegetation associations to a sample set of map polygons. Data from 269 validation sites were collected to assess vegetation mapping prior to submitting the vegetation map for accuracy assessment (AA). Data from 3,265 AA sites were collected, of which 3,204 were used to test accuracy of the vegetation map layer. The collective of these datasets affirmed 280 USNVC associations for the APPA vegetation mapping project. To map the vegetation and land cover of APPA, 169 map classes were developed. The 169 map classes consist of 150 that represent natural (including ruderal) vegetation types in the USNVC, 11 that represent cultural (agricultural and developed) vegetation types in the USNVC, 5 that represent natural landscapes with catastrophic disturbance or some other modification to natural vegetation preventing accurate classification in the USNVC, and 3 that represent nonvegetated water (non-USNVC). Features were interpreted from viewing 4-band digital aerial imagery using digital onscreen three-dimensional stereoscopic workflow systems in geographic information systems (GIS). (Digital aerial imagery was collected each fall during 2009–11 to capture leaf-phenology change of hardwood trees across the latitudinal range of APPA.) The interpreted data were digitally and spatially referenced, thus making the spatial-database layers usable in GIS. Polygon units were mapped to either a 0.5-hectare (ha) or 0.25-ha minimum mapping unit, depending on vegetation type or scenario; however, polygon units were mapped to 0.1 ha for alpine vegetation. A geodatabase containing various feature-class layers and tables provide locations and support data to USNVC vegetation types (vegetation map layer), vegetation plots, verification sites, validation sites, AA sites, project boundary extent and zones, and aerial image centers and flight lines. The feature-class layer and related tables of the vegetation map layer provide 30,395 polygons of detailed attribute data covering 110,919.7 ha, with an average polygon size of 3.6 ha; the vegetation map coincides closely with the administrative boundary for APPA. Summary reports generated from the vegetation map layer of the map classes representing USNVC natural (including ruderal) vegetation types apply to 28,242 polygons (92.9% of polygons) and cover 106,413.0 ha (95.9%) of the map extent for APPA. The map layer indicates APPA to be 92.4% forest and woodland (102,480.8 ha), 1.7% shrubland (1866.3 ha), and 1.8% herbaceous cover (2,065.9 ha). Map classes representing park-special vegetation (undefined in the USNVC) apply to 58 polygons (0.2% of polygons) and cover 404.3 ha (0.4%) of the map extent. Map classes representing USNVC cultural types apply to 1,777 polygons (5.8% of polygons) and cover 2,516.3 ha (2.3%) of the map extent. Map classes representing nonvegetated water (non-USNVC) apply to 332 polygons (1.1% of polygons) and cover 1,586.2 ha (1.4%) of the map extent.

Appalachian National Scenic Trail↗

The distribution of phosphorus in Popes Creek, VA, and in the Pocomoke River, MD: Two watersheds with different land management practices in the Chesapeake Bay Basin

This paper compares phosphorus (P) concentrations in sediments from two watersheds, one with, and one without, intensive animal agriculture. The watersheds are in the coastal plain of the Chesapeake Bay and have similar physiographic characteristics. Agriculture in the Pocomoke River, MD, watershed supplied 2.7 percent of all broiler chickens produced in the USA in 1997. Poultry litter is an abundant, local source of manure for crops. Broiler chickens are not produced in the Popes Creek, VA, watershed and poultry manure is, therefore, not a major source of fertilizer. The largest concentrations of P in sediment samples are found in floodplain and main-stem bottom sediment in both watersheds. Concentrations of total P and P extracted with 1N HCl are significantly larger in main-stem bottom sediments from the Pocomoke River than in main-stem bottom sediments from Popes Creek. Larger concentrations of P are associated with what are potentially redox sensitive iron oxyhydroxides in sediment samples from the Pocomoke River watershed than are associated with what are potentially redox sensitive iron oxyhydroxides in sediment samples from the Popes Creek watershed. Data for P and iron (Fe) concentrations in sediments from the Popes Creek watershed provide a numerical framework (baseline) with which to compare P and Fe concentrations in sediment from the Pocomoke River watershed. ?? Springer 2005.

Water, Air, & Soil Pollution↗

Simulating selenium and nitrogen fate and transport in coupled stream-aquifer systems of irrigated regions

Elevated levels of selenium (Se) in aqueous environments can harm aquatic life and endanger livestock and human health. Although Se occurs naturally in the rocks and soils of many alluvial aquifers, mining and agricultural activities can increase its rate of mobilization and transport to surface waters. Attention is given here to regions where nonpoint source return flows from irrigated lands carry pollutant loads to aquifers and streams, contributing to concentrations that violate regulatory and performance standards. Of particular concern is the heightened level and mobilization of Se influenced by nitrate (NO 3 ), a harmful pollutant in its own right. We present a numerical model that simulates the reactive transport of Se and nitrogen (N) species in a coupled groundwater-surface water system. Building upon a conceptual model that incorporates the major processes affecting Se and NO 3 transport in an irrigated watershed, the model links the finite-difference models MODFLOW, UZF-RT3D, and OTIS, to simulate flow and reactive transport of multiple chemical species in both the aquifer and a stream network, with mass exchange between the two. The capability of the new model is showcased by calibration, testing, and application to a 500 km 2 region in Colorado’s Lower Arkansas River Valley using a rich data set gathered over a 10-yr period. Simulation of spatial and temporal distributions of Se concentration reveals conditions that exceed standards in groundwater for approximately 20% of the area. For the Arkansas River, standards are exceeded by 290%–450%. Simulation indicates that river concentrations of NO 3 alone are near the current interim standard for the total of all dissolved N species. These results indicate the need for future use of the developed model to investigate the prospects for land and water best management practices to decrease pollutant levels.

Colorado↗

Land-Cover Change in the East Central Texas Plains, 1973-2000

Project Background: The Geographic Analysis and Monitoring (GAM) Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Land Cover Trends project is focused on understanding the rates, trends, causes, and consequences of contemporary U.S. land-use and land-cover change. The objectives of the study are to: (1) develop a comprehensive methodology for using sampling and change analysis techniques and Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS) and Thematic Mapper (TM) data for measuring regional land-cover change across the United States, (2) characterize the types, rates and temporal variability of change for a 30-year period, (3) document regional driving forces and consequences of change, and (4) prepare a national synthesis of land-cover change (Loveland and others, 1999). Using the 1999 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Level III ecoregions derived from Omernik (1987) as the geographic framework, geospatial data collected between 1973 and 2000 were processed and analyzed to characterize ecosystem responses to land-use changes. The 27-year study period was divided into five temporal periods: 1973-1980, 1980-1986, 1986-1992, 1992-2000, and 1973-2000. General land-cover classes such as water, developed, grassland/shrubland, and agriculture for these periods were interpreted from Landsat MSS, TM, and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus imagery to categorize land-cover change and evaluate using a modified Anderson Land-Use Land-Cover Classification System for image interpretation. The interpretation of these land-cover classes complement the program objective of looking at land-use change with cover serving as a surrogate for land use. The land-cover change rates are estimated using a stratified, random sampling of 10-kilometer (km) by 10-km blocks allocated within each ecoregion. For each sample block, satellite images are used to interpret land-cover change for the five time periods previously mentioned. Additionally, historical aerial photographs from similar timeframes and other ancillary data such as census statistics and published literature are used. The sample block data are then incorporated into statistical analyses to generate an overall change matrix for the ecoregion. For example, the scalar statistics can show the spatial extent of change per cover type with time, as well as the land-cover transformations from one land-cover type to another type occurring with time. Field data of the sample blocks include direct measurements of land cover, particularly ground-survey data collected for training and validation of image classifications (Loveland and others, 2002). The field experience allows for additional observations of the character and condition of the landscape, assistance in sample block interpretation, ground truthing of Landsat imagery, and helps determine the driving forces of change identified in an ecoregion. Management and maintenance of field data, beyond initial use for training and validation of image classifications, is important as improved methods for image classification are developed, and as present-day data become part of the historical legacy for which studies of land-cover change in the future will depend (Loveland and others, 2002). The results illustrate that there is no single profile of land-cover change; instead, there is significant geographic variability that results from land uses within ecoregions continuously adapting to the resource potential created by various environmental, technological, and socioeconomic factors.

Open-File Report↗

Grand challenges of hydrologic modeling for food-energy-water nexus security in high mountain Asia

Climate-influenced changes in hydrology affect water-food-energy security that may impact up to two billion people downstream of the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region. Changes in water supply affect energy, industry, transportation, and ecosystems (agriculture, fisheries) and as a result, also affect the region's social, environmental, and economic fabrics. Sustaining the highly interconnected food-energy-water nexus (FEWN) will be a fundamental and increasing challenge under a changing climate regime. High variability in topography and distribution of glaciated and snow-covered areas in the HMA region, and scarcity of high resolution ( in-situ ) data make it difficult to model and project climate change impacts on individual watersheds. We lack basic understanding of the spatial and temporal variations in climate, surface impurities in snow and ice such as black carbon and dust that alter surface albedo, and glacier mass balance and dynamics. These knowledge gaps create challenges in predicting where and when the impact of changes in river flow will be the most significant economically and ecologically. In response to these challenges, the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) established the High Mountain Asia Team (HiMAT) in 2016 to conduct research to address knowledge gaps. This paper summarizes some of the advances HiMAT made over the past 5 years, highlights the scientific challenges in improving our understanding of the hydrology of the HMA region, and introduces an integrated assessment framework to assess the impacts of climate changes on the FEWN for the HMA region. The framework, developed under a NASA HMA project, links climate models, hydrology, hydropower, fish biology, and economic analysis. The framework could be applied to develop scientific understanding of spatio-temporal variability in water availability and the resultant downstream impacts on the FEWN to support water resource management under a changing climate regime.

Frontiers in Water↗