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USGS2024

Streamflow depletion caused by groundwater pumping: Fundamental research priorities for management-relevant science

Reductions in streamflow caused by groundwater pumping, known as “streamflow depletion,” link the hydrologic process of stream-aquifer interactions to human modifications of the water cycle. Isolating the impacts of groundwater pumping on streamflow is challenging because other climate and human activities concurrently impact streamflow, making it difficult to separate individual drivers of hydrologic change. In addition, there can be lags between when pumping occurs and when streamflow is affected. However, accurate quantification of streamflow depletion is critical to integrated groundwater and surface water management decision making. Here, we highlight research priorities to help advance fundamental hydrologic science and better serve the decision-making process. Key priorities include (a) linking streamflow depletion to decision-relevant outcomes such as ecosystem function and water users to align with partner needs; (b) enhancing partner trust and applicability of streamflow depletion methods through benchmarking and coupled model development; and (c) improving links between streamflow depletion quantification and decision-making processes. Catalyzing research efforts around the common goal of enhancing our streamflow depletion decision-support capabilities will require disciplinary advances within the water science community and a commitment to transdisciplinary collaboration with diverse water-connected disciplines, professions, governments, organizations, and communities.

Water Resource Research↗
USGS2024

Assessing locations susceptible to shallow landslide initiation during prolonged intense rainfall in the Lares, Utuado, and Naranjito municipalities of Puerto Rico

Hurricane Maria induced about 70 000 landslides throughout Puerto Rico, USA, including thousands each in three municipalities situated in Puerto Rico's rugged Cordillera Central range. By combining a nonlinear soil-depth model, presumed wettest-case pore pressures, and quasi-three-dimensional (3D) slope-stability analysis, we developed a landslide susceptibility map that has very good performance and continuous susceptibility zones having smooth, buffered boundaries. Our landslide susceptibility map enables assessment of potential ground-failure locations and their use as landslide sources in a companion assessment of inundation and debris-flow runout. The quasi-3D factor of safety, F 3 , showed strong inverse correlation to landslide density (high density at low F 3 ). Area under the curve (AUC) of true positive rate (TPR) versus false positive rate (FPR) indicated success of F 3 in identifying head-scarp points (AUC = 0.84) and source-area polygons (0.85 ≤ AUC ≤ 0.88). The susceptibility zones enclose specific percentages of observed landslides. Thus, zone boundaries use successive F 3 levels for increasing TPR of landslide head-scarp points, with zones bounded by F 3 at TPR = 0.75, very high; F 3 at TPR = 0.90, high; and the remainder moderate to low. The very high susceptibility zone, with 118 landslides km −2 , covered 23 % of the three municipalities. The high zone (51 landslides km −2 ) covered another 10 %.

Puerto Rice↗
USGS2024

Assessment and characterization of ephemeral stream channel stability and mechanisms affecting erosion in Grand Valley, western Colorado, 2018–21

The Grand Valley in western Colorado is in the semiarid Southwest United States. The north side of the Grand Valley has many ungaged ephemeral streams, which are of particular interest because (1) the underlying bedrock geology, Late Cretaceous Mancos Shale, is a sedimentary rock deposit identified as a major salinity contributor to the Colorado River and (2) despite infrequent streamflows of short duration, monsoon-derived floods in these ephemeral streams can carry substantial amounts of sediment downstream, affecting upstream and downstream banks and channel cross sections. The study area is of interest, because salinity, or the total dissolved solids concentration, in the Colorado River causes an estimated $300 million to $400 million per year in economic damages in the United States, and it is estimated 62 percent of the Upper Colorado River Basin’s total dissolved solid loads originate from geologic sources. In an effort to minimize salt contributions to the Colorado River from public lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management, a comprehensive salinity control approach is typically used to reduce nonpoint sources of salinity through land management techniques and practices. In 2018, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Land Management, began an assessment of ephemeral streams located on the north side of the Grand Valley, western Colorado, to characterize stream channel stability and identify mechanisms affecting erosion. The U.S. Geological Survey developed a method for automatically extracting channel cross-section geometry from existing remotely sensed terrain models. Based on estimated flood stage and surrogate streamflows, hydraulic characteristics were calculated. Furthermore, the channel geometries and hydraulic characteristics were used to estimate channel stability using a statistical model. Cross-section stabilities were determined from a stream channel stability assessment for a subset of 1,406 visited (field observed) locations out of 13,415 cross sections, which were delineated from remotely sensed terrain models. The application of Manning’s resistance equation in combination with multiple logistic regression models demonstrated channel stability can be estimated with a 0.845 goodness of fit for a validation dataset when using a combination of drainage area, width-to-depth ratio, sinuosity, and shear stress as the explanatory variables. Stream channel stability was extrapolated for 13,415 unvisited (not field observed) cross sections using the multiple logistic regression model and defined explanatory variables. Mapping of the ephemeral streams and their associated stabilities may be used by the Bureau of Land Management to prioritize areas for remediation or changes in management strategies to reduce sediment and salinity loading to the Colorado River. The study found channel stability within the ephemeral streams to be spatially variable, longitudinally discontinuous, and dictated by changes in channel bed slope. The stable ephemeral streams were relatively wide and shallow and often had smaller drainage areas with less potential for producing shear stresses capable of overcoming channel adhesion. A change in channel bed slope can provide the means necessary to generate shear stresses appropriate to initiate erosion and a subsequent stability transition to incising channels. Channel widening happens when either or both banks of an incising channel reach a critical height for mass wasting, or when channel curvature causes higher sidewall stress. Regardless, widening channels can promote increases in sinuosity and subsequently reduce steep channel bed slopes. Consequently, stable and widening channels can have comparable bed slopes, making channel bed slope a poor explanatory variable to predict channel stability overall, despite its function to initiate channel instability. The results were based on a surrogate 0.10 annual exceedance probability (AEP; return period equal to the 10-year flood) interval streamflow, although it was recognized fluctuations in streamflow would also affect channel stability. Past and current changes within the study area affect streamflow; therefore, mechanisms affecting erosion include land use disturbances, soil compaction, loss of vegetation cover, drought, less frequent and more extreme precipitation, and fires—which all intensify the potential runoff and erosion within the study area.

Colorado↗
USGS2024

Seismic tomography 2023

Seismic tomography is the most abundant source of information about the internal structure of the Earth at scales ranging from a few meters to thousands of kilometers. It constrains the properties of active volcanoes, earthquake fault zones, deep reservoirs and storage sites, glaciers and ice sheets, or the entire globe. It contributes to outstanding societal problems related to natural hazards, resource exploration, underground storage, and many more. The recent advances in seismic tomography are being translated to nondestructive testing, medical ultrasound, and helioseismology. Nearly 50 yr after its first successful applications, this article offers a snapshot of modern seismic tomography. Focused on major challenges and particularly promising research directions, it is intended to guide both Earth science professionals and early‐career scientists. The individual contributions by the coauthors provide diverse perspectives on topics that may at first seem disconnected but are closely tied together by a few coherent threads: multiparameter inversion for properties related to dynamic processes, data quality, and geographic coverage, uncertainty quantification that is useful for geologic interpretation, new formulations of tomographic inverse problems that address concrete geologic questions more directly, and the presentation and quantitative comparison of tomographic models. It remains to be seen which of these problems will be considered solved, solved to some extent, or practically unsolvable over the next decade.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2024

Thick- and thin-skinned contractional styles and the tectonic evolution of the northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Colorado, USA

The Sangre de Cristo Mountains of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico, USA, contain an unusual combination of thick- and thin-skinned contractional structures involving both basement and cover rocks in the Laramide Rocky Mountain foreland. These structures are truncated by down-faulted extensional basins to the east and west. Together with synorogenic sediments, these structures preserve a record of the rise of the Ancestral Rocky Mountains, the Laramide orogeny, and Rio Grande rifting. Laramide structures within the mountains provide clues to processes that link the three events and to necessary conditions for thin-skinned and thick-skinned contractional structures to form together in continental interiors. To examine the full variety of structural styles, a portion of the northern Sangre de Cristo fold- and-thrust belt in Colorado was described and interpreted using geologic maps and structural cross-sections. Stratigraphic relations of the Ancestral Rocky Mountain highlands and basin fill were reconstructed from existing maps. These relations allow identification of faults inherited from the Ancestral Rocky Mountains, differentiation of thrust sheets, and in some cases, estimation of the magnitude of displacement. To examine relations between Laramide thrusts and Rio Grande rifting, kinematic data were collected from a thrust fault adjacent to rift faults. Three thrust fault styles were recognized: thin-skinned basement, thin-skinned cover rocks, and thick-skinned basement. Thin-skinned thrusts arising from a hinterland beneath the present San Luis Valley carried sheets of Proterozoic basement rocks northeast over a Laramide foreland. These basement thrusts are interpreted to be faults of the Ancestral Rocky Mountains that reactivated during the Laramide orogeny. The Laramide foreland consists of thin-skinned thrusts and folds in sedimentary cover rocks as young as 49 Ma. Both thin-skinned thrusts in basement and cover rocks are bounded by thick-skinned basement thrusts that moved intermittently throughout the Laramide orogeny. We infer that thin-skinned thrusts form in continental interiors where deformation is focused in weak strata of thick basin fill and in fluid-reaction weakened preexisting faults in basement rocks. Both conditions are met in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Basement thrusts adjacent to the San Luis Valley contain evidence of plastic contractional microstructures overprinted by extensional microstructures that may record the transition from Laramide contraction to Rio Grande extension of the crust.

Colorado↗
USGS2024

Bathymetric and velocimetric surveys at highway bridges crossing the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers on the periphery of Missouri, June 13–22, 2022

Bathymetric and velocimetric data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Transportation, near seven bridges at six highway crossings of the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers on the periphery of Missouri from June 13–22, 2022. A multibeam echosounder mapping system was used to obtain channel-bed elevations for river reaches about 1,640 feet longitudinally and generally extending laterally across the active channel from bank to bank during minor flood-flow conditions. These surveys provided channel geometry and hydraulic conditions at the time of the surveys and provided characteristics of scour holes that may be useful in developing or verifying predictive guidelines or equations for computing potential scour depth. These data also may be useful to the Missouri Department of Transportation as a minor flood-flow assessment of the bridges for stability and integrity issues with respect to bridge scour during floods. Bathymetric data were collected around every in-channel pier. Scour holes were present at most piers for which bathymetry could be obtained, except those on banks or surrounded by riprap. Occasionally, scour holes were minor and difficult to discern from nearby dunes and ripples. All bridge sites in this study were surveyed and documented in previous studies. Although partial exposure of substructural support elements was observed at several piers, at most sites the exposure most likely is minimal compared to the overall substructure that remains buried in bed material at these piers. The notable exceptions are piers 12 and 13 at structure L0135 on State Highway 51 at Chester, Illinois, where the bedrock material was fully exposed around the piers. The average difference between the bathymetric surfaces between 2022 and 2018 varied from 0.41 foot higher to 1.86 feet lower. Between 2022 and 2014, the average difference between the bathymetric surfaces varied from 1.02 feet higher to 4.69 feet lower. Only the two sites on the Missouri River and the Caruthersville site were surveyed in 2011; for those sites, the average difference between the bathymetric surfaces varied from 5.83 feet higher to 1.34 feet lower. The most substantial overall net gain of sediment in a reach was between 2011 and 2022 at structure A1700 near Caruthersville, Mo. (site 38). This result was expected because structure A1700 is downstream from the confluences of the Missouri and Ohio Rivers, and therefore subject to the largest streamflows, the largest streamflow fluctuations, and the most substantial sediment flux, as has historically been observed at this site. The presence of riprap blankets, pier size and nose shape, and alignment to flow had a substantial effect on the size of the scour hole observed for a given pier. Piers that were surrounded by riprap blankets had scour holes that were substantially smaller (to nonexistent) compared to piers at which no rock or riprap were present. New riprap blankets were surveyed at pier 3 of structure L0098 at Brownville, Nebraska, and at piers 15–18 of structure A1700 near Caruthersville, Mo., that effectively mitigated the scour holes historically observed at these piers. Narrow piers having round or sharp noses that were aligned with flow often had scour holes that were difficult to discern from nearby bed features, whereas piers having wide or blunt noses resulted in larger, deeper scour holes. Several of the structures had piers that were skewed to primary approach flow. Scour holes near these piers consistently displayed greater depth on the side of the pier with impinging flow and deposition on the leeward side of the pier.

Missouri↗
USGS2024

Following the tug of the audience from complex to simplified hazards maps at Cascade Range volcanoes

Volcano-hazard maps are broadly recognized as important tools for forecasting and managing volcanic crises and for disseminating spatial information to authorities and people at risk. As scientists, we might presume that hazards maps can be developed at the time and with the methods of our discretion, yet the co-production of maps with stakeholder groups, who have programmatic needs of their own, can sway the timing, usability, and acceptance of map products. We examine two volcano hazard map-making efforts by staff at the U.S. Geological Survey. During the 1990s and early 2000s scientists developed a series of hazard assessments and maps with detailed zonations for volcanoes in Washington and Oregon. In 2009, the National Park Service expressed the need for simplified versions of the existing hazard maps for a high-profile visitor center exhibit. This request created an opportunity for scientists to rethink the objectives, scope, content, and map representations of hazards. The primary focus of this article is a discussion of processes used by scientists to distill the most critical information within the official parent maps into a series of simplified maps using criteria specified. We contextualize this project with information about development of the parent maps, public response to the simplified hazard maps, the value of user engagement in mapmaking, and with reference to the abundance of guidance available to the next generation of hazard-mapmakers. We argue that simplified versions of maps should be developed in tandem with any hazard maps that contain technical complexities, not as a replacement, but as a mechanism to broaden awareness of hazards. We found that when scientists endeavor to design vivid and easy-to-understand maps, people in many professions find uses for them within their organization’s information products, resulting in extensive distribution.

Washington↗
USGS2024

Detrital zircons and the magmatic history of Viti Levu, Fiji

We integrate the existing detrital zircon data from multiple modern river sediment samples on Viti Levu, Fiji, with the most current available geological and topographic mapping of the respective river drainage basins to compare detrital populations with potential bedrock sources. The temporal and spatial variations in zircon geochemistry supplement what is known from igneous rocks and confirm the petrological differences between plutonic and volcanic rocks from the Eocene to early Oligocene (Yavuna age, >30 Ma), middle Oligocene to middle Miocene (Wainimala age, 30–12.5 Ma), late Miocene (Colo age, 12.5–6.5 Ma) and latest Miocene (Namosi age, 6.5–5 Ma). The >30 Ma Yavuna-age zircons are restricted to areas that drain the previously mapped Yavuna Group. The 30–12.5 Ma zircons are found across central Viti Levu from west to east, and the 30–15 Ma zircons have distinctively low U/Yb and high Dy/Yb ratios. They are the best radiometric evidence of widespread early to middle Miocene arc magmatism in Fiji that was relatively U-poor. Peak deconvolution of the Colo age zircons from individual basins suggests the following ages for undated or poorly dated plutons from central Viti Levu. The large Mavuvu pluton is probably composed of multiple intrusions in the 12–10 Ma range, the Waiqa pluton is probably ca 10 Ma, and the Noikoro pluton is probably ca 9 Ma. There are zircons from unknown plutonic or volcanic sources between 8 and 7 Ma in western Viti Levu that have distinct Eu/Eu* ratios. We attribute the highest U/Yb ratios in some Colo age zircons to crustal anatexis. Namosi-age zircons are abundant in the Medrausucu Group and can be found scattered across Viti Levu.

Viti Levu↗
USGS2024

Ungulate migrations of the Western United States, volume 4

Broadly distributed across the Western United States, ungulates (hooved mammals) play an important role in ecosystem function by affecting vegetation communities and forming the prey base for large carnivores. Additionally, ungulates provide economic benefits to regional communities through tourism and hunting and hold cultural significance for many Tribal communities. Many ungulates migrate seasonally between distinct summer and winter ranges to take advantage of spatially and temporally variable food sources and avoid threats such as predators and deep snow. Increasingly, these migrations are threatened by the growing human footprint and associated subdivisions, energy development, and increased traffic volume. Efforts to study ungulate populations and conserve their migrations received support in recent years from the U.S. Department of the Interior Secretarial Order No. 3362, which provided Federal support for enhancing habitat quality for ungulates across the Western States. In response to Secretarial Order No. 3362, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) established the Corridor Mapping Team, a collaboration among USGS and participating State and Federal wildlife management agencies and numerous Tribal Nations. Together, the Corridor Mapping Team maps ungulate migrations throughout the Western United States in the USGS “Ungulate Migrations of the Western United States” report series. This report (volume 4) details migrations and seasonal ranges from 31 new herds throughout nine Western States. Additionally, this report includes updates to two herds published in previous reports. Including this report, the report series has provided the mapped migrations and seasonal ranges of 182 unique herds and has provided a map-based inventory of the documented ungulate migrations across the Western United States for biologists, managers, policy makers, and conservation practitioners. This report also discusses how the mapping efforts associated with the Corridor Mapping Team can be used to guide management and policy regarding renewable energy development and ungulate disease, specifically chronic wasting disease, in the Western United States.

Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada,↗
USGS2024

Classification of lakebed geologic substrate in autonomously collected benthic imagery using machine learning

Mapping benthic habitats with bathymetric, acoustic, and spectral data requires georeferenced ground-truth information about habitat types and characteristics. New technologies like autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) collect tens of thousands of images per mission making image-based ground truthing particularly attractive. Two types of machine learning (ML) models, random forest (RF) and deep neural network (DNN), were tested to determine whether ML models could serve as an accurate substitute for manual classification of AUV images for substrate type interpretation. RF models were trained to predict substrate class as a function of texture, edge, and intensity metrics (i.e., features) calculated for each image. Models were tested using a manually classified image dataset with 9-, 6-, and 2-class schemes based on the Coastal and Marine Ecological Classification Standard (CMECS). Results suggest that both RF and DNN models achieve comparable accuracies, with the 9-class models being least accurate (~73–78%) and the 2-class models being the most accurate (~95–96%). However, the DNN models were more efficient to train and apply because they did not require feature estimation before training or classification. Integrating ML models into benthic habitat mapping process can improve our ability to efficiently and accurately ground-truth large areas of benthic habitat using AUV or similar images.

Michigan, Wisconsin↗
USGS2024

Bathymetric and velocimetric surveys at highway bridges crossing the Missouri River between Kansas City and St. Louis, Missouri, May 19–26, 2021

Bathymetric and velocimetric data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Transportation, near nine bridges at eight highway crossings of the Missouri River between Kansas City and St. Louis, Missouri, from May 19 to 26, 2021. A multibeam echosounder mapping system was used to obtain channel-bed elevations for river reaches about 1,640 to 1,840 feet (ft) longitudinally and generally extending laterally across the active channel from bank to bank during low to moderate flood-flow conditions. These surveys provided channel geometry and hydraulic conditions at the time of the surveys and provided characteristics of scour holes that may be useful in developing or verifying predictive guidelines or equations for computing potential scour depth. These data also may be useful to the Missouri Department of Transportation as a low to moderate flood-flow assessment of the bridges for stability and integrity issues with respect to bridge scour during floods. Bathymetric data were collected around every in-channel pier. Scour holes were present at most piers for which bathymetry could be obtained, except those on banks or surrounded by riprap. Occasionally, scour holes were minor and difficult to discern from nearby dunes and ripples. All the bridge sites in this study were previously surveyed and documented in previous studies. Comparisons between bathymetric surfaces from the previous surveys and those of the current (2021) study do not indicate any consistent correlation between channel-bed elevations and streamflow conditions. The average difference between the bathymetric surfaces varied from 1.59 ft higher to 0.95 ft lower in 2021 than 2017, which corresponds to a gain of 100,200 cubic yards and a loss of 55,800 cubic yards, respectively. The average difference between the bathymetric surfaces varied from 2.74 ft higher to 3.05 ft lower in 2021 than 2013, which corresponds to a gain of 111,500 cubic yards and a loss of 169,200 cubic yards, respectively. The average difference between the bathymetric surfaces varied from 4.52 ft higher to 1.38 ft lower in 2021 than 2011, which corresponds to a gain of 221,100 cubic yards and a loss of 90,300 cubic yards, respectively. The most substantial overall net gain was 221,100 cubic yards between 2011 and 2021 at structures L0550 and A4497 at Jefferson City (site 20). The large net gain likely results from a combination of the mitigation of the scour holes near pier 4 of both bridges and the substantially lower flow in 2021 than in 2011. Alternatively, the most substantial overall net loss was 169,200 cubic yards between 2013 and 2021 at structure A6288 at Hermann (site 21), despite comparable streamflows. Pier size, nose shape, and skew to approach flow had a substantial effect on the size of the scour hole observed at a given pier. Larger and deeper scour holes were present at piers with wide or blunt noses caused by exposed footings or caissons. When a pier was skewed to primary approach flow, the scour hole was generally deeper and larger than at a similar pier without skew; furthermore, the shape of the scour hole near skewed piers in this study generally was longer and deeper on the side with impinging flow. At structure A6288 at Hermann (site 21), the scour hole near pier 5 was difficult to discern from nearby dunes and ripples, whereas the upstream edge of the footing was visible at pier 4, which likely contributes to the larger scour hole near that pier; the top of the footing may blunt the horseshoe vortex at pier 5, but the exposed front of the footing may exacerbate the vortex at pier 4.

Missouri↗
USGS2024

Assessing spatial variability of nutrients, phytoplankton, and related water-quality constituents in the California Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta at the landscape scale—2018 high resolution mapping surveys

Executive Summary This study examined the abundance and distribution of nutrients and phytoplankton in the tidal aquatic environments of the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta (Delta) and Suisun Bay, comprising three spatial surveys conducted in May, July, and October of 2018 that used continuous underway high frequency sampling and measurements onboard a high-speed boat to characterize spatial variation across the extent of the Delta. The method used involves simultaneously collecting information about the concentration and spatial distribution of all major nutrient forms with analogous information about the major classes of phytoplankton and associated water-quality conditions. The results showed substantial variation across space and time, providing an unprecedented snapshot of the dynamic environmental processes that shape the ways nutrients interact with and affect aquatic habitats in the Delta. The purposes of this study were to improve our understanding of how hydrodynamics, landscape features, and aquatic primary productivity interact to drive nutrient cycling and transport in the Delta and to provide insights into the underlying processes most directly responsible for the conditions at the time of this study, and thus into the range of conditions that may be expected following the wide array of prospective future changes to the Delta. One major anticipated change at the time of this study was the planned upgrade to the Sacramento Regional Wastewater Treatment Plant, but the study also informs our understanding of potential effects from other changes to the Delta, such as those caused by other nutrient-management actions, flow actions, large-scale wetland restoration, drought, flood, levee failure, and changes to water management. Nutrient loading is the primary driver of nutrient concentrations in the Delta, but several other major drivers interact to shape their distribution and effects: geomorphology, hydrodynamics, landscape features, and aquatic productivity. Hydrodynamics affect timescales of transport and dilution of nutrient loads in the Delta. During transit through the system, channel geometry, tidal mixing, and water exports affect hydrodynamics in diverse ways that influence water-residence and transport times, thereby markedly affecting the range of times during which natural internal cycling can alter nutrient concentrations and forms. Channel geometry and location shape tidal energy and river currents into these observed dynamics. Interactions with Delta aquatic landscapes such as herbaceous tidal marsh, submerged aquatic vegetation, and large expanses of intertidal or subtidal sediments (all highly productive landscapes) exert demand on available nutrient supplies but can also simultaneously transform and generate nutrients. Finally, while phytoplankton require nutrients to sustain production and thus are a potential nutrient sink, the amount and form of nutrients also can influence the occurrence of harmful algal blooms (HABs) that adversely affect aquatic organisms as well as affect the occurrence of beneficial algal blooms that result in production of algae that are favorable for imperiled Delta pelagic aquatic food webs. The surveys revealed a complex mosaic of spatial variation, with nutrient concentrations varying from near zero to well above concentrations considered eutrophic; nutrient concentrations were more often related to the extent of hydrologic transport and mixing than to specific geographic locations or to specific landscape features. Similarly, the surveys identified phytoplankton abundance ranging from near detection to the level of large phytoplankton blooms, with large variation in phytoplankton community composition. Although the study occurred during a period of low bloom activity, phytoplankton productivity appeared to be the strongest potential sink for inorganic nutrients in the Delta, indicating that it is a larger control on nutrient concentrations and distribution than previously understood. Cycling and transformation within the water column only appeared to substantially lower total nutrient concentrations at the longest estimated transport timescales. Contrary to expectations, we did not observe substantial nutrient depletion near landscape-scale features such as open-water habitats, submerged aquatic vegetation beds, extensive wetlands, or exposed sediments, indicating that these habitat types did not act as major sinks for nutrients in the Delta during these surveys. These results indicated that nutrient reduction efforts may have the greatest effect on pelagic phytoplankton productivity in the more productive reaches of the Delta and estuary, but these effects are unlikely to be magnified by changes to nutrient loss within the Delta over conceivable changes in flow conditions, Delta water management actions, or large-scale wetland restoration activities. Nevertheless, local processes were shown to cause substantial loss, and thus integrating of nutrient effects with other indicators of aquatic habitat conditions will help inform planning future actions at specific sites. Finally, we note that the primary contribution of this study was intended to be the survey data themselves. Aside from the results highlighted in this report, the surveys are a benchmark against which future environmental change may be evaluated, including changes to nutrient management or water exports, drought, large-scale wetland restoration, and climate change. Further, although we highlight some of the main findings from the surveys in this report, the necessarily limited scope precludes examination of many topics for which these surveys may be highly informative. To facilitate the utility of these data to stakeholders, managers, and researchers, we have released the data online (Bergamaschi and others, 2020) and created an online data exploration portal ( https:​//ca.water​.usgs.gov/​bay-​delta/​2018-​delta-​wide-​mapping-​surveys.html ) where users may query the surveys in a variety of ways to test hypotheses, examine relationships, assess spatial trends, and download data. The data exploration portal is intended to be an immersive experience that allows users to gain greater understanding of the complex interactions that shape Delta aquatic environments. This report is intended as a companion to the portal, allowing the reader to challenge and further explore the highlighted findings. This study was a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Delta Regional Monitoring Program, with additional funding provided from U.S. Geological Survey Cooperative Matching Funds Program.

California↗
USGS2024

Post-wildfire debris flows

Post-wildfire debris flows pose severe hazards to communities and infrastructure near and within recently burned mountainous terrain. Intense heat of wildfires changes the runoff characteristics of a watershed by combusting the vegetative canopy, litter, and duff, introducing ash into the soil and creating water repellant soils. Following wildfire, rainfall on bare ground is less able to infiltrate into the fire-altered soils and overland flow is less impeded by vegetation. Rainfall runoff in recently burned areas can erode hillslopes owing to the removal of soil binding organic matter near the soil surface by fire. In channels, loose, dry-ravel deposits composed of sand and gravel are readily entrained by concentrated runoff in channels. Entrainment of soil on hillslopes and in channels bulks up the sediment concentration of the rainfall runoff to generate debris flows capable of transporting boulders and large woody debris. Post-wildfire debris flows can be triggered by rainfall conditions that would typically produce little runoff during unburned conditions. The primary rainfall trigger for post-wildfire debris flows is high intensity rainfall during short duration convective rainstorms or periods of high rainfall intensity embedded within a long-duration frontal storm. Numerous observations of debris flows triggered by storms lasting less than an hour following periods of little to no rainfall indicate that antecedent rainfall is not a requirement for initiation of post-wildfire debris flows. Post-wildfire debris-flow hazard assessment entails estimating probability and magnitude of debris flows in the burned area, estimating debris-flow runout and intensity, and defining rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow initiation. In the United States, probability and magnitude is estimated using empirically derived models largely based on data collected in southern California. The models provide maps to identify watersheds and drainage paths where post-wildfire hazards are most pronounced. Rainfall intensity-duration thresholds can be incorporated into flood hazard forecasting tools. Currently, work is underway to identify how to best implement debris-flow runout models in burned areas with efficiency and accuracy. Post-wildfire debris flows have been a long-recognized process in the Transverse Ranges of southern California; however, climate change is driving more frequent wildfires to burn more mountainous terrain throughout the western United States and worldwide. As a result, post-wildfire debris flows are becoming a more common threat in areas where they were once infrequent. As the threat of post-wildfire debris flow expands into new areas, evaluating the hazard becomes challenging because the degree to which wildfire increases debris-flow susceptibility varies from region to region. This chapter summarizes the knowledge to date for evaluating post-wildfire debris-flow susceptibility and hazard assessment. We summarize the characteristics of wildfire burn severity, topography, underlying soil and geology, and rainfall conditions that contribute to making a watershed most likely to produce post-wildfire debris flows. Methods for hazard assessment in the United States and other countries are summarized. We highlight knowledge gaps for how post-wildfire debris-flow susceptibility varies throughout the western United States and worldwide and identify research needs to improve hazard assessment methods in different geographies.

Book chapter↗
USGS2024

Spatial distribution of API gravity and gas/oil ratios for petroleum accumulations in Upper Cretaceous strata of the San Miguel, Olmos, and Escondido Formations of the south Texas Maverick Basin—Implications for petroleum migration and charge history

The Maverick Basin of south Texas is currently undergoing active exploration and production of gas and oil from tight sandstone reservoirs. The most productive tight sandstones in the basin are in the Upper Cretaceous San Miguel, Olmos, and Escondido Formations. These units are second only to the Eagle Ford Shale in terms of cumulative production volumes. The structural history of the Maverick Basin, from rifting to subsidence to exhumation, has had a profound effect on the characteristics of these reservoirs and the petroleum resources contained therein. This U.S. Geological Survey review of the production history of these strata reflects a recent shift from conventional production to horizontal drilling (unconventional) that exploits low permeability reservoirs in previously overlooked areas of existing oil and gas fields in southern Texas, typically outside of established field boundaries. To investigate the physical properties of the Maverick Basin hydrocarbon accumulations, this case study compiled American Petroleum Institute (API) gravity measurements and calculated cumulative gas/oil ratios (GOR) for thousands of producing wells from the San Miguel, Olmos, and Escondido Formations. Maps were generated from the compiled well production data to show the spatial heterogeneity of API gravity and GOR values for the three formations within the Maverick Basin and immediately outside the basin to the northeast. Within the Maverick Basin, the spatial patterns of API gravity values indicate lighter oils downdip towards the southern basin edge. GOR values indicative of wet and dry gases within the basin are seen interspersed, with values that correspond to black and heavy oils. Differences in the spatial patterns of the petroleum properties within the Maverick Basin are interpreted as effects of Eocene basin inversion caused by Laramide orogenic deformation, and the resulting reservoir exhumation of basin strata. East of the Maverick Basin, spatial distributions of API gravity and GOR values show progressively heavier oils updip to the northwest, grading to dry gases downdip to the southeast, which correlates to the oil and gas windows of the underlying Eagle Ford Shale. Correlation of API gravity and GOR values from the San Miguel, Olmos, and Escondido Formations with thermal maturity data from the Eagle Ford Shale suggests that the Eagle Ford Shale is the petroleum source, and that petroleum migration was approximately vertical for areas to the east of the Maverick Basin. The discontinuity of API gravity and GOR properties within the Maverick Basin implies a complex petroleum charge history, possibly involving the remigration of petroleum and the addition of petroleum from other source intervals in Mexico, to the southwest. Depressurization of exhumed, overpressured reservoirs of the San Miguel, Olmos, and Escondido Formations can explain the intermittent occurrence of gas production throughout the southern Maverick Basin by exsolution of gas from formation brines and the resulting dry gas flushing of hydrocarbon-charged reservoirs. The introduction of dry gas through flushing can, in turn, explain why the patterns of API gravity and GOR values are so dissimilar in the Maverick Basin. This process has implications for possible future production of unconventional resources from undiscovered tight-gas reservoirs in strata of the San Miguel, Olmos, and Escondido Formations, and a different approach to petroleum exploration may be needed in the Maverick Basin relative to exploration techniques applied in other basins within the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Texas↗
USGS2024

Limited evidence of late Quaternary tectonic surface deformation in the eastern Tennessee seismic zone, USA

The ~300-km-long eastern Tennessee seismic zone (ETSZ), USA, is the second-most seismically active region east of the Rocky Mountains. Seismicity generally occurs below the Paleozoic fold-and-thrust belt within the Mesoproterozoic basement, at depths of 5–26 km, and earthquake magnitudes during the instrumental record have been moment magnitude ( M w )≤4.8. Evidence of surface deformation may not exist or be difficult to detect because of the vegetated and soil-mantled landscape, landslides, locally steep topography, anthropogenic landscape modification, or long, irregular recurrence intervals between surface-rupturing earthquakes. Despite the deep seismicity, analog models indicate that accumulation of strike-slip or oblique-slip displacement at depth could be expected to propagate upward through the Paleozoic section, producing a detectable surficial signal of distributed faulting. To identify potential surface deformation, we interrogated the landscape at different spatial scales. We evaluated morphotectonic and channel metrics, such as channel sinuosity and catchment-scale hypsometry. Additionally, we mapped possible fault-related topographic features on 1-m lidar. Finally, we integrated our observations with available bedrock and Quaternary surficial mapping and subsurface geophysical data. At a regional scale, most morphotectonic and channel metrics have a strong lithologic control. Within smaller regions of similar lithology, we observe changes in landscape metrics like channel sinuosity and catchment-scale hypsometry that spatially correlate with new lineaments identified in this study and previously mapped east–west Cenozoic faults. These faults have apparent left-lateral offsets, are optimally oriented to slip in the current stress field, and match kinematics from recent focal mechanisms, but do not clearly preserve evidence of late Pleistocene or Holocene tectonic surface deformation. Most newly mapped lineaments might be explained by either tectonic or non-tectonic origins, such as fluvial or karst processes. We also re-evaluated a previously described paleoseismic site and interpret that the exposure does not record evidence of late Pleistocene faulting but instead is explained by fluvial stratigraphy.

Tennessee↗
USGS2024

Integration of rupture directivity models for the US National Seismic Hazard Model

Several rupture directivity models (DMs) have been developed in recent years to describe the near-source spatial variations in ground motion amplitudes related to propagation of rupture along the fault. We recently organized an effort towards incorporating these directivity effects into the USGS National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), by first evaluating the community's work and potential methods to implement directivity adjustments into probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Guided by this evaluation and comparison among the considered DMs, we selected an approach that can be readily implemented into the USGS hazard software, that provides an azimuthally varying adjustment to the median ground motion and its aleatory variability. This method allows assessment of the impact on hazard levels and provides a platform to test the DM amplification predictions using a generalized coordinate system, necessary for consistent calculation of source-to-site distance terms for complex ruptures. We give examples of the directivity-related impact on hazard, progressing from a simple, hypothetical rupture, to more complex fault systems, composed of multiple rupture segments and sources. The directivity adjustments were constrained to strike-slip faulting, where DMs have good agreement. We find that rupture directivity adjustments using a simple median and aleatory adjustment approach can impact hazard both from a site perspective and on a regional scale, increasing shaking off the end of the fault trace up to 30--40\% and potentially reducing it for sites along strike. Statewide hazard maps of California show that the change in shaking along major faults can be a factor to consider for assessing long-period (>ls) near-source effects within the USGS NSHM going forward, reaching up to 10--20\%. Finally, we suggest consideration of minimum parameter ranges and baseline requirements as future DMs are developed to minimize single approach adaptations, to enable more consistent application within both ground motion and hazard studies.

Earthquake Spectra↗
USGS2024

Greater sage-grouse habitat of Nevada and northeastern California—Integrating space use, habitat selection, and survival indices to guide areas for habitat management

Executive Summary Greater sage-grouse populations ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter sage-grouse) are threatened by a suite of disturbances and anthropogenic factors that have contributed to a net loss of sagebrush-dominant shrub cover in recent decades. Declines in sage-grouse populations are largely linked to habitat loss across their range. A key component of conservation and land use planning efforts for sage-grouse involves the continued monitoring and modeling of habitat requirements and suitability across its range. The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is addressing the management of sage-grouse habitats on BLM-authorized public lands throughout the western United States through a land use planning amendment and associated environmental impact statement (86 FR 66331). More than 25 percent of the range-wide distribution of sage-grouse is within Nevada and northeastern California, and information on sage-grouse distribution and habitat requirements is important to guide appropriate management decisions. Therefore, the BLM has identified the need for updated spatially explicit information on sage-grouse habitat in Nevada and northeastern California to guide the land use planning amendment and associated management decisions. To address this need, researchers with the U.S. Geological Survey, in close cooperation with multiple State and Federal resource agency partners, including BLM, Nevada Department of Wildlife (NDOW) and California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW), sought to map sage-grouse distribution and produce example habitat designations in these states. Herein, we report results of our primary study objective, which was to map sage-grouse habitat and create example habitat management areas, based on more than a decade of location and survival data collected from marked sage-grouse across the study region coupled with lek count survey data managed by the NDOW and the CDFW. We expanded on previously developed methodology to incorporate information on habitat selection and survival during reproductive life stages and specific seasons with updated sage-grouse location and known fate datasets, while also including brood-rearing areas that are understood to be threatened and important for population persistence. We combined predictive habitat map surfaces for each life stage and season with updated information on current occupancy patterns to classify habitat based on its suitability and probability of occupancy. We carried out additional steps to delineate specific example habitat management areas, specifically (1) incorporated corridors connecting key nesting and brood-rearing habitat, (2) corrected outputs for pre-wildfire habitat conditions within areas burned in the last 16 years, and (3) masked out areas of anthropogenic development. Our methodological example of deriving habitat management areas was intended to help inform decisions by BLM and other land managers regarding conservation and management of sage-grouse. Associated data products in the form of habitat maps provide updated, detailed, and comprehensive information about the status of habitats and can be useful to partner agencies in their efforts to designate and rank habitats for this species of high conservation concern in Nevada and California, with full recognition that on-the-ground field data and local sources of information and expertise should be used in conjunction with inferences from these models.

California, Idaho, Nevada↗
USGS2024

Seabed maps showing topography, ruggedness, backscatter intensity, sediment mobility, and the distribution of geologic substrates in quadrangle 5 of the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary region offshore of Boston, Massachusetts

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Marine Sanctuary Program of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, has conducted seabed mapping and related research in the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary (SBNMS) region since 1993. The area being mapped using geophysical and geological data includes the SBNMS and the surrounding region, which totals approximately 3,700 square kilometers (km 2 ) and is subdivided into 18 quadrangles. The seabed is a glaciated terrain that is topographically and texturally diverse. Quadrangle 5, the subject of this scientific investigations map, has an area of 211 km 2 and has water depths that range from 23 meters (m) on the Stellwagen Bank crest to 105 m in the Stellwagen Basin. Seven map types, each at a scale of 1:25,000, depict seabed topography, ruggedness, backscatter intensity, distribution of geologic substrates, sediment mobility, distribution of fine- and coarse-grained sand, and substrate mud content. These maps show the distribution of geologic substrates on the crest and western flank of the south-central part of Stellwagen Bank and in Stellwagen Basin to the west. Interpretations of multibeam sonar bathymetric and seabed backscatter imagery, photographs, video imagery, and grain-size analyses were used to create the geology-based maps. Data from 729 stations were analyzed, including 620 sediment samples. The geologic substrate maps of quadrangle 5 show the distribution of 20 substrates that represent a wide range of textures, such as mobile and rippled sand, immobile sand, sand that partially veneers gravel, boulder ridges, and mud. Mapped substrates are characterized by sediment grain-size composition, surface morphology, substrate layering, the mobility or immobility of substrate surfaces, and water depth range. This scientific investigations map portrays the major geological elements (substrates, topographic features, and processes) of environments in quadrangle 5. It is intended to provide a foundation for research into present and past sediment transport processes in a complex terrain, provide insights into the ecological requirements of invertebrate and vertebrate species that utilize the various substrates, and to support seabed management in the region.

Massachusetts↗