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At least 1,315 records · Page 73Linked to original sources

Earthquake scenario selection for portfolio holders in CEUS: A case study with Oklahoma DOT

Portfolio managers of spatially distributed assets in the central and eastern United States (CEUS) and other low- to moderate seismic hazard regions require scenario-based seismic risk assessment for the purpose of emergency management and planning. Uncertainties regarding the long-term seismicity of the region, unknown faults, and limited historical records complicate the selection of an earthquake scenario. Through a case study with the Oklahoma Department of Transportation (ODOT) and their portfolio of bridges, we look at one such exercise, which consists of two scenario earthquakes: one scenario earthquake selected from the U.S. Geological Survey Building Seismic Safety Commission (BSSC) scenario catalog, a magnitude (M) 7.2 event on the Meers fault, and a second aftershock selected by the consequence-driven earthquake scenario selection (Co-DESS) method. The latter is driven by ODOT’s desired service actions to be included during the earthquake drill; in this case, we identify an earthquake that is likely to trigger inspections for bridges across multiple districts, thereby testing not only inspection protocols but also coordination efforts between district groups. We find that the Co-DESS selected event is smaller in magnitude and offers different geographical options than selection through conventional selection methods, while still meeting necessary consequences for an effective earthquake exercise.

Conference Paper↗

Map showing surficial and hydrologic features in the vicinity of New Madrid, Missouri

This is one in a series of five seismotectonic maps of the seismically active New Madrid area in southeast Missouri and adjacent parts of Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee (table 1). ). We cannot legibly show all the seismotectonic data on a single map, therefore each of the five maps in this series groups a different type of related information. Rhea and others (1994) summarized the background and purpose of the seismotectonic map folio. To aid in locating small features mentioned in the text and tables we have divided the map area into 16 tracts (fig. 1); some of the small features are identified by tract number. The focus of this map is earthquake effects in the New Madrid area. The first part of the discussion is a description of some superficial effects of three great earthquakes that struck the map area during the winter of 1811-12 (Nuttli, 1973). Next, we discuss other possible records of recent deformation that may have bearing on the assessment of seismic hazards. Finally, some features of uncertain origins are discussed; these have unknown bearing on hazard assessment. Some swampy or flooded areas, locally called sunklands, are discussed in two places because two of the sunklands formed or enlarged during the 1811-12 earthquakes, whereas the others are of uncertain origins.

Missouri↗

Triggered earthquakes and the 1811-1812 New Madrid, central United States, earthquake sequence

The 1811-1812 New Madrid, central United States, earthquake sequence included at least three events with magnitudes estimated at well above M 7.0. I discuss evidence that the sequence also produced at least three substantial triggered events well outside the New Madrid Seismic Zone, most likely in the vicinity of Cincinnati, Ohio. The largest of these events is estimated to have a magnitude in the low to mid M 5 range. Events of this size are large enough to cause damage, especially in regions with low levels of preparedness. Remotely triggered earthquakes have been observed in tectonically active regions in recent years, but not previously in stable continental regions. The results of this study suggest, however, that potentially damaging triggered earthquakes may be common following large mainshocks in stable continental regions. Thus, in areas of low seismic activity such as central/ eastern North America, the hazard associated with localized source zones might be more far reaching than previously recognized. The results also provide additional evidence that intraplate crust is critically stressed, such that small stress changes are especially effective at triggering earthquakes.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Catalog of Hawaiian earthquakes, 1823-1959

This catalog of more than 17,000 Hawaiian earthquakes (of magnitude greater than or equal to 5), principally located on the Island of Hawaii, from 1823 through the third quarter of 1959 is designed to expand our ability to evaluate seismic hazard in Hawaii, as well as our knowledge of Hawaiian seismic rhythms as they relate to eruption cycles at Kilauea and Mauna Loa volcanoes and to subcrustal earthquake patterns related to the tectonic evolution of the Hawaiian chain.

Professional Paper↗

Abstracts for the October 2012 meeting on volcanism in the American Southwest, Flagstaff, Arizona

Though volcanic eruptions are comparatively rare in the American Southwest, the States of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Utah host Holocene volcanic eruption deposits and are vulnerable to future volcanic activity. Compared with other parts of the western United States, comparatively little research has been focused on this area, and eruption probabilities are poorly constrained. Monitoring infrastructure consists of a variety of local seismic networks, and ”backbone“ geodetic networks with little integration. Emergency response planning for volcanic unrest has received little attention by either Federal or State agencies. On October 18–20, 2012, 90 people met at the U.S. Geological Survey campus in Flagstaff, Arizona, providing an opportunity for volcanologists, land managers, and emergency responders to meet, converse, and begin to plan protocols for any future activity. Geologists contributed data on recent findings of eruptive ages, eruption probabilities, and hazards extents (plume heights, ash dispersal). Geophysicists discussed evidence for magma intrusions from seismic, geodetic, and other geophysical techniques. Network operators publicized their recent work and the relevance of their equipment to volcanic regions. Land managers and emergency responders shared their experiences with emergency planning for earthquakes. The meeting was organized out of the recognition that little attention had been paid to planning for or mitigation of volcanic hazards in the American Southwest. Moreover, few geological meetings have hosted a session specifically devoted to this topic. This volume represents one official outcome of the meeting—a collection of abstracts related to talks and poster presentations shared during the first two days of the meeting. In addition, this report includes the meeting agenda as a record of the proceedings. One additional intended outcome will be greater discussion and coordination among emergency responders, geologists, geophysicists, and land managers regarding geologic hazards in the Southwest.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah↗

Understanding of urban hazards, fire, and tsunamis

Understanding of the causes and solutions of an urban area's (e.g., Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Oakland, Seattle, Portland, Anchorage, Salt Lake City, Memphis, St. Louis, Charleston, Boston, San Juan) vulnerability to earthquakes, fire, and tsunamis has increased significantly during the past 50 years, and during the current International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). Vulnerability is caused by flaws in planning, siting, design, construction, and use. It is fundamentally dependent upon the hazard, built, and policy environments of the urban area. Reduction of vulnerability is directly related to the decision-making process that calls for the adoption and enforcement of risk management programs (e.g., mitigation, preparedness, emergency response, and recovery measures) that are designed to make the urban area resilient to earthquakes, fires, and, as appropriate, tsunamis.

Conference Paper↗

Developing and implementing an International Macroseismic Scale (IMS) for earthquake engineering, earthquake science, and rapid damage assessment

Executive Summary Macroseismic observations and analysis connect our collective seismological past with the present and the present to the future by facilitating hazard estimates and communicating the effects of ground shaking to a wide variety of audiences across the ages. Invaluable ground shaking and building damage information is gained through standardized, systematic approaches for assigning intensities and, importantly, sharing and archiving those assignments in a reproducible form. The applications for these assignments are far reaching. Traditional macroseismic surveys provide vital constraints on critical aspects of earthquakes and their effects on society, whereas internet-based macroseismic datasets are extremely valuable for real-time earthquake situational awareness, and they contribute to later engineering loss and risk analyses. These important applications of macroseismic observations would be helped by revisiting traditional macroseismic surveys for modern environments, standardizing internet-based collection strategies, and ensuring compatibility between traditional and internet-based approaches of macroseismic data collection. Even with best practices, we have identified several limitations with modern macroseismic data collection approaches, particularly from the U.S. Geological Survey's perspective. First, whereas crowdsourced, internet-based intensities such as “Did You Feel It?” are robust and definitive for lower intensities, they are poorly defined above intensity VII, where damage observations may require expert knowledge of each building’s structural system. Second, in the United States, we use the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) Scale, which is consistent with—yet inferior to—the more recently developed European Macroseismic Scale (EMS–98; Grünthal and others, 1998). Similarly, New Zealand uses the New Zealand MMI Scale (Dowrick and others, 2008), which lacks detail on how to assign intensities above MMI VIII. The EMS–98 fundamentally advanced the science of macroseismic intensity assignment by requiring quantitative assessments at each location through consistent application on statistical ranges of well-defined damage grades to building-specific vulnerability classes. Lastly, the United States and New Zealand no longer have professionals dedicated to conducting traditional macroseismic field surveys, so a strategy is needed for allowing postearthquake building inspectors and insurance loss assessors to contribute to intensity assignments. The goals of our International Macroseismic Scale workshop were thus twofold. First, harmonize the MMI Scale with EMS–98 for the United States and New Zealand—which share several similar building types—by considering those structures and associated damage grades that are not well represented in the current EMS–98 building vulnerability class table. Second, begin to formalize the process of augmenting EMS–98 with new regional building classes and damage grades toward the development of a macroseismic scale that can be used globally, beyond the United States and New Zealand. Such an effort necessarily requires reviewing and expanding the original EMS–98 explanatory documents and consideration of any required revisions. We can build on the shoulders of giants in that a few of the original EMS–98 developers and experts participated in and were integral to our workshop. Their background and guidance were key in moving forward toward an international scale. We agreed that additional building vulnerability classes, damage grades, and written and pictorial descriptions are necessary and ideally accompanied by a detailed paper trail for other nations to follow. If we can improve the macroseismic assignment process in both nations, we can also aim to refine the process of collecting postearthquake impact data, a boon to many engineering and financial concerns. The benefits of a truly International Macroseismic Scale are considerable for both the engineering and seismology communities. A modern macroseismic scale requires more deliberate archival damage data collection, motivating more consistent and accessible postevent datasets that would have applications beyond the specific event. Applying field-collected building damage data toward macroseismic assignments would allow for increased coordination between engineering reconnaissance teams and local inspectors in collecting such data for official purposes. In addition, rapid and consistent intensity assignments globally would enable more accurate ShakeMaps—and thus improved earthquake engineering and geotechnical forensics, loss and risk estimates, and correlations between macroseismic intensity and ground motion parameters. A brief summary of the Powell Center IMS workshop was published by Wald and others (2023) in the magazine Eos. This Open-File Report describes the workshop, its discussions, and its outcomes in detail. In summarizing the workshop, we have added important background material and reflections for proper context.

Open-File Report↗

Creating a Global Building Inventory for Earthquake Loss Assessment and Risk Management

Earthquakes have claimed approximately 8 million lives over the last 2,000 years (Dunbar, Lockridge and others, 1992) and fatality rates are likely to continue to rise with increased population and urbanizations of global settlements especially in developing countries. More than 75% of earthquake-related human casualties are caused by the collapse of buildings or structures (Coburn and Spence, 2002). It is disheartening to note that large fractions of the world's population still reside in informal, poorly-constructed & non-engineered dwellings which have high susceptibility to collapse during earthquakes. Moreover, with increasing urbanization half of world's population now lives in urban areas (United Nations, 2001), and half of these urban centers are located in earthquake-prone regions (Bilham, 2004). The poor performance of most building stocks during earthquakes remains a primary societal concern. However, despite this dark history and bleaker future trends, there are no comprehensive global building inventories of sufficient quality and coverage to adequately address and characterize future earthquake losses. Such an inventory is vital both for earthquake loss mitigation and for earthquake disaster response purposes. While the latter purpose is the motivation of this work, we hope that the global building inventory database described herein will find widespread use for other mitigation efforts as well. For a real-time earthquake impact alert system, such as U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER), (Wald, Earle and others, 2006), we seek to rapidly evaluate potential casualties associated with earthquake ground shaking for any region of the world. The casualty estimation is based primarily on (1) rapid estimation of the ground shaking hazard, (2) aggregating the population exposure within different building types, and (3) estimating the casualties from the collapse of vulnerable buildings. Thus, the contribution of building stock, its relative vulnerability, and distribution are vital components for determining the extent of casualties during an earthquake. It is evident from large deadly historical earthquakes that the distribution of vulnerable structures and their occupancy level during an earthquake control the severity of human losses. For example, though the number of strong earthquakes in California is comparable to that of Iran, the total earthquake-related casualties in California during the last 100 years are dramatically lower than the casualties from several individual Iranian earthquakes. The relatively low casualties count in California is attributed mainly to the fact that more than 90 percent of the building stock in California is made of wood and is designed to withstand moderate to large earthquakes (Kircher, Seligson and others, 2006). In contrast, the 80 percent adobe and or non-engineered masonry building stock with poor lateral load resisting systems in Iran succumbs even for moderate levels of ground shaking. Consequently, the heavy death toll for the 2003 Bam, Iran earthquake, which claimed 31,828 lives (Ghafory-Ashtiany and Mousavi, 2005), is directly attributable to such poorly resistant construction, and future events will produce comparable losses unless practices change. Similarly, multistory, precast-concrete framed buildings caused heavy casualties in the 1988 Spitak, Armenia earthquake (Bertero, 1989); weaker masonry and reinforced-concrete framed construction designed for gravity loads with soft first stories dominated losses in the Bhuj, India earthquake of 2001 (Madabhushi and Haigh, 2005); and adobe and weak masonry dwellings in Peru controlled the death toll in the Peru earthquake of 2007 (Taucer, J. and others, 2007). Spence (2007) after conducting a brief survey of most lethal earthquakes since 1960 found that building collapses remains a major cause of earthquake mortality and unreinforced masonry buildings are one of the mos

Open-File Report↗

The Commerce geophysical lineament and its possible relation to Mesoproterozoic igneous complexes and large earthquakes in the central Illinois Basin

New inversions of existing magnetic and gravity data lead to insights on upper crustal structures in the central Illinois basin. The results of 2D and 3D inversion techniques suggest that the source of the Commerce geophysical lineament follows the southeast boundary of a dense and magnetic, northeast-trending igneous center, named the Vincennes igneous center. Thus the Commerce geophysical lineament, defining the 5- to 10-km-wide Commerce deformation zone, appears to have influenced the structural development of the Vincennes igneous center. Overlying this igneous center is the Centralia seismic-reflection sequence, expressed as highly coherent reflectors ( McBride and Kolata, 1999 ). We suggest that the buried Vincennes igneous center is the source of inferred volcanic units of the Centralia sequence and is related to a rifted margin or a Proterozoic plate boundary. A comparison of gravity and magnetic fields over the Vincennes igneous center and the St. Francois Mountains igneous center in southeastern Missouri suggests that the associated sources in these regions are similar in composition and perhaps origin. Such a conclusion, although speculative, suggests that ∼1.47 Ga-year-old volcanic fields of high-silica rocks, with more abundant mafic components at depth, characterize basement in the regions of the Vincennes igneous center and the St. Francois Mountains. Further, we conclude that the Commerce deformation zone evolved in the Mesoproterozoic (1.1 to 1.5 Ga) as a major cratonic rheological boundary and was the focus of episodic reactivation related to varying stress regimes throughout its history. Spatial relations of the Commerce deformation zone with large Pleistocene and Holocene earthquakes suggest that the zone represents a major rheological boundary intimately related to both surface and deep structures and to the seismic hazard of the Illinois basin region. Assuming recent right-lateral slip along the Commerce deformation zone, we propose that a jog or left step in the Vincennes area leads to thrusting or a restraining bend, where associated stress accumulations may have resulted in nearby large prehistoric earthquakes and may also be the nucleation sites of future large earthquakes.

Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky↗

Beat-the-wave evacuation mapping for tsunami hazards in Seaside, Oregon, USA

Previous pedestrian evacuation modeling for tsunamis has not considered variable wave arrival times or critical junctures (e.g., bridges), nor does it effectively communicate multiple evacuee travel speeds. We summarize an approach that identifies evacuation corridors, recognizes variable wave arrival times, and produces a map of minimum pedestrian travel speeds to reach safety, termed a “beat-the-wave” (BTW) evacuation analysis. We demonstrate the improved approach by evaluating difficulty of pedestrian evacuation of Seaside, Oregon, for a local tsunami generated by a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake. We establish evacuation paths by calculating the least cost distance (LCD) to safety for every grid cell in a tsunami-hazard zone using geospatial, anisotropic path distance algorithms. Minimum BTW speed to safety on LCD paths is calculated for every grid cell by dividing surface distance from that cell to safety by the tsunami arrival time at safety. We evaluated three scenarios of evacuation difficulty: (1) all bridges are intact with a 5-minute evacuation delay from the start of earthquake, (2) only retrofitted bridges are considered intact with a 5-minute delay, and (3) only retrofitted bridges are considered intact with a 10-minute delay. BTW maps also take into account critical evacuation points along complex shorelines (e.g., peninsulas, bridges over shore-parallel estuaries) where evacuees could be caught by tsunami waves. The BTW map is able to communicate multiple pedestrian travel speeds, which are typically visualized by multiple maps with current LCD-based mapping practices. Results demonstrate that evacuation of Seaside is problematic seaward of the shore-parallel waterways for those with any limitations on mobility. Tsunami vertical-evacuation refuges or additional pedestrian bridges may be effective ways of reducing loss of life seaward of these waterways.

Oregon↗

Tsunamis: stochastic models of occurrence and generation mechanisms

The devastating consequences of the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Japan tsunamis have led to increased research into many different aspects of the tsunami phenomenon. In this entry, we review research related to the observed complexity and uncertainty associated with tsunami generation, propagation, and occurrence described and analyzed using a variety of stochastic methods. In each case, seismogenic tsunamis are primarily considered. Stochastic models are developed from the physical theories that govern tsunami evolution combined with empirical models fitted to seismic and tsunami observations, as well as tsunami catalogs. These stochastic methods are key to providing probabilistic forecasts and hazard assessments for tsunamis. The stochastic methods described here are similar to those described for earthquakes (Vere-Jones 2013) and volcanoes (Bebbington 2013 ) in this encyclopedia.

Book chapter↗

Imperfect science: Uncertainty, diversity, and experts

Seismic safety issues related to nuclear reactors in the eastern United States pose special challenges to the Earth and engineering sciences, given the severe consequences that can attend even very infrequent earthquakes. To deal with low-probability, potentially damaging ground motions, two major probabilistic seismic hazard analyses were conducted in the 1980s for nuclear reactors in the eastern United States, that part of the country east of the Rocky Mountains. The first study was performed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) [ Bernreuter et al ., 1989] and was supported by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). The second was commissioned by the Seismicity Owners Group of the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) , [1989]. These studies generally agreed in terms of median hazard estimates, but mean hazard estimates at individual sites varied considerably, in several cases by 2 orders of magnitude or more.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗

Multiple sources for late-Holocene tsunamis at Discovery Bay, Washington State, USA

Nine muddy sand beds interrupt a 2500-yr-old sequence of peat deposits beneath a tidal marsh at the head of Discovery Bay on the south shore of the Strait of Juan de Fuca, Washington. An inferred tsunami origin for the sand beds is assessed by means of six criteria. Although all the sand beds contain marine diatoms and almost all the beds display internal stratification, the areal extent of the oldest beds is too limited to confirm their origin as tsunami deposits. The ages of four beds overlap with known late-Holocene tsunamis generated by plate-boundary earthquakes at the Cascadia subduction zone. Diatom assemblages in peat deposits bracketing these four beds do not indicate concurrent change in elevation at Discovery Bay. Diatoms in the peat bracketing a tsunami bed deposited about 1000 cal. yr BP indicate a few decimeters of submergence, suggesting deformation on a nearby upper-plate fault. Other beds may mark tsunamis caused by more distant upper-plate earthquakes or local submarine landslides triggered by earthquake shaking. Tsunamis from both subduction zone and upper-plate sources pose a significant hazard to shoreline areas in this region.

Holocene↗

A Viscoelastic earthquake simulator with application to the San Francisco Bay region

Earthquake simulation on synthetic fault networks carries great potential for characterizing the statistical patterns of earthquake occurrence. I present an earthquake simulator based on elastic dislocation theory. It accounts for the effects of interseismic tectonic loading, static stress steps at the time of earthquakes, and postearthquake stress readjustment through viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and mantle. Earthquake rupture initiation and termination are determined with a Coulomb failure stress criterion and the static cascade model. The simulator is applied to interacting multifault systems: one, a synthetic two-fault network, and the other, a fault network representative of the San Francisco Bay region. The faults are discretized both along strike and along dip and can accommodate both strike slip and dip slip. Stress and seismicity functions are evaluated over 30,000 yr trial time periods, resulting in a detailed statistical characterization of the fault systems. Seismicity functions such as the coefficient of variation and a- and b-values exhibit systematic patterns with respect to simple model parameters. This suggests that reliable estimation of the controlling parameters of an earthquake simulator is a prerequisite to the interpretation of its output in terms of seismic hazard.

California↗

Evidence of active Quaternary deformation on the Great Valley fault system near Winters, northern California

The Great Valley fault system defines the tectonic boundary between the Coast Ranges and the Central Valley in California, is active throughout the Quaternary, and has been the source of several significant ( M > 6) historic earthquakes, including the 1983 M 6.5 Coalinga earthquake and the 1892 Vacaville–Winters earthquake sequence. However, the locations and geometries of individual faults in the Great Valley fault system are poorly constrained, and fault slip rates and paleoearthquake chronology are largely unknown. Here, we report geomorphic and subsurface geophysical evidence of surface‐deforming displacement on a strand of the Great Valley fault system west of Winters, California. Detailed geomorphic mapping and a high‐resolution seismic reflection and tomography survey along an ∼800 m profile across the Bigelow Hills document a fault, which we call the West Winters strand of the Great Valley fault system, with apparent east side‐up displacement of surficial geologic units. These data together suggest that the West Winters strand is active in the latest Quaternary. Together with local reports from the time, this raises the possibility that the West Winters strand may have ruptured and deformed the surface during the 1892 M 6 Vacaville–Winters earthquake sequence. Future earthquakes with vertical displacement on this and Great Valley fault system structures could have significant hazard implications, given the region’s low relief and the presence of major water conveyance infrastructure.

California↗

OxCal: Versatile tool for developing paleoearthquake chronologies: A primer

Ages of paleoearthquakes (events), i.e., evidence of earthquakes inferred from the geologic record, provide a critical constraint on estimation of the seismic hazard posed by an active fault. The radiocarbon calibration program OxCal (4.0.3 and above; Bronk Ramsey 2007, 2001) provides paleoseismologists with a straightforward but rigorous means of estimating these event ages and their uncertainties. Although initially developed for the chronologic modeling of archaeological data from diverse sources (e.g., radiocarbon, historical knowledge, etc.), OxCal is readily adaptable to other disciplines requiring chronological modeling, such as paleoseismology (Fumal et al. 2002; Lindvall et al. 2002; Kelson et al. 2006; Noriega et al. 2006; Lienkaemper and Williams 2007; Yen et al. 2008).

Seismological Research Letters↗

Asteroid impacts and cascading hazards

The initial effects from an asteroid impact are generally well characterized and include thermal radiation and blast waves. If the impactor is sufficiently large, either an earthquake or tsunami can also result, depending on whether the impact occurs over land or water. However, the longer-term effects that extend beyond the area initially affected are less well characterized. Because regional effects not only depend on the size of the impactor, but also on the location and timing of the event, case studies of impact events in various regions should be conducted to better understand how asteroid impact induced cascading hazards may vary. For this study, we use the initial impact effects from an 800-m asteroid strike at two locations: Dallas, TX, USA and Jebba, Nigeria. A detailed analysis of the regional impacts on Texas and Nigeria will be presented at the time of the conference.

Conference Paper↗

Effects of the earthquake of March 27, 1964, in the Homer area, Alaska

The March 27, 1964, earthquake shook the Homer area for about 3 minutes. Land effects consisted of a 2- to 6-foot subsidence of the mainland and Homer Spit, one earthflow at the mouth of a canyon, several landslides on the Homer escarpment and along the sea bluffs, and minor fissuring of the ground, principally at the edges of bluffs and on Homer Spit. Hydrologic effects consisted of at least one and possibly two submarine landslides at the end of the spit, seiche waves in Kachemak Bay, ice breakage on Beluga Lake, sanding of wells, and a temporary loss of water in some wells. Seismic damage to the community was light in comparison with that of other communities closer to the epicenter. One submarine landslide, however, took out most of the harbor breakwater. The greatest damage was due to the subsidence of the spit, both tectonically (2–3 ft) and by differential compaction or lateral spreading (an additional 1–4 ft). Higher tides now flood much of the spit. The harbor and dock had to be replaced, and buildings on the end of the spit had to be elevated. Protection works for other buildings and the highway were needed. These works included application of fill to raise the highway and parts of the spit above high tides. Reconstruction costs and disaster loans totaled about $2½ million, but this amount includes added improvement costs over preexisting values. Homer Spit in particular and the Homer area in general rank as areas where precautions must be taken in selecting building sites. The hazards of landslides, earthflows, compaction and submarine slumping—all of which might be triggered by an earthquake—should be considered in site selection. In plan, Homer Spit resembles a scimitar with its curving blade pointed seaward. It is about 4 miles long and as much as 1,500 feet wide. The spit is composed largely of gravel intermixed with some sand. After the earthquake and the resulting tectonic subsidence and compaction, much of the spit was below high-tide levels and consequently flooded periodically. The entire beach face has retreated. Much of the material eroded from the beach has been redeposited to form a new storm or frontal berm, locally migrating around buildings and covering roads. Beach recession of 10–15 feet is probably the overall average; maximum recession 1 year after the earthquake was 56 feet along one limited section of the distal end of the spit. Subsidence of the mainland has caused accelerated erosion of the beaches and headlands that have been—and are—source areas for the material deposited on Homer Spit. The resulting increased supply of gravel and sand probably will cause the spit to widen gradually on the Cook Inlet side. Similarly, the new frontal berm will probably grow to a height sufficient to prevent overtopping by all but the larger storm swashes. The nature of shore processes on the spit has not been materially altered by subsidence, but the rates of erosion and deposition have been accelerated. The lasting effect of subsidence (excluding flooding) will be enlargement of the beach on the Cook Inlet side and gradual wasting of the beach on the bay side of the spit.

Alaska↗