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Bathymetric and velocimetric surveys at highway bridges crossing the Missouri River between Kansas City and St. Louis, Missouri, May 19–26, 2021

Bathymetric and velocimetric data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Transportation, near nine bridges at eight highway crossings of the Missouri River between Kansas City and St. Louis, Missouri, from May 19 to 26, 2021. A multibeam echosounder mapping system was used to obtain channel-bed elevations for river reaches about 1,640 to 1,840 feet (ft) longitudinally and generally extending laterally across the active channel from bank to bank during low to moderate flood-flow conditions. These surveys provided channel geometry and hydraulic conditions at the time of the surveys and provided characteristics of scour holes that may be useful in developing or verifying predictive guidelines or equations for computing potential scour depth. These data also may be useful to the Missouri Department of Transportation as a low to moderate flood-flow assessment of the bridges for stability and integrity issues with respect to bridge scour during floods. Bathymetric data were collected around every in-channel pier. Scour holes were present at most piers for which bathymetry could be obtained, except those on banks or surrounded by riprap. Occasionally, scour holes were minor and difficult to discern from nearby dunes and ripples. All the bridge sites in this study were previously surveyed and documented in previous studies. Comparisons between bathymetric surfaces from the previous surveys and those of the current (2021) study do not indicate any consistent correlation between channel-bed elevations and streamflow conditions. The average difference between the bathymetric surfaces varied from 1.59 ft higher to 0.95 ft lower in 2021 than 2017, which corresponds to a gain of 100,200 cubic yards and a loss of 55,800 cubic yards, respectively. The average difference between the bathymetric surfaces varied from 2.74 ft higher to 3.05 ft lower in 2021 than 2013, which corresponds to a gain of 111,500 cubic yards and a loss of 169,200 cubic yards, respectively. The average difference between the bathymetric surfaces varied from 4.52 ft higher to 1.38 ft lower in 2021 than 2011, which corresponds to a gain of 221,100 cubic yards and a loss of 90,300 cubic yards, respectively. The most substantial overall net gain was 221,100 cubic yards between 2011 and 2021 at structures L0550 and A4497 at Jefferson City (site 20). The large net gain likely results from a combination of the mitigation of the scour holes near pier 4 of both bridges and the substantially lower flow in 2021 than in 2011. Alternatively, the most substantial overall net loss was 169,200 cubic yards between 2013 and 2021 at structure A6288 at Hermann (site 21), despite comparable streamflows. Pier size, nose shape, and skew to approach flow had a substantial effect on the size of the scour hole observed at a given pier. Larger and deeper scour holes were present at piers with wide or blunt noses caused by exposed footings or caissons. When a pier was skewed to primary approach flow, the scour hole was generally deeper and larger than at a similar pier without skew; furthermore, the shape of the scour hole near skewed piers in this study generally was longer and deeper on the side with impinging flow. At structure A6288 at Hermann (site 21), the scour hole near pier 5 was difficult to discern from nearby dunes and ripples, whereas the upstream edge of the footing was visible at pier 4, which likely contributes to the larger scour hole near that pier; the top of the footing may blunt the horseshoe vortex at pier 5, but the exposed front of the footing may exacerbate the vortex at pier 4.

Missouri

Hydrologic variability drives environmental and geospatial relationships in Smallmouth Bass (Micropterus dolomieu) distribution

Hydrologic variation is a primary driver of stream ecosystems. Changing hydrology can lead to assemblage shifts and alterations in suitable habitat for freshwater species. As climate change is predicted to alter flow patterns in addition to increasing water temperatures, insight into relationships between species occupancy, hydrology, and temperature is critical for understanding current and future distributions. We examined how hydrologic variability, temperature, and other environmental variables interact to influence Micropterus dolomieu (Smallmouth Bass) occurrence. We used Spatial Stream Network models, allowing for the incorporation of spatial autocorrelation along streams' unique dendritic network, to examine Smallmouth Bass occupancy across a range of hydrologic variation in the Ozark-Ouachita Interior Highlands, USA. Hydrologic variation was the main driver of Smallmouth Bass occurrence, with occurrence more likely in groundwater streams with low hydrologic variation and high flow permanence. For groundwater streams, occurrence was positively associated with summer stream temperature and negatively associated with annual stream temperature. As variation increased, more variables showed significant relationships with occurrence. Distance metrics were important for all models, however as hydrologic disturbance increased, flow connected distance played a lesser role and stream distance played a greater role. Hydrologic variability was the overarching determinant of Smallmouth Bass occurrence and strongly influenced the predictive importance of environmental variables and geospatial relationships. Greater hydrologic variability resulted in stronger statistical relationships between occurrence and environmental variables and an increased importance of system connectivity. As climate change alters hydrologic processes and streams become more variable, understanding and accounting for these shifting relationships is essential.

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma

Using the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio method to estimate thickness of the Barry Arm landslide, Prince William Sound, Alaska

Conducting detailed investigations of large landslides is difficult, especially in the subsurface, largely due to environmental factors such as steep slopes, difficult access, and numerous objective hazards. These factors have made it challenging to accurately estimate the depth to the failure surface of the Barry Arm landslide, a large (roughly 10 8 cubic meters), deep-seated bedrock landslide in Prince William Sound, Alaska, recognized in 2019. The landslide has exhibited accelerated movement in recent years and poses a potential tsunamigenic hazard if rapid failure occurs. Failure surface depth, equivalent to landslide thickness, is a necessary metric for landslide-volume calculations and associated tsunami wave models. In this report, we used seismic noise recorded by a seismometer located on the Barry Arm landslide in Alaska to calculate the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) to investigate the site fundamental frequency ( f 0 ) and depth of the failure surface. To ensure that observed peak frequencies in the spectral ratio were related to the underlying stratigraphy (and not caused by other noise sources like nearby glaciers, topographic resonance, weather, or human activities), we also calculated HVSRs using earthquake signals, HVSRs at other seismic stations within a 2.5-kilometer radius, and a standard spectral ratio between the landslide station and other sites. We observed multiple peaks in the landslide HVSR curves at 1.5 hertz (Hz), 4–5 Hz, and 7–11 Hz. The frequencies of these peaks were consistent at the landslide site through time and across methods and were dissimilar to those identified at other seismic stations in the area, making it unlikely the peaks were caused by local noise. Directional HVSRs calculated at 15-degree intervals showed amplification of the higher frequency peaks in the direction parallel to slip, indicating two-dimensional site effects. We used the distinct frequency peaks in the seismic record to develop a 4-layer conceptual model of the landslide wherein the top of the deepest layer represents the primary failure surface, or the boundary between damaged (mobile) and undamaged material. We inverted Rayleigh wave ellipticity curves within this 4-layer configuration with constraints on S-wave velocity and layer thickness based on analogous material properties identified in the literature. This was necessary absent any site-specific subsurface S-wave velocity data. The best-fitting models indicate a mean slope-normal depth to the failure surface of 188 (±9) meters (m), with additional stratigraphic boundaries at 4 and 20 m below ground surface, potentially representing layered motion. These results agree with and improve upon ranges estimated by previous studies and can support future modeling and assessment efforts at Barry Arm.

Alaska

Ground-motion aleatory-variability models for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands

I develop independent logic trees for aleatory variability for crustal and subduction-zone (interface and intraslab) earthquakes for seismic hazards analyses in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI) from existing suites of ground-motion models (GMMs) and from ground-motion datasets, including a regional PRVI dataset. The aleatory variability models are parameterized using a partially nonergodic partitioning of standard deviation that consists of independently developed between-event ( ), site-to-site ( ), and event-corrected single-station ( ) standard deviation components. The effects of nonlinear site response on aleatory variability are incorporated through additional terms that modify the standard deviation components. Because one goal of this work is to develop independent logic trees for aleatory variability that synthesize the aleatory variability models from GMMs, I make use of the functional forms of the input GMMs. The PRVI dataset contains a limited number of stations with high-quality site metadata and does not contain records from earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 6.1, so I choose not to develop the aleatory variability models from the regional dataset alone. Instead, the standard deviation components from regional ground-motion data are evaluated against the components derived from GMMs and from available global datasets, and regionalized standard deviation components are incorporated where there is evidence that regional effects exhibit substantial differences. The resulting logic trees for aleatory variability consist of models of and that are consistent with semiempirical GMMs for active crustal and subduction-zone regimes, and two alternative models of , including one model that exhibits site-to-site variability informed by PRVI data, with values that exceed global models. The aleatory variability models may be considered in future hazards assessments in PRVI to simplify the hazard calculations, to incorporate regional ground-motion variability effects, and to enable direct logic-tree weighs of aleatory variability.

Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands

From collision to subduction: Thermal-kinematic inversions constrain plate boundary structure and dip-slip activity in southwestern New Zealand

Constraints on three-dimensional fault system geometry and kinematics are required to understand both long-term tectonics and contemporary seismic hazard. In many cases, these parameters must be inferred from a combination of different data or analyses. Here, we invert low-temperature thermochronological data to quantitatively parameterize both the crustal-scale geometry and late Cenozoic dip-slip activity of the plate boundary system in southwest New Zealand. We find that the modern transpressive plate boundary system has accommodated the bulk of Australian-Pacific Plate convergence since establishment in the middle Miocene-early Pliocene. Shortening has occurred via (a) dextral-reverse slip on the moderate angle, listric central Alpine Fault décollement, and (b) reverse-slip on either the sharply curved, anti-listric northern Puysegur subduction interface or low-angle offshore thrust fault system that splays from the high-angle southern Alpine Fault at depth. We resolve late Cenozoic shortening rates on these structures that are indistinguishable, and interpret these to reflect the transfer of convergent deformation outboard of the predominantly strike-slip southern Alpine Fault. Our work helps elucidate the transition from strain localized oblique continental collision to strain partitioned subduction. We also provide an estimate of the across-strike width of the central-southern Alpine Fault section boundary at seismogenic depths. This is the first quantitative constraint on the geometry of a structural feature inferred to have arrested several major prehistoric earthquakes. This study furthers understanding of fault structure and dip-slip kinematics along the greatest sources of seismic hazard in and offshore of southwest New Zealand.

South Island

Grand Canyon landslide-dam and paleolake triggered by the Meteor Crater impact at 56 ka

This paper hypothesizes that the Meteor Crater impact in Arizona, USA, 56,000 years ago triggered landslides in Grand Canyon that dammed the Colorado River and formed Nankoweap paleolake. This is compatible with shock and earthquake physics for the impact that infer a M5.4 seismic event, attenuated to an effective magnitude of M3.5 at Grand Canyon. Results that support the hypothesis include radiocarbon dating of driftwood and luminescence dating of associated slack-water lake sediments that are preserved in caves up to 60 m above the modern Colorado River. Radiocarbon ages from two locations, including Stanton’s Cave, date the driftwood as 55.25 ± 2.44 ka (n = 4). Sediments associated with the driftwood gave a luminescence age of 56.00 ± 6.39 ka (n = 2). These six Grand Canyon dates, and three published ages for the Meteor Crater impact, show statistically indistinguishable results that support the hypothesis for a geologically instantaneous series of events with a mean age of 55.60 ± 1.30 ka. This work highlights the value of radiocarbon dating near the limits of the technique, integration of multiple dating methods, and seismic and landslide hazards associated with meteorite impacts in regions of extreme topography like Grand Canyon.

Arizona

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances in waters associated with oil and gas development in the Denver Basin

Use of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in the petroleum industry could be a cause for concern due to the large volumes of produced water (PW) generated during oil and gas extraction, the reuse of these wastes in water-stressed regions, and adverse health outcomes related to PFAS exposures. However, PW PFAS characterization is nearly absent in the literature, and hydraulic fracturing (HF) chemical disclosures often omit the identities of additives as proprietary. Here we evaluate PFAS in PW samples from three petroleum wells in the Denver Basin during their first year of production. Total concentrations of targeted PFAS (Σ 40 PFAS) were < 35 ng/L in PW samples, with short-chain PFAS like perfluorobutanoic acid persisting throughout the sampled duration. Analysis of freshwater inputs for hydraulic fracturing (Σ 40 PFAS ~ 113 ng/L) and mixed fracture fluid (Σ 40 PFAS ~ 69 ng/L) indicated much of the targeted PFAS content was derived from the input water, and not from HF additives, however samples subjected to oxidation indicated the presence of PFAS precursors that would not be detected by targeted analysis. This study highlights that while PFAS content is low in the studied PWs, the potential for redistribution of PFAS in the environment may be a consideration for reuse applications.

Colorado, Nebraska, Wyoming

Preface to the focus section on earthquake-induced ground deformation

Ground failure due to earthquake-induced liquefaction, surface fault rupture, and landsliding has caused substantial damage in the past and continues to pose risks to critical infrastructure in the future. The consideration of ground failure is central to engineering analysis and design, ranging from site-specific engineering assessments of ground failure potential to broader regional-scale ground failure assessments of near-real-time earthquake impacts or longer-term portfolio risk. Uncertainties in all aspects of the problem complicate the prediction of earthquake-induced ground failure, including the identification of hazard-susceptible geomaterials, characterizing their spatial extent and physical properties, spatio-temporal variability in groundwater conditions, characterization of earthquake ground motions, assessing ground failure severity, and linking ground failure severity to infrastructure damage and loss.

Seismological Research Letters

REDPy: A Python tool for automated repeating earthquake detection and visualization

Detecting and cataloging seismic events are among the most fundamental tasks in seismology. Many standardized tools for these tasks exist, including the open‐source package repeating earthquake detector in Python (REDPy). REDPy generates an organized catalog of seismic events from continuous waveform data, in which events are automatically separated into groups (“families”) by their waveform similarity through cross‐correlation. REDPy also automatically generates various outputs that allow a user to visualize important trends in the catalog, which may be used in real time or in retrospective analyses to allow rapid identification of interesting features. The code was designed for near‐real‐time volcano monitoring but is applicable across a broad range of use cases in seismology and seismoacoustics. In this article, the utility and performance of REDPy are demonstrated on two highly seismogenic volcanic eruption sequences: the onset of the dome‐building eruption of Mount St. Helens, Washington, from 2004 to 2005, and the entirety of the summit caldera collapse sequence of Kīlauea, Hawai‘i, in 2018. This article is meant to be a companion to the documentation of the code; in addition to detailing the basic required inputs, script functionality, and resulting outputs, the reasonings behind several important design decisions are also discussed.

Seismological Research Letters

Geochemistry of quartz and fluid inclusions associated with gold, tungsten, and antimony in the Stibnite-Yellow Pine district, Idaho

Deposits in the historic Stibnite-Yellow Pine district in east-central Idaho were mined for Ag, Au, Hg, Sb, and W. Ore is hosted in breccia and fault zones along NE-striking faults that transect the Atlanta lobe of the Late Cretaceous Idaho batholith and metamorphosed Neoproterozoic to lower Paleozoic rocks. Geochronological studies have delineated five superimposed and zoned hydrothermal events in the mining district which range in age from Late Cretaceous to the Eocene. They formed the following consecutive assemblages: (1) vein and disseminated pre-ore milky quartz (± calcite), muscovite, and brassy pyrite with minor molybdenite and base metal sulfides; (2) vein and disseminated quartz, calcite, sericite, auriferous-pyrite, and arsenopyrite; (3) potassium feldspar, quartz, dolomite, and calcite with vein and disseminated scheelite ± pyrite and arsenopyrite; (4) Au-Ag veins that contain adularia; and (5) breccia, vein, and disseminated quartz, calcite, and stibnite with minor Ag sulfosalts and distal zones of cinnabar and realgar at Fern and Hermes mines. In this study, the pressure, temperature, and composition of ore-forming fluids were measured in Au-, W-, and Sb-bearing samples collected from drill core and surface exposures. Using optical petrography, scanning electron microscopy cathodoluminescence (SEM-CL) and electron microprobe cathodoluminescence (EMPA-CL) imaging, as well as electron microprobe (EMP) and laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry trace element analyses, four major overprinting generations of hydrothermal quartz are defined. Fluid inclusion assemblages (FIAs) in each generation of quartz were characterized by microthermometry and laser Raman spectroscopy. Quartz and fluid inclusion paragenesis are as follows: (Qi) altered and overprinted Qi with no coeval FIAs that formed before or during event 1; (Q1) early veins as well as disseminated quartz with dull gray SEM-CL and H 2 O-NaCl-CO 2 FIAs that formed at minimum temperatures and pressures of 281° to 358°C and 1346 to 1789 bar during event 2 (Au); (Q2) vein and disseminated quartz, often euhedral, with H 2 O-NaCl ± CO 2 ± CH 4 FIAs that formed at minimum temperatures and pressures of 183° to 213°C and 72 to 602 bar during event 3 (W); and (Q3) euhedral and disseminated quartz with H 2 O-NaCl FIAs that formed at minimum temperature and pressures of 156° to 161°C and 5 to 6 bar during event 5 (Sb). Stibnite hosts H 2 O-NaCl FIAs trapped at minimum temperatures and pressures of 150° to 189°C and 5 to 12 bar that are similar to those of Q3-hosted FIAs. The quartz paragenetic history in the district follows a progressive temporal path from Tienriched quartz deposited by a relatively deep and higher temperature aqueous-carbonic fluid to a Li, Al, and Sb enriched quartz precipitated from a lower temperature aqueous fluid. Gases in fluid inclusion extracts from ore and gangue minerals were analyzed by mass spectrometry. Noble gas isotope analysis of fluid inclusion extracts revealed three signatures. Pre-ore Qi has R/R A (the isotopic ratio of the sample 3 He/ 4 He to atmospheric 3 He/ 4 He (1.384 × 10 −6 )) values that reflect the composition of the crustal melt-derived Atlanta lobe of the Idaho batholith. Quartz (Q1) and auriferous arsenian pyrite of hydrothermal event 2 have 20 Ne/ 4 He and R/R A values that plot along the air-crust mixing line, and these gases were likely introduced by metamorphic fluids derived from metasedimentary rocks. Stibnite with associated quartz (Q3 ± Q2) have 20 Ne/ 4 He and R/R A values that extend from the air-crust mixing line to the air-mantle mixing line, showing a shift from a crustal signature to an overprinting mantle signature. Late calcite has 20 Ne/ 4 He and R/R A values that extend from air toward the mantle end member, which suggests that magmatic volatiles condensed into meteoric groundwater late in the paragenesis. A mantle volatile source is also supported by high 20 Ne/ 22 Ne ratios. The Stibnite-Yellow Pine district is similar to other Au-W-Sb districts around the world in ore fluid chemistries, with late-stage stibnite being a product of cooling. The fluid pressure-temperature-composition (P-T-X) estimates and the crustal source of He during hydrothermal event 2 gold mineralization are characteristic of orogenic Au deposits, and the observed inclusion reequilibration textures indicate that trapped fluid inclusions were deformed during transitions between the brittle-ductile environment. Scheelite was deposited during event 3 with Q2 quartz and is overgrown by Q3 quartz and stibnite. Our interpretation of the quartz texture, chemistry, and fluid inclusion P-T-X data suggest that Au, W, and Sb mineralization occurred as hydrothermal fluids evolved from H 2 O-NaCl-CO 2 at >300°C and depths of ~4 to 6 km near the ductile to brittle transition to H 2 O-NaCl at ~150°C and epithermal depths as the Idaho batholith was exhumed. Geochronology indicates that from the Late Cretaceous to early Eocene, overprinting hydrothermal events formed deep orogenic Au, intermediate W, and shallow epithermal Au-Ag and Sb. Without comprehensive geochronologic constraints, our fluid inclusion data and textural observations could be interpreted as a single evolving hydrothermal system, as has been done in many other mining districts with similar mineralization.

Idaho

Seismicity zoning at Coso geothermal field and stress changes from fluid production and migration

The Coso geothermal field is a major geothermal power production site in the western United States. It has been observed that low-magnitude seismic events ( M < 3.71) are unevenly distributed in three distinct zones, namely, nearfield (<3 km), midfield (3–6 km), and farfield (> 6 km) from the Coso geothermal plant. These zones exhibit distinct changes in earthquake location before and during geothermal production episodes that began in 1986. After 1986, the midfield region of the main flank experiences a significantly lower seismicity rate than the surrounding areas before production episodes. During 2014–2019, the farfield earthquakes cluster in the eastern and western parts of the greater Coso area, which is discernably different from how those pre-production earthquake events were distributed along the conjugate NW-SE and SW-NW trending structures across the main flank. Here, we analyze the stage of stress with finite-element-based poroelastic simulations to illustrate how the spatiotemporal evolution of the seismicity is associated with the pattern of stress perturbations caused by fluid migration amid the operations of geothermal power plants. Generally, ∼70% of co-production seismicity is found in zones of increased Coulomb stress between 2014 and 2019 at >99% confidence. Meanwhile, the midfield zone of seismic paucity overlaps with the zone of decreasing pore-fluid pressure. Overall, the results provide a physical explanation of how decadal geothermal operations at Coso have perturbed stress-field changes and contributed to the evolving characteristic seismic pattern, shedding insights into assessing the seismic hazard in other geothermal settings.

California

Estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) Prediction for Eagle Ford Shale using integrated datasets and artificial neural networks

The estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) is an important parameter for forecasting oil and gas production and informing decisions regarding field development strategies. In this study, we combined site-specific geologic, completion, and operational parameters with the predictive capabilities of machine learning (ML) models to predict EURs of the wells for the Eagle Ford Marl Continuous Oil Assessment Unit. We developed an extensive dataset of wells that have produced from the lower and upper Eagle Ford Shale intervals and reduced the model complexity using principal component analysis. We tested the ML models and estimated the sensitivities of ML-predicted EURs to changes in the values of different input variables. The results of applying the optimized ML model to the Eagle Ford suggest that the approach developed in this study could be promising. The ML estimates of the EURs fit the DCA-based values with an R 2 ~ 0.9 and a mean absolute error of ~36 × 10 3 bbl. In the lower Eagle Ford Shale, the EUR estimates were found to be most sensitive to changes in porosity, net thickness of the interval, clay volume, and the API gravity of the oil; and that in the upper Eagle Ford Shale they were most sensitive to changes in the total organic carbon and water saturation, which suggests that it could be important to consider these parameters in assessing these intervals or close analogs.

Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas

Deformation mechanisms in quartz veins and shear zones elucidate the origin of gold mineralization at Pogo, Alaska

Pogo is a quartz vein hosted, ca. 8 Moz gold deposit. Although it has similarities to orogenic and magmatic-hydrothermal deposits, its origin remains enigmatic. Observations from surface exposures, underground workings, and drill core provide new constraints on quartz vein origins with implications for mineralization. Abundant, largely barren metamorphic segregation quartz veins are found throughout interior Alaska and share characteristics with mineralized quartz veins at Pogo. Pogo quartz veins show crystal plastic deformation fabrics consistent with greenschist to amphibolite facies metamorphism and a lack of internal shear. In contrast, gold in Pogo quartz veins occurs in brittle microfaults and fractures with sulphides such as arsenopyrite and pyrrhotite. Major and minor cataclastic shear zones also exist at Pogo. Cataclastic shear zones commonly cut the mineralized quartz veins and porphyroclasts are dominated by quartz with the same plastic deformation fabrics found in the major Pogo quartz veins. The porphyroclasts, and the carbonaceous clay-rich matrix they sit in, also contain gold indicating that the shear zones postdate quartz and earliest gold deposition. These observations suggest that competency contrasts between the quartz veins and their phyllosilicate-rich host rocks controlled transient permeability formed by late, preferential brittle deformation events localizing sulphide ± gold deposition.

Alaska

Spatial differences in soil nutrients along a hydrographic gradient on floodplains in Dongting Lake

The spatial heterogeneity of soil nutrients is crucial for the water bird and whole floodplain wetland ecosystem in large lakes, and it is influenced by the dramatic water level changes and sedimentation progress in West Dongting Lake (WDL). Soil samples were collected at various soil depths along the Yuan River and Li River that feed into WDL. The concentrations of soil total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and soil grain size were tested. The stoichiometric ratios of C, N, P, and the mean value of soil grain size ( Mz ) were calculated. The differences of soil TOC, TN, TP and the stoichiometric ratio at different sites and soil depths were compared. Linear regression was used to explore the relationships of Mz and nutrient concentrations, and relationships between TOC, TN, and TP. Redundancy analysis was used to explore the relationship between soil nutrients, heavy metal concentrations, and plant community diversity. The results showed that the distributions of soil TOC, TN, and TP concentrations differed across regions in west Dongting Lake along the Yuan and Li Rivers. Total organic carbon concentration differed at different sedimentation depths. Soil grain size showed negative effect with soil TOC, TN, and TP concentrations in this region. Plant community diversity correlated positively with soil TOC and negatively with Hg. West Dongting Lake was N limited despite the high wet deposition of N. It could potentially be attributed to the insufficient presence of aerobic environments for microbes during intermittent flooding of the floodplain, coupled with feeble mineralization. This study can provide valuable insights for the conservation of water bird habitats and wetland ecosystems.

West Dongting Lake

Cursed? Why one does not simply add new data sets to supervised geothermal machine learning models

Recent advances in machine learning (ML) identifying areas favorable to hydrothermal systems indicate that the resolution of feature data remains a subject of necessary improvement before ML can reliably produce better models. Herein, we consider the value of adding new features or replacing other, low-value features with new input features in existing ML pipelines. Our previous work identified stress and seismicity as having less value than the other feature types (i.e., heat flow, distance to faults, and distance to magmatic activity) for the 2008 USGS hydrothermal energy assessment; hence, a fundamental question regards if the addition of new but partially correlated features will improve resulting models for hydrothermal favorability. Therefore, we add new maps for shear strain rate and dilation strain rate to fit logistic regression and XGBoost models, resulting in new 7-feature models that are compared to the old 5-feature models. Because these new features share a degree of correlation with the original relatively uninformative stress and seismicity features, we also consider replacement of the two lower-value features with the two new features, creating new 5-feature models. Adding the new features improves the predictive skill of the new 7-feature model over that of the old 5-feature model; albeit, that improvement is not statistically significant because the new features are correlated with the old features and, consequently, the new features do not present considerable new information. However, the new 5-feature XGBoost model has a statistically significant increase in predictive skill for known positives over the old 5-feature model at p = 0.06. This improved performance is due to the lower-dimensional feature space of the former than that of the latter. In higher-dimensional feature space, relationships between features and the presence or absence of hydrothermal systems are harder to discern (i.e., the 7-feature model likely suffers from the “curse of dimensionality”).

Geothermal Resources Council Transactions

Rare earth elements on the Moon

Rare earth elements (REEs) are a scarce but vital resource for our modern economies and lifestyles. Since the late 1990s, China has supplied the vast majority of the world’s refined REEs. Increasing global demand has broadened the search for REE deposits to unconventional places, including the Moon. Although most lunar rocks have very low REE concentrations, Apollo samples showed that one type of lunar rock containing potassium (K), REEs, and phosphorus (P)—known by the acronym KREEP—has high concentrations of REEs. Data from orbiting satellites have identified locations where substantial deposits of KREEP are likely. The viability of mining these deposits depends on the evolution of REE economics, the development of the Earth-Moon infrastructure, and the findings from future lunar mineral exploration missions.

Fact Sheet

Streamflow, base flow, and ground-water recharge in the Housatonic River basin, western Massachusetts and parts of eastern New York and northwestern Connecticut

Streamflows for selected flow durations from 1 to 99 percent and the August median streamflows were estimated for 11 long-term streamflow-gaging stations in and near the study area. Estimates of streamflow and associated standard errors were determined for selected flow durations from 50 to 99 percent and the August median streamflows for 21 low-flow partial-record stations and for selected flow durations from 1 to 99 percent and the August median streamflows for two partial-record stations and seven short-term discontinued streamflow-gaging stations. Median streamflows per square mile for the 10-, 50-, and 90-percent flow durations and the August median streamflows were 3.90, 1.01, 0.185, and 0.248 cubic feet per second per square mile. Streamflows per square mile at selected flow-duration discharges between 1 and 99 percent at the 41 stations were related to basin characteristics to explain differences in streamflow characteristics. Basin characteristics included basin elevations, extent of stratified-drift deposits, land use, aspect, and underlying bedrock geology types. Most streamflow differences were positively correlated to basin elevation differences, most likely because precipitation increases with elevation, and to stratified-drift deposits, which allow more precipitation to recharge the ground water and to discharge later than do till and bedrock deposits. Mean base flow was computed from continuous records of daily mean discharge at 11 long-term streamflow-gaging stations in and near the study area. Mean annual base flow ranged from 13.4 to 24.5 inches per year. Minimum annual base flow ranged from 45 to 72 percent of mean annual rates at the 11 long-term stations, and the ratio of base flow to streamflow (base-flow index) ranged from 0.55 to 0.80. Base-flow durations between 1 and 99 percent were calculated from streamflow records at the 11 long-term streamflow-gaging stations. Base flow accounted for 45.5 to 85.0 percent of total annual streamflow at the 1- and 99-percent flow durations. Ground-water-recharge rates were computed from continuous records of daily mean discharge at 11 long-term streamflow-gaging stations in and near the study area. Mean annual ground-water-recharge rates ranged from 17.5 to 22.4 inches per year at 10 of the 11 long-term stations. Mean annual ground-water-recharge rates ranged from 2 to 7 inches per year higher than base flow. Minimum annual ground-water-recharge rates ranged from 48 to 72 percent of mean annual ground-water-recharge rates. Mean annual potential ground-water recharge was estimated from monthly climatological data collected at six climatological stations in and near the study area. Mean potential ground-water recharge ranged from about 17.9 to 28.9 inches per year, with a median value of 22.6 inches per year. This median value compares well to that calculated by use of streamflow records at the 11 streamflow-gaging stations (20.0 inches per year). Streamflows per square mile for the 10-, 50-, and 90-percent flow durations at stations in and near the study area were similar to those computed for other unregulated long-term continuous streamflow-gaging stations in central and eastern Massachusetts. Base-flow and ground-water-recharge rates in the study area compared closely to results from other studies in southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, which were based on the same computational methods.

Connecticut, Massachusetts, New York

Digitizer Suite: The Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory Digitizer Testing Suite

Laboratory testing of digitizers and seismometers helps ensure that prior to deployment the instrumentation can produce high quality data and is operating within specifications. In this work we detail the software package called: the Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory (ASL) Digitizer Test Suite. This Java software package provides several algorithms to verify various performance parameters of digitizers commonly used for recording analog seismic instruments. The goal of these tests is not to be exhaustive, but to identify common failures that could compromise the integrity of seismic data being recorded on the digitizer. For example, Sandia National Laboratories (e.g., Slad and Merchant, 2018) routinely do comprehensive testing of digitizers for various monitoring missions. While these tests reports are valuable for comprehensively characterizing a recording system, it would be resource intensive to conduct such tests on every seismic recorder used in a network. We focus on tests that include ways to estimate the sensitivity, timing, self-noise, and clip-level of the digitizer, as well as the fidelity of the signal being recorded. The software is publicly available and provides a way for the community to verify the integrity of a digitizer using a minimum amount of outside equipment.

Seismological Research Letters