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USGS2007

Otolith research for Puget Sound

Otoliths are hard structures located in the brain cavity of fish. These structures are formed by a buildup of calcium carbonate within a gelatinous matrix that produces light and dark bands similar to the growth rings in trees. The width of the bands corresponds to environmental factors such as temperature and food availability. As juvenile salmon encounter different environments in their migration to sea, they produce growth increments of varying widths and visible 'checks' corresponding to times of stress or change. The resulting pattern of band variations and check marks leave a record of fish growth and residence time in each habitat type. This information helps Puget Sound restoration by determining the importance of different habitats for the optimal health and management of different salmon populations. The USGS Western Fisheries Research Center (WFRC) provides otolith research findings directly to resource managers who put this information to work.

Washington↗

USGS2015

Transgenerational effects from early developmental exposures to bisphenol A or 17α-ethinylestradiol in medaka, Oryzias latipes

The transgenerational consequences of environmental contaminant exposures of aquatic vertebrates have the potential for broad ecological impacts, yet are largely uninvestigated. Bisphenol A (BPA) and 17 α -ethinylestradiol (EE2) are two ubiquitous estrogenic chemicals present in aquatic environments throughout the United States and many other countries. Aquatic organisms, including fish, are exposed to varying concentrations of these chemicals at various stages of their life history. Here, we tested the ability of embryonic exposure to BPA or EE2 to cause adverse health outcomes at later life stages and transgenerational abnormalities in medaka fish. Exposures of F0 medaka to either BPA (100 μ g/L) or EE2 (0.05 μ g/L) during the first 7 days of embryonic development, when germ cells are differentiating, did not cause any apparent phenotypic abnormalities in F0 or F1 generations, but led to a significant reduction in the fertilization rate in offspring two generations later (F2) as well as a reduction of embryo survival in offspring three generations later (F3). Our present observations suggest that BPA or EE2 exposure during development induces transgenerational phenotypes of reproductive impairment and compromised embryonic survival in fish of subsequent generations. These adverse outcomes may have negative impacts on populations of fish inhabiting contaminated aquatic environments.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS1994

U.S. Geological Survey yearbook, fiscal year 1993: At work across the Nation

The need for earth science has never been more paramount. The devastating flooding of the Mississippi River this past year, strikingly portrayed on the cover and discussed in detail in this report (p. 37-42), was a sobering reminder of nature's elemental power. As a Nation, we face many environmental and economic challenges, such as natural hazards, that can be addressed effectively only through science. Water quality, resource assessments, climate change, and toxic wastes are all critical issues that can best be dealt with when approached from a sound scientific base. The goal of the U.S. Geological Survey is to provide hydrologic, geologic, and topographic information and understanding that contribute to the wise management of the Nation's natural resources and that promote the health, safety, and well-being of all Americans. FY1993 has proven to be a particularly challenging one for the USGS. We entered into a time of transition from the long-term leadership of Director Dallas Peck and Associate Director Doyle Frederick to the appointment of a new director. We thank Dallas and Doyle for their many years of service and for their support during the transition.

Yearbook↗

USGS2026

An automated geographic information system-based hydraulic modeling tool for developing preliminary culvert designs for stream crossings in Massachusetts

Introduction Currently (2026), many of the about 25,000 roadway crossing structures over rivers and streams in Massachusetts are undersized. Undersized culverts and bridges can be detrimental to fish and wildlife movement, habitat continuity, and the health of aquatic organisms. Undersized culverts also can lack the resiliency needed to withstand large floods, which could be worsened by potential increases in flood magnitude and frequency due to climate change. Improving culvert and bridge designs for stream crossing projects may improve aquatic organism passage, stream continuity, and resiliency during future floods by decreasing upstream overbank flooding, road flooding and erosion, and degradation of aquatic habitat. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection (MassDEP), and University of Massachusetts Amherst began a series of cooperative studies in July 2019 to develop an automated geographic information system (GIS) hydraulic modeling tool for preliminary culvert designs for stream crossings. The USGS plans to provide preliminary culvert designs in the web-based StreamStats application, which enables municipalities and engineers to view potential designs and related information for stream crossing replacement projects in Massachusetts. This application can (a) provide information on hydrology, hydraulics, and ecological conditions at stream crossing sites, (b) provide users with potential culvert designs to improve aquatic organism passage and flood resiliency, and (c) assist MassDEP in implementing the Massachusetts Wetlands Protection Act regulations for stream crossing projects.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2021

Modeling estrogenic activity in streams throughout the Potomac and Chesapeake Bay watersheds

Endocrine-disrupting compounds (EDCs), specifically estrogenic endocrine-disrupting compounds, vary in concentration and composition in surface waters under the influence of different landscape sources and landcover gradients. Estrogenic activity in surface waters may lead to adverse effects in aquatic species at both individual and population levels, often observed through the presence of intersex and vitellogenin induction in male fish. In the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, located on the mid-Atlantic coast of the USA, intersex has been observed in several sub-watersheds where previous studies have identified specific landscape sources of EDCs in tandem with observed fish health effects. Previous work in the Potomac River Watershed (PRW), the largest basin within the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, was leveraged to build random forest regression models to predict estrogenic activity at unsampled reaches in both the Potomac River and larger Chesapeake Bay Watersheds (CBW). Model outputs including important variables, partial dependence plots, and predicted values of estrogenic activity at unsampled reaches provide insight into drivers of estrogenic activity at different seasons and scales. Using the US Environmental Protection Agency effects-based threshold of 1.0 ng/L 17 β-estradiol equivalents, catchments predicted to exceed this value were categorized as at risk for adverse effects from exposure to estrogenic compounds and evaluated relative to healthy watersheds and recreation access locations throughout the PRW. Results show immediate catchment scale models are more reliable than upstream models, and the best predictive variables differ by season and scale. A small percentage of healthy watersheds (< 13%) and public access sites were classified as at risk using the “Total” (annual) model in the CBW. This study is the first Potomac River Watershed assessment of estrogenic activity, providing a new foundation for future risk assessment and management design efforts, with additional context provided for the entire Chesapeake Bay Watershed.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin↗

USGS2018

Indicators of ecosystem structure and function for the Upper Mississippi River System

This report documents the development of quantitative measures (indicators) of ecosystem structure and function for use in a Habitat Needs Assessment (HNA) for the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS). HNAs are led periodically by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ Upper Mississippi River Restoration (UMRR) Program, which is the primary habitat restoration program on the UMRS. The UMRR Program helps determine how Federal, State and nongovernmental agencies can best address environmental issues on one of the world’s largest and most diverse river systems. Each indicator in this report represents at least one management objective developed for the river system. These objectives were developed in a previous planning effort using an ecosystem management conceptual framework (USACE, 2011). The objectives represent five essential ecosystem characteristics: hydraulics and hydrology, biogeochemistry, geomorphology, habitat, and biota. Subsequent to the 2011 planning effort, the UMRR increased its focus on improving the health and resilience of the UMRS. The indicators presented here are based on the five essential ecosystem characteristics and four aspects of ecosystems thought to support general ecosystem resilience (the ability of an ecosystem to adapt and respond to disturbances): (1) connectivity, (2) diversity and redundancy, (3) controlling variables, and (4) slow processes. Thus, we developed indicators that quantify both essential ecosystem characteristics and characteristics of a resilient river system. The indicators documented in this report focus on important aspects of river floodplain hydrogeomorphology, given the fundamental role hydrogeomorphology plays in determining habitat conditions and ecosystem health and resilience at broad geographic scales. The information contained within this report provides a broader scale (for example, system-wide) context for management decisions made at finer scales (for example, within river reaches or at project sites) and is designed for use in the formal system-wide Habitat Needs Assessment II (HNA–II) led by the UMRR Program.

Upper Mississippi River System↗

USGS2024

Enhanced microplastic fragmentation along human built structures in an urban waterway

Plastic pollution and microplastic (MP, 1 µm to 5 mm) generation are growing problems affecting the global community and a wide range of natural and disturbed environments. Urban and suburban waterways are directly impacted by plastic pollution due to their proximity to population centers and many different types single use plastic waste sources. In this study, plastic waste accumulation and fragmentation was investigated along the Cooper River in Camden County, NJ. Polymer composition was identified for individual plastic waste particles collected along the Cooper River using Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometry. Multiple human-built structures (Wallworth Lake, Evans Pond and Hopkins Pond dams) along the Cooper River were found to accumulate different types of plastic waste. The accumulation of plastic waste along these structures resulted in the initial stages of plastic fragmentation and the identification of large MP particles (1 to 5 mm). Quantitative analysis revealed that fragmented polystyrene (PS) particles constituted 82.8% of the total plastic fragments identified, most of which were identified at the Wallworth Lake dam. Many other types of fragmented plastic litter, including polyethylene and polypropylene, were identified at the Wallworth Lake dam, as well. This research demonstrates that engineered structures within urban and suburban aquatic ecosystems serve as significant aggregators of plastic debris, thereby catalyzing its breakdown into microplastics. Considering the escalating ecological and human health ramifications of microplastic proliferation, the fragmentation of plastic waste in an urban and suburban waterway observed in this study can also result in potentially toxic smaller MP particles, and increased exposure to aquatic organisms and humans.

New Jersey↗

USGS2021

Neither microcystin, nor nodularin, nor cylindrospermopsin directly interact with human toll-like receptors

Various stressors including temperature, environmental chemicals, and toxins can have profound impacts on immunity to pathogens. Increased eutrophication near rivers and lakes coupled with climate change are predicted to lead to increased algal blooms. Currently, the effects of cyanobacterial toxins on disease resistance in mammals is a largely unexplored area of research. Recent studies have suggested that freshwater cyanotoxins can elicit immunomodulation through interaction with specific components of innate immunity, thus potentially altering disease susceptibility parameters for fish, wildlife, and human health owing to the conserved nature of the vertebrate immune system. In this study, we investigated the effects of three microcystin congeners (LR, LA, and RR), nodularin-R, and cylindrospermopsin for their ability to directly interact with nine different human Toll-like receptors (TLRs)—key pathogen recognition receptors for innate immunity. Toxin concentrations were verified by LC/MS/MS prior to use. Using an established HEK293-hTLR NF-κB reporter assay, we concluded that none of the tested toxins (29–90 nM final concentration) directly interacted with human TLRs in either an agonistic or antagonistic manner. These results suggest that earlier reports of cyanotoxin-induced NF-κB responses likely occur through different surface receptors to mediate inflammation.

Chemosphere↗

USGS1998

Microbiological quality of public-water supplies in the Ozark Plateaus aquifer system, Missouri

In 1986, Congress amended the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) requiring the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) to promulgate disinfection requirements for all public-water supplies. The USEPA promulgated the Surface Water Treatment Rule (SWTR) in June 1989 to establish disinfection requirements for surface-water supplies and for ground water under the direct influence of surface water. To complete the requirements of the SDWA, the USEPA plans to propose and promulgate disinfection requirements for ground water not under the direct influence of surface water to protect the public health of persons served by those systems.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2008

Ground-Water Availability Assessment for the Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System, Washington, Oregon, and Idaho

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is assessing the availability and use of the Nation's water resources to gain a clearer understanding of the status of our water resources and the land-use, water-use, and climatic trends that affect them. The goal of the National assessment is to improve our ability to forecast water availability for future economic and environmental uses. Assessments will be completed for regional aquifer systems across the Nation to help characterize how much water we have now, how water availability is changing, and how much water we can expect to have in the future (Reilly and others, 2008). Water availability is a function of many factors, including the quantity and quality of water, and the laws, regulations, economics, and environmental factors that control its use. The focus of the Columbia Plateau regional ground-water availability assessment is to improve fundamental knowledge of the ground-water balance of the region, including the flows, storage, and ground-water use by humans. An improved quantitative understanding of the region's water balance not only provides key information about water quantity, but also can serve as a fundamental basis for many analyses of water quality and ecosystem health.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2000

Health risks due to radon in drinking water

Following more than a decade of scientific debate about the setting of a standard for 222Rn in drinking water, Congress established a timetable for the promulgation of a standard in the 1996 Amendments to the Safe Drinking Water Act. As a result of those Amendments, the EPA contracted with the National Academy of Sciences to undertake a risk assessment for exposure to radon in drinking water. In addition, the resulting committee was asked to address several other scientific issues including the national average ambient 222Rn concentration and the increment of 222Rn to the indoor- air concentration arising from the use of drinking water in a home. A new dosimetric analysis of the cancer risk to the stomach from ingestion was performed. The recently reported risk estimates developed by the BEIR VI Committee for inhalation of radon decay products were adopted. Because the 1996 Amendments permit states to develop programs in which mitigation of air- producing health-risk reductions equivalent to that which would be achieved by treating the drinking water, the scientific issues involved in such 'multimedia mitigation programs' were explored.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2017

Semi-quantitative assessment of disease risks at the human, livestock, wildlife interface for the Republic of Korea using a nationwide survey of experts: A model for other countries

Wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens have increased in importance; however, management of a large number of diseases and diversity of hosts is prohibitively expensive. Thus, the determination of priority wildlife pathogens and risk factors for disease emergence is warranted. We used an online questionnaire survey to assess release and exposure risks, and consequences of wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens in the Republic of Korea (ROK). We also surveyed opinions on pathways for disease exposure, and risk factors for disease emergence and spread. For the assessment of risk, we employed a two-tiered, statistical K -means clustering algorithm to group diseases into three levels (high, medium and low) of perceived risk based on release and exposure risks, societal consequences and the level of uncertainty of the experts’ opinions. To examine the experts’ perceived risk of routes of introduction of pathogens and disease amplification and spread, we used a Bayesian, multivariate normal order-statistics model. Six diseases or pathogens, including four livestock and two wildlife diseases, were identified as having high risk with low uncertainty. Similarly, 13 diseases were characterized as having high risk with medium uncertainty with three of these attributed to livestock, six associated with human disease, and the remainder having the potential to affect human, livestock and wildlife (i.e., One Health). Lastly, four diseases were described as high risk with high certainty, and were associated solely with fish diseases. Experts identified migration of wildlife, international human movement and illegal importation of wildlife as the three routes posing the greatest risk of pathogen introduction into ROK. Proximity of humans, livestock and wildlife was the most significant risk factor for promoting the spread of wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens, followed by high density of livestock populations, habitat loss and environmental degradation, and climate change. This study provides useful information to decision makers responsible for allocating resources to address disease risks. This approach provided a rapid, cost-effective method of risk assessment of wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens for which the published literature is sparse.

Transboundary and Emerging Diseases↗

USGS1996

Environmental setting of benchmark streams in agricultural areas of eastern Wisconsin

This report describes the environmental setting of 20 benchmark streams in agricultural areas of eastern Wisconsin that are part of the Western Lake Michigan Drainages, National Water-Quality Assessment Program. Benchmark streams are defined as those that show minimal adverse effects from human activity, and they were selected on the basis of field reconnaissance and the following criteria: (1) available invertebrate or fisheries data that indicated good to excellent water quality, (2) instream habitat restoration for fisheries enhancement, and (3) land management to protect riparian vegetation. Information gathered from these benchmark sites can be used as a standard of reference to compare the health of other streams in agricultural areas on the basis of aquatic-biota communities, habitat, and water-quality characteristics. The information included in this report serves as background information that will be useful for a series of studies at these benchmark-stream sites in the Western Lake Michigan Drainages study unit as part of the National Water-Quality Assessment Program. Four relatively homogeneous units (RHU's) in agricultural areas that differed in bedrock and surficial geology were selected for study. RHU 1 (clayey surficial deposits over carbonate bedrock) and RHU 3 (sandy-till surficial deposits over carbonate bedrock) are in adjacent agricultural areas in the Southeastern Wisconsin Till Plains ecoregion. RHU 20 (sandy/sand and gravel surficial deposits over igneous and metamorphic bedrock) and RHU 26 (sandy/sand and gravel surficial deposits over sandstone bedrock) are in adjacent areas of agriculture and mixed forests in the North Central Hardwood Forests ecoregion. Differences in land use/land cover, and riparian vegetation and instream habitat characteristics are presented. Summaries of field measurements of water temperature, pH, specific conductance and concentrations of dissolved oxygen, total organic plus ammonia nitrogen, dissolved ammonium, nitrate plus nitrte as nitrogen, total phosphorus, dissolved orthophosphate, and atrazine are listed. Concentrations of dissolved oxygen for the sampled streams ranged from 6 A to 14.3 and met the standards set by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) for supporting fish and aquatic life. Specific conductance ranged from 98 to 753 u,Scm with values highest in RHU's 1 and 3, where streams are underlain by carbonate bedrock. Median pH did not vary greatly among the four RHU's and ranged from 6.7 to 8.8 also meeting the WDNR standards. Concentrations of total organic plus ammonia nitrogen, dissolved ammonium, total phosphorus, and dissolved orthophosphate show little variation between streams and are generally low, compared to concentrations measured in agriculturally-affected streams in the same RHU's during the same sampling period. Concentrations of the most commonly used pesticide in the study unit, atrazine, were low in all streams, and most concentrations were below trn 0.1 u,g/L detection limit. Riparian vegetation for the benchmark streams were characterized by lowland species of the native plant communities described by John T. Curtis in the "Vegetation of Wisconsin." Based on the environmental setting and water-quality information collected to date, these streams appear to show minimal adverse effects from human activity.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2018

Leveraging big data towards functionally-based, catchment scale restoration prioritization

The persistence of freshwater degradation has necessitated the growth of an expansive stream and wetland restoration industry, yet restoration prioritization at broad spatial extents is still limited and ad-hoc restoration prevails. The River Basin Restoration Prioritization tool has been developed to incorporate vetted, distributed data models into a catchment scale restoration prioritization framework. Catchment baseline condition and potential improvement with restoration activity is calculated for all National Hydrography Dataset stream reaches and catchments in North Carolina and compared to other catchments within the river subbasin to assess where restoration efforts may best be focused. Hydrologic, water quality, and aquatic habitat quality conditions are assessed with peak flood flow, nitrogen and phosphorus loading, and aquatic species distribution models. The modular nature of the tool leaves ample opportunity for future incorporation of novel and improved datasets to better represent the holistic health of a watershed, and the nature of the datasets used herein allow this framework to be applied at much broader scales than North Carolina.

Environmental Management↗

USGS2021

Until It's a regulation it's not my fight: Complexities of a voluntary nonlead hunting ammunition program

Wildlife and human health are at risk of lead exposure from spent hunting ammunition. Lead exposure persists for bald eagles due to bullet fragments in game animal gut piles and unretrieved carcasses, and is also a human health risk when wild game is procured using lead ammunition. Programs encouraging the voluntary use of nonlead ammunition have become a popular approach mitigating these effects. This study explored attitudes and experiences of United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) staff implementing an outreach program encouraging deer hunters to voluntary use nonlead ammunition on 54 National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) in the Upper Midwest, U.S. to understand factors affecting program implementation. We conducted 29 semi-structured interviews of USFWS staff along with 60 responses from an open-ended survey question. Twelve themes emerged from the data and were grouped into three broad categories: (1) challenges of dealing with complex issues, (2) importance of messengers and messages, and (3) resistance from staff. Challenges of dealing with complex issues included administrative restraint and uncertainty, scope and scale of program, human health not an agency responsibility, contextual political influences, and public-private collaborations. Importance of messengers and messages included the importance of experience, and salience of human health risk. Finally, resistance from staff included skepticism of the science and motives behind the program, competing priorities for refuge staff, differing perceptions of regulatory and voluntary approaches, cost and availability of nonlead ammunition, and disregard by some about lead ammunition and human health risks. Staff identified numerous challenges implementing the program, many of which were external factors beyond the control of the participants. Understanding the factors affecting program implementation may help guide future efforts encouraging the voluntary use of nonlead ammunition.

Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Miss↗

USGS2023

Contribution of arsenic and uranium in private wells and community water systems to urinary biomarkers in US adults: The Strong Heart Study and the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Background Chronic exposure to inorganic arsenic (As) and uranium (U) in the United States (US) occurs from unregulated private wells and federally regulated community water systems (CWSs). The contribution of water to total exposure is assumed to be low when water As and U concentrations are low. Objective We examined the contribution of water As and U to urinary biomarkers in the Strong Heart Family Study (SHFS), a prospective study of American Indian communities, and the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), a prospective study of racially/ethnically diverse urban U.S. communities. Methods We assigned residential zip code-level estimates in CWSs (µg/L) and private wells (90th percentile probability of As >10 µg/L) to up to 1485 and 6722 participants with dietary information and urinary biomarkers in the SHFS (2001–2003) and MESA (2000–2002; 2010–2011), respectively. Urine As was estimated as the sum of inorganic and methylated species, and urine U was total uranium. We used linear mixed-effects models to account for participant clustering and removed the effect of dietary sources via regression adjustment. Results The median (interquartile range) urine As was 5.32 (3.29, 8.53) and 6.32 (3.34, 12.48) µg/L for SHFS and MESA, respectively, and urine U was 0.037 (0.014, 0.071) and 0.007 (0.003, 0.018) µg/L. In a meta-analysis across both studies, urine As was 11% (95% CI: 3, 20%) higher and urine U was 35% (5, 73%) higher per twofold higher CWS As and U, respectively. In the SHFS, zip-code level factors such as private well and CWS As contributed 46% of variation in urine As, while in MESA, zip-code level factors, e.g., CWS As and U, contribute 30 and 49% of variation in urine As and U, respectively. Impact statement We found that water from unregulated private wells and regulated CWSs is a major contributor to urinary As and U (an estimated measure of internal dose) in both rural, American Indian populations and urban, racially/ethnically diverse populations nationwide, even at levels below the current regulatory standard. Our findings indicate that additional drinking water interventions, regulations, and policies can have a major impact on reducing total exposures to As and U, which are linked to adverse health effects even at low levels.

Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epid↗

USGS2021

Public and private tapwater: Comparative analysis of contaminant exposure and potential risk, Cape Cod, Massachusetts, USA

Background Humans are primary drivers of environmental contamination worldwide, including in drinking-water resources. In the United States (US), federal and state agencies regulate and monitor public-supply drinking water while private-supply monitoring is rare; the current lack of directly comparable information on contaminant-mixture exposures and risks between private- and public-supplies undermines tapwater (TW) consumer decision-making. Methods We compared private- and public-supply residential point-of-use TW at Cape Cod, Massachusetts, where both supplies share the same groundwater source. TW from 10 private- and 10 public-supply homes was analyzed for 487 organic, 38 inorganic, 8 microbial indicators, and 3 in vitro bioactivities. Concentrations were compared to existing protective health-based benchmarks, and aggregated Hazard Indices (HI) of regulated and unregulated TW contaminants were calculated along with ratios of in vitro exposure-activity cutoffs. Results Seventy organic and 28 inorganic constituents were detected in TW. Median detections were comparable, but median cumulative concentrations were substantially higher in public supply due to 6 chlorine–disinfected samples characterized by disinfection byproducts and corresponding lower heterotrophic plate counts. Public-supply applicable maximum contaminant (nitrate) and treatment action (lead and copper) levels were exceeded in private-supply TW samples only. Exceedances of health-based HI screening levels of concern were common to both TW supplies. Discussion These Cape Cod results indicate comparable cumulative human-health concerns from contaminant exposures in private- and public-supply TW in a shared source-water setting. Importantly, although this study’s analytical coverage exceeds that currently feasible for water purveyors or homeowners, it nevertheless is a substantial underestimation of the full breadth of contaminant mixtures documented in the environment and potentially present in drinking water. Conclusion Regardless of the supply, increased public engagement in source-water protection and drinking-water treatment, including consumer point-of-use treatment, is warranted to reduce risks associated with long-term TW contaminant exposures, especially in vulnerable populations.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2020

Parsing the effects of demography, climate, and management on recurrent brucellosis outbreaks in elk

1. Zoonotic pathogens can harm human health and well-being directly or by impacting livestock. Pathogens that spillover from wildlife can also impair conservation efforts if humans perceive wildlife as pests. Brucellosis, caused by the bacterium Brucella abortus, circulates in elk and bison herds of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and poses a risk to cattle and humans. Our goal was to understand the relative effects of climatic drivers, host demography, and management control programs on disease dynamics. 2. Using >20 years of serologic, demographic, and environmental data on brucellosis in elk, we built stochastic compartmental models to assess the influences of climate forcing, herd immunity, population turnover, and management interventions on pathogen transmission. Data were collected at feedgrounds visited in winter by free-ranging elk in Wyoming, USA. 3. Snowpack, hypothesized as a driver of elk aggregation and thus brucellosis transmission, was strongly correlated across feedgrounds. We expected this variable to drive synchronized disease dynamics across herds. Instead, we demonstrate asynchronous epizootics driven by variation in demographic rates. 4. We evaluated the effectiveness of test-and-slaughter of seropositive female elk at two feedgrounds. Test-and-slaughter temporarily reduced herd-level seroprevalence but likely reduced herd immunity while removing few infectious individuals, resulting in subsequent outbreaks once the intervention ceased. We simulated an alternative strategy of removing seronegative female elk and found it would increase herd immunity, yielding fewer infections. We evaluated a second experimental treatment wherein feeding density was reduced at one feedground, but we found no evidence for an effect despite a decade of implementation. 5. Synthesis and applications: Positive serostatus is often weakly correlated with infectiousness but is nevertheless used to make management decisions including lethal removal in wildlife disease systems. We show how this can have adverse consequences whereas efforts that maintain herd immunity can have longer-term protective effects. Climatic drivers may not result in synchronous disease dynamics across populations unless vital rates are also similar because demographic factors have a large influence on disease patterns.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗