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Multiple machine-learning estimation of groundwater levels and trends for the regional Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer

The Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer provides irrigation, public, and domestic water supplies across the south-central United States. Declining groundwater levels require improved characterization of changing conditions. Traditional potentiometric-surface mapping does not use all available water-level data or quantify uncertainty. To address these limitations, we developed a data-driven multiple machine-learning (MML) framework delivered through two open-source R packages. The covMRVAgen1 software assembles covariates to 155,960 monthly groundwater levels from 57,695 wells; the mmlMRVAgen1 software trains Cubist and Random Forest models, blends them, and makes 1-kilometer gridded predictions of monthly potentiometric surfaces for the period January 1980–December 2022. The MML approach provides a methodological foundation for region-scale spatiotemporal groundwater prediction and uncertainty quantification, generating 90-percent prediction limits with appropriate empirical coverage. Model performance is acceptable, with a root-mean-square error of about 4.2 feet, standard deviation of 24.82 feet, and a normalized Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.973.

Arkansas, Illinois, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missou

Surface-wave relocation and characterization of the October 2023 tsunamigenic seismic unrest near Sofugan volcano, Izu Islands, Japan

A moderate-magnitude earthquake swarm occurred in the remote Izu Islands region of Japan between October 1 and 8, 2023. The swarm included 151 shallow earthquakes cataloged by the U.S. Geological Survey, which notably included a roughly 2.5-hr episode of 15 successive magnitude (M) < 5.5 earthquakes. Origin times were coincident with regionally recorded tsunami waves, but tsunamigenesis for moderate-magnitude earthquakes is uncommon, indicating that volcanic activity generated the ocean displacements. Leveraging a surface-wave relative relocation approach, we estimate precise epicentroid locations for the remote swarm. Final epicentroids and caldera analogs indicate a three-stage model to explain swarm activity: (a) caldera pressurization due to magma intrusion, (b) depressurization via dike propagation away from the caldera, and (c) eruption corresponding with caldera reactivation either by collapse or additional intrusion.

Sofugan volcano, Izu Islands

Groundwater drought in the United States: Spatial and temporal variability

Many communities and ecosystems in the United States that are dependent on groundwater are potentially adversely affected by groundwater drought. We computed yearly groundwater-drought metrics and mean groundwater levels at well locations across the conterminous United States (CONUS), using data from wells and remotely sensed and modeled Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Drought Monitor Data Assimilation (GRACE-DADM). We also modeled the probability of low or high human impact at each well location. The spatial distribution of groundwater-drought duration and severity from 2001 to 2020 for 1,510 wells shows longer maximum duration and higher maximum severity events in drier regions like the Southwest than in wetter regions like the Northeast. Based on 613 wells in CONUS from 1981 to 2020, there are many significant decreases in drought duration and severity in the Northeast and many significant increases in annual-mean groundwater levels. In contrast, there are many significant increases in drought metrics and decreases in mean water levels in parts of the Southeast. There are major differences in trends from 2001 to 2020 between well-based and GRACE-DADM-based groundwater metrics in some CONUS regions and a very low correlation between trends at individual locations across CONUS. A potential reason for this disparity is the low GRACE-DADM resolution (∼12 km) and the potential for a large amount of groundwater variation at the local scale. Also, GRACE-DADM represents shallow, unconfined aquifers which may not match the screened interval of the monitoring wells we evaluated. Large spatial gaps in long-term, high frequency, and quality-assured groundwater-well monitoring data present a challenge for understanding groundwater-drought variability across CONUS. Remote sensing tools such as GRACE can help but cannot fully replace well monitoring, as highlighted by our study results. Substantially more long-term monitoring wells would more accurately represent groundwater-drought trends and spatial variability across CONUS, particularly in western regions.

conterminous United States

The advantages of electric-grade heat storage in long closed-loop wells

Though long (e.g., tens of kilometers) closed-loop geothermal wells are under consideration for the extraction of subsurface heat, these wells might also serve as an efficient energy storage mechanism for electricity generation. Using a semi-analytic model solution, the potential for electric-grade heat storage as a function of ambient temperature (e.g., corresponds to depth of loop), well length, well diameter, and flow rate is evaluated. The following simplified cases for comparison of standard closed loop operation with energy storage operation were considered: [1] constant flow rate and constant temperature (90 °C) injection to represent the standard closed-loop base-case; and [2] constant flow rate and annual cycle sinusoidal temperature (90-150 °C) to represent seasonal (summer) charging while solar resources are peak. Initial temperatures for all scenarios considered herein are a uniform 175 °C. Electric-grade heat is assumed to be delivered whenever temperatures at the extraction point exceed 90 °C. For calculation purposes only, if temperature falls below 100 °C, it is assumed that heat delivered is sub-economic, so no electricity would be produced. For all scenarios, temperatures at the extraction well asymptotically approach the flow-weighted average injection temperature, but energy storage scenarios exhibited a damped time-varying signal that diminishes in magnitude with length of the loop. The asymptotic approach depends on initial temperatures in the rock and the heat extraction rate (a function of well diameter and flowrate). This analysis demonstrates that shorter closed loops can produce more electricity over time than longer closed-loops previously proposed for electricity production over typical engineering design lifetimes (e.g., 30 years). Although only a high-temperature scenario is considered herein, rock that is initially below boiling temperature would not host a standard closed-loop resource, but injection of hot water seasonally would asymptotically heat this low-temperature system to temperatures capable of electricity production. In other words, regardless of initial temperatures, closed loops could be used to store electricity with no critical minerals in the geothermal battery.

Conference Paper

Rupture process of the Mw7.0 December 5, 2024 Offshore Cape Mendocino earthquake

The Mw7.0 December 5, 2024 Offshore Cape Mendocino earthquake ruptured a km long portion of the east-west trending Mendocino fault zone (MFZ). In order to clarify the rupture process, we assemble three-component seismograms from regional seismic stations, horizontal coseismic displacement vectors derived from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) time series, and a Sentinel-1 ascending interferogram. These data are interpreted with a model of slip distributed on two vertical fault planes representative of the eastern MFZ and spanning the ~70 km length of the aftershock zone. Assuming right-lateral strike slip, we find that the rupture initiates in the oceanic mantle at 20-30 km depth and proceeds unilaterally updip and toward the east. Early aftershocks locate adjacent to the peak slip areas, tracking the coseismic rupture propagation from oceanic mantle to shallower depth and implying a significant role of static stress transfer in driving aftershocks in an ocean plate environment.

California

Ground magnetic and VLF studies at Midnite uranium mine, Stevens County, Washington

Ground magnetic and E-mode VLF measurements were made at more than 200 stations at the Midnite uranium Mine, Stevens County, Washington. The equipment was found to be light and foolproof, and each set of data was collected in one day, exclusive of surveying and marking the station points. The maps of contoured magnetic and VLF data resembled geologic maps of the area, showing many common features, as well as a few unique features on each map. Each showed some evidence of a small normal fault cutting the region; taken together, the evidence for this fault was judged to be much stronger, so that further structural details were inferred. Because of soil cover and inadequate outcrops, the presence of this fault had hitherto been unsuspected. A target area for further uranium mineralization north of the fault was indicated by this quick, inexpensive geophysical survey. The drilling program which Midnite Mine management had underway at that time had already outlined a mineralized zone in the indicated area.

Washington

Background and geologic model for the 2024 U.S. Geological Survey assessment of undiscovered conventional petroleum resources in the Norphlet Formation, U.S. Gulf Coast

The Upper Jurassic Norphlet Formation is a stratigraphic unit located in the subsurface of the United States Gulf coastal plain and offshore Gulf of America (Gulf of Mexico). The Norphlet consists of clastic sediments derived from the southern Appalachian highlands, and was deposited in a continental dryland setting on the margins of the early Gulf of America rift basin. The formation contains a variety of sedimentary facies, including facies representing updip alluvial fans, wadis, red beds, and a widespread erg, or eolian sand sea. The erg facies form the primary reservoirs from which hydrocarbons sourced from the overlying Smackover Formation are produced. Development of the Norphlet began in earnest in the late 1960s, with new discoveries, including large fields at Flomaton, Hatters Pond, and Mobile Bay, continuing through the 2000s–2010s with the discovery of major oil fields in the offshore Desoto Canyon area. Onshore, Norphlet hydrocarbon traps typically are faulted salt anticlines, although many fields also have a stratigraphic trapping component because of the preservation of dune-scale bedforms. Thermal maturity across the Norphlet play varies significantly with depth, resulting in oil production transitioning downdip to natural gas liquids production, then dry gas production; production depths reach to greater than 21,000 feet. A 2024 U.S. Geological Survey assessment divided the Norphlet into four conventional assessment units defined by the type and frequency of trapping mechanisms, sedimentology, and thermal maturity of each area, with little potential for hydrocarbon development observed west of the Mississippi River. Although petroleum resources in the Norphlet were revised downward, it is probable that significant resources remain to be discovered.

Alabama, Florida, Mississippi

Distinguishing natural sources from anthropogenic events in seismic data

As seismic data are increasingly used to investigate a diverse range of subsurface phenomena beyond regular fast-rupturing earthquakes (Peng and Gomberg, 2010; Beroza and Ide, 2011), it is important to acknowledge that human-generated ground vibrations may be mistaken for naturally generated subsurface processes (Larose et al., 2015; Li et al., 2018). Correct discrimination of natural processes from anthropogenic noise is especially pressing given the trend in seismic detection research toward automated algorithms and machine learning methods (Yoon et al., 2015; Kong et al., 2019;Mousavi and Beroza, 2022) and the growth in seismic data collection in new environments such as urban and industry settings (e.g., Díaz et al.,2017).

Seismological Research Letters

Explosive trachyte eruptions from the Al Efairia volcanic center in northern Harrat Rahat, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Harrat Rahat is an alkali basalt, continental, intraplate volcanic field located within the central-western part of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The northern quarter of Harrat Rahat contains evolved volcanic products that achieve trachyte compositions (>60 weight percent SiO 2 ). Within the Al Efairia volcanic center, pyroclastic-flow and -surge deposits that reflect explosive trachyte volcanism (and minor exposed lava domes that reflect effusive trachyte eruptions) sit at the surface as the youngest expression of volcanic activity within this part of the Harrat Rahat volcanic field. Five trachyte deposits emplaced explosively have been identified within the Al Efairia volcanic center based on geologic mapping, petrography, geochemistry, and paleomagnetism. These units are the trachytes of Um Rgaibah, Gura 5, Gura 4, Al Efairia, and Al Qayf, in descending stratigraphic order. Here, we present 14 40 Ar/ 39 Ar analyses from four of these units, which yield eruption ages of 4.2±5.2 thousand years (ka) for the trachyte of Um Rgaibah, 79.7±1.6 ka for the trachyte of Gura 5, 84.3±1.6 ka for the trachyte of Gura 4, and 88.0±1.8 ka for the trachyte of Al Efairia. The eruption age of the trachyte of Al Qayf has been constrained to between 410.3±3.4 and 418.8±1.9 ka using paleomagnetic correlations and 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages from overlying and underlying intermediate composition lava flows. Most of these trachytes have distinct geochemical compositions, petrographic characteristics, and directions of remanent magnetization. The exceptions are for the trachytes of Gura 4 and Gura 5, which overlap in their geochemical, petrographic, paleomagnetic, and geochronologic affinities. Based on these similarities, we interpret the trachytes of Gura 4 and Gura 5 to have erupted during a closely spaced (a few decades) time interval from the same magma batch but from craters that are >2 kilometers (km) apart. The eruption of the trachyte of Al Efairia at 88.0±1.8 ka is the result of a different magma batch that erupted a few thousand years prior to the trachytes of Gura 4 and Gura 5. The Al Efairia volcanic center is remarkably different from the Matan volcanic center located ~10 km to the north, which has also erupted young (<150 ka) trachytes. The Matan volcanic center has been shown to produce trachyte compositions only after eruption of basalt followed by intermediate lava flows, whereas only trachyte compositions have erupted within the Al Efairia volcanic center over this same time interval.

Al Efairia volcanic center, Harrat Rahat

A new groundwater energy transport model for the MODFLOW hydrologic simulator

Heat transport in the subsurface is an important aspect of research related to the effects of a warming climate on ecological services (i.e., cold-water refugia); the development of geothermal resources for energy banking schemes (i.e., aquifer thermal energy storage [ATES]); and the effects of temperature on other aspects of groundwater quality, such as nutrient cycling. Historically, simulation of heat transport using the MODFLOW groundwater simulator and related codes was performed by scaling the input parameters of a solute-transport model to emulate heat transport. However, that approach required additional pre- and post-processing of input and output and could not account for the variation in effective thermal storage and transport properties during transient, unsaturated flow, for example. True heat-transport capabilities in the context of MODFLOW were first introduced in a variant called USG-Transport. More recently, a new groundwater energy-transport (GWE) model type has been added to MODFLOW 6, the core version of the MODFLOW hydrologic simulator. GWE supports the simulation of heat transport on structured or unstructured grids as well as within and between features of advanced packages that represent streams, lakes, multi-aquifer wells, and the unsaturated zone. GWE is integrated within MODFLOW 6 and is accessible through the FloPy Python package and the MODFLOW 6 application programming interface (API). An example simulation demonstrates conduction between grid cells through both the water and the solid aquifer material, including thermal bleeding from saturated overburden cells into a groundwater flow field.

Groundwater

A practical framework for identifying genetic subpopulations and ESUs: Insights for IUCN assessments and broader management

Species conservation assessments evaluate extinction risk, and recovery potential, advancing species persistence through guiding resource prioritization and planning. Assessment frameworks, including the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List and Green Status of Species, typically focus on species as a whole. Importantly, they do not routinely account for genetically distinct units or do not have standardized methods of unit delineation. This limits the representation of genetically distinct components, including adaptive genetic diversity that underpins long-term resilience and recovery. Incorporating standardized within-species units like subpopulations and Evolutionarily Significant Units (ESUs) into species assessments could help address this oversight. However, identifying and delineating such units remain challenging, particularly when molecular data are limited. Here, we propose a flexible framework that integrates molecular and non-molecular evidence to identify both subpopulations and ESUs across taxa, providing a practical tool to incorporate within-species diversity into conservation assessments.

BioScience

The U.S. Geological Survey Ohio Water Microbiology Laboratory

The U.S. Geological Survey Ohio Water Microbiology Laboratory is a part of the Ohio-Kentucky-Indiana Water Science Center. The mission of the laboratory is to provide microbiological data of public health significance from surface waters, groundwaters, and sediments for a variety of study objectives. The laboratory conducts internal projects, works with external cooperators, and assists U.S. Geological Survey offices and National programs. The laboratory offers guidance, study design, and data interpretation expertise to collaborators, all following rigorous quality control and quality assurance procedures.

Fact Sheet

A high-resolution 3-D P-wave velocity structure of the south-central Cascadia subduction zone from wide-angle shore-crossing seismic refraction data

This study addresses a significant gap in understanding the features of the south-central Cascadia subduction zone, a region characterized by complex geologic, tectonic, and seismic transitions both offshore and onshore. Unlike other segments along this margin, this area lacks a 3-D velocity model to delineate its structural and geological features on a fine scale. To address this void, we developed a high-resolution 3-D P-wave velocity model using active source seismic data from ship-borne seismic shots recorded on temporary and permanent onshore seismic stations and ocean-bottom seismometers. Our model shows velocity variations across the region with distinct velocity-depth profiles for the Siletz, Franciscan, and Klamath terranes in the overlying plate. We identified seaward dipping high-velocity static backstops associated with the Siletz and Klamath terranes, situated near the shoreline and further inland, respectively. Regions of reduced crustal velocity are associated with crustal faults. Moreover, there is significant along-strike depth variation in the subducting slab, which is about 4 km deeper near the thick, dense Siletz terrane and becomes shallower near the predominantly less-dense Franciscan terrane. This highlights a sudden tectonic and geologic transition at the southern boundary of the Siletz terrane. Our velocity model also indicates slightly increased hydration, though still minimal, in both the oceanic crust and the upper mantle of the subducting plate compared to other parts of the margin.

British Columbia, California, Oregon, Washington

Effects of waste-disposal practices on ground-water quality at five poultry (broiler) farms in north-central Florida, 1992-93

Waste-disposal areas such as chicken-house floors, litter stockpiles, fields that receive applications of litter, and dead-chicken pits are potential sources of nitrates and other chemical constituents in downward-percolating recharge water. Broiler- farms in north-central Florida are concentrated in a region where the Upper Floridan aquifer is unconfined and susceptible to contamination. Eighteen monitoring wells installed at five sites were sampled quarterly from March 1992 through January 1993. Increases in median concentrations of constituents relative to an upgradient well were used to determine the source of the nitrate at two sites. At these sites, increases in the median concentrations of nitrate as nitrogen in ground water in the vicinity of waste-disposal areas at these sites were: 5.4 mg/L for one chicken house; 9.0 mg/L for a second chicken house; 2.0 mg/L for a fallow field that received an application of litter; and, 2.0 mg/L for a dead-chicken pit. At the three remaining sites where the direction of local ground-water flow could not be ascertained, the sources of concentrations of nitrate and other constituents could not be determined. However, median nitrate concentrations in the vicinity of waste-disposal areas at these sites were: 45.5 mg/L for a set of two chicken houses; 3.0 mg/L for a stockpile area; and 2.1 mg/L for a hayfield that received an application of litter. The nitrate concentration in ground water in the vicinity of a field that had previously received heavy applications of litter increased from 3.0 mg/L to 105 mg/L approximately 4 months after receiving an application of commercial fertilizer. Increases in concentrations of organic nitrogen in ground water in the vicinity of waste-disposal areas may be related to the decomposition of litter and subsequent movement with downward percolating recharge water.

Florida

King Rails in southeastern Arkansas are majority resident

King Rails ( Rallus elegans ), a declining species of secretive marsh bird, have a mixed migratory strategy, with some individuals migrating and some being year-round residents. Determining the distribution of migratory versus resident King Rails is critical to guiding habitat management and assessing risks to populations. We examined the migratory status of adult King Rails at the Choctaw West Wildlife Management Area in southeastern Arkansas, the only known site in Arkansas with multiple breeding pairs. Of the 23 adult King Rails we tagged in 2022 and 2023, two birds migrated away from the local area, one in each year. One migrated 145 km, and the other 450 km. Our findings suggest that the line between the migratory and resident range of Arkansas King Rails could be north of our site.

Arkansas

Bascom Laser Diffraction Sedimentology Laboratory, Reston, Virginia

Introduction At the Bascom Laser Diffraction Sedimentology Laboratory, which is located in the Florence Bascom Geoscience Center at U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) headquarters in Reston, Virginia, scientists use physical sedimentology and particle characterization techniques to conduct detailed sediment characterization. Scientists address research problems in collaboration with other USGS science centers, State geological surveys, commercial industry, universities, and other partners. Laboratory capabilities include laser diffractometry for quantitative particle-size analysis, portable x-ray fluorescence (XRF) analysis for determining elemental abundances in rock or sediment samples, petrographic analysis of geologic media, and mechanical sieve analysis. These methods are used to analyze soil and sediment core material from terrestrial, marine, and lacustrine environments, surface sediments from coastal regions, and calcareous materials. Work done by the laboratory supports geologic mapping, resource assessments, land change studies, and geohazard analyses.

Fact Sheet

A Lake Charr pangenome reveals highly conserved Ohnologs as drivers of phenotypic diversity

Whole-genome duplication (WGD) is hypothesized to spur evolutionary diversification by producing genome-wide duplicate gene sets (Ohnologs) that are initially functionally redundant but can diverge markedly as the effects of relaxed selection accumulate over time. However, the underlying mechanisms remain unclear, in part because genomic studies often reconstruct Ohnolog evolution over millions of years, during which subsequent mutations can obscure deep-time signals. Investigating the relationship between Ohnolog evolution and diversification on a contemporary timescale offers clearer insights. We explore this relationship in Lake Charr ( Salvelinus namaycush ), where ∼10% of genes are retained highly conserved polyploid duplicates following the Salmonid-Specific Fourth Round WGD. Using 31 chromosome-level assemblies of Lake Charr from morphologically and ecologically diverse populations, joined into a pangenome graph, we characterized 189,555 structural variants (SVs) that were significantly less likely to affect genes retained as sequence-conserved Ohnolog pairs, nuancing the hypothesis that gene redundancy, relaxed selection, and functional diversification are intertwined. However, we found that SVs affecting such conserved Ohnologs may be potent drivers of adaptive evolution. Notably, we identified a putative 938-Kb interchromosomal translocation containing 25 genes with highly conserved Ohnologs in a paralogous (but untranslocated) genomic block. This putative translocation appears to have facilitated Ohnolog divergence in ankrd11 and hp , genes putatively linked to craniofacial and lipid metabolic diversity in sympatric Lake Superior morphs. This research reveals that conserved Ohnologs previously presumed to be redundant remain a reservoir for adaptive change.

BioRxiv

The distribution of bromide in water in the Floridan aquifer system, Duval County, northeastern Florida

Although Duval County, Florida, has ample ground-water resources for public supply, the potential exists for a problem with excessive disinfectant by-products. These disinfectant by-products result from the treatment of raw water containing low concentrations of bromide and naturally occurring organic compounds. Because of this potential problem, the relation of bromide concentrations to aquifer tapped, well location and depth, and chemical characteristics of water in the Floridan aquifer system underlying Duval County were studied to determine if these relations could be applied to delineate water with low-bromide concentrations for future supplies. In 1992, water samples from 106 wells that tap the Floridan aquifer system were analyzed for bromide and major dissolved constituents. A comparison of bromide concentrations from the 1992 sampling with data from earlier studies (1979-80) indicates that higher bromide concentrations were detected during the earlier studies. The difference between the old and new data is probably because of a change in analytical methodology in the analysis of samples. Bromide concentrations exceeded the detection limit (0.10 milligrams per liter) in water from 28 of the 106 wells (26 percent) sampled in 1992. The maximum concentration was 0.56 milligrams per liter. There were no relations between bromide and major dissolved constituents, well depth, or aquifer tapped that would be useful for determining bromide concentrations. Areal patterns of bromide occurrence are not clearly defined, but areas with relatively high bromide concentrations tend to be located in a triangular area near the community of Sunbeam, Florida, and along the St. Johns River throughout Duval County.

Florida