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At least 1,315 records · Page 73Linked to original sources

USGS2014

The key role of dry days in changing regional climate and precipitation regimes

Future changes in the number of dry days per year can either reinforce or counteract projected increases in daily precipitation intensity as the climate warms. We analyze climate model projected changes in the number of dry days using 28 coupled global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 5 (CMIP5). We find that the Mediterranean Sea region, parts of Central and South America, and western Indonesia could experience up to 30 more dry days per year by the end of this century. We illustrate how changes in the number of dry days and the precipitation intensity on precipitating days combine to produce changes in annual precipitation, and show that over much of the subtropics the change in number of dry days dominates the annual changes in precipitation and accounts for a large part of the change in interannual precipitation variability.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2022

Disentangling direct and indirect effects of extreme events on coastal wetland communities

One of the primary ways in which climate change will impact coastal freshwater wetlands is through changes in the frequency, intensity, timing and distribution of extreme weather events. Disentangling the direct and indirect mechanisms of population- and community-level responses to extreme events is vital to predicting how species composition of coastal wetlands will change under future conditions. We extended static structural equation modelling approaches to incorporate system dynamics in a multi-year multispecies occupancy model to quantify the effects of extreme weather events on a coastal freshwater wetland system. We used data from an 8-year study (2009–2016) on St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge in Florida, USA, to quantify species-specific and community-level changes in amphibian and fish occupancy associated with two flooding events in 2012 and 2013. We examine how physical changes to the landscape, including potential changes in salinity and increased wetland connectivity, may have contributed to or exacerbated the effects of these extreme weather events on the biota of isolated coastal wetlands. We provide evidence that the primary effects of flooding on the amphibian community were through indirect mechanisms via changes in the composition of the sympatric fish community that may have had lethal (i.e. through direct predation) or non-lethal (i.e. through direct or indirect competitive interactions) effects. In addition, we have shown that amphibian species differed in their sensitivity to direct flooding effects and indirect changes in the fish community and wetland-specific conductance, which led to variable responses across the community. These effects led to the overall decline in amphibian species richness from 2009 to 2016, suggesting that wetland-breeding amphibian communities on St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge may not be resilient to predicted changes in coastal disturbance regimes because of climate change. Understanding both direct and indirect effects, as well as species interactions, is important for predicting the effects of a changing climate on individual species, communities and ecosystems.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗

USGS2025

Challenges and priorities for climate-informed invasive species management across multiple scales

In recent decades, substantial evidence has accumulated regarding the effects of climate change on the establishment, spread, and impact of invasive species. While the importance of incorporating climate change into invasive species management and policy is increasingly recognized, practitioner experiences and perspectives are often overlooked. Consequently, invasive species research may be misaligned with the needs of managers and the threats of climate change. Here, we compare survey responses from a boundary-spanning organization, the Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change (RISCC) Management Network, to identify common priorities and challenges in managing invasive species in a changing climate in the United States. Survey respondents reported that 22% of management and research time is dedicated to emerging invasive species threats. Common barriers to climate-informed invasive species management include limited time, funding, and personnel. Understanding how climate change may impact control strategies was consistently identified as a high priority for invasive species management, followed by identifying resilient ecosystems and range-shifting taxa. These results demonstrate the critical need for stronger researcher-practitioner networks and greater investment in research and policy topics that more closely align with management needs to address the interacting stressors of invasive species and climate change.

Conservation Science and Practice↗

USGS2013

Forest ecosystems: Vegetation, disturbance, and economics

Forests cover about 47% of the Northwest (NW–Washington, Oregon, and Idaho) (Smith et al. 2009, fig. 5.1, table 5.1). The impacts of current and future climate change on NW forest ecosystems are a product of the sensitivities of ecosystem processes to climate and the degree to which humans depend on and interact with those systems. Forest ecosystem structure and function, particularly in relatively unmanaged forests where timber harvest and other land use have smaller effects, is sensitive to climate change because climate has a strong influence on ecosystem processes. Climate can affect forest structure directly through its control of plan physiology and life history (establishment, individual growth, productivity, and morality) or indirectly through its control of disturbance (fire, insects, disease). As climate changes, many forest processes will be affected, altering ecosystem services such as timber production and recreation. These changes have socioeconomic implications (e.g. for timber economies) and will require changes to current management of forests. Climate and management will interact to determine the forests of the future, and the scientific basis for adaptation to climate change in forests thus depends significantly on how forests will be affected.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2003

Contribution of climate-driven change in continental water storage to recent sea-level rise

Using a global model of continental water balance, forced by interannual variations in precipitation and near-surface atmospheric temperature for the period 1981-1998, we estimate the sea-level changes associated with climate-driven changes in storage of water as snowpack, soil water, and ground water; storage in ice sheets and large lakes is not considered. The 1981-1998 trend is estimated to be 0.12 mm/yr, and substantial interannual fluctuations are inferred; for 1993-1998, the trend is 0.25 mm/yr. At the decadal time scale, the terrestrial contribution to eustatic (i.e., induced by mass exchange) sea-level rise is significantly smaller than the estimated steric (i.e., induced by density changes) trend for the same period, but is not negligibly small. In the model the sea-level rise is driven mainly by a downtrend in continental precipitation during the study period, which we believe was generated by natural variability in the climate system.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

USGS2019

Natural resource management decision-making under climate uncertainty: Building social-ecological resilience in southwestern Colorado

The goal of this project was to facilitate climate change adaptation that contributes to social-ecological resilience, ecosystem and species conservation, and sustainable human communities in southwestern Colorado. The team developed and piloted integrated adaptation planning tools and principles that merge the strengths of the iterative scenario process, the Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) planning framework, institutional analysis, and climate modeling. These tools and principles generated practical strategies and scientific knowledge to advance climate change adaptation in both the Gunnison River Basin and San Juan River Basin and, potentially, other landscapes. A key objective of this project was to work with decision-makers to develop social-ecological adaptation strategies and coordinate actions to reduce the impacts of a changing climate on nature and people. To accomplish this, the project blended science (biophysical and social) and participatory approaches to integrate expert knowledge, land management decision making, and local needs. These adaptation strategies and their creation process were documented by the project team to assist communities and scientists elsewhere who are grappling with the challenges posed by climate change.

Colorado↗

USGS2021

Developing a set of indicators to identify, monitor, and track impacts and change in forests of the United States

United States forestland is an important ecosystem type, land cover, land use, and economic resource that is facing several drivers of change including climatic. Because of its significance, forestland was identified through the National Climate Assessment (NCA) as a key sector and system of concern to be included in a system of climate indicators as part of a sustained assessment effort. Here, we describe 11 informative core indicators of forests and climate change impacts with metrics available or nearly available for use in the NCA efforts. The recommended indicators are based on a comprehensive conceptual model which recognizes forests as a land use, an ecosystem, and an economic sector. The indicators cover major forest attributes such as extent, structural components such as biomass, functions such as growth and productivity, and ecosystem services such as biodiversity and outdoor recreation. Interactions between humans and forests are represented through indicators focused on the wildland-urban interface, cost to mitigate wildfire risk, and energy produced from forest-based biomass. Selected indicators also include drought and disturbance from both wildfires and biotic agents. The forest indicators presented are an initial set that will need further refinement in coordination with other NCA indicator teams. Our effort ideally will initiate the collection of critical measurements and observations and lead to additional research on forest-climate indicators.

Climatic Change↗

USGS2020

The role of warm, dry summers and variation in snowpack on phytoplankton dynamics in high-elevation lakes

Abstract Climate change is altering biogeochemical, metabolic, and ecological functions in lakes across the globe. Historically, mountain lakes in temperate regions have been unproductive due to brief ice-free seasons, a snowmelt-driven hydrograph, cold temperatures, and steep topography with low vegetation and soil cover. We tested the relative importance of winter and summer weather, watershed characteristics, and water chemistry as drivers of phytoplankton dynamics. Using boosted regression tree models for 28 mountain lakes in Colorado we examined regional, intra-seasonal, and inter-annual drivers of variability in chlorophyll a as a proxy for lake phytoplankton. Phytoplankton biomass was inversely related to the maximum snow water equivalent (SWE) of the previous winter, as others have found. However, even in years with average SWE, summer precipitation extremes and warming enhanced phytoplankton biomass. Peak seasonal phytoplankton biomass coincided with the warmest water temperatures and lowest nitrogen-to-phosphorus ratios. While links between snowpack, lake temperature, nutrients, and organic matter dynamics are increasingly recognized as critical drivers of change in high elevation lakes, our results highlight the additional influence of summer conditions on lake productivity in response to ongoing changes in climate. Continued changes in the timing, type, and magnitude of precipitation in combination with other global change drivers (e.g., nutrient deposition) will affect production in mountain lakes, potentially shifting these historically oligotrophic lakes toward new ecosystem states. Ultimately, a deeper understanding of these drivers and pattern at multiple scales will allow us to better anticipate ecological consequences of global change.

Colorado↗

USGS2022

Projected stream fish community risk to climate impacts in the Northeastern and Midwestern United States

Climate change is expected to alter stream fish habitat potentially leading to changes in the composition and distribution of fish communities. In the Northeastern and Midwestern United States we identified the distribution and characteristics of those fish communities most and least at risk of experiencing changes in climate which deviate from the climate they are associated with. We classified stream fish communities based on a suite of climate and environmental variables with multivariate regression trees under both recent and future conditions based on eight climate models. Our findings showed that some areas, such as the majority of the Illinois, Wisconsin, and Iowa), have high levels of risk of change in stream class, while much of Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Eastern Ohio, Southern Michigan, and the Atlantic Coast are at relatively low risk. Stream class shifts ranged from over 75% of segments lost (associated with cooler temperatures) to gains of over 40% (associated with warmer temperatures). Common warmwater species such as green sunfish ( Lepomis cyanellus ), bluegill ( Lepomis macrochirus ) and largemouth bass ( Micropterus salmoides ) are expected to have the largest net gains in associated stream classes, while species associated with cooler streams such as Southern redbelly dace ( Chrosomus erythrogaster ), slimy sculpin ( Cottus cognatus ), and Eastern blacknose dace ( Rhinichthys atratulus ) were expected to experience the largest proportional losses. By pairing our climate risk predictions with other stressors such anthropogenic land use, habitat fragmentation, and water quality impairment, we identified opportunities for preservation (low risk due to all threats), restoration (low risk due to climate, high risk due to other stressors), and adaptation (high climate risk with low risk from other stressors). Understanding which communities are at risk due to climate change will aid in developing adaptation strategies to help sustain them in the future.

Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Ke↗

USGS1978

Climate variation and its effects on our land and water : Part A, Earth science in climate research

To better coordinate information being generated by the U.S. Geological Survey, a workshop was convened near Denver, Colo., on December 7-9, 1976, to exchange ideas about research that is oriented toward climate, climate variation, and the effects of climate on the Nation 's land and water resources. This is the first circular of a three-part report resulting from that workshop. Hydrologic records provide information to the earth scientist about the responses of ground water, surface water, and glaciers to climatic change; geologic sequences provide evidence of earth-surface water, and glaciers to climatic change; geologic sequences provide evidence of earth-surface responses to climatic change; biological records yield information about the effects of climatic change on the Earth 's biota; archeological records tell us where and how man was able to live under changing climatic conditions; and historical records allow the specific effects of short-term changes in climate to be accurately documented. The interrelation between present and past geologic environments, various methods of study , and the span of time over which the results can be applied are shown in a table. (Woodard-USGS)

Circular↗

USGS1978

Climate variation and its effects on our land and water : Part B, Current research by the Geological Survey

Circular↗

USGS1978

Climate variation and its effects on our land and water : Part C, Geological Survey climate plan

Circular↗

USGS2009

Projected climate-induced faunal change in the Western Hemisphere

Climate change is predicted to be one of the greatest drivers of ecological change in the coming century. Increases in temperature over the last century have clearly been linked to shifts in species distributions. Given the magnitude of projected future climatic changes, we can expect even larger range shifts in the coming century. These changes will, in turn, alter ecological communities and the functioning of ecosystems. Despite the seriousness of predicted climate change, the uncertainty in climate-change projections makes it difficult for conservation managers and planners to proactively respond to climate stresses. To address one aspect of this uncertainty, we identified predictions of faunal change for which a high level of consensus was exhibited by different climate models. Specifically, we assessed the potential effects of 30 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) future-climate simulations on the geographic ranges of 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians in the Western Hemisphere. Eighty percent of the climate projections based on a relatively low greenhouse-gas emissions scenario result in the local loss of at least 10% of the vertebrate fauna over much of North and South America. The largest changes in fauna are predicted for the tundra, Central America, and the Andes Mountains where, assuming no dispersal constraints, specific areas are likely to experience over 90% turnover, so that faunal distributions in the future will bear little resemblance to those of today. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecology↗

USGS2018

Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity

Biodiversity —the variety of life on Earth—provides vital services that support and improve human health and well-being. Ecosystems, which are composed of living things that interact with the physical environment, provide numerous essential benefits to people. These benefits, termed ecosystem services, encompass four primary functions: provisioning materials, such as food and fiber; regulating critical parts of the environment, such as water quality and erosion control; providing cultural services, such as recreational opportunities and aesthetic value; and providing supporting services, such as nutrient cycling. Climate change poses many threats and potential disruptions to ecosystems and biodiversity, as well as to the ecosystem services on which people depend. Building on the findings of the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3), this chapter provides additional evidence that climate change is significantly impacting ecosystems and biodiversity in the United States. Mounting evidence also demonstrates that climate change is increasingly compromising the ecosystem services that sustain human communities, economies, and well-being. Both human and natural systems respond to change, but their ability to respond and thrive under new conditions is determined by their adaptive capacity, which may be inadequate to keep pace with rapid change. Our understanding of climate change impacts and the responses of biodiversity and ecosystems has improved since NCA3. The expected consequences of climate change will vary by region, species, and ecosystem type. Management responses are evolving as new tools and approaches are developed and implemented; however, they may not be able to overcome the negative impacts of climate change. Although efforts have been made since NCA3 to incorporate climate adaptation strategies into natural resource management, significant work remains to comprehensively implement climate-informed planning. This chapter presents additional evidence for climate change impacts to biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services, reflecting increased confidence in the findings reported in NCA3. The chapter also illustrates the complex and interrelated nature of climate change impacts to biodiversity, ecosystems, and the services they provide.

Report↗

USGS2020

Combining physical and species‐based approaches improves refugia identification

Climate‐change refugia – locations likely to facilitate species persistence under climate change – are increasingly important components of conservation planning. Recent approaches for identifying refugia at broad scales include identifying regions that are projected to experience less severe changes (climatic exposure), that contain a diversity of physical and topographic features (environmental diversity), and that either retain or remain close to suitable climatic conditions (climate tracking, including both “species‐neutral” and species‐based approaches). We compared the degree of agreement between these approaches – with respect to their spatial coverage and other characteristics – across much of North America. This analysis found that approaches based on environmental diversity and species‐neutral climatic gradients both favored topographically complex regions, whereas climatic exposure and species‐based approaches identified regions with a range of topographic characteristics. Species‐based approaches targeting specific habitat groups identified unique regions missed by other approaches, emphasizing the importance of asking the question “refugia for what?” when prioritizing refugia. Our results highlight the necessity of including climatic exposure and species‐based information in addition to topographic diversity and climatic gradients in refugia analyses.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

USGS2006

Predicting woodrat ( Neotoma ) responses to anthropogenic warming from studies of the palaeomidden record

Aim The influence of anthropogenic climate change on organisms is an area of great scientific concern. Increasingly there is recognition that abrupt climate transitions have occurred over the late Quaternary; studies of these shifts may yield insights into likely biotic responses to contemporary warming. Here, we review research undertaken over the past decade investigating the response of Neotoma (woodrats) body size and distribution to climate change over the late Quaternary (the last 40,000 years). By integrating information from woodrat palaeomiddens, historical museum specimens and field studies of modern populations, we identify potential evolutionary responses to climate change occurring over a variety of temporal and spatial scales. Specifically, we characterize climatic thresholds in the past that led to local species extirpation and/or range alterations rather than in situ adaptation, and apply them to anticipate potential biotic responses to anthropogenic climate change. Location Middens were collected at about 55 sites scattered across the western United States, ranging from about 34 to 46° N and about 104 to 116° W, respectively. Data for modern populations were drawn from studies conducted in Death Valley, California, Missoula, Montana and the Sevilleta LTER site in central New Mexico. Methods We analysed faecal pellets from midden series collected at numerous cave sites across the western United States. From these we estimated body mass using techniques validated in earlier studies. We compared body size fluctuations at different elevations in different regions and integrated these results with studies investigating temperature–body size tradeoffs in modern animals. We also quantify the rapidity of the size changes over the late Quaternary to estimate the evolutionary capacity of woodrats to deal with predicted rates of anthropogenic climate change over the next century. Results We find remarkable similarities across the geographical range to late Quaternary climate change. In the middle of the geographical range woodrats respond in accordance to Bergmann's rule: colder climatic conditions select for larger body size and warmer conditions select for smaller body size. Patterns are more complicated at range boundaries, and local environmental conditions influence the observed response. In general, woodrat body size fluctuates with approximately the same amplitude and frequency as climate; there is a significant and positive correlation between woodrat body size and generalized climate proxies (such as ice core records). Woodrats have achieved evolutionary rates of change equal to or greater than those needed to adapt in situ to anthropogenic climate change. Main conclusions In situ body size evolution is a likely outcome of climate change, and such shifts are part of a normal spectrum of adaptation. Woodrats appear to be subject to ongoing body size selection in response to fluctuating environmental conditions. Allometric considerations suggest that these shifts in body size lead to substantial changes in the physiology, life history and ecology of woodrats, and on their direct and indirect interactions with other organisms in the ecosystem. Our work highlights the importance of a finely resolved and long-term record in understanding biotic responses to climatic shifts.

Journal of Biogeography↗

USGS1997

Coastal wetlands and global change: overview

The potential impacts of climate change are of great practical concern to those interested in coastal wetland resources. Among the areas of greatest risk in the United States are low-lying coastal habitats with easily eroded substrates which occur along the northern Gulf of Mexico and southeast Atlantic coasts. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) have identified coastal wetlands as ecosystems most vulnerable to direct, large-scale impacts of climate change, primarily because of their sensitivity to increases in sea-level rise.

California;Florida;Louisiana;North Carolina;Texas↗

USGS2012

U.S. Department of the Interior Southeast Climate Science Center Science and Operational Plan

Climate change challenges many of the basic assumptions routinely used by conservation planners and managers, including the identification and prioritization of areas for conservation based on current environmental conditions and the assumption those conditions could be controlled by management actions. Climate change will likely alter important ecosystem drivers (temperature, precipitation, and sea-level rise) and make it difficult, if not impossible, to maintain current environmental conditions into the future. Additionally, the potential for future conservation of non-conservation lands may be affected by climate change, which further complicates resource planning. Potential changes to ecosystem drivers, as a result of climate change, highlight the need to develop and adapt effective conservation strategies to cope with the effects of climate and landscape change. The U.S. Congress, recognized the potential effects of climate change and authorized the creation of the U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) in 2008. The directive of the NCCWSC is to produce science that supports resource-management agencies as they anticipate and adapt to the effects of climate change on fish, wildlife, and their habitats. On September 14, 2009, U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) Secretary Ken Salazar signed Secretarial Order 3289 (amended February 22, 2010), which expanded the mandate of the NCCWSC to address climate-change-related impacts on all DOI resources. Secretarial Order 3289 "Addressing the Impacts of Climate Change on America's Water, Land, and Other Natural and Cultural Resources," established the foundation of two partner-based conservation science entities: Climate Science Centers (CSC) and their primary partners, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCC). CSCs and LCCs are the Department-wide approach for applying scientific tools to increase the understanding of climate change, and to coordinate an effective response to its impacts on tribes and the land, water, ocean, fish and wildlife, and cultural-heritage resources that DOI manages. The NCCWSC is establishing a network of eight DOI CSCs (Alaska, Southeast, Northwest, North Central, Pacific Islands, Southwest, Northeast, and South Central) that will work with a variety of partners and stakeholders to provide resource managers the tools and information they need to help them anticipate and adapt conservation planning and design for projected climate change. The Southeast CSC, a federally led research collaboration hosted by North Carolina State University, was established in 2010. The Southeast CSC brings together the expertise of federal and university scientists to address climate-change priority needs of federal, state, non-governmental, and tribal resource managers. This document is the first draft of a science and operational plan for the Southeast CSC. The document describes operational considerations, provides the context for climate-change impacts in the Southeastern United States, and establishes six major science themes the Southeast CSC will address in collaboration with partners. This document is intended to be reevaluated and modified as partner needs change.

Open-File Report↗