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At least 1,315 records · Page 73Linked to original sources
USGS2011

USDA conservation program and practice effects on wetland ecosystem services in the Prairie Pothole Region

Implementation of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) and Wetlands Reserve Program (WRP) has resulted in the restoration of >2 million ha of wetland and grassland habitats in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR). Restoration of habitats through these programs provides diverse ecosystem services to society, but few investigators have evaluated the environmental benefits achieved by these programs. We describe changes in wetland processes, functions, and ecosystem services that occur when wetlands and adjacent uplands on agricultural lands are restored through Farm Bill conservation programs. At the scale of wetland catchments, projects have had positive impacts on water storage, reduction in sedimentation and nutrient loading, plant biodiversity, carbon sequestration, and wildlife habitat. However, lack of information on the geographic location of restored catchments relative to landscape‐level factors (e.g., watershed, proximity to rivers and lakes) limits interpretation of ecosystem services that operate at multiple scales such as floodwater retention, water quality improvement, and wildlife habitat suitability. Considerable opportunity exists for the USDA to incorporate important landscape factors to better target conservation practices and programs to optimize diverse ecosystem services. Restoration of hydrologic processes within wetlands (e.g., hydroperiod, water level dynamics) also requires a better understanding of the influence of conservation cover composition and structure, and management practices that occur in uplands surrounding wetlands. Although conservation programs have enhanced delivery of ecosystem services in the PPR, the use of programs to provide long‐term critical ecosystem services is uncertain because when contracts (especially CRP) expire, economic incentives may favor conversion of land to crop production, rather than reenrollment. As demands for agricultural products (food, fiber, biofuel) increase, Farm Bill conservation programs will become increasingly important to ensure provisioning of ecosystem services to society, especially in agriculturally dominated landscapes. Thus, continued development and support for conservation programs legislated through the Farm Bill will require a more comprehensive understanding of wetland ecological services to better evaluate program achievements relative to conservation goals.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2010

On the specification of structural equation models for ecological systems

The use of structural equation modeling (SEM) is often motivated by its utility for investigating complex networks of relationships, but also because of its promise as a means of representing theoretical concepts using latent variables. In this paper, we discuss characteristics of ecological theory and some of the challenges for proper specification of theoretical ideas in structural equation models (SE models). In our presentation, we describe some of the requirements for classical latent variable models in which observed variables (indicators) are interpreted as the effects of underlying causes. We also describe alternative model specifications in which indicators are interpreted as having causal influences on the theoretical concepts. We suggest that this latter nonclassical specification (which involves another variable type—the composite) will often be appropriate for ecological studies because of the multifaceted nature of our theoretical concepts. In this paper, we employ the use of meta‐models to aid the translation of theory into SE models and also to facilitate our ability to relate results back to our theories. We demonstrate our approach by showing how a synthetic theory of grassland biodiversity can be evaluated using SEM and data from a coastal grassland. In this example, the theory focuses on the responses of species richness to abiotic stress and disturbance, both directly and through intervening effects on community biomass. Models examined include both those based on classical forms (where each concept is represented using a single latent variable) and also ones in which the concepts are recognized to be multifaceted and modeled as such. To address the challenge of matching SE models with the conceptual level of our theory, two approaches are illustrated, compositing and aggregation. Both approaches are shown to have merits, with the former being preferable for cases where the multiple facets of a concept have widely differing effects in the system and the latter being preferable where facets act together consistently when influencing other parts of the system. Because ecological theory characteristically deals with concepts that are multifaceted, we expect the methods presented in this paper will be useful for ecologists wishing to use SEM.

Ecological Monographs↗
USGS2011

Hierarchical modeling of an invasive spread: The eurasian collared-dove streptopelia decaocto in the United States

Invasive species are regularly claimed as the second threat to biodiversity. To apply a relevant response to the potential consequences associated with invasions (e.g., emphasize management efforts to prevent new colonization or to eradicate the species in places where it has already settled), it is essential to understand invasion mechanisms and dynamics. Quantifying and understanding what influences rates of spatial spread is a key research area for invasion theory. In this paper, we develop a model to account for occupancy dynamics of an invasive species. Our model extends existing models to accommodate several elements of invasive processes; we chose the framework of hierarchical modeling to assess site occupancy status during an invasion. First, we explicitly accounted for spatial structure and how distance among sites and position relative to one another affect the invasion spread. In particular, we accounted for the possibility of directional propagation and provided a way of estimating the direction of this possible spread. Second, we considered the influence of local density on site occupancy. Third, we decided to split the colonization process into two subprocesses, initial colonization and recolonization, which may be ground-breaking because these subprocesses may exhibit different relationships with environmental variations (such as density variation) or colonization history (e.g., initial colonization might facilitate further colonization events). Finally, our model incorporates imperfection in detection, which might be a source of substantial bias in estimating population parameters. We focused on the case of the Eurasian Collared-Dove (Streptopelia decaocto) and its invasion of the United States since its introduction in the early 1980s, using data from the North American BBS (Breeding Bird Survey). The Eurasian Collared-Dove is one of the most successful invasive species, at least among terrestrial vertebrates. Our model provided estimation of the spread direction consistent with empirical observations. Site persistence probability exhibits a quadratic response to density. We also succeeded at detecting differences in the relationship between density and initial colonization vs. recolonization probabilities. We provide a map of sites that may be colonized in the future as an example of possible practical application of our work. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2011

Local richness along gradients in the Siskiyou herb flora: R. H. Whittaker revisited

In his classic study in the Siskiyou Mountains (Oregon, USA), one of the most botanically rich forested regions in North America, R. H. Whittaker (1960 ) foreshadowed many modern ideas on the multivariate control of local species richness along environmental gradients related to productivity. Using a structural equation model to analyze his data, which were never previously statistically analyzed, we demonstrate that Whittaker was remarkably accurate in concluding that local herb richness in these late‐seral forests is explained to a large extent by three major abiotic gradients (soils, topography, and elevation), and in turn, by the effects of these gradients on tree densities and the numbers of individual herbs. However, while Whittaker also clearly appreciated the significance of large‐scale evolutionary and biogeographic influences on community composition, he did not fully articulate the more recent concept that variation in the species richness of local communities could be explained in part by variation in the sizes of regional species pools. Our model of his data is among the first to use estimates of regional species pool size to explain variation in local community richness along productivity‐related gradients. We find that regional pool size, combined with a modest number of other interacting abiotic and biotic factors, explains most of the variation in local herb richness in the Siskiyou biodiversity hotspot.

Oregon↗
USGS2009

Guiding concepts for park and wilderness stewardship in an era of global environmental change

The major challenge to stewardship of protected areas is to decide where, when, and how to intervene in physical and biological processes, to conserve what we value in these places. To make such decisions, planners and managers must articulate more clearly the purposes of parks, what is valued, and what needs to be sustained. A key aim for conservation today is the maintenance and restoration of biodiversity, but a broader range of values are also likely to be considered important, including ecological integrity, resilience, historical fidelity (ie the ecosystem appears and functions much as it did in the past), and autonomy of nature. Until recently, the concept of “naturalness” was the guiding principle when making conservation‐related decisions in park and wilderness ecosystems. However, this concept is multifaceted and often means different things to different people, including notions of historical fidelity and autonomy from human influence. Achieving the goal of nature conservation intended for such areas requires a clear articulation of management objectives, which must be geared to the realities of the rapid environmental changes currently underway. We advocate a pluralistic approach that incorporates a suite of guiding principles, including historical fidelity, autonomy of nature, ecological integrity, and resilience, as well as managing with humility. The relative importance of these guiding principles will vary, depending on management goals and ecological conditions.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2011

Effects of nitrogen deposition and empirical nitrogen critical loads for ecoregions of the United States

Human activity in the last century has led to a significant increase in nitrogen (N) emissions and atmospheric deposition. This N deposition has reached a level that has caused or is likely to cause alterations to the structure and function of many ecosystems across the United States. One approach for quantifying the deposition of pollution that would be harmful to ecosystems is the determination of critical loads. A critical load is defined as the input of a pollutant below which no detrimental ecological effects occur over the long-term according to present knowledge. The objectives of this project were to synthesize current research relating atmospheric N deposition to effects on terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems in the United States, and to estimate associated empirical N critical loads. The receptors considered included freshwater diatoms, mycorrhizal fungi, lichens, bryophytes, herbaceous plants, shrubs, and trees. Ecosystem impacts included: (1) biogeochemical responses and (2) individual species, population, and community responses. Biogeochemical responses included increased N mineralization and nitrification (and N availability for plant and microbial uptake), increased gaseous N losses (ammonia volatilization, nitric and nitrous oxide from nitrification and denitrification), and increased N leaching. Individual species, population, and community responses included increased tissue N, physiological and nutrient imbalances, increased growth, altered root : shoot ratios, increased susceptibility to secondary stresses, altered fire regime, shifts in competitive interactions and community composition, changes in species richness and other measures of biodiversity, and increases in invasive species. The range of critical loads for nutrient N reported for U.S. ecoregions, inland surface waters, and freshwater wetlands is 1-39 kg N.ha -1.yr -1, spanning the range of N deposition observed over most of the country. The empirical critical loads for N tend to increase in the following sequence for different life forms: diatoms, lichens and bryophytes, mycorrhizal fungi, herbaceous plants and shrubs, and trees. The critical load approach is an ecosystem assessment tool with great potential to simplify complex scientific information and communicate effectively with the policy community and the public. This synthesis represents the first comprehensive assessment of empirical critical loads of N for major ecoregions across the United States. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS1999

Characterizing fish community diversity across Virginia landscapes: Prerequisite for conservation

The number of community types occurring within landscapes is an important, but often unprotected, component of biological diversity. Generally applicable protocols for characterizing community diversity need to be developed to facilitate conservation. We used several multivariate techniques to analyze geographic variation in the composition of fish communities in Virginia streams. We examined relationships between community composition and six landscape variables: drainage basin, physiography, stream order, elevation, channel slope, and map coordinates. We compared patterns at two scales (statewide and subdrainage-specific) to assess sensitivity of community classification to spatial scale. We also compared patterns based on characterizing communities by species composition vs. ecological composition. All landscape variables explained significant proportions of the variance in community composition. Statewide, they explained 32% of the variance in species composition and 48% of the variance in ecological composition. Typical communities in each drainage or physiography were statistically distinctive. Communities in different combinations of drainage, physiography, and stream size were even more distinctive, but composition was strongly spatially autocorrelated. Ecological similarity and species similarity of community pairs were strongly related, but replacement by ecologically similar species was common among drainage–physiography combinations. Landscape variables explained significant proportions of variance in community composition within selected subdrainages, but proportions were less than at the statewide scale, and the explanatory power of individual variables varied considerably among subdrainages. Community variation within subdrainages appeared to be much more closely related to environmental variation than to replacement among ecologically similar species. Our results suggest that taxonomic and ecological characterizations of community composition are complementary; both are useful in a conservation context. Landscape features such as drainage, physiography, and water body size generally may provide a basis for assessing aquatic community diversity, especially in regions where the biota is poorly known. Systematic conservation of community types would be a major advance relative to most current conservation programs, which typically focus narrowly on populations of imperiled species. More effective conservation of aquatic biodiversity will require new approaches that recognize the value of both species and assemblages, and that emphasize protection of key landscape-scale processes.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2002

Meeting ecological and societal needs for freshwater

Human society has used freshwater from rivers, lakes, groundwater, and wetlands for many different urban, agricultural, and industrial activities, but in doing so has overlooked its value in supporting ecosystems. Freshwater is vital to human life and societal well-being, and thus its utilization for consumption, irrigation, and transport has long taken precedence over other commodities and services provided by freshwater ecosystems. However, there is growing recognition that functionally intact and biologically complex aquatic ecosystems provide many economically valuable services and long-term benefits to society. The short-term benefits include ecosystem goods and services, such as food supply, flood control, purification of human and industrial wastes, and habitat for plant and animal life—and these are costly, if not impossible, to replace. Long-term benefits include the sustained provision of those goods and services, as well as the adaptive capacity of aquatic ecosystems to respond to future environmental alterations, such as climate change. Thus, maintenance of the processes and properties that support freshwater ecosystem integrity should be included in debates over sustainable water resource allocation. The purpose of this report is to explain how the integrity of freshwater ecosystems depends upon adequate quantity, quality, timing, and temporal variability of water flow. Defining these requirements in a comprehensive but general manner provides a better foundation for their inclusion in current and future debates about allocation of water resources. In this way the needs of freshwater ecosystems can be legitimately recognized and addressed. We also recommend ways in which freshwater ecosystems can be protected, maintained, and restored. Freshwater ecosystem structure and function are tightly linked to the watershed or catchment of which they are a part. Because riverine networks, lakes, wetlands, and their connecting groundwaters, are literally the “sinks” into which landscapes drain, they are greatly influenced by terrestrial processes, including many human uses or modifications of land and water. Freshwater ecosystems, whether lakes, wetlands, or rivers, have specific requirements in terms of quantity, quality, and seasonality of their water supplies. Sustainability normally requires these systems to fluctuate within a natural range of variation. Flow regime, sediment and organic matter inputs, thermal and light characteristics, chemical and nutrient characteristics, and biotic assemblages are fundamental defining attributes of freshwater ecosystems. These attributes impart relatively unique characteristics of productivity and biodiversity to each ecosystem. The natural range of variation in each of these attributes is critical to maintaining the integrity and dynamic potential of aquatic ecosystems; therefore, management should allow for dynamic change. Piecemeal approaches cannot solve the problems confronting freshwater ecosystems. Scientific definitions of the requirements to protect and maintain aquatic ecosystems are necessary but insufficient for establishing the appropriate distribution between societal and ecosystem water needs. For scientific knowledge to be implemented science must be connected to a political agenda for sustainable development. We offer these recommendations as a beginning to redress how water is viewed and managed in the United States: (1) Frame national and regional water management policies to explicitly incorporate freshwater ecosystem needs, particularly those related to naturally variable flow regimes and to the linking of water quality with water quantity; (2) Define water resources to include watersheds, so that freshwaters are viewed within a landscape, or systems context; (3) Increase communication and education across disciplines, especially among engineers, hydrologists, economists, and ecologists to facilitate an integrated view of freshwater resources; (4) Increase restoration efforts, using well-grounded ecological principles as guidelines; (5) Maintain and protect the remaining freshwater ecosystems that have high integrity; and (6) Recognize the dependence of human society on naturally functioning ecosystems.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2003

Applying ecological criteria to marine reserve design: A case study from the California Channel Islands

Using ecological criteria as a theoretical framework, we describe the steps involved in designing a network of marine reserves for conservation and fisheries management. Although we describe the case study of the Channel Islands, the approach to marine reserve design may be effective in other regions where traditional management alone does not sustain marine resources. A group of agencies, organizations, and individuals established clear goals for marine reserves in the Channel Islands, including conservation of ecosystem biodiversity, sustainable fisheries, economic viability, natural and cultural heritage, and education. Given the constraints of risk management, experimental design, monitoring, and enforcement, scientists recommended at least one, but no more than four, reserves in each biogeographic region. In general, the percentage of an area to be included in a reserve network depends on the goals. In the Channel Islands, after consideration of both conservation goals and the risk from human threats and natural catastrophes, scientists recommended reserving an area of 30–50% of all representative habitats in each biogeographic region. For most species of concern, except pinnipeds and seabirds, information about distributions, dispersal, and population growth was limited. As an alternative to species distribution information, suitable habitats for species of concern were used to locate potential reserve sites. We used a simulated annealing algorithm to identify potential reserve network scenarios that would represent all habitats within the smallest area possible. The analysis produced an array of potential reserve network scenarios that all met the established goals.

California↗
USGS2003

Land use and land cover change in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem: 1975-1995

Shifts in the demographic and economic character of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) are driving patterns of land cover and land use change in the region. Such changes may have important consequences for ecosystem functioning. The objective of this paper is to quantify the trajectories and rates of change in land cover and use across the GYE for the period 1975-1995 using satellite imagery. Spectral and geographic variables were used as inputs to classification tree regression analysis (CART) to find "rules" which defined land use and land cover classes on the landscape. The resulting CART functions were used to map land cover and land use across seven Landsat TM scenes for 1995. We then used a thresholding technique to identify locations that differed in spectral properties between the 1995 and 1985 time periods. These "changed" locations were classified using CART functions derived from spectral and geographic data from 1985. This was similarly done for the year 1975 based on Landsat MSS data. Differences between the 1975, 1985, and 1995 maps were considered change in land cover and use. We calibrated and tested the accuracy of our models using data acquired through manual interpretation of aerial photos. Elevation and vegetative indices derived from the remotely sensed satellite imagery explained the most variance in the land use and land cover classes (-i.e., defined the "rules" most often). Overall accuracies from our study were good, ranging from 94% at the coarsest level of detail to 74% at the finest. The largest changes over the study period were the increases in burned, urban, and mixed conifer-herbaceous classes and decreases in woody deciduous, mixed woody deciduous-herbaceous, and conifer habitats. These changes have important implications for ecological function and biodiversity. The expansion of mixed conifer classes may increase fuel loads and enhance risk to the growing number of rural homes. The reduction of woody deciduous cover types is likely reducing population sizes for the numerous plant and animal species that specialize on this habitat type. Some of these species are also negatively influenced by the increase of rural homes in and near woody deciduous habitats.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2012

Carbon stocks across a chronosequence of thinned and unmanaged red pine ( Pinus resinosa ) stands

Forests function as a major global C sink, and forest management strategies that maximize C stocks offer one possible means of mitigating the impacts of increasing anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. We studied the effects of thinning, a common management technique in many forest types, on age-related trends in C stocks using a chronosequence of thinned and unmanaged red pine ( Pinus resinosa ) stands ranging from 9 to 306 years old. Live tree C stocks increased with age to a maximum near the middle of the chronosequence in unmanaged stands, and increased across the entire chronosequence in thinned stands. C in live understory vegetation and C in the mineral soil each declined rapidly with age in young stands but changed relatively little in middle-aged to older stands regardless of management. Forest floor C stocks increased with age in unmanaged stands, but forest floor C decreased with age after the onset of thinning around age 40 in thinned stands. Deadwood C was highly variable, but decreased with age in thinned stands. Total ecosystem C increased with stand age until approaching an asymptote around age 150. The increase in total ecosystem C was paralleled by an age-related increase in total aboveground C, but relatively little change in total belowground C. Thinning had surprisingly little impact on total ecosystem C stocks, but it did modestly alter age-related trends in total ecosystem C allocation between aboveground and belowground pools. In addition to characterizing the subtle differences in C dynamics between thinned and unmanaged stands, these results suggest that C accrual in red pine stands continues well beyond the 60–100 year management rotations typical for this system. Management plans that incorporate longer rotations and thinning in some stands could play an important role in maximizing C stocks in red pine forests while meeting other objectives including timber extraction, biodiversity conservation, restoration, and fuel reduction goals.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2012

Long-term demographic consequences of habitat fragmentation to a tropical understory bird community

Tropical deforestation continues to cause population declines and local extinctions in centers of avian diversity and endemism. Although local species extinctions stem from reductions in demographic rates, little is known about how habitat fragmentation influences survival of tropical bird populations or the relative importance of survival and fecundity in ultimately shaping communities. We analyzed 22 years of mark-recapture data to assess how fragmentation influenced apparent survival, recruitment, and realized population growth rate within 22 forest understory bird species in the Usambara Mountains, Tanzania. This represents the first such effort, in either tropical or temperate systems, to characterize the effect of deforestation on avian survival across such a broad suite of species. Long-term demographic analysis of this suite of species experiencing the same fragmented environment revealed considerable variability in species' responses to fragmentation, in addition to general patterns that emerged from comparison among species. Across the understory bird community as a whole, we found significantly lower apparent survival and realized population growth rate in small fragments relative to large, demonstrating fragmentation effects to demographic rates long after habitat loss. Demographic rates were depressed across five feeding guilds, suggesting that fragmentation sensitivity was not limited to insectivores. Seniority analyses, together with a positive effect of fragmentation on recruitment, indicated that depressed apparent survival was the primary driver of population declines and observed extinctions. We also found a landscape effect, with lower vital rates in one mountain range relative to another, suggesting that fragmentation effects may add to other large-scale drivers of population decline. Overall, realized population growth rate (&lambda;) estimates were < 1 for most species, suggesting that future population persistence even within large forest fragments is uncertain in this biodiversity hotspot.

Usambara Mountains↗
USGS2012

Directional connectivity in hydrology and ecology

Quantifying hydrologic and ecological connectivity has contributed to understanding transport and dispersal processes and assessing ecosystem degradation or restoration potential. However, there has been little synthesis across disciplines. The growing field of ecohydrology and recent recognition that loss of hydrologic connectivity is leading to a global decline in biodiversity underscore the need for a unified connectivity concept. One outstanding need is a way to quantify directional connectivity that is consistent, robust to variations in sampling, and transferable across scales or environmental settings. Understanding connectivity in a particular direction (e.g., streamwise, along or across gradient, between sources and sinks, along cardinal directions) provides critical information for predicting contaminant transport, planning conservation corridor design, and understanding how landscapes or hydroscapes respond to directional forces like wind or water flow. Here we synthesize progress on quantifying connectivity and develop a new strategy for evaluating directional connectivity that benefits from use of graph theory in ecology and percolation theory in hydrology. The directional connectivity index (DCI) is a graph-theory based, multiscale metric that is generalizable to a range of different structural and functional connectivity applications. It exhibits minimal sensitivity to image rotation or resolution within a given range and responds intuitively to progressive, unidirectional change. Further, it is linearly related to the integral connectivity scale length—a metric common in hydrology that correlates well with actual fluxes—but is less computationally challenging and more readily comparable across different landscapes. Connectivity-orientation curves (i.e., directional connectivity computed over a range of headings) provide a quantitative, information-dense representation of environmental structure that can be used for comparison or detection of subtle differences in the physical-biological feedbacks driving pattern formation. Case-study application of the DCI to the Everglades in south Florida revealed that loss of directional hydrologic connectivity occurs more rapidly and is a more sensitive indicator of declining ecosystem function than other metrics (e.g., habitat area) used previously. Here and elsewhere, directional connectivity can provide insight into landscape drivers and processes, act as an early-warning indicator of environmental degradation, and serve as a planning tool or performance measure for conservation and restoration efforts.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2013

Interactive effects of wildfire, forest management, and isolation on amphibian and parasite abundance

Projected increases in wildfire and other climate-driven disturbances will affect populations and communities worldwide, including host&ndash;parasite relationships. Research in temperate forests has shown that wildfire can negatively affect amphibians, but this research has occurred primarily outside of managed landscapes where interactions with human disturbances could result in additive or synergistic effects. Furthermore, parasites represent a large component of biodiversity and can affect host fitness and population dynamics, yet they are rarely included in studies of how vertebrate hosts respond to disturbance. To determine how wildfire affects amphibians and their parasites, and whether effects differ between protected and managed landscapes, we compared abundance of two amphibians and two nematodes relative to wildfire extent and severity around wetlands in neighboring protected and managed forests (Montana, USA). Population sizes of adult, male long-toed salamanders ( Ambystoma macrodactylum ) decreased with increased burn severity, with stronger negative effects on isolated populations and in managed forests. In contrast, breeding population sizes of Columbia spotted frogs ( Rana luteiventris ) increased with burn extent in both protected and managed protected forests. Path analysis showed that the effects of wildfire on the two species of nematodes were consistent with differences in their life history and transmission strategies and the responses of their hosts. Burn severity indirectly reduced abundance of soil-transmitted Cosmocercoides variabilis through reductions in salamander abundance. Burn severity also directly reduced C. variabilis abundance, possibly though changes in soil conditions. For the aquatically transmitted nematode Gyrinicola batrachiensis , the positive effect of burn extent on density of Columbia spotted frog larvae indirectly increased parasite abundance. Our results show that effects of wildfire on amphibians depend upon burn extent and severity, isolation, and prior land use. Through subsequent effects on the parasites, our results also reveal how changes in disturbance regimes can affect communities across trophic levels.

Montana↗
USGS2014

Spatially explicit modeling of 1992-2100 land cover and forest stand age for the conterminous United States

Information on future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is needed to analyze the impact of LULC change on ecological processes. The U.S. Geological Survey has produced spatially explicit, thematically detailed LULC projections for the conterminous United States. Four qualitative and quantitative scenarios of LULC change were developed, with characteristics consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on 5 Emission Scenarios (SRES). The four quantified scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2) served as input to the Forecasting Scenarios of Land-use Change (FORE-SCE) model. Four spatially explicit datasets consistent with scenario storylines were produced for the conterminous United States, with annual LULC maps from 1992 through 2100. The future projections are characterized by a loss of natural land covers in most scenarios, with corresponding expansion of 10 anthropogenic land uses. Along with the loss of natural land covers, remaining natural land covers experience increased fragmentation under most scenarios, with only the B2 scenario remaining relatively stable in both proportion of remaining natural land covers and basic fragmentation measures. Forest stand age was also modeled. By 2100, scenarios and ecoregions with heavy forest cutting have relatively lower mean stand ages compared to those with less 15 forest cutting. Stand ages differ substantially between unprotected and protected forest lands, as well as between different forest classes. The modeled data were compared to the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) and other data sources to assess model characteristics. The consistent, spatially explicit, and thematically detailed LULC projections and the associated forest stand age data layers have been used to analyze LULC impacts on carbon and greenhouse gas fluxes, 20 biodiversity, climate and weather variability, hydrologic change, and other ecological processes.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2015

Understanding protected area resilience: a multi-scale, social-ecological approach

Protected areas (PAs) remain central to the conservation of biodiversity. Classical PAs were conceived as areas that would be set aside to maintain a natural state with minimal human influence. However, global environmental change and growing cross-scale anthropogenic influences mean that PAs can no longer be thought of as ecological islands that function independently of the broader social-ecological system in which they are located. For PAs to be resilient (and to contribute to broader social-ecological resilience), they must be able to adapt to changing social and ecological conditions over time in a way that supports the long-term persistence of populations, communities, and ecosystems of conservation concern. We extend Ostrom's social-ecological systems framework to consider the long-term persistence of PAs, as a form of land use embedded in social-ecological systems, with important cross-scale feedbacks. Most notably, we highlight the cross-scale influences and feedbacks on PAs that exist from the local to the global scale, contextualizing PAs within multi-scale social-ecological functional landscapes. Such functional landscapes are integral to understand and manage individual PAs for long-term sustainability. We illustrate our conceptual contribution with three case studies that highlight cross-scale feedbacks and social-ecological interactions in the functioning of PAs and in relation to regional resilience. Our analysis suggests that while ecological, economic, and social processes are often directly relevant to PAs at finer scales, at broader scales, the dominant processes that shape and alter PA resilience are primarily social and economic.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2015

Evaluating species richness: biased ecological inference results from spatial heterogeneity in species detection probabilities

Accurate estimates of species richness are necessary to test predictions of ecological theory and evaluate biodiversity for conservation purposes. However, species richness is difficult to measure in the field because some species will almost always be overlooked due to their cryptic nature or the observer's failure to perceive their cues. Common measures of species richness that assume consistent observability across species are inviting because they may require only single counts of species at survey sites. Single-visit estimation methods ignore spatial and temporal variation in species detection probabilities related to survey or site conditions that may confound estimates of species richness. We used simulated and empirical data to evaluate the bias and precision of raw species counts, the limiting forms of jackknife and Chao estimators, and multi-species occupancy models when estimating species richness to evaluate whether the choice of estimator can affect inferences about the relationships between environmental conditions and community size under variable detection processes. Four simulated scenarios with realistic and variable detection processes were considered. Results of simulations indicated that (1) raw species counts were always biased low, (2) single-visit jackknife and Chao estimators were significantly biased regardless of detection process, (3) multispecies occupancy models were more precise and generally less biased than the jackknife and Chao estimators, and (4) spatial heterogeneity resulting from the effects of a site covariate on species detection probabilities had significant impacts on the inferred relationships between species richness and a spatially explicit environmental condition. For a real dataset of bird observations in northwestern Alaska, the four estimation methods produced different estimates of local species richness, which severely affected inferences about the effects of shrubs on local avian richness. Overall, our results indicate that neglecting the effects of site covariates on species detection probabilities may lead to significant bias in estimation of species richness, as well as the inferred relationships between community size and environmental covariates.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2015

Impacts of weather on long-term patterns of plant richness and diversity vary with location and management

Better understanding the influence of precipitation and temperature on plant assemblages is needed to predict the effects of climate change. Many studies have examined the relationship between plant productivity and weather (primarily precipitation), but few have directly assessed the relationship between plant richness or diversity and weather despite their increased use as metrics of ecosystem condition. We focus on the grasslands of central North America, which are characterized by high temporal climatic variability. Over the next 100 years, these grasslands are predicted to experience further increased variability in growing season precipitation, as well as increased temperatures, due to global climate change. We assess 1) the portion of interannual variability of richness and diversity explained by weather, 2) how relationships between these metrics and weather vary among plant assemblages, and 3) which aspects of weather best explain temporal variability. We used an information-theoretic approach to assess relationships between long-term plant richness and diversity patterns and a priori weather covariates using six datasets from four grasslands. Weather explained up to 49% and 63% of interannual variability in total plant species richness and diversity, respectively. However, richness and diversity responses to specific weather variables varied both among sites and among experimental treatments within sites. In general, we found many instances in which temperature was of equal or greater importance as precipitation, as well as evidence of the importance of lagged effects and precipitation or temperature variability. Although precipitation has been shown to be a key driver of productivity in grasslands, our results indicate that increasing temperatures alone, without substantial changes in precipitation patterns, could have measurable effects on Great Plains grassland plant assemblages and biodiversity metrics. Our results also suggest that richness and diversity will respond in unique ways to changing climate and management can affect these responses; additional research and monitoring will be essential for further understanding of these complex relationships. Read More: http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/14-1989.1

Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota↗