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Why were California's wine country fires so destructive?

As of late October more than a dozen wildfires north of San Francisco had killed more than 40 people, burned approximately 160,000 acres and destroyed more than 7,000 structures. This tragic loss of life and property is unprecedented in California. However, the fires are not anomalous events in terms of their size, intensity or the speed with which they spread. Indeed, the path of the destructive Tubbs fire in Napa and Sonoma counties mirrors that of the Hanley fire of 1964. This extreme wind-driven fire burned under similar conditions, across much of the same landscape and covered an area substantially greater than the recent Tubbs fire. Strikingly, though, no lives were lost during the Hanley fire and only 29 structures were destroyed. Why did these two fires, 50 years apart, burn on the same general landscape, under similar extreme winds, with such different human impacts? Fire scientists will study these events intensively to parse out the relative importance of various factors. But it is clear that two factors probably were major contributors: wind and population growth.

California↗

LANDFIRE 2015 Remap – Utilization of Remotely Sensed Data to Classify Existing Vegetation Type and Structure to Support Strategic Planning and Tactical Response

The LANDFIRE Program produces national scale vegetation, fuels, fire regimes, and landscape disturbance data for the entire U.S. These data products have been used to model the potential impacts of fire on the landscape [1], the wildfire risks associated with land and resource management [2, 3], and those near population centers and accompanying Wildland Urban Interface zones [4], as well as many other applications . The initial LANDFIRE National Existing Vegetation Type (EVT ) and vegetation structure layers, including vegetation percent cover and height, were mapped circa 2001 and released in 2009 [5]. Each EVT is representative of the dominant plant community within a given area. The EVT layer has since been updated by identifying areas of landscape change and modifying the vegetation types utilizing a series of rules that consider the disturbance type, severity of disturbance, and time since disturbance [6, 7]. Non-disturbed areas were adjusted for vegetation growth and succession. LANDFIRE vegetation structure layers also have been updated by using data modeling techniques [see 6 for a full description]. The subsequent updated versions of LANDFIRE include LANDFIRE 2008, 2010, 2012 , and LANDFIRE 2014 is being incrementally released, with all data being released in early 2017. Additionally, a comprehensive remap of the baseline data, LANDFIRE 2015 Remap , is being prototyped, and production is tentatively planned to begin in early 2017 to provide a more current baseline for future updates.

Earthzine↗

Remote sensing and geospatial support to burned area emergency response teams

A major concern of land managers in the United States is the response of watersheds to weather after a wildfire. With an ever-expanding wildland-urban interface (WUI), land managers must be cognizant of potential damage to private property and other values at risk. In the United States, land-management agencies from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) deploy Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) teams to address these concerns and to “prescribe and implement emergency treatments to minimize threats to life or property or to stabilize and prevent unacceptable degradation to natural and cultural resources resulting from the effects of a fire” (USDA Forest Service 2004, p. 17). BAER teams’ objective is emergency stabilization of burned areas, rather than long-term restoration of the landscape after a fire.

Fire Management Today↗

Yellowstone and the biology of time: Photographs across a century

Established in 1872, Yellowstone National Park is the oldest and one of the largest national parks in the world. In this remarkable book, scientists Mary Meagher and Douglas B. Houston present 100 sets of photographs that compare the Yellowstone of old with the park of today. Most of the photo sets include three pictures-not the usual two-with many of the original views dating back to the 1870s and 1880s. From the same photo points used by early photographers, Meagher and Houston rephotographed the scenes in the 1970s, and then, following the great fires of 1988, again in the 1990s. The result is an illuminating record of Yellowstone’s dynamic ecosystem and its changes over time. Through close analysis of the photos and reference to the vast amount of available data, Meagher and Houston describe changes in vegetation, growth of wildlife populations, the effect of beaver occupancy on wetland areas, and geothermal and elevational shifts. At the same time they point out the extent to which many sites have not changed-despite important switches in park policy and an increase in human activity. Yellowstone National Park has long been the focus of major ecological debates. Should managers allow wildfires to burn? Should the elk and bison populations be controlled? Are too many people visiting the park? Yellowstone And The Biology Of Time offers a wealth of information to help us answer these questions. A visual treasure, this book will be of value to scientists from various disciplines as well as to the many people who care about Yellowstone and other protected wilderness areas around the world.

Yellowstone National Park↗

Monitoring five-needle pine on Bureau of Land Management lands in Wyoming summary report for 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017

Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) grows at high elevations and in subalpine communities in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rocky Mountains. Limber pine (Pinus flexilis) occurs in western North America across a broad elevational gradient from the Canadian Rocky Mountains into parts of New Mexico and Arizona and from southern California eastward to the few, isolated populations existing on the western boundary of the Dakotas and Nebraska (Steele 1990, Schoettle and Rochelle 2000). Both of these five-needle pine species play a variety of ecological roles and are considered key components in the their environments. Currently, whitebark pine and limber pine are being impacted by multiple ecological disturbances. White pine blister rust, caused by the introduced fungus Cronartium ribicola, mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), dwarf mistletoe (Arceuthobium spp.), wildfires, and drought all pose significant threats to the persistence of healthy five-needle populations. An effort was initiated in 2013 by the National Park Service and the Wyoming Bureau of Land Management (WYBLM) to evaluate and monitor the long-term health trajectory of five-needle pines on WYBLM lands within the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). With guidance from the Interagency Whitebark Pine Monitoring Program protocol, and employing a rapid assessment survey technique specifically designed for this endeavor, we monitored whitebark pine trees in 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017. We estimated the proportion of live, five-needle pine trees (>1.4 m tall) infected with white pine blister rust, documented blister rust infection severity by the occurrence and location of persisting and new infections, determined mortality of five-needle pine trees and described potential factors contributing to the death of trees, and assessed the multiple components of recruitment of understory five-needle pine into the reproductive population. White pine blister rust was widespread throughout WYBLM lands within the GYE. Using a combined ratio estimator we found that the proportion of live, >1.4 m tall five-needle pine trees infected with white pine blister rust was 0.156 (±0.054 SE; this estimate combines all surveyed trees). Bole cankers were 25% more prevalent than branch cankers in all five-needle pines observed. Mortality of surveyed trees on WYBLM lands was predominantly attributed to mountain pine beetle. For seedlings and saplings, a total of 4003 live, ≤1.4 m tall five-needle pines were documented. Cones or cone scars were recorded on 745 of the live trees. Of these reproducing trees, 44 were recorded with white pine blister rust infection. Long-term monitoring on five-needle pines on WYBLM lands will continue into the future.

Wyoming↗

Fire and nonnative invasive plants in the central bioregion

The Central bioregion is a vast area, stretching from Canada to Mexico and from the eastern forests to the Rocky Mountains, dominated by grasslands and shrublands, but inclusive of riparian and other forests. This bioregion has been impacted by many human induced changes, particularly relating to agricultural practices, over the past 150 years. Also changed are fire regimes, first by native peoples who used fire for a variety of purposes and then by European settlers, who directly and indirectly contributed to a great reduction in the frequency of fire on the landscape. Perhaps of even greater importance has been the introduction of nonnative plant species, which have come to impact every community type to some degree. Nonnative plants have a wide array of impacts on native ecosystems and populations in the Central bioregion, and these impacts continue to mount and evolve. Many long-time invaders, such as smooth brome (Bromus inermis), and leafy spurge (Euphorbia esula), have already spread to large areas, and their ranges may still be expanding. Others, such as tamarisk or saltcedar (Tamarix spp.) and buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare), are rapidly spreading at the present time, while still others have likely not yet shown their full potential for expansion. In this volume, as well as in this chapter, our emphasis is on the interaction of nonnatives with fire, how it affects them and how they affect it. The ecosystems of the Central bioregion have been shaped by fire, including fires associated with natural ignitions and those deliberately set by humans. Both grasslands and shrublands in this bioregion experienced frequent and widespread fires during their evolution (Stewart 2002). Prescribed fire is now widely used to manage some areas for their natural characteristics. Thus, while changed in character, both by conditions that now limit wildfire occurrence and spread and by prescribed burning, the Central bioregion remains one with a high fire frequency (Wade and others 2000). Fire interactions with nonnative plants can have important impacts. In some cases, fire can be a means of reducing impacts of nonnative species (chapter 4). In other cases, fire may facilitate the establishment and spread of nonnatives (chapter 2). Some nonnative species can radically change the fire regime itself (chapter3). Because of the widespread use of prescribed fire in this bioregion, it is important to know how nonnative species interact with fire and whether there are means whereby these interactions can be controlled.

Great Plains↗

Forward-looking dryland restoration in an age of change

Drought, wildfires, and invasive species are among the many challenges practitioners face in achieving restoration goals in drylands. In this article, we highlight relevant restoration research and programs that pursue actionable information and resource management goals for the Intermountain West. In the context of international restoration targets recently set, we speak to dryland restoration challenges and opportunities related to climate change, social perceptions of drylands, and species selection strategies aimed at restoring healthy native plant communities.

Native Plants Journal↗

Cloud water interception in Hawai‘i: Developing capacity to characterize the spatial patterns and effects on water and ecological processes responses in Hawai‘i

Cloud-water interception (CWI) is the process by which fog or cloud water droplets are captured and accumulate on the leaves and branches of plants, some of which drips to the ground. Prior studies in Hawai'i indicate that CWI is highly variable and can contribute substantially to total precipitation. In this study, we monitored CWI and other processes at five mountain field sites on the Islands of Oʻahu, Maui, and Hawaiʻi to explore how CWI (1) varies with different climate and vegetation characteristics, (2) affects plant water use and growth, and (3) contributes to water resources. Results show that annual CWI varied from 158 to 910 mm, accounting for 3-34% of total water input at individual sites. This large variation was caused by differences in the quantity of cloud water, wind speed, and vegetation structure between sites. We developed a model to predict CWI using both climatic and forest canopy characteristics. On average, the model underestimated annual CWI by 18%, but reproduced the site differences relatively well. Plant water use decreased during periods of fog events mainly because of associated higher humidity. This new CWI model can be used to assess impacts of climate and land cover change on CWI and provide valuable information for resource management in Hawai‘i, which was not previously possible. At one field site, we explored the impacts of fog water on hydrological and ecological processes. Fog effects on native plant growth were indirect, primarily buffering effects of solar radiation. Removal of grass allowed natural regeneration of seedlings but did not alter soil moisture values. A soil data-collection program was initiated to help evaluate the role CWI has in providing moisture for plants, reducing wildfire risk within the fog zone, and contributing to groundwater recharge to aquifers that supply drinking water and groundwater discharge to streams.

Hawaii↗

Golden Eagle (Aquila chysaetos)

The golden eagle ( Aquila chrysaetos ) is commonly recognized as an indicator of ecosystem health and was selected as an important indicator species for the ecological health of lands owned and managed by East Bay Stewardship Network (Network) partner agencies within the area of focus for this project (See map, Chapter 1). Based on national conservation goals and past and current golden eagle research in the area of focus, the desired condition and trend for this indicator species are to: (1) maintain or improve site occupancy by territorial pairs (i.e., the proportion of sites surveyed with at least 1 pair of eagles), (2) maximize reproductive rate (i.e., the proportion of sites surveyed with at least 1 pair of productive eagles), and (3) minimize the occurrence of territorial subadults in the local breeding population. The condition and trend in these three primary metrics were assessed for golden eagles in the area of focus using data from a large-scale demographic study conducted in 2014–2021 by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and others. Overall, we found a condition of “caution” and an “unchanging” trend for golden eagles in the area of focus. Analyses of site occupancy and reproductive rate indicated that the local breeding population was unchanging (i.e., no evidence of increasing or decreasing time trends in these metrics during 2014–2021). However, a consistently high occurrence of territorial subadults (22%–35%) has been observed at breeding territories near the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area (APWRA) relative to occupied territories monitored in surrounding regions (~3%). The heightened occurrence of territorial subadults suggested a possible increase in the adult mortality rate of territorial eagles occupying the Mt. Diablo Range and Mt. Hamilton subregions in the area of focus. Thus, although no trends were detected in site occupancy or reproductive rate, caution is warranted given the high observed frequency of territorial subadults, which was predominately associated with pairs monitored near the APWRA. The USGS golden eagle study was conducted during a period of prolonged and severe drought in the area of focus, which has been shown elsewhere to reduce the reproductive rate of golden eagles. Although we detected no trends in reproductive rate, we identified a condition of “caution” for this metric in the area of focus given that annual estimates were relatively low during the study period, which primarily included years of severe drought conditions in west-central California. A primary goal of the analysis was to provide a benchmark against which managers can measure future changes and understand the likely trajectory of this species. Baseline data and analyses provided here can be used to identify projects that could help support golden eagle conservation. Given the constraint of using only existing and available data, this evaluation also identified areas where not enough was known to draw meaningful conclusions. Gaps in our understanding include the long-term effects of repeated, extreme climate events (e.g., drought and wildfire) on golden eagle demographics and population sustainability, refined estimates of eagle survivorship and sources of mortality, and whether the APWRA represents a population sink for golden eagles within the northern Diablo Range and surrounding regions. These are described as data gaps at the end of this chapter and may be areas to focus on for future research and collaborations among land managers.

Book chapter↗

Mapping riparian vegetation response to climate change on the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River watershed to inform restoration priorities: 1935 to Present

The riparian vegetation within the San Carlos Apache Reservation (hereafter Reservation), within the Upper Gila River watershed extending from southwestern New Mexico into southeastern Arizona, provides immense ecological and cultural value to the people of the San Carlos Apache Tribe (hereafter referred to as the Tribe/Tribal) but has experienced substantial changes and stresses over the past century because of fluctuations in climate and a series of human-induced and natural disturbances. This research addresses these challenges by analyzing the riparian vegetation within the Upper Gila River watershed using aerial and satellite imagery, and by documenting the direct relationship to fluctuations in climate conditions. Results from this study would be provided to the Tribe to help the Tribe develop a restoration plan for their riparian forests. We show that the riparian vegetation has largely increased overall in greenness throughout the study period (i.e., 1985 through 2021), despite periods of drought conditions. This extends to the end of our study period particularly with native vegetation in the upper watershed. However, non-native and invasive tamarisk vegetation within much of the lower watershed has shown declining trends and increasing vegetative stress. Furthermore, these areas have experienced a large increase in wildfire presence and other disturbances. Nevertheless, Tribal restoration applications have been shown to increase native vegetation plant cover, suggesting that restoration activities have been successful overall.

Arizona, New Mexico↗

Drought, fire, and archeology in the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico

In the Jemez Mountains of New Mexico, cultural resources and traditional cultural landscapes are vulnerable to compounded impacts of changing climate and wildfires. Here, we discuss impacts to archeological resources observed in recent, high-severity fires, including at Bandelier National Monument and Valles Caldera National Preserve, and describe an interdisciplinary effort to quantity archeological fire effects.

New Mexico↗

Effects of climate change on midwestern ecosystems: Appalachian – Interior – Northeast Mesic Forest

The Appalachian-Interior-Northeast Mesic Forest ecosystem, historically buffered by cool, moist conditions, may experience significant stress under future climate change, particularly due to intensifying droughts and milder winters in the midwestern United States. Droughts are expected to intensify in frequency and severity, depleting soil moisture, increasing tree mortality, and reshaping species composition. Increasing aridity and disrupted hydrologic cycles will likely accelerate soil erosion, deplete nutrients, and heighten wildfire risk. Meanwhile, milder winters may reduce snowpack insulation, increase freeze-thaw cycles, and alter growing seasons, potentially amplifying cold stress, disrupting phenology, and contributing to shifts in habitat structure and community composition. While easing winter severity may temporarily boost plant productivity and facilitate species migration into and throughout the Midwest, it can also increase the risk of frost damage for early-leafing trees and disrupt ecological relationships, such as plant-pollinator interactions. Together, these stressors may drive fundamental shifts in habitat structure and community composition, favoring drought-, fire-, and cold-tolerant species, while historically dominant, moisture-dependent species decline. Species with limited drought resistance, such as those with shallow roots or low water-use efficiency, may be especially vulnerable, while drought-adapted taxa could gain a competitive advantage. This shift could trigger a departure from over a century of mesophication in the Appalachian-Interior-Northeast Mesic Forest, which has favored shade-loving, moisture-dependent species in fire-suppressed landscapes. As a result, these forests may be particularly ill-equipped to withstand the novel environmental conditions imposed by intensifying droughts and milder winters. The Appalachian-Northeast Mesic Forest habitat group, dominated by eastern hemlock ( Tsuga canadensis ) and eastern white pine ( Pinus strobus ), is likely particularly vulnerable, as both dominant species are projected to decline due to increasing drought stress and shifting competitive dynamics. In the North-Central Beech - Maple - Basswood Forest, the Driftless Area of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa may be more vulnerable than more eastern portions of the habitat due to its already drier conditions, with climate change expected to push these communities beyond favorable conditions. Species interactions, including invasive species, pests, and herbivory, are also likely to be reshaped by climate change, compounding stress on habitat groups throughout the Appalachian-Interior-Northeast Mesic Forest. Warmer winters and increased disturbance may facilitate the expansion of invasive species, which outcompete native vegetation and alter ecosystem dynamics. At the same time, pests and pathogens are likely to become more destructive, as milder winters enhance their survival and spread and drought weakens tree defenses. Additionally, rising white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) populations, supported by warmer winters, may shift forest regeneration patterns by selectively browsing on sensitive seedlings and saplings, limiting the recruitment of historically dominant tree species while favoring browse-resistant plants. Collectively, these pressures can drive significant and ongoing ecological transformation in the Appalachian-Interior-Northeast Mesic Forest, highlighting the need for adaptive management strategies to sustain biodiversity and ecosystem function.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Miss↗

Fire refugia in old-growth forests: Predicting habitat persistence to support land management in an era of rapid global change

Recent stand-replacing wildfires in late-successional and old-growth (LSOG) forests have increased land manager interest in fire refugia, which could provide vital habitat for threatened and endangered species during a time of rapid change. The overall goal of this project was to model, map, and share information essential for the conservation of LSOG forest ecosystems in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, within a diverse co-production team of state and federal land managers. We developed statistical models of contemporary (2002-2017) fire refugia, non-stand-replacing fire (NSR), and high-severity fire based on topography, fuels, fire weather, fire behavior and climate. Independent models were built for two ecoregions (Figure 1), one encompassing the Douglas-fir/western hemlock forests of the northwestern portion of our study area and the other encompassing dry-mixed conifer forests of the eastern Cascades and Klamath-Siskiyou region. We used these models to produce probability surface maps for fire refugia, NSR, and high-severity fire under low, moderate, and extreme fire weather and fire growth scenarios. These maps and associated products provide timely information about the likely persistence, change, and loss of LSOG forests under current and future climate conditions.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

Science for drought response

Droughts impact water availability and quality, agriculture, energy production, ecosystem health, cultural resources, and wildfire risk. In an average year, nearly 15% of the US experiences significant drought, and in some recent years, drought conditions have impacted more than a third of the nation (U.S. Drought Monitor). The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASCs) deliver actionable science to help land and resource managers prepare for, reduce the risk of, and recover from drought.

Report↗

Avoiding common pitfalls in the implementation of adaptive forest wildlife management

Forest management planning requires the evaluation of tradeoffs in proposed management actions to meet multiple objectives, including providing the habitat required to sustain wildlife populations. However, various species-specific life history strategies and ecological uncertainties complicate our understanding of the responses of wildlife to disturbances, such as wildfires and forest management. We believe that adaptive management processes, applied through the close collaboration of researchers and managers (e.g., coproduction), will be valuable in this effort. Although adaptive management programs have been touted in the past, we stress that many of these programs have fallen short of the requisite steps to complete the learning cycles of this process (i.e., single- and double-loop learning). Thus, we provide guidance on what we believe to be the missing components of these efforts in hopes to guide future coordination of local and regional adaptive management programs for forest wildlife.

General Technical Report↗

Variation in fire regimes of the Rocky Mountains: Implications for avian communities and fire management

Information about avian responses to fire in the U.S. Rocky Mountains is based solely on studies of crown fires. However, fire management in this region is based primarily on studies of low-elevation ponderosa pine ( Pinus ponderosa ) forests maintained largely by frequent understory fires. In contrast to both of these trends, most Rocky Mountain forests are subject to mixed severity fire regimes. As a result, our knowledge of bird responses to fire in the region is incomplete and skewed toward ponderosa pine forests. Research in recent large wildfires across the Rocky Mountains indicates that large burns support diverse avifauna. In the absence of controlled studies of bird responses to fire, we compared reproductive success for six cavity-nesting species using results from studies in burned and unburned habitats. Birds in ponderosa pine forests burned by stand-replacement fire tended to have higher nest success than individuals of the same species in unburned habitats, but unburned areas are needed to serve species dependent upon live woody vegetation, especially foliage gleaners. Over the last century, fire suppression, livestock grazing, and logging altered the structure and composition of many low-elevation forests, leading to larger and more severe burns. In higher elevation forests, changes have been less marked. Traditional low-severity prescribed fire is not likely to replicate historical conditions in these mixed or high-severity fire regimes, which include many mixed coniferous forests and all lodgepole pine ( Pinus contorta ) and spruce-fi r ( Picea-Abies ) forests. We suggest four research priorities: (1) the effects of fire severity and patch size on species’ responses to fire, (2) the possibility that postfire forests are ephemeral sources for some bird species, (3) the effect of salvage logging prescriptions on bird communities, and (4) experiments that illustrate bird responses to prescribed fire and other forest restoration methods. This research is urgent if we are to develop fire management strategies that reduce fire risk and maintain habitat for avifauna and other wildlife of the Rocky Mountains.

Studies in Avian Biology↗

Putting people first: Using social science to reduce risk

Wildland-urban interface residents, who occupy the areas where wildlands meet and mix with human development, are both contributors to and recipients of the disastrous effects of wildland fires. They contribute through fire starts, flammable homes, unmitigated properties, opposition to mitigation on nearby public lands, and land use planning efforts. We argue that successful, sustainable wildland fire solutions are only possible if the WUI residents are engaged. In this article, we describe an evidence-based quantitative social science model to illustrate how to put people at the center of wildland fire solutions. Our hope is to spur greater use of social science in evidence-based wildland fire programs.

Wildfire Magazine↗