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Stability and bias of classification rates in biological applications of discriminant analysis

We assessed the sampling stability of classification rates in discriminant analysis by using a factorial design with factors for multivariate dimensionality, dispersion structure, configuration of group means, and sample size. A total of 32,400 discriminant analyses were conducted, based on data from simulated populations with appropriate underlying statistical distributions. Simulation results indicated strong bias in correct classification rates when group sample sizes were small and when overlap among groups was high. We also found that stability of the correct classification rates was influenced by these factors, indicating that the number of samples required for a given level of precision increases with the amount of overlap among groups. In a review of 60 published studies, we found that 57% of the articles presented results on classification rates, though few of them mentioned potential biases in their results. Wildlife researchers should choose the total number of samples per group to be at least 2 times the number of variables to be measured when overlap among groups is low. Substantially more samples are required as the overlap among groups increases

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Effects of harness transmitters on behavior and reproduction of wild mallards

Radio telemetry has been an important research tool in waterfowl studies for >20 years, yet little effort has been made to evaluate potential effects of transmitters on the birds that carry them. As part of a 4-year mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) study in the prairie pothole region of North Dakota and Minnesota, we compared radio-marked and unmarked female mallards in terms of percent time observed feeding, resting, and preening; nest initiation date; and clutch size and egg volume. Radio-marked females carried a 23-g back-mounted transmitter attached with a 2-loop harness (Dwyer 1972). On average, radio-marked females tended to feed less, rest and preen more, initiate nests later, and lay smaller clutches and eggs than unmarked females. Thus, behavioral and reproductive data from ducks marked with back-mounted harness-attached transmitters may be biased. We recommend that new designs of radio packages be field tested and caution that effects may be masked under extreme environmental conditions.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Effects of radio transmitters on nesting captive mallards

Radio packages may subtly affect bird behavior and condition, and thus could bias results from studies using this technique. To assess effects on reproduction of mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), we tested 3 types of back-mounted radio packages on captive females. Eight paired females were randomly assigned to each of 4 treatments: 4-g transmitter attached with sutures and glue, 10-g or 18-g transmitter attached with a harness, and no transmitter (control). All mallards were fed ad libitum. No differences were detected among treatments in number of clutches, clutch size, nesting interval, egg mass, or body mass; powers (range = 0.15-0.48) of tests were low. Feather wear and skin irritation around radio packages were minimal. Birds retained sutured transmitters for an average of 43.5 days (range = 3-106 days) and harness transmitters for the duration of the study (106 days). Sutures were not reliable and presently are not recommended as an attachment method. Caution is advised in applying these results to radio-equipped mallards in the wild.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Sex ratios of canvasbacks wintering in Louisiana

Disparate sex ratios in waterfowl are considered indicative of differential survival between the sexes and may limit reproductive potential. Because other studies have shown canvasbacks (Aythya valisineria) have highly skewed sex ratios, I examined aerial photographs from surveys flown monthly during winters 1987-88 and 1988-89 to determine sex ratios of canvasbacks in Louisiana where the wintering population is increasing. Estimated statewide sex ratios (proportion male) were balanced during the initial arrival period in November (1987: 0.505, 1988: 0.524), dominated by males during December-February (range = 0.600- 0.655), and then dominated by females as birds departed in March (1989: 0.419). Sex ratios varied geograph- ically with males being more prevalent in flocks at inland sites than in coastal areas. Canvasback sex ratios did not vary by flock size nor between major- and minor-use areas. Canvasback sex ratios in Louisiana appeared to be representative of the population wintering in the lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast region and were less male dominated than the sex ratios projected for the population wintering in the Atlantic Flyway. Overall sex ratio characteristics imply that female canvasbacks in Louisiana may have higher annual survival or recruitment rates relative to males than occur in other wintering populations. I suggest that this may partially explain the observed increases in canvasbacks wintering in Louisiana.

Louisiana↗

Survival of female canvasbacks wintering in coastal Louisiana

Annual survival probabilities of female canvasbacks ( Aythya valisineria ) are lower than those of males, but sources and timing of mortality are poorly understood. To further elucidate causes of reduced annual survival in female canvasbacks, we estimated survival rates for radio-tagged females in coastal Louisiana during winters 1988-91. Survival estimates for winters 1988-91 were 0.946 ± 0.072 (estimate ± 95% CI) for adults ( n = 82) and 0.952 ± 0.065 for immatures ( n = 51). High survival by females wintering in coastal Louisiana suggests that sex- and age-related differences in canvasback survival occur during other periods of the annual cycle or at other wintering or staging sites.

Louisiana↗

Response of northern pintail breeding populations to drought, 1961-1992

According to data from the 1960s, northern pintails ( Anas acuta ) fly north of the Alberta and Saskatchewan prairies during drought resulting in decreasing pintail annual production. Reanalysis of overflight and reduced-production hypotheses using data from 1961-92 indicated that, although the same basic relationships were present, these relationships changed over time. The number of pintails counted in northern survey areas from Alaska through northern Alberta divided by the number in southern areas of Alberta and Saskatchewan was used as an index of overflight (North-South ratio). Variation in total May ponds in southern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan accounted for variation in the North-South ratio during the 1960s ( r 2 = 0.779, P = 0.004) and 1980s ( r 2 = 0.251, P = 0.08), but not during the 1970s ( r 2 = 0.001, P = 0.94), generally a period of high total May ponds. Variation in the North-South ratio accounted for variation in pintail production, measured as the age ratio from hunter harvest (harvest-age ratios), during the 1960s ( r 2 = 0.688, P = 0.01) but not during the 1970s ( r 2 = 0.226, P = 0.14) and 1980s ( r 2 = 0.103, P = 0.29). The lack of a relationship between harvest-age and North-South ratios during the 1980s resulted from lower average age ratios during years when large numbers of pintails were in the southern region. Pintail production in prairie-parkland areas may have declined and, in the 1990s, may be equal to production in the northern regions.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Effects of harness-attached transmitters on premigration and reproduction of Brant

Radio transmitters are an important tool in waterfowl ecology studies, but little is known about their effects on free-ranging geese. We attached transmitters to female brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ) to investigate migration schedules at a fall staging area, return rates to nesting grounds, and nesting rates of returning females in subsequent breeding seasons. Radio-tagged females (n = 62) carried either 35-g back-mounted transmitters attached with ribbon harnesses, or 26- or 32-g back-mounted transmitters affixed with plastic-coated wire harnesses (Dwyer 1972). Arrival and departure schedules at Izembek Lagoon, Alaska, did not differ (P > 0.05) between radio-tagged females and the entire population in 1987-89. Color-banded females with transmitters returned to the breeding colony in subsequent nesting seasons (1988-92) at a lower (P ≤ 0.003) rate (≤4%) than color-banded females without transmitters (57-83%). The 1 returning color-banded female with a transmitter did not breed, while an average 90% of the returning color-banded females without transmitters nested in subsequent breeding seasons (P = 0.005). Back-mounted, harness-attached transmitters may bias data in studies of waterfowl behavior, productivity, and survival.

Alaska↗

Effect of hunting on annual survival of grey ducks in New Zealand

We used band recovery data from grey ducks ( Anas superciliosa ) banded in New Zealand between 1957 and 1974 to test 2 null hypotheses: (1) hunting mortality is completely additive to natural sources of mortality, and (2) hunting mortality is completely compensated by changes in natural mortality. We modeled annual survival as a function of survival in the absence of hunting and the probability of death from hunting. The complete compensation hypothesis was rejected, but we were unable to reject the completely additive hypothesis. There was no evidence of sex- or age-specificity for the relationship between kill rate and annual survival rate. We used simulated data to evaluate model performance. Parameter estimates were unbiased despite the inclusion of estimates that lay outside the bounds of the parameter space, although model-based variance estimates were consistently less than empirical variances. Our results imply that harvest-restrictions may be useful in effecting change in annual survival rates of grey ducks.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Population trends from the American woodcock singing-ground survey, 1970-88

Population trend analysis of American woodcook ( Scolopax minor ) using data from a singing-ground survey indicates population declines throughout the breeding range of the species between 1970 and 1988. In the eastern United States and Canada, this decline has been quite consistent throughout the period, but in the central portion of the continent the population increased during the 1970's and declined during the early 1980's. Observers differ in their ability to hear woodcock, and we document observer differences in the singing-ground survey data and incorporate them into our analyses. Habitat changes have been suggested as the most likely cause of declines in woodcock populations.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Home range and movements of juvenile Puerto Rican parrots

We studied home range and movements of 15 radio-marked, juvenile Puerto Rican parrots ( Amazona vittata ) fledging from wild nests during summer and fall, 1985-87. When juvenile parrots remained in the nest valley, home ranges during 1986 ( x̄ = 32 ± 10 [SE] ha, n = 4) were larger ( P = 0.0079) than during 1987 ( x̄ = 13 ± 6 ha, n = 5). After radio-marked parrots integrated into adult flocks, home ranges during 1986 ( x̄ = 1,075 ± 135 ha, n = 3) were similar ( P = 0.10) to 1987 ( x̄ = 416 ± 62 ha, n = 2). Juvenile parrots restricted their movements to nest valleys an average of 58 ± 29 days following fledging. After joining adult flocks, juvenile parrots routinely flew between the east and west slopes of the Luquillo Mountains but did not exhibit a seasonal pattern of movement. We recommend that captive-raised, juvenile parrots used in release programs be ≥ 5 months old to ensure they are mature enough to integrate into wild flocks.

Luquillo Mountains, Puerto Rico↗

Survival and band recovery rates of sympatric grey ducks and mallards in New Zealand

We used band recovery data from grey ducks ( Anas superciliosa ) and mallards. ( A. platyrhynchos ) banded sympatrically during 1957-74 to estimate annual survival and recovery rates. Young birds tended to have higher recovery rates and lower survival rates than adults for both species. Both species showed strong evidence of year-to-year variation in annual survival rates. Survival rates of male mallards were higher than those in females, as is typical for this species in North America, but there was no evidence of sex-specific survival differences in grey ducks. Recovery rate estimates for grey ducks were high and were significantly higher than those for mallards. However, survival rates did not differ significantly between the 2 species within any age-sex class. The similar survival rates, when mallard populations were increasing and grey ducks were decreasing, suggest that mallard reproductive rates have been greater than those of grey ducks.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Band reporting rates for mallards with reward bands of different dollar values

Adult male mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ) were banded in summer 1987 with reward bands of different dollar values (0-$400) to determine the lowest dollar value that would yield a reporting rate approaching 1.0. During the 1987-88 and 1988-89 hunting seasons, rewards of between 50 and $100 were required to yield a reporting rate near 1.0. We estimated reporting rate of standard bands to be 0.32. Reward bands with 5 and $10 values produced reporting rates that were 1.5-2.0 times as large as those of standard bands. We developed a linear-logistic model to predict reporting rate as a function of the dollar value of reward bands.

Manitoba, Saskatchewan↗

Satellite telemetry: performance of animal-tracking systems

t: We used 10 Telonics ST-3 platform transmitter terminals (PTT's) configured for wolves and ungulates to examine the performance of the Argos satellite telemetry system. Under near-optimal conditions, 68 percentile errors for location qualities (NQ) 1, 2, and 3 were 1,188, 903, and 361 m, respectively. Errors (rE) exceeded expected values for NQ = 2 and 3, varied greatly among PTT's, increased as the difference (HE) between the estimated and actual PTT elevations increased, and were correlated nonlinearly with maximum satellite pass height (P,). We present a model of the relationships among rE, HE, and PH. Errors were bimodally distributed along the east-west axis and tended to occur away from the satellite when HE was positive. A southeasterly bias increased with HE, probably due to the particular distribution of satellite passes and effects of HE on rE. Under near-optimal conditions, 21 sensor message was received for up to 64% of available (PH, 50) satellite passes, and a location (NQ 2 1) was calculated for up to 63% of such passes. Sampling frequencies of sensor and location data declined 13 and 70%, respectively, for PTT's in a valley bottom and 65 and 86%, respectively, for PTT's on animals that were in valley bottoms. Sampling frequencies were greater for ungulate than for wolf collars.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Multivariate model of female black bear habitat use for a Geographic Information System

Simple univariate statistical techniques may not adequately assess the multidimensional nature of habitats used by wildlife. Thus, we developed a multivariate method to model habitat-use potential using a set of female black bear ( Ursus americanus ) radio locations and habitat data consisting of forest cover type, elevation, slope, aspect, distance to roads, distance to streams, and forest cover type diversity score in the Ozark Mountains of Arkansas. The model is based on the Mahalanobis distance statistic coupled with Geographic Information System (GIS) technology. That statistic is a measure of dissimilarity and represents a standardized squared distance between a set of sample variates and an ideal based on the mean of variates associated with animal observations. Calculations were made with the GIS to produce a map containing Mahalanobis distance values within each cell on a 60- × 60-m grid. The model identified areas of high habitat use potential that could not otherwise be identified by independent perusal of any single map layer. This technique avoids many pitfalls that commonly affect typical multivariate analyses of habitat use and is a useful tool for habitat manipulation or mitigation to favor terrestrial vertebrates that use habitats on a landscape scale.

Arkansas↗

Dispersal patterns of red foxes relative to population density

Factors affecting red fox (Vulpes vulpes) dispersal patterns are poorly understood but warranted investigation because of the role of dispersal in rebuilding depleted populations and transmission of diseases. We examined dispersal patterns of red foxes in North Dakota based on recoveries of 363 of 854 foxes tagged as pups and relative to fox density. Foxes were recovered up to 8.6 years after tagging; 79% were trapped or shot. Straight-line distances between tagging and recovery locations ranged from 0 to 302 km. Mean recovery distances increased with age and were greater for males than females, but longest individual recovery distances were by females. Dispersal distances were not related to population density for males (P = 0.36) or females (P = 0.96). The proportion of males recovered that dispersed was inversely related to population density (r = -0.94; n = 5; P = 0.02), but not the proportion of females (r = -0.49; n = 5; P = 0.40). Dispersal directions were not uniform for either males (P = 0.003) or females (P = 0.006); littermates tended to disperse in similar directions (P = 0.09). A 4-lane interstate highway altered dispersal directions (P = 0.001). Dispersal is a strong innate behavior of red foxes (especially males) that results in many individuals of both sexes traveling far from natal areas. Because dispersal distance was unaffected by fox density, populations can be rebuilt and diseases transmitted long distances regardless of fox abundance.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Breeding patterns and reproductive success of California sea otters

Following commercial exploitation in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, sea otter ( Enhydra lutris ) populations in Alaska, British Columbia, and Washington recovered at 17-20% a year, yet the California population increased at only 5% a year. This slow rate of increase is perplexing, given that unoccupied and apparently favorable habitats occur throughout the sea otter's California range, and higher growth rates occurred among northern sea otter populations. Better knowledge of the demography of the California population is important in understanding these disparate population growth rates. We studied the reproductive biology and behavior of 53 tagged female sea otters from 1985 to 1991 in Monterey Bay, California. During the study, 136 pups were born to these females. Observations of each female enabled us to determine exact or estimated pup birth dates, which we used to calculate lengths of gestation, pup dependency, and reproductive cycle. Seasonal trends in pupping, in the proportion of adult females with pups, and in pup separations from their mothers were relatively uniform throughout the year. The average interval between separation from pup and subsequent birth was 198 days, the interbirth interval was 407 days, and estimated birth rate was 0.90/year for all adult females. For females that pupped annually (did not lose undetected newborns), the average interbirth interval was 342 days, given an estimated birth rate of 1.07/year. Length of the reproductive cycle increased with increasing length of prior pup dependency. However, the interval between separation from pup and subsequent birth was delayed among females that prematurely lost their pups. The average length of dependency for pups that survived to weaning was 166 days, but ranged from 120 to 280 days. The maximum preweaning survival rate was 0.60-0.65, less than values measured or inferred for some Alaskan populations. Most pups that did not survive to weaning were lost within a month of birth. The probability of successfully weaning pups and the length of dependency increased ( P = 0.077) with mothers' ages, thus indicating that reproductive success may increase among females with greater mothering experience. The high preweaning pup mortality we observed probably accounts for much of the relatively slow growth rate of the California sea otter population.

California↗

An alternative index of satellite telemetry location error

Existing indices of satellite telemetry error offer objective standards for censoring poor locations, but have drawbacks. Examining distances and relative directions between consecutive satellite telemetry locations, I developed an alternative error index, ξ, and compared its performance with that of the location quality index, NQ (Serv. Argos 1988). In controlled tests, ξ was more (P ≤ 0.005) effective for improving precision than was a threshold of NQ > 1. The ξ index also conferred greater control over the trade off between sample size and precision, making ξ more cost-effective than NQ. Performances of ξ and NQ were otherwise comparable. In field tests with bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ), rejecting locations where ξ ≥ 1.5 km reduced (P < 0.001) longitudinal dispersion, the predominant error component. Longitudinal dispersion for these locations was less (P = 0.025) than for locations where NQ > 1 and 63% fewer data were censored, so that the extent of animals' movements was better indicated by using ξ rather than NQ. Because use of ξ may lead to underestimating the number of long-range, short-term forays (especially when the frequency of forays is high relative to sampling frequency), potential bias should be considered before using ξ. Nonetheless, ξ should be a useful alternative to NQ in many animal-tracking studies.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

Tundra swan habitat preferences during migration in North Dakota

I studied tundra swan (Cygnus columbianus columbianus) habitat preference in North Dakota during autumn migration, 1988-89. Many thousand tundra swans stop in the Prairie Pothole region during autumn migration, but swan resource use has not been quantified. I examined habitat preference in relation to an index of sago pondweed ( Potamogeton pectinatus ) presence, extent of open water, and wetland size. I compared habitat preference derived from counts of all swans to those derived from foraging swans only and cygnets only. Foraging swans preferred wetlands with sago pondweed ( P = 0.03); the number of foraging swans per wetland was >4 times higher on wetlands with sago pondweed than on wetlands without sago. In contrast, nonforaging swans did not prefer wetlands with sago pondweed ( P = 0.85) but preferred large wetlands ( P = 0.02) and those with a high proportion of contiguous open water ( P < 0.01). Thus, conclusions about habitat preference derived from counts of all swans, most of which were nonforaging, would not have revealed the importance of sago pondweed. Cygnets were more likely to be feeding than adults ( P = 0.03) and occurred proportionately more often in smaller flocks ( P = 0.04), but cygnets and adults had similar habitat preferences.

North Dakota↗