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At least 1,297 records · Page 72Linked to original sources
USGS2007

An application of surface geophysical techniques to the study of watershed hydrology

The applicability of geophysical methods to experimental watershed research is demonstrated by a study of a 106-acre forested watershed in central Pennsylvania. Data from a shallow seismic refraction study and an electrical resistivity study of the watershed were used to determine the depth of soils, their volumes, depth to bedrock, configuration of the bedrock surface and delineation of the bedrock surface and delineation of the water table. With this information on the subsurface conditions, the hydrologic properties of the watershed were described in greater detail. This information will be of value in explaining the watershed's response to various watershed treatment practices that eventually will be used.

Pennsylvania↗
USGS2007

Hydrological applications of Landsat imagery used in the study of the 1973 Indus River flood, Pakistan

During August and September 1973, the Indus River Valley of Pakistan experienced one of the largest floods on record, resulting in damages to homes, businesses, public works, and crops amounting to millions of rupees. Tremendous areas of lowlands were inundated along the Indus River and major tributaries. Landsat data made it possible to easily measure the extent of flooding, totaling about 20,000 km 2 within an area of about 400,000 km 2 south from the Punjab to the Arabian Sea. The Indus River data were used to continue experimentation in the development of rapid, accurate, and inexpensive optical techniques of flood mapping by satellite begun in 1973 for the Mississipi River floods. The research work on the Indus River not resulted in the development of more effective procedures for optical processing of flood data and synoptically depicting flooding, but also provided potentially valuable ancillary information concerning the hydrology of much of the Indus River Basin.

Indus River Basin↗
USGS2007

Development and application of a spatial hydrology model of Okefenokee Swamp, Georgia

The model described herein was used to assess effects of the Suwannee River sill (a low earthen dam constructed to impound the Suwannee River within the Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge to eliminate wildfires) on the hydrologic environment of Okefenokee Swamp, Georgia. Developed with Arc/Info Macro Language routines in the GRID environment, the model distributes water in the swamp landscape using precipitation, inflow, evapotranspiration, outflow, and standing water. Water movement direction and rate are determined by the neighborhood topographic gradient, determined using survey grade Global Positioning Systems technology. Model data include flow rates from USGS monitored gauges, precipitation volumes and water levels measured within the swamp, and estimated evapotranspiration volumes spatially modified by vegetation type. Model output in semi-monthly time steps includes water depth, water surface elevation above mean sea level, and movement direction and volume. Model simulations indicate the sill impoundment affects 18 percent of the swamp during high water conditions when wildfires are scarce and has minimal spatial effect (increasing hydroperiods in less than 5 percent of the swamp) during low water and drought conditions when fire occurrence is high but precipitation and inflow volumes are limited.

Georgia↗
USGS2010

Flood hazard awareness and hydrologic modelling at Ambos Nogales, United States–Mexico border

Appropriate land‐use, watershed‐management, and flood‐attenuation plans are critical in the cross‐border urban environment known collectively as Ambos Nogales. This paper summarizes methodologies for predicting the watershed response associated with land‐use change within a spatial and temporal context through the use of a hydrological model in a cross‐border setting. The KINEROS2 model is implemented via the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment 2.0 geographic information system interface to evaluate the watershed of Nogales, Arizona, and Nogales, Sonora, Mexico, to assess flood vulnerability by quantifying volumes of runoff and peak flow, based on alternative land‐use scenarios. Cross‐border geospatial data acquisition and input to models are described. Discussions about the KINEROS2 model results identify flood‐prone areas, simulate the impact of land‐use change, and evaluate the impact of potential flood‐control interventions in the Ambos Nogales watershed. Products from this research are being used in a comprehensive plan for sustainable development in Ambos Nogales.

Ambos Nogales watershed↗
USGS2014

Influences of water and sediment quality and hydrologic processes on mussels in the Clinch River

Segments of the Clinch River in Virginia have experienced declining freshwater mussel populations during the past 40 years, while other segments of the river continue to support some of the richest mussel communities in the country. The close proximity of these contrasting reaches provides a study area where differences in climate, hydrology, and historic mussel distribution are minimal. The USGS conducted a study between 2009 and 2011 to evaluate possible causes of the mussel declines. Evaluation of mussel habitat showed no differences in physical habitat quality, leaving water and sediment quality as possible causes for declines. Three years of continuous water-quality data showed higher turbidity and specific conductance in the reaches with low-quality mussel assemblages compared to reaches with high-quality mussel assemblages. Discrete water-quality samples showed higher major ions and metals concentrations in the low-quality reach. Base-flow samples contained high major ion and metal concentrations coincident to low-quality mussel populations. These results support a conceptual model of dilution and augmentation where increased concentrations of major ions and other dissolved constituents from mined tributaries result in reaches with declining mussel populations. Tributaries from unmined basins provide water with low concentrations of dissolved constituents, diluting reaches of the Clinch River where high-quality mussel populations occur.

Tennessee, Virginia↗
USGS2023

Shifted sediment-transport regimes by climate change and amplified hydrological variability in cryosphere-fed rivers

Climate change affects cryosphere-fed rivers and alters seasonal sediment dynamics, affecting cyclical fluvial material supply and year-round water-food-energy provisions to downstream communities. Here, we demonstrate seasonal sediment-transport regime shifts from the 1960s to 2000s in four cryosphere-fed rivers characterized by glacial, nival, pluvial, and mixed regimes, respectively. Spring sees a shift toward pluvial-dominated sediment transport due to less snowmelt and more erosive rainfall. Summer is characterized by intensified glacier meltwater pulses and pluvial events that exceptionally increase sediment fluxes. Our study highlights that the increases in hydroclimatic extremes and cryosphere degradation lead to amplified variability in fluvial fluxes and higher summer sediment peaks, which can threaten downstream river infrastructure safety and ecosystems and worsen glacial/pluvial floods. We further offer a monthly-scale sediment-availability-transport model that can reproduce such regime shifts and thus help facilitate sustainable reservoir operation and river management in wider cryospheric regions under future climate and hydrological change.

Science Advances↗
USGS1968

Uranium disequilibrium in groundwater: An isotope dilution approach in hydrologic investigations

The distribution and environmental disequilibrium patterns of naturally occurring uranium isotopes (U 234 and U 238 ) in waters of the Floridan aquifer suggest that variations in the ratios of isotopic activity and concentrations can be used quantitatively to evaluate mixing proportions of waters from differing sources. Uranium is probably unique in its potential for this approach, which seems to have general usefulness in hydrologic investigations.

Florida↗
USGS1996

Climatic and hydrologic oscillations in the Owens Lake basin and adjacent Sierra Nevada, California

Oxygen isotope and total inorganic carbon values of cored sediments from the Owens Lake basin, California, indicate that Owens Lake overflowed most of the time between 52,500 and 12,509 carbon-14 (14C) years before present (B.P.). Owens Lake desiccated during or after Heinrich event H1 and was hydrologically closed during Heinrich event H2. The magnetic susceptibility and organic carbon content of cored sediments indicate that about 19 Sierra Nevada glaciations occurred between 52,500 and 23,500 14C years B.P. Most of the glacial advances were accompanied by decreases in the amount of discharge reaching Owens Lake. Comparison of the timing of glaciation with the lithic record of North Atlantic core V23-81 indicates that the number of mountain glacial cycles and the number of North Atlantic lithic events were about equal between 39,000 and 23,500 14C years B.P.

Science↗
USGS1987

Playa-lake basins on the Southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico: Part II. A hydrologic model and mass-balance arguments for their development.

Hydrologic, geologic, geomorphic, and mass-balance data suggest that most of the ∼30,000 playa lake basins on the Southern High Plains have developed by a combination of dissolution of caliche and piping of surface material into the unsaturated zone rather than by eolian processes as has generally been stated. A conceptual model suggests that particulate organic material, much of which is sorbed on smectite clays, is carried downward from the surface into the unsaturated zone by recharging water. The organic material is oxidized to CO 2 , which dissolves in the water, forms carbonic acid, and dissolves lithologic carbonates. Because organic material is transported and oxidized deep in the unsaturated zone, CO 2 concentrations are much higher at depth than in the soil zone, and recharging water remains thermodynamically subsaturated with respect to carbonates and thus able to dissolve them throughout the unsaturated zone. Dissolution promotes lithologic instability, leading to piping and eluviation of material within the unsaturated zone. Playa basins expand laterally as recharge is concentrated at the edge of the playa floor because of lowered permeability in the center that results from accumulation of clays and other fine sediment. Mass-balance calculations of gas, liquid, and solid fluxes beneath a playa basin suggest that sufficient mass is transported to account for the volume of the depression. Particulate flux is estimated by relating it to the CO 2 flux out of the unsaturated zone. Solute flux is estimated from the difference between input values from the playa lake water and that observed in ground water. Gas flux is measured directly from gas samples at specific depths below the: surface.

Geological Society of America Bulletin↗
USGS2012

Hydrology of the unsaturated zone, Yucca Mountain, Nevada

The unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain was investigated as a possible site for the nation's first high-level nuclear waste repository. Scientific investigations included infiltration studies, matrix properties testing, borehole testing and monitoring, underground excavation and testing, and the development of conceptual and numerical models of the hydrologic processes at Yucca Mountain. Infiltration estimates by empirical and geochemical methods range from 0.2 to 1.4 mm/yr and 0.2–6.0 mm/yr, respectively. Infiltration estimates from numerical models range from 4.5 mm/yr to 17.6 mm/yr. Rock matrix properties vary vertically and laterally as the result of depositional processes and subsequent postdepositional alteration. Laboratory tests indicate that the average matrix porosity and hydraulic conductivity values for the main level of the proposed repository (Topopah Spring Tuff middle nonlithophysal zone) are 0.08 and 4.7 × 10 −12 m/s, respectively. In situ fracture hydraulic conductivity values are 3–6 orders of magnitude greater. The permeability of fault zones is approximately an order of magnitude greater than that of the surrounding rock unit. Water samples from the fault zones have tritium concentrations that indicate some component of postnuclear testing. Gas and water vapor movement through the unsaturated zone is driven by changes in barometric pressure, temperature-induced density differences, and wind effects. The subsurface pressure response to surface barometric changes is controlled by the distribution and interconnectedness of fractures, the presence of faults and their ability to conduct gas and vapor, and the moisture content and matrix permeability of the rock units. In situ water potential values are generally less than −0.2 MPa (−2 bar), and the water potential gradients in the Topopah Spring Tuff units are very small. Perched-water zones at Yucca Mountain are associated with the basal vitrophyre of the Topopah Spring Tuff or the Calico Hills bedded tuff. Thermal gradients in the unsaturated zone vary with location, and range from ~2.0 °C to 6.0 °C per 100 m; the variability appears to be associated with topography. Large-scale heater testing identified a heat-pipe signature at ~97 °C, and identified thermally induced and excavation-induced changes in the stress field. Elevated gas-phase CO 2 concentrations and a decrease in the pH of water from the condensation zone also were identified. Conceptual and numerical flow and transport models of Yucca Mountain indicate that infiltration is highly variable, both spatially and temporally. Flow in the unsaturated zone is predominately through fractures in the welded units of the Tiva Canyon and Topopah Spring Tuffs and predominately through the matrix in the Paintbrush Tuff nonwelded units and Calico Hills Formation. Isolated, transient, fast-flow paths, such as faults, do exist but probably carry only a small portion of the total liquid-water flux at Yucca Mountain. The Paintbrush Tuff nonwelded units act as a storage buffer for transient infiltration pulses. Faults may act as flow boundaries and/or fast pathways. Below the proposed repository horizon, low-permeability lithostratigraphic units of the Topopah Spring Tuff and/or the Calico Hills Formation may divert flow laterally to faults that act as conduits to the water table. Advective transport pathways are consistent with flow pathways. Matrix diffusion is the major mechanism for mass transfer between fractures and the matrix and may contribute to retardation of radionuclide transport when fracture flow is dominant. Sorption may retard the movement of radionuclides in the unsaturated zone; however, sorption on mobile colloids may enhance radionuclide transport. Dispersion is not expected to be a major transport mechanism in the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain. Natural analogue studies support the concepts that percolating water may be diverted around underground openings and that the percentage of infiltration that becomes seepage decreases as infiltration decreases.

Nevada↗
USGS2010

Coupled hydrology and biogeochemistry of Paleocene–Eocene coal beds, northern Gulf of Mexico

Thirty-six formation waters, gas, and microbial samples were collected and analyzed from natural gas and oil wells producing from the Paleocene to Eocene Wilcox Group coal beds and adjacent sandstones in north-central Louisiana, USA, to investigate the role hydrology plays on the generation and distribution of microbial methane. Major ion chemistry and Cl − Br relations of Wilcox Group formation waters suggest mixing of freshwater with halite-derived brines. High alkalinities (up to 47.8 meq/L), no detectable SO 4 , and elevated δ 13 C values of dissolved inorganic carbon (up to 20.5‰ Vienna Peedee belemnite [VPDB]) and CO 2 (up to 17.67‰ VPDB) in the Wilcox Group coals and adjacent sandstones indicate the dominance of microbial methanogenesis. The δ 13 C and δD values of CH 4 , and carbon isotope fractionation of CO 2 and CH 4 , suggest CO 2 reduction is the major methanogenic pathway. Geochemical indicators for methanogenesis drop off significantly at chloride concentrations above ∼1.7 mol/L, suggesting that high salinities inhibit microbial activity at depths greater than ∼1.6 km. Formation waters in the Wilcox Group contain up to 1.6% modern carbon (A 14 C) to at least 1690 m depth; the covariance of δD values of co-produced H 2 O and CH 4 indicate that the microbial methane was generated in situ with these Late Pleistocene or younger waters. The most enriched carbon isotope values for dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and CO 2 , and highest alkalinities, were detected in Wilcox Group sandstone reservoirs that were CO 2 flooded in the 1980s for enhanced oil recovery, leading to the intriguing hypothesis that CO 2 sequestration may actually enhance methanogenesis in organic-rich formations.

GSA Bulletin↗
USGS1990

Hydrology of lakes and wetlands

The existence of lakes and wetlands depends on the specific geologic setting that favors the ponding of water, and on the hydrologic processes that allow the body of water to persist at a given site. Lakes can occur only in topographic depressions, but wetlands occur in depressions, on flat areas, on slopes, and even on drainage divides. Lakes and wetlands have some common characteristics, but they differ in many aspects of water storage, water circulation, water loss to the atmosphere, and the thermal and chemical characteristics of their waters.

Book chapter↗
USGS2008

Hydrologic models of modern and fossil geothermal systems in the Great Basin: Genetic implications for epithermal Au-Ag and Carlin-type gold deposits

The Great Basin region in the western United States contains active geothermal systems, large epithermal Au-Ag deposits, and world-class Carlin-type gold deposits. Temperature profiles, fluid inclusion studies, and isotopic evidence suggest that modern and fossil hydrothermal systems associated with gold mineralization share many common features, including the absence of a clear magmatic fluid source, discharge areas restricted to fault zones, and remarkably high temperatures (>200 ??C) at shallow depths (200-1500 m). While the plumbing of these systems varies, geochemical and isotopic data collected at the Dixie Valley and Beowawe geothermal systems suggest that fluid circulation along fault zones was relatively deep (>5 km) and comprised of relatively unexchanged Pleistocene meteoric water with small (<2.5%) shifts from the meteoric water line (MWL). Many fossil ore-forming systems were also dominated by meteoric water, but usually exhibit ??18O fluid-rock interactions with larger shifts of 5???-20??? from the MWL. Here we present a suite of two-dimensional regional (100 km) and local (40-50 km) scale hydrologic models that we have used to study the plumbing of modern and Tertiary hydrothermal systems of the Great Basin. Geologically and geophysically consistent cross sections were used to generate somewhat idealized hydrogeologic models for these systems that include the most important faults, aquifers, and confining units in their approximate configurations. Multiple constraints were used, including enthalpy, ??18O, silica compositions of fluids and/or rocks, groundwater residence times, fluid inclusion homogenization temperatures, and apatite fission track anomalies. Our results suggest that these hydrothermal systems were driven by natural thermal convection along anisotropic, subvertical faults connected in many cases at depth by permeable aquifers within favorable lithostratigraphic horizons. Those with minimal fluid ?? 18O shifts are restricted to high-permeability fault zones and relatively small-scale (???5 km), single-pass flow systems (e.g., Beowawe). Those with intermediate to large isotopic shifts (e.g., epithermal and Carlin-type Au) had larger-scale (???15 km) loop convection cells with a greater component of flow through marine sedimentary rocks at lower water/rock ratios and greater endowments of gold. Enthalpy calculations constrain the duration of Carlin-type gold systems to probably <200 k.y. Shallow heat flow gradients and fluid silica concentrations suggest that the duration of the modern Beowawe system is <5 k.y. However, fluid flow at Beowawe during the Quaternary must have been episodic with a net duration of ???200 k.y. to account for the amount of silica in the sinter deposits. In the Carlin trend, fluid circulation extended down into Paleozoic siliciclastic rocks, which afforded more mixing with isotopically enriched higher enthalpy fluids. Computed fission track ages along the Carlin trend included the convective effects, and ranged between 91.6 and 35.3 Ma. Older fission track ages occurred in zones of groundwater recharge, and the younger ages occurred in discharge areas. This is largely consistent with fission track ages reported in recent studies. We found that either an amagmatic system with more permeable faults (10-11 m2) or a magmatic system with less permeable faults (10-13 m2) could account for the published isotopic and thermal data along the Carlin trend systems. Localized high heat flow beneath the Muleshoe fault was needed to match fl uid inclusion temperatures at Mule Canyon. However, both magmatic and amagmatic scenarios require the existence of deep, permeable faults to bring hot fluids to the near surface. ?? 2008 Geological Society of America.

Geosphere↗
USGS1966

Hydrology of limestone terranes in the coastal plain of the Southeastern United States

T he very productive limestone aquifers of Tertiary and Quaternary age in the Coastal Plain of the Southeastern States contain a water-table circulation system where aquifers are at or near the land surface; the Tertiary limestone unit is a homoclinal artesian system confined beneath younger beds in coastal areas. The Tertiary limestone has a total thickness of several thousand feet and ranges in age from Paleocene to Pliocene. The part of the limestone that represents a hydrologic unit, as much as 1000 feet thick, ranges in age from middle Eocene to middle Miocene. That unit is the principal artesian aquifer in Florida and southeastern Georgia. It is also an aquifer, but of lesser importance, in South Carolina, North Carolina, and Alabama. In southeastern Florida the Quaternary limestone forms a shallow, although highly productive, aquifer. In general, the Tertiary formations dip gently toward the coast, except where the regional dip is interrupted by folds such as the Cape Fear arch, the Ocala uplift, and the Chattahoochee anticline, or by faults such as those on the Ocala uplift. A piezometric map showing the head of water in the principal artesian aquifer in Florida and southeastern Georgia reveals chief areas of recharge where limestone crops out in interstream areas and where sinkholes breach overlying beds; it reveals principal discharge areas in certain stream valleys, springs, and offshore. Lateral movement of the water in the limestone is generally controlled by the hydraulic gradient to the nearest discharge area. The movement may be either controlled by or independent of faults and folds; it may be along joints for short distances. Solution by downward movement of water in the zone of aeration to the water table has formed vertical tubular openings or shafts. Lateral movement of the water from areas of recharge to areas of discharge has formed caves and other solution channels, chiefly in the upper part of the zone of saturation. Since they were formed, some caves have been drowned, and others have been exposed in the zone of aeration as the water rose and fell, chiefly in Pleistocene time. The principal aquifer in Florida probably has caves and solution channels comparable in size and extent to those of Mammoth Cave, Kentucky; however, only a small percentage of these are above the water table at the present time. In a large part of the region the most noticeable change in chemical quality of the water in the limestone resulting from circulation of water is the freshening accompanying removal of salty water from the aquifer. Changes in sea level during Pleistocene time have raised and lowered the water table; thus the position of the upper part of the zone of saturation, in which conditions were most favorable for solution and for the formation of cavities, has changed repeatedly. At the lowest stand of the Pleistocene sea, it is conceivable that the water level in part of the limestone in north-central Florida was a few hundred feet lower than at present. The present pattern of solution openings probably was developed in Pleistocene time.

Southeastern United States↗
USGS2020

Remarkable response of native fishes to invasive trout suppression varies with trout density, temperature, and annual hydrology

Recovery of imperiled fishes can be achieved through suppression of invasives, but outcomes may vary with environmental conditions. We studied the response of imperiled desert fishes to an invasive brown ( Salmo trutta ) and rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) suppression program in a Colorado River tributary, with natural flow and longitudinal variation in thermal characteristics. We investigated trends in fish populations related to suppression and tested hypotheses about the impacts of salmonid densities, hydrologic variation, and spatial–thermal gradients on the distribution and abundance of native fish species using zero-inflated generalized linear mixed effects models. Between 2012 and 2018, salmonids declined 89%, and native fishes increased dramatically (∼480%) once trout suppression surpassed ∼60%. Temperature and trout density were consistently retained in the top models predicting the abundance and distribution of native fishes. The greatest increases occurred in warmer reaches and in years with spring flooding. Surprisingly, given the evolution of native fishes in disturbance-prone systems, intense, monsoon-driven flooding limited native fish recruitment. Applied concertedly, invasive species suppression and efforts to mimic natural flow and thermal regimes may allow rapid and widespread native fish recovery.

Arizona↗
USGS2004

Hydrologic scales, cloud variability, remote sensing, and models: Implications for forecasting snowmelt and streamflow

Accurate prediction of available water supply from snowmelt is needed if the myriad of human, environmental, agricultural, and industrial demands for water are to be satisfied, especially given legislatively imposed conditions on its allocation. Robust retrievals of hydrologic basin model variables (e.g., insolation or areal extent of snow cover) provide several advantages over the current operational use of either point measurements or parameterizations to help to meet this requirement. Insolation can be provided at hourly time scales (or better if needed during rapid melt events associated with flooding) and at 1-km spatial resolution. These satellite-based retrievals incorporate the effects of highly variable (both in space and time) and unpredictable cloud cover on estimates of insolation. The insolation estimates are further adjusted for the effects of basin topography using a high- resolution digital elevation model prior to model input. Simulations of two Sierra Nevada rivers in the snowmelt seasons of 1998 and 1999 indicate that even the simplest improvements in modeled insolation can improve snowmelt simulations, with 10%–20% reductions in root-mean-square errors. Direct retrieval of the areal extent of snow cover may mitigate the need to rely entirely on internal calculations of this variable, a reliance that can yield large errors that are difficult to correct until long after the season is complete and that often leads to persistent underestimates or overestimates of the volumes of the water to operational reservoirs. Agencies responsible for accurately predicting available water resources from the melt of snowpack [e.g., both federal (the National Weather Service River Forecast Centers) and state (the California Department of Water Resources)] can benefit by incorporating concepts developed herein into their operational forecasting procedures.

Weather and Forecasting↗
USGS2011

Climatic controls on the snowmelt hydrology of the northern Rocky Mountains

The northern Rocky Mountains (NRMs) are a critical headwaters region with the majority of water resources originating from mountain snowpack. Observations showing declines in western U.S. snowpack have implications for water resources and biophysical processes in high-mountain environments. This study investigates oceanic and atmospheric controls underlying changes in timing, variability, and trends documented across the entire hydroclimatic-monitoring system within critical NRM watersheds. Analyses were conducted using records from 25 snow telemetry (SNOTEL) stations, 148 1 April snow course records, stream gauge records from 14 relatively unimpaired rivers, and 37 valley meteorological stations. Over the past four decades, midelevation SNOTEL records show a tendency toward decreased snowpack with peak snow water equivalent (SWE) arriving and melting out earlier. Temperature records show significant seasonal and annual decreases in the number of frost days (days ≤0°C) and changes in spring minimum temperatures that correspond with atmospheric circulation changes and surface–albedo feedbacks in March and April. Warmer spring temperatures coupled with increases in mean and variance of spring precipitation correspond strongly to earlier snowmeltout, an increased number of snow-free days, and observed changes in streamflow timing and discharge. The majority of the variability in peak and total annual snowpack and streamflow, however, is explained by season-dependent interannual-to-interdecadal changes in atmospheric circulation associated with Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures. Over recent decades, increased spring precipitation appears to be buffering NRM total annual streamflow from what would otherwise be greater snow-related declines in hydrologic yield. Results have important implications for ecosystems, water resources, and long-lead-forecasting capabilities.

Idaho, Montana↗
USGS2020

The NASA hydrological forecast system for food and water security applications

Many regions in Africa and the Middle East are vulnerable to drought and to water and food insecurity, motivating agency efforts such as the U.S. Agency for International Development’s (USAID) Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) to provide early warning of drought events in the region. Each year these warnings guide life-saving assistance that reaches millions of people. A new NASA multi-model, remote sensing-based hydrological forecasting and analysis system, NHyFAS, has been developed to support such efforts by improving the FEWS NET’s current early warning capabilities. NHyFAS derives its skill from two sources: (i) accurate initial conditions, as produced by an offline land modeling system through the application and/or assimilation of various satellite data (precipitation, soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage); and (ii) meteorological forcing data during the forecast period as produced by a state-of-the-art ocean-land-atmosphere forecast system. The land modeling framework used is the Land Information System (LIS), which employs a suite of land surface models, allowing multi-model ensembles and multiple data assimilation strategies to better estimate land surface conditions. An evaluation of NHyFAS shows that its one-to-five month forecasts successfully capture known historic drought events. The system also benefits from strong collaboration with end-user partners in Africa and the Middle East, who provide insights on strategies to formulate and communicate early warning indicators to water and food security communities. The additional lead time provided by this system will increase the speed, accuracy and efficacy of humanitarian disaster relief, helping to save lives and livelihoods.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society↗