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At least 1,297 records · Page 72Linked to original sources

Hydrologic and landscape database for the Cache and White River National Wildlife Refuges and contributing watersheds in Arkansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma

A hydrologic and landscape database was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, for the Cache River and White River National Wildlife Refuges and their contributing watersheds in Arkansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma. The database is composed of a set of ASCII files, Microsoft Access® files, Microsoft Excel® files, an Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) ArcGIS® geodatabase, ESRI ArcGRID® raster datasets, and an ESRI ArcReader® published map. The database was developed as an assessment and evaluation tool to use in examining refuge-specific hydrologic patterns and trends as related to water availability for refuge ecosystems, habitats, and target species; and includes hydrologic time-series data, statistics, and hydroecological metrics that can be used to assess refuge hydrologic conditions and the availability of aquatic and riparian habitat. Landscape data that describe the refuge physiographic setting and the locations of hydrologic-data collection stations are also included in the database. Categories of landscape data include land cover, soil hydrologic characteristics, physiographic features, geographic and hydrographic boundaries, hydrographic features, regional runoff estimates, and gaging-station locations. The database geographic extent covers three hydrologic subregions—the Lower Mississippi–St Francis (0802), the Upper White (1101), and the Lower Arkansas (1111)—within which human activities, climatic variation, and hydrologic processes can potentially affect the hydrologic regime of the refuges and adjacent areas. Database construction has been automated to facilitate periodic updates with new data. The database report (1) serves as a user guide for the database, (2) describes the data-collection, data-reduction, and data-analysis methods used to construct the database, (3) provides a statistical and graphical description of the database, and (4) provides detailed information on the development of analytical techniques designed to assess water availability for ecological needs.

Arkansas;Missouri;Oklahoma↗

Hydrologic, water-quality, and biological data for three water bodies, Texas Gulf Coastal Plain, 2000-2002

During July 2000–September 2002, the U.S. Geological Survey collected and analyzed site-specific hydrologic, water-quality, and biological data in Dickinson Bayou, Armand Bayou, and the San Bernard River in the Gulf Coastal Plain of Texas. Segments of the three water bodies are on the State 303(d) list. Continuous monitoring showed that seasonal variations in water temperature, specific conductance, pH, and dissolved oxygen in all three water bodies were similar to those observed at U.S. Geological Survey stations along the Texas Gulf Coast. In particular, water temperature and dissolved oxygen are inversely related. Periods of smallest dissolved oxygen concentrations generally occurred in the summer months when water temperatures were highest. Water-quality monitors were deployed at three depths in Dickinson Bayou. For periodically collected nutrients, the median concentration of ammonia nitrogen was largest in Dickinson Bayou and smallest in the San Bernard River. Median concentrations of ammonia plus organic nitrogen, nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen, and orthophosphorus were largest in Armand Bayou. The median concentration of each of the four nutrients was larger for high-flow samples than for low-flow samples. The largest individual nutrient concentrations occurred during spring and summer. Both median and individual concentrations of chlorophyll-a were largest for Armand Bayou; median concentrations of pheophyton were similar for all three water bodies, and individual concentrations were largest for Armand Bayou. Median densities of fecal coliform bacteria and E. coli bacteria were similar for all three water bodies. Flow conditions had minimal effect on concentrations of chlorophyll-a and pheophytin, but the largest bacteria densities were in samples collected during high flow. Yields of most nutrients tended to increase with distance downstream. Yields in the San Bernard River and tributaries were less than yields in Dickinson and Armand Bayous. For Dickinson and Armand Bayous, the most individuals and species of fish were collected at the most downstream main stem site; for the San Bernard River, the fewest individuals and species of fish were collected at the most downstream main stem site.

Texas↗

Using ensemble data assimilation to estimate transient hydrologic exchange flow under highly dynamic flow conditions

Quantifying dynamic hydrologic exchange flows (HEFs) within river corridors that experience high-frequency flow variations caused by dam regulations is important for understanding the biogeochemical processes at the river water and groundwater interfaces. Heat has been widely used as a tracer to infer steady-state flow velocities through analytical solutions of heat transport defined by the diurnal temperature signals. Under sub-daily dynamic flow conditions, however, such analytical solutions are not applicable due to the violation of their fundamental assumptions. In this study, we developed a data assimilation-based approach to estimate the sub-daily flux under highly dynamic flow conditions using multi-depth temperature observations at a 5-min resolution. If the hydraulic gradient is measured, Darcy's law was used to calculate the flux with permeability estimated from temperature responses below the riverbed. Otherwise, flux was estimated directly by assimilating multi-depth temperature data at 1- or 2-hr time intervals assuming one-dimensional flow and heat transport governing equation. By comparing estimated fluxes with model-generated synthetic truth, we demonstrated that both schemes have robust performance in estimating fluxes under highly dynamic flow conditions. This data assimilation-based flux estimation method was able to capture the vertical sub-daily fluxes using multi-depth high-resolution temperature data alone, even in the presence of multi-dimensional flow. This approach has been successfully applied to real field temperature data collected at the Hanford site, which experiences highly dynamic HEFs. Our study shows the promise of adopting distributed 1-D temperature monitoring to capture spatial and temporal exchange dynamics in river corridors at a watershed scale or beyond.

Washington↗

Regression equations for estimating flood flows for the 2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-Year recurrence intervals in Connecticut

Multiple linear-regression equations were developed to estimate the magnitudes of floods in Connecticut for recurrence intervals ranging from 2 to 500 years. The equations can be used for nonurban, unregulated stream sites in Connecticut with drainage areas ranging from about 2 to 715 square miles. Flood-frequency data and hydrologic characteristics from 70 streamflow-gaging stations and the upstream drainage basins were used to develop the equations. The hydrologic characteristics-drainage area, mean basin elevation, and 24-hour rainfall-are used in the equations to estimate the magnitude of floods. Average standard errors of prediction for the equations are 31.8, 32.7, 34.4, 35.9, 37.6 and 45.0 percent for the 2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively. Simplified equations using only one hydrologic characteristic-drainage area-also were developed. The regression analysis is based on generalized least-squares regression techniques. Observed flows (log-Pearson Type III analysis of the annual maximum flows) from five streamflow-gaging stations in urban basins in Connecticut were compared to flows estimated from national three-parameter and seven-parameter urban regression equations. The comparison shows that the three- and seven- parameter equations used in conjunction with the new statewide equations generally provide reasonable estimates of flood flows for urban sites in Connecticut, although a national urban flood-frequency study indicated that the three-parameter equations significantly underestimated flood flows in many regions of the country. Verification of the accuracy of the three-parameter or seven-parameter national regression equations using new data from Connecticut stations was beyond the scope of this study. A technique for calculating flood flows at streamflow-gaging stations using a weighted average also is described. Two estimates of flood flows - one estimate based on the log-Pearson Type III analyses of the annual maximum flows at the gaging station, and the other estimate from the regression equation - are weighted together based on the years of record at the gaging station and the equivalent years of record value determined from the regression. Weighted averages of flood flows for the 2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence intervals are tabulated for the 70 streamflow-gaging stations used in the regression analysis. Generally, weighted averages give the most accurate estimate of flood flows at gaging stations. An evaluation of the Connecticut's streamflow-gaging network was performed to determine whether the spatial coverage and range of geographic and hydrologic conditions are adequately represented for transferring flood characteristics from gaged to ungaged sites. Fifty-one of 54 stations in the current (2004) network support one or more flood needs of federal, state, and local agencies. Twenty-five of 54 stations in the current network are considered high-priority stations by the U.S. Geological Survey because of their contribution to the longterm understanding of floods, and their application for regionalflood analysis. Enhancements to the network to improve overall effectiveness for regionalization can be made by increasing the spatial coverage of gaging stations, establishing stations in regions of the state that are not well-represented, and adding stations in basins with drainage area sizes not represented. Additionally, the usefulness of the network for characterizing floods can be maintained and improved by continuing operation at the current stations because flood flows can be more accurately estimated at stations with continuous, long-term record.

Connecticut↗

Hourly and daily variation of sediment redox potential in tidal wetland sediments

Variation of electrochemical oxidation-reduction (redox) potential was examined in surface salt march sediments under conditions of flooding and tidal simulation in mesocosms and field sites. Time series were generated of redox potential measured in sediment profiles at 2-10 cm depth using combination Pt-Ag/AgCl (ORP) electrodes. Redox potential data were acquired at rapid rates (1-55 samples/h) over extended periods (3-104 days) along with similar times series of temperature (water, air, soil) and pH. It was found that redox potential vaired as a result of water level changes and was unrelated to diurnal changes in temperature or pH, the latter of which changed by <0.5 units over the tide cycles. In closed, hydrostatic microcosms isolated from atmospheric oxygen, development of negative redox potentials proceeded rapidly (>370 mV redox potential decrease in under 48 hours). Attenuatoin of microbial activity by [gamma] y-radiation and toxic chemicals elimintated this response. In tidal salt marsh mesocosms where the sediment-plant assemblages were exposed to a simulated diurnal tide, redox potenial oscillations of 40-300 mV amplitude were recoded that has the same periodicity as the flood-drain cycle. Periodic redoc potential time series were observed repeatedly in sediments receiving tidal pulsing but not in those sediments exposed to static hydrological conditions. Data collected over 12 days from a coastal marsh site experiencing diurnal tides showed similar fluctuations in redox potential. Data from the experimentents indicated that (a) redox potential can be a dynamic, nonlinear variable in coastal and estuarine wetland sediments over hourly and daily scales, and the designs of biogeochemical experiments should reflect this, (b) redox potential can change rapidly and signigicantly in coastal wetland sediments in response of flooding and draining, (c) microbial community processes are primarily determinants of the time course of redox potential in wetland sediments, and elimination of inhibition of microbial activity (e.g. by pollutants) can significantly alter that behavior, and (d) fast redox potential dynamics appear to be characteristic of sediments that experience changes in hydrology. The rapid redox potential changes observed in these systems indicated dynamic metabolic and biogeochemical conditions in the field, and confirmed that hourly and daily redox potential variations should be resolved in studies of sediment functioning.

Biological Science Report↗

Comparison of historical streamflows to 2013 Streamflows in the Williamson, Sprague, and Wood Rivers, Upper Klamath Lake Basin, Oregon

In 2013, the Upper Klamath Lake Basin, Oregon, experienced a dry spring, resulting in an executive order declaring a state of drought emergency in Klamath County. The 2013 drought limited the water supply and led to a near-total cessation of surface-water diversions for irrigation above Upper Klamath Lake once regulation was implemented. These conditions presented a unique opportunity to understand the effects of water right regulation on streamflows. The effects of regulation of diversions were evaluated by comparing measured 2013 streamflow with data from hydrologically similar years. Years with spring streamflow similar to that in 2013 measured at the Sprague River gage at Chiloquin from water years 1973 to 2012 were used to define a Composite Index Year (CIY; with diversions) for comparison to measured 2013 streamflows (no diversions). The best-fit 6 years (1977, 1981, 1990, 1991, 1994, and 2001) were used to determine the CIY. Two streams account for most of the streamflow into Upper Klamath Lake: the Williamson and Wood Rivers. Most streamflow into the lake is from the Williamson River Basin, which includes the Sprague River. Because most of the diversion regulation affecting the streamflow of the Williamson River occurred in the Sprague River Basin, and because of uncertainties about historical flows in a major diversion above the Williamson River gage, streamflow data from the Sprague River were used to estimate the change in streamflow from regulation of diversions for the Williamson River Basin. Changes in streamflow outside of the Sprague River Basin were likely minor relative to total streamflow. The effect of diversion regulation was evaluated using the “Baseflow Method,” which compared 2013 baseflow to baseflow of the CIY. The Baseflow Method reduces the potential effects of summer precipitation events on the calculations. A similar method using streamflow produced similar results, however, despite at least one summer precipitation event. The result of the analysis estimates that streamflow from the Williamson River Basin to Upper Klamath Lake increased by approximately 14,100 acre-feet between July 1 and September 30 relative to prior dry years as a result of regulation of surface-water diversions in 2013. Quantifying the change in streamflow from regulation of diversion for the Wood River Basin was likely less accurate due to a lack of long-term streamflow data. An increase in streamflow from regulation of diversions in the Wood River Basin of roughly 5,500 acre-feet was estimated by comparing the average August and September streamflow in 2013 with historical August and September streamflow. Summing the results of the estimated streamflow gain of the Williamson River Basin (14,100 acre-feet) and Wood River (5,500 acre-feet) gives a total estimated increase in streamflow into Upper Klamath Lake resulting from the July 1–September 2013 regulation of diversions of approximately 19,600 acre-feet.

Oregon↗

Hydroclimatic regimes: a distributed water-balance framework for hydrologic assessment, classification, and management

Runoff-based indicators of terrestrial water availability are appropriate for humid regions, but have tended to limit our basic hydrologic understanding of drylands – the dry-subhumid, semiarid, and arid regions which presently cover nearly half of the global land surface. In response, we introduce an indicator framework that gives equal weight to humid and dryland regions, accounting fully for both vertical (precipitation + evapotranspiration) and horizontal (groundwater + surface-water) components of the hydrologic cycle in any given location – as well as fluxes into and out of landscape storage. We apply the framework to a diverse hydroclimatic region (the conterminous USA) using a distributed water-balance model consisting of 53 400 networked landscape hydrologic units. Our model simulations indicate that about 21% of the conterminous USA either generated no runoff or consumed runoff from upgradient sources on a mean-annual basis during the 20th century. Vertical fluxes exceeded horizontal fluxes across 76% of the conterminous area. Long-term-average total water availability (TWA) during the 20th century, defined here as the total influx to a landscape hydrologic unit from precipitation, groundwater, and surface water, varied spatially by about 400 000-fold, a range of variation ~100 times larger than that for mean-annual runoff across the same area. The framework includes but is not limited to classical, runoff-based approaches to water-resource assessment. It also incorporates and reinterprets the green- and blue-water perspective now gaining international acceptance. Implications of the new framework for several areas of contemporary hydrology are explored, and the data requirements of the approach are discussed in relation to the increasing availability of gridded global climate, land-surface, and hydrologic data sets.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗

Runoff, sediment transport, and water quality in a northern Illinois agricultural watershed before urban development, 1979-81

A study designed to quantify and evaluate changes in runoff and sediment transport attributable to construction activities during urban development of a watershed required identification of pre-construction hydrologic conditions. Data collected before construction on a 2.81 sq m (7.28 sq km) agricultural watershed (upper Spring Creek) near Rockford, IL, show that during a 2-year period ending June 30, 1981, 2,890 tons (2,620 Mg) of suspended sediment were transported from the watershed. Of the 2 ,890 tons (2,620 Mg), 2,690 tons (2,440 Mg) or 93.1 % were transported during a storm in a 46.6-hour period of June 13-14, 1981. Runoff from a 0.031 sq m (0.080 sq km) subbasin (Spring Creek tributary) transported 33.9 tons (30.9 Mg) of suspended sediment during a 3.2-hour storm period on June 13, 1981. Regression models relating storm suspended-sediment yields and peak-water discharge per square mile for upper Spring Creek and Spring Creek tributary have average standard errors of 57 and 24 %, respectively. Trace amounts of currently banned pesticides, including Aldrin and DDT, were detected in streambed material samples. Documented sediment yields, chemical quality, and relations between runoff and sediment discharge provide baseline information for future evaluation of hydrologic conditions in the watershed. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Estimating discharge and nonpoint source nitrate loading to streams from three end‐member pathways using high‐frequency water quality data

The myriad hydrologic and biogeochemical processes taking place in watersheds occurring across space and time are integrated and reflected in the quantity and quality of water in streams and rivers. Collection of high‐frequency water quality data with sensors in surface waters provides new opportunities to disentangle these processes and quantify sources and transport of water and solutes in the coupled groundwater‐surface water system. A new approach for separating the streamflow hydrograph into three components was developed and coupled with high‐frequency nitrate data to estimate time‐variable nitrate loads from chemically dilute quick flow, chemically concentrated quick flow, and slowflow groundwater end‐member pathways for periods of up to 2 years in a groundwater‐dominated and a quick‐flow‐dominated stream in central Wisconsin, using only streamflow and in‐stream water quality data. The dilute and concentrated quick flow end‐members were distinguished using high‐frequency specific conductance data. Results indicate that dilute quick flow contributed less than 5% of the nitrate load at both sites, whereas 89 ± 8% of the nitrate load at the groundwater‐dominated stream was from slowflow groundwater, and 84 ± 25% of the nitrate load at the quick‐flow‐dominated stream was from concentrated quick flow. Concentrated quick flow nitrate concentrations varied seasonally at both sites, with peak concentrations in the winter that were 2–3 times greater than minimum concentrations during the growing season. Application of this approach provides an opportunity to assess stream vulnerability to nonpoint source nitrate loading and expected stream responses to current or changing conditions and practices in watersheds.

Water Resources Research↗

Digital surfaces and hydrogeologic data for the Floridan aquifer system in Florida and in parts of Georgia, Alabama, and South Carolina

A digital dataset for the Floridan aquifer system in Florida and in parts of Georgia, Alabama, and South Carolina was developed from selected reports published as part of the Regional Aquifer-System Analysis (RASA) Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in the 1980s. These reports contain maps and data depicting the extent and elevation of both time-stratigraphic and hydrogeologic units of which the aquifer system is composed, as well as data on hydrology, meteorology, and aquifer properties. The three primary reports used for this dataset compilation were USGS Professional Paper 1403-B (Miller, 1986), Professional Paper 1403-C (Bush and Johnston, 1988), and USGS Open-File Report 88-86 (Miller, 1988). Paper maps from Professional Papers 1403-B and 1403-C were scanned and georeferenced to the North American Datum of 1927 (NAD27) using the Lambert Conformal Conic projection (standard parallels 33 and 45 degrees, central longitude -96 degrees, central latitude 39 degrees). Once georeferenced, tracing of pertinent line features contained in each image (for example, contours and faults) was facilitated by specialized software using algorithms that automated much of the process. Resulting digital line features were then processed using standard geographic information system (GIS) software to remove artifacts from the digitization process and to verify and update attribute tables. The digitization process for polygonal features (for example, outcrop areas and unit extents) was completed by hand using GIS software.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina↗

Hydrologic reconnaissance and summary of existing data on surface and ground-water resources in the Missouri River valley in Woodbury and Monona counties, Iowa, 1985

A hydrologic reconnaissance of the Missouri River valley in western Iowa was begun in 1985. The study area is about 400 sq mi of Missouri River flood plain used mainly for agricultural purposes and is located mostly in parts of Woodbury and Monona Counties, Iowa. The reconnaissance was conducted to determine the extent of hydrologic information available for the study area and to determine if the existing data base is sufficient to support an interpretive investigation to quantify the groundwater/surface water relationships in the area. Extensive information concerning the surface water resources of the area, particularly the Missouri River, is available. Very little information concerning the geometry, hydraulic characteristics and groundwater flow relationships in the alluvial aquifer is available. Information needs to be collected to create an adequate data base for future simulation of groundwater flow and to calibrate any estimates of flow. (USGS)

Open-File Report↗

Northern part, Ten Mile and Taunton River basins

The northern part of the Ten Mile and Taunton River basins is an area of about 195 square miles within Norfolk, Plymouth, and Bristol Counties in southeastern Massachusetts. The northern boundary of the area (plate 1) is the drainage divide separating these basins from that of the Charles, Neponset, and Weymouth River basins. The western boundary is, for the most part, the divide separating the basins from the Blackstone River basin. The eastern boundary is at the edge of the Brockton-Pembroke area (Petersen, 1962; Petersen and Shaw, 1961). The southern boundary in Seekonk is the northern limit of the East Providence quadrangle, for which a ground-water map was prepared by Allen and Gorman (1959); eastward, the southern boundaries of the city of Attleboro and the towns of Norton, Easton, and West Bridgewater form the southern boundary of the area. This report is one of two prepared by the Geological Survey for the Water Resources Commission. The principal purpose of this report is to make available the basic data on which the other, a map showing availability of ground water, is based. This basic-data report also can be used by engineers, planners, and others interested in or responsible for water-resources planning to determine the materials to be encountered (tables 3 and 4) and the yields which may be obtained from wells and test holes (tables 1 and 2) in the stratified sand and gravel that are the principal source of ground water and in bedrock. Partial and complete chemical analyses (tables 7 and 8) of these test holes and of some privately-owned wells provide information on the general quality of the water for domestic and other uses. A tabulation of existing municipal supplies, their capacity, production (table 5), and chemical quality of the water (table 6) may be used for regional planning purposes. Water-level measurements (figure 1) can be used to determine the annual fluctuations of the water table in certain types of materials. Seismic work (table 9) in the Canoe River valley, Norton, and test drilling with a power augur (tables 2 and 4) were done for the Geological Survey as part of the investigation.

Massachusetts↗

Hydrologic implications of GRACE satellite data in the Colorado River Basin

Use of GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellites for assessing global water resources is rapidly expanding. Here we advance application of GRACE satellites by reconstructing long-term total water storage (TWS) changes from ground-based monitoring and modeling data. We applied the approach to the Colorado River Basin which has experienced multiyear intense droughts at decadal intervals. Estimated TWS declined by 94 km 3 during 1986–1990 and by 102 km 3 during 1998–2004, similar to the TWS depletion recorded by GRACE (47 km 3 ) during 2010–2013. Our analysis indicates that TWS depletion is dominated by reductions in surface reservoir and soil moisture storage in the upper Colorado basin with additional reductions in groundwater storage in the lower basin. Groundwater storage changes are controlled mostly by natural responses to wet and dry cycles and irrigation pumping outside of Colorado River delivery zones based on ground-based water level and gravity data. Water storage changes are controlled primarily by variable water inputs in response to wet and dry cycles rather than increasing water use. Surface reservoir storage buffers supply variability with current reservoir storage representing ∼2.5 years of available water use. This study can be used as a template showing how to extend short-term GRACE TWS records and using all available data on storage components of TWS to interpret GRACE data, especially within the context of droughts.

Water Resources Research↗

Evaluation of habitat suitability index models by global sensitivity and uncertainty analyses: a case study for submerged aquatic vegetation

Habitat suitability index (HSI) models are commonly used to predict habitat quality and species distributions and are used to develop biological surveys, assess reserve and management priorities, and anticipate possible change under different management or climate change scenarios. Important management decisions may be based on model results, often without a clear understanding of the level of uncertainty associated with model outputs. We present an integrated methodology to assess the propagation of uncertainty from both inputs and structure of the HSI models on model outputs (uncertainty analysis: UA) and relative importance of uncertain model inputs and their interactions on the model output uncertainty (global sensitivity analysis: GSA). We illustrate the GSA/UA framework using simulated hydrology input data from a hydrodynamic model representing sea level changes and HSI models for two species of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in southwest Everglades National Park: Vallisneria americana (tape grass) and Halodule wrightii (shoal grass). We found considerable spatial variation in uncertainty for both species, but distributions of HSI scores still allowed discrimination of sites with good versus poor conditions. Ranking of input parameter sensitivities also varied spatially for both species, with high habitat quality sites showing higher sensitivity to different parameters than low-quality sites. HSI models may be especially useful when species distribution data are unavailable, providing means of exploiting widely available environmental datasets to model past, current, and future habitat conditions. The GSA/UA approach provides a general method for better understanding HSI model dynamics, the spatial and temporal variation in uncertainties, and the parameters that contribute most to model uncertainty. Including an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in modeling efforts as part of the decision-making framework will result in better-informed, more robust decisions.

Florida↗

EverVIEW: a visualization platform for hydrologic and Earth science gridded data

The EverVIEW Data Viewer is a cross-platform desktop application that combines and builds upon multiple open source libraries to help users to explore spatially-explicit gridded data stored in Network Common Data Form (NetCDF). Datasets are displayed across multiple side-by-side geographic or tabular displays, showing colorized overlays on an Earth globe or grid cell values, respectively. Time-series datasets can be animated to see how water surface elevation changes through time or how habitat suitability for a particular species might change over time under a given scenario. Initially targeted toward Florida's Everglades restoration planning, EverVIEW has been flexible enough to address the varied needs of large-scale planning beyond Florida, and is currently being used in biological planning efforts nationally and internationally.

Computers & Geosciences↗

Projections of the Ganges-Brahmaputra precipitation: downscaled from GCM predictors

Downscaling Global Climate Model (GCM) projections of future climate is critical for impact studies. Downscaling enables use of GCM experiments for regional scale impact studies by generating regionally specific forecasts connecting global scale predictions and regional scale dynamics. We employed the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) to downscale 21st century precipitation for two data-sparse hydrologically challenging river basins in South Asia—the Ganges and the Brahmaputra. We used CGCM3.1 by Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis version 3.1 predictors in downscaling the precipitation. Downscaling was performed on the basis of established relationships between historical Global Summary of Day observed precipitation records from 43 stations and National Center for Environmental Prediction re-analysis large scale atmospheric predictors. Although the selection of predictors was challenging during the set-up of SDSM, they were found to be indicative of important physical forcings in the basins. The precipitation of both basins was largely influenced by geopotential height: the Ganges precipitation was modulated by the U component of the wind and specific humidity at 500 and 1000 h Pa pressure levels; whereas, the Brahmaputra precipitation was modulated by the V component of the wind at 850 and 1000 h Pa pressure levels. The evaluation of the SDSM performance indicated that model accuracy for reproducing precipitation at the monthly scale was acceptable, but at the daily scale the model inadequately simulated some daily extreme precipitation events. Therefore, while the downscaled precipitation may not be the suitable input to analyze future extreme flooding or drought events, it could be adequate for analysis of future freshwater availability. Analysis of the CGCM3.1 downscaled precipitation projection with respect to observed precipitation reveals that the precipitation regime in each basin may be significantly impacted by climate change. Precipitation during and after the monsoon is likely to increase in both basins under the A1B and A2 emission scenarios; whereas, the pre-monsoon precipitation is likely to decrease. Peak monsoon precipitation is likely to shift from July to August, and may impact the livelihoods of large rural populations linked to subsistence agriculture in the basins. Uncertainty analysis of the downscaled precipitation indicated that the uncertainty in the downscaled precipitation was less than the uncertainty in the original CGCM3.1 precipitation; hence, the CGCM3.1 downscaled precipitation was a better input for the regional hydrological impact studies. However, downscaled precipitation from multiple GCMs is suggested for comprehensive impact studies.

Brahmaputra;Ganges↗

Evaluating environmental change and behavioral decision-making for sustainability policy using an agent-based model: A case study for the Smoky Hill River Watershed, Kansas

Sustainability has been at the forefront of the environmental research agenda of the integrated anthroposphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere since the last century and will continue to be critically important for future environmental science. However, linking humans and the environment through effective policy remains a major challenge for sustainability research and practice. Here we address this gap using an agent-based model (ABM) for a coupled natural and human systems in the Smoky Hill River Watershed (SHRW), Kansas, USA. For this freshwater-dependent agricultural watershed with a highly variable flow regime influenced by human-induced land-use and climate change, we tested the support for an environmental policy designed to conserve and protect fish biodiversity in the SHRW. We develop a proof of concept interdisciplinary ABM that integrates field data on hydrology, ecology (fish richness), social-psychology (value-belief-norm) and economics, to simulate human agents' decisions to support environmental policy. The mechanism to link human behaviors to environmental changes is the social-psychological sequence identified by the value-belief-norm framework and is informed by hydrological and fish ecology models. Our results indicate that (1) cultural factors influence the decision to support the policy; (2) a mechanism modifying social-psychological factors can influence the decision-making process; (3) there is resistance to environmental policy in the SHRW, even under potentially extreme climate conditions; and (4) the best opportunities for policy acceptance were found immediately after extreme environmental events. The modeling approach presented herein explicitly links biophysical and social science has broad generality for sustainability problems.

Kansas↗

The relation of geogenic contaminants to groundwater age, aquifer hydrologic position, water type, and redox conditions in Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plain aquifers, eastern and south-central USA

Groundwater age distributions developed from carbon-14 (14C), tritium (3H), and helium-4 (4He) concentrations, along with aquifer hydrologic position, water type, and redox conditions, were compared to geogenic contaminants of concern (GCOC) from 252 public-supply wells in six Atlantic and Gulf Coastal Plain unconsolidated-sediment aquifers. Concentrations of one or more GCOCs in 168 (67%) wells exceeded MCLs (maximum contaminant levels), SMCLs (secondary MCLs), or HBSLs (health-based screening levels). Human-health benchmark thresholds (MCLs or HBSLs) were exceeded in 31 (12%) wells, and included 0.8% for fluoride (F), 2.4% for arsenic (As), 4% for lead-210 (210Pb), and 4.8% for polonium-210 (210Po). Values of pH increase with age and were outside the SMCL in 31% of wells (23% < 6.5 and 7.5% > 8.5, SMCL). Among GCOCs with concentrations that increased significantly with groundwater age, the frequency of sentry threshold exceedances (i.e., one-half of MCL, SMCL, or HBSL) included 40% for dissolved solids (DS), 12% for chloride (Cl), 3.6% for F, 4.4% for As, and 9.1% for 210Po. Iron (Fe) concentrations did not correlate with groundwater age but exceeded sentry thresholds in 29% of wells. Groundwater age, water types, redox, pH, and GCOCs varied because of unique hydrogeologic features of the aquifers (recharge locations and geometry). As expected, primarily confined aquifers had young, oxic, low to near-neutral pH water near the outcrop (recharge area), and older, reduced, high pH water deeper and farther along flow paths. However, unique aquifer hydrogeologic conditions, such as multiple-recharge zones produced anomalous patterns of young and old groundwater at varying depths and locations along flow paths. Evidence for this variability is seen in disequilibrium patterns in the progression of the chemical evolution of groundwater with hydrologic position. When hydrogeologic differences are considered, groundwater age combined with hydrologic-position data, can provide a strong basis for inferring potential occurrence of GCOCs.

Gulf Coastal Plain aquifers↗