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At least 1,297 records · Page 72Linked to original sources
USGS2006

Effect of tree line advance on carbon storage in NW Alaska

We investigated the size, distribution, and temporal dynamics of ecosystem carbon (C) pools in an area of recent tree line advance, northwest Alaska. Repeat aerial photographs show forest cover increased ???10% in our study area since 1949. We sampled C pools of four principal ecosystem types, tussock tundra, shrub tundra, woodland, and forest, all located on a 600-800 year old river terrace. Significant differences between ecosystem C pools, both above ground and below ground existed. Tundra sites store >22.2 kg C/m2, shrub tundra sites and woodland sites store 9.7 kg C/m2 and 14.3 kg C/m2, respectively, and forest sites store 14.4 kg C/m2. Landscape variation of total ecosystem C was primarily due to organic soil C and was secondarily due to C stored in trees. Soil C/N profiles of shrub tundra sites and woodland sites showed similarities with forest site soils at surface and tundra site soils at depth. We hypothesize that tundra systems transformed to forest systems in this area under a progression of permafrost degradation and enhanced drainage. On the basis of C pool estimates for the different ecosystem types, conversion of tundra sites to forest may have resulted in a net loss of > 7.8 kg C/m2, since aboveground C gains were more than offset by belowground C losses to decomposition in the tundra sites. Tree line advance therefore might not increase C storage in high-latitude ecosystems and thus might not, as previously suggested, act as a negative feedback to warming. Key to this hypothesis and to its projection to future climate response is the fate of soil carbon upon warming and permafrost drainage. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research G: Biogeosciences↗
USGS2010

Predicting regime shifts in flow of the Colorado River

The effects of continued global warming on water resources are a concern for water managers and stake holders. In the western United States, where the combined climatic demand and consumptive use of water is equal to or greater than the natural supply of water for some locations, there is growing concern regarding the sustainability of future water supplies. In addition to the adverse effects of warming on water supply, another issue for water managers is accounting for, and managing, the effects of natural climatic variability, particularly persistently dry and wet periods. Analyses of paleo-reconstructions of Upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) flow demonstrate that severe sustained droughts, and persistent pluvial periods, are a recurring characteristic of hydroclimate in the Colorado River basin. Shifts between persistently dry and wet regimes (e.g., decadal to multi-decadal variability (D2M)) have important implications for water supply and water management. In this study paleo-reconstructions of UCRB flow are used to compute the risks of shifts between persistently wet and dry regimes given the length of time in a specific regime. Results indicate that low frequency variability of hydro-climatic conditions and the statistics that describe this low frequency variability can be useful to water managers by providing information about the risk of shifting from one hydrologic regime to another. To manage water resources in the future water managers will have to understand the joint hydrologic effects of natural climate variability and global warming. These joint effects may produce future hydrologic conditions that are unprecedented in both the instrumental and paleoclimatic records.

Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada,↗
USGS2024

Pollen in polar ice implies eastern Canadian forest dynamics diverged from climate after European settlement

Rapid warming and human exploitation threaten boreal forests. Understanding links among vegetation, climate, and people in this vast biome requires highly resolved long-term records that integrate regional inputs. We developed an 850-year pollen-based record of supraregional vegetation change using a southern Greenland ice core and atmospheric modeling that identified the boreal and mixed-conifer forests of eastern Canada as the dominant pollen source regions. Conifer pollen increased ∼1400 CE at the onset of the cooler and drier Little Ice Age. A subsequent decline began ∼1650 CE and a statistically significant pollen change after 1760 CE suggests ecological consequences of the Little Ice Age cooling and initial human exploitation that persisted until recent decades. These supraregional changes are broadly consistent with local records and demonstrate intensification of human impacts on northern forests, suggesting a shift from a climate-modulated to an increasingly human-controlled system during recent centuries.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2012

Eolian features in the Western Desert of Egypt and some applications to Mars

Relations of landform types to wind regimes, bedrock composition, sediment supply, and topography are shown by field studies and satellite photographs of the Western Desert of Egypt. This desert, which lies at the core of the largest hyperarid region on earth, provides analogs of Martian wind-formed features. These include sand dunes, alternating light and dark streaks, knob ‘shadows,’ and yardangs. Surface particles have been segregated by wind into deposits (dunes, sand sheets, and light streaks) that can be differentiated by their grain size distributions, surface shapes, and colors. Throughgoing sand of mostly fine to medium grain size is migrating southward in longitudinal dune belts and barchan chains whose long axes lie parallel to the prevailing northerly winds, but topographic variations such as scarps and depressions strongly influence the zones of deposition and dune morphology. Sand from the longitudinal dunes on the plains is commonly redistributed into barchans in the depressions. These barchans are generally simple crescents that are morphologically similar to many of the dunes seen on Viking orbiter pictures of the north polar sand sea on mars. Light streaks are depositional features consisting of dune belts and elongate sheets of coarse to medium sand and granules. Intervening dark streaks are erosional features consisting of strips of desert-varnished bedrock and lag gravel surfaces exposed between the sand deposits. The shape of both light and dark streaks is controlled by wind flow around topographic highs. Dark zones (shadows) in the lee of mountains, hills, and knobs are erosional products from the topographic highs; they change shape only in response to movement of the adjacent lighter-colored sand deposits. Streamlined yardangs carved in crystalline limestone constitute one of the largest yardang fields on earth. Yardangs occur also in sandstone of the Nubian Series and in lacustrine sediments. The variables that affect the patterns of wind erosion and deposition in the Western Desert are topographic effects on wind velocities and directions, resistance of the bedrock, sand supply, and climatic change with time; vegetation is essentially absent and is not a controlling factor.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗
USGS2018

Deglaciation and postglacial vegetation history of the West Mountains, west-central Idaho, U.S.A.

The West Mountains, west-central Idaho, were deglaciated before ca. 11,500 BP, as indicated by radiocarbon ages and Glacier Peak tephra, at several sites in cirques. Pollen analysis of a sediment core, and plant macrofossils from sediments recovered from the cirque at the head of Van Wyck Creek, indicate that a closed spruce-pine forest surrounded the site from ca. 11,500 to 9800 BP. Early in this period, spruce (probably krummholz) was already growing near the present-day altitudinal limit of large upright spruce. Hence, the climate during this period was significantly warmer than before 11,500 BP. Between ca. 9800 and 3200 BP the climate was warmer and drier than present. Pollen data indicate that from ca. 9300 to the time of Mazama tephra deposition (ca. 6700 BP), the climate was warmer and drier than at any time since 11,500 BP. From ca. 6700 to 3200 BP there was a small decrease in temperature with a minor increase in effective moisture. Beginning ca. 3200 BP, the climate was characterized by cooler temperatures and more mesic conditions. Modern plant communities were established by ca. 1500 BP.

Idaho↗
USGS2014

Abandoned floodplain plant communities along a regulated dryland river

Rivers and their floodplains worldwide have changed dramatically over the last century because of regulation by dams, flow diversions and channel stabilization. Floodplains no longer inundated by river flows following dam-induced flood reduction comprise large areas of bottomland habitat, but the effects of abandonment on plant communities are not well understood. Using a hydraulic flow model, geomorphic mapping and field surveys, we addressed the following questions along the Bill Williams River, Arizona: (i) What per cent of the bottomland do abandoned floodplains comprise? and (ii) Are abandoned floodplains quantitatively different from adjacent xeric and riparian surfaces in terms of vegetation composition and surface sediment? We found that nearly 70% of active channel and floodplain area was abandoned following dam installation. Abandoned floodplains along the Bill Williams River tend to be similar to each other yet distinct from neighbouring habitats: they have been altered physically from their historic state, leading to distinct combinations of surface sediments, hydrology and plant communities. Abandoned floodplains may transition to xeric communities over time but are likely to retain some riparian qualities as long as there is access to relatively shallow ground water. With expected increases in water demand and drying climatic conditions in many regions, these surfaces and associated vegetation will continue to be extensive in riparian landscapes worldwide

Arizona↗
USGS2023

Integrated analysis shows how the effects of extreme flooding events propagate through fish communities to impact amphibians

Research Highlight: Davis, C. L., Walls, S. C., Barichivich, W. J., Brown, M. E., & Miller, D. A. (2022). Disentangling direct and indirect effects of extreme events on coastal wetland communities. Journal of Animal Ecology , https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13874 . Catastrophic events such as floods, hurricanes, winter storms, droughts and wildfires increasingly touch our lives either directly or indirectly. These events draw our attention to the seriousness of changes in climate not only to human well-being but also to the integrity of ecological systems upon which we depend. Understanding the impacts of extreme events on ecological systems requires the ability to characterize the cascading effects of environmental changes on the environments in which organisms live and the altered biological interactions produced. This scientific ambition represents no small challenge for the study of animal communities, which are typically difficult to census as well as dynamic in time and space. Davis et al. (2022) in a recent study in the Journal of Animal Ecology examined the amphibian and fish communities found in depressional coastal wetlands to better understand how they respond to major rainfall and flooding events. Data from the U.S. Geological Survey's Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative provided an 8-year record of observations as well as environmental measurements. For this study, the authors integrated techniques for assessing the dynamics of animal populations with a Bayesian implementation of structural equation modelling. Using their integrated methodological approach permitted the authors to reveal the direct and indirect effects of extreme weather events on co-occurring amphibian and fish communities while accounting for observational uncertainty and temporal variation in population-level processes. Their findings indicate that the most prominent effects of flooding on the amphibian community were caused by changes in the fish community that led to increased predation and resource competition. In their conclusions, the authors emphasize the importance of understanding networks of abiotic and biotic effects if we are to predict and mitigate the influence of extreme weather events.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗
USGS2025

Increased soil greenhouse gas emissions from the combined use of cover crops and no‐tillage in producer‐ managed fields

Cover crop adoption offers multiple benefits and climate mitigation potential for agroecosystems, but is still an underutilized conservation practice. Recently, the combined use of cover cropping plus no-tillage (CCNT) has been increasingly promoted to achieve its synergistic effectiveness. Yet, how this combined practice affects soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emission remains a topic of debate. Existing studies are predominantly based on research-managed settings and often fail to assess all three major GHGs of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), and methane (CH 4 ). To address these knowledge gaps, this study conducted a 30-month monitoring from producer-managed fields to quantify the soil greenhouse gas responses to CCNT compared to no-tillage (NT) alone. The findings showed that CCNT increased the soil global warming potential (GWP) by 15.2% relative to NT. CO 2 is the main contributor, accounting for over 91.7% of the total GWP. On average, the daily fluxes of CO 2 , N 2 O, and CH 4 were increased by 16.2%, 32.3%, and 55.6% under CCNT, respectively. Meteorological variables explained 85.3% of the CO 2 increase and 46.1% of the N 2 O increase associated with CCNT. Furthermore, two types of CCNT practices differed in GHG emission responses, though both strategies significantly reduced nitrogen losses. These quantitative results, derived from actual production systems, provide informed decision-making among local producers regarding the adoption of cover crops. Moreover, this field-based evidence offers a robust empirical foundation for future modeling efforts aimed at assessing the ecological benefits of cover crops under varying climatic and soil conditions.

Indiana↗
USGS2015

Formulating the American Geophysical Union's Scientific Integrity and Professional Ethics Policy: Challenges and lessons learned

Creating an ethics policy for a large, diverse geosciences organization is a challenge, especially in the midst of the current contentious dialogue in the media related to such issues as climate change, sustaining natural resources, and responding to natural hazards. In 2011, the American Geophysical Union (AGU) took on this challenge, creating an Ethics Task Force to update their ethics policies to better support their new Strategic Plan and respond to the changing scientific research environment. Dialogue with AGU members and others during the course of creating the new policy unveiled some of the following issues to be addressed. Scientific results and individual scientists are coming under intense political and public scrutiny, with the efficacy of the science being questioned. In some cases, scientists are asked to take sides and/or provide opinions on issues beyond their research, impacting their objectivity. Pressure related to competition for funding and the need to publish high quality and quantities of papers has led to recent high-profile plagiarism, data fabrication, and conflict of interest cases. The complexities of a continuously advancing digital environment for conducting, reviewing, and publishing science has raised concerns over the ease of plagiarism, fabrication, falsification, inappropriate peer review, and the need for better accessibility of data and methods. Finally, students and scientists need consistent education and encouragement on the importance of ethics and integrity in scientific research. The new AGU Scientific Integrity and Ethics Policy tries to address these issues and provides an inspirational code of conduct to encourage a responsible, positive, open, honest scientific research environment.

Book chapter↗
USGS2010

Glaciers of Asia

This chapter is the ninth to be released in U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1386, Satellite Image Atlas of Glaciers of the World, a series of 11 chapters. In each of the geographic area chapters, remotely sensed images, primarily from the Landsat 1, 2, and 3 series of spacecraft, are used to analyze the specific glacierized region of our planet under consideration and to monitor glacier changes. Landsat images, acquired primarily during the middle to late 1970s and early 1980s, were used by an international team of glaciologists and other scientists to study various geographic regions and (or) to discuss related glaciological topics. In each glacierized geographic region, the present areal distribution of glaciers is compared, wherever possible, with historical information about their past extent. The atlas provides an accurate regional inventory of the areal extent of glacier ice on our planet during the 1970s as part of a growing international scientific effort to measure global environmental change on the Earth’s surface. The chapter is divided into seven geographic parts and one topical part: Glaciers of the Former Soviet Union (F–1), Glaciers of China (F–2), Glaciers of Afghanistan (F–3), Glaciers of Pakistan (F–4), Glaciers of India (F–5), Glaciers of Nepal (F–6), Glaciers of Bhutan (F–7), and the Paleoenvironmental Record Preserved in Middle-Latitude, High-Mountain Glaciers (F–8). Each geographic section describes the glacier extent during the 1970s and 1980s, the benchmark time period (1972–1981) of this volume, but has been updated to include more recent information. Glaciers of the Former Soviet Union are located in the Russian Arctic and various mountain ranges of Russia and the Republics of Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Kazakstun. The Glacier Inventory of the USSR and the World Atlas of Ice and Snow Resources recorded a total of 28,881 glaciers covering an area of 78,938 square kilometers (km 2 ). China includes many of the mountain-glacier systems of the world including the Himalaya, Karakorum, Tien Shan and Altay mountain ranges. The glaciers are widely scattered and cover an area of about 59,425 km 2 . The mountain glaciers may be classified as maritime, subcontinental or extreme continental. In Afghanistan, more than 3,000 small glaciers occur in the Hindu Kush and Pamir mountains. Most glaciers occur on north-facing slopes shaded by mountain peaks and on east and southeast slopes that are shaded by monsoon clouds. The glaciers provide vital water resources to the region and cover an area of about 2,700 km 2 . Glaciers of northern Pakistan are some of the largest and longest mid-latitude glaciers on Earth. They are located in the Hindu Kush, Himalaya, and Karakoram mountains and cover an area of about 15,000 km 2 . Glaciers here are important for their role in providing water resources and their hazard potential. The glaciers in India are located in the Himalaya and cover about 8,500 km 2 . The Himalaya contains one of the largest reservoirs of snow and ice outside the polar regions. The glaciers are a major source of fresh water and supply meltwater to all the rivers in northern India, thereby affecting the quality of life of millions of people. In Nepal, the glaciers are located in the Himalaya as individual glaciers; the glacierized area covers about 5,324 km 2 . The region is the highest mountainous region on Earth and includes the Mt. Everest region. Glaciers in the Bhutan Himalaya have a total area of about 1,317 km 2 . Many recent glacier studies are focused on glacier lakes that have the potential of generating dangerous glacier lake outburst floods. Research on the glaciers of the middle-latitude, high-mountain glaciers of Asia has also focused on the information contained in the ice cores from the glaciers. This information helps in the reconstruction of paleoclimatic records, and the computer modeling of global climate change.

Professional Paper↗
USGS2024

Marine heatwaves affect breeding, diet and population size but not body condition of a range-edge little penguin colony

Significant marine heatwaves (MHWs) developed along the Western Australian coast in 1999 and 2011. Despite ecosystem losses and the southwards occurrence of many tropical fish species during and after the extreme MHW in 2011, there have been few studies on the effects of this MHW on seabirds, and no biological impacts related to the 1999 MHW have been reported. Using data from 1986-2019, we investigated the impacts of these events on breeding outcomes, body condition, diet composition, population size and mortality of little penguins on Penguin Island, in the temperate waters off Western Australia. Breeding outcomes were negatively impacted by the MHWs but body condition was not. Diet composition changed after the MHW, with sandy sprat Hyperlophus vittatus , the penguins’ typical major prey component, replaced by scaly mackerel Sardinella lemuru , a tropical fish species. Using an open robust design analysis that accounts for imperfect capture probabilities and staggered annual arrival and departure dates, we found that the population decreased by 80% following the 2011 MHW. Finally, more penguins died from starvation or from novel protozoal parasitic infections in 2011 and 2012 that were potentially introduced with the changed diet. This research highlights that the temporal and spatial influence of MHWs on seabirds depends on several factors. Furthermore, the magnitude and direction of a prey species’ response can be very localised and have significant impacts on avian predators. There are no obvious ways to mediate climate effects, but perhaps measures taken to reduce any synergistic impacts on prey abundance, particularly during MHW events, could be effective.

Penguin Island↗
USGS2015

The effects of body size and climate on post-weaning survival of elephant seals at Heard Island

The population size of southern elephant seals in the southern Indian and Pacific Oceans decreased precipitously between the 1950s and 1990s. To investigate the reasons behind this, we studied the population of southern elephant seals at Heard Island between 1949 and 1954, using data collected by the early Australian National Antarctic Research Expeditions. Seals were marked and measured (lengths) as weaned pups, and resighted at Heard and Marion islands and in the Vestfold Hills, Antarctica in subsequent years. Bayesian state-space mark-recapture models were used to determine post-weaning survival. Yearling survival was consistently lower (ϕy: 0.28–0.40) than sub-adult survival (ϕs: 0.79–0.83). We found evidence for constant sub-adult survival and time-dependent resight probabilities. Weaning length was an important determinate of yearling survival, with the probability of survival increasing with individual length. There was some suggestion that the Southern Annular Mode influenced yearling survival but this evidence was not strong. Nonetheless, our results provide further support showing that size at independence affects yearling survival. Given the known sensitivity of southern elephant seal populations to survival early in life, it is possible that the decline in population size at Heard Island between the 1950s and 1990s like that at Macquarie Island was due to low yearling survival mediated through maternal ability to produce large pups and the dominant environmental conditions mothers experience during pregnancy.

Heard Island↗
USGS2020

Ecological interfaces between land and flowing water: Themes and trends in riparian research and management

This paper provides an overview of past, present and future themes for research and management of riparian zones, often relating to papers within this Wetlands Special Feature. Riparian research expanded in the United States around 1980 with themes that recognized (1) damage from excessive livestock, or (2) damage from river damming and diversion, and (3) the beneficial capacity of riparian buffers to intercept and assimilate nutrients and other water contaminants. Research expanded globally in the 1990s, with themes including (4) plant life history requirements and (5) reliance on fluvial geomorphic dynamics that enable riparian rejuvenation. Resource managers recognized that riparian areas provide (6) rich wildlife habitats (7) along with valued ecosystem services, (8) which encouraged conservation and restoration initiatives, (9) including environmental flow regimes. Floodplains are (10) vulnerable to invasive plants and management has included biocontrol such as for Tamarix in the American Southwest. Into the twenty-first century, (11) climate change is advancing, and riparian ecosystems may be especially impacted due to the compound challenges from increasing water demand and declining summer flows. As an emerging opportunity, (12) while reservoirs submerge floodplain vegetation, reservoir deltas may support compensatory riparian wetlands. (13) Studies increasingly utilize remote sensing tools including satellite imagery, LiDAR and unmanned aircraft systems, and (14) the coordination of large data sets invites digital ecology, including artificial intelligence and machine learning. Since riparian zones are centres for human activities, (15) there are opportunities for citizen science, social media and internet applications, which will increasingly democratize riparian research and management.

Wetlands↗
USGS2024

Synthesizing professional opinion of Lake Whitefish and Cisco recruitment drivers across the Great Lakes

Disentangling the suite of ecological drivers that explain recruitment variability for Lake Whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis and Cisco C. artedi is of critical importance for their conservation, management, and stewardship in the Laurentian Great Lakes. However, recruitment is inherently variable and can be regulated by many interacting processes, the relative importance of which can vary spatially, temporally, and ontogenetically. Given this complexity, comparisons across lakes and species that identify overarching hypotheses could efficiently guide future research. Using facilitated deliberations among fishery professionals (n = 57) with expertise in Great Lakes Coregonus spp., we synthesized current knowledge regarding (1) which biophysical processes are most important for driving contemporary recruitment between species, among lakes, and across life stages and (2) mechanisms by which those drivers regulate recruitment at key life stages. Participants affirmed the hypothesis that many drivers interact in complex ways to regulate Lake Whitefish and Cisco recruitment. Large-scale climatic processes affecting early life-stage growth and survival were consistently considered important. Other drivers were only deemed influential in certain lakes, highlighting perceived context-dependent recruitment dynamics. Notably, recruitment in Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Huron was considered limited during larval and early juvenile life stages by low productivity, whereas spawning-habitat degradation and reduced metapopulation diversity were hypothesized to limit recruitment during embryonic and larval stages in Lakes Erie and Ontario. Several drivers were hypothesized to similarly impact Lake Whitefish and Cisco during early life stages, while drivers acting on post-larval life stages were typically distinct between species. The hypotheses synthesized herein can guide future research on Lake Whitefish and Cisco recruitment dynamics in the Great Lakes.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2021

Growth and defense characteristics of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) and lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var latifolia) in a high-elevation, disturbance-prone mixed-conifer forest in northwestern Montana, USA

Recent, widespread tree mortality in the western U.S. resulting from changes in climate, pathogens, insect activity, and forest management practices has led to concerns for many ecologically and culturally important species. Within conifers, resin-based defenses have long been recognized as a primary defense mechanism against a variety of insects and pathogens. Oleoresin produced by trees contain complex mixtures of terpenoids that have numerous insecticidal and fungicidal properties. Research has also identified links between resin duct characteristics and increased probability of survival during bark beetle outbreaks. Whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis ) is a culturally significant high elevation species that provides numerous ecological services within subalpine and alpine ecosystems. Whitebark pine has co-evolved with a suite of biotic and abiotic disturbances. Individual trees allocate resources towards growth and resin-based defenses, making it a good candidate species to evaluate growth and defense relationships and tradeoffs. In this study we compared constitutive resin chemistry, tree growth and resin duct anatomy between similarly aged whitebark and lodgepole pine ( P. contorta var latifolia ) growing in proximity within a disturbance-prone, mixed-conifer forest in northwestern Montana. These two host species have varying degrees of historical exposure to mountain pine beetle. Our research yields four important findings. First, we did not find evidence of a tradeoff between tree growth and tree defenses (resin duct morphology and resin chemistry). This suggests that trees growing under favorable field conditions can experience high growth rates and still allocate ample resources towards defense. Second, we found that resin ducts and constitutive mono- and sesqui- terpenes were not correlated in lodgepole pine while duct production and area were positively related to constitutive monoterpenes, and duct size and area were positively related to constitutive sesquiterpenes, in whitebark pine. The lack of distinct, consistent relationships between these defensive features suggests that both whitebark and lodgepole pine trees present beetles with numerous, complex combinations of resin-based defenses. Third, based on constitutive terpene profiles, bark beetles are more likely to enter lodgepole pine but more likely to successfully elicit mass attacks in whitebark pine, which agrees with beetle attack and success patterns observed in the field. Fourth, overstory competition, particularly by Engelmann spruce ( Picea engelmannii ), can influence tree defenses, specifically by reducing constitutive terpene concentrations in lodgepole and whitebark pine. Competitive tree interactions could lead to altered bark beetle-conifer interactions as host and nonhost species migrate in response to changing climate. Our results suggest that strategies designed to support whitebark pine populations can benefit from better understanding interactions among growth, competition and physical and chemical defenses in response to multiple disturbance.

Montana↗
USGS2020

Looking forward, looking back: Building resilience today community report: St. Michael, AK

The Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center (AK CASC), in partnership with the Aleutian Pribilof Islands Association (APIA), designed the Looking Forward, Looking Back: Building Resilience Today (hereafter ‘BRT’) project as a series of trainings and workshops with tribal community leadership and members. The overarching goal of the project was to collaboratively develop the Indigenous knowledge and western science knowledge for adaptation planning. We worked with five community teams consisting of up to four leaders from communities that chose to participate in the project: Iliamna, Kotlik, Kwigillingok, Quinhagak, and St. Michael. Community teams were developed through the application process and the project duration. Community teams were encouraged to have involvement from multiple governing bodies within the community that could include the Tribal Council, city government, and village corpora- tion. The project title, with its references to the future (Looking Forward), past (Looking Back), and present (Building Resilience Today), refers to the idea that adaptation planning relies on all three perspectives. Equally important, how- ever, is the dialogue to exchange past and present information, context, and what we expect in the future. According- ly, two training sessions held at the International Arctic Research Center in Fairbanks, Alaska at the beginning and near the end of the project were developed to provide community team interaction with each other and with university and federal science partners. The project team also traveled to the partner communities and held a series of onsite events with community members to document locally-relevant information and share climate science tailored to the needs and conditions of each community. This report represents the community information shared during those onsite events. The Meeting Announcement (page 5) shows the date and description of the outreach events. The purpose of these events was to: 1) facilitate mapping of a Traditional Use Area to refine an area for climate pro- jections; 2) construct current and past seasonal Subsistence Calendars to identify important species and times of the year; 3) document Indigenous and local knowledge from current community members about environmental changes they have observed over their lifetimes; and 4) assist with documenting what the community perceived to be climate-related issues through photos and interviews. The agenda of the visits was co-produced with the commu- nity team. In each community, the community team and the project team co-hosted an open-to-the-public meeting and met with various groups. The community team advertised the meetings by posting community fliers, making announcements on the community radio, and reaching out to individuals that would contribute to the engagement discussions. Each community meeting focused on activities to develop seasonal Subsistence Calendars, map Tradition- al Use Areas, and document observed environmental changes. Community members spent time at stations dedicated to each of these activities working with project team members. The project team also met with various groups of indi- viduals that included village corporation, tribal council, and city representatives where additional information about observed environmental changes was gathered. This community report presents some of the information developed in these activities.

Alaska↗
USGS2018

Groundwater modeling

The state of the science and practice in groundwater modeling brings to mind highly sophisticated computer models that are running in parallel on many multi-processor machines. These models are expected to incorporate many different processes of both saturated and unsaturated groundwater flow and transport and possibly the media to which it connects, like surface waters and the atmosphere. We are increasingly aware we cannot study groundwater flow in isolation if we are to make useful predictions of, for instance, the impacts of climate change on the groundwater regime. We have come a long way. Today we are no longer limited to equations for flow toward a well, perhaps near an infinitely long straight canal (method of images), to sandbox models in the laboratory, or to simple steady state models of flow in a single aquifer. We now have computer models that solve groundwater flow and transport in multi-aquifer settings under transient conditions and with a user-friendly graphical user interface that allows widespread use. Additionally, multi-media models are now leaving the research environment and becoming available to mainstream consultants. So in that sense the science of groundwater modeling has matured. The practice of groundwater modeling, however, has also matured. We have come to realize that model output, being a necessary simplification of an unknowably complex natural world, has inherent limitations. That is, a model of reality is not reality itself. There is uncertainty associated with all facets of our model—parameterization, aquifer geometry and discretization, boundary conditions, and future hydrologic drivers such as future pumping regimes and climates. Today a model is now more appropriately seen as a tool that provides a quantitative framework to make supportable forecasts rather than an oracle that gives us all the answers. In this chapter we set out to briefly review the state of the science and practice in modeling. In doing so, we augment existing assessments from the journal Groundwater (e.g., Hunt and Zheng 2012; Langevin and Panday 2012; Molz 2017a,b; White 2017), specifically in terms of modeling approach. An effective modeling approach is critical. If a modeler does not decompose the societal problem correctly, the model will not be fit-for-purpose, no matter how sophisticated the code’s capabilities. Moreover, capabilities of codes will be ever improving; good modeling practices have a timelessness that is more robust. How best to decompose the problem and provide models that are accepted? We lay out here some approaches for today’s applied groundwater modeling. Specifically, we suggest: (1) a step-wise modeling process; (2) including a two-dimensional areal model within this process; (3) keeping abreast of industry standards; and (4) ways to increase acceptance of the models we produce.

Book chapter↗
USGS2020

Looking forward, looking back: Building resilience today community report: Kwigillingok, AK

The Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center (AK CASC), in partnership with the Aleutian Pribilof Islands Association (APIA), designed the Looking Forward, Looking Back: Building Resilience Today (hereafter ‘BRT’) project as a series of trainings and workshops with tribal community leadership and members. The overarching goal of the project was to collaboratively develop the Indigenous knowledge and western science knowledge for adaptation planning. We worked with five community teams consisting of up to four leaders from communities that chose to participate in the project: Iliamna, Kotlik, Kwigillingok, Quinhagak, and St. Michael. Community teams were developed through the application process and the project duration. Community teams were encouraged to have involvement from multiple governing bodies within the community that could include the Tribal Council, the city government, and the village corporation. The project title, with its references to the future (Looking Forward), past (Looking Back), and present (Building Resilience Today), refers to the idea that adaptation planning relies on all three perspectives. Equally import- ant, however, is the dialogue to exchange past and present information, context, and what we expect in the future. Ac- cordingly, two training sessions held at the International Arctic Research Center in Fairbanks, Alaska at the beginning and near the end of the project were developed to provide community team interaction with each other and with university and federal science partners. The project team also traveled to the partner communities and held a series of onsite events with community members to document locally-relevant information and share climate science tailored to the needs and conditions of each community. This report represents the community information shared during those onsite events. The Meeting Announcement (page 5) shows the date and description of the outreach events. The purpose of these events was to: 1) facilitate mapping of a Traditional Use Area to refine an area for climate pro- jections; 2) construct current and past seasonal Subsistence Calendars to identify important species and times of the year; 3) document Indigenous and local knowledge from current community members about environmental changes they have observed over their lifetimes; and 4) assist with documenting what the community perceived to be climate-related issues through photos and interviews. The agenda of the visits was co-produced with the commu- nity team. In each community, the community team and the project team co-hosted an open-to-the-public meeting and met with various groups. The community team advertised the meetings by posting community fliers, making announcements on the community radio, and reaching out to individuals that would contribute to the engagement discussions. Each community meeting focused on activities to develop seasonal Subsistence Calendars, map Tradition- al Use Areas, and document observed environmental changes. Community members spent time at stations dedicated to each of these activities working with project team members. The project team also met with various groups of indi- viduals that included village corporation, tribal council, and city representatives where additional information about observed environmental changes was gathered. This community report presents some of the information developed in these activities.

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