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At least 1,297 records · Page 72Linked to original sources
USGS2025

Density dependence and weather drive dabbling duck spatiotemporal distributions and intercontinental migration

Understanding migratory waterfowl spatiotemporal distributions is important because, in addition to their economic and cultural value, wild waterfowl can be infectious reservoirs of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV). Waterfowl migration has been implicated in regional and intercontinental HPAIV dispersal, and predictive capabilities of where and when HPAIV may be introduced to susceptible spillover hosts would facilitate biosecurity and mitigation efforts. To develop forecasts for HPAIV dispersal, an improved understanding of how individual birds interact with their environment and move on a landscape scale is required. Using an agent-based modeling approach, we integrated individual-scale energetics, species-specific morphology and behavior, and landscape-scale weather and habitat data in a mechanistic stochastic framework to simulate Mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) and Northern Pintail ( Anas acuta ) annual migration across the Northern Hemisphere. Our model recreated biologically realistic migratory patterns using a first principles approach to waterfowl ecology, behavior, and physiology. Conducting a limited structural sensitivity analysis comparing reduced models to eBird Status and Trends in reference to the full model, we identified density dependence as the main factor influencing spring migration and breeding distributions, and wind as the main factor influencing fall migration and overwintering distributions. We show evidence of weather patterns in Northeast Asia causing significant intercontinental pintail migration to North America. By linking individual energetics to landscape-scale processes, we identify key drivers of waterfowl migration while developing a predictive model responsive to daily weather patterns. This model paves the way for future waterfowl migration research predicting HPAIV transmission, climate change impacts, and oil spill effects.

Avian Research↗
USGS2026

Regional variations in sea ice and primary productivity in the Bering Sea during Marine Isotope Stage 11

Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 (424-374 ka) has long been an analog for Holocene climate, because it is the most recent interglacial period with similar orbital conditions. However, there is significant global and regional variability in the climate response to MIS 11 warmth. Here, we review sediment core records from across the Bering Sea to investigate changes in paleoceanographic conditions during Marine Isotope Stages 12-10. Sea ice was present over much of the Bering Sea during MIS 11, but today, none of the sites investigated are ever ice-covered. This suggests that sea ice regimes in the Bering Sea during MIS 11 were different to those of the Holocene. There are also regional differences in the response of sea ice to MIS 11 warming. At the Umnak Plateau, Southeastern Bering Sea, sea ice concentrations decline during deglaciation, but they remain high at the slope sites until Peak MIS 11. Sea ice re-advances over the Umnak Plateau during peak interglacial warmth, at the same time that it declines over the slope sites. Late MIS 11 is characterized by high concentrations of seasonal sea ice at the Umnak Plateau, whilst sea ice at the slope sites fluctuates between consolidated and unconsolidated ice cover. This east-west dichotomy may be explained by changes in the behavior of the Aleutian Low. Productivity increases dramatically during deglaciation due to increased upwelling and sea level rise bringing fresh nutrients into the oceans. This is characterized by increased diatom productivity, increased terrestrial carbon deposition, and laminations at all sites.

Alaska↗
USGS2009

Climate alters response of an endemic island plant to removal of invasive herbivores

Islands experience higher rates of species extinction than mainland ecosystems, with biological invasions among the leading causes; they also serve as important model systems for testing ideas in basic and applied ecology. Invasive removal programs on islands are conservation efforts that can also be viewed as powerful manipulative experiments, but few data are available to evaluate their effects. We collected demographic and herbivore damage data for Castilleja mollis Pennell, an endangered plant endemic to Santa Rosa Island, California, over a 12-year period before, during, and after the implementation of control for introduced cattle, deer, and elk. We used these long-term data to explore mechanisms underlying herbivore effects, assess the results of herbivore reduction at the scales of both individual plants and populations, and determine how temporal variability in herbivory and plant demography influenced responses to herbivore removals. For individual plants, herbivore effects mediated by disturbance were greater than those of grazing. Deer and elk scraping of the ground substantially increased plant mortality and dormancy and reduced flowering and growth. Stem damage from browsing did not affect survivorship but significantly reduced plant growth and flower production. Herbivore control successfully lowered damage rates, which declined steeply between 1997 and 2000 and have remained relatively low. Castilleja mollis abundances rose sharply after 1997, suggesting a positive effect of herbivore control, but then began to decline steadily again after 2003. The recent decline appears to be driven by higher mean growing season temperatures; interestingly, not only reductions in scraping damage but a period of cooler conditions were significant in explaining increases in C. mollis populations between 1997 and 2002. Our results demonstrate strong effects of introduced herbivores on both plant demography and population dynamics and show that climate-driven variation may counteract and mask positive responses to herbivore removal. Regional mean temperatures already have risen significantly over the last 50 years, suggesting that climate change could increasingly swamp the effects of management targeted at other environmental problems. Similar interactions between climate and invasive species will play an even greater role in future management, with long-term data sets like this critical to quantifying such effects. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2023

Sea-ice conditions predict polar bear land use around military installations in Alaska

Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) are threatened by sea-ice loss due to climate change, which is concurrently opening the Arctic to natural resource extraction and a broader scope of national security responsibilities. Mitigating the risk of human–bear conflicts is an emerging challenge as many polar bears spend longer ice-free summers on land where they have limited access to food and come into more frequent contact with people. We investigated a suite of physical and ecological variables that influence the timing of polar bear arrival on, and departure from, land using remote-sensing data on sea-ice extent and satellite telemetry data from 72 radio-collared adult female polar bears from 1986 to 2015. Analyses encompassed the coastline of the Southern Beaufort Sea north of Alaska, USA, and focused on zones within a 35-km radius (mean daily travel distance of a polar bear) of 5 military installations. Sea ice in the Southern Beaufort Sea retreated approximately 1 month earlier in spring, and reformed 1 month later in fall, in 2015 compared to 1979. In generalized linear mixed models, the most important predictors of polar bear arrival and departure were the dates of sea-ice breakup and formation, respectively, in localized marine areas surrounding each military zone. Region-wide sea-ice conditions also influenced land use, although to a lesser extent. We found that polar bears spent longer periods on land in the military zones compared to outside the zones, which may reflect increased land use in areas with human activity and potential attractants (noting that some military installations were in proximity to other human settlements). Our results demonstrate that the timing of polar bear land use in northern Alaska is influenced by sea-ice conditions on multiple spatial scales. This information can be used to predict and manage the presence of polar bears around military installations and other places of interest.

Alaska↗
USGS2023

Climate, heatwaves, nearshore ecosystems and the sunflower sea star

At the nexus of the ocean and the land lies the nearshore ecosystem, which includes the intertidal zone, an area exposed during low tides and submerged during high tides. Species in the intertidal are adapted to a high level of environmental variability including high temperatures, waves, and salinity variability. Species’ tolerance to desiccation in part determines the elevation within the intertidal zone they occupy. Biological interactions also determine the presence and abundance of species. Predators like sea stars and competition for space can influence numbers of barnacles and mussels. As ocean and air temperatures continue to rise with climate change and marine heatwave are becoming more common intertidal species may have limited space to move vertically in response to sea level rise and many species are already living at the edge of their physiological tolerances for high temperatures.

Open Access Government↗
USGS2020

Assessment of methods for soil monitoring in the Adirondack region of New York

Repeated sampling to detect changes in forest soils was rarely used before 1990, but the value of soil monitoring in understanding environmental change is becoming well established. The growing number of resampling studies has shown that sampling designs and procedures must be adapted to the objectives of the monitoring program and the soils being monitored. In the Adirondack region, current priorities include the response of soils to large increases, and more recently, large decreases in acidic deposition, and changes driven by trending climate such as altered pools of soil organic carbon, as well as other unforeseen factors that will occur in the future. To improve methods and assess the feasibility of long-term soil monitoring in the Adirondack region, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) conducted a pilot project to evaluate a new sampling method for characterizing soils on a watershed basis. Results obtained with this new approach, referred to as the ADK sampling method, was compared to methods used in previous sampling conducted in 2004 as part of the Western Adirondack Stream Survey (WASS), and also to previous high-replication pit sampling in the North and South Tributary watersheds of Buck Creek (North Buck and South Buck). The number of sampling locations and spatial distribution of sampling points within watersheds differed among the methods, although pit excavation was used to obtain samples in all cases. In addition, this investigation evaluated the use of small diameter corers as a means to measure forest floor mass with greater accuracy and precision than commonly used methods such as pit excavation. Sufficient statistical power to detect ecologically relevant changes in upper profile horizons (Oe, Oa and upper 10 cm of the B) were achieved with the ADK sampling method that utilized 18 pit excavations per watershed. The sampling locations were organized within each watershed into three study areas (six sampling locations per study area) that represented the primary types of landscape within the watershed. Sampling at 18 locations per watershed was found to be nearly as effective at detecting changes as sampling at 28 locations per watershed. Numerous significant changes (P < 0.10) were detected with both 18 and 28 sampling locations at sampling intervals of 12 to 16 years. The relationship between soil data obtained with the ADK method and stream chemistry at the base of the watershed suggested that this approach adequately characterized soil variability within the watershed for the purpose of studying soil-stream linkages. Significant changes in upper B horizon calcium (P < 0.10) and Oa horizon aluminum (P < 0.01) were detected when the data from the four WASS watersheds were combined with the two Buck Creek watersheds, which suggested that there would be value in resampling other WASS watersheds previously sampled in 2004 to support a regional assessment. Study results support small diameter cores as a useful method to monitor changes in the organic matter mass of the forest floor. This method showed high reproducibility in repeated sampling tests and lower spatial variability in sample data than traditional approaches when compared on a watershed basis. Soil coring is also faster and requires less equipment than pit excavation methods, which makes it more conducive to sampling over large areas. However, organic matter mass of the forest floor determined by coring was consistently less than the values obtained by the ADK sampling method that used pit sampling and vertical horizon measurements, and also literature values of a previous Adirondack study that utilized pit sampling in which the entire horizon was collected over a measured area. However, a high correlation (R2 = 0.87) occurred between organic matter content (expressed as Mg ha-1) determined by coring and the ADK sampling method. Differing methods with regard to where sample could be collected, and how organic matter was collected for chemical analysis were the likely reasons for differences in quantification of forest floor organic mass. Collection of forest floor cores in conjunction with the ADK method is recommended to provide improved sensitivity in detecting changes in the forest floor in proximity of where full analyses of the soil profile are being done. This duel sampling approach represents an optimized method for measuring and understanding how Adirondack soils will change in the future.

New York↗
USGS2023

No evidence for cottonwood forest decline along a flow-augmented western U.S. river

In contrast to many other arid region rivers, streamflow in the South Platte River is heavily augmented by trans-basin water imports and irrigation return flows. Hydrological changes began in the 1880s, resulting in channel narrowing and the development of a continuous Populus-Salix forest by the mid-twentieth century. We assessed the composition, structure and regeneration status of the riparian forest and identified environmental variables affecting annual Populus deltoides tree growth. We sampled forest structure at four sites in 2015, and conducted dendroecological analysis at seven additional sites in 2019. The riparian forest was dominated by P. deltoides , which occurred at all sites, comprising 79% of total tree basal area and 62% of total tree density. Age structure data indicated ongoing though episodic recruitment of P. deltoides , at least over the past ~130 years. We tested 14 linear mixed effects models to describe the effect of climate and streamflow on individual tree growth (modeled as the log of BAI, n = 237 trees). The most parsimonious model selected with AICc explained 28.6% of BAI variability, and included hydrology and climate factors during the growing season (i.e., June–August streamflow, June–July PDSI), some aspects of off-season (i.e., previous November and March) streamflow, along with tree age and study site effects. The riparian forest developed in response to, and has been maintained by, current climate conditions and water management regimes. It may be negatively affected by future climate change and increased urban water demand in the basin.

Colorado↗
USGS2022

Disentangling direct and indirect effects of extreme events on coastal wetland communities

One of the primary ways in which climate change will impact coastal freshwater wetlands is through changes in the frequency, intensity, timing and distribution of extreme weather events. Disentangling the direct and indirect mechanisms of population- and community-level responses to extreme events is vital to predicting how species composition of coastal wetlands will change under future conditions. We extended static structural equation modelling approaches to incorporate system dynamics in a multi-year multispecies occupancy model to quantify the effects of extreme weather events on a coastal freshwater wetland system. We used data from an 8-year study (2009–2016) on St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge in Florida, USA, to quantify species-specific and community-level changes in amphibian and fish occupancy associated with two flooding events in 2012 and 2013. We examine how physical changes to the landscape, including potential changes in salinity and increased wetland connectivity, may have contributed to or exacerbated the effects of these extreme weather events on the biota of isolated coastal wetlands. We provide evidence that the primary effects of flooding on the amphibian community were through indirect mechanisms via changes in the composition of the sympatric fish community that may have had lethal (i.e. through direct predation) or non-lethal (i.e. through direct or indirect competitive interactions) effects. In addition, we have shown that amphibian species differed in their sensitivity to direct flooding effects and indirect changes in the fish community and wetland-specific conductance, which led to variable responses across the community. These effects led to the overall decline in amphibian species richness from 2009 to 2016, suggesting that wetland-breeding amphibian communities on St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge may not be resilient to predicted changes in coastal disturbance regimes because of climate change. Understanding both direct and indirect effects, as well as species interactions, is important for predicting the effects of a changing climate on individual species, communities and ecosystems.

Journal of Animal Ecology↗
USGS2020

Integrating climate change considerations into natural resource planning—An implementation guide

Executive Summary Climate change vulnerability assessments and associated adaptation strategies and actions connect existing climate science with possible effects on natural resources and highlight potential responses. However, these assessments, which are commonly generated for large regional areas, suggest management options in general terms without guidance for choosing among strategies and actions under specific circumstances. Meanwhile, land and resource management plans1 often address smaller geographies, and management actions must address specific rather than general situations. Thus, there is a need for tools that enable managers to bridge the gap by downscaling assessments, plans, and data generated at regional scales to identify adaptation actions and strategies appropriate for smaller management units and project-level planning. To address this need, we have developed a tool–the Climate Adaptation Integration Tool (CAIT)–that helps resource managers use climate science and assessments, along with local knowledge, to identify those adaptation strategies and actions most appropriate for a given site or situation. Specifically, we provide: Guidance for acquiring and using downscaled climate change projections; Procedures for using these data to answer Critical Questions to make site-specific determinations of the appropriate management approach (specifically, resistance, resilience, transition, realignment, or no action); Lists of potential adaptation strategies and actions appropriate to the chosen management approach; and Supplemental information regarding adaptation strategies and actions to help managers choose among them. The CAIT is meant to help managers integrate climate change science and assessments into management decisions. The CAIT also serves as a way for managers to document how they have incorporated climate change information into their decision-making and why certain actions were selected over others. A particular strength of the CAIT is that it leads to potential solutions (that is, adaptation strategies and actions) without inflexibly prescribing actions. This flexibility enables managers to incorporate other factors and constraints to create workable management plans and projects that strengthen their ability to achieve long-term conservation goals.

Techniques and Methods↗
USGS2025

Waterline responses to climate forcing along the North American West Coast

Understanding waterline variability at seasonal to interannual timescales is crucial for predicting coastal responses to climate forcing. However, relationships between large-scale climate variability and coastal morphodynamics remain underexplored beyond intensively monitored sites. This study leverages a newly developed 25-year (1997–2022) satellite-derived waterline dataset along the North American West Coast. Our results reveal distinct latitudinal patterns in seasonal waterline change, with excursions exceeding 25 m in the Pacific Northwest, decreasing to less than 10 m in Southern California and farther south. Waterline fluctuations strongly follow wave power in the Pacific Northwest ( R = −0.78), northern California ( R = −0.75), and Baja California ( R = −0.62), while Baja California Sur aligns more with sea-level variations ( R = −0.42). Interannually, waterline change exhibits latitudinal dependence: south of southern California, variability is low, with major erosion confined to strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, while northern regions show mixed responses. ENSO-driven storm track shifts modulate winter wave climate, resulting in enhanced (attenuated) erosion from southern California to Baja California Sur during El Niño (La Niña). However, further north, ENSO impacts are less consistent, reflecting a complex interplay of storm track displacement and intensification. These findings highlight the spatial complexity of ENSO-driven morphodynamics and provide a framework for assessing climate-induced coastal vulnerability.

North American West Coast↗
USGS2025

Hydroclimatic and land-use factors affecting peak streamflow in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin

Flood-frequency analysis provides the basis for flood risk estimates used by water-resource managers in land-use planning, and it informs the design of essential infrastructure such as bridges and culverts. Federal guidelines for flood-frequency analysis do not offer guidance on addressing changing climate and land-use conditions when estimating floods. However, failing to consider climatic and land-use changes that cause abrupt or gradual changes in flood regimes can result in a poor representation of the true flood risk. In response to concerns about changing flood regimes, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with nine State agencies (Illinois Department of Transportation, Iowa Department of Transportation, Michigan Department of Transportation, Minnesota Department of Transportation, Missouri Department of Transportation, Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, North Dakota Department of Water Resources, South Dakota Department of Transportation, and Wisconsin Department of Transportation) began a study to examine variability and change in hydrology and climate and the effects of urbanization and tile drainage on flooding. The analyses of patterns and changes in hydrology and climate were reported in a multichapter Scientific Investigations Report, the findings of which are summarized in this U.S. Geological Survey Circular. Additional analyses documenting changes in seasonality of flooding and the effects of urbanization and tile drainage were completed and published as separate studies and are also summarized in this Circular. These studies provide extensive exploratory analysis of peak streamflow, daily streamflow, and climate data, setting the stage for advancements in flood-frequency analysis.

Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Mon↗
USGS2018

Range expansion in unfavorable environments through behavioral responses to microclimatic conditions: Moose (Alces americanus) as the model

Wildlife populations occurring at the edge of their range boundaries are thought to be the most sensitive to climate change due to temperatures being at or near the limit of a species’ thermal envelope. Moose ( Alces americanus ) are a cold adapted species that are showing population declines in some portions of the southern edge of their range. However, other moose populations are actively expanding southward into thermally stressful areas. The direct effects of temperature on moose have not yet been studied in these southwardly expanding populations and may offer insights into how moose are successfully establishing in areas at the edge of their thermal envelope. We used ambient temperature and GPScollar data from moose to quantify the direct effect of temperature on moose habitat use in Massachusetts, USA, which is one of these southwardly expanding populations. The mean daily temperature in our study area exceeded the reported physiological tolerances of moose in over 90% of daytime and 75% of nighttime locations in summer and in over 80% of daytime and 67% of nighttime locations in winter. Across seasons and times of day, moose preferred regenerating forest, but as ambient air temperatures increased, selection for regenerating forest declined and selection for forested wetlands and coniferous forestincreased. This response indicates moose are altering their behavior to utilize thermal shelters when temperatures are high. We observed higher temperatures and stronger behavioral responses than other studies at the southern edge of moose range. We found habitat for moose in Massachusetts is climatically marginal and loss of habitat, increase in parasites, and further climatic warming may cause population declines in the future.

Mammalian Biology↗
USGS2023

Long-term biocrust responses to wildfires in Washington, USA

Premise Dryland ecosystems in the western United States are affected by invasive species, wildfires, livestock grazing, and climate change in ways that are difficult to distinguish. Biocrusts perform important ecological roles in these systems and are sensitive to all of these pressures. Methods We revisited a Washington, USA, site sampled for biocrusts in 1999 to focus on effects of exotic annual grass invasion and wildfires in the absence of livestock grazing. We examined changes between 1999 and 2020 using a Bayesian directed acyclic graph (DAG) to interpret direct and indirect causal impacts of wildfire on perennial bunchgrasses, exotic annual grasses, and biocrusts. Results Between 1999 and 2020, exotic annual grass cover increased in all plots and in unburned plots by 16% and 18%, respectively, bunchgrass cover decreased by 21% and 25%, and biocrust cover decreased by 8.9% and 9.8%. Our DAG suggested that decreases in bunchgrass increased exotic annual grass, which reduced biocrust cover. Wildfires did not directly influence changes in bunchgrass, exotic annual grass, or biocrust cover. Areas dominated by exotic annual grass had less abundant and diverse biocrusts than areas with less exotic annual grass. Conclusions Biocrust community changes were more strongly related to increasing exotic annual grasses than to wildfires. Changes may relate to other soil disturbances or broad-scale changes in climate or air quality. The minimal influence of wildfire on exotic annual grass and biocrusts suggests that apparent negative impacts of wildfire at other sites may be due to exacerbation by livestock grazing or other surface disturbance.

American Journal of Botany↗
USGS2016

Estuary-ocean connectivity: Fast physics, slow biology

Estuaries are connected to both land and ocean so their physical, chemical, and biological dynamics are influenced by climate patterns over watersheds and ocean basins. We explored climate-driven oceanic variability as a source of estuarine variability by comparing monthly time series of temperature and chlorophyll- a inside San Francisco Bay with those in adjacent shelf waters of the California Current System (CCS) that are strongly responsive to wind-driven upwelling. Monthly temperature fluctuations inside and outside the Bay were synchronous, but their correlations weakened with distance from the ocean. These results illustrate how variability of coastal water temperature (and associated properties such as nitrate and oxygen) propagates into estuaries through fast water exchanges that dissipate along the estuary. Unexpectedly, there was no correlation between monthly chlorophyll- a variability inside and outside the Bay. However, at the annual scale Bay chlorophyll- a was significantly correlated with the Spring Transition Index (STI) that sets biological production supporting fish recruitment in the CCS. Wind forcing of the CCS shifted in the late 1990s when the STI advanced 40 days. This shift was followed, with lags of 1–3 years, by 3- to 19-fold increased abundances of five ocean-produced demersal fish and crustaceans and 2.5-fold increase of summer chlorophyll- a in the Bay. These changes reflect a slow biological process of estuary–ocean connectivity operating through the immigration of fish and crustaceans that prey on bivalves, reduce their grazing pressure, and allow phytoplankton biomass to build. We identified clear signals of climate-mediated oceanic variability in this estuary and discovered that the response patterns vary with the process of connectivity and the timescale of ocean variability. This result has important implications for managing nutrient inputs to estuaries connected to upwelling systems, and for assessing their responses to changing patterns of upwelling timing and intensity as the planet continues to warm.

California↗
USGS1991

Detectability of the effects of a hypothetical temperature increase on the Thornthwaite moisture index

Climatic changes that result from increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide may affect the availability of water for vegetation, groundwater recharge, runoff, and human consumption. Most studies of the effects of climatic change on water resources focus on changes in mean characteristics of hydrologic variables and do not consider the effects of these changes amid natural climatic variability. In this study, the Thornthwaite moisture index, an index of the supply of water in an area (precipitation) relative to the climatic demand for water (potential evapotranspiration), was used to examine the effects of a hypothetical increase in air temperature on moisture conditions in the United States. The effects of a gradual increase in air temperature at the rate of 4°C per 100 years, with no accompanying change in precipitation, was used to induce a change in Thornthwaite moisture index values for the United States in order to: (i) determine the relation between natural variability in climate and the time needed for significant trends in the moisture index to occur in response to hypothetical warming; (ii) identify the characteristics of areas (e.g. wet/cool, hot/dry etc.) that are most likely to be the first to experience significant changes in the moisture index given the hypothetical temperature increase. The increased temperature resulted in increased potential evapotranspiration and a decrease in the moisture index across the United States. Decreases in the moisture index were greatest in cool/wet regions and least in hot/dry regions. The time required to detect significant trends in the moisture index was a function of both the magnitude of change in the moisture index and the natural year-to-year variability of the moisture index. In general, when the ratio of the magnitude of change in the moisture index to the magnitude of variability was large, the time required to detect significant trends was short. This ratio was largest in cool/wet regions resulting in the shortest detection times.

Journal of Hydrology↗
USGS2025

Analysis of trends in terrestrial vegetation at Mediterranean Coast Network Parks: Channel Islands National Park

The five islands comprising Channel Islands National Park (CHIS) experience natural gradients in temperature and moisture driven by ocean currents. Additionally, the islands were used as ranchlands and military land before becoming a national park, resulting in widespread erosion and vegetation change. As a result, CHIS spans gradients in climate as well as ranching duration and time since animal removal. Vegetation monitoring was initiated in 1984 on three islands (Anacapa, Santa Barbara, San Miguel), in 1990 on Santa Rosa Island, and in 1998 on Santa Cruz Island, with the goal of documenting the long-term response of island vegetation to ranch animal removal and climate fluctuations. Since that time, monitoring has documented the range of natural fluctuation in island environments over decades and provided insights into vegetation change in ecosystems unencumbered by ongoing development. Long-term vegetation monitoring at CHIS is therefore a rare example of an ecosystem experiment that demonstrates the results of management actions and serves as a baseline for land managers and scientists worldwide. Terrestrial vegetation data collected between 1984 and 2018 were modeled to estimate trends over time and to characterize relationships with covariates related to site characteristics, nonnative mammal removal programs, and water balance metrics. Data were analyzed for trends in vegetation cover, woody plant density, and plant community diversity grouped by life form and nativity across all islands and within individual islands, as well as for several individual species that dominate plant communities or present challenges to native plant recovery. In all, a total of 162 trend and covariate models were tested in this study, the details of which are provided in this report. Briefly, results reflect a decline in nonnative annual disturbance-thriving species with the reduction in animal grazing and trampling. Increasing trends were observed in native shrub density and native shrub recruitment density, as well as native shrub cover across all islands averaged together and on Santa Cruz Island. However, opposite trends were seen on the smaller islands of Santa Barbara and Anacapa, where increasing seabird activity may be damaging vegetation. Further results indicate the importance of soil moisture, relative humidity, fog, precipitation, site exposure, and solar radiation for vegetation patterns and trends. In many instances, there are apparent interacting effects of environmental variables with trends related to nonnative mammal removal and site location. Vegetation patterns in space and time emerge in the dataset as nuanced responses to interacting drivers.

Calfornia↗
USGS2023

Mortality thresholds of juvenile trees to drought and heatwaves: Implications for forest regeneration across a landscape gradient

Tree loss is increasing rapidly due to drought- and heat-related mortality and intensifying fire activity. Consequently, the fate of many forests depends on the ability of juvenile trees to withstand heightened climate and disturbance anomalies. Extreme climatic events, such as droughts and heatwaves, are increasing in frequency and severity, and trees in mountainous regions must contend with these landscape-level climate episodes. Recent research focuses on how mortality of individual tree species may be driven by drought and heatwaves, but how juvenile mortality under these conditions would vary among species spanning an elevational gradient—given concurrent variation in climate, ecohydrology, and physiology–remains unclear. We address this knowledge gap by implementing a growth chamber study, imposing extreme drought with and without a compounding heatwave, for juveniles of five species that span a forested life zones in the Southwestern United States. Overall, the length of a progressive drought required to trigger mortality differed by up to 20 weeks among species. Inclusion of a heatwave hastened mean time to mortality for all species by about 1 week. Lower-elevation species that grow in warmer ambient conditions died earlier ( Pinus ponderosa in 10 weeks, Pinus edulis in 14 weeks) than did higher-elevation species from cooler ambient conditions ( Picea engelmannii and Pseudotsuga menziesii in 19 weeks, and Pinus flexilis in 30 weeks). When exposed to a heatwave in conjunction with drought, mortality advanced significantly only for species from cooler ambient conditions ( Pinus flexilis : 2.7 weeks earlier; Pseudotsuga menziesii : 2.0 weeks earlier). Cooler ambient temperatures may have buffered against moisture loss during drought, resulting in longer survival of higher-elevation species despite expected drought tolerance of lower-elevation species due to tree physiology. Our study suggests that droughts will play a leading role in juvenile tree mortality and will most directly impact species at warmer climate thresholds, with heatwaves in tandem with drought potentially exacerbating mortality especially of high elevation species. These responses are relevant for assessing the potential success of both natural and managed reforestation, as differential juvenile survival following episodic extreme events will determine future landscape-scale vegetation trajectories under changing climate.

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change↗
USGS2010

Pollen-based continental climate reconstructions at 6 and 21 ka: A global synthesis

Subfossil pollen and plant macrofossil data derived from 14 C-dated sediment profiles can provide quantitative information on glacial and interglacial climates. The data allow climate variables related to growing-season warmth, winter cold, and plant-available moisture to be reconstructed. Continental-scale reconstructions have been made for the mid-Holocene (MH, around 6 ka) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, around 21 ka), allowing comparison with palaeoclimate simulations currently being carried out as part of the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The synthesis of the available MH and LGM climate reconstructions and their uncertainties, obtained using modern-analogue, regression and model-inversion techniques, is presented for four temperature variables and two moisture variables. Reconstructions of the same variables based on surface-pollen assemblages are shown to be accurate and unbiased. Reconstructed LGM and MH climate anomaly patterns are coherent, consistent between variables, and robust with respect to the choice of technique. They support a conceptual model of the controls of Late Quaternary climate change whereby the first-order effects of orbital variations and greenhouse forcing on the seasonal cycle of temperature are predictably modified by responses of the atmospheric circulation and surface energy balance.

Climate Dynamics↗