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At least 1,297 records · Page 72Linked to original sources

USGS2003

Millennial- to century-scale variability in Gulf of Mexico Holocene climate records

Proxy records from two piston cores in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) provide a detailed (50-100 year resolution) record of climate variability over the last 14,000 years. Long-term (millennial-scale) trends and changes are related to the transition from glacial to interglacial conditions and movement of the average position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) related to orbital forcing. The ??18O of the surface-dwelling planktic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber show negative excursions between 14 and 10.2 ka (radiocarbon years) that reflect influx of meltwater into the western GOM during melting of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The relative abundance of the planktic foraminifer Globigerinoides sacculifer is related to transport of Caribbean water into the GOM. Maximum transport of Caribbean surface waters and moisture into the GOM associated with a northward migration of the average position of the ITCZ occurs between about 6.5 and 4.5 ka. In addition, abundance variations of G. sacculifer show century-scale variability throughout most of the Holocene. The GOM record is consistent with records from other areas, suggesting that century-scale variability is a pervasive feature of Holocene climate. The frequency of several cycles in the climate records is similar to cycles identified in proxy records of solar variability, indicating that at least some of the century-scale climate variability during the Holocene is due to external (solar) forcing.

Paleoceanography↗

USGS2003

The sedimentary record of climatic and anthropogenic influence on the Patuxent estuary and Chesapeake Bay ecosystems

Ecological and paleoecological studies from the Patuxent River mouth reveal dynamic variations in benthic ostracode assemblages over the past 600 years due to climatic and anthropogenic factors. Prior to the late 20th century, centennial-scale changes in species dominance were influenced by climatic and hydrological factors that primarily affected salinity and at times led to oxygen depletion. Decadal-scale droughts also occurred resulting in higher salinities and migration of ostracode species from the deep channel (Loxoconcha sp., Cytheromorpha newportensis) into shallower water along the flanks of the bay. During the 19th century the abundance of Leptocythere nikraveshae and Perissocytheridea brachyforma suggest increased turbidity and decreased salinity. Unprecedented changes in benthic ostracodes at the Patuxent mouth and in the deep channel of the bay occurred after the 1960s when Cytheromorpha curta became the dominant species, reflecting seasonal anoxia. The change in benthic assemblages coincided with the appearance of deformities in foraminifers. A combination of increased nitrate loading due to greater fertilizer use and increased freshwater flow explains this shift. A review of the geochemical and paleoecological evidence for dissolved oxygen indicates that seasonal oxygen depletion in the main channel of Chesapeake Bay varies over centennial and decadal timescales. Prior to 1700 AD, a relatively wet climate and high freshwater runoff led to oxygen depletion but rarely anoxia. Between 1700 and 1900, progressive eutrophication occurred related to land dearance and increased sedimentation, but this was superimposed on the oscillatory pattern of oxygen depletion most likely driven by climatological and hydrological factors. It also seems probable that the four- to five-fold increase in sedimentation due to agricultural and timber activity could have contributed to an increased natural nutrient load, likely fueling the early periods (1700-1900) of hypoxla prior to widespread fertilizer use. Twentieth-century anoxia worsened in the late 1930s-1940s and again around 1970, reaching unprecedented levels in the past few decades. Decadal and interannual variability in oxygen depletion even in the 20th century is still strongly influenced by climatic processes influencing precipitation and freshwater runoff.

Estuaries↗

USGS2009

Climate-induced forest dieback: An escalating global phenomenon?

Forests, which today cover 30 percent of the world’s land surface (FAO, 2006), are being rapidly and directly transformed in many areas by the impacts of expanding human populations and economies. Less evident are the pervasive effects of ongoing climatic changes on the condition and status of forests around the world. Recent examples of drought and heat-related forest stress and dieback (defined here as tree mortality noticeably above usual mortality levels) are being documented from all forested continents, making it possible to begin to see global patterns. This article introduces these patterns and considers the possibility that many forests and woodlands today are at increasing risk of climate-induced dieback. A more comprehensive article (Allen et al. , 2009) addresses this topic in considerably greater detail. While climate events can damage forests in many ways ranging from ice storms to tornadoes and hurricanes, the emphasis here is on climatic water stress, driven by drought and warm temperatures.

Unasylva↗

USGS2013

Global climate change impacts on coastal ecosystems in the Gulf of Mexico: Considerations for integrated coastal management

Global climate change is important in considerations of integrated coastal management in the Gulf of Mexico. This is true for a number of reasons. Climate in the Gulf spans the range from tropical to the lower part of the temperate zone. Thus, as climate warms, the tropical temperate interface, which is currently mostly offshore in the Gulf of Mexico, will increasingly move over the coastal zone of the northern and eastern parts of the Gulf. Currently, this interface is located in South Florida and around the US-Mexico border in the Texas-Tamaulipas region. Maintaining healthy coastal ecosystems is important because they will be more resistant to climate change.

Florida;Texas↗

USGS2013

Use and interpretation of climate envelope models: a practical guide

This guidebook is intended to provide a practical overview of climate envelope modeling for conservation professionals and natural resource managers. The material is intended for people with little background or experience in climate envelope modeling who want to better understand and interpret models developed by others and the results generated by such models, or want to do some modeling themselves. This is not an exhaustive review of climate envelope modeling, but rather a brief introduction to some key concepts in the discipline. Readers interested in a more in-depth treatment of much of the material presented here are referred to an excellent book, Mapping Species Distributions: Spatial Inference and Prediction by Janet Franklin. Also, a recent review (Araújo & Peterson 2012) provides an excellent, though more technical, discussion of many of the issues dealt with here. Here we treat selected topics from a practical perspective, using minimal jargon to explain and illustrate some of the many issues that one has to be aware of when using climate envelope models. When we do introduce specialized terminology in the guidebook, we bold the term when it is first used; a glossary of these terms is included at the back of the guidebook.

Report↗

USGS2012

Coastal impacts, adaptation, and vulnerabilities: a technical input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment

The coast has long provided communities with a multitude of benefits including an abundance of natural resources that sustain economies, societies, and ecosystems. Coasts provide natural harbors for commerce, trade, and transportation; beaches and shorelines that attract residents and tourists; and wetlands and estuaries that are critical for fisheries and water resources. Coastal ecosystems provide critical functions to cycle and move nutrients, store carbon, detoxify wastes, and purify air and water. These areas also mitigate floods and buffer against coastal storms that bring high winds and salt water inland and erode the shore. Coastal regions are critical in the development, transportation, and processing of oil and natural gas resources and, more recently, are being explored as a source of energy captured from wind and waves. The many benefits and opportunities provided in coastal areas have strengthened our economic reliance on coastal resources. Consequently, the high demands placed on the coastal environment will increase commensurately with human activity. Because 35 U.S. states, commonwealths, and territories have coastlines that border the oceans or Great Lakes, impacts to coastline systems will reverberate through social, economic, and natural systems across the U.S. Impacts on coastal systems are among the most costly and most certain consequences of a warming climate (Nicholls et al., 2007). The warming atmosphere is expected to accelerate sea-level rise as a result of the decline of glaciers and ice sheets and the thermal expansion of sea water. As mean sea level rises, coastal shorelines will retreat and low-lying areas will tend to be inundated more frequently, if not permanently, by the advancing sea. As atmospheric temperature increases and rainfall patterns change, soil moisture and runoff to the coast are likely to be altered. An increase in the intensity of climatic extremes such as storms and heat spells, coupled with other impacts of climate change and the effects of human development, could affect the sustainability of many existing coastal communities and natural resources. This report, one of a series of technical inputs for the third NCA conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, examines the known effects and relationships of climate change variables on the coasts of the U.S. It describes the impacts on natural and human systems, including several major sectors of the U.S. economy, and the progress and challenges to planning and implementing adaptation options. Below we present the key findings from each chapter of the report, beginning with the following key findings from Chapter 1: Introduction and Context.

Book↗

USGS2014

The impact of climate change on coastal ecosystems

In this chapter we stress two important features of coasts and coastal ecosystems. First, these are dynamic systems which continually undergo adjustments, especially through erosion and re-deposition, in response to a range of processes. Many coastal ecosystems adjust naturally at a range of time scales and their potential for response is examined partly by reconstructing how such systems have coped with natural changes of climate and sea level in the geological past. Second, coasts have changed profoundly through the 20th Century due to the impacts of human development (such as urbanisation, port and industrial expansion, shore protection, and the draining and conversion of coastal wetlands), with these development-related drivers closely linked to a growing global population and economy. It remains a challenge to isolate the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise from either the natural trajectory of shoreline change, or the accelerated pathway resulting from other human-related stressors. There exists a danger of overstating the importance of climate change, or overlooking significant interactions of climate change with other drivers.

Book chapter↗

USGS2014

Quantifying the effectiveness of conservation measures to control the spread of anthropogenic hybridization in stream salmonids: A climate adaptation case study

Quantifying the effectiveness of management actions to mitigate the effects of changing climatic conditions (i.e., climate adaptation) can be difficult, yet critical for conservation. We used population genetic data from 1984 to 2011 to assess the degree to which ambient climatic conditions and targeted suppression of sources of nonnative Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss have influenced the spread of introgressive hybridization in native populations of Westslope Cutthroat Trout O. clarkii lewisi . We found rapid expansion in the spatial distribution and proportion of nonnative genetic admixture in hybridized populations from 1984 to 2004, but minimal change since 2004. The spread of hybridization was negatively correlated with the number of streamflow events in May that exceeded the 75th percentile of historic flows ( r = −0.98) and positively correlated with August stream temperatures ( r = 0.89). Concomitantly, suppression data showed a 60% decline in catch per unit effort for fish with a high proportion of Rainbow Trout admixture, rendering some uncertainty as to the relative strength of factors controlling the spread of hybridization. Our results illustrate the importance of initiating management actions to mitigate the potential effects of climate change, even where data describing the effectiveness of such actions are initially limited but the risks are severe.

Montana↗

USGS2015

Coastal and wetland ecosystems of the Chesapeake Bay watershed: Applying palynology to understand impacts of changing climate, sea level, and land use

The mid-Atlantic region and Chesapeake Bay watershed have been influenced by fluctuations in climate and sea level since the Cretaceous, and human alteration of the landscape began ~12,000 years ago, with greatest impacts since colonial times. Efforts to devise sustainable management strategies that maximize ecosystem services are integrating data from a range of scientific disciplines to understand how ecosystems and habitats respond to different climatic and environmental stressors. Palynology has played an important role in improving understanding of the impact of changing climate, sea level, and land use on local and regional vegetation. Additionally, palynological analyses have provided biostratigraphic control for surficial mapping efforts and documented agricultural activities of both Native American populations and European colonists. This field trip focuses on sites where palynological analyses have supported efforts to understand the impacts of changing climate and land use on the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗

USGS2013

Global climate change impacts on coastal ecosystems in the Gulf of Mexico: Considerations for integrated coastal management

Gulf of Mexico↗

USGS2006

Mapping new terrain climate change and America’s West: Anticipating challenges to western mountain ecosystems and resources

Climate variability and sustained change presage far-reaching transformations across America’s West, an expanse dominated by immense mountain ranges and interspersed with important urban centers. These mountains provide the region’s life blood—water that courses through its streams and runs out its faucets, power that fuels its industries and lights its cities, and natural resources that feed its economy and provide many of its jobs. The West is a land where life is written in water—from vast ranchlands and farmlands, to large densely populated urban areas—and the communities of the West are intricately tied to it. Why should we be concerned about how climate change is affecting the mountains? Despite their imposing grandeur and apparent fortitude, the mountains contain highly sensitive environments that support delicately balanced physical and natural systems. A warming of only a few degrees has major implications for mountain regions—for the integrity of the seasonal snowpack, the extensive forests that western mountains support, and for the people who make their home there. Such changes are already affecting water supply, energy availability, fire severity, and recreational opportunities. Continuing climate change may significantly alter the western landscape, where one encounters distinct ecological communities as successive layers from the lowlands to the high peaks. Each of these ecosystems has specific requirements for temperature and precipitation. As climate variability increases and global warming continues, complex changes in montane plant and animal communities will occur, increasing vulnerability of species to dramatic shifts in distribution and local extinctions.

Report↗

USGS1967

Climate and streamflow of Puerto Rico

The presently available data on streamflow, runoff rainfall, and temperature of Puerto Rico are evaluated, although the period of record is very short, with a view to contributing to the knowledge of hydrology of tropical islands. The average annual streamflow in Puerto Rico is 45 percent of the annual rainfall, or 15 percent more than in the eastern piedmont of the U.S. where it is 30 percent. Climate is assumed to be responsible for this difference as well as for the differences of the flows of Puerto Rican streams which vary from 15 to 85 percent of the annual rainfall. Variations in the climate of Puerto Rico are shown by Thornthwaite's climatic index on a map of the island, and the variations of the streamflow to rainfall ratios of Puerto Rican streams are shown to be related to Thornthwaite's climatic index.

Caribbean Journal of Science↗

USGS2016

Acadia National Park Climate Change Scenario Planning Workshop summary

This report summarizes outcomes from a two-day scenario planning workshop for Acadia National Park, Maine (ACAD). The primary objective of the workshop was to help ACAD senior leadership make management and planning decisions based on up-to-date climate science and assessments of future uncertainty. The workshop was also designed as a training program, helping build participants' capabilities to develop and use scenarios. The details of the workshop are given in later sections. The climate scenarios presented here are based on published global climate model output. The scenario implications for resources and management decisions are based on expert knowledge distilled through scientist-manager interaction during workgroup break-out sessions at the workshop. Thus, the descriptions below are from these small-group discussions in a workshop setting and should not be taken as vetted research statements of responses to the climate scenarios, but rather as insights and examinations of possible futures (Martin et al. 2011, McBride et al. 2012).

Conference Paper↗

USGS2017

Small mammals as indicators of climate, biodiversity, and ecosystem change

Climate is a driving evolutionary force for biodiversity in high-latitude Alaska. This region is complex and dynamic with high annual variation in temperature and light. Through deeper time, Alaska has experienced major climate extremes over much longer periodicity. For example, the Quaternary Period (the last ~2.5 million years), commonly known as the Ice Age, was punctuated by more than 20 major glacial-interglacial cycles. During glacial phases, water was locked up in ice sheets that covered much of North America, and the resulting lower sea levels exposed a land connection between Alaska and Siberia, a combined region known as Beringia (Figure 1). This isthmus provided vast expanses of land for species to inhabit, provided they could withstand potentially harsh polar conditions. Each extended glacial phase periodically transitioned into a shorter interglacial warm phase. These climate reversals melted continental ice sheets to expose corridors for reinvasion of terrestrial species, particularly those associated with forested habitats further south. Those species that survived at northern latitudes through repeated glacial-interglacial cycles formed the Arctic tundra communities that persist today. At present, Alaska supports diverse communities associated with both tundra and forests (Figure 2). These communities often interact with one another across latitudinal and elevational gradients, with tundra species generally found further north or higher in elevation. Alaska’s climate is continuing to change today, strongly influencing local environments and the distribution and dynamics of wildlife species.

Alaska, Siberia↗

USGS2018

Increasing soil organic carbon to mitigate greenhouse gases and increase climate resiliency for California

Rising air temperatures are projected to continue to drive up urban, agricultural, and rangeland water use, straining both surface and groundwater resources. Scientific studies have shown that managing farms, ranches, and public lands to increase soil carbon can increase soil waterholding capacity and increase hydrologic benefits such as increased baseflows and aquifer recharge, reduced flooding and erosion, and reduced climate-related water deficits. Coincident improvements in forage and crop yields are also indicated, while simultaneously sequestering carbon, reducing atmospheric greenhouse gases and mitigating climate change. This study was developed to consider the multiple benefits of increasing the organic matter content of soils across California’s working lands. Study results indicate that a one-time ¼” application of compost to rangelands can lead to carbon sequestration rates in soils that are maximized after approximately 15 years, and more than offset greenhouse gas emissions stimulated by the compost addition for at least five decades longer. Modeled increases in total soil organic matter of 3% enhanced hydrologic benefits across 97% of working lands, and reduced climate change impacts. Economic valuation indicated all benefits increasing over time, demonstrating a large potential for the California carbon market to support incentives in regionalizing the impacts in the coming decades. Socioeconomic and related land use pressures pose barriers to implementing management practices to increase soil organic matter by driving conversion of rangeland to urban or to more greenhouse-gas emission intensive agriculture. Results can be effectively used with land use change scenarios to identify where on California’s working lands hydrologic benefits of soil organic matter enhancement coincide with development risk, highlighting counties in California in which there may be resilience to climate change when strategic soil management and land conservation are combined.

California↗

USGS2018

Sierra Nevada summary report. California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment

The Sierra Nevada region is critical to the environment and economy of California. Its places and peoples provide essential natural resources including fresh water, clean power, working lands, and famous wilderness. The region encompasses tremendous geographical, climatological, and ecological diversity that spans majestic mountains to deep desert basins. The climate consists of cool, wet winters and warm, dry summers with large differences due to latitude (e.g., the southern Sierra is snowier than northern Sierra) and topography (e.g., the Westside is wetter than the Eastside). Variability is another notable feature of the climate with the region experiencing some of the largest year-to-year climatic fluctuations in the United States. Herein we summarize our assessment of climate-change vulnerabilities and adaptation actions in the region.

Report↗

USGS2017

Climate change and collapsing thermal niches of Mexican endemic reptiles

Recent climate change should result in expansion of species to northern or high elevation range margins, and contraction at southern and low elevation margins due to extinction. Climate models predict dramatic extinctions and distributional shifts in the next century, but there are few ground-truths of these dire forecasts leading to uncertainty in predicting extinctions due to climate change. Previously, we reported on recent extinctions of Mexican Sceloporus lizards by comparing recent surveys to historical distributional records for 48 species at 200 sites. We also ground-truthed extinctions on five continents across 8 lizard families by comparing observed and predicted extinctions from an eco-physiological species distribution model and obtained a high R 2 of 0.72 (1, 2). Here, we derive more detailed predictions for 15 terrestrial reptile families and 142 species for the Mexican and California Biogeographic provinces using all known museum occurrence records, and detailed measures on eco-physiology. We adopt the eco-physiological model of extinction developed earlier but use a species-specific model. We predict massive and rapid extinctions of 22% of the reptile populations in Mexico within the next 50 years. We also predict that 3 of 15 reptile families, all three endemic to the Mexican and Californian biogeographic provinces, will go extinct by 2070, the hallmark of the beginnings of a mass extinction event. However, extinctions may be attenuated by forest cover and by presence of montane environments in contemporary ranges. We describe impacts of altitude on three species (Gopherus morafkai, G. evgoodei, and Gambelia sila) to illustrate regional management strategies (AZ-Mexico, Sinoloa, CA) for reserves in tandem with global strategies of CO2 limits that might limit climate impacts. By carefully selecting new montane preserves adjacent to desert and tropical forest habitats, and by implementing global controls on atmospheric CO2 emissions, extinctions may be reduced to less than 11% of species and only a single reptile family.

Report↗

USGS2020

A guidebook to spatial datasets for conservation planning under climate change in the Pacific Northwest

This guidebook provides user-friendly overviews of a variety of spatial datasets relevant to conservation and management of natural resources in the face of climate change in the Pacific Northwest, United States. Each guidebook chapter was created using a standardized template to summarize a spatial dataset or a group of closely related datasets. Datasets were selected according to standardized criteria based on input through a collaborative process involving researchers and natural-resource managers throughout the Pacific Northwest region. In each chapter, basic spatial and temporal information is provided for the dataset, along with a conceptual overview, glossary of key terms, links to download data and supporting documentation, a brief methods summary describing how the dataset was created, guidelines for dataset interpretation, assessment of uncertainties along with evaluation of caveats and simplifying assumptions, and information about potential and actual conservation applications of the dataset. Collectively, this information provides natural-resource managers with “snapshots” of a variety of datasets representing diverse processes and conditions, including climate projections, changes in hydrologic conditions, vegetation and fire-regime shifts, animal habitat changes, species movements, and topographic and soil conditions relevant to climate change. Along with other types of data and site-specific information, the datasets described in this guidebook have the potential to inform management of valued natural resources throughout the Pacific Northwest region in the context of adaptation to changing climate conditions.

Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington↗