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Geomagnetism Program research plan, 2020–2024

The Geomagnetism Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) monitors geomagnetic field variation through operation of a network of observatories across the United States and its territories, and it pursues scientific research needed to estimate and assess geomagnetic and geoelectric hazards. Over the next five years (2020–2024 inclusive) and in support of national and agency priorities, Geomagnetism Program research scientists plan to pursue an integrated set of research projects broadly encompassing empirical estimation and mapping of geomagnetic disturbance, modeling of solid-Earth conductivity structure and surface impedance, and mapping of magnetic-storm-induced geoelectric fields. Analyses are empirically based, relying on measured time series as well as statistical and numerical modeling of geomagnetic-monitoring data from ground-based observatories and surface-impedance tensors acquired during magnetotelluric surveys. The plan describes augmentation and development of the Geomagnetism Program's existing research portfolio, assuming present funding levels and staffing numbers. Because the projects are interdependent, they cannot be straightforwardly prioritized. They will all be pursued as resources and time permit; additional funding and staffing would enable the projects to be broadened and more rapidly completed. Where appropriate and subject to budgetary constraints and staffing numbers, research on specific projects might be accelerated or even judiciously expanded—some opportunities for expansion are discussed in this plan. Results will provide realistic illumination of the nature of the ground-level expression of space-weather disturbance, a subject of particular importance for projects focused on evaluating the vulnerability of electric-power-grid systems. This plan does not cover Geomagnetism Program operations, which are primarily concerned with the operation of magnetic observatories and, now, magnetotelluric surveys, although the context of such observatories and surveys is discussed. The research element of the program provides guidance for the expansion of program operations and research projects. In addition to the research projects summarized here, program scientists continue to provide leadership to the national and international geomagnetic, magnetotelluric, and space-weather communities.

Circular↗

Occurrence of Selected Nutrients, Trace Elements, and Organic Compounds in Streambed Sediment in the Lower Chena River Watershed near Fairbanks, Alaska, 2002-03

In 2002-03, the U.S. Geological Survey collected samples of streambed sediment at 18 sites in the lower Chena River watershed for analysis of selected nutrients, traces elements, and organic compounds. The purpose of the project was to provide Federal, State, and local agencies as well as neighborhood committees, with information for consideration in plans to improve environmental conditions in the watershed. The exploratory sampling program included analysis of streambed sediment from the Chena River and Chena Slough, a tributary to the Chena River. Results were compared to streambed-sediment guidelines for the protection of aquatic life and to 2001-02 sediment data from Noyes Slough, a side channel of the lower Chena River. The median total phosphorus concentration in Chena Slough sediment samples, 680 milligrams per kilogram (mg/kg), was two orders of magnitude greater than median total phosphorus concentration in Chena River sediment samples of 5.2 mg/kg. Median concentrations of chloride and sulfate also were greater in Chena Slough samples. Low concentrations of nitrate were detected in most of the Chena Slough samples; nitrate concentrations were below method reporting limits or not detected in Chena River sediment samples. Streambed-sediment samples were analyzed for 24 trace elements. Arsenic, nickel, and zinc were the only trace elements detected in concentrations that exceeded probable-effect levels for the protection of aquatic life. Concentrations of arsenic in Chena Slough samples ranged from 11 to 70 mg/kg and concentrations in most of the samples exceeded the probable-effect guideline for arsenic of 17 mg/kg. Arsenic concentrations in samples from the Chena River ranged from 9 to 12 mg/kg. The background level for arsenic in the lower Chena River watershed is naturally elevated because of significant concentrations of arsenic in local bedrock and ground water. Sources of elevated concentrations of zinc in one sample, and of nickel in two samples, are unknown. With the exception of elevated arsenic levels in samples from Chena Slough, the occurrence and concentration of trace elements in the streambed sediments of Chena Slough and Chena River were similar to those in Noyes Slough sediment. Sediment samples were analyzed for 78 semivolatile organic compounds and 32 organochlorine pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Low concentrations of dimethylnaphthalene and p-Cresol were detected in most Chena Slough and Chena River sediment samples. The number of semivolatile organic compounds detected ranged from 5 to 21 in most Chena Slough sediment samples. In contrast, three or fewer semivolatile organic compounds were detected in Chena River sediment samples, most likely because chemical-matrix interference resulted in elevated reporting limits for organochlorine compounds in the Chena River samples. Low concentrations of fluoranthene, pyrene, and phenanthrene were detected in Chena Slough sediment. Relatively low concentrations of DDT or its degradation products, DDD and DDE, were detected in all Chena Slough samples. Concentrations of total DDT (DDT+DDD+DDE) in two Chena Slough sediment samples exceeded the effectsrange median aquatic-life criteria of 46.1 micrograms per kilogram (ug/kg). DDT concentrations in Chena River streambed-sediment samples were less than 20 ug/kg. Low concentrations of PCB were detected in two Chena Slough streambed-sediment samples. None of the concentrations of the polychlorinated biphenyls or semivolatile organic compounds for which the samples were analyzed exceeded available guidelines for the protection of aquatic life. With the exception of elevated total DDT in two Chena Slough samples, the occurrence and concentration of organochlorine compounds in Chena Slough and Chena River sediment were similar to those in samples collected from Noyes Slough in 2001-02.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Field-trip guide to continental arc to rift volcanism of the southern Rocky Mountains—Southern Rocky Mountain, Taos Plateau, and Jemez Mountains volcanic fields of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico

The southern Rocky Mountains of northern New Mexico and southern Colorado preserve the Oligocene to Pleistocene record of North American continental arc to rift volcanism. The 35–23 million year old (Ma) southern Rocky Mountain volcanic field (SRMVF), spectacularly preserved in the San Juan Mountains of southern Colorado, records the evolution of large andesitic stratovolcanoes to complex caldera clusters, from which at least 22 major ignimbrite sheets (each 150–5,000 cubic kilometers) were erupted. Outflow deposits of the SRMVF preserved along the broadly uplifted northwest flank of the northern Rio Grande rift basin (the San Luis Valley) provide critical structural and temporal constraints on the inception of crustal extension. Coincident with waning stages of SRMVF caldera-forming volcanism (~25.4 Ma), extensional tectonism was accompanied by a transition from bimodal early Miocene to intermediate-composition late Miocene and dominantly basaltic Pliocene rift volcanism of the Taos Plateau in the southern San Luis Basin. Concomitant rift volcanism in the Española Basin and bordering Jemez Mountains of northern New Mexico records a similar Miocene eruptive history dominated by intermediate-composition volcanism that transitioned locally to Pliocene rift-related basaltic volcanism of the Cerros del Rio volcanic field and culminated in eruptions of the iconic rhyolitic Pleistocene Bandelier Tuff and formation of the Valles Caldera along the northwestern rift-basin margin. This 6-day, 7-night field trip will focus, in broadly equal proportions, on rift-related extensional volcanism of the Jemez Mountains and Taos Plateau regions during the first half of the trip, and on caldera-forming volcanism of the southern Rocky Mountain volcanic field during the second half of the trip. The 35-million-year volcanic history of the region highlighted by new geologic mapping, high-resolution geochronology, petrologic, geochemical, and geophysical data facilitates discussion of (1) the magmatic response to the tectonic transition from subducted-slab arc to continental-rift volcanism; (2) the nature and temporal evolution of rift magmas; (3) fault controls on the spatial evolution of rift magmatism; (4) the diversity of continental-arc ignimbrite volcanism and associated lavas; (5) ignimbrite caldera structure and associated intrusions in three-dimension; (6) the role of recycled crystal mush and magmatic cumulates during growth of Cordilleran batholiths; and (7) high-precision geochronologic contributions to interpretation of relations between regional tectonic and volcanic processes. Most stops will be along roads, but there will be moderate hikes on trails of less than 1-hour duration covering 1–2 kilometers (0.6–1.2 miles) with modest elevation gain of <150 meters (<492 feet). The route will progress in reverse stratigraphic order, starting in the Jemez Mountains of New Mexico and proceed northward to San Luis Basin and San Luis Hills before turning west to the southeast and central San Juan Mountains. Our last full day takes us to the little-visited and only recently mapped, Bonanza caldera of the northeastern San Juan Mountains and on the final day, we leave the San Luis Valley to briefly explore the Tertiary subvolcanic plutons of the Collegiate Range along the west side of the Arkansas Valley rift valley, en route to Denver. The authors of all daily contributions acknowledge the helpful reviews by Amy Gilmer and Joe Colgan and thank Christine Chan and Jeremy Havens for assistance with figures, tables, and guidebook text.

Colorado, New Mexico↗

Water levels and selected water-quality conditions in the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer in eastern Arkansas, 2014

In 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Arkansas Geological Survey and the Arkansas Natural Resources Commission, determined water-level altitudes in 468 wells in eastern Arkansas and collected water-quality samples from 144 wells. Water-level altitudes were calculated based on the measured depth to water in each well and used to construct a potentiometric-surface map of the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer, and the water-quality samples were analyzed for chloride and bromide concentrations. Upon completion of the potentiometric-surface map, 10 depressions in the potentiometric surface were identified in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain: two large depressions, five small depressions, and three areas of decreased water levels. Analyses of water-quality samples identified several areas of elevated chloride/bromide ratios. A water-level altitude difference map was constructed using 345 groundwater levels measured in 2010 and 2014. Differences in water-level altitude ranged from –10.2 feet in Craighead County to 18.00 feet in Prairie County. Analysis of the overall water-level altitude differences indicated a decline in approximately 84 percent of the wells measured in both 2010 and 2014, including in areas where previous studies indicated water-level altitude increases between 2008 and 2012. Analysis of long-term hydrographs of wells in the study area indicated that mean annual water levels declined in all but two counties. The decline in water levels observed in the hydrographs suggests continued growth of the cones of depression caused by groundwater use in the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer.

Arkansas↗

Systematic studies of Oryzomyine rodents (Muridae, Sigmodontinae): diagnoses and distributions of species formerly assigned to Oryzomys 'capito'

We describe the morphological species-boundaries and geographic distributions of ten Neotropical Oryzomys based on analyses of museum specimens (skins and skulls, examples preserved in fluid, chromosomal spreads, and information about collection sites from skin tags, field catalogs, and other sources). These species have been regarded as members of an Oryzomys capito complex and for a long time were consolidated into a single entity identified as O. capito. Our study documents the following: 1. Defining the limits of species within the O. capito complex first requires a comprehensive review and rigorous definition of O. capito itself. We consider Fischer's (1814) Mus megacephalus to be valid and available, designate a neotype to bear the name, and reinstate it as a senior synonym of capito Olfers (1818). We then provide a working definition of O. megacephalus and its close relative, O. laticeps, derived from analyses of morphometric variation, estimates of geographic distributions, and evaluations of synonyms. In our view, O. megacephalus occurs in Amazonia but also extends into eastern Paraguay; its synonyms are capito Olfers (1818), cephalotes Desmarest (1819), velutinus Allen and Chapman (1893), goeldi Thomas (1897), modestus Allen (1899), and perenensis Allen (1901). Oryzomys laticeps Lund (1840) occurs in the Atlantic Forest region of eastern Brazil. We designate a lectotype for laticeps and allocate the names saltator Winge (1887) and oniscus Thomas (1904) as synonyms. 2. We provide the first comprehensive taxonomic revision of Oryzomys yunganus Thomas (1902). Its range covers tropical evergreen rainforest formations in the Guiana region and the Amazon Basin where, as documented by voucher specimens, it has been collected at the same localities as O. megacephalus, O. nitidus, and O. tern of carotid arterial circulation, occlusal patterns of second upper and lower molars, cranial proportions, and chromosomal features. Appreciable intraspecific geographic variation occurs in diploid number of chromosomes and frequency of occurrence of the hypothenar plantar pad, but sampling inadequacies obscure the significance of this variation. Large body size is characteristic of populations in the western Amazon Basin and in the tepui region of eastern Venezuela; smaller size characterizes populations in the Guianas and along the eastern margin of the Amazon Basin. No other scientific name has been correctly associated with the species. Samples from Mirador, Palmera, and Mera in the western Andean foothills of central Ecuador possess a combination of pelage, cranial, and dental traits that distinguish them from all samples of O. yunganus. These specimens are the basis for a new species we describe here, one that is more closely related to O. yunganus than to any other member of the former O. 'capito' complex. 3. We redescribe Oryzomys bolivaris (reviewed by Pine, 1971, under the name O. bombycinus), amplify its geographic range, and contrast it with O. talamancae and O. alfaroi, two sympatric congeners often confused with it. A distinctive set of morphological traits allows unambiguous identification of specimens belonging to O. bolivaris. It is a trans-Andean species recorded from very wet tropical evergreen rainforests extending from eastern Honduras and Nicaragua through Costa Rica and Panama to western Colombia and Ecuador. Allen's (1901) bolivaris is the oldest name for this species; castaneus Allen (1901), rivularis Allen (1901), bombycinus Goldman (1912), alleni Goldman (1915), and orinus Pearson (1939) are synonyms. 4. We revise the definition of Oryzomys talamancae Allen (1891) provided by Musser and Williams (1985), document additional specimens, describe karyotypes from Ecuadoran and Venezuelan samples, and contrast its morphology, chromosomes, and distribution with those of O. alfaroi and O. megacephalus. The geographic distribution of O. talamancae is also trans-Andean, but it inh

Bulletin of the American Museum of Natural History↗

Transport of nitrogen and phosphorus in the Cedar River Basin, Iowa and Minnesota, 2000–15

Nitrate concentrations in the Cedar River in Iowa and Minnesota have increased from an average of less than 1.0 milligram per liter in the early 1900s to more than 5.0 milligrams per liter in the 2000s and have resulted in periodic water-quality impairment of the river. Spatial differences and temporal changes in nitrogen and phosphorus transport in the Cedar River Basin are described for the period from 2000 to 2015. Data used to estimate nitrogen and phosphorus transport were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey as part of six base-flow synoptic studies and by the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency and the Iowa Department of Natural Resources as part of their long-term stream and river monitoring programs. The Cedar River transported an annual average of 53,100 tons of total nitrogen and 2,510 tons of total phosphorus during 2000–15. Three subbasins yielded an annual average of more than 30 pounds per acre (lb/acre) of nitrogen to the Cedar River, whereas two subbasins yielded an annual average of less than 20 lb/acre of nitrogen. The average annual total phosphorus yield from the Little Cedar River subbasin (0.35 lb/acre) was only about 16 percent of the yield from the greatest total phosphorus yielding Lower Cedar River subbasin (more than 1.0 lb/acre). The annual total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads did not change significantly during the study. The relation between annual stream runoff and annual total nitrogen and total phosphorus yields was not spatially uniform across the Cedar River Basin. The Beaver Creek, Black Hawk Creek, and Wolf Creek subbasins yielded the most, and the Main Stem Middle Cedar River, the Lower Cedar River, and the Little Cedar River subbasins yielded the least amount of nitrogen for a given amount of runoff. The Lower Cedar River and Wolf Creek subbasins yielded the most and the West Fork Cedar River and the Little Cedar River subbasins yielded the least phosphorus for a given amount of runoff. The results of this study describe nutrient transport during 2000–15 that can be used to evaluate future progress of nutrient reduction strategies in the Cedar River Basin.

Iowa, Minnesota↗

Geology and natural history of the San Francisco Bay area: A field-trip guidebook

A National Association of Geoscience Teachers Far Western Section (NAGT-FWS) field conference is an ideal forum for learning about the geology and natural history of the San Francisco Bay area. We visit classic field sites, renew old friendships, and make new ones. This collection of papers includes field guides and road logs for all of the Bay-area trips held during the NAGT-FWS 2001 Fall Field Conference and supplemental chapters on other aspects of the area’s natural and human history. The trips touch on many aspects of the geology and natural hazards of the Bay area, especially urban problems associated with living on an active tectonic plate margin: earthquake faults, coastal erosion, landslides, and the utilization of land and natural resources. We hope this conference not only provides a two-day learning opportunity for conference participants but that students and educators will use this field guidebook for future teaching and research. Many thanks are due to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and San José State University (SJSU) for cohosting the conference. We are grateful to each of the field trip leaders for preparing the trips and writing the accompanying guides. We especially appreciate the many hours put in by the guidebook reviewers, Robert I. Tilling (USGS) and Paula Messina (SJSU), and to the USGS Western Publications Group for editing, layout, and web posting. Additional guidebook contributions include articles by John Galloway, Scott Starratt, Page Mosier, and Susan Toussaint. During the conference guest speakers include Robert I. Tilling (USGS Volcano Hazards Team) and Ross Stein (USGS Earthquake Hazards Team). Workshops prepared for the conference include GIS in the classroom, using USGS data by John Vogel (USGS) and Paula Messina (SJSU), and The Best of BAESI (Bay Area Earth Science Institute), a teacher training organization under the direction of Ellen Metzger (SJSU) and Richard Sedlock (SJSU). The conference provides an opportunity to showcase USGS scientific and education resources with self-guided tours of the USGS Library, the Earth Science Information Center (ESIC), the Visitor Center, and various laboratories on the USGS campus and includes a half-day participatory tour of the USGS research vessel the R/V Polaris and the USGS Marine Facility at the Port of Redwood City under the direction of Cynthia L. Brown, Francis Parchaso, and Tara Schraga. Beyond the names mentioned above, a host of USGS and SJSU staff, SJSU students, and NAGT-FWS members contributed to the preparation and orchestration of the conference. We couldn’t have done it alone. Leslie C. Gordon (USGS), Philip W. Stoffer (USGS), and Deborah Harden (SJSU) NAGT-FWS 2001 Fall Field Conference Organizers.

California↗

U.S. Geological Survey Energy and Minerals science strategy: A resource lifecycle approach

Executive Summary The economy, national security, and standard of living of the United States depend heavily on adequate and reliable supplies of energy and mineral resources. Based on population and consumption trends, the Nation’s use of energy and minerals can be expected to grow, driving the demand for ever broader scientific understanding of resource formation, location, and availability. In addition, the increasing importance of environmental stewardship, human health, and sustainable growth places further emphasis on energy and mineral resources research and understanding. Collectively, these trends in resource demand and the interconnectedness among resources will lead to new challenges and, in turn, require cutting-edge science for the next generation of societal decisions. The long and continuing history of U.S. Geological Survey contributions to energy and mineral resources science provide a solid foundation of core capabilities upon which new research directions can grow. This science strategy provides a framework for the coming decade that capitalizes on the growth of core capabilities and leverages their application toward new or emerging challenges in energy and mineral resources research, as reflected in five interrelated goals. Goal 1.—Understand fundamental Earth processes that form energy and mineral resources Goal 2.—Understand the environmental behavior of energy and mineral resources and their waste products Goal 3.—Provide inventories and assessments of energy and mineral resources Goal 4.—Understand the effects of energy and mineral development on natural resources and society Goal 5.—Understand the reliability and availability of energy and mineral supplies Within each goal, multiple actions are identified. The level of specificity and complexity of these actions varies, consistent with the reality that even a modest refocus can yield large payoffs in the near term whereas more ambitious plans may take years to reach fruition. As such, implementation of these actions is largely dependent on available resources and the sequencing of prerequisite steps. This science strategy places an emphasis on interdisciplinary collaboration and leveraging of expertise across the U.S. Geological Survey and with external partners.

Circular↗

Water-quality, biological, and physical-habitat conditions at fixed sites in the Cook Inlet Basin, Alaska, National Water-Quality Assessment Study Unit, October 1998-September 2001

The Cook Inlet Basin study unit of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program comprises 39,325 square miles in south-central Alaska. Data were collected at eight fixed sites to provide baseline information in areas where no development has taken place, urbanization or logging have occurred, or the effects of recreation are increasing. Collection of water-quality, biology, and physical-habitat data began in October 1998 and ended in September 2001 (water years 1999-2001). The climate for the water years in the study may be categorized as slightly cool-wet (1999), slightly warm-wet (2000), and significantly warm-dry (2001). Total precipitation was near normal during the study period, and air temperatures ranged from modestly cool in water year 1999 to near normal in 2000, and to notably warm in 2001. Snowmelt runoff dominates the hydrology of streams in the Cook Inlet Basin. Average annual flows at the fixed sites were approximately the same as the long-term average annual flows, with the exception of those in glacier-fed basins, which had above-average flow in water year 2001. Water temperature of all streams studied in the Cook Inlet Basin remained at 0 oC for about 6 months per year, and average annual water temperatures ranged from 3.3 to 6.2 degrees Celsius. Of the water-quality constituents sampled, all concentrations were less than drinking-water standards and only one constituent, the pesticide carbaryl, exceeded aquatic-life standards. Most of the stream waters of the Cook Inlet Basin were classified as calcium bicarbonate, which reflects the underlying geology. Streams in the Cook Inlet Basin draining areas with glaciers, rough mountainous terrain, and poorly developed soils have low concentrations of nitrogen, phosphorus, and dissolved organic carbon compared with concentrations of these same constituents in streams in lowland or urbanized areas. In streams draining relatively low-lying areas, most of the suspended sediment, nutrients, and dissolved organic carbon are transported in the spring from the melting snowpack. The urbanized stream, Chester Creek, had the highest concentrations of calcium, magnesium, chloride, and sodium, most likely because of the application of de-icing materials during the winter. Several volatile organic compounds and pesticides also were detected in samples from this stream. Aquatic communities in the Cook Inlet Basin are naturally different than similar sites in the contiguous United States because of the unique conditions of the northern latitudes where the Cook Inlet Basin is located, such as extreme diurnal cycles and long periods of ice cover. Blue-green algae was the dominant algae found at all sites although in some years green algae was the most dominant algae. Macroinvertebrate communities consist primarily of Diptera (true flies), Ephemeroptera (mayflies), and Plecoptera (stoneflies). Lowland areas have higher abundance of aquatic communities than glacier-fed basins. However, samples from the urbanized stream, Chester Creek, were dominated by oligochaetes, a class of worms. Most of the functional feeding groups were collector-gatherers. The number of taxa for both algae and macroinvertebrates were highest in water year 2001, which may be due to the relative mild winter of 2000?2001 and the above average air temperatures for this water year. The streams in the Cook Inlet Basin typically are low gradient. Bank substrates consist of silt, clay, or sand, and bed substrate consists of coarse gravel or cobbles. Vegetation is primarily shrubs and woodlands with spruce or cottonwood trees. Canopy angles vary with the size of the stream or river and are relatively low at the smaller streams and high at the larger streams. Suitable fish habitat, such as woody debris, pools, cobble substrate, and overhanging vegetation, is found at most sites. Of the human activities occurring in the fixed site basins ? high recreational use, logging, and urbanizat

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Detailed interpretation of aeromagnetic data from the Patagonia Mountains area, southeastern Arizona

The induced magnetic field and the remanent magnetic field of rock masses are important to geologic modeling based on Earth&rsquo;s magnetic field data. The orientation of the induced magnetic field is approximately parallel to the orientation of Earth&rsquo;s geomagnetic field and its intensity can be derived from measured magnetic susceptibilities of rocks in a study area. The orientation and intensity of the natural remanent magnetic field is much harder to determine; therefore, few investigators have included magnetic remanence as a contributing factor to studies of continental magnetic anomalies. All rocks have remanent magnetism and, in intrusive or volcanic rocks, this component of the total magnetic intensity of the Earth&rsquo;s magnetic field can be as large as or larger than the induced component. The Patagonia Mountains in southeastern Arizona were selected to produce a subsurface geologic model from aeromagnetic data by incorporating physical properties of rock including measured magnetic susceptibilities, estimated remanent magnetic field orientations and intensities, a known association of intrusive events, and information from existing geologic mapping. The result is a model of geology at depth that may better represent reality than previous poorly substantiated cross sectional models. This new model includes concealed intrusive rocks and defines areas where concealed mineral deposits may be found. It also shows that volcanic rocks might occupy basins at relatively shallow depths in basins with low aeromagnetic anomalies. Euler deconvolution depth estimates derived from aeromagnetic data with a structural index of 0 show that mapped faults on the northern margin of the Patagonia Mountains generally agree with the depth estimates in the new geologic model. The deconvolution depth estimates also show that the concealed Patagonia Fault southwest of the Patagonia Mountains is more complex than recent geologic mapping represents. Additionally, Euler deconvolution depth estimates with a structural index of 2 locate many potential intrusive bodies that might be associated with known and unknown mineralization.

Arizona↗

Analysis of ground-water levels and associated trends in Yucca Flat, Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada, 1951-2003

Almost 4,000 water-level measurements in 216 wells in the Yucca Flat area from 1951 to 2003 were quality assured and analyzed. An interpretative database was developed that describes water-level conditions for each water level measured in Yucca Flat. Multiple attributes were assigned to each water-level measurement in the database to describe the hydrologic conditions at the time of measurement. General quality, temporal variability, regional significance, and hydrologic conditions are attributed for each water-level measurement. The database also includes narratives that discuss the water-level history of each well. Water levels in 34 wells were analyzed for variability and for statistically significant trends. An attempt was made to identify the cause of many of the water-level fluctuations or trends. Potential causes include equilibration following well construction or development, pumping in the monitoring well, withdrawals from a nearby supply well, recharge from precipitation, earthquakes, underground nuclear tests, land subsidence, barometric pressure, and Earth tides. Some of the naturally occurring fluctuations in water levels may result from variations in recharge. The magnitude of the overall water-level change for these fluctuations generally is less than 2 feet. Long-term steady-state hydrographs for most of the wells open to carbonate rock have a very similar pattern. Carbonate-rock wells without the characteristic pattern are directly west of the Yucca and Topgallant faults in the southwestern part of Yucca Flat. Long-term steady-state hydrographs from wells open to volcanic tuffs or the Eleana confining unit have a distinctly different pattern from the general water-level pattern of the carbonate-rock aquifers. Anthropogenic water-level fluctuations were caused primarily by water withdrawals and nuclear testing. Nuclear tests affected water levels in many wells. Trends in these wells are attributed to test-cavity infilling or the effects of depressurization following nuclear testing. The magnitude of the overall water-level change for wells with anthropogenic trends can be large, ranging from several feet to hundreds of feet. Vertical water-level differences at 27 sites in Yucca Flat with multiple open intervals were compared. Large vertical differences were noted in volcanic rocks and in boreholes where water levels were affected by nuclear tests. Small vertical differences were noted within the carbonate-rock and valley-fill aquifers. Vertical hydraulic gradients generally are downward in volcanic rocks and from pre-Tertiary clastic rocks toward volcanic- or carbonate-rock units.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Ecology of bonytail and razorback sucker and the role of off-channel habitats in their recovery

The bonytail and razorback sucker are two of four endangered mainstem fishes found in the Colorado River. Unlike the Colorado pikeminnow and humpback chub, wild populations of the bonytail and razorback sucker are either extirpated from the mainstem river or are nearly so. Agencies are aggressively stocking these fish and while repatriated fish spawn, their young are rapidly eaten by introduced predators. A decade of predator removal efforts has proved ineffective in restoring natural recruitment. Today, the presence of these species is totally dependent on stocking, suggesting both species are worse off today than when recovery efforts began nearly two decades ago. In contrast, both species readily produce young in ponds where nonnative predators are absent. Evidence shows they evolved with the ability to spawn in both flowing and standing water, which suggests isolated oxbow communities may have been an essential feature in their evolution and survival strategy. Sustainable populations during the past few decades have only occurred in isolated ponds devoid of predatory nonnative fish. Efforts to force recovery in the main channel river continue to fail due to the presence of nonnative predators that may be economically important recreational species. Off-channel sanctuaries provide research and management opportunities on a scale that are both biologically and economically realistic. Effective management of these species in small habitats appears to be the most logical approach to advance recovery in larger river reaches. This report presents new findings, updates existing information, and describes what may well represent the only practical approach to these species&rsquo; conservation and recovery. Chapter 1 provides an overview of the Colorado River system from its origin to the Gulf of California and includes a description of propagation and stocking programs which have not been described elsewhere. The report also updates what is known or suspected on the life history and ecology of these two endangered fishes. Chapter 2 describes the successful recruitment of both species at an oxbow pond on the Cibola National Wildlife Refuge in Arizona, discusses factors that contribute to completion of the life cycle of both fishes, and provides recommendations for future management of the impoundment. Chapter 3 provides historical evidence that oxbow habitats were formed historically in years of high runoff and the importance of these habitats for survival and evolution of native fishes. It also summarizes key features of habitats that can serve as sanctuaries that enhance early survival of the endangered fishes and allow the fish to complete their entire life cycles.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Application of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin in the southeastern United States

A hydrologic model of the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River Basin (ACFB) has been developed as part of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center effort to provide integrated science that helps resource managers understand the effect of climate change on a range of ecosystem responses. The hydrologic model was developed as part of the Southeast Regional Assessment Project using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a deterministic, distributed-parameter, process-based system that simulates the effects of precipitation, temperature, and land use on basin hydrology. The ACFB PRMS model simulates streamflow throughout the approximately 50,700 square-kilometer basin on a daily time step for the period 1950–99 using gridded climate forcings of air temperature and precipitation, and parameters derived from spatial data layers of altitude, land cover, soils, surficial geology, depression storage (small water bodies), and data from 56 USGS streamgages. Measured streamflow data from 35 of the 56 USGS streamgages were used to calibrate and evaluate simulated basin streamflow; the remaining gage locations were used for model delineation only. The model matched measured daily streamflow at 31 of the 35 calibration gages with Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency Index (NS) greater than 0.6. Streamflow data for some calibration gages were augmented for regulation and water use effects to represent more natural flow volumes. Time-static parameters describing land cover limited the ability of the simulation to match historical runoff in the more developed subbasins. Overall, the PRMS simulation of the ACFB provides a good representation of basin hydrology on annual and monthly time steps. Calibration subbasins were analyzed by separating the 35 subbasins into five classes based on physiography, land use, and stream type (tributary or mainstem). The lowest NS values were rarely below 0.6, whereas the median NS for all five classes was within 0.74 to 0.96 for annual mean streamflow, 0.89 to 0.98 for mean monthly streamflow, and 0.82 to 0.98 for monthly mean streamflow. The median bias for all five classes was within –4.3 to 0.8 percent for annual mean streamflow, –6.3 to 0.5 percent for mean monthly streamflow, and –9.3 to 1.3 percent for monthly mean streamflow. The NS results combined with the percent bias results indicated a good to very good streamflow volume simulation for all subbasins. This simulation of the ACFB provides a foundation for future modeling and interpretive studies. Streamflow and other components of the hydrologic cycle simulated by PRMS can be used to inform other types of simulations; water-temperature, hydrodynamic, and ecosystem-dynamics simulations are three examples. In addition, possible future hydrologic conditions could be studied using this model in combination with land cover projections and downscaled general circulation model results.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia↗

Status and threats analysis for the Florida manatee ( Trichechus manatus latirostris ), 2016

Trichechus manatus (West Indian manatee), especially T. m. latirostris , the Florida subspecies, has been the focus of conservation efforts and extensive research since its listing under the Endangered Species Act of 1973. To determine the status of, and severity of threats to, the Florida manatee, a comprehensive revision and update of the manatee Core Biological Model was completed and used to perform a population viability analysis for the Florida manatee. The probability of the Florida manatee population falling below 500 adults on either the Gulf or East coast within the next 100 years was estimated to be 0.42 percent. This risk of quasi-extinction is low because the estimated adult survival rates are high, the current population size is greater than 2,500 on each coast, and the estimated carrying capacity for manatees is much larger than the current abundance estimates in all four regions of Florida. Three threats contribute in roughly equal measures to the risk of quasi-extinction: watercraft-related mortality, red-tide mortality, and loss of warm-water habitat. Only an increase in watercraft-related mortality has the potential to substantially increase the risk of quasi-extinction at the statewide or coastal level. Expected losses of warm-water habitat are likely to cause a major change in the distribution of the population from the regions where manatees rely heavily on power plant effluents for warmth in winter (Southwest and Atlantic regions) to the regions where manatees primarily use natural springs in winter (Northwest and Upper St. Johns regions). The chances are nearly 50 percent that manatee populations in the Southwest and Atlantic regions will decrease from their 2011 levels by at least 30 percent over the next century. A large number of scenarios were examined to explore the possible effects of potential emerging threats, and in most of them, the risk of quasi-extinction at the coastal scale within 100 years did not rise above 1 percent. The four exceptions are scenarios in which the rate of watercraft-related mortality increases, carrying capacity is only a fraction of the current estimates, a new chronic source of mortality emerges, or multiple threats emerge in concert. Even in these scenarios, however, the risk of falling below 500 adults on either the East coast or the Gulf coast within 100 years from 2011 is less than 10 percent. High adult survival provides the population with strong resilience to a variety of current and future threats. On the basis of these analyses, we conclude that if these threats continue to be managed effectively, manatees are likely to persist on both coasts of Florida and remain an integral part of the coastal Florida ecosystem through the 21st century. If vigilance in management is reduced, however, the scenarios in which manatees could face risk of decline become more likely.

Florida↗

Suspended sediment, turbidity, and stream water temperature in the Sauk River Basin, western Washington, water years 2012-16

The Sauk River is a federally designated Wild and Scenic River that drains a relatively undisturbed landscape along the western slope of the North Cascade Mountain Range, Washington, which includes the glaciated volcano, Glacier Peak. Naturally high sediment loads characteristic of basins draining volcanoes like Glacier Peak make the Sauk River a dominant contributor of sediment to the downstream main stem river, the Skagit River. Additionally, the Sauk River serves as important spawning and rearing habitat for several salmonid species in the greater Skagit River system. Because of the importance of sediment to morphology, flow-conveyance, and ecosystem condition, there is interest in understanding the magnitude and timing of suspended sediment and turbidity from the Sauk River system and its principal tributaries, the White Chuck and Suiattle Rivers, to the Skagit River. Suspended-sediment measurements, turbidity data, and water temperature data were collected at two U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in the upper and middle reaches of the Sauk River over a 4-year period extending from October 2011 to September 2015, and at a downstream location in the lower river for a 5-year period extending from October 2011 to September 2016. Over the collective 5-year study period, mean annual suspended-sediment loads at the three streamgages on the upper, middle, and lower Sauk River streamgages were 94,200 metric tons (t), 203,000 t, and 940,000 t streamgages, respectively. Fine (smaller than 0.0625 millimeter) total suspended-sediment load averaged 49 percent at the upper Sauk River streamgage, 42 percent at the middle Sauk River streamgage, and 34 percent at the lower Sauk River streamgage.

Washington↗

Assessment of natural gas pipeline construction on stream temperature and turbidity in southwestern Virginia, 2017–25

Despite the extensive natural gas pipeline network in the United States that intersects streams and other sensitive habitats, few case studies use a comparative upstream-to-downstream approach to evaluate potential short- and long-term effects of pipeline stream crossings from pre-construction through post-restoration. In 2017, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality, deployed real-time continuous stream monitoring stations upstream and downstream from six proposed Mountain Valley Pipeline stream crossings in southwestern Virginia. Water temperature and turbidity data collected at the upstream and downstream sites were compared across three periods—before stream crossing construction, during stream crossing construction, and after stream crossing construction—to determine potential influences from the pipeline stream crossing. Additionally, the monitoring network was used to notify regulators of potentially anomalous conditions throughout the entire monitoring period. The results of this study indicate that pipeline stream crossing did not affect long-term or short-term upstream-to-downstream water temperature conditions or long-term upstream-to-downstream turbidity conditions in any of the six monitored streams. Some short-term anomalously elevated turbidity conditions were observed and attributable to pipeline stream crossing; however, the magnitudes and durations were not sufficient to alter the long-term turbidity regimes of the streams in which they were observed. The application of the monitoring network as a real-time alert system successfully alerted regulators to potentially anomalous conditions.

Virginia↗

A revised logistic regression equation and an automated procedure for mapping the probability of a stream flowing perennially in Massachusetts

A revised logistic regression equation and an automated procedure were developed for mapping the probability of a stream flowing perennially in Massachusetts. The equation provides city and town conservation commissions and the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection a method for assessing whether streams are intermittent or perennial at a specific site in Massachusetts by estimating the probability of a stream flowing perennially at that site. This information could assist the environmental agencies who administer the Commonwealth of Massachusetts Rivers Protection Act of 1996, which establishes a 200-foot-wide protected riverfront area extending from the mean annual high-water line along each side of a perennial stream, with exceptions for some urban areas. The equation was developed by relating the observed intermittent or perennial status of a stream site to selected basin characteristics of naturally flowing streams (defined as having no regulation by dams, surface-water withdrawals, ground-water withdrawals, diversion, wastewater discharge, and so forth) in Massachusetts. This revised equation differs from the equation developed in a previous U.S. Geological Survey study in that it is solely based on visual observations of the intermittent or perennial status of stream sites across Massachusetts and on the evaluation of several additional basin and land-use characteristics as potential explanatory variables in the logistic regression analysis. The revised equation estimated more accurately the intermittent or perennial status of the observed stream sites than the equation from the previous study. Stream sites used in the analysis were identified as intermittent or perennial based on visual observation during low-flow periods from late July through early September 2001. The database of intermittent and perennial streams included a total of 351 naturally flowing (no regulation) sites, of which 85 were observed to be intermittent and 266 perennial. Stream sites included in the database had drainage areas that ranged from 0.04 to 10.96 square miles. Of the 66 stream sites with drainage areas greater than 2.00 square miles, 2 sites were intermittent and 64 sites were perennial. Thus, stream sites with drainage areas greater than 2.00 square miles were assumed to flow perennially, and the database used to develop the logistic regression equation included only those stream sites with drainage areas less than 2.00 square miles. The database for the equation included 285 stream sites that had drainage areas less than 2.00 square miles, of which 83 sites were intermittent and 202 sites were perennial. Results of the logistic regression analysis indicate that the probability of a stream flowing perennially at a specific site in Massachusetts can be estimated as a function of four explanatory variables: (1) drainage area (natural logarithm), (2) areal percentage of sand and gravel deposits, (3) areal percentage of forest land, and (4) region of the state (eastern region or western region). Although the equation provides an objective means of determining the probability of a stream flowing perennially at a specific site, the reliability of the equation is constrained by the data used in its development. The equation is not recommended for (1) losing stream reaches or (2) streams whose ground-water contributing areas do not coincide with their surface-water drainage areas, such as many streams draining the Southeast Coastal Region-the southern part of the South Coastal Basin, the eastern part of the Buzzards Bay Basin, and the entire area of the Cape Cod and the Islands Basins. If the equation were used on a regulated stream site, the estimated intermittent or perennial status would reflect the natural flow conditions for that site. An automated mapping procedure was developed to determine the intermittent or perennial status of stream sites along reaches throughout a basin. The procedure delineates the drainage area boundaries, determines values for the four explanatory variables, and solves the equation for estimating the probability of a stream flowing perennially at two locations on a headwater (first-order) stream reach-one near its confluence or end point and one near its headwaters or start point. The automated procedure then determines the intermittent or perennial status of the reach on the basis of the calculated probability values and a probability cutpoint (a stream is considered to flow perennially at a cutpoint of 0.56 or greater for this study) for the two locations or continues to loop upstream or downstream between locations less than and greater than the cutpoint of 0.56 to determine the transition point from an intermittent to a perennial stream. If the first-order stream reach is determined to be intermittent, the procedure moves to the next downstream reach and repeats the same process. The automated procedure then moves to the next first-order stream and repeats the process until the entire basin is mapped. A map of the intermittent and perennial stream reaches in the Shawsheen River Basin is provided on a CD-ROM that accompanies this report. The CD-ROM also contains ArcReader 9.0, a freeware product, that allows a user to zoom in and out, set a scale, pan, turn on and off map layers (such as a USGS topographic map), and print a map of the stream site with a scale bar. Maps of the intermittent and perennial stream reaches in Massachusetts will provide city and town conservation commissions and the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection with an additional method for assessing the intermittent or perennial status of stream sites.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Assessing geomorphic change along the Trinity River downstream from Lewiston Dam, California, 1980-2011

The Trinity River Restoration Program, one of the nation&rsquo;s largest adaptively managed river restoration programs, requires periodic assessment to determine the effectiveness of management actions in restoring channel dynamics and habitat features. This study documents riparian and channel changes along an intensively managed 65-kilometer reach of the Trinity River in California, downstream from Lewiston Dam. The two primary periods of interest, from 1980 to 2001 and from 2001 to 2011, are separated by a shift in restoration activities mandated by the U.S. Department of the Interior December 2000 Record of Decision. The post-2001 restoration strategy increased managed-flow releases, gravel augmentation, watershed restoration, and mechanical channel rehabilitation. We assessed the nature and extent of geomorphic change and a series of ecological performance measures (channel complexity, shoreline length, and channel&ndash;floodplain connectivity) by using a series of maps digitized from available rectified orthophotography acquired during low-flow conditions in 1980, 1997, 2001, 2006, 2009, and 2011. Lateral changes in riparian and channel features were used to quantify alluvial processes, and a review of existing streamflow, sediment, and restoration records was used to assess causal mechanisms. During the study period, natural bank erosion and mechanical rehabilitation of channel margins converted riparian features to channel features and expanded the active-channel area. The primary period of bank erosion and expansion of the active channel was from 1980 to 1997. Subsequent bar accretion from 1997 to 2001, followed by slightly greater bar scour from 2001 to 2006, took place primarily in the central and lower reaches of the study area, downstream of Indian Creek. In comparison, post‑2006 bank and bar changes were spatially limited to reaches that had sufficient local transport capacity or sediment supply supported by gravel augmentation, mechanical channel rehabilitation, and tributary contributions. The highest rates of change in the areal extents of channel and riparian features were observed during the pre‑2001 period, which was longer and relatively wetter than the post-2001 period. A series of tributary floods in 1997, 1998, and 2006 increased channel complexity and floodplain connectivity. During the post-2006 period, managed-flow releases, in the absence of tributary flooding, combined with gravel augmentation and mechanical restoration, caused localized increases in sediment supply and transport capacity that led to smaller, but measurable, increases in channel complexity and floodplain connectivity in the upper river near Lewiston Dam. Extensive pre-2001 channel widening and the muted geomorphic response of channel rehabilitation sites to post-2001 managed flows highlight the need for continued monitoring and assessment of the magnitude, duration, and timing of prescriptive flows and associated geomorphic responses.

California↗