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At least 1,279 records · Page 71Linked to original sources
USGS2018

Enhancement of a parsimonious water balance model to simulate surface hydrology in a glacierized watershed

The U.S. Geological Survey monthly water balance model (MWBM) was enhanced with the capability to simulate glaciers in order to make it more suitable for simulating cold region hydrology. The new model, MWBMglacier, is demonstrated in the heavily glacierized and ecologically important Copper River watershed in Southcentral Alaska. Simulated water budget components compared well to satellite‐based observations and ground measurements of streamflow, evapotranspiration, snow extent, and total water storage, with differences ranging from 0.2% to 7% of the precipitation flux. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency for simulated and observed streamflow was greater than 0.8 for six of eight stream gages. Snow extent matched satellite‐based observations with Nash Sutcliffe efficiency values of greater than 0.89 in the four Copper River ecoregions represented. During the simulation period 1949 to 2009, glacier ice melt contributed 25% of total runoff, ranging from 12% to 45% in different tributaries, and glacierized area was reduced by 6%. Statistically significant ( p < 0.05) decreasing and increasing trends in annual glacier mass balance occurred during the multidecade cool and warm phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, respectively, reinforcing the link between climate perturbations and glacier mass balance change. The simulations of glaciers and total runoff for a large, remote region of Alaska provide useful data to evaluate hydrologic, cryospheric, ecologic, and climatic trends. MWBM glacier is a valuable tool to understand when, and to what extent, streamflow may increase or decrease as glaciers respond to a changing climate.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
USGS2018

A global empirical model for near real-time assessment of seismically induced landslides

Earthquake-triggered landslides are a significant hazard in seismically active regions, but our ability to assess the hazard they pose in near real-time is limited. In this study, we present a new globally applicable model for seismically induced landslides based on the most comprehensive global dataset available; we use 23 landslide inventories that span a range of earthquake magnitudes and climatic and tectonic settings. We use logistic regression to relate the presence and distribution of earthquake-triggered landslides with spatially distributed estimates of ground shaking, topographic slope, lithology, land-cover type, and a topographic index designed to estimate variability in soil wetness to provide an empirical model of landslide distribution. We tested over 100 combinations of independent predictor variables to find the best-fitting model, using a diverse set of statistical tests. Blind validation tests show the model accurately estimates the distribution of available landslide inventories. The results indicate that the model is reliable and stable, with high “balanced accuracy” (correctly vs. incorrectly classified pixels) for the majority of test events. A cross validation analysis shows high balanced accuracy for a majority of events as well. By combining near-real time estimates of ground shaking with globally available landslide susceptibility data, this model provides a tool to estimate the distribution of co-seismic landslide hazard within minutes of the occurrence of any earthquake worldwide for which a USGS ShakeMap is available.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface↗
USGS2018

Long-term evolution of sand transport through a river network: Relative influences of a dam versus natural changes in grain size from sand waves

Temporal and spatial nonuniformity in supplies of water and sand in a river network leads to sand transport that is in local disequilibrium with the upstream sand supply. In such river networks, sand is transported downstream as elongating waves in which coupled changes in grain size and transport occur. Depending on the magnitude of each sand‐supplying event and the interval between such events, changes in bed‐sand grain size associated with sand‐wave passage may more strongly regulate sand transport than do changes in water discharge. When sand transport is controlled more by episodic resupply of sand than by discharge, upstream dam construction may exacerbate or mitigate sand‐transport disequilibria, thus leading to complicated and difficult‐to‐predict patterns of deposition and erosion. We analyzed all historical sediment‐transport data and embarked on a 4‐year program of continuous sediment‐transport measurements to describe disequilibrium sand transport in a river network. Results indicate that sand transport in long river segments can evolve over ≥50‐year timescales following rare large sand‐supplying events. These natural changes in sand transport in distal downstream river segments can be larger than those caused by an upstream dam. Because there is no way to know a priori whether sand transport in a river has changed in response to changes in the upstream sand supply, contemporary continuous measurements of sand transport are required for accurate sand loads and budgeting. Analysis of only historical sediment‐transport measurements, as is common in the literature, may lead to incorrect conclusions with respect to current or future sediment‐transport conditions.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface↗
USGS2018

Evolving environmental and geometric controls on Columbia Glacier’s continued retreat

Geometry strongly controls the dynamic behavior of marine‐terminating (tidewater) glaciers, significantly influencing advance and retreat cycles independent of climate. Yet the recent, nearly ubiquitous retreat of tidewater glaciers suggests that changes in atmospheric and oceanic forcing may also drive dynamic change. To isolate the influence of geometry on tidewater glacier dynamics, we analyzed detailed observational time series from 2012 to 2016 for two tidewater glaciers with shared dynamic histories and environmental forcing: Columbia Glacier and its former tributary (Post Glacier) in southcentral Alaska. We find that although terminus retreat has driven decadal‐scale changes in dynamics of the Columbia‐Post system, environmental factors contribute to short‐term (i.e., seasonal) dynamic variability. In particular, analysis of force balance time series indicates that observed variations in speed result from seasonal changes to the subglacial hydrologic system and associated changes in basal drag. Variations in terminus position only drive noticeable speed change when the terminus retreats from regions of relatively high basal drag. In agreement with long‐term analyses of Columbia Glacier, we find that terminus geometry can perturb the timing of seasonal ice flow patterns. Specifically, our data support the idea that retreat of a glacier terminus into deeper water is accompanied by a shift in the primary control on frontal ablation. Although our analysis focuses on two Alaskan glaciers, our data suggest that changes in the relative importance of surface meltwater and buoyancy effects on submarine melting and/or calving may manifest as a shift in terminus change seasonality and offer a mechanism to identify frontal ablation controls.

Alaska↗
USGS2018

Atmospheric and surface climate associated with 1986–2013 wildfires in North America

We analyze climate simulations conducted with the RegCM3 regional climate model on 50‐ and 15‐km model grids to diagnose the dependence of wildfire incidence and area burned variations on monthly climate long‐term means and anomalies over North America for the period 1986–2013. We created a new wildfire database by merging the Fire Program Analysis Fire‐Occurrence Database, the National Interagency Fire Center Fire History Data, and the Canadian National Fire Database. The database includes 2,083,865 daily fire starts that burned a total of 1.25 × 10 8 ha in North America. We derive long‐term climatologies, standardized gamma indices, and composite climate anomalies of atmospheric circulation (500‐hPa height and wind) and various surface fields (e.g., solar radiation, soil moisture, vapor pressure deficit, and latent and sensible heat fluxes) to illustrate the climatology of burned area. The immediate and lagged monthly atmospheric circulation and surface climate anomalies differentiate high‐ and low‐fire years and the role of El Niño–Southern Oscillation in wildfire occurrence. Our approach demonstrates the association of the seasonal cycles of wildfire and climate and the strong role of climatic variability in modulating the seasonal cycle as a control of wildfire on monthly time scales.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences↗
USGS2018

Fire, flood, and drought: Extreme climate events alter flow paths and stream chemistry

Extreme climate events—such as hurricanes, droughts, extreme precipitation, and wildfires—have the potential to alter watershed processes and stream response. Yet due to the destructive and hazardous nature and unpredictability of such events, capturing their hydrochemical signal is challenging. A 5‐year postwildfire study of stream chemistry in the Fourmile Creek watershed, Colorado Front Range, USA, focused on high‐frequency storm sampling. During the study, the watershed was impacted by three additional extreme climate events—drought and two periods of extreme rainfall totals. These events altered concentration‐discharge relationships in ways that elucidate how hydrologic flow paths and source material availability affect stream water chemistry. Reduced infiltration after wildfire led to overland flow during thunderstorms, which conveyed ash and soil into streams. This resulted in elevated stream concentrations of constituents elevated in ash—Ca, K, Mg, alkalinity, and dissolved organic carbon—along with sediment and nitrate. Subsurface flow paths were bypassed, leading to low concentrations of Na and SiO 2 , which are bedrock derived and not elevated in ash. During drought conditions, when stream discharge was <20% of average, concentrations of sediment, dissolved organic carbon, and Ca fell below average concentrations, but SiO 2 did not. Extreme rainfall totals saturated the subsurface and led to prolonged elevated stream discharge. Concentration‐discharge relationships for bedrock‐derived constituents, such as Ca and SiO 2 , were altered in that time period, while those for dissolved organic carbon were not. Previous disturbances, including historical mining, also affect stream chemistry, and water‐quality impairment can be exacerbated by extreme climate events.

Colorado↗
USGS2018

Flooding alters plant-mediated carbon cycling independently of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations

Plant‐mediated processes determine carbon (C) cycling and storage in many ecosystems; how plant‐associated processes may be altered by climate‐induced changes in environmental drivers is therefore an essential question for understanding global C cycling. In this study, we hypothesize that environmental alterations associated with near‐term climate change can exert strong control on plant‐associated ecosystem C cycling and that investigations along an extended hydrologic gradient may give mechanistic insight into C cycling. We utilize a mesocosm approach to investigate the response of plant, soil, and gaseous C cycling to changing hydrologic regimes and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) concentrations expected by 2100 in a coastal salt marsh in Louisiana, USA. Although elevated CO 2 had no significant effects on C cycling, we demonstrate that greater average flooding depth stimulated C exchange, with higher rates of labile C decomposition, plant CO 2 assimilation, and soil C respiration. Greater average flooding depth also significantly decreased the soil C pool and marginally increased the aboveground biomass C pool, leading to net losses in total C stocks. Further, flooding depths along an extended hydrologic gradient garnered insight into decomposition mechanisms that was not apparent from other data. In C‐4 dominated salt marshes, sea‐level rise will likely overwhelm effects of elevated CO 2 with climate change. Deeper flooding associated with sea‐level rise may decrease long‐term soil C pools and quicken C exchange between soil and atmosphere, thereby threatening net C storage in salt marsh habitats. Manipulative studies will be indispensable for understanding biogeochemical cycling under future conditions.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences↗
USGS2018

Impact of pore fluid chemistry on fine-grained sediment fabric and compressibility

Fines, defined here as grains or particles, less than 75 μm in diameter, exist nearly ubiquitously in natural sediment, even those classified as coarse. Macroscopic sediment properties, such as compressibility, which relates applied effective stress to the resulting sediment deformation, depend on the fabric of fines. Unlike coarse grains, fines have sizes and masses small enough to be more strongly influenced by electrical interparticle forces than by gravity. These electrical forces acting through pore fluids are influenced by pore fluid chemistry changes. Macroscopic property dependence on pore fluid chemistry must be accounted for in sediment studies involving subsurface flow and sediment stability analyses, as well as in engineered flow situations such as groundwater pollutant remediation, hydrocarbon migration, or other energy resource extraction applications. This study demonstrates how the liquid limit‐based electrical sensitivity index can be used to predict sediment compressibility changes due to pore fluid chemistry changes. Laboratory tests of electrical sensitivity, sedimentation, and compressibility illustrate mechanisms linking microscale and macroscale processes for selected pure, end‐member fines. A specific application considered here is methane extraction via depressurization of gas hydrate‐bearing sediment, which causes a dramatic pore water salinity drop concurrent with sediment being compressed by the imposed effective stress increase.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗
USGS2018

Interseismic ground deformation and fault slip rates in the greater San Francisco Bay Area from two decades of space geodetic data

The detailed spatial variations of strain accumulation and creep on major faults in the northern San Francisco Bay Area (North Bay), which are important for seismic potential and evaluation of natural hazards, remain poorly understood. Here we combine interferometric synthetic aperture radar data from the ERS‐1/2 and Envisat satellites between 1992 and 2010 with continuous and campaign GPS data to obtain a high spatial and temporal coverage of ground deformation of the North Bay. The SAR data from both ascending and descending orbits are combined to separate horizontal and vertical components of the deformation. We jointly invert the horizontal component of the mean velocities derived from these data to infer the deep strike‐slip rates on major locked faults. We use the estimated deep rates to simulate the long‐wavelength deformation due to interseismic elastic strain accumulation along these locked faults. After removing the long‐wavelength signal from the InSAR horizontal mean velocity field, we estimate fault‐parallel surface creep rates of up to 2 mm/year along the central section of the Rodgers Creek fault and surface creep rates ranging between 2 and 4 mm/year along the Concord fault. No surface creep is geodetically resolved along the West Napa and Green Valley fault zones. We identified characteristically repeating earthquakes on the Rodgers Creek fault, the West Napa fault, the Green Valley fault, and the Concord fault. Nontectonic deformation in the Geysers geothermal field and in Late Cenozoic basins (Rohnert Park and Sonoma basins) are also observed, likely due to hydrological and sediment‐compaction processes, respectively.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2019

Thermal, deformation, and degassing remote sensing time-series (A.D. 2000-2017) at the 47 most active volcanoes in Latin America: Implications for volcanic systems

Volcanoes are hazardous to local and global populations, but only a fraction are continuously monitored by ground-based sensors. For example, in Latin America, more than 60% of Holocene volcanoes are unmonitored, meaning long-term multi-parameter datasets of volcanic activity are rare and sparse. We use satellite observations of degassing, thermal anomalies, and surface deformation spanning 17 years at 47 of the most active volcanoes in Latin America, and compare these datasets to ground-based observations archived by the Global Volcanism Program (GVP). This first comparison of multi-satellite time-series on a regional scale provides information regarding volcanic behavior during, non-, pre-, syn- and post-eruptive periods. For example, at Copahue volcano, deviations from background activity in all three types of satellite measurements were manifested months to years in advance of renewed eruptive activity in 2012. By quantifying the amount of degassing, thermal output, and deformation measured at each of these volcanoes, we test the classification of these volcanoes as open or closed volcanic systems. We find that ~28% of the volcanoes do not fall into either classification and the rest show elements of both, demonstrating a dynamic range of behavior that can change over time. Finally, we recommend how volcano monitoring could be improved through better coordination of available satellite-based capabilities and new instruments.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗
USGS2019

Heat and mass transport in a vapor-dominated hydrothermal area in Yellowstone National Park, USA: Inferences from magnetic, electrical, electromagnetic, subsurface temperature and diffuse CO2 flux measurements

Vapor‐dominated hydrothermal systems are characterized by localized and elevated heat and gas flux. In these systems, steam and gas ascend from a boiling water reservoir, steam condenses beneath a low‐permeability cap layer, and liquid water descends, driven by gravity (“heat pipe” model). We combine magnetic, electromagnetic, and geoelectrical methods and CO 2 flux and subsurface temperature measurements in the Solfatara Plateau Thermal Area in the Yellowstone Caldera to address several fundamental questions: (1) What are the structural and/or lithological controls on heat and mass transport in vapor‐dominated areas? (2) What is the geometry and size of convecting multiphase thermal plumes? (3) Are thermal plumes associated with subsurface rock alteration and demagnetization? Magnetic and electromagnetic data inversions suggest an asymmetric 50‐ to 100‐m thick basin of glacial deposits with the thickest part adjacent to the margin of a rhyolite flow. The 3‐D electrical conductivity model in the glacial basin reveals a narrow vertical conductor interpreted as a focused multiphase plume, which coincides at the ground surface with the heat and CO 2 flux maxima. The magnetic data suggest that destruction of magnetic minerals due to rock alteration associated with the hydrothermal plume occurs mainly near the ground surface. We propose a model where the buoyant multiphase plume forms in response to decompression, boiling, and phase separation of pressurized thermal groundwater that discharges from the brecciated base of a rhyolite flow into the basin of glacial deposits. Results from multiphase groundwater flow and heat transport numerical simulations corroborate the first‐order characteristics of this model.

Wyoming↗
USGS2019

The 12 November 2017 Mw 7.3 Ezgeleh–Sarpolzahab (Iran) earthquake and active tectonics of the Lurestan arc

The 12 November 2017 M w 7.3 Ezgeleh‐Sarpolzahab earthquake is the largest instrumentally recorded earthquake in the Zagros Simply Folded Belt by a factor of ∼10 in seismic moment. Exploiting local, regional, and teleseismic data and synthetic aperture radar interferometry imagery, we characterize the rupture, its aftershock sequence, background seismicity, and regional tectonics. The mainshock ruptured slowly (∼2 km/s), unilaterally southward, for ∼40 km along an oblique (dextral‐thrust) fault that dips ∼14°E beneath the northwestern Lurestan arc. Slip is confined to basement depths of ∼12–18 km, resolvably beneath the sedimentary cover which is ∼8 km thick in this area. The gentle dip angle and basement location allow for a broad slip area, explaining the large magnitude relative to earthquakes in the main Fars arc of the Zagros, where shallower, steeper faults are limited in rupture extent by weak sedimentary layers. Early aftershocks concentrate around the southern and western edges of the mainshock slip area and therefore cluster in the direction of rupture propagation, implying a contribution from dynamic triggering. A cluster of events ∼100 km to the south near Mandali (Iraq) reactivated the ∼50° dipping Zagros Foredeep Fault. The basement fault responsible for the Ezgeleh‐Sarpolzahab earthquake probably accounts for the ∼1 km elevation contrast between the Lurestan arc and the Kirkuk embayment but is distinct from sections of the Mountain Front Fault that define frontal escarpments elsewhere in the Zagros. It may be related to a seismic interface underlying the central and southern Lurestan arc, and a key concern is whether or not the more extensive regional structure is also seismogenic.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth↗
USGS2019

Three-dimensional basin and fault structure from a detailed seismic velocity model of Coachella Valley, Southern California

The Coachella Valley in the northern Salton Trough is known to produce destructive earthquakes, making it a high seismic hazard area. Knowledge of the seismic velocity structure and geometry of the sedimentary basins and fault zones is required to improve earthquake hazard estimates in this region. We simultaneously inverted first P wave travel times from the Southern California Seismic Network (39,998 local earthquakes) and explosions (251 land/sea shots) from the 2011 Salton Seismic Imaging Project to obtain a 3-D seismic velocity model. Earthquakes with focal depths ≤10 km were selected to focus on the upper crustal structure. Strong lateral velocity contrasts in the top ~3 km correlate well with the surface geology, including the low-velocity (<5 km/s) sedimentary basin and the high-velocity crystalline basement rocks outside the valley. Sediment thickness is ~4 km in the southeastern valley near the Salton Sea and decreases to <2 km at the northwestern end of the valley. Eastward thickening of sediments toward the San Andreas fault within the valley defines Coachella Valley basin asymmetry. In the Peninsular Ranges, zones of relatively high seismic velocities (~6.4 km/s) between 2 to 4 km depth may be related to Late Cretaceous mylonite rocks or older inherited basement structures. Other high-velocity domains exist in the model down to 9 km depth and help define crustal heterogeneity. We identify a potential fault zone in Lost Horse Valley unassociated with mapped faults in Southern California from the combined interpretation of surface geology, seismicity, and lateral velocity changes in the model.

California↗
USGS2018

Induced earthquake families reveal distinctive evolutionary patterns near disposal wells

The timing of events in seismic sequences can provide insights into the physical processes controlling fault slip. In southern Kansas, the rate of earthquakes rose rapidly starting in 2013 following expansion of energy production into the area, demanding the disposal of large volumes of wastewater into deep wells. Seismicity catalogs that are complete to low magnitudes can provide insights into the physical processes that induce seismicity near wastewater disposal. We develop a catalog of over 130,000 earthquakes recorded in southern Kansas from mid‐March 2014 through December 2017 by applying a matched filter algorithm to an original catalog of 5,831 template earthquakes. Detections have nearly identical waveforms to their associated template event and represent slip on nearly co‐located sections of a fault. We select template events with at least 100 associated detections and examine the characteristics of these prolific families of earthquakes. We find that families located close (<10 km) to areas with significant volumes of injected fluids have near‐Poissonian interevent times and the families remain active over longer durations. Families farther from high‐volume injection wells show strong clustering of interevent times and shorter sequence durations. We conclude that increasing pore fluid pressures from nearby disposal of large volumes of wastewater is the primary driver of these long duration episodes, with earthquake‐earthquake interactions driving sequences at greater distance from the wells.

Kansas↗
USGS2018

Quantifying uncertainty in cumulative surface slip along the Cucamonga Fault, a crustal thrust fault in southern California

Studies of historic earthquake ground surface ruptures show that displacements along strike are spatially variable. As a result, latest Quaternary slip rates developed from a spatially restricted set of cumulative displacement measurements may not accurately represent fault velocity. Here we examine the uncertainties associated with slip on the Cucamonga Fault, which is part of a network of faults that have generated damaging historical earthquakes in and around Los Angeles, California. Numerous scarps along its ~25‐km length are well expressed on alluvial fans. We make 310 measurements of vertical separation across the scarps using lidar data. We show that the dispersion of the vertical separations cannot be explained by our best estimates of analytical uncertainties alone. Additional epistemic uncertainties are required. We find that the magnitude of the required epistemic uncertainty is typically larger than analytical uncertainty by a factor of 3 and typically about 22% of the maximum vertical separation. These relationships appear to hold at several spatial scales. We examine three potential sources of epistemic uncertainty and find that none among surface age uncertainty, fault dip, and anthropogenic landscape alteration is likely sufficient to explain the overdispersion of the data, which suggests differences in cumulative strain along the strike of the fault. We calculate a range of dip‐slip rates between 0.4 and 2.6 mm/year. In light of our results, we suggest that future thrust‐fault slip‐rate studies adopt an epistemic uncertainty of 22% of the maximum value for vertical separation measurements, unless there are sufficient data to demonstrate otherwise.

California↗
USGS2019

Azimuthal seismic anisotropy of 70 Ma Pacific‐plate upper mantle

Plate formation and evolution processes are predicted to generate upper mantle seismic anisotropy and negative vertical velocity gradients in oceanic lithosphere. However, predictions for upper mantle seismic velocity structure do not fully agree with the results of seismic experiments. The strength of anisotropy observed in the upper mantle varies widely. Further, many refraction studies observe a fast direction of anisotropy rotated several degrees with respect to the paleospreading direction, suggesting that upper mantle anisotropy records processes other than 2D corner flow and plate‐driven shear near mid‐ocean ridges. We measure 6.0 ± 0.3% anisotropy at the Moho in 70 Ma lithosphere in the central Pacific with a fast direction parallel to paleospreading, consistent with mineral alignment by 2D mantle flow near a mid‐ocean ridge. We also find an increase in the strength of anisotropy with depth, with vertical velocity gradients estimated at 0.02 km/s/km in the fast direction and 0 km/s/km in the slow direction. The increase in anisotropy with depth can be explained by mechanisms for producing anisotropy other than intrinsic effects from mineral fabric, such as aligned cracks or other structures. This measurement of seismic anisotropy and gradients reflects the effects of both plate formation and evolution processes on seismic velocity structure in mature oceanic lithosphere, and can serve as a reference for future studies to investigate the processes involved in lithospheric formation and evolution.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2020

Timescales and processes of methane hydrate formation and breakdown, with application to geologic systems

Gas hydrate is an ice-like form of water and low molecular weight gas stable at temperatures of roughly -10ºC to 25ºC and pressures of ~3 to 30 MPa in geologic systems. Natural gas hydrates sequester an estimated one-sixth of Earth’s methane and are found primarily in deepwater marine sediments on continental margins, but also in permafrost areas and under continental ice sheets. When gas hydrate is removed from its stability field, its breakdown has implications for the global carbon cycle, ocean chemistry, marine geohazards, and interactions between the geosphere and the ocean-atmosphere system. Gas hydrate breakdown can also be artificially driven as a component of studies assessing the resource potential of these deposits. Furthermore, geologic processes and perturbations to the ocean-atmosphere system (e.g., warming temperatures) can cause not only dissociation, but also more widespread dissolution of hydrate or even formation of new hydrate in reservoirs. Linkages between gas hydrate and disparate aspects of Earth’s near-surface physical, chemical, and biological systems render an assessment of the rates and processes affecting the persistence of gas hydrate an appropriate Centennial Grand Challenge. This paper reviews the thermodynamic controls on methane hydrate stability and then describes the relative importance of kinetic, mass transfer, and heat transfer processes in the formation and breakdown (dissociation and dissolution) of gas hydrate. Results from numerical modeling, laboratory, and some fields studies are used to summarize the rates of hydrate formation and breakdown, followed by an extensive treatment of hydrate dynamics in marine and cryospheric gas hydrate systems.

Journal of Geophysical Research-Solid Earth↗
USGS2018

Characteristic earthquake magnitude frequency distributions on faults calculated from consensus data in California

An estimate of the expected earthquake rate at all possible magnitudes is needed for seismic hazard forecasts. Regional earthquake magnitude frequency distributions obey a negative exponential law (Gutenberg‐Richter), but it's unclear if individual faults do. We add three new methods to calculate long‐term California earthquake rupture rates to the existing Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) efforts to assess method and parameter dependence on magnitude frequency results for individual faults. All solutions show strongly characteristic magnitude‐frequency distributions on the San Andreas and other faults, with higher rates of large earthquakes than would be expected from a Gutenberg‐Richter distribution. This is a necessary outcome that results from fitting high fault slip rates under the overall statewide earthquake rate budget. We find that input data choices can affect the nucleation magnitude‐frequency distribution shape for the San Andreas fault; solutions are closer to a Gutenberg‐Richter distribution if the maximum magnitude allowed for earthquakes that occur away from mapped faults (background events) is raised above the consensus threshold of M =7.6, if the moment rate for background events is reduced, or if the overall maximum magnitude is reduced from M =8.5. We also find that participation magnitude‐frequency distribution shapes can be strongly affected by slip‐rate discontinuities along faults that may be artifacts related to segment boundaries.

California↗