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At least 1,279 records · Page 71Linked to original sources

Debris flows and floods in southeastern Arizona from extreme precipitation in July 2006 — Magnitude, frequency, and sediment delivery

From July 31 to August 1, 2006, an unusual set of atmospheric conditions aligned to produce record floods and an unprecedented number of slope failures and debris flows in southeastern Arizona. During the week leading up to the event, an upper-level low-pressure system centered over New Mexico generated widespread and locally heavy rainfall in southeastern Arizona, culminating in a series of strong, mesoscale convective systems that affected the region in the early morning hours of July 31 and August 1. Rainfall from July 27 through 30 provided sufficient antecedent moisture that the storms of July 31 through August 1 resulted in record streamflow flooding in northeastern Pima County and eastern Pinal County. The rainfall caused at least 623 slope failures in four mountain ranges, including more than 30 near Bowie Mountain in the northern Chiracahua Mountains, and 113 at the southern end of the Huachuca Mountains within and adjacent to Coronado National Memorial. In the Santa Catalina Mountains north of Tucson, 435 slope failures spawned debris flows on July 31 that, together with flood runoff, damaged structures and roads, affecting infrastructure within Tucson’s urban boundary. Heavy, localized rainfall in the Galiuro Mountains on August 1, 2006, resulted in at least 45 slope failures and an unknown number of debris flows in Aravaipa Canyon. In the southern Santa Catalina Mountains, the maximum 3-day precipitation measured at a climate station for July 29-31 was 12.04 in., which has a 1,200-year recurrence interval. Other rainfall totals from late July to August 1 in southeastern Arizona also exceeded 1,000-year recurrence intervals. The storms produced floods of record along six watercourses, and these floods had recurrence intervals of 100-500 years. Repeat photography suggests that the spate of slope failures was historically unprecedented, and geologic mapping and cosmogenic dating of ancient debris-flow deposits indicate that debris flows reaching alluvial fans in the Tucson basin are extremely rare events. Although recent watershed changes—particularly the impacts of recent wildland fires—may be important locally, the record number of slope failures and debris flows were related predominantly to extreme precipitation, not other factors such as fire history. The large number of slope failures and debris flows in an area with few such occurrences historically underscores the rarity of this type of meteorological event in southeastern Arizona. Most slope failures appeared to be shallow-seated slope failures of colluvium on steep slopes that caused deep scour of chutes and substantial aggradation of channels downstream. In the southern Santa Catalina Mountains, we estimate that 1.5 million tons of sediment were released from slope failures into the channels of ten drainage basins. Thirty-six percent of this sediment (527,000 tons) is gravel-sized or smaller and is likely to be transported by streamflow out of the mountain drainages and into the drainage network of metropolitan Tucson. This sediment poses a potential flood hazard by reducing conveyance in fixed-section flood control structures along Rillito Creek and its major tributaries, although our estimates suggest that deposition may be small if it is distributed widely along the channel, which is expected. Using the stochastic debris-flow model LAHARZ, we simulated debris-flow transport from slope failures to the apices of alluvial fans flanking the southern Santa Catalina Mountains. Despite considerable uncertainty in applying coefficients developed from worldwide observations to conditions in the southern Santa Catalina Mountains, we predicted the approximate area of depositional zones for several 2006 debris flows, particularly for Soldier Canyon. Better results could be achieved in some canyons if sediment budgets could be developed to account for alternating transport and deposition zones in channels with abrupt expansions and contractions, such as Rattlesnake Canyon.

Arizona↗

Oil shale resources of the Uinta Basin, Utah and Colorado

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently completed a comprehensive assessment of in-place oil in oil shales of the Eocene Green River Formation of the Uinta Basin of eastern Utah and western Colorado. The oil shale interval was subdivided into eighteen roughly time-stratigraphic intervals, and each interval was assessed for variations in gallons per ton, barrels per acre, and total barrels in each township. The Radial Basis Function extrapolation method was used to generate isopach and isoresource maps, and to calculate resources. The total inplace resource for the Uinta Basin is estimated at 1.32 trillion barrels. This is only slightly lower than the estimated 1.53 trillion barrels for the adjacent Piceance Basin, Colorado, to the east, which is thought to be the richest oil shale deposit in the world. However, the area underlain by oil shale in the Uinta Basin is much larger than that of the Piceance Basin, and the average gallons per ton and barrels per acre values for each of the assessed oil shale zones are significantly lower in the depocenter in the Uinta Basin when compared to the Piceance Basin. These relations indicate that the oil shale resources in the Uinta Basin are of lower grade and are more dispersed than the oil shale resources of the Piceance Basin.

Data Series↗

usSEABED: Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean (Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands) offshore surficial sediment data release

Over the past 50 years there has been an explosion in scientific interest, research effort and information gathered on the geologic sedimentary character of the United States continental margin. Data and information from thousands of publications have greatly increased our scientific understanding of the geologic origins of the shelf surface but rarely have those data been combined and integrated. This publication is the first release of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean (Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands) coastal and offshore data from the usSEABED database. The report contains a compilation of published and previously unpublished sediment texture and other geologic data about the sea floor from diverse sources. usSEABED is an innovative database system developed to bring assorted data together in a unified database. The dbSEABED system is used to process the data. Examples of maps displaying attributes such as grain size and sediment color are included. This database contains information that is a scientific foundation for the USGS Marine Aggregate Resources and Processes Assessment and Benthic Habitats projects, and will be useful to the marine science community for other studies of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean continental margins. This publication is divided into ten sections: Home, Introduction, Content, usSEABED (data), dbSEABED (processing), Data Catalog, References, Contacts, Acknowledgments and Frequently Asked Questions. Use the navigation bar on the left to navigate to specific sections of this report. Underlined topics throughout the publication are links to more information. Links to specific and detailed information on processing and those to pages outside this report will open in a new browser window.

Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico↗

Archive of digital boomer subbottom data collected during USGS cruises 99FGS01 and 99FGS02 offshore southeast and southwest Florida, July and November, 1999

In July (19 - 26) and November (17 - 18) of 1999, the USGS, in cooperation with the Florida Geological Survey (FGS), conducted two geophysical surveys in: (1) the Atlantic Ocean offshore of Florida's east coast from Orchid to Jupiter, FL, and (2) the Gulf of Mexico offshore of Venice, FL. This report serves as an archive of unprocessed digital boomer subbottom data, trackline maps, navigation files, GIS files, Field Activity Collection System (FACS) logs, and formal Federal Geographic Data Committee (FGDC) metadata. Filtered and gained (showing a relative increase in signal amplitude) digital images of the subbottom profiles are also provided. The USGS St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center (SPCMSC) assigns a unique identifier to each cruise or field activity. For example, identifiers 99FGS01 and 99FGS02 refer to field data collected in 1999 for cooperative work with the FGS. The numbers 01 and 02 indicate the data were collected during the first and second field activities for that project in that calendar year. Refer to http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/infobank/programs/html/definition/activity.html for a detailed description of the method used to assign the field activity identification (ID).

Florida↗

Probability of Elevated Nitrate Concentrations in Groundwater in the Eagle River Watershed Valley-Fill Aquifer, Eagle County, North-Central Colorado, 2006-2007

This raster data set delineates the predicted probability of elevated nitrate concentrations in groundwater in the Eagle River watershed valley-fill aquifer, Eagle County, North-Central Colorado, 2006-2007. This data set was developed by a cooperative project between the U.S. Geological Survey, Eagle County, the Eagle River Water and Sanitation District, the Town of Eagle, the Town of Gypsum, and the Upper Eagle Regional Water Authority. This project was designed to evaluate potential land-development effects on groundwater and surface-water resources so that informed land-use and water management decisions can be made. This groundwater probability map and its associated probability maps was developed as follows: (1) A point data set of wells with groundwater quality and groundwater age data was overlaid with thematic layers of anthropogenic (related to human activities) and hydrogeologic data by using a geographic information system to assign each well values for depth to groundwater, distance to major streams and canals, distance to gypsum beds, precipitation, soils, and well depth. These data then were downloaded to a statistical software package for analysis by logistic regression. (2) Statistical models predicting the probability of elevated nitrate concentrations, the probability of unmixed young water (using chlorofluorocarbon-11 concentrations and tritium activities), and the probability of elevated volatile organic compound concentrations were developed using logistic regression techniques. (3) The statistical models were entered into a GIS and the probability map was constructed.

Data Series↗

Probability of Unmixed Young Groundwater (defined using chlorofluorocarbon-11 concentrations and tritium activities) in the Eagle River Watershed Valley-Fill Aquifer, Eagle County, North-Central Colorado, 2006-2007

This raster data set delineates the predicted probability of unmixed young groundwater (defined using chlorofluorocarbon-11 concentrations and tritium activities) in groundwater in the Eagle River watershed valley-fill aquifer, Eagle County, North-Central Colorado, 2006-2007. This data set was developed by a cooperative project between the U.S. Geological Survey, Eagle County, the Eagle River Water and Sanitation District, the Town of Eagle, the Town of Gypsum, and the Upper Eagle Regional Water Authority. This project was designed to evaluate potential land-development effects on groundwater and surface-water resources so that informed land-use and water management decisions can be made. This groundwater probability map and its associated probability maps were developed as follows: (1) A point data set of wells with groundwater quality and groundwater age data was overlaid with thematic layers of anthropogenic (related to human activities) and hydrogeologic data by using a geographic information system to assign each well values for depth to groundwater, distance to major streams and canals, distance to gypsum beds, precipitation, soils, and well depth. These data then were downloaded to a statistical software package for analysis by logistic regression. (2) Statistical models predicting the probability of elevated nitrate concentrations, the probability of unmixed young water (using chlorofluorocarbon-11 concentrations and tritium activities), and the probability of elevated volatile organic compound concentrations were developed using logistic regression techniques. (3) The statistical models were entered into a GIS and the probability map was constructed.

Data Series↗

Probability of Elevated Volatile Organic Compound (VOC) Concentrations in Groundwater in the Eagle River Watershed Valley-Fill Aquifer, Eagle County, North-Central Colorado, 2006-2007

This raster data set delineates the predicted probability of elevated volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations in groundwater in the Eagle River watershed valley-fill aquifer, Eagle County, North-Central Colorado, 2006-2007. This data set was developed by a cooperative project between the U.S. Geological Survey, Eagle County, the Eagle River Water and Sanitation District, the Town of Eagle, the Town of Gypsum, and the Upper Eagle Regional Water Authority. This project was designed to evaluate potential land-development effects on groundwater and surface-water resources so that informed land-use and water management decisions can be made. This groundwater probability map and its associated probability maps was developed as follows: (1) A point data set of wells with groundwater quality and groundwater age data was overlaid with thematic layers of anthropogenic (related to human activities) and hydrogeologic data by using a geographic information system to assign each well values for depth to groundwater, distance to major streams and canals, distance to gypsum beds, precipitation, soils, and well depth. These data then were downloaded to a statistical software package for analysis by logistic regression. (2) Statistical models predicting the probability of elevated nitrate concentrations, the probability of unmixed young water (using chlorofluorocarbon-11 concentrations and tritium activities), and the probability of elevated volatile organic compound concentrations were developed using logistic regression techniques. (3) The statistical models were entered into a GIS and the probability map was constructed.

Data Series↗

Validation of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Land Change Monitoring, Assessment and Projection (LCMAP) collection 1.0 annual land cover products 1985–2017

The U.S. Geological Survey Land Change Monitoring, Assessment and Projection (USGS LCMAP) has released a suite of annual land cover and land cover change products for the conterminous United States (CONUS). The accuracy of these products was assessed using an independently collected land cover reference sample dataset produced by analysts interpreting Landsat data, high-resolution aerial photographs, and other ancillary data. The reference sample of nearly 25,000 pixels and the accompanying 33-year time series of annual land cover reference labels allowed for a comprehensive assessment of accuracy of the LCMAP land cover and land cover change products. Overall accuracy (± standard error) for the per-pixel assessment across all years for the eight land cover classes was 82.5% (±0.2%). Overall accuracy was consistent year-to-year within a range of 1.5% but varied regionally with lower accuracy in the eastern United States. User’s accuracy (UA) and producer’s accuracy (PA) for CONUS ranged from the higher accuracies of Water (UA=96%, PA=93%) and Tree Cover (UA=90%, PA=83%) to the lower accuracies of Wetland (UA=69%, PA=74%) and Barren (UA=43%, PA=57%). For a binary change / no change classification, UA of change was 13% (±0.5%) and PA was 16% (±0.6%) for CONUS when agreement was defined as a match by the exact year of change. UA and PA improved to 28% and 34% when agreement was defined as the change being detected by the map and reference data within a ±2-year window. Change accuracy was higher in the eastern United States compared to the western US. UA was 49% (±0.3) and PA was 54% (±0.3) for the footprint of change (defined as the area experiencing at least one land cover change from 1985–2017). For class-specific loss and gain when agreement was defined as an exact year match, UA and PA were generally below 30%, with Tree Cover loss being the most accurately mapped change (UA=25%, PA=31%). These accuracy results provide users with information to assess the suitability of LCMAP data and information to guide future research for improving LCMAP products, particularly focusing on the challenges of accurately mapping annual land cover change.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗

Archive of bathymetry and backscatter data collected in 2014 nearshore Breton and Gosier Islands, Breton National Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana

As part of the Barrier Island Monitoring Project, scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center conducted nearshore geophysical surveys off Breton and Gosier Islands, Louisiana, in July and August of 2014. To assist the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) with restoration planning efforts, the USGS was tasked with answering fundamental questions about the physical environment of the southern Chandeleur Islands, including the geology, morphology, and oceanography. Baseline data needed to answer these questions were either insufficient or missing. The USGS conducted a comprehensive geologic investigation in the summer of 2014, collecting geophysical and sedimentological data. Breton Island, located at the southern end of the Chandeleur Island chain in southeastern Louisiana, was recognized as a natural, globally significant nesting sanctuary for several bird species and was established as the Breton National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) in 1904. The areal extent of Breton Island has diminished 90 percent since 1920. Land loss is attributed to ongoing relative sea-level rise, diminished sediment supply, and storm impacts. The bird population on Breton Island has also declined over the years, most notably after Hurricane George in 1998 and after Hurricane Katrina in 2015; the latter completely submerged the island. Despite decreasing habitable acreage, migratory seabirds continue to return and nest on Breton Island. To prevent the island from being submerged in the future, and to protect, stabilize, and provide more nesting and foraging areas for the bird population, the USFWS proposed a restoration effort to rebuild Breton Island to its pre-Katrina footprint. This data series serves as an archive of processed interferometric swath and single-beam bathymetry data, and side-scan sonar data, collected in the nearshore of Breton and Gosier Islands, NWR, Louisiana. The data were collected during two USGS cruises (USGS Field Activity Numbers 2014-314-FA and 2014-317-FA) in July and August 2014. Geographic information system data products include a 100-meter-cell-size interpolated bathymetry grid, trackline maps, and point data files. Additional files include error analysis maps, Field Activity Collection System logs, and formal Federal Geographic Data Committee metadata. NOTE: These data are scientific in nature and are not to be used for navigation. Any use of trade names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.

Louisiana↗

The geology and mineral deposits of part of the western half of the Hailey 1 degree x 2 degrees quadrangle, Idaho

Rocks in the western half of the Hailey 1°x2° quadrangle of south-central Idaho include various units of the Atlanta lobe of the Idaho batholith (biotite granodiorite to two-mica granite) of Cretaceous age and plutons and dikes of Tertiary (Eocene to Miocene) age that intrude the batholith. Eocene plutonic rocks consist of a bimodal suite of anorogenic granite and tonalite-granodiorite and hypabyssal rhyolite and rhyodacite dikes. Rocks of the Eocene Challis Volcanics are scarce in the map area but are widespread to the east. Rhyolite ash flows of the Miocene Idavada Volcanics and basalt of the Snake River Plain crop out in the southern part of the area. Lacustrine rocks of probable Eocene to Holocene age are present in the vicinity of Anderson Ranch Reservoir. Quaternary basalts and gravels are widespread on the South Fork of the Boise River, and alluvial deposits are common along active drainages. Metasedimentary rocks of unknown age crop out on House Mountain, Chimney Peak, and on the ridges east of Anderson Ranch Reservoir. Older structures in the Idaho batholith include a major fault beneath House Mountain that may be a decollement for one of the large thrust sheets in eastern Idaho or part of an extensional core complex. The southern part of the Atlanta lobe of the Idaho batholith is cut by northeast-striking faults (parallel with the Trans-Challis fault system) that are related to Eocene extension and by northwest-oriented faults that formed during basin and range extension in the Miocene. The basin and range faults have prominent scarps typical of basin and range topography. The combination of northeast and northwest faults has broken the batholith into a series of rhomboid blocks. Some of these northeast and northwest faults are older structures that were reactivated in the Eocene or Miocene, as indicated by Ar 40 /Ar 39 dates on mineralized rock contained in some of the structures. The Idaho batholith and associated rocks in the map area host several hundred mines and prospects in 18 mining districts. The deposits range in age from Cretaceous to Eocene, and many were developed for precious metals. Most of the deposits are in quartz veins in shear zones in granitic rocks of the batholith. Several districts were actively being explored for low-grade, bulk-minable, precious-metal deposits in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

Idaho↗

Subaqueous geology and a filling model for Crater Lake, Oregon

Results of a detailed bathymetric survey of Crater Lake conducted in 2000, combined with previous results of submersible and dredge sampling, form the basis for a geologic map of the lake floor and a model for the filling of Crater Lake with water. The most prominent landforms beneath the surface of Crater Lake are andesite volcanoes that were active as the lake was filling with water, following caldera collapse during the climactic eruption of Mount Mazama 7700 cal. yr B.P. The Wizard Island volcano is the largest and probably was active longest, ceasing eruptions when the lake was 80 m lower than present. East of Wizard Island is the central platform volcano and related lava flow fields on the caldera floor. Merriam Cone is a symmetrical andesitic volcano that apparently was constructed subaqueously during the same period as the Wizard Island and central platform volcanoes. The youngest postcaldera volcanic feature is a small rhyodacite dome on the east flank of the Wizard Island edifice that dates from 4800 cal. yr B.P. The bathymetry also yields information on bedrock outcrops and talus/debris slopes of the caldera walls. Gravity flows transport sediment from wall sources to the deep basins of the lake. Several debris-avalanche deposits, containing blocks up to 280 m long, are present on the caldera floor and occur below major embayments in the caldera walls. Geothermal phenomena on the lake floor are bacterial mats, pools of solute-rich warm water, and fossil subaqueous hot spring deposits. Lake level is maintained by a balance between precipitation and inflow versus evaporation and leakage. High-resolution bathymetry reveals a series of up to nine drowned beaches in the upper 30 m of the lake that we propose reflect stillstands subsequent to filling of Crater Lake. A prominent wave-cut platform between 4 m depth and present lake level that commonly is up to 40 m wide suggests that the surface of Crater Lake has been at this elevation for a very long time. Lake level apparently is limited by leakage through a permeable layer in the northeast caldera wall. The deepest drowned beach approximately corresponds to the base of the permeable layer. Among a group of lake filling models, our preferred one is constrained by the drowned beaches, the permeable layer in the caldera wall, and paleoclimatic data. We used a precipitation rate 70% of modern as a limiting case. Satisfactory models require leakage to be proportional to elevation and the best fit model has a linear combination of 45% leakage proportional to elevation and 55% of leakage proportional to elevation above the base of the permeable layer. At modern precipitation rates, the lake would have taken 420 yr to fill, or a maximum of 740 yr if precipitation was 70% of the modern value. The filling model provides a chronology for prehistoric passage zones on postcaldera volcanoes that ceased erupting before the lake was filled.

Hydrobiologia↗

Archive of digital Boomer seismic reflection data collected during USGS Cruise 94CCT02, south-central South Carolina coastal region, August 1994

In August of 1994, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Coastal Carolina University, conducted marine geophysical surveys in numerous water bodies adjacent to the south-central South Carolina coastal region. Data were collected aboard the MS Coastal in the Ashley, North Edisto, Wadmalaw, Dawho, South Edisto, and Ashepoo Rivers; the Wappoo, North, Steamboat, Bohicket, and Toogoodoo Creeks; Charleston Harbor; Wadmalaw Sound; Fenwick Cut; and the Atlantic Ocean from offshore Isle of Palms to Kiawah Island. This report serves as an archive of unprocessed digital boomer seismic reflection data, trackline maps, navigation files, GIS information, observers' logbooks, Field Activity Collection System (FACS) logs, and FGDC metadata. Filtered and gained digital images of the seismic profiles are also provided. The archived trace data are in standard Society of Exploration Geophysicists (SEG) SEG-Y format (Barry and others, 1975) and may be downloaded and processed with commercial or public domain software such as Seismic Unix (SU). Example SU processing scripts and USGS software for viewing the SEG-Y files (Zihlman, 1992) are also provided.

Data Series↗

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2018 annual report

The Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) was established in 2007 as a collaborative interagency partnership to develop and implement science-based conservation actions. During the past 11 years, partners from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), State and Federal land management agencies, universities, and the public have collaborated to implement a long-term (more than 10 years) science-based program that assesses and enhances the quality and quantity of wildlife habitats in the southwest Wyoming region while facilitating responsible development. The USGS WLCI Science Team completes scientific research and develops tools that inform and support WLCI partner planning, decision making, and on-the-ground management actions. In fiscal year 2018, the USGS initiated 3 new projects and continued efforts on 21 ongoing science and web-development projects. The first new project was initiated to support Secretarial Order 3362 which calls on the USGS to assist Western States in mapping big-game migration corridors and developing new mapping tools. During 2018, the USGS hosted a workshop in Laramie, Wyoming, which included more than 70 State and Federal wildlife experts from Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, and Wyoming. Most of the mapping and migration tool curricula used in the workshop were derived from prior WLCI studies and mapping efforts of big-game migration movement in habitats undergoing large-scale energy development. The second new project was in response for WLCI partners to better understand sedimentation and hydrogeomorphic processes in a cold-desert headwater and the third new project was designed to improve our approach for people to access, manage, and analyze WLCI data and WLCI resource information. The USGS published 18 products (including peer-reviewed journal articles, USGS series publications, and data releases) and provided more than a dozen professional oral and poster presentations at scientific meetings and numerous informal presentations to WLCI partners at meetings and workshops. This report summarizes the objectives and status of each project and highlights the USGS 2018 accomplishments and products.

Wyoming↗

Digital surfaces and hydrogeologic data for the Floridan aquifer system in Florida and in parts of Georgia, Alabama, and South Carolina

A digital dataset for the Floridan aquifer system in Florida and in parts of Georgia, Alabama, and South Carolina was developed from selected reports published as part of the Regional Aquifer-System Analysis (RASA) Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in the 1980s. These reports contain maps and data depicting the extent and elevation of both time-stratigraphic and hydrogeologic units of which the aquifer system is composed, as well as data on hydrology, meteorology, and aquifer properties. The three primary reports used for this dataset compilation were USGS Professional Paper 1403-B (Miller, 1986), Professional Paper 1403-C (Bush and Johnston, 1988), and USGS Open-File Report 88-86 (Miller, 1988). Paper maps from Professional Papers 1403-B and 1403-C were scanned and georeferenced to the North American Datum of 1927 (NAD27) using the Lambert Conformal Conic projection (standard parallels 33 and 45 degrees, central longitude -96 degrees, central latitude 39 degrees). Once georeferenced, tracing of pertinent line features contained in each image (for example, contours and faults) was facilitated by specialized software using algorithms that automated much of the process. Resulting digital line features were then processed using standard geographic information system (GIS) software to remove artifacts from the digitization process and to verify and update attribute tables. The digitization process for polygonal features (for example, outcrop areas and unit extents) was completed by hand using GIS software.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina↗

Peak streamflow trends in Montana and northern Wyoming and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

Frequency analysis on annual peak streamflow (hereinafter, peak flow) is essential to water-resources management applications, including critical structure design (for example, bridges and culverts) and floodplain mapping. Nonstationarity is a statistical property of a peak-flow series such that the distributional properties (the mean, variance, or skew) change either gradually (monotonic trend) or abruptly (shift, step change or change point) through time. Not incorporating or accounting for observed nonstationarity into peak-flow frequency analysis might result in a poor representation of the true probability of large floods and thus misrepresent the actual flood risks to life and property. This report summarizes how hydroclimatic variability might affect the temporal and spatial distributions of peak-flow data in the State of Montana (and northern Wyoming) and is part of a larger study to document peak-flow nonstationarity and hydroclimatic changes across a nine-State region consisting of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. A wide range of analyses and statistical approaches are applied to document the primary mechanisms controlling floods and characterize temporal changes in hydroclimatic variables and peak flows. This study was completed in cooperation with the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation. The purpose of this report is to characterize temporal and spatial patterns of nonstationarity in peak flows and hydroclimatology in Montana and northern Wyoming. In this evaluation, peak-flow, daily streamflow, and model-simulated gridded climatic data were examined for monotonic trends, change points, and other statistical properties that might indicate changing climatic and environmental conditions. This report includes background information on the study area, the history of U.S. Geological Survey peak-flow data collection and frequency analysis in Montana, and the review of research relating to hydroclimatic variability and change in Montana. This study might help provide a framework for addressing potential nonstationarity issues in peak-flow frequency updates that commonly are completed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with other agencies throughout the Nation. The analytical structure of this study includes analyses of monotonic trends and change points in numerous hydroclimatic variables in assigned 30-, 50-, 75-, and 100-year analysis periods. For Montana and part of Wyoming, the 30-, 50-, 75, and 100-year analyses included 157, 70, 48, and 12 streamgages, respectively. For those streamgages, nonstationarities were analyzed in the following variables: (1) climatic variables, including annual and seasonal (winter, spring, summer, and fall) temperature and precipitation; (2) daily streamflow variables, including the annual center of volume duration, annual center of volume median, and peaks over threshold with a mean of four events per year; and (3) annual peak-flow variables, including peak-flow timing and magnitude. A likelihood approach was used to express statistical confidence and assign the nonstationarity results as likely upward or downward (highest statistical confidence), somewhat likely upward or downward (less statistical confidence), or about as likely as not (little statistical confidence; hereinafter, neutral). For the nonstationarity analyses of the climatic, daily streamflow, and peak-flow variables, the results are presented in detail and discussed with respect to statewide patterns and geographic variability. For each of the 30-, 50-, and 75-year analyses, peak-flow change-point and monotonic trend analyses were compiled for streamgages classified with likely downward or likely upward trends. For those streamgages, the associated basin characteristics and nonstationarity results for peak-flow timing, daily streamflow, and climatic variables were investigated and statistically compared to discern associations among other variables that might contribute to the peak-flow nonstationarity results. The 50- and 75-year peak-flow nonstationarities identified in this study are mostly downward, in association with mostly upward temperature and potential evapotranspiration:precipitation monotonic trends. For the 50-, 75-, and 100-year analyses, the peak-flow change points are predominantly downward and are concentrated in the 1970s and 1980s, which indicates general consistency among the longer trend periods. These findings are in association with substantial research documenting globally rising temperature and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations that might be largely attributed to anthropogenic activities. Anthropogenic effects might represent long-term (on the order of several decades to more than a century) climate changes that might happen within highly variable natural climate fluctuations. Several paleo studies in the north-central United States have indicated that hydroclimatic extremes (that is, low- and high-streamflow conditions) before European settlement have been outside of extremes since the 1900s. Depending on the interactions of anthropogenic effects and natural climate variability, extreme high-streamflow conditions might occur in the future, even in the presence of long-term downward peak-flow trends.

Montana, Wyoming↗

Temperature logging of groundwater in bedrock wells for geothermal gradient characterization in New Hampshire, 2012

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Hampshire Geological Survey, measured the fluid temperature of groundwater in deep bedrock wells in the State of New Hampshire in order to characterize geothermal gradients in bedrock. All wells selected for the study had low water yields, which correspond to low groundwater flow from fractures. This reduced the potential for flow-induced temperature changes that would mask the natural geothermal gradient in the bedrock. All the wells included in this study were privately owned, and permission to use the wells was obtained from homeowners before logging. Maximum groundwater temperatures at the bottom of the logs were between 11.7 and 17.3 degrees Celsius. Geothermal gradients were generally higher than typically reported for other water wells in the United States. Some of the high gradients were associated with high natural gamma emissions. Groundwater flow was discernible in 5 of the 10 wells studied but only obscured the portion of the geothermal gradient signal where groundwater actually flowed through the well. Temperature gradients varied by mapped bedrock type but can also vary by differences in mineralogy or rock type within the wells.

New Hampshire↗

Total Petroleum Systems and Geologic Assessment of Oil and Gas Resources in the Powder River Basin Province, Wyoming and Montana

The U.S. Geological Survey completed an assessment of the undiscovered oil and gas potential of the Powder River Basin in 2006. The assessment of undiscovered oil and gas used the total petroleum system concept, which includes mapping the distribution of potential source rocks and known petroleum accumulations and determining the timing of petroleum generation and migration. Geologically based, it focuses on source and reservoir rock stratigraphy, timing of tectonic events and the configuration of resulting structures, formation of traps and seals, and burial history modeling. The total petroleum system is subdivided into assessment units based on similar geologic characteristics and accumulation and petroleum type. In chapter 1 of this report, five total petroleum systems, eight conventional assessment units, and three continuous assessment units were defined and the undiscovered oil and gas resources within each assessment unit quantitatively estimated. Chapter 2 describes data used in support of the process being applied by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Oil and Gas Assessment (NOGA) project. Digital tabular data used in this report and archival data that permit the user to perform further analyses are available elsewhere on this CD-ROM. Computers and software may import the data without transcription from the Portable Document Format files (.pdf files) of the text by the reader. Because of the number and variety of platforms and software available, graphical images are provided as .pdf files and tabular data are provided in a raw form as tab-delimited text files (.tab files).

Data Series↗

The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator: A decision-support tool to assess water availability at ungaged stream locations in Massachusetts

Federal, State and local water-resource managers require a variety of data and modeling tools to better understand water resources. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, has developed a statewide, interactive decision-support tool to meet this need. The decision-support tool, referred to as the Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator (MA SYE) provides screening-level estimates of the sustainable yield of a basin, defined as the difference between the unregulated streamflow and some user-specified quantity of water that must remain in the stream to support such functions as recreational activities or aquatic habitat. The MA SYE tool was designed, in part, because the quantity of surface water available in a basin is a time-varying quantity subject to competing demands for water. To compute sustainable yield, the MA SYE tool estimates a daily time series of unregulated, daily mean streamflow for a 44-year period of record spanning October 1, 1960, through September 30, 2004. Selected streamflow quantiles from an unregulated, daily flow-duration curve are estimated by solving six regression equations that are a function of physical and climate basin characteristics at an ungaged site on a stream of interest. Streamflow is then interpolated between the estimated quantiles to obtain a continuous daily flow-duration curve. A time series of unregulated daily streamflow subsequently is created by transferring the timing of the daily streamflow at a reference streamgage to the ungaged site by equating exceedence probabilities of contemporaneous flow at the two locations. One of 66 reference streamgages is selected by kriging, a geostatistical method, which is used to map the spatial relation among correlations between the time series of the logarithm of daily streamflows at each reference streamgage and the ungaged site. Estimated unregulated, daily mean streamflows show good agreement with observed unregulated, daily mean streamflow at 18 streamgages located across southern New England. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency goodness-of-fit values are between 0.69 and 0.98, and percent root-mean-square-error values are between 19 and 283 percent. The MA SYE tool provides an estimate of streamflow adjusted for current (2000-04) water withdrawals and discharges using a spatially referenced database of permitted groundwater and surface-water withdrawal and discharge volumes. For a user-selected basin, the database is queried to obtain the locations of water withdrawal or discharge volumes within the basin. Groundwater and surface-water withdrawals and discharges are subtracted and added, respectively, from the unregulated, daily streamflow at an ungaged site to obtain a streamflow time series that includes the effects of these withdrawals and discharges. Users also have the option of applying an analytical solution to the time-varying, groundwater withdrawal and discharge volumes that take into account the effects of the aquifer properties on the timing and magnitude of streamflow alteration. For the MA SYE tool, it is assumed that groundwater and surface-water divides are coincident. For areas of southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod where this assumption is known to be violated, groundwater-flow models are used to estimate average monthly streamflows at fixed locations. There are several limitations to the quality and quantity of the spatially referenced database of groundwater and surface-water withdrawals and discharges. The adjusted streamflow values do not account for the effects on streamflow of climate change, septic-system discharge, impervious area, non-public water-supply withdrawals less than 100,000 gallons per day, and impounded surface-water bodies.

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