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USGS2016

Characterization and relation of precipitation, streamflow, and water-quality data at the U.S. Army Garrison Fort Carson and Piñon Canyon Maneuver Site, Colorado, water years 2013–14

To evaluate the influence of military training activities on streamflow and water quality, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of the Army, began a hydrologic data collection network on the U.S. Army Garrison Fort Carson in 1978 and on the Piñon Canyon Maneuver Site in 1983. This report is a summary and characterization of the precipitation, streamflow, and water-quality data collected at 43 sites between October 1, 2012, and September 30, 2014 (water years 2013 and 2014). Variations in the frequency of daily precipitation, seasonal distribution, and seasonal and annual precipitation at 5 stations at the U.S. Army Garrison Fort Carson and 18 stations at or near the Piñon Canyon Maneuver Site were evaluated. Isohyetal diagrams indicated a general pattern of increase in total annual precipitation from east to west at the U.S. Army Garrison Fort Carson and the Piñon Canyon Maneuver Site. Between about 54 and 79 percent of daily precipitation was 0.1 inch or less in magnitude. Precipitation events were larger and more frequent between July and September. Daily streamflow data from 16 sites were used to evaluate temporal and spatial variations in streamflow for the water years 2013 and 2014. At all sites, median daily mean streamflow for the 2-year period ranged from 0.0 to 9.60 cubic feet per second. Daily mean streamflow hydrographs are included in this report. Five sites on the Piñon Canyon Maneuver Site were monitored for peak stage using crest-stage gages. At the Piñon Canyon Maneuver Site, five sites had a stage recorder and precipitation gage, providing a paired streamflow-precipitation dataset. There was a statistically significant correlation between precipitation and streamflow based on Spearman’s rho correlation (rho values ranged from 0.17 to 0.35). Suspended-sediment samples were collected in April through October for water years 2013–14 at one site at the U.S. Army Garrison Fort Carson and five sites at the Piñon Canyon Maneuver Site. Suspended-sediment-transport curves were used to illustrate the relation between streamflow and suspended-sediment concentration. All these sediment-transport curves showed a streamflow dependent suspended-sediment concentration relation except for the U.S. Geological Survey station Bent Canyon Creek at mouth near Timpas, CO. Water-quality data were collected and reported from seven sites on the U.S. Army Garrison Fort Carson and the Piñon Canyon Maneuver Site during water years 2013–14. Sample results exceeding an established water-quality standard were identified. Selected water-quality properties and constituents were stratified to compare spatial variation among selected characteristics using boxplots. Trilinear diagrams were used to classify water type based on ionic concentrations of water-quality samples collected during the study period. At the U.S. Army Garrison Fort Carson and the Piñon Canyon Maneuver Site, 27 samples were classified as very hard or brackish. Seven samples had a lower hardness character relative to the other samples. Four of those nine samples were collected at two U.S. Geological Survey stations (Turkey Creek near Fountain, CO, and Little Fountain Creek above Highway 115 at Fort Carson, CO), which have different geologic makeup. Three samples collected at the Piñon Canyon Maneuver Site had a markedly lower hardness likely because of dilution from an increase in streamflow.

Colorado↗

USGS2024

Distribution, abundance, breeding activities, and habitat use of the Least Bell's Vireo at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton, California—2023 annual report

Executive Summary The purpose of this report is to provide the Marine Corps with an annual summary of abundance, breeding activity, demography, and habitat use of endangered Least Bell’s Vireos ( Vireo bellii pusillus ) at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton, California (MCBCP or Base). Surveys for the Least Bell's Vireo were completed at MCBCP between April 11 and July 20, 2023. Core survey areas and a subset of non-core areas in drainages containing riparian habitat suitable for vireos were surveyed two to four times. We detected 561 territorial male vireos and 28 transient vireos in core survey areas. An additional 103 territorial male vireos and 15 transients were detected in non-core survey areas. Transient vireos were detected on 10 of the 15 drainages/sites surveyed (core and non-core areas). In core survey areas, 90 percent of vireo territories were on the four most populated drainages, with the Santa Margarita River containing 72 percent of all territories in core areas surveyed on Base. In core areas, 79 percent of male vireos were confirmed as paired; 69 percent of male vireos in non-core areas were confirmed as paired. The number of documented Least Bell’s Vireo territories in core survey areas on MCBCP decreased 2 percent from 2022. In two core survey area drainages, the number of territories increased by at least three, and in two core survey area drainages, the number of vireo territories decreased by at least four between 2022 and 2023. The number of vireo territories at the lower San Luis Rey River increased 2 percent from 2022, in contrast to the decrease at MCBCP; however, this change was negligible overall. Although the 10-percent decrease at Marine Corps Air Station, Camp Pendleton from 2022 to 2023 was superficially less trivial, this 10-percent decrease represented the loss of a single territory. The proportion of surveys during which Brown-headed Cowbirds ( Molothrus ater ) were detected decreased to 0.20 from a peak of 0.45 in 2022. Cowbirds were detected from April through July in 2023. Most core-area vireos (62 percent, including transients) used mixed willow ( Salix spp.) riparian habitat. An additional 7 percent of birds occupied willow habitat co-dominated by Western sycamores ( Platanus racemosa ) or Fremont cottonwoods ( Populus fremontii ). Riparian scrub dominated by mule fat ( Baccharis salicifolia ), sandbar willow ( S. exigua ), or blue elderberry ( Sambucus mexicana ) was used by 29 percent of vireos. Habitat dominated by coast live oak ( Quercus agrifolia ) and sycamore or non-native habitat was used by 1 percent of vireos; fewer than 1 percent of vireo territories were in upland scrub and habitat dominated by white alder ( Alnus rhombifolia ). In 2019, MCBCP began operating an artificial seep along the Santa Margarita River; then in 2021, two additional artificial seeps became operational. The artificial seeps pumped water to the surface starting in March and ending in August each year during daylight hours and were designed to increase the amount of surface water present to enhance Southwestern Willow Flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii extimus ) breeding habitat. Although this enhancement was designed to benefit flycatchers, few flycatchers have inhabited MCBCP, including the seep areas, within the past several years; therefore, vireos were selected as a surrogate species to determine effects of the habitat enhancement. This report presents the fourth year of analyses of vireo and vegetation response to the artificial seeps. In 2020, we established four study sites along the Santa Margarita River, two surrounding and extending downstream of seep pumps at the Old Treatment Ponds and along Pump Road, and two Reference sites in similar habitat but further downstream of the Seep sites. In 2023, seep pumps at one Seep site did not function, and we recategorized that study site as Intermediate. Soil moisture was higher at sites that had surface water augmentation (Seep and Intermediate sites) than at the Reference site, and soil moisture also decreased with increasing distance from the seep pumps. We sampled vegetation at these sites to determine the effects of surface water enhancement by seep pumps. Soil moisture was positively related to total foliage cover, woody cover, and native herbaceous cover below 1 meter (m), and also positively related to native herbaceous cover between 1 and 2 m. The Seep site had greater total vegetation cover in the understory (71–79 percent) than the Intermediate (52–66 percent) and Reference (61–69 percent) sites. Total herbaceous cover below 3 m was higher at the Seep site than at the Intermediate site; total herbaceous cover between 1 and 3 m was higher at the Seep site than at the Reference sites. Native herbaceous cover below 3 m was greater at the Seep site than at the Reference sites; native herbaceous cover between 2 and 3 m was also greater at the Seep site than at the Intermediate site. Non-native cover below 3 m was greater at Seep and Reference sites than at the Intermediate site. We found no difference in woody cover among site types at any height. Vireo territory density among the Seep, Intermediate, and Reference sites was similar before the seep pumps were installed. However, vireo territory density at Seep and Intermediate sites combined was significantly higher than at Reference sites after the seep pumps were installed. The U.S. Geological Survey has been color banding Least Bell’s Vireos on Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton since 1995. By the end of 2022, over 1,000 Least Bell’s Vireos had been color banded on Base. In 2023, we continued to color band and resight color banded Least Bell’s Vireos to evaluate adult survival, site fidelity, between-year movement, and the effect of surface water enhancement on vireo return rate, site fidelity, and between-year movement. We banded 180 Least Bell's Vireos for the first time during the 2023 season, including 1 adult vireo and 179 nestlings. Adult vireos were banded with unique color combinations, whereas nestlings were banded with a single gold numbered federal band on the right leg. We resighted 57 Least Bell's Vireos on Base in 2023 that had been banded before the 2023 breeding season, 20 of which we were unable to identify. Of the 37 that we could identify, 34 were banded on Base, 2 were originally banded on the San Luis Rey River, and 1 was banded at Marine Corps Air Station, Camp Pendleton. Adult birds of known age ranged from 1 to 8 years old. Base-wide survival of vireos was affected by sex, age, and year. Males had significantly higher annual survival than females. Adults had higher annual survival than first-year vireos. Survival for adults and first-year birds was lowest from 2020 to 2021 and highest from 2007 to 2008 and from 2012 to 2013. The return rate of adult vireos to Seep, Intermediate, or Reference sites was not affected by the original banding site (Seep versus Intermediate versus Reference). Most returning adult vireos, predominantly males, showed strong between-year site fidelity. Of the adults present in 2022, 88 percent (96 percent of males; 25 percent of females) returned in 2023 to within 100 m of their previous territory. The discrepancy between male and female return rates follows the pattern observed in previous years. The average between-year movement for returning adult vireos was 0.4±1.9 kilometers (km). The average movement of first-year vireos detected in 2023 that fledged from a known nest on MCBCP in 2022 was 0.9±0.5 km. We monitored Least Bell's Vireo pairs to evaluate the effects of surface water enhancement on nest success and breeding productivity. We monitored vireo nesting activity at 13 territories in the Seep site, 12 territories at the Intermediate site, and 25 territories in the Reference sites between April 8 and July 26. All territories except one at a Seep site and one at a Reference site were occupied by pairs, and all were fully monitored, meaning that all nesting attempts were monitored at these territories. During the monitoring period, 99 nests (26 in the Seep site, 28 at the Intermediate site, and 45 in Reference sites) were monitored. Breeding productivity was similar among Seep, Intermediate, and Reference sites (2.9, 3.6, and 3.0 young fledged per pair, respectively), and a similar percentage of pairs at Seep, Intermediate, and Reference sites fledged at least 1 young (83, 83, and 96 percent, respectively). Other measures of breeding productivity were also similar among Seep, Intermediate, and Reference site pairs. According to the best model, daily nest survival in 2023 was not related to site. Fledging success appeared lower at Intermediate and Seep sites than at the Reference sites in 2023 (48, 46, and 67 percent, respectively), although the difference was not statistically significant. Predation was believed to be the primary source of nest failure at all sites. Predation accounted for 85, 77, and 71 percent of nest failures at Seep, Intermediate, and Reference sites, respectively. Failure of the remaining nests was attributed to infertile eggs, collapse of the vegetation supporting the nest, and other unknown causes. We found no relationships between vireo productivity and understory (below 3 m) vegetation cover. Vireos placed their nests in 15 plant species in 2023. We found few differences in nest placement between successful and unsuccessful vireo nests. At Reference sites, successful vireo nests were placed slightly but significantly higher in the vegetation than unsuccessful nests, and at Intermediate sites, successful nests were placed significantly closer to the edge of the nest plant than unsuccessful nests. We did not find differences in nest placement among Seep, Intermediate, and Reference sites. We found that as bio-year precipitation increased, the number of fledglings produced per vireo pair also increased. We did not find a link between bio-year precipitation and adult survival.

California↗

USGS2026

Hydrogeology of the Tully Valley and characterization of mudboil activity, Onondaga County, New York

Mudboil activity in the Tully Valley, in central New York, is causing turbidity in nearby Onondaga Creek, where it has caused a bridge to collapse; it also has threatened or damaged other structures and has caused extensive land subsidence. Mudboil activity was intermittent from its first reported appearance in the 1890's until the 1970's, when the rates of mudboil discharge and land subsidence began to increase. Historically, the water discharged from mudboils was reported as fresh, but chemical analyses in the late 1970's indicated an increase in specific conductance and chloride concentration. Mudboil discharge is driven by artesian pressure in unconsolidated sediments that are confined by a 60-foot layer of silt and red clay. This process, once begun, has been self-propagating. Artesian pressures are about 20 feet above land surface over most of the valley floor but exceed 30 feet above land surface along Onondaga Creek where Rattlesnake Gulf and Rainbow Creek enter the Tully Valley. The source of artesian pressure is recharge from the Tully (Valley Heads) Moraine at the south end of the valley, and the alluvial fans of Rattlesnake Gulf and Rainbow Creek. The mudboils are found within a 300-foot-wide by 1,500-foot-long corridor along Onondaga Creek just upstream from the two alluvial fans, and in a 5-acre subsided area just west of that corridor. Remediation efforts have entailed (1) diversion of flow from the tributary that feeds the subsided area, (2) installation of depressurizing wells at several locations, and (3) construction of a dam and settling impoundment to detain mudboil sediment that would normally discharge to Onondaga Creek. These efforts have been partly successful, but further work is needed to slow the mudboil activity, which is expected to persist in both areas. Mudboil activity is normally greatest during the early spring and late fall, when artesian pressures increase in response to seasonal ground-water recharge. Suspended-sediment concentrations at the out-flow of the subsidence area ranged from 31,210 mg/L (milligrams per liter) in October 1991 to 17 mg/L after remediation efforts in the summer of 1993. Yearly average suspended-sediment loads to Onondaga Creek from the subsidence area for water years 1992, 1993, 1994, and 1995 were 29.8, 9.75, 1.41, and 1.80 tons per day, respectively. Sediment discharged from the mudboils initially was 30 to 60 percent clay and 80 to 100 percent silt-sized or smaller sediment, and the sand fraction never exceeded 20 percent. After the remediation projects, 50 to 80 percent was clay, and nearly all sediment was silt size or smaller. Analyses of water from upstream and downstream of the subsidence area, as well as from mudboil vents within that area, indicate that the source of water for some mudboils is a confined freshwater aquifer, whereas for others it is an underlying, brackish-water aquifer. Water from the freshwater aquifer has specific conductance values ranging from about 400 ( μS /cm (microsiemens per centimeter at 25° Celsius) to almost 900 ( μS /cm, dissolved chloride concentrations range from 37 to 430 mg/L, and dissolved-solids concentrations range from 215 to 463 mg/L. Specific conductance of water from the brackish-water aquifer ranges from 17,000 to 28,000 ( μS /cm, chloride concentrations range from 2,000 to 7,100 mg/L, and dissolved-solids concentrations range from 4,200 to 12,800 mg/L. The largest landslide in New York State in the last 75 years occurred at the foot of Bare Mountain, 1 mile downstream from the mudboil area, in April 1993 and was the fourth in a series of slides that have occurred at the base of this hill. Slope instability was reported as early as May 1990. After the slide, intermittent mudboil-like activity was observed at several springs within the backscarp of the slide; water from these springs ranged from fresh to brackish. The chemical similarity between water from some springs in the backscarp area and water in the lower (brackish) aquifer beneath the mudboil area may indicate a hydraulic connection between this aquifer and the surficial deposits. Hydrologic changes in the valley during the last 100 years have been attributed to salt-solution mining in the upstream (southern) end of the valley. The removal of nearly 150 feet of salt from four evaporite beds in the Syracuse Shale of the Salina Group has caused the collapse of bedrock and unconsolidated deposits in and near the brine field, 3 miles south of the mudboil area. These collapses have created a hydraulic connection among bedding plane aquifers in the bedrock and increased the hydraulic connection with unconsolidated aquifers. The ground-water flow system after brine field closure in 1988 may have reached a new semiequilibrium, but mudboil activity will likely continue because artesian pressures remain. Whether mudboils were present before salt solution-mining began is unknown.

New York↗

USGS2016

Demographics and movements of least terns and piping plovers in the Central Platte River Valley, Nebraska

The Central Platte River Valley provides breeding habitat for a variety of migratory birds, including federally endangered interior least terns ( Sternula antillarum ; least tern) and threatened piping plovers ( Charadrius melodus ). Since 2009, researchers have collected demographic data on both species that span their lifecycle (that is, from egg laying through survival of adults). Demographic data were used to estimate vital rates (for example, nest survival, chick survival, and so on) for both species and assess how these vital rates were related to type and age of nesting habitat. Nest survival of both species was unrelated to the age of the site a nest was initiated on. Piping plover chick survival to fledging age was not related to the age of the site it was hatched at, however, the probability of a least tern chick surviving to fledging was higher at older sites. In general there were fewer piping plover nests than least tern nests found at sites created through either the physical construction of a new site or new vegetation management regimes, during 2009–14. Mean daily least tern nest survival was 0.9742 (95-percent confidence interval [CI]: 0.9692–0.9783) and cumulative nest survival was 0.59 (95-percent CI: 0.53–0.65). Mean daily least tern chick survival was 0.9602 (95-percent CI: 0.9515–0.9673) and cumulative survival to fledging was 0.54 (95-percent CI = 0.48–0.61). Annual apparent survival rates were estimated at 0.42 (95-percent CI = 0.22–0.64) for adult least terns nesting in the Central Platte River Valley and an apparent survival rate of 0.14 (95-pecent CI = 0.04–0.41) for juvenile least terns. The number of least tern nests present at sites created during 2009–14 was associated with the age of the site; more least tern nests were associated with older sites. During 2009–14, there were four (less than 1 percent of all chicks marked) least tern chicks hatched from the Central Platte River Valley that were subsequently captured on nests as adults. Two of these least terns returned to nest at the same site they had hatched from. Ten instances were documented in which an adult least tern could either switch to nest at a new location or remain at the previous location with the onset of a new year. In five (50 percent) of these instances, least terns returned to nest on the site where they had nested in a previous year. For piping plovers, mean daily apparent nest survival was 0.9880 (95-pecent CI: 0.9836–0.9912) and cumulative nest survival was 0.66 (95-pecent CI: 0.57–0.74). Mean daily piping plover chick survival was 0.9621 (95-pecent CI: 0.9514–0.9706) and cumulative survival to fledging was 0.46 (95-pecent CI = 0.37– 0.56). The annual apparent survival estimate for adult piping plovers nesting in the Central Platte River Valley was 0.76 (95-pecent CI = 0.65–0.85) and was 0.20 (95-pecent CI = 0.14–0.29) for juvenile piping plovers. The number of piping plover nests present at sites created through either the physical construction of a new site or new vegetation management regimes was also associated with site age, with more piping plover nests associated with older sites; however, in general there were fewer piping plover nests found at created sites than least tern nests. Only first-year adult piping plovers were observed on sites in the first year of availability, whereas older sites had a higher proportion of after-first-year adult piping plovers than first-year adult piping plovers. Twelve piping plover chicks (approximately 3 percent of all chicks marked) hatched from the Central Platte River Valley and were subsequently documented on nests as adults. All piping plovers returned to nest on different sites from the one on which they hatched. A total of 45 instances were documented in which an adult plover could either switch to nest at a new location or remain at the previous location with the onset of a new year. In 39 instances (87 percent), the adult nested on the same site as its prior documented nesting attempt and in 6 of these instances the adult switched to a new nesting location between years. There were 13 of 75 uniquely identifiable piping plovers observed to renest (that is, initiate more than one nest in a season) during 2009–14; no renests were observed among uniquely identifiable least terns. In all but one case, piping plover renests were found at the same site as the first nest initiated that season. For birds that renested, the mean initiation date of the first nest was May 6 and the mean initiation date of the second nest was June 8. On average, renests were initiated 7.5 days plus or minus 7.3 (SD [standard deviation]) following the date the initial nesting attempt was ‘fated’ (considered either failed or hatched).

Nebraska↗

USGS2012

Occurrence of pharmaceuticals, hormones, and organic wastewater compounds in Pennsylvania waters, 2006-09

Concern over the presence of contaminants of emerging concern, such as pharmaceutical compounds, hormones, and organic wastewater compounds (OWCs), in waters of the United States and elsewhere is growing. Laboratory techniques developed within the last decade or new techniques currently under development within the U.S. Geological Survey now allow these compounds to be measured at concentrations in nanograms per liter. These new laboratory techniques were used in a reconnaissance study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, to determine the occurrence of contaminants of emerging concern in streams, streambed sediment, and groundwater of Pennsylvania. Compounds analyzed for in the study are pharmaceuticals (human and veterinary drugs), hormones (natural and synthetic), and OWCs (detergents, fragrances, pesticides, industrial compounds, disinfectants, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, fire retardants and plasticizers). Reconnaissance sampling was conducted from 2006 to 2009 to identify contaminants of emerging concern in (1) groundwater from wells used to supply livestock, (2) streamwater upstream and downstream from animal feeding operations, (3) streamwater upstream from and streamwater and streambed sediment downstream from municipal wastewater effluent discharges, (4) streamwater from sites within 5 miles of drinking-water intakes, and (5) streamwater and streambed sediment where fish health assessments were conducted. Of the 44 pharmaceutical compounds analyzed in groundwater samples collected in 2006 from six wells used to supply livestock, only cotinine (a nicotine metabolite) and the antibiotics tylosin and sulfamethoxazole were detected. The maximum concentration of any contaminant of emerging concern was 24 nanograms per liter (ng/L) for cotinine, and was detected in a groundwater sample from a Lebanon County, Pa., well. Seven pharmaceutical compounds including acetaminophen, caffeine, carbamazepine, and the four antibiotics tylosin, sulfadimethoxine, sulfamethoxazole, and oxytetracycline were detected in streamwater samples collected in 2006 from six paired stream sampling sites located upstream and downstream from animal-feeding operations. The highest reported concentration of these seven compounds was for the antibiotic sulfamethoxazole (157 ng/L), in a sample from the downstream site on Snitz Creek in Lancaster County, Pa. Twenty-one pharmaceutical compounds were detected in streamwater samples collected in 2006 from five paired stream sampling sites located upstream or downstream from a municipal wastewater-effluent-discharge site. The most commonly detected compounds and maximum concentrations were the anticonvulsant carbamazepine, 276 ng/L; the antihistamine diphenhydramine, 135 ng/L; and the antibiotics ofloxacin, 329 ng/L; sulfamethoxazole, 1,340 ng/L; and trimethoprim, 256 ng/L. A total of 51 different contaminants of emerging concern were detected in streamwater samples collected from 2007 through 2009 at 13 stream sampling sites located downstream from a wastewater-effluent-discharge site. The concentrations and numbers of compounds detected were higher in stream sites downstream from a wastewater-effluent-discharge site than in stream sites upstream from a wastewater-effluent-discharge site. This finding indicates that wastewater-effluent discharges are a source of contaminants of emerging concern; these contaminants were present more frequently in the streambed-sediment samples than in streamwater samples. Antibiotic compounds were often present in both the streamwater and streambed-sediment samples, but many OWCs were present exclusively in the streambed-sediment samples. Compounds with endocrine disrupting potential including detergent metabolites, pesticides, and flame retardants, were present in the streamwater and streambed-sediment samples. Killinger Creek, a stream where wastewater-effluent discharges contribute a large percentage of the total flow, stands out as a stream with particularly high numbers of compounds detected and detected at the highest concentrations measured in the reconnaissance sampling. Nineteen contaminants of emerging concern were detected in streamwater samples collected quarterly from 2007 through 2009 at 27 stream sites within 5 miles of a drinking-water intake. The number of contaminants and the concentrations detected at the stream sites within 5 miles of drinking-water intakes were generally very low (concentrations less than 50 ng/L), much lower than those at sites downstream from a wastewater-effluent discharge. The most commonly detected compounds and maximum concentrations were caffeine, 517 ng/L; carbamazepine, 95 ng/L; sulfamethoxazole, 146 ng/L; and estrone, 3.15 ng/L. The concentrations and frequencies of detection of some of the contaminants of emerging concern appear to vary by season, which could be explained by compound use, flow regime, or differences in degradation rates. Concentrations of some contaminants were associated with lower flows as a result of decreased in-stream dilution of wastewater effluents or other contamination sources. Twenty-two contaminants of emerging concern were detected once each in streamwater samples collected in 2007 and 2008 from 16 fish-health stream sites located statewide. The highest concentrations were for the OWCs, including flame retardants tri(2-butoxyethyl)phosphate (604 ng/L) and tri(2-chloroethyl)phosphate (272 ng/L) and the fragrance isoquinoline (330 ng/L). Far fewer numbers of contaminants of emerging concern were detected at the fish-health sites than at the wastewater-effluent-discharge sites. Most of the fish-health sites were not located directly downstream from a wastewater-effluent discharge, but there were multiple wastewater-effluent discharges in the drainage basins upstream from the sampling sites. No distinct pattern of contaminant occurrence could be discerned for the fish-health stream sites

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2009

Sources, transport, and storage of sediment at selected sites in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

The Chesapeake Bay Watershed covers 165,800 square kilometers and is supplied with water and sediment from five major physiographic provinces: Appalachian Plateau, Blue Ridge, Coastal Plain, Piedmont, and the Valley and Ridge. Suspended-sediment loads measured in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed showed that the Piedmont Physiographic Province has the highest rates of modern (20th Century) sediment yields, measured at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations, and the lowest rates of background or geologic rates of erosion (~10,000 years) measured with in situ beryllium-10. In the agricultural and urbanizing Little Conestoga Creek Watershed, a Piedmont watershed, sources of sediment using the 'sediment-fingerprinting' approach showed that streambanks were the most important source (63 percent), followed by cropland (37 percent). Cesium-137 inventories, which quantify erosion rates over a 40-year period, showed average cropland erosion of 19.39 megagrams per hectare per year in the Little Conestoga Creek Watershed. If this erosion rate is extrapolated to the 13 percent of the watershed that is in cropland, then cropland could contribute almost four times the measured suspended-sediment load transported out of the watershed (27,600 megagrams per hectare per year), indicating that much of the eroded sediment is being deposited in channel and upland storage. The Piedmont has had centuries of land-use change, from forest to agriculture, to suburban and urban areas, and in some areas, back to forest. These land-use changes mobilized a large percentage of sediment that was deposited in upland and channel storage, and behind thousands of mill dams. The effects of these land-use changes on erosion and sediment transport are still being observed today as stored sediment in streambanks is a source of sediment. Cropland is also an important source of sediment. The Coastal Plain Physiographic Province has had the lowest sediment yields in the 20th Century and with sandy soils, contributes little fine-grained sediment. In the agricultural Pocomoke River Watershed, a Coastal Plain watershed, cesium-137 mass-balance results indicate that erosion and deposition are both occurring on cropland fields. Sources of sediment using the sediment-fingerprinting approach for the Pocomoke River were distributed as follows: cropland (46 percent), ditch beds (34 percent), ditch banks and streambanks (7 percent), and forest (13 percent). Cropland was a source of sediment for the two largest peak flow events, which occurred during harvesting when the ground may have been bare. The Pocomoke River Watershed is heavily ditched and channelized, conditions that are favorable for ditch bed and bank erosion. In the mixed land use (forested, agricultural, and urbanizing) Mattawoman Creek Watershed, a Coastal Plain watershed, sources of sediment using the sediment-fingerprinting approach were distributed as follows: streambanks (30 percent), forest (29 percent), construction (25 percent), and cropland (17 percent). Mattawoman Creek Watershed drains a rapidly developing region with 182 hectares (approximately 1.26 percent of the watershed) under construction. Sediment from construction sites was also determined as a source of sediment in the Mattawoman Creek Watershed. The sediment-fingerprinting source results for the three watersheds analyzed, show that in all watersheds, both the stream corridor and agriculture were significant sources of sediment. Forest as a source of sediment in the Mattawoman Creek Watershed may indicate that these forests are being disturbed and forest soils are eroding. Bare ground can be an important sediment source. Spatial analysis of bare ground in the Little Conestoga Creek Watershed using satellite imagery between 2000 and 2005 showed that the majority of bare ground was classified as pasture. Bare ground was correlated to the growing season with the highest percentages occurring in the early spring (April, 34 percent) and a

Chesapeake Bay Watershed↗

USGS2016

Agricultural irrigated land-use inventory for the counties in the Suwannee River Water Management District in Florida, 2015

A detailed inventory of irrigated crop acreage is not available at the level of resolution needed to accurately estimate agricultural water use or to project future water demands in many Florida counties. A detailed digital map and summary of irrigated acreage during the 2015 growing season was developed for 13 of the 15 counties that compose the Suwannee River Water Management District. The irrigated areas were delineated using land-use data, orthoimagery, and information obtained from the water management district consumptive water-use permits that were then field verified between May and November of 2015. Selected attribute data were collected for the irrigated areas, including crop type, primary water source, and type of irrigation system. Results indicate that an estimated 113,134 acres were either irrigated or had potential for irrigation in all or part of the 13 counties within the Suwannee River Water Management District during 2015. This estimate includes 108,870 acres of field-verified, irrigated crops and 4,264 acres of irrigated land observed as (1) idle (with an irrigation system visible but no crop present at the time of the field-verification visit), (2) acres that could not be verified during field visits, or (3) acres that were located on publicly owned research lands. Of the total field-verified crops, 83,721 acres were field crops; 20,962 acres were vegetable crops (sometimes referred to as row crops); 3,089 acres were in tree nurseries, ornamentals, and sod production; and 1,098 acres were fruit crops. Specific irrigated crops included 32,468 acres of corn (primarily for silage); 28,170 acres of peanuts; and 10,331 acres of hay. About 40 percent of the vegetable acreage (8,340 acres) was double cropped (planted with both a spring and a fall crop on the same field). Beans, carrots, and watermelons were the most commonly grown vegetable crops in these 13 counties in 2015. Sprinkler irrigation systems including center pivots, portable or traveling guns, and permanent or solid overhead fixtures accounted for nearly 91 percent (102,874 acres) of the total irrigated acreage in the Suwannee River Water Management District, whereas microirrigation systems including drip irrigation accounted for 9 percent (10,260 acres) of the irrigated acreage. A total of 1,466 center pivots were observed during field verification in 2015 and accounted for 93,093 irrigated acres (which represents 82 percent of the total irrigated acreage). Most center pivots were in use at the time of the field verification, although about 3 percent appeared idle. No flood irrigation systems were observed during field verification in 2015. Overall, groundwater was used to irrigate nearly all of the field-verified acreage (99.8 percent). Dairy wastewater effluent was used on many fields during 2015; however, a quantitative estimate of acreage using effluent could not be determined. Irrigated cropland totaled 26,927 acres in Suwannee County; 16,511 acres in Madison County; 14,862 acres in Hamilton County; and 14,155 acres in Gilchrist County; these four counties accounted for nearly two-thirds (64 percent) of the acres irrigated within the Suwannee River Water Management District during 2015. Corn (primarily for silage) and peanuts were the primary irrigated crops, accounting for 48, 70, and 71 percent, respectively, of the total irrigated acreage in Suwannee, Madison, and Gilchrist Counties; vegetables accounted for 52 percent of the total irrigated acres in Hamilton County. Other counties with substantial irrigated acreage included Levy (10,122 acres), Alachua (9,547 acres), and Lafayette (8,110 acres); these three counties, combined with Suwannee, Madison, Hamilton, and Gilchrist Counties, accounted for 88 percent of the irrigated acreage in the Suwannee River Water Management District. The irrigated acreage that was field verified in 2015 for the 13 counties in the Suwannee River Water Management District (113,134 acres) is about 6 percent higher than the estimated acreage published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (107,217 acres) for 2012; however, this 2012 value represents acreage for the entire portion of all 13 counties, not just the Suwannee River Water Management District portion. Differences between the 2015 field-verified acreage totals and those published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture for 2012 may occur because (1) irrigated acreage for some specific crops increased or decreased substantially during the 3-year interval due to commodity prices or economic changes, (2) calculated field-verified irrigated acreage may be an overestimate because irrigation was assumed if an irrigation system was present and therefore the acreage was counted as irrigated, when in fact that may not have been the case as some farmers may not have used their irrigation systems during this growing period even if they had a crop in the field, or (3) the amount of irrigated acreages published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture for selected crops may be underestimated in some cases.

Florida↗

USGS2013

Simulation of salinity intrusion along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts using climate-change scenarios

Potential changes in climate could alter interactions between environmental and societal systems and adversely affect the availability of water resources in many coastal communities. Changes in streamflow patterns in conjunction with sea-level rise may change the salinity-intrusion dynamics of coastal rivers. Several municipal water-supply intakes are located along the Georgia and South Carolina coast that are proximal to the present day saltwater-freshwater interface of tidal rivers. Increases in the extent of salinity intrusion resulting from climate change could threaten the availability of freshwater supplies in the vicinity of these intakes. To effectively manage these supplies, water-resource managers need estimates of potential changes in the frequency, duration, and magnitude of salinity intrusion near their water-supply intakes that may occur as a result of climate change. This study examines potential effects of climate change, including altered streamflow and sea-level rise, on the dynamics of saltwater intrusion near municipal water-supply intakes in two coastal areas. One area consists of the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway (AIW) and the Waccamaw River near Myrtle Beach along the Grand Strand of the South Carolina Coast, and the second area is on or near the lower Savannah River near Savannah, Georgia. The study evaluated how future sea-level rise and a reduction in streamflows can potentially affect salinity intrusion and threaten municipal water supplies and the biodiversity of freshwater tidal marshes in these two areas. Salinity intrusion occurs as a result of the interaction between three principal forces—streamflow, mean coastal water levels, and tidal range. To analyze and simulate salinity dynamics at critical coastal gaging stations near four municipal water-supply intakes, various data-mining techniques, including artificial neural network (ANN) models, were used to evaluate hourly streamflow, salinity, and coastal water-level data collected over a period exceeding 10 years. The ANN models were trained (calibrated) to learn the specific interactions that cause salinity intrusions, and resulting models were able to accurately simulate historical salinity dynamics in both study areas. Changes in sea level and streamflow quantity and timing can be simulated by the salinity intrusion models to evaluate various climate-change scenarios. The salinity intrusion models for the study areas are deployed in a decision support system to facilitate the use of the models for management decisions by coastal water-resource managers. The report describes the use of the salinity-intrusion models decision support system to evaluate salinity-intrusion dynamics for various climate-change scenarios, including incremental increases in sea level in combination with incremental decreases in streamflow. Operation of municipal water-treatment plants is problematic when the specific-conductance values for source water are greater than 1,000 to 2,000 microsiemens per centimeter (µS/cm). High specific-conductance values contribute to taste problems that require treatment. Data from a gage downstream from a municipal water intake indicate specific conductance exceeded 1,000 µS/cm about 5.4 percent of the time over the 14-year period from August 1995 to August 2008. Simulations of specific conductance at this gaging station that incorporates sea-level rises resulted in a doubling of the exceedances to 11.0 percent for a 1-foot increase and 17.6 percent for a 2-foot increase. The frequency of intrusion of water with specific conductance values of 1,000 µS/cm was less sensitive to incremental reductions in streamflow than to incremental increases in sea level. Simulations of conditions associated with a 10-percent reduction in streamflow, in combination with a 1-foot rise in sea level, increased the percentage of time specific conductance exceeded 1,000 µS/cm at this site from 11.0 to 13.3 percent, and a 20-percent reduction in streamflow increased the percentage of time to 16.6 percent. Precipitation and temperature data from a global circulation model were used, after scale adjustments, as input to a watershed model of the Yadkin-Pee Dee River basin, which flows into the Waccamaw River and Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway study area in South Carolina. The simulated streamflow for historical conditions and projected climate change in the future was used as input for the ANN model in decision support system. Results of simulations incorporating climate-change projections for alterations in streamflow indicate an increase in the frequency of salinity-intrusion events and a shift in the seasonal occurrence of the intrusion events from the summer to the fall.

South Carolina↗

USGS1953

Ground-water resources of the Rapid Valley unit, Cheyenne Division, South Dakota, with a section on the surface waters of Rapid Valley

The Rapid Valley unit is in Pennington County, S. Dak., and extends from the east city limits of Rapid City southeastward for 21 miles along Rapid Creek. The bedrock formations that underlie the region are chiefly marine in origin, and they generally dip eastward from the center of the Black Hills uplift. The exposed formations are of Cretaceous age and consist of the Greenhorn limestone, the Carlile shale, the Niobrara formation, and the Pierre shale. The Pierre shale, which underlies the unconsolidated flood plain and terrace deposits in much Of the region is exposed in the erosional slopes along the south side of the valley and in the deeper draws on the north side. The areas in which the other formations are exposed are relatively small and are restricted to the western part of-the region. Four terraces are present on the north side of Rapid Creek. The lowest terrace and the flood plain in the western half of the region are irrigated at the present time, and the two lower terraces and the flood plain in the eastern half have been proposed for irrigation. Abundant supplies of ground water occur in the flood plain and terrace deposits where they are now irrigated. Because the waterbearing materials consist of interfingering layers of differing permeability, the ground water is under water-table conditions in some places whereas it is confined in others. Locally, where there is a confining layer below other water-bearing materials or where a confined layer is itself saturated, the ground water may occur under both water-table and artesian conditions. Seepage from irrigation canals, which is the principal source of recharge, causes high ground-water levels from June to November; as a result, parts of the areas have become waterlogged. In the parts of the region that are not now affected by irrigation, the surface of the ground water is only a few feet above the bedrock surface and 6 ft to 42 ft below land surface; its position is relatively constant throughout the year. Harmful concentrations of salt in the soil are in part due to evaporation of ground water. These are found only locally in the Rapid Valley region and do not present a serious problem at this time. It is thought, however, that the fine-grained materials underlying the Rapid terrace may contain sufficient salt to cause detrimental salt accumulations in the soil if the proposed irrigation causes ground-water levels to rise close to the surface. Lining of the irrigation canals would reduce the amount of seepage and would effect a lowering of ground-water levels, if irrigation practices are extended to other areas, drainage facilities will be necessary both to avoid aggravating the existing conditions of waterlogging and to prevent the waterlogging of other low-lying lands. The flow of Rapid Creek is affected by a variety of conditions. A few miles west of Rapid City, where Rapid Creek flows over the Englewood and Pahasapa limestones and the Minnelusa sandstone, there is a loss of about 8 cfs of water in a distance of a few miles. In the 3-mile reach of Rapid Creek between the Canyon Lake stream-gaging station and the Rapid City stream-gaging station there is a gain of about 20 cfs; much of this gain in flow may be attributed to the inflow from Cleghorn and Jackson springs and to the addition of water from the State-owned cement plant. In the Rapid Valley unit, the flow of the creek during the irrigation season is affected largely by the amount of water diverted for irrigation. The irrigation canals act as bypass channels, much of the water being returned to Rapid Creek by way of spillage into normally dry tributary creek channels and by movement through ground-water bodies that discharge into Rapid Creek.

South Dakota↗

USGS2017

Characterization of streamflow, suspended sediment, and nutrients entering Galveston Bay from the Trinity River, Texas, May 2014–December 2015

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Texas Water Development Board and the Galveston Bay Estuary Program, collected streamflow and water-quality data at USGS streamflow-gaging stations in the lower Trinity River watershed from May 2014 to December 2015 to characterize and improve the current understanding of the quantity and quality of freshwater inflow entering Galveston Bay from the Trinity River. Continuous streamflow records at four USGS streamflow-gaging stations were compared to quantify differences in streamflow magnitude between upstream and downstream reaches of the lower Trinity River. Water-quality conditions were characterized from discrete nutrient and sediment samples collected over a range of hydrologic conditions at USGS streamflow-gaging station 08067252 Trinity River at Wallisville, Tex. (hereinafter referred to as the “Wallisville site”), approximately 4 river miles upstream from where the Trinity River enters Galveston Bay. Based on streamflow records, annual mean outflow from Livingston Dam into the lower Trinity River was 2,240 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s) in 2014 and 22,400 ft 3 /s in 2015, the second lowest and the highest, respectively, during the entire period of record (1966–2015). During this study, only about 54 percent of the total volume measured at upstream sites was accounted for at the Wallisville site as the Trinity River enters Galveston Bay. This difference in water volumes between upstream sites and the Wallisville site indicates that at high flows a large part of the volume released from Lake Livingston does not reach Galveston Bay through the main channel of the Trinity River. These findings indicate that water likely flows into wetlands and water bodies surrounding the main channel of the Trinity River before reaching the Wallisville site and is being stored or discharged through other channels that flow directly into Galveston Bay. To characterize suspended-sediment concentrations and loads in Trinity River inflow to Galveston Bay, a regression model was developed to estimate suspended-sediment concentrations by using acoustic backscatter data as a surrogate. The model yielded an adjusted coefficient of determination value of 0.92 and a root mean square error of 1.65 milligrams per liter (mg/L). The mean absolute percentage error between measured and estimated suspended-sediment concentration was 35 percent. During this study, estimated suspended-sediment concentrations ranged from 2 to 701 mg/L, with a mean of 97 mg/L. Suspended-sediment concentrations varied in response to changes in discharge, with peak suspended-sediment concentrations occurring 1 to 2 days before the peak discharge for each event. The total suspended-sediment load at the Wallisville site during May 2014–December 2015 was approximately 2,200,000 tons, with a minimum monthly suspended-sediment load of 100 tons in October 2014 and a maximum monthly load of 441,000 tons in November 2015. Results from nutrient samples collected at the Wallisville site indicate that total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations fluctuated at a similar rate, with the highest nutrient concentrations occurring during periods of high flow corresponding to releases from Lake Livingston. The mean concentrations of total nitrogen and total phosphorus were approximately 75 percent higher during high flow releases than during periods of low flow, overshadowing variations in nutrient concentrations caused by seasonality at the Wallisville site. Results from the study indicate nutrient delivery to Galveston Bay from the main channel of the Trinity River is likely controlled primarily by high-flow releases from Lake Livingston. For most samples collected at the Wallisville site, organic nitrogen was the predominant form of nitrogen; however, when discharge increased because of releases from Lake Livingston, the percentage of organic nitrogen typically decreased and the percentage of nitrate increased. The concentrations of total phosphorus also increased during high-flow events, likely as a result of suspended sediment within Lake Livingston releases and mobilization of sediment particles in the river channel and flood plain during these periods of high flow. The predominant source of phosphorous to Galveston Bay from the Trinity River is in particulate form closely tied to suspended-sediment concentrations. The changes in nutrient concentration and composition caused by releases from Lake Livingston during this study indicate the reservoir may play an important role in the delivery of nutrients into Galveston Bay. Further study is required to better understand the processes in Lake Livingston influencing the characteristics of nutrient and sediment inflow to Galveston Bay. With phosphorous concentrations correlated to suspended-sediment concentrations (coefficient of determination value of 0.75) and with the concentrations of nutrients changing as the discharge changes, the diversion of water and suspended sediment into surrounding wetlands and channels outside of the main channel of the Trinity River may play a large role in regulating nutrient inputs into Galveston Bay.

Texas↗

USGS2017

Multiple-source tracking: Investigating sources of pathogens, nutrients, and sediment in the Upper Little River Basin, Kentucky, water years 2013–14

The South Fork Little River (SFLR) and the North Fork Little River (NFLR) are two major headwater tributaries that flow into the Little River just south of Hopkinsville, Kentucky. Both tributaries are included in those water bodies in Kentucky and across the Nation that have been reported with declining water quality. Each tributary has been listed by the Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet—Kentucky Division of Water in the 303(d) List of Waters for Kentucky Report to Congress as impaired by nutrients, pathogens, and sediment for contact recreation from point and nonpoint sources since 2002. In 2009, the Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet—Kentucky Division of Water developed a pathogen total maximum daily load (TMDL) for the Little River Basin including the SFLR and NFLR Basins. Future nutrient and suspended-sediment TMDLs are planned once nutrient criteria and suspended-sediment protocols have been developed for Kentucky. In this study, different approaches were used to identify potential sources of fecal-indicator bacteria (FIB), nitrate, and suspended sediment; to inform the TMDL process; and to aid in the implementation of effective watershed-management activities. The main focus of source identification was in the SFLR Basin. To begin understanding the potential sources of fecal contamination, samples were collected at 19 sites for densities of FIB ( E. coli ) in water and fluvial sediment and at 11 sites for Bacteroidales genetic markers (General AllBac, human HF183, ruminant BoBac, canid BacCan, and waterfowl GFD) during the recreational season (May through October) in 2013 and 2014. Results indicated 34 percent of all E. coli water samples ( n =227 samples) did not meet the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 2012 recommended national criteria for primary recreational waters. No criterion currently exists for E. coli in fluvial sediment. By use of the Spearman’s rank correlation test, densities of FIB in fluvial sediments were observed to have a statistically significant positive correlation with drainage area. As drainage area increased, so did the densities of FIB in the fluvial sediments. There was no statistically significant correlation between drainage area and FIB in water. The human-associated marker (HF183) was found above the detection limit in 26 percent of the samples ( n =120 samples); a higher proportion of positive samples was in the NFLR Basin. The ruminant-associated marker (BoBac) was above the detection limit in 65 percent of samples; a higher proportion of positive samples was in the headwaters of the SFLR Basin. Nutrient yields differed between the SFLR and NFLR Basins. Comparatively, the SFLR Basin produced the largest estimated mean yields of total nitrogen (16,000 pounds per year per square mile (lb/yr/mi 2 ) and nitrite plus nitrate nitrogen (12,500 lb/yr/mi 2 ), and the NFLR Basin produced the largest estimated mean yields of ammonia plus organic nitrogen (4,700 lb/yr/mi 2 ), total phosphorus (1,100 lb/yr/mi 2 ), and orthophosphorus (590 lb/yr/mi 2 ). Nitrate sources in surface water were assessed in both basins using dual-nitrate isotope (nitrogen and oxygen) ratios. Data from the different land uses in the SFLR Basin showed differences in nitrate concentrations and overlapping, but moderately distinct, isotopic signatures. Predominantly forested sites consistently had low nitrate concentrations (median = 0.233 milligrams per liter) with minimal variability, and agricultural sites had the highest nitrate concentrations (median = 7.55 milligrams per liter) with the greatest variability. The median nitrate concentration for sites with mixed land use was 2.66 milligrams per liter. Dual-isotope data for forested sites plotted within ranges characteristic of soil-derived nitrate with possible but minimal influence from recycled atmospheric nitrate. Ranges of dual-isotope data for sites with agricultural and mixed land uses were characteristic of possible mixtures of chemical fertilizer, soil-derived nitrate, and manure and septic wastes. In the NFLR Basin, a positive linear relation was observed between nitrate concentrations and nitrogen isotope ratios (δ 15 N NO3 ) (R 2 =0.56; p -value <0.001) that potentially suggests the NFLR Basin has a higher proportion of δ 15 N NO3 -enriched sources, such as manure and sewage. However, mixing of other nitrate-derived sources cannot be excluded, because many values of δ 15 N NO3 and concentrations of nitrate showed minimal variation and plotted within dual-nitrate isotope ranges characteristic of fertilizer and soil-derived nitrate sources. A sediment-fingerprinting approach was used to quantify the relative contribution of four upland sources in the SFLR Basin (agricultural, pasture, riparian/forest, and streambank) to understand how land management affects suspended-sediment concentration. Carbon isotope ratios (δ 13 C), together with calcium and carbon concentrations, were the best indicators of sediment source; the uncertainty was less than 11 percent. Fine-sediment samples collected at the SFLR Basin outlet indicated streambanks as the largest source of the fine sediment to the stream followed by cropland and riparian/forest-source areas, respectively; pasture was a minor contributing source. Streambanks and cropland were essentially equal contributors of fine sediment at the NFLR Basin outlet.

Kentucky↗

USGS2024

Simulated mean monthly groundwater-transported nitrogen loads in watersheds on the north shore of Long Island Sound, 1993–2022

Elevated nitrogen loads are pervasive in the Long Island Sound, an estuary that receives freshwater and nutrients from both surface-water and groundwater discharge. Surface-water nitrogen loads to the Long Island Sound are relatively well characterized, but less is known about groundwater-transported nitrogen loads. Prior work on the northern shore of Long Island Sound (Connecticut and areas of New York and Rhode Island) suggested that groundwater travel times are relatively short (median less than 2 years) and that decade-long nutrient legacies are not widespread. Because the travel times are short, groundwater flow and nutrient loads likely vary substantially between months. In the current study, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Long Island Sound Study and the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection, developed a set of models to better characterize spatial and temporal patterns of groundwater-transported nitrogen loading from atmospheric deposition, septic systems, and fertilizers within the study area. The models provide an estimate, with uncertainty, of groundwater-transported nitrogen loads in the study area, filling a key gap in the nitrogen budget for Long Island Sound. The models also highlight the spatial and temporal variation in nitrogen loading throughout the study area. The modeling workflow involved four models. (1) A soil-water-balance model was developed by using the Soil-Water-Balance software to simulate groundwater recharge across the study area for water years 2005 through 2022. The simulated mean monthly recharge from the soil-water-balance model was used as input into a groundwater-flow model. (2) The groundwater-flow model was developed by using the MODFLOW 6 software and data for water years 1993 through 2022 and simulates average monthly hydrologic conditions. The groundwater-flow model was calibrated by using the Iterative Ensemble Smoother method within the PEST++ software. The Iterative Ensemble Smoother method generates an ensemble of sets of parameter values, with each set producing reasonable simulated hydrologic parameter values. (3) An ensemble of MODPATH particle-tracking simulations were run to generate particle flow paths and travel times, with each simulation using a different set of the flow model parameters. (4) A nitrogen load model uses the MODPATH simulation outputs to track nitrogen from the land surface through multiple attenuation zones until it discharges into fresh or saline surface water. As with the groundwater-flow model, the nitrogen model simulated average monthly groundwater-transported nitrogen loads for water years 1993 through 2022. One novel aspect of the nitrogen load model is that the nitrogen attenuation parameters were calibrated to observed nitrogen loads. Across the ensemble of simulated nitrogen loads, the median study-area-wide monthly simulated nitrogen loads from the aquifer to Long Island Sound throughout the year ranged from 900 to 18,600 kilograms of nitrogen per day, with a median load of 5,100 kilograms of nitrogen per day. The simulated loads were based on average monthly conditions for water years 1993 through 2022. Loads were highest during the winter and early spring and lowest during the late summer. However, simulated travel times for groundwater and nitrogen loads discharged to Long Island Sound during summer were longer than travel times for groundwater and loads discharged during the winter, indicating that, on average, groundwater discharged during summer traveled along different, and longer, flow paths, than groundwater discharged during winter. This indicates that summer loads would respond more slowly to changes in nitrogen inputs at the water table than winter loads. Over the entire study area, approximately 15 percent of the simulated load is from atmospheric deposition sources, 30 to 40 percent is from fertilizer, and 50 to 60 percent is from septic systems. The final analysis of the study involved simulating the change in groundwater-transported nitrogen load in response to upgrading septic systems or reducing fertilizing inputs to areas of turf grass. Both management interventions reduced the groundwater-transported nitrogen load, and reductions were greater in areas with greater loads from septic systems or turf-grass fertilizers. The delay between management actions and substantial reductions in groundwater-transported nitrogen loads varied seasonally; loads during the late summer months remained elevated longer than the winter loads.

Connecticut, Rhode Island↗

USGS2024

Status and trends of pelagic and benthic prey fish populations in Lake Michigan, 2023

Fall bottom trawl (fall BT) and lakewide acoustic (AC) surveys are conducted annually to generate indices of pelagic and benthic prey fish densities in Lake Michigan. The fall BT survey has been conducted each fall since 1973 using 12-m trawls at depths ranging from 9 to 110 m at fixed locations distributed across seven transects; this survey estimates densities of seven prey fish species [i.e., Alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus ), Bloater ( Coregonus hoyi ), Rainbow Smelt ( Osmerus mordax ), Deepwater Sculpin ( Myoxocephalus thompsonii ), Slimy Sculpin ( Cottus cognatus ), Round Goby ( Neogobius melanostomus ), Ninespine Stickleback ( Pungitius pungitius )] as well as age-0 Yellow Perch ( Perca flavescens ) and large (> 350 mm) Burbot ( Lota lota ). The AC survey has been conducted each late summer/early fall since 2004, and the 2023 survey consisted of 20 transects [450 km total (336 miles)] covering bottom depths ranging from 12 to 248 m and 29 midwater trawl tows above bottom depths ranging 16 to 246 m; this survey estimates densities of three prey fish species (i.e., Alewife, Bloater, and Rainbow Smelt). The data generated from these surveys are used to estimate various population parameters that are, in turn, used by state and tribal agencies in managing Lake Michigan fish stocks. A spring bottom trawl survey (spring BT) was implemented across 3 of the transects sampled in the fall and sites ranged in depth from 18 to 164 m. The goal of the spring BT is to explore seasonal differences in biomass density and distributions of key prey species, most notably Alewife. Additionally, we conducted acoustic sampling while bottom trawling to evaluate the vertical distribution of fish relative to the height of the trawl. The abbreviated spring BT survey results indicated that Alewives were primarily offshore with peak biomass density at the 91 m bottom depth. There was no evidence of higher acoustic density above the trawl at depths of 18, 73, 128, and 146 m. At 91 and 164 m, acoustic density above the trawl was >2x that in the trawl path, but sample size at these two depths was low. For the AC survey, total biomass density of prey fish equaled 14.8 kg/ha, 223% higher than the longterm average (2004-2022) of 4.6 kg/ha and 8.8 kg/ha higher than the 2022 estimate. For the fall BT, total biomass density of prey fish equaled 3.6 kg/ha, about 50% lower than the average value from 2004-2022 (6.9 kg/ha). The 2023 fall BT biomass was an order of magnitude lower than the average over the entirety of the time series (1973-2022; 33.7 kg/ha). Bloater was the dominant species (by biomass) among prey fishes in the fall BT, while the AC survey reported dominance of Alewife. Mean biomass of yearling and older (YAO) Alewife was 10.3 kg/ha in the AC survey, and 0.7 kg/ha in the fall BT. Since 2014, catchability of YAO Alewives for the fall BT has been substantially lower than the AC survey. While limited in scope, the results of the 2023 spring BT do not suggest that catchability is substantially higher in the spring than the fall, which aligns with the 2022 survey results. Comparing the AC estimate to previous years, YAO Alewife biomass was 359% higher than the average from 2004-2022. Numeric density of age-0 Alewife from the AC survey was 1,205 fish/ha in 2023, which is the third highest in the time series and well above the long-term mean of 428 fish/ha. Biomass density of large (≥120 mm) Bloater in 2023 was 3.5 kg/ha in the AC survey and 2.1 kg/ha in the fall BT - each at least an order of magnitude lower than what was estimated by the fall BT between 1985 and 1997. Following a record high year in 2021 (1,034 fish/ha), the numeric density of small (<120 mm) Bloater was 142 fish/ha in the AC survey, similar to the long-term mean of 120 fish/ha. Meanwhile, small Bloater density estimated in the fall BT was 2 fish/ha. Biomass density of large Rainbow Smelt (≥90 mm) was <0.05 kg/ha in the AC and fall BT surveys, continuing the trend of low Rainbow Smelt biomass that has been observed since 2001. Numeric density of small (<90 mm) Rainbow Smelt was 119 fish/ha in the AC survey and 7 fish/ha in the fall BT, indicating a weak year-class. All four prey fish species sampled only by the fall BT indicated below average biomass densities. Deepwater Sculpin biomass density was estimated at 0.4 kg/ha, which makes 13 of the past 14 years when biomass was <1 kg/ha. Slimy Sculpin was estimated at 0.02 kg/ha, only 5% of the long-term average. Round Goby was estimated at 0.3 kg/ha, below the average biomass of 0.85 kg/ha since 2008 but similar to intermittent low values observed throughout the dataset. Ninespine Stickleback density was 1 fish/ha. Only 35 small (<100 mm) Yellow Perch were caught, indicating a weak Yellow Perch year-class in 2023.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2020

Evaluating dewatering approaches to protect larval Pacific lamprey

Executive Summary Larval Pacific lamprey live for several years burrowed in nearshore sediments where they filter feed on detritus and organic matter. Dewatering of larval habitat can occur as a result of flow-management practices, construction projects, or seasonal closures of irrigation diversions. Effective management of dewatering events requires guidance on approaches to protect lamprey, such as dewatering rates and light conditions (day or night) that allow lamprey the best opportunity to relocate water and avoid being stranded. We conducted controlled laboratory experiments comparing five dewatering rates (1, 1.8, 4, 8, and 16 inches per hour [in/h]) and two light conditions (light and dark) to evaluate their effectiveness in protecting larval lamprey. We used a tank with a simulated shoreline at a 10-percent slope filled with river sediment and manipulated the outflow to control the rate of dewatering until water was covering only the sediment in the lowest tank section, at the bottom of the slope. Following dewatering, larvae were classified as either stranded (in or on the substrate outside the watered area) or safe (relocated to the wetted area at the lower end of the tank). All study groups experienced high rates of stranding. The lowest stranding rates were for 1 in/h, in both light (77 percent) and dark (80 percent). Faster dewatering rates generally produced higher percentages of stranded fish, and both the dark and light trials at 16 in/h stranded all larvae. At each of the five dewatering rates, trials conducted in the dark stranded the same or higher proportions of fish than the corresponding trial conducted in the light, so there was no clear advantage to dewatering during dark conditions. The largest contribution to stranding rates for all study groups was the high number of larvae (50–80 percent) that did not initiate movement in response to dewatering and remained in the uppermost tank section where they were stocked at the start of the trials. The proportion of larvae that emerged from the sediment during dewatering trials was approximately 30 percent, and fish that emerged were consistently smaller than those that remained burrowed. Combining all dewatering rates, emergence was 31.3 percent for groups under dark conditions and 30.7 percent for groups under light conditions. We recorded the timing of emergence for 58 larvae and their median time to emerge (after the surface of the sediment in the uppermost tank section was dewatered) was 0.62 hour (h) (range 0–4.5 h). We measured larval movement rates and found that large fish moved faster than small fish. Differences in larval movement rate based on light condition were significant only for large fish, which had a significantly faster rate during light conditions. Larval lamprey moved, over short distances, at rates that exceeded the fastest dewatering rate we tested. The mean movement rates for groups ranged from 19.0 to 44.4 centimeters per minute [cm/min]) and the fastest dewatering rate (16 in/h) is equivalent to less than 1 cm/min. Only the slowest movement rate measured, 6.6 cm/min for one individual lamprey, was slower than the fastest dewatering rate. We also investigated lamprey responses to a series of dewatering and rewatering events. Individual larvae were held in cylinders and exposed to four cycles of dewatering and rewatering using dewatering rates of 1 and 16 in/h and a rewatering rate of 2 in/h. Each dewatering rate was tested under both dark and light conditions. The location of fish, either on the surface of the sediment or burrowed, was recorded after each dewatering event for four rounds. The most common individual fish response for all study groups was to remain burrowed through all four rounds, and there were large differences in response between small and large larvae. Overall for small larvae, combining all groups, 14 of 28 fish emerged, and of those, 8 died and 1 was lethargic. The 1-in/h rate had 7 of the 8 mortalities, split about equally between the dark (3 fish) and light (4 fish) trials. All but one fish that died emerged from the sediment at some point during the four rounds of dewatering. Large larvae predominantly remained burrowed in all four rounds and did not experience any mortality. None of the large fish emerged for more than a single round, and emergence occurred only in the first and second rounds. Larvae emerged more quickly as the number of dewatering events increased. The mean time to emerge after the surface of the sediment in the tube was dewatered, combing all four groups, was 42 minutes (min) in round 1 (14 fish), 16 min in round 2 (5 fish), 11 min in round 3 (3 fish), and 8 minutes in round 4 (3 fish). When all groups and rounds of dewatering were combined, the overall mean time to emerge was 29 min (25 fish) and ranged from 1 min to 2 hours after the surface of the sediment was dewatered. Larvae burrowed deeper during the 1-in/h trials than the 16-in/h trials, and few fish were deeper than about 23 centimeters (cm). Large larvae burrowed deeper than small larvae. Small larvae were most concentrated from 0 to 7.6 cm (83.7 percent), and large fish were concentrated from 15.2 to 22.8 cm (43.3 percent). The second dewatering event resulted in greater mean burrowing depth than the first event, but trends after the second event were less clear. Larval size played a role in lamprey responses to dewatering, having a significant effect on emergence, movement rate, and vertical distribution. The sediment used for laboratory testing or occupied by lamprey in the field appears to affect lamprey response to dewatering and deserves greater attention in future studies. Larvae were more active in the dark, but darkness did not consistently provide better outcomes (e.g., more emergence or reduced stranding) compared to daylight. An improved understanding of the cues that prompt larvae to emerge from the sediment, combined with the ability to manage dewatering rates, would be useful to guide future dewatering events to minimize negative effects to lamprey.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2023

Comprehensive water-quality trend analysis for selected sites and constituents in the International Souris River Basin, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, Canada, and North Dakota, United States, 1970–2020

The Souris River Basin is an international basin in southeast Saskatchewan, north-central North Dakota, and southwest Manitoba. Sustained exceedances of water-quality objectives for total phosphorus, sodium, sulfate, total dissolved solids, and total iron have been reported since the late 1990s at the two binational sites on the Souris River (Souris River near Sherwood, North Dakota [U.S. Geological Survey station 05114000] and Souris River near Westhope, N. Dak. [U.S. Geological Survey station 05124000]). To understand conditions at the binational sites, it is important to understand water-quality changes on a basin-wide scale. Because streamflow is highly variable in the basin and changes in streamflow affect water-quality conditions, it is particularly important to use a trend-analysis method that accounts for changes in streamflow. Trends in water-quality concentrations can be affected by human-induced changes on the landscape or natural changes in land-runoff interactions that are driven by climate patterns and reflected by changes in streamflow (commonly referred to as “hydroclimatic variability”). In the primarily agricultural Souris River Basin, human-induced changes that are likely to affect trends are widespread changes in agricultural management such as fertilizer application, tilling practices, and crop types, as well as dam emplacement and artificial drainage. Around 1970, there was a long-term natural (hydroclimatic) change in the basin in which a significant transition from a dry climate state to a wet climate state resulted in higher streamflow in the basin. To assist the International Souris River Board in assessing current water-quality conditions in the Souris River Basin and exceedances of water-quality objectives at the binational sites, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the International Joint Commission, completed a comprehensive analysis for selected ions, nutrients, and trace metals for many sites in the basin that included descriptive water-quality statistics, trend analysis using a trend method that considers interannual hydroclimatic variability, and an assessment of exceedances of the water-quality objectives for the binational sites. Water-quality and streamflow or reservoir inflow or outflow data were compiled for 34 sites (30 stream sites and four reservoir sites) and 23 constituents with established water-quality objectives from 1970 to 2020 in the Souris River Basin and were used for descriptive statistics and water-quality trend analysis. Median total dissolved solids, sulfate, and sodium concentrations were low in the headwaters of the Souris River and some of the highest median concentrations were measured in the upper basin. At main-stem Souris River sites, all median sodium concentrations were greater than the binational water-quality objective. Median total phosphorus concentrations in the Souris River Basin were highest in the headwaters of the Souris River and all sites had median concentrations greater than the water-quality objective. Median total iron concentrations were highly variable across the basin, and for most main-stem sites, median concentrations were greater than or equal to the water-quality objective. During the recent period (2009–19), the annual flow-averaged concentrations of total dissolved solids and sulfate increased for nearly all stream sites with most sites having mildly significant or significant increases. One-half of the sites had an annual flow-averaged geometric mean concentration greater than the total dissolved solids water-quality objective, and four sites had sulfate increases greater than 100 milligrams per liter. Trends in annual flow-averaged concentrations of sodium and chloride generally were small and nonsignificant. Most sites had concentrations greater than the sodium water-quality objective, whereas all sites had concentrations much less than the chloride water-quality objective. Annual flow-averaged geometric mean concentration of total phosphorus decreased for nearly all sites across the Souris River Basin, but all sites had concentrations greater than the total phosphorus water-quality objective for the entire period. Small and nonsignificant changes in annual flow-averaged geometric mean concentration of total iron were detected at all sites but the binational site at Sherwood, N. Dak., and by 2019 all sites had concentrations greater than the total iron water-quality objective. For the reservoir sites, during 2000–15, mostly significant increases for total dissolved solids, sulfate, and sodium were detected, whereas changes in total phosphorus and total iron were mixed. During the historical period (1976–2019), large and consistent increases in total dissolved solids and sulfate have occurred since the late 1980s, with the largest increases and the most sites with mildly significant or significant increases generally occurring during the middle period (1988–2005). Large and significant or mildly significant increases in sodium concentrations occurred at eight of 10 sites in the middle period (1988–2005), and by the late period (2005–19) changes were small and nonsignificant. Similar to other basins in the region, such as the Red River of the North and Heart River, large and overall consistent increases since the late 1980s in total dissolved solids and sulfate in the Souris River Basin suggest that long-term natural (hydroclimatic) processes are large contributors to increases in the concentration of salts in streams and reservoirs associated with the onset of wetter conditions. The concurrent increases in sulfate and sodium concentrations at all sites during the middle period (1988–2005) suggest that sodium-sulfate evaporite dissolution may be a factor contributing to increases. Total phosphorus concentrations oscillated between increasing and decreasing during the historical period, with concentrations increasing during the first trend period (1976–88) and decreasing in the fourth trend period (2009–19) to the lowest flow-averaged geometric mean concentration by 2019 for most sites. During the historical period, changes in total iron concentrations were mostly nonsignificant and generally small, and variability in total iron concentrations likely affected the ability to detect statistically significant changes in concentration. The probability of exceeding the water-quality objective for total dissolved solids, sulfate, and sodium increased between 1976 and 2019 for the binational sites, especially for sulfate, which more than doubled for Souris River near Sherwood, N. Dak. and increased more than seven times for Souris River near Westhope, N. Dak. Total phosphorus and total iron concentrations for the binational sites were likely to exceed the water-quality objective for most of the year, but seasonal patterns of total phosphorus and total iron concentrations were different between the sites, suggesting that different factors may affect concentrations at different times of the year. For sodium, total phosphorus, and total iron, exceedance of the water-quality objective most of the time is not unexpected given that the flow-averaged geometric mean concentration for these three constituents for most sites across the basin are greater than the water-quality objective for most of the period. If natural processes are affecting total dissolved solids and sulfate concentrations, concentrations would be expected to vary with time, and as a result, extended periods of concentrations greater or less than the water-quality objective are likely to occur depending upon climatic conditions. A better understanding of the state of water quality across the Souris River Basin is beneficial to understanding and interpreting water-quality conditions at the two Souris River binational sites. The most consistent spatial and temporal change observed for this study was large and consistent increases in sulfate and total dissolved solids among tributary and main-stem sites since the late 1980s. For sulfate and total dissolved solids, wetter climatic conditions combined with naturally occurring and abundant sources of sulfate likely contributed to sustained exceedances of water-quality objectives in recent decades, and extended periods of concentrations greater than or less than the water-quality objective are likely to occur depending on climatic conditions. For sodium, total iron, and total phosphorus, sustained exceedances of the current water-quality objective likely will continue because most sites across the basin had flow-averaged geometric mean concentrations greater than the water-quality objective; and during the 43-year period of analysis, regardless of climatic conditions, exceedances were consistently greater than the water-quality objective. Further investigation into the factors causing increasing sulfate concentrations and a better understanding of reservoir dynamics would enhance the understanding of changes in water-quality conditions in the Souris River Basin. The basin-wide approach of this report provided an improved understanding of water-quality conditions in the Souris River Basin, and results can be used to inform the current water-quality objectives, inform potential changes to water management in the basin, and serve as a starting point for tracking future progress. Gaps in understanding of water-quality conditions can be closed through continued monitoring and further investigation into causes behind changes in water-quality conditions identified in this report.

Manitoba, North Dakota, Saskatchewan↗

USGS2023

Status and trends of pelagic and benthic prey fish populations in Lake Michigan, 2022

Fall bottom trawl (fall BT) and lakewide acoustic (AC) surveys are conducted annually to generate indices of pelagic and benthic prey fish densities in Lake Michigan. The fall BT survey has been conducted each fall since 1973 using 12-m trawls at depths ranging from 9 to 110 m at fixed locations distributed across seven transects; this survey estimates densities of seven prey fish species [i.e., Alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus), Bloater ( Coregonus hoyi ), Rainbow Smelt ( Osmerus mordax ), Deepwater Sculpin ( Myoxocephalus thompsonii ), Slimy Sculpin ( Cottus cognatus ), Round Goby ( Neogobius melanostomus ), Ninespine Stickleback ( Pungitius pungitius )] as well as age-0 Yellow Perch ( Perca flavescens ) and large (> 350 mm) Burbot ( Lota lota ). The AC survey has been conducted each late summer/early fall since 2004, and the 2022 survey consisted of 26 transects [570 km total (354 miles)] covering bottom depths ranging from 5 to 255 m and 37 midwater trawl tows above bottom depths ranging 5 to 232 m; this survey estimates densities of three prey fish species (i.e., Alewife, Bloater, and Rainbow Smelt). The data generated from these surveys are used to estimate various population parameters that are, in turn, used by state and tribal agencies in managing Lake Michigan fish stocks. In spring of 2022, an additional spring bottom trawl survey (spring BT) was implemented across six of the transects sampled in the fall and sites ranged in depth from 9 to 236 m. The goal of the spring BT was to explore seasonal differences in biomass density and distributions of key prey species, mostly notably Alewife. Total prey fish biomass density from the spring BT was 2.1 kg/ha. For the AC survey, total biomass density of prey fish equaled 6.2 kg/ha, 37% higher than the long-term average (2004-2021) of 4.5 kg/ha and 0.43 kg/ha higher than the 2021 estimate. For the fall BT, total biomass density of prey fish equaled 8.7 kg/ha, the highest value since 2013 and 21% higher than average value from 20042021 (6.8 kg/ha). The 2022 fall BT biomass density was still well below the average over the entirety of the time series (1973-2021; 34.3 kg/ha). Over the period both surveys have been conducted (2004-2021), total biomass density has trended downward in the fall BT (despite a high 2022 estimate) and remained relatively stable in the AC survey. Bloater was the dominant species (by biomass) among prey fishes in both the spring and fall BT, while the AC survey reported co-dominance of Bloater and Alewife. Mean biomass of yearling and older (YAO) Alewife was 0.38 kg/ha in the spring BT, 3.0 kg/ha in the AC survey, and 0.10 in the fall BT. Alewife were aggregated in deepwater habitats in the spring of 2022 (> 110 m). Since 2014, catchability of YAO Alewives for the fall BT has been substantially lower than the AC survey. Results of the 2022 spring BT do not suggest that catchability is substantially higher in the spring than the fall. Comparing the acoustic estimate to previous years, YAO Alewife biomass was 40% higher than the average from 2004-2021. An age-7 fish was recorded for the first time since 2009. Despite the rare catches of older fish, the Alewife age distribution still appears truncated, with age-1 fish as the most represented age class in all three surveys. Numeric density of age-0 Alewife from the AC survey was 7 fish/ha in 2022, which is the third lowest in the time series and well below the longterm mean of 452 fish/ha. Biomass density of large (≥120 mm) Bloater was 2.7 kg/ha in the AC survey and 4.4 kg/ha in the fall BT - each at least an order of magnitude lower than what was estimated by the fall BT between 1981 and 1998. Following a record high year in 2021 (1,037 fish/ha), the numeric density of small (<120 mm) Bloater was only 15 fish/ha in the AC survey. Meanwhile, small Bloater density estimated in the fall BT was 261 fish/ha, the highest value since 1990 and likely partially reflective of a large 2021 year-class. Biomass density of large Rainbow Smelt (≥90 mm) was 0.29 kg/ha in the AC survey and 0.12 kg/ha in the fall BT survey, continuing the trend of low Rainbow Smelt biomass that has been observed since 2001. Numeric density of small (<90 mm) Rainbow Smelt was 21 fish/ha in the AC survey and 2.7 fish/ha in the fall BT, indicating a weak year-class. All four prey fish species sampled only by the fall BT indicated below average biomass densities. Deepwater Sculpin biomass density was estimated at 0.41 kg/ha, which makes 12 of the past 13 years when biomass was <1 kg/ha. Slimy Sculpin was estimated at 0.10 kg/ha, the highest estimate since 2016 but still only 25% of the long-term average. Round Goby was estimated at 1.3 kg/ha, above the average biomass of 0.82 kg/ha since 2008 but similar to intermittent high values observed throughout the dataset. Ninespine Stickleback density was 1.5 fish/ha. Burbot biomass remained near record low levels, and no age-0 Yellow Perch were caught, indicating a weak Yellow Perch year-class in 2022.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2011

Simulating daily water temperatures of the Klamath River under dam removal and climate change scenarios

A one-dimensional daily averaged water temperature model was used to simulate Klamath River temperatures for two management alternatives under historical climate conditions and six future climate scenarios. The analysis was conducted for the Secretarial Determination on removal of four hydroelectric dams on the Klamath River. In 2012, the Secretary of the Interior will determine if dam removal and implementation of the Klamath Basin Restoration Agreement (KBRA) (Klamath Basin Restoration Agreement, 2010) will advance restoration of salmonid fisheries and is in the public interest. If the Secretary decides dam removal is appropriate, then the four dams are scheduled for removal in 2020. Water temperature simulations were conducted to compare the effect of two management alternatives: the no-action alternative where dams remain in place, and the action alternative where dam removal occurs in 2020 along with habitat restoration. Each management alternative was simulated under historical climate conditions (1961-2010) and six 50-year (2012-2061) climate scenarios. The model selected for the study, River Basin Model-10 (RBM10), was used to simulate water temperatures over a 253-mile reach of the Klamath River located in south-central Oregon and northern California. RBM10 uses a simple equilibrium flow model, assuming discharge in each river segment on each day is transmitted downstream instantaneously. The model uses a heat budget formulation to quantify heat flux at the air-water interface. Inputs for the heat budget were calculated from daily-mean meteorological data, including net shortwave solar radiation, net longwave atmospheric radiation, air temperature, wind speed, vapor pressure, and a psychrometric constant needed to calculate the Bowen ratio. The modeling domain was divided into nine reaches ranging in length from 10.8 to 42.4 miles, which were calibrated and validated separately with measured water temperature data collected irregularly from 1961 to 2010. Calibration root mean square errors of observed versus simulated water temperatures for the nine reaches ranged from 0.8 to 1.5 degrees C. Mean absolute errors ranged from 0.6 to 1.2 degrees C. For model validation, a k-fold cross-validation technique was used. Validation root mean square error and mean absolute error for the nine reaches ranged from 0.8 to 1.4 degrees C and 0.8 to 1.2 degrees C, respectively. Input data for the six future climate scenarios (2012-2061) were derived from historical hydrological and meteorological data and simulated meteorological output from five Global Circulation Models. Total Maximum Daily Loads or other regulatory processes that might reduce future water temperatures were not included in the simulations. Under the current climate conditions scenario, impacts of dam removal on water temperatures were greatest near Iron Gate Dam (near Yreka, California) and were attenuated in the lower reaches of the Klamath River. May and October simulated mean water temperatures increased and decreased by approximately 1-2 degrees C and 2-4 degrees C, respectively, downstream of Iron Gate Dam after dam removal. Dam removal also resulted in an earlier annual temperature cycle shift of 18 days, 5 days, and 2 days, near Iron Gate Dam, Scott River, and Trinity River, respectively. Although the magnitude of precipitation and air temperature change predicted by the five Global Circulation Models varied, all five models resulted in progressive incremental increases in water temperatures with each decade from 2012 to 2061. However, dam removal under KBRA appeared to delay the effects of climate change to some extent near Iron Gate Dam. With dam removal under KBRA, annual-mean water temperatures exceeded the 49-year historical mean temperature beginning in 2045; whereas with dams, annual-mean temperatures exceeded the historical mean beginning in 2025. Potential changes in seasonal water temperatures resulting from dam removal, with or without future climat

Open-File Report↗

USGS2024

Distribution, abundance, and breeding activities of the Least Bell's Vireo at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton, California—2021 annual report

Executive Summary The purpose of this report is to provide the Marine Corps with an annual summary of abundance, breeding activity, demography, and habitat use of endangered Least Bell’s Vireos ( Vireo bellii pusillus ) at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton (MCBCP or “Base”). Surveys for the Least Bell's Vireo were completed at MCBCP, California, between April 5 and July 13, 2021. Core survey areas and a subset of non-core areas in drainages containing riparian habitat suitable for vireos were surveyed three to four times. We detected 551 territorial male vireos and 26 transient vireos in core survey areas. An additional 98 territorial male vireos were detected in non-core survey areas. Transient vireos were detected on 8 of the 10 drainages/sites surveyed (core and non-core areas). Of the vireo territories in core areas, 89 percent were on the four most populated drainages, with the Santa Margarita River containing 70 percent of all territories in areas surveyed on Base. In core areas, 75 percent of male vireos were confirmed as paired; 76 percent of male vireos in non-core areas were confirmed as paired. The number of documented Least Bell’s Vireo territories in core survey areas on MCBCP decreased 18 percent from 2020 to 2021. The number of territories in all but two core survey area drainages decreased by one or more between 2020 and 2021. The decrease in vireo numbers on MCBCP (18 percent) was consistent with population changes in surrounding areas, including the lower San Luis Rey River (24-percent decrease) and the middle San Luis Rey River (6-percent decrease). Most core-area vireo territories (59 percent of males) were in willow ( Salix spp.) riparian habitat. An additional 7 percent of birds occupied willow habitat co-dominated by Western sycamores ( Platanus racemosa ) or Fremont cottonwoods ( Populus fremontii ). Of all the territories surveyed, 25 percent were in riparian scrub dominated by mule fat ( Baccharis salicifolia ) or sandbar willow ( S. exigua ). Upland scrub was used by 8 percent of vireos; 1 percent of vireo territories were in non-native vegetation, and less than 1 percent of vireo territories were in alder or drier habitats co-dominated by coast live oak ( Quercus agrifolia ) and sycamore. In 2019, MCBCP began operating an artificial seep along the Santa Margarita River; then, in 2021, two additional artificial seeps became operational. The artificial seeps pumped water to the surface starting in March and ending in August each year during daylight hours and were designed to increase the amount of surface water present to enhance Southwestern Willow Flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii extimus ) breeding habitat. Although this enhancement was designed to benefit flycatchers, few flycatchers have inhabited the seep areas within the past several years; therefore, vireos were selected as a surrogate species to determine effects of the habitat enhancement. This report presents the second year of analyses of vireo and vegetation response to the artificial seeps. We sampled vegetation in two Seep sites and two Reference sites to determine the effects of a new water diversion dam that was completed in 2019 and two seep pumps that were installed to enhance surface water along the Santa Margarita River in 2019 and 2021. We measured higher total vegetation cover below 2 meters (m) at Seep sites than at Reference sites and lower total vegetation cover above 5 m at Seep sites than at Reference sites. Native herbaceous cover was also higher below 4 m at Seep sites than at Reference sites. Woody cover was lower above 5 m at Seep sites than at Reference sites. Soil moisture did not differ between Seep and Reference sites. The U.S. Geological Survey has been color banding Least Bell’s Vireos on Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton since 1995. In 2021, we continued to color band and resight color banded Least Bell’s Vireos to evaluate adult site fidelity, between-year movement, and the effect of surface-water enhancement on vireo site fidelity and between-year movement. We banded 164 Least Bell's Vireos for the first time during the 2021 season. Birds banded included 3 adult vireos and 161 juvenile vireos. All adult vireos were banded with unique color combinations. The juvenile vireos (all nestlings) were banded with a single gold numbered federal band on the right leg. There were 52 Least Bell's Vireos banded before the 2021 breeding season that were resighted and identified on Base in 2021. Of these vireos, 45 were banded on Base, 6 were originally banded on the San Luis Rey River, and 1 was banded at Marine Corps Air Station, Camp Pendleton. Adult birds of known age ranged from 1 to at least 7 years old. Base-wide survival of vireos was affected by sex, age, and year. Males had a slightly but significantly higher survival rate than females. Adults had a higher survival rate than first-year vireos. Survival of both adults and first-year birds was high from 2007 to 2008 and from 2012 to 2013 and low from 2020 to 2021. The return rate of adult vireos to Seep or Reference sites ranged from 45 to 57 percent. Most returning adult vireos showed strong between-year site fidelity. Of the adults present in 2020 and 2021, 84 percent (94 percent of males; no females) returned to within 100 m of their previous territory. The average between-year movement for returning adult vireos was 0.1±0.2 kilometer (km). The average movement of first-year vireos detected in 2021 that fledged from a known nest on MCBCP in 2020 was 1.1±0.7 km. We monitored Least Bell's Vireo pairs to evaluate the effects of surface-water enhancement on nest success and breeding productivity. Vireos were monitored at two Seep sites and two Reference sites. Early in 2021, a seep was installed in a 2020 Reference site, which changed the status of this monitoring site from Reference to Seep. Nesting activity was monitored between April 5 and July 22 in 50 territories within the Seep and Reference sites (25 at Seep sites and 25 at Reference sites). All territories, except one, were occupied by pairs and all were fully monitored, meaning all nesting attempts were monitored at these territories. During the monitoring period, 97 nests (42 in Seep sites and 55 in Reference sites) were monitored. Breeding productivity was similar at the Seep site and Reference sites (3.6 and 3.4 young per pair, respectively), with 84 percent of Seep pairs and 88 percent of Reference pairs successfully fledging at least one young in 2021. Seep sites had a higher proportion of all eggs that hatched and also a higher proportion of nests with eggs that hatched than Reference sites. Seep sites and References sites had similar proportions of hatchlings that fledged and nests with hatchlings that fledged. According to the best model, daily nest survival in 2021 was higher in Seep sites than in Reference sites. Completed nests at the Seep site were more likely to be successful than nests at Reference sites in 2021. At Seep sites, 75 percent of nests fledged young, whereas 53 percent of nests at Reference successfully fledged young. Vireos at Reference sites had to expend more energy in extra nest-building and egg-laying to produce a similar number of young as vireos at Seep sites. Predation was believed to be the primary source of nest failure at both sites. Predation accounted for 100 percent and 83 percent of nest failures at Seep and Reference sites, respectively. Failure of the remaining nests was attributed to infertile eggs and other unknown causes. There were 11 plant species used as hosts for vireo nests in 2021. Successful vireo nests at Reference sites were further from the edge of host plants (closer to the center) and further from the edge of the nest plant clump than unsuccessful nests. Vireo nests at Seep sites were further from the edge of the host plant and the nest plant clump than vireo nests at Reference sites.

California↗