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Performance of several low-cost accelerometers

Several groups are implementing low‐cost host‐operated systems of strong‐motion accelerographs to support the somewhat divergent needs of seismologists and earthquake engineers. The Advanced National Seismic System Technical Implementation Committee (ANSS TIC, 2002), managed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with other network operators, is exploring the efficacy of such systems if used in ANSS networks. To this end, ANSS convened a working group to explore available Class C strong‐motion accelerometers (defined later), and to consider operational and quality control issues, and the means of annotating, storing, and using such data in ANSS networks. The working group members are largely coincident with our author list, and this report informs instrument‐performance matters in the working group’s report to ANSS. Present examples of operational networks of such devices are the Community Seismic Network (CSN; csn.caltech.edu), operated by the California Institute of Technology, and Quake‐Catcher Network (QCN; Cochran et al., 2009; qcn.stanford.edu; November 2013), jointly operated by Stanford University and the USGS. Several similar efforts are in development at other institutions. The overarching goals of such efforts are to add spatial density to existing Class‐A and Class‐B (see next paragraph) networks at low cost, and to include many additional people so they become invested in the issues of earthquakes, their measurement, and the damage they cause.

Seismological Research Letters↗

Leveraging deep learning in global 24/7 real-time earthquake monitoring at the National Earthquake Information Center

Machine‐learning algorithms continue to show promise in their application to seismic processing. The U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) is exploring the adoption of these tools to aid in simultaneous local, regional, and global real‐time earthquake monitoring. As a first step, we describe a simple framework to incorporate deep‐learning tools into NEIC operations. Automatic seismic arrival detections made from standard picking methods (e.g., short‐term average/long‐term average [STA/LTA]) are fed to trained neural network models to improve automatic seismic‐arrival (pick) timing and estimate seismic‐arrival phase type and source‐station distances. These additional data are used to improve the capabilities of the NEIC associator. We compile a dataset of 1.3 million seismic‐phase arrivals that represent a globally distributed set of source‐station paths covering a range of phase types, magnitudes, and source distances. We train three separate convolutional neural network models to predict arrival time onset, phase type, and distance. We validate the performance of the trained networks on a subset of our existing dataset and further extend validation by exploring the model performance when applied to NEIC automatic pick data feeds. We show that the information provided by these models can be useful in downstream event processing, specifically in seismic‐phase association, resulting in reduced false associations and improved location estimates.

Seismological Research Letters↗

Examining 22 years of ambient seismic wavefield at Mount St. Helens

An increase in seismic activity precedes most volcanic eruptions. Whereas event-based forecasting approaches have been successful, some eruptions remain unanticipated, resulting in casualties and damage. Our study leverages the recent advancements in ambient field seismology. We explore features extracted from continuous ambient fields using traditional methods, for example, peak ground velocity, peak ground acceleration, root mean square, root median square, real-time seismic amplitude measurement, and novel methods (displacement seismic amplitude ratio and spectral width). In addition, we explore unsupervised learning of higher order wavelet features using scattering networks. We find that combining all the methods was necessary to disentangle the effects of seismic sources from structural changes at Mount St. Helens. Although the ambient wavefield-based approach does not yield additional or more significant precursory signals than event-based methods at Mount St. Helens, our study demonstrates that the ambient wavefield provides supplementary information, mainly about structural changes and complements traditional methods. The ambient seismic wavefield offers additional insights into long-lasting processes. We find enhanced wave attenuation correlating with geochemical measurements. We interpret this as ongoing structural changes, such as dome growth or the evolution of the volcanic conduit system. On annual and decadal timescales, we interpret seasonal seismic attenuation in the shallow subsurface as groundwater fluctuations, corroborated by observations at the nearby Spirit Lake level. This multimethod approach at Mount St. Helens sheds light on a volcanic system’s underlying dynamics and structure.

Washington↗

How does the onset of offset influence geologic slip rates?

Geologic slip rates are typically based on the displacement accrued by a geomorphic or stratigraphic feature and the age of the offset feature. Because slip rates are commonly calculated by dividing the displacement of a faulted marker by its age, they contain two open time intervals: the elapsed time between the age of an offset feature and the age of the earthquake that displaced the feature, and the time between the present‐day and the most recent earthquake. Here, we explore the influence of including unconstrained open intervals in geologic slip rate calculations. We test the degree to which these open intervals affect geologic slip rates and their uncertainties, and we find that their influence depends primarily on mean earthquake recurrence intervals (RIs). Slip rates on faults with longer RIs, such as the Wasatch fault, can be greatly influenced by an increase of up to 20% when accounting for open intervals. In contrast, slip rates on faults with shorter RIs, such as the San Andreas fault, are only slightly influenced by the assumption that slip rates calculated over open intervals approximate those calculated over closed intervals. Our analyses indicate that faults with moderate slip rates (∼0.2–5 mm/yr) are sensitive to both open interval effects themselves, as well as methods to quantify and account for these effects. We re‐evaluate how slip rates are calculated and defined in displacement–time space using published deformation records. We explore the utility of assigning a probability distribution to the initiation of offset of the oldest faulted feature and the timing of the most recent earthquake (MRE). We find that calculating geologic slip rates without using probability distributions that capture the timing of the MRE and the onset of offset of the oldest faulted feature, especially on slow‐to‐moderate slip rate faults, can lead to systematic underestimation of average geologic slip rates.

Seismological Research Letters↗

Abiotic vs. biotic influences on habitat selection of coexisting species: Climate change impacts?

Species are commonly segregated along gradients of microclimate and vegetation. I explore the question of whether segregation is the result of microhabitat partitioning (biotic effects) or choice of differing microclimates (abiotic effects). I explored this question for four ground-nesting bird species that are segregated along a microclimate and vegetation gradient in Arizona. Birds shifted position of their nests on the microhabitat and microclimate gradient in response to changing precipitation over nine years. Similarly, annual bird abundance varied with precipitation across 12 yr. Those shifts in abundance and nesting microhabitat with changing precipitation demonstrate the importance of abiotic influences on bird distributions and habitat choice. However, nest-site shifts and microhabitat use also appear to be influenced by interactions among coexisting species. Moreover, shifts in habitat use by all species caused nest predation (i.e., biotic) costs that increased with increasing distance along the microclimate gradient. These results indicate that abiotic and biotic costs can strongly interact to influence microhabitat choice and abundances of coexisting species. Global climate change impacts have been considered largely in terms of simple distributional shifts, but these results indicate that shifts can also increase biotic costs when species move into habitat types for which they are poorly adapted or that create new biotic interactions.

Arizona↗

Stratigraphic architecture of bedrock reference section, Victoria Crater, Meridiani Planum, Mars

The Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity has investigated bedrock outcrops exposed in several craters at Meridiani Planum, Mars, in an effort to better understand the role of surface processes in its geologic history. Opportunity has recently completed its observations of Victoria crater, which is 750 m in diameter and exposes cliffs up to ~15 m high. The plains surrounding Victoria crater are ~10 m higher in elevation than those surrounding the previously explored Endurance crater, indicating that the Victoria crater exposes a stratigraphically higher section than does the Endurance crater; however, Victoria strata overlap in elevation with the rocks exposed at the Erebus crater. Victoria crater has a well-developed geomorphic pattern of promontories and embayments that define the crater wall and that reveal thick bedsets (3–7m) of large-scale cross-bedding, interpreted as fossil eolian dunes. Opportunity was able to drive into the crater at Duck Bay, located on the western margin of Victoria crater. Data from the Microscopic Imager and Panoramic Camera reveal details about the structures, textures, and depositional and diagenetic events that influenced the Victoria bedrock. A lithostratigraphic subdivision of bedrock units was enabled by the presence of a light-toned band that lines much of the upper rim of the crater. In ascending order, three stratigraphic units are named Lyell, Smith, and Steno; Smith is the light-toned band. In the Reference Section exposed along the ingress path at Duck Bay, Smith is interpreted to represent a zone of diagenetic recrystallization; however, its upper contact also coincides with a primary erosional surface. Elsewhere in the crater the diagenetic band crosscuts the physical stratigraphy. Correlation with strata present at nearby promontory Cape Verde indicates that there is an erosional surface at the base of the cliff face that corresponds to the erosional contact below Steno. The erosional contact at the base of Cape Verde lies at a lower elevation, but within the same plane as the contact below Steno, which indicates that the material above the erosional contact was built on significant depositional paleotopography. The eolian dune forms exposed in Duck Bay and Cape Verde, combined with the geometry of the erosional surface, indicate that these outcrops may be part of a larger-scale draa architecture. This insight is possible only as a result of the larger-scale exposures at Victoria crater, which significantly exceed the more limited exposures at the Erebus, Endurance, and Eagle craters.

Book chapter↗

Regional Crustal Structures and Their Relationship to the Distribution of Ore Deposits in the Western United States, Based on Magnetic and Gravity Data

Upgraded gravity and magnetic databases and associated filtered-anomaly maps of western United States define regional crustal fractures or faults that may have guided the emplacement of plutonic rocks and large metallic ore deposits. Fractures, igneous intrusions, and hydrothermal circulation tend to be localized along boundaries of crustal blocks, with geophysical expressions that are enhanced here by wavelength filtering. In particular, we explore the utility of regional gravity and magnetic data to aid in understanding the distribution of large Mesozoic and Cenozoic ore deposits, primarily epithermal and porphyry precious and base metal deposits and sediment-hosted gold deposits in the western United States cordillera. On the broadest scale, most ore deposits lie within areas characterized by low magnetic properties. The Mesozoic Mother Lodge gold belt displays characteristic geophysical signatures (regional gravity high, regional low-to-moderate background magnetic field anomaly, and long curvilinear magnetic highs) that might serve as an exploration guide. Geophysical lineaments characterize the Idaho-Montana porphyry belt and the La Caridad-Mineral Park belt (from northern Mexico to western Arizona) and thus indicate a deep-seated control for these mineral belts. Large metal accumulations represented by the giant Bingham porphyry copper and the Butte polymetallic vein and porphyry copper systems lie at intersections of several geophysical lineaments. At a more local scale, geophysical data define deep-rooted faults and magmatic zones that correspond to patterns of epithermal precious metal deposits in western and northern Nevada. Of particular interest is an interpreted dense crustal block with a shape that resembles the elliptical deposit pattern partly formed by the Carlin trend and the Battle Mountain-Eureka mineral belt. We support previous studies, which on a local scale, conclude that structural elements work together to localize mineral deposits within regional zones or belts. This study of mineral deposits of the western United States demonstrates the ability of magnetic and gravity data to elucidate the regional geologic framework or structural setting and to contribute in locating favorable environments for hydrothermal mineralization.

Economic Geology↗

Book review: New concepts and discoveries: the Geological Society of Nevada 2015 Symposium Proceedings

The Nevada Geological Society has a long history of convening meetings and workshops focused on the geology and metallogeny of the western United States relevant to the mineral exploration and mining community across the Great Basin. One outgrowth of the Geological Society of Nevada’s 2015 Symposium is a two-volume set, edited by W.M. Pennell and L.J. Garside, entitled New Concepts and Discoveries . The symposium was held in Sparks, Nevada, May 14–23, 2015, with more than 1,000 attendees, 59 talks in 10 thematic sessions, 7 field trips, and 10 short courses, all focused on serving the geologic, exploration, and mining community. The attractively produced, hardbound, two-volume set includes a CD-ROM containing all the manuscripts as well as numerous abstracts from presentations arranged by the thematic session in which they were presented. The papers range from detailed case study descriptions of individual deposits to important syntheses covering the geologic evolution and resulting metallogeny of the Great Basin and beyond.

Economic Geology↗

Beyond the obvious limits of ore deposits: The use of mineralogical, geochemical, and biological features for the remote detection of mineralization

Far field features of ore deposits include mineralogical, geochemical, or biological attributes that can be recognized beyond the obvious limits of the deposits. They can be primary, if formed in association with mineralization or alteration processes, or secondary, if formed from the interaction of ore deposits with the hydrosphere and biosphere. This paper examines a variety of far field features of different ore deposit types and considers novel applications to exploration and discovery. Primary far field features include mineral and rock chemistry, isotopic or element halos, fluid pathways and thermal anomalies in host-rock sequences. Examples include the use of apatite chemistry to distinguish intrusive rocks permissive for iron oxide copper gold (IOCG) and porphyry deposits; resistate mineral (e.g., rutile, tourmaline) chemistry in exploration for volcanogenic massive sulfide (VMS), orogenic gold, and porphyry deposits; and pyrite chemistry to vector toward sedimentary exhalative (sedex) deposits. Distinctive whole-rock geochemical signatures also can be recognized as a far field feature of porphyry deposits. For example, unique Sr/Y ratios in whole-rock samples, used to distinguish barren versus fertile magmas for Cu mineralization, result from the differentiation of oxidized hydrous melts. Anomalous concentrations of halogen elements (Cl, Br, and I) have been found for distances of up to 200 m away from some mineralized centers. Variations in isotopic composition between ore-bearing and barren intrusions and/or systematic vertical and lateral zonation in sulfur, carbon, or oxygen isotope values have been documented for some deposit types. Owing to the thermal aureole that extends beyond the area of mineralization for some deposits, detection of paleothermal effects through methods such as conodont alteration indices, vitrinite or bitumen reflectance, illite crystallinity, and apatite or zircon thermochronology studies also can be valuable, particularly for deposits with a low-temperature thermal history. A number of newly investigated secondary far field features include the development of reduced columns by electrochemical processes in transported overburden, geochemical dispersion related to the expulsion of groundwater from tectonic and seismic compression, dispersion of vapor above ore deposits, and geochemical dispersion related to biological processes. Redox gradients have been found between underlying reduced and overlying oxidized environments associated with sulfide bodies, which result in mass transfer through electro-chemical dispersion. Recent studies have characterized the pH, oxidation-reduction potential (ORP), and self potential (SP) in overburden overlying sulfide-hosted gold and VMS deposits. Lateral migration of metals in groundwater is well understood from normal groundwater flow, but the processes responsible for vertical mass transfer of groundwater and its dissolved components have been recognized only recently. One process, termed cyclical dilatancy pumping, expels groundwater during and after earthquake events, which can cause the redistribution of metals around deposits in some environments. Soil gases are of interest owing to their high degree of mobility through the vadose zone in transported overburden. Numerous soil gas species (CO2, O2, Hg, Rn, He, sulfur compounds, and light hydrocarbons) have been measured and interpreted as diagnostic of some buried mineral deposits, and some evidence suggests a possible link between vapor dispersion and metal enrichment in soil. Geochemical enrichment in plant material and soils through successive growth-death cycles is well established, but the important role of microorganisms is now increasingly evident. Microorganisms significantly enhance the kinetics of sulfide oxidation and influence the distribution of metals around ore deposits. The presence of metal-resistant bacteria and enhanced concentrations of sulfate-reducing bacteria in exotic overburd

Economic Geology↗

Secular variation in economic geology

The temporal pattern of ore deposits on a constantly evolving Earth reflects the complex interplay between the evolving global tectonic regime, episodic mantle plume events, overall changes in global heat flow, atmospheric and oceanic redox states, and even singular impact and glaciation events. Within this framework, a particular ore deposit type will tend to have a time-bound nature. In other words, there are times in Earth history when particular deposit types are absent, times when these deposits are present but scarce, times when they are abundant, and still other times for which we lack sufficient data. Understanding of such secular variation provides a critical first-order tool for exploration targeting, because rocks that have formed or were deformed during a certain time slice may be very permissive for a given deposit type, whereas identification of rocks of less favorable ages would help eliminate large areas during exploration programs. Secular analysis, therefore, is potentially a powerful tool for mineral resource assessment in poorly known terranes, providing a quick filter for favorability of a given deposit type using age of host rocks. Factors bearing on the known age distribution of a particular type of deposit include the following: (1) uneven preservation, (2) data gaps, (3) contingencies of plate motions, and (4) long-term secular changes in the Earth System. The present special issue of Economic Geology is focused on the latter factor, although all of these are interrelated. The selective preservation of certain mineral deposit types and the greater susceptibility for shallowly formed ores in tectonically active environments to be lost to erosion define a pattern that is superimposed on the secular formational trends (e.g., Groves et al., 2005a , b ; Kerrich et al., 2005 ). With improved geochronological methods and the availability of information on important mineral deposits from most parts of the world, data gaps for defining broad temporal distributions of ore types are becoming smaller. It has been increasingly recognized that ore deposit formation is also correlated with plate tectonic setting. Nevertheless, a complex Earth history of supercontinent assembly and breakup has led to the fragmentation of many Paleozoic and Precambrian mineral provinces. The use of plate reconstructions in economic geology, although extremely controversial and conjectural before the late Paleozoic, is critical for defining these provinces prior to the added complications resulting from post-ore plate motions. It is now well established that the temporal patterns of many types of mineral deposits (Fig. 1 1 ) reflect the formation or break-up of supercontinents and the preservation potential of deposits formed during these periods ( Barley and Groves, 1992 ; Titley, 1993 ; Kerrich et al., 2005 ; Goldfarb et al., 2009 ). Approximate time periods for such formation and break-up, respectively, include 2800–2500 and 2450–2100 Ma for Kenorland, 2100–1800 and 1600–1300 Ma for Nuna/Columbia, 1300–1100 and 850–600 Ma for Rodinia, and 600–300 Ma and 200–60 Ma for Gondwanaland-Pangea. A new supercontinent, Amasia, has begun to form during the past 250 m.y., thus overlapping Pangea break-up. Many of the formation-preservation patterns are themselves controlled by progressive cooling of Earth, the change from a mantle-plume buoyancy style to subduction-dominated tectonics, a decreasing buoyancy of the subcontinental lithospheric mantle, and depth of ore formation. In general, orogenic Au, volcanogenic massive sulfide (VMS), epithermal Au-Ag, and porphyry Cu±Au and Mo porphyry deposits form in active margins during periods of supercontinent assembly. Numerous other ore deposit types show an association with supercontinent formation, but develop inland of the active margin. These include many of the MVT Pb-Zn deposits and unconformity-type U deposits. The Tertiary Carlin-type deposits within the deformed shelf sequences along the North American craton margin also appear to have formed during the ongoing growth of Amasia. Those ores associated with periods of supercontinent breakup or attempted breakup are more difficult to define. They probably include diamond, Bushveld-type Ni-Cu-PGE, IOCG, and clastic-dominated Pb-Zn (or SEDEX) deposits in intracontinental areas of failed rifting, and other clastic-dominated Pb-Zn deposits in areas of actual breakup. In all cases, however, these temporal/spatial distributions are ultimately controlled by the secular character of Earth history.

Economic Geology↗

The area of influence of an exploratory hole

A method is presented for calculating the area of influence of exploratory drill holes by using the size and shape of resource targets. The solution presented is for elliptical and circular targets, but the method is applicable to any shaped target. The degree to which points have been explored depends upon their distance away from a drill hole and the possible orientations of the target. Several hypothetical examples demonstrate how: (1) maps can be generated that show the degree to which areas within the region of interest have been explored; (2) graphs can be constructed to evaluate the possibility of undiscovered targets of specific sizes and shapes in a region; (3) the sequence of physical exhaustion in a region can be used to make estimates of undiscovered resources.

Economic Geology↗

Esperance: Multiple episodes of aqueous alteration involving fracture fills and coatings at Matijevic Hill, Mars

In the search for evidence of past aqueous activity by the Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity, fracture-filling veins and rock coatings are prime candidates for exploration. At one location within a segment of remaining rim material surrounding Endeavour Crater, a set of “boxwork” fractures in an outcrop called Esperance are filled by a bright, hydrated, and highly siliceous (SiO 2 ~ 66 wt%) material, which has overall a montmorillonite-like chemical composition. This material is partially covered by patches of a thin, dark coating that is sulfate-rich (SO 3 ~ 21 wt%) but also contains significant levels of Si, Fe, Ca, and Mg. The simultaneous presence of abundant S, Si, and Fe indicates significant mineralogical complexity within the coating. This combination of vein and coating compositions is unlike previous analyses on Mars. Both materials are heterogeneously eroded, presumably by eolian abrasion. The evidence indicates at least two separate episodes of solute precipitation from aqueous fluids at this location, possibly widely separated in time. In addition to the implications for multiple episodes of alteration at the surface of the planet, aqueous chemical environments such as these would have been habitable at the time of their formation and are also favorable for preservation of organic material.

American Mineralogist↗

Discovering blind geothermal systems in the Great Basin Region: An integrated geologic and geophysical approach for establishing geothermal play fairways: All phases

Most geothermal resources in the Great Basin region of the western USA are blind, and thus the discovery of new commercial-grade systems requires synthesis of favorable characteristics for geothermal activity. The geothermal play fairway concept involves integration of multiple parameters indicative of geothermal activity to identify promising areas for new development. This project integrated multiple datasets to apply the play fairway concept and assess geothermal potential in a large region of the Great Basin in Nevada. It is therefore referred to as the Nevada play fairway project. This project was a strong collaborative effort between several organizations, led by the Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology at the University of Nevada, Reno, but with key support from the U.S. Geological Survey, ATLAS Geosciences, Inc,, Hi-Q Geophysical, Inc., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Utah Geological Survey, and Innovative Geothermal Ltd. In Budget Period 1 of this project, available data for nine geologic, geochemical, and geophysical parameters were initially synthesized to produce a new detailed geothermal potential map of 96,000 km2 from west-central to eastern Nevada (Figure 1). These parameters were grouped into subsets and individually weighted (Figure 2) to delineate rankings for local permeability, intermediate permeability, regional permeability, and thermal potential, which collectively defined geothermal play fairways (i.e., most likely locations for significant geothermal fluid flow). This initial work was aimed at reducing the risks in regional exploration and therefore facilitating discovery of new commercial-grade systems in blind settings, as well as in areas with surface expressions of geothermal activity. Budget Period 2 of the project involved detailed analysis of some of the most promising areas identified in Phase 1. Twenty-four highly prospective areas, including both known undeveloped systems and previously undiscovered potential blind systems, were identified for further analysis (Figures 3 and 4). After reconnaissance of these areas, five of the most promising sites were selected for detailed studies. Multiple techniques were employed in the detailed studies, including geologic mapping, shallow temperature surveys, gravity surveys, Lidar, geochemical studies, seismic reflection analysis, and 3D modeling. The goal of the detailed studies was to identify specific areas with the highest likelihood for high permeability and thermal fluids, such that drill sites could be targeted. Three main sets of predictive maps were generated for each detailed study area: 1) play fairway maps, 2) play fairway error maps, and 3) direct evidence maps. Local- and intermediate-scale permeability models were revised to reflect results of the detailed geologic, geophysical, and geochemical analyses. Budget Period 3 of the project involved more detailed geophysical analyses and temperature-gradient (TG) drilling in southeastern Gabbs Valley and northern Granite Springs Valley (Figure 4), deemed the two most promising sites, with the goal of providing preliminary validation of the play fairway methodology. In southeastern Gabbs Valley, the collocation of a favorable structural setting (displacement transfer zone and fault intersections), Quaternary faults, intersecting and terminating gravity gradients, magnetic low, shallow (2 m) temperature anomaly, low resistivity anomaly, and promising geothermometry from nearby water wells provided evidence for a blind system. Drilling of six TG holes defines an apparent geothermal system at this locality with temperatures as high as 124°C at 152 m. This system is blind, with no surface hot springs, fumaroles, or paleo-geothermal deposits. For northern Granite Springs Valley, a favorable structural setting (termination of a major Quaternary normal fault), terminating gravity gradient, magnetic gradient, newly discovered sinter deposits, nearby warm water wells, previously drilled TG holes in the vicinity, and promising geothermometry suggest a hidden system. Drilling of six new TG holes yields temperatures of ~96°C at ~250 m, suggesting the presence of a geothermal system. Major lessons learned in the course of this project include: 1) initially identified sites commonly include multiple favorable structural settings at a finer scale; 2) promising sites in Cenozoic basins cannot be recognized without detailed geophysical surveys; and 3) play fairway analysis should be refined as the exploration program vectors into the most promising sites and finer-scale data are acquired. In addition to producing copious amounts of data, this project resulted in 16 published papers, 10 abstracts, more than 40 presentations across the U.S. and abroad (including several keynote addresses), 2 Masters theses, and 7 media reports.

Nevada↗

Variations in growth of roseate tern (Sterna dougallii) chicks: II. Early growth as an index of parental quality

We measured growth of Roseate Tern (Sterna dougallii) chicks at a colony in Connecticut in 10 successive years. Data on body mass during the first three to four days of life were fitted to a quadratic regression model, yielding three parameters of early growth for each of 1,551 chicks: mass at hatching (Mo), linear growth (a) and quadratic growth (b). First chicks in each brood (A-chicks) exceeded second chicks (B-chicks) in each of the three growth parameters; A-chicks from broods of two grew faster than single chicks during the first three days. Mo depended on egg mass, hatch order, hatch date, and year. The linear coefficient (a) depended on hatch date, hatch order, and year, but not on egg mass or Mo. The quadratic coefficient (b) depended on a, hatch date, Mo, and hatch order. Subsequent growth and survival of chicks were predicted well by these parameters of early growth, with b contributing more to these predictions than Mo or a. After controlling for effects of early growth, none of the other variables measured (hatch date, egg mass, parental age, hatch interval between chicks, mass difference between chicks, female-female pairing, or trapping) contributed significantly to explaining later growth and survival. Year effects were substantial in only two of the 10 years of study. Individual pairs were consistent in performance (as indexed by chick growth) in successive years. These results suggest that growth and survival of Roseate Tern chicks are determined primarily by parental quality; much of the information about parental quality is expressed by the time the eggs are laid, and most of it is expressed by the time the chicks are three days old.

Condor↗

Great Lakes spatial priorities study

Spatial data about the bathymetry, habitat characteristics, underlying geology, and other features of the ocean and inland seas are essential for decision-making. Marine research and management organizations use these data to help ensure safe navigation, promote sustainable fisheries, extract energy, and protect marine habitats in the coastal and ocean waters of the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and Laurentian Great Lakes. Many of these organizations may have overlapping or shared mapping interests without knowing it. In a multi-jurisdictional planning environment, it can be challenging and cumbersome to determine where other entities have shared or overlapping mapping interests, especially across a transnational region such as the Great Lakes. State and provincial governments, federal governments, academia, tribes and First Nations, and other stakeholders from both the U.S. and Canada all have mapping interests across Great Lakes waters. Identifying and communicating target geographies for new data collection that are shared among multiple organizations can both help to avoid redundancy of new mapping efforts, and create opportunities for greater efficiency through collaboration. To address this issue, a spatial priorities study was conducted using a geospatial tool developed by the National Ocean Services National Centers for Coastal and Ocean Science (NCCOS). The tool provided an easy-to-use online interface in which programs can identify their priorities in a simple and straightforward way. This study asked representatives of Great Lakes management and science organizations to identify the areas for which they needed maps of lakebed features on a near-term, mid-term, and long-term timeframe, and why. Then, the responses were analyzed and overlaid to determine areas of shared mapping need and opportunity and to determine the types of map products needed. The analysis revealed high interest among multiple organizations in discrete geographies including the Minnesota and Wisconsin shoreline from Duluth to the eastern extent of the Bayfield Peninsula, Green Bay in Lake Michigan, and the southern coastlines of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, the St. Marys River, and the northern Lake Superior coastal waters near Grand Portage, MN. Lower priority mapping interest were distributed widely across all lakes, but tended to be concentrated in nearshore areas (<30 m depth). The analysis also indicated that the top mapping justifications were Habitat/biota/natural area, Benthic exploration, Commercial and recreational fishing, and Scientific research. The top desired map product types were Elevation, Substrate/sub-bottom geologic characterization, and Habitat map/characterization, although participants on some lakes noted other less prevalent product types. Following from previously conducted NOAA and non-NOAA Federal spatial prioritization exercises, the results of this regional focus can help mapping organizations better understand how their priorities align with the needs of regional organizations, allow for more efficient coordination and funding, and enable partners to leverage assets and resources to fill their most pressing data and information gaps across Great Lakes waters. The U.S. Mapping Coordination Site hosts the results of this study and other spatial prioritization studies. Through this website, one can interact with the study results along with recent and planned mapping efforts. NOAA intends to update their spatial priorities on a three- to five-year basis. Future studies should strive to expand participation of federal agencies, state and local governments, federally-recognized tribes, academia, and private industry (among other stakeholders) to seek out ocean mapping partnerships in conjunction with the National Ocean Mapping, Exploration and Characterization (NOMEC) goals map once, use many times.”

Great Lakes↗

Pilot framework for fish habitat assessments across tidal and non tidal waters in the Patuxent River Basin

As part of the 2014 Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement, all Bay States and the District of Columbia have committed to improving the condition of the Bay, which includes a goal to achieve sustainable fisheries. One outcome under that broad goal is improved effectiveness of fish habitat conservation and preservation efforts. In support of that outcome, the U.S. Geological Survey Eastern Ecological Science Center (USGS-EESC) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NOAA-NCCOS) are actively developing datasets, methods, and analyses to conduct fish habitat assessments in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, guided by recommendations from a regional stakeholder workshop held by the Chesapeake Bay Program’s (CBP) Fish Habitat Action Team (FHAT) in 2018. The joint USGS and NOAA team has been collaborating on methods for conducting inland and estuarine assessments and exploring whether a seamless headwater to estuary assessment could be developed. The goals of this assessment are to benefit both State and Federal fisheries managers, help advance fisheries science, and provide beneficial information for the public. While past national and regional assessments (e.g. the National Fish Habitat Partnership National Assessment) treated inland and estuarine fish habitat conditions separately due to differences in environments, GIS data representation, and data availability, a seamless habitat assessment could be of value for a broad range of stakeholders as many fish species, several of which are invasive or under federal jurisdiction, use habitats across both inland and estuarine waters. This project developed a pilot framework, explored and tested methods necessary for a finer scale, seamless assessment across both inland and estuarine waters, and demonstrated its use. Although there was interest by the CBP FHAT for the generation of a Baywide fish habitat assessment that spanned tidal salt, tidal fresh, warm non-tidal and cold non-tidal waters, there are a myriad of implementation details and considerations around conducting a Baywide assessment across all four of these general habitat areas. Therefore, the practical need to conduct a tributary-specific pilot assessment arose. At the beginning of this pilot process, members of the FHAT were presented with a decision matrix to choose a study basin using factors such as data availability and tributary size. FHAT members chose the Patuxent River basin, which has been relatively well sampled and studied. Several spatial frameworks were considered before selection of an inclusive gridded framework for summary and analysis that represented inland drainage networks and landscape influences as well as estuarine bathymetry. A suite of landscape and in-water stressor variables were summarized into the framework and were largely generalized over time. In order to assess the viability of the framework, we chose to use species distribution modeling for each of the species to test the framework’s ability to predict habitat use of non-tidal resident, estuarine resident, and migratory species. Tessellated darter (Etheostoma olmstedi), American eel (Anguilla rostrata), and white perch (Morone americana) were chosen as illustrative fish species based on data availability, and differences in life history and habitat use. A nested modeling approach, which involved successive model runs at multiple scales (1000m, 100m, and 10m raster grids) was developed to examine differences in variable importance at different spatial scales and to enhance modeling efficiency. For white perch, a complementary modeling analysis was performed for variables available only in estuarine waters. For all testing, an ensemble modeling approach was conducted, using a suite of potential statistical techniques driven by model strength and variable predictive power. The statistical testing that we conducted was intended only to test the framework and modeling approach, and not to definitively predict all habitats where specific fish species might be present. The modeling we conducted to test the framework did have some limitations. For example, the spatial distribution of favorable habitat areas for white perch was likely influenced by the predominance of fish survey locations near the center channel of the river and the use of generalized in-water conditions. For all species, the use of juvenile and adult fish survey data limits the estimation of habitat use to those life stages. Despite such limitations of the data inputs and modeling approach, we found the framework could seamlessly predict fish habitat distribution across freshwater and tidal environments and integrate the influence of landscape stressors with local in-water factors. The developed framework presented to the Sustainable Fisheries Goal Implementation Team (GIT) and FHAT is informative and could potentially be used for other modeling applications in the Chesapeake Bay watershed and elsewhere. In particular the framework and modeling approach lend themselves to evaluating living resource distributions and underlying habitat conditions in shallow tidal waters and beyond, as recommended by the recent Comprehensive Evaluation of System Response (CESR) report from the Chesapeake Bay Program.

Maryland↗

3D Converted wave reverse time migration imaging

We describe a newly developed method for recovering high-resolution images of seismic discontinuities, such as subducting slabs, in 3D. Our method makes use of converted S → P or P → S waves observed by dense arrays of seismometers to infer the locations and relative strengths of seismic discontinuities at depth in a target region. Observed direct and converted waves are backpropagated to their times of origin. The time-reversed wavefield is then separated into its constituent P and S components via the Helmholtz decomposition, and those separated wavefields are used to compute imaging functions that characterize the locations and relative strengths of seismic discontinuities. Imaging functions may be designed to use either S → P or P → S waves, so that users can target those arrivals expected to be most dominant in a given dataset. We have previously demonstrated the efficacy of our method in two dimensions, and we now present a 3D implementation of our technique which addresses the significant computational challenges posed by the size of volumetric wavefield data in three dimensions. Through a series of synthetic examples, we demonstrate that our method is capable of recovering the fine scale structure of a subducting slab given realistic station coverage and earthquake sources. We investigate optimal seismic station geometries for our technique and explore image interpretability in regions with poor data coverage. We find that linear station geometries yield more optimal, interpretable imaging functions than collections of small arrays can. We also show that our method can successfully recover bothS → P or P → S images when realistic shear earthquake sources are used, and we explore the additional computational challenges presented by the high frequency content of S waves. Our results demonstrate the potential for our technique to recover high-resolution information about subducting slabs in real-world regions, given that relatively sparse seismic arrays with only approximately 100 stations are capable of recovering interpretable imaging functions from just a few realistic earthquake sources for multiple discontinuities at significant depth in an area of approximately 400~sq~km.

Seismica↗

Geologic history of Cape Cod, Massachusetts

Cape Cod, a sandy peninsula built mostly during the Ice Age, juts into the Atlantic Ocean like a crooked arm. Because of its exposed location, Cape Cod was visited by many early explorers. Although clear-cut evidence is lacking, the Vikings may have sighted this land about 1,000 years ago. It was visited by Samuel de Champlain in 1605, and his detailed descriptions and charts have helped present-day scientists to determine the rate of growth of Nauset Beach marsh and Nauset spit. Bartholomew Gosnold, a lesser known explorer, settled for a short time on the Elizabeth Islands to the southwest and gave Cape Cod its name in 1602. The Pilgrims first landed in America on the tip of Lower Cape Cod after they were turned back from their more southerly destination by shoals between Cape Cod and Nantucket Island. On Cape Cod they found potable water and food and had their first fight with the natives. The Pilgrims, however, decided that this land was too isolated, too exposed, and too sandy to support them, and they sailed across Cape Cod Bay to establish Plymouth. These features remain today. Small villages are separated by large areas of forest, dune, beach, and marsh. This unspoiled natural beauty makes Cape Cod one of the most favored vacation areas for the people living in the thickly settled Northeastern States. Cape Cod is of particular interest to geologists because it was formed by glaciers very recently in terms of geologic time. During the Great Ice Age, (the Pleistocene Epoch which began 2 to 3 million years ago), glaciers advanced from the north into the temperate regions of the Earth. Glacial ice covered the land at least four times. Each advance was accompanied by a worldwide lowering of sea level because the source of the ice was water from the seas. When the glaciers melted, the climate and sea level were probably much like they are today. In fact, some scientists believe that the Earth is presently between glacial episodes and that ice once again will advance across the land.

Massachusetts↗