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At least 1,279 records · Page 71Linked to original sources

USGS2015

Interpretation of S waves generated by near-surface chemical explosions at SAFOD

A series of near-surface chemical explosions conducted at the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (SAFOD) were recorded by high-frequency downhole receiver arrays in separate experiments in November 2003 and May 2005. The 2003 experiment involved &sim;100  kg shots detonated along a 46-km-long line (Hole–Ryberg line) centered on SAFOD and recorded by 32 three-component geophones in the pilot hole between 0.8 and 2.0 km depth. The 2005 experiment involved &sim;36  kg shots detonated at Parkfield Area Seismic Observatory (PASO) stations (at &sim;1–8  km offset) recorded by 80 three-component geophones in the main hole between the surface and 2.4 km depth. These data sample the downgoing seismic wavefield and constrain the shallow velocity and attenuation structure, as well as the first-order characteristics of the source. Using forward modeling on a velocity structure designed for the near field, both observed P - and S -wave energy for the PASO shots are identified with the travel times expected for direct and/or reflected phases. Larger-offset recordings from shots along the Hole–Ryberg line reveal substantial SV and SH energy, especially southwest of SAFOD from the source as indicated by P -to- S amplitude ratios. The generated SV energy is interpreted to arise chiefly from P -to- S conversions at subhorizontal discontinuities. This provides a simple mechanism for often-observed low P -to- S amplitude ratios from nuclear explosions in the far field, as originating from strong near-field wave conversions.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2016

Earthquake source properties from pseudotachylite

The motions radiated from an earthquake contain information that can be interpreted as displacements within the source and therefore related to stress drop. Except in a few notable cases, the source displacements can neither be easily related to the absolute stress level or fault strength, nor attributed to a particular physical mechanism. In contrast paleo-earthquakes recorded by exhumed pseudotachylite have a known dynamic mechanism whose properties constrain the co-seismic fault strength. Pseudotachylite can also be used to directly address a longstanding discrepancy between seismologically measured static stress drops, which are typically a few MPa, and much larger dynamic stress drops expected from thermal weakening during localized slip at seismic speeds in crystalline rock [Sibson, 1973; McKenzie and Brune, 1969; Lachenbruch, 1980; Mase and Smith, 1986; Rice, 2006] as have been observed recently in laboratory experiments at high slip rates [Di Toro et al., 2006a]. This note places pseudotachylite-derived estimates of fault strength and inferred stress levels within the context and broader bounds of naturally observed earthquake source parameters: apparent stress, stress drop, and overshoot, including consideration of roughness of the fault surface, off-fault damage, fracture energy, and the 'strength excess'. The analysis, which assumes stress drop is related to corner frequency by the Madariaga [1976] source model, is restricted to the intermediate sized earthquakes of the Gole Larghe fault zone in the Italian Alps where the dynamic shear strength is well-constrained by field and laboratory measurements. We find that radiated energy exceeds the shear-generated heat and that the maximum strength excess is ~16 MPa. More generally these events have inferred earthquake source parameters that are rate, for instance a few percent of the global earthquake population has stress drops as large, unless: fracture energy is routinely greater than existing models allow, pseudotachylite is not representative of the shear strength during the earthquake that generated it, or unless the strength excess is larger than we have allowed.

Gole Larghe fault zone↗

USGS1989

An exact anelastic model for the free-surface reflection of P and S-I waves

Exact anelastic solutions incorporating inhomogeneous waves are used to model numerically S -I and P waves incident on the free surface of a low-loss anelastic half-space. Anelastic free-surface reflection coefficients are computed for the volumetric strain and displacement components of inhomogeneous wave fields. For the problem of an incident homogeneous S -I wave in Pierre shale, the largest strain and displacement amplitudes for the reflected P wave occur at angles of incidence for which the particle motion for the reflected inhomogeneous P wave is elliptical (minor/major axis = 0.6), the specific absorption ( Q P −1 ) is greater (300 per cent) and the velocity is less (25 per cent) than those for a corresponding homogeneous P wave, the direction of phase propagation is not parallel to the free surface, and the amplitude of the wave shows a significant increase with depth (6 per cent in one wavelength). Energy reflection coefficients computed for this low-loss anelastic model show that energy flow due to interaction of the incident and reflected waves reach maxima (30 per cent of the incident energy) near large but nongrazing angles of incidence. For the problem of an incident homogeneous P wave in Pierre shale, the inhomogeneity of the reflected S wave is shown not to contribute to significant variations in wave field characteristics over those that would be expected for a homogeneous wave.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS1989

On the use of volumetric strain meters to infer additional characteristics of short-period seismic radiation

Volumetric strain meters (Sacks-Evertson design) are installed at 15 sites along the San Andreas fault system, to monitor long-term strain changes for earthquake prediction. Deployment of portable broadband, high-resolution digital recorders (GEOS) at several of the sites extends the detection band for volumetric strain to periods shorter than 5 × 10 −2 sec and permits the simultaneous observation of seismic radiation fields using conventional short-period pendulum seismometers. Simultaneous observations establish that the strain detection bandwidth extends from periods greater than 10 7 seconds to periods near 5 × 10 −2 sec with a dynamic range exceeding 140 dB. Measurements of earth-strain noise for the period band, 10 7 to 10 −2 sec, show that ground noise, not instrument noise, currently limits the measurement of strain over a bandwidth of more than eight orders of magnitude in period. Comparison of the short-period portion of earth-strain, noise spectra (20 to 5 × 10 −2 sec) with average spectra determined from pendulum seismometers, suggest that observed noise is predominantly dilatational energy. Recordings of local and regional earthquakes indicate that dilatometers respond to P energy but not direct shear energy and that straingrams can be used to resolve superimposed reflected P and S waves for inference of wave characteristics not permitted by either sensor alone. Simultaneous measurements of incident P - and S -wave amplitudes are used to introduce a technique for single-station estimates of wave field inhomogeneity, free-surface reflection coefficients and local material P velocity. Estimates of these parameters derived for the North Palm Springs earthquake ( M w 5.9) respectively for an incident P wave of 29° are −85°, 1.71, 2.9 km/sec, and for an incident S wave of 17° are 79°, 0.85, 2.9 km/sec. The empirical estimates of reflection coefficients are consistent with model estimates derived using an anelastic half-space model with incident inhomogeneous wave fields.

California↗

USGS1994

Local observations of the onset of a large earthquake: 28 June 1992 Landers, California

The Landers earthquake ( M W 7.3) of 28 June 1992 had a very emergent onset. The first large amplitude arrivals are delayed by about 3 sec with respect to the origin time, and are preceded by smaller-scale slip. Other large earthquakes have been observed to have similar emergent onsets, but the Landers event is one of the first to be well recorded on nearby stations. We used these recordings to investigate the spatial relationship between the hypocenter and the onset of the large energy release, and to determine the slip function of the 3-sec nucleation process. Relative location of the onset of the large energy release with respect to the initial hypocenter indicates its source was between 1 and 4 km north of the hypocenter and delayed by approximately 2.5 sec. Three-station array analysis of the P wave shows that the large amplitude onset arrives with a faster apparent velocity compared to the first arrivals, indicating that the large amplitude source was several kilometers deeper than the initial onset. An M L 2.8 foreshock, located close to the hypocenter, was used as an empirical Green's function to correct for path and site effects from the first 3 sec of the mainshock seismogram. The resultant deconvolution produced a slip function that showed two subevents preceding the main energy release, an M W 4.4 followed by an M W 5.6. These subevents do not appear anomalous in comparison to simple moderate-sized earthquakes, suggesting that they were normal events which just triggered or grew into a much larger earthquake. If small and moderate-sized earthquakes commonly “detonate” much larger events, this implies that the dynamic stresses during earthquake rupture are at least as important as long-term static stresses in causing earthquakes, and the prospects of reliable earthquake prediction from premonitory phenomena are not improved.

California↗

USGS2008

Restoring piscivorous fish populations in the Laurentian Great Lakes causes seabird dietary change

Ecosystem change often affects the structure of aquatic communities thereby regulating how much and by what pathways energy and critical nutrients flow through food webs. The availability of energy and essential nutrients to top predators such as seabirds that rely on resources near the water's surface will be affected by changes in pelagic prey abundance. Here, we present results from analysis of a 25-year data set documenting dietary change in a predatory seabird from the Laurentian Great Lakes. We reveal significant declines in trophic position and alterations in energy and nutrient flow over time. Temporal changes in seabird diet tracked decreases in pelagic prey fish abundance. As pelagic prey abundance declined, birds consumed less aquatic prey and more terrestrial food. This pattern was consistent across all five large lake ecosystems. Declines in prey fish abundance may have primarily been the result of predation by stocked piscivorous fishes, but other lake-specific factors were likely also important. Natural resource management activities can have unintended consequences for nontarget ecosystem components. Reductions in pelagic prey abundance have reduced the capacity of the Great Lakes to support the energetic requirements of surface-feeding seabirds. In an environment characterized by increasingly limited pelagic fish resources, they are being offered a Hobsonian choice: switch to less nutritious terrestrial prey or go hungry. ?? 2008 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecology↗

USGS1992

Holocene coastal development on the Florida peninsula

The Florida peninsula contains five distinct coastal sections, each resulting from its own spectrum of coastal processes and sediment availability during a slowly rising, late Holocene sea level. The east coast barrier system is wave-dominated and has a large cuspate foreland (Cape Canaveral) near its middle. The Florida Keys and reef tract represent the only coastal carbonate system in the continental United States. An open-marine mangrove coast characterizes the low-energy, tide-dominated southwest part of the State. The central Gulf barrier system displays a mixed-energy morphology in a microtidal, low-energy setting. The open-coast marsh system of the Big Bend area that is north of the barrier system is also tide dominated, and is developed on a sediment-starved carbonate platform. The oldest preserved coastal Holocene section is the Florida Keys area where, at about 6 to 8 ka, sequences accumulated during the Holocene. Most of the remainder of the peninsular coast is characterized by terrigenous sequences less than 3 ka. The younger sequences accumulated almost exclusively from reworking of older strata without benefit of additional sediment supply from land.

Florida↗

USGS2005

Quaternary geomorphology and modern coastal development in response to an inherent geologic framework: An example from Charleston, South Carolina

Coastal landscapes evolve over wide-ranging spatial and temporal scales in response to physical and biological processes that interact with a wide range of variables. To develop better predictive models for these dynamic areas, we must understand the influence of these variables on coastal morphologies and ultimately how they influence coastal processes. This study defines the influence of geologic framework variability on a classic mixed-energy coastline, and establishes four categorical scales of spatial and temporal influence on the coastal system. The near-surface, geologic framework was delineated using high-resolution seismic profiles, shallow vibracores, detailed geomorphic maps, historical shorelines, aerial photographs, and existing studies, and compared to the long- and short-term development of two coastal compartments near Charleston, South Carolina. Although it is clear that the imprint of a mixed-energy tidal and wave signal (basin-scale) dictates formation of drumstick barriers and that immediate responses to wave climate are dramatic, island size, position, and longer-term dynamics are influenced by a series of inherent, complex near-surface stratigraphic geometries. Major near-surface Tertiary geometries influence inlet placement and drainage development (island-scale) through multiple interglacial cycles and overall channel morphology (local-scale). During the modern marine transgression, the halo of ebb-tidal deltas greatly influence inlet region dynamics, while truncated beach ridges and exposed, differentially erodable Cenozoic deposits in the active system influence historical shoreline dynamics and active shoreface morphologies (block-scale). This study concludes that the mixed-energy imprint of wave and tide theories dominates general coastal morphology, but that underlying stratigraphic influences on the coast provide site-specific, long-standing imprints on coastal evolution.

Journal of Coastal Research↗

USGS2010

Predictions of turbidity due to enhanced sediment resuspension resulting from sea-level rise on a fringing Coral Reef: Evidence from Molokai, Hawaii

Accelerating sea-level rise associated with global climate change will affect sedimentary processes on coral reefs and other shoreline environments by increasing energy and sediment resuspension. On reefs, sedimentation is known to increase coral stress and bleaching as particles that settle on coral surfaces interfere with photosynthesis and feeding, and turbidity induced by suspended sediment reduces incident light levels. Using relationships developed from observations of wave orbital velocity, water-surface elevation, and suspended-sediment concentration on a fringing reef flat of Molokai, Hawaii, predictions of the average daily maximum in suspended-sediment concentration increase from ~11 mg/l to ~20 mg/l with 20 cm sea-level rise. The duration of time concentrations exceeds 10 mg/l increases from 9 to 37. An evaluation of the reduction of wave energy flux through breaking and frictional dissipation across the reef flat shows an increase of ~80 relative to the present will potentially reach the shoreline as sea level increases by 20 cm. Where the shoreline exists on low, flat terrain, the increased energy could cause significant erosion of the shoreline. Considering the sediment budget, the sediment flux is predicted to increase and removal of fine-grained sediment may be expedited on some fringing reefs, and sediment in storage on the inner reef could ultimately be reduced. However, increased shoreline erosion may add sediment and offset removal from the reef flat. The shifts in sediment availability and transport that will occur as result of a modest increase in sea level have wide application to fringing coral reefs elsewhere, as well as other shoreline environments. ?? 2010 the Coastal Education & Research Foundation (CERF).

Journal of Coastal Research↗

USGS1999

Liquefaction evidence for at least two strong Holocene paleo-earthquakes in central and southwestern Illinois, USA

Two strong mid-Holocene earthquakes in Illinois have been documented by paleoliquefaction features such as clastic dikes, sills, and detachments of fine-grained sediment that sunk into liquefied sand. At least one paleo-earthquake occurred in central Illinois about 35 km NE of Springfield, probably sometime between 5,900 and 7,400 yr BP. Dike widths are as much as 0.4 m near the energy center of the earthquake. Outward from this center, dike widths attenuate and ultimately disappear at about 35 km. More than one paleo-earthquake is probably represented by liquefaction features near Springfield. Another paleo-earthquake that appears to have been centered about 65 km ESE of St. Louis, Missouri, occurred near 5,700 yr BP. The energy center is inferred as being in Illinois, and most likely near lowermost Shoal Creek where the meizoseismal region is defined by dikes as wide as 0.5 m and by a regional abundance of dikes. Dikes from this earthquake probably extend at least as far as 35 km from its inferred energy center. The earthquake near Shoal Creek and one earthquake near Springfield almost certainly exceeded M 6. The paleomagnitudes can be more closely bracketed by geotechnical testing and analysis, when used in conjunction with existing data.

Illinois↗

USGS2022

Assessing global geologic carbon dioxide storage resources

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Energy (U.S. DOE) Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM), the IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme (IEAGHG), and the Clean Energy Ministerial Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage Initiative (CEM-CCUS Initiative), plans to work with partner nations to assess geologic carbon dioxide (CO2) storage resources globally. The goal of this work is to help countries, particularly those with emerging economies, understand the mass of CO2 they could potentially store in geologic units within their borders. Knowledge of the CO2 storage resources in their geologic units can provide countries pathways for reducing emissions to meet their future climate mitigation goals.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2010

Sage-grouse habitat selection during winter in Alberta

Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) are dependent on sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) for food and shelter during winter, yet few studies have assessed winter habitat selection, particularly at scales applicable to conservation planning. Small changes to availability of winter habitats have caused drastic reductions in some sage-grouse populations. We modeled winter habitat selection by sage-grouse in Alberta, Canada, by using a resource selection function. Our purpose was to 1) generate a robust winter habitat-selection model for Alberta sage-grouse; 2) spatially depict habitat suitability in a Geographic Information System to identify areas with a high probability of selection and thus, conservation importance; and 3) assess the relative influence of human development, including oil and gas wells, in landscape models of winter habitat selection. Terrain and vegetation characteristics, sagebrush cover, anthropogenic landscape features, and energy development were important in top Akaike's Information Criterionselected models. During winter, sage-grouse selected dense sagebrush cover and homogenous less rugged areas, and avoided energy development and 2-track truck trails. Sage-grouse avoidance of energy development highlights the need for comprehensive management strategies that maintain suitable habitats across all seasons. ?? 2010 The Wildlife Society.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS1981

Populations, feeding ecology and molt of Steller's Eiders

This study considers the temporal and spatial distribution of Steller's Eiders ( Polysticta stelleri ) during molt along the north side of the Alaska Peninsula from Port Heiden to Bechevin Bay. Subadult eiders molted primarily at Nelson Lagoon, adult males at Nelson Lagoon and Izembek Bay, and adult females primarily at Izembek Bay. Only a few eiders used Bechevin Bay, Seal Islands, and Port Heiden. Although the flightless period overlapped among different age and sex classes, subadults were flightless first, then adult males, and last, adult females. Eiders maintained spatial and temporal separation during the flightless period, thereby reducing competition for food resources. Eiders at Nelson Lagoon were observed feeding only by head-dipping during the pre-flightless period in 1979, a significant change from 1977 when they fed both by diving and dipping. During both 1977 and 1979 eiders foraged for approximately equal amounts of time during each stage of molt. Foods consisted primarily of bivalve mollusks and amphipods. These foods were consumed in different proportions before and after the wing-feather molt, with mussels being most important when eiders were growing remiges. Comparisons between the amount of energy in blue mussels ( Mytilus edulis ), clams ( Macoma balthica ), and gammarid amphipods showed that mussels yield the most energy per gram of whole wet weight. Apparently Steller's Eiders have adjusted to the increased energy demands of molt by eating invertebrates with high caloric content, rather than by increasing the amount of time feeding.

Alaska↗

USGS1998

Thermally induced chronic developmental stress in coho salmon: Integrating measures of mortality, early growth and fluctuating asymmetry

Developmental stability, or homeostasis, facilitates the production of consistent phenotypes by buffering against stress. Fluctuating asymmetry is produced by developmental instability and is manifested as small random departures from bilateral symmetry. Increased fluctuating asymmetry is thought to parallel compromised fitness, in part, because stress promotes energy dissipation. Compensatory energy expenditures within the organism are required to complete development, thus promoting instability through reductions in homeostasis. Increased heterozygosity may enhance developmental stability by reducing energy dissipation from stress through increased metabolic efficiency, possibly by providing greater flexibility in metabolic pathways. Traditionally, fluctuating asymmetry has been used as a bioindicator of chronic stress, provided that selective mortality of less fit individuals did not reduce stress-mediated increases in fluctuating asymmetry to background levels produced by natural developmental error, or create data inconsistencies such as higher asymmetry in groups exposed to lower stress. Unfortunately, absence of selective mortality and its effects, while often assumed, can be difficult to substantiate. We integrated measures of early growth, mortality, fluctuating asymmetry (mandibular pores, pectoral finrays, pelvic finrays, and gillrakers on the upper and lower arms of the first branchial arch) and directional asymmetry (branchiostegal rays) to assess chronic thermal stress (fluctuating temperatures as opposed to ambient temperatures) in developing eggs from two different coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) stocks and their reciprocal hybrids. Hybridization provided insight on the capacity of heterozygosity to reduce stress during development. Although egg losses were consistently higher in crosses exposed to fluctuating temperatures, egg mortality was predominantly a function of maternal stock of origin. Post-hatch losses were higher in crosses exposed to ambient temperatures than in crosses exposed to fluctuating temperatures during embryogenesis. Observed patterns of early growth revealed no heterosis, but instead reflected maternal effects, with some crosses slowing growth and yolk utilization when exposed to fluctuating temperatures. Analyses of fluctuating asymmetry also showed no effects from heterosis. While analyses of composite asymmetry scores and branchiostegal rays were inconclusive, analyses of individual characters showed significantly higher fluctuating asymmetry in pelvic finray counts and a marginal change in the numbers of fish asymmetric for this character in crosses exposed to chronic thermal stress. In contrast, the fluctuating asymmetry in lower gillraker counts was significantly higher in crosses exposed to ambient temperatures and there were significantly more fish asymmetric for this character. Data on mortalities and fluctuating asymmetry indicate pelvic finray development was thermally stressed, while the heightened fluctuating asymmetry in lower gillraker counts under ambient temperatures was due to a greater frequency of less fit fish that had not been culled by thermal stress. Changes in early growth patterns in response to developmental stress yielded no parallel responses in meristic characters. We conclude that chronic thermal stress produced both selectively lethal and sublethal effects that directly shaped fluctuating asymmetry and fitness profiles in these crosses. Implicit in this conclusion is that developmental instability analyses can detect more than just chronic sublethal stress, thus providing substantial credence for using instability studies as proactive bioassessment methodologies.

Oikos↗

USGS2000

Effect of hibernation and reproductive status on body mass and condition of coastal brown bears

We investigated the effect of hibernation and reproductive status on changes in body mass and composition of adult female brown bears (Ursus arctos) on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska. This information is fundamental to understanding nutritional ecology of wild brown bear populations. Six adult females handled in the fall and following spring (paired samples) lost 73 ± 22 kg (x̄ ± SD; 32 ± 10%) of fall body mass over 208 ± 19 days. Of this mass loss, 56 ± 22% (55 ± 22 kg) was lipid and 44 ± 22% (43 ± 21 kg) was lean body mass. Catabolism of lipid stores accounted for 88.4 ± 8.1% of the body energy used to meet maintenance demands. Overwinter differences in body composition of adult females assessed only once in either the fall (n = 21) or spring (n = 32) were similar to those of paired samples. Relative fatness of bears entering the den was positively related to the contribution of fat (%) to body mass (P < 0.01) and body energy (P < 0.01) losses during hibernation. Thus, relative fatness at the onset of fasting influences the relative proportion of lipid stores and lean body mass catabolized to meet protein and energy demands during hibernation. In the spring, lone females had greater body and lean masses than females with cubs of the year or yearlings. Lipid content was greatest in lone females in the fall. Studies using body mass and composition as indices of population health should consider season or reproductive class.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS1990

Solid-solution aqueous-solution equilibria: Thermodynamic theory and representation

Thorstenson and Plummer's (1977) "stoichiometric saturation' model is reviewed, and a general relation between stoichiometric saturation Kss constants and excess free energies of mixing is derived for a binary solid-solution B1-xCxA: GE = RT[ln Kss - xln(xKCA) - (l-x)ln((l-x)KBA)]. This equation allows a suitable excess free energy function, such as Guggenheim's (1937) sub-regular function, to be fitted from experimentally determined Kss constants. Solid-phase free energies and component activity-coefficients can then be determined from one or two fitted parameters and from the endmember solubility products KBA and KCA. A general form of Lippmann's (1977,1980) "solutus equation is derived from an examination of Lippmann's (1977,1980) "total solubility product' model. Lippmann's II or "total solubility product' variable is used to represent graphically not only thermodynamic equilibrium states and primary saturation states but also stoichiometric saturation and pure phase saturation states.

American Journal of Science↗

USGS1981

United States Geological Survey Yearbook, fiscal year 1980

It is not very often that a single event is so overwhelming that it changes public perceptions of natural hazards for generations. Perhaps for the U.S. Geological Survey, the explosive volcanic activity of Mount St. Helens began such a change. After 101 years of careful science of the Earth's past and meticulous observations and assessments of the present, predictive earth science was in full public view. However vague and faint the glimpse of the future made possible by earth science, it was enough. Warnings were issued, thousands of lives were saved, and the age of real-time geology began. The Survey's basic mission has not changed, but the power of our analytical tools has increased by several orders of magnitude. The Survey's efforts to understand Earth processes and hydrologic principles continued with the collection, during fiscal year 1980, of valuable new data on the geologic origin and framework, seismicity, and mineral and energy resources of the United States. The Survey is also responsible for classification of the leasable minerals on Federal lands and the regulation of mineral exploration and development activities on Federal and Indian lands. As the principal earth science fact-gathering agency, the Survey provides information for sound decisionmaking by government and private industry. Industry uses the Survey's information in exploring for energy and minerals and improving their efforts to make development of energy and minerals compatible with environmental protection standards. Government uses the Survey's information in conducting leasing operations on public lands, in regulating the safe design and siting of nuclear plants, and in establishing guidelines for determining and locating areas that are subject to geologic hazards such as landslides, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions. The Yearbook reports a broad range of the Survey's accomplishments during the past fiscal year and provides an overview of future directions. Many of the topics covered will continue to be important natural resource and earth science issues of the 1980's.

Yearbook↗

USGS1990

Coal resources available for development; a methodology and pilot study

Coal accounts for a major portion of our Nation's energy supply in projections for the future. A demonstrated reserve base of more than 475 billion short tons, as the Department of Energy currently estimates, indicates that, on the basis of today's rate of consumption, the United States has enough coal to meet projected energy needs for almost 200 years. However, the traditional procedures used for estimating the demonstrated reserve base do not account for many environmental and technological restrictions placed on coal mining. A new methodology has been developed to determine the quantity of coal that might actually be available for mining under current and foreseeable conditions. This methodology is unique in its approach, because it applies restrictions to the coal resource before it is mined. Previous methodologies incorporated restrictions into the recovery factor (a percentage), which was then globally applied to the reserve (minable coal) tonnage to derive a recoverable coal tonnage. None of the previous methodologies define the restrictions and their area and amount of impact specifically. Because these restrictions and their impacts are defined in this new methodology, it is possible to achieve more accurate and specific assessments of available resources. This methodology has been tested in a cooperative project between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Kentucky Geological Survey on the Matewan 7.5-minute quadrangle in eastern Kentucky. Pertinent geologic, mining, land-use, and technological data were collected, assimilated, and plotted. The National Coal Resources Data System was used as the repository for data, and its geographic information system software was applied to these data to eliminate restricted coal and quantify that which is available for mining. This methodology does not consider recovery factors or the economic factors that would be considered by a company before mining. Results of the pilot study indicate that, of the estimated original 986.5 million short tons of coal resources in Kentucky's Matewan quadrangle, 13 percent has been mined, 2 percent is restricted by land-use considerations, and 23 percent is restricted by technological considerations. This leaves an estimated 62 percent of the original resource, or approximately 612 million short tons available for mining. However, only 44 percent of this available coal (266 million short tons) will meet current Environmental Protection Agency new-source performance standards for sulfur emissions from electric generating plants in the United States. In addition, coal tonnage lost during mining and cleaning would further reduce the amount of coal actually arriving at the market.

Circular↗