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Unbiased survival estimates and evidence for skipped breeding opportunities in females

1.  Estimates of demographic parameters for females, in many organisms, are sparse. This is particularly worrisome as more and more species are faced with high extinction probabilities and conservation increasingly depends on actions dictated by complex predictive models that require accurate estimates of demographic parameters for each sex and species. 2.  This study assesses demographic parameters, specifically temporary emigration and survival, for females, a class that has been difficult to investigate historically because of lack of data. Amphibians provide a particularly good example because there is global concern about amphibian decline; yet most demographic parameter estimates are based on data from males, which we show can lead to erroneous conclusions. 3.  We use 10 years of capture–recapture data from boreal toads ( Bufo boreas ) and the multi-state open robust design model to provide evidence for the occurrence of skipped breeding opportunities (i.e. temporary emigration) in females. This is the first time that the open robust design model has been applied to an analysis of an amphibian population that we are aware of. 4.  We determined that the transition from breeder to non-breeder is obligate and the probability of a non-breeder remaining a non-breeder is 64%; thus, temporary emigration is first-order Markovian in nature, where breeding probability is dependent on the previous year’s activity, i.e. if a female did not breed in year one, there is a 36% chance that she will breed in year two. With temporary emigration accounted for, we estimated between-year female survival at 87%. 5.  Establishing the occurrence of temporary emigration not only reduces bias in estimates of survival probabilities but also provides information about expected breeding attempts by females, a critical element in understanding the ecology of an organism and the impacts of outside stressors and conservation actions.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗

Semipermanent GPS (SPGPS) as a volcano monitoring tool: Rationale, method, and applications

Semipermanent GPS (SPGPS) is an alternative to conventional campaign or survey-mode GPS (SGPS) and to continuous GPS (CGPS) that offers several advantages for monitoring ground deformation. Unlike CGPS installations, SPGPS stations can be deployed quickly in response to changing volcanic conditions or earthquake activity such as a swarm or aftershock sequence. SPGPS networks can be more focused or more extensive than CGPS installations, because SPGPS equipment can be moved from station to station quickly to increase the total number of stations observed in a given time period. SPGPS networks are less intrusive on the landscape than CGPS installations, which makes it easier to satisfy land-use restrictions in ecologically sensitive areas. SPGPS observations are preferred over SGPS measurements because they provide better precision with only a modest increase in the amount of time, equipment, and personnel required in the field. We describe three applications of the SPGPS method that demonstrate its utility and flexibility. At the Yellowstone caldera, Wyoming, a 9-station SPGPS network serves to densify larger preexisting networks of CGPS and SGPS stations. At the Three Sisters volcanic center, Oregon, a 14-station SPGPS network complements an SGPS network and extends the geographic coverage provided by 3 CGPS stations permitted under wilderness land-use restrictions. In the Basin and Range province in northwest Nevada, a 6-station SPGPS network has been established in response to a prolonged earthquake swarm in an area with only sparse preexisting geodetic coverage. At Three Sisters, the estimated precision of station velocities based on annual ~ 3 month summertime SPGPS occupations from 2009 to 2015 is approximately half that for nearby CGPS stations. Conversely, SPGPS-derived station velocities are about twice as precise as those based on annual ~ 1 week SGPS measurements. After 5 years of SPGPS observations at Three Sisters, the precision of velocity determinations is estimated to be 0.5 mm/yr in longitude, 0.6 mm/yr in latitude, and 0.8 mm/yr in height. We conclude that an optimal approach to monitoring volcano deformation includes complementary CGPS and SPGPS networks, periodic InSAR observations, and measurements from in situ borehole sensors such as tiltmeters or strainmeters. This comprehensive approach provides the spatial and temporal detail necessary to adequately characterize a complex and evolving deformation pattern. Such information is essential to multi-parameter models of magmatic or tectonic processes that can help to guide research efforts, and also to inform hazards assessments and land-use planning decisions.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

Refugial isolation and divergence in the Narrowheaded Gartersnake species complex (Thamnophis rufipunctatus) as revealed by multilocus DNA sequence data

Glacial–interglacial cycles of the Pleistocene are hypothesized as one of the foremost contributors to biological diversification. This is especially true for cold‐adapted montane species, where range shifts have had a pronounced effect on population‐level divergence. Gartersnakes of the Thamnophis rufipunctatus species complex are restricted to cold headwater streams in the highlands of the Sierra Madre Occidental and southwestern USA. We used coalescent and multilocus phylogenetic approaches to test whether genetic diversification of this montane‐restricted species complex is consistent with two prevailing models of range fluctuation for species affected by Pleistocene climate changes. Our concatenated nuDNA and multilocus species analyses recovered evidence for the persistence of multiple lineages that are restricted geographically, despite a mtDNA signature consistent with either more recent connectivity (and introgression) or recent expansion (and incomplete lineage sorting). Divergence times estimated using a relaxed molecular clock and fossil calibrations fall within the Late Pleistocene, and zero gene flow scenarios among current geographically isolated lineages could not be rejected. These results suggest that increased climate shifts in the Late Pleistocene have driven diversification and current range retraction patterns and that the differences between markers reflect the stochasticity of gene lineages (i.e. ancestral polymorphism) rather than gene flow and introgression. These results have important implications for the conservation of T. rufipunctatus (sensu novo), which is restricted to two drainage systems in the southwestern US and has undergone a recent and dramatic decline.

Molecular Ecology↗

Best practices for virtual participation in meetings: Experiences from synthesis centers

The earth environment is a complex system, in which collaborative scientific approaches can provide major benefits by bringing together diverse perspectives, methods, and data, to achieve robust, synthetic understanding (Fig. 1). Face-to-face scientific meetings remain extremely valuable because of the opportunity to build deep mutual trust and understanding, and develop new collaborations and sometimes even lifelong friendships (Alberts 2013, Cooke and Hilton 2015). However, it has been argued that ecologists should be particularly sensitive to the environmental footprint of travel (Fox et al. 2009); such concerns, along with the time demands for travel, particularly for multi-national working groups, provide strong motivation for exploring virtual attendance. While not replacing the richness of face-to-face interactions entirely, it is now feasible to virtually participate in meetings through services that allow video, audio, and file sharing, as well as other Web-enabled communication.

Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America↗

Shotgun sequencing of airborne eDNA achieves rapid assessment of whole biomes, population genetics and genomic variation

Biodiversity and its associated genetic diversity are being lost at an unprecedented rate. Simultaneously, the distributions of flora, fauna, fungi, microbes and pathogens are rapidly changing. Novel technology can help to capture and record genetic diversity before it is lost and to measure population shifts and pathogen distributions. Here we report the rapid application of shotgun long-read environmental DNA (eDNA) analysis for non-invasive biodiversity, genetic diversity and pathogen assessments from air. We also compared air eDNA with water and soil eDNA. Coupling long-read sequencing with established cloud-based biodiversity pipelines enabled a 2-day turnaround from airborne sample collection to completed analysis by a single investigator. To determine the full utility of airborne eDNA, we also conducted a local bioinformatic analysis and deep short-read shotgun sequencing. From outdoor air eDNA alone, comprehensive genetic analysis was performed, including population genetics (phylogenetic placement) of a charismatic mammal (bobcat, Lynx rufus ) and a venomous spider (golden silk orb weaver, Trichonephila clavipes ), and haplotyping humans ( Homo sapiens ) from natural complex community settings, such as subtropical forests and temperate locations. The rich datasets also enabled deeper analysis of specific species and genomic regions of interest, including viral variant calling, human variant analysis and antimicrobial resistance gene surveillance from airborne DNA. Our results highlight the speed, versatility and specificity of pan-biodiversity monitoring via non-invasive eDNA sampling using current benchtop/portable and cloud-based approaches. Furthermore, they reveal the future feasibility of scaling down (equipment and temporally) these approaches for near real-time analysis. Together these approaches can enable rapid simultaneous detection of all life and its genetic diversity from air, water and sediment samples for unbiased non-targeted information-rich genomics-empowered (1) biodiversity monitoring, (2) population genetics, (3) pathogen and disease-vector genomic surveillance, (4) allergen and narcotic surveillance, (5) antimicrobial resistance surveillance and (6) bioprospecting.

Nature Ecology & Evolution↗

Extensibility of U-net neural network model for hydrographic feature extraction and implications for hydrologic modeling

Accurate maps of regional surface water features are integral for advancing ecologic, atmospheric and land development studies. The only comprehensive surface water feature map of Alaska is the National Hydrography Dataset (NHD). NHD features are often digitized representations of historic topographic map blue lines and may be outdated. Here we test deep learning methods to automatically extract surface water features from airborne interferometric synthetic aperture radar (IfSAR) data to update and validate Alaska hydrographic databases. U-net artificial neural networks (ANN) and high-performance computing (HPC) are used for supervised hydrographic feature extraction within a study area comprised of 50 contiguous watersheds in Alaska. Surface water features derived from elevation through automated flow-routing and manual editing are used as training data. Model extensibility is tested with a series of 16 U-net models trained with increasing percentages of the study area, from about 3 to 35 percent. Hydrography is predicted by each of the models for all watersheds not used in training. Input raster layers are derived from digital terrain models, digital surface models, and intensity images from the IfSAR data. Results indicate about 15 percent of the study area is required to optimally train the ANN to extract hydrography when F1-scores for tested watersheds average between 66 and 68. Little benefit is gained by training beyond 15 percent of the study area. Fully connected hydrographic networks are generated for the U-net predictions using a novel approach that constrains a D-8 flow-routing approach to follow U-net predictions. This work demonstrates the ability of deep learning to derive surface water feature maps from complex terrain over a broad area.

Alaska↗

Appropriate sample sizes for monitoring burned pastures in sagebrush steppe: How many plots are enough, and can one size fit all?

Statistically defensible information on vegetation conditions is needed to guide rangeland management decisions following disturbances such as wildfire, often for heterogeneous pastures. Here we evaluate the number of plots needed to make informed adaptive management decisions using >2000 plots sampled on the 2015 Soda Fire that burned across 75 pastures and 113,000 ha in Idaho and Oregon, USA. We predicted that the number of plots required to generate a threshold of standard error/mean ≤0.2 (TSR, threshold sampling requirement) for plant cover within pasture units would vary between sampling methods (rapid ocular versus grid-point intercept) and among plot sizes (1, 6, or 531 m2), as well as relative to topography, elevation, pasture size, complexity of soils and vegetation treatments applied, and dominance by exotic annual or perennial grasses. Sampling was adequate for determining exotic annual and perennial grass cover in about half of the pastures. A tradeoff in number versus size of plots sampled was apparent, whereby TSR was attainable with less area searched using smaller plot sizes (1 compared to 531 m2) in spite of less variability between larger plots. TSR for both grass types decreased as their dominance increased (0.5-1.5 plots per % cover increment). TSR decreased for perennial grass but increased for exotic annual grass with higher elevations. TSR increased with standard deviation of elevation for perennial grass sampled with grid-point intercept. Sampling effort could be more reliably predicted from landscape variables for the grid-point compared to ocular sampling method. These findings suggest that adjusting the number and size of sample plots within a pasture or burn area using easily determined landscape variables could increase monitoring efficiency and effectiveness.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗

Temporal changes of populations and trophic relationships of wintering diving ducks in Chesapeake Bay

Population and trophic relationships among diving ducks in Chesapeake Bay are diverse and complex as they include five species of bay ducks (Aythya spp.), nine species of seaducks (Tribe Mergini), and the Ruddy Duck (Oxyura jamaicensis). Here we considered the relationships between population changes and diet over the past half century to assess the importance of prey changes to wintering waterfowl in the Bay. Food habits of 643 diving ducks collected from Chesapeake Bay during 1999-2006 were determined by analyses of their gullet (esophagus and proventriculus) and gizzard contents and compared to historical data (1885-1979) of 1,541 diving ducks. Aerial waterfowl surveys, in general, suggest that six species of seaducks were more commonly located in the meso- to polyhaline areas of the Bay, whereas five species of bay ducks and Ruddy Ducks were in the oligo- to mesohaline areas. Seaducks fed on a molluscan diet of Hooked Mussel (Ischadium recurvum), Amethyst Gemclam (Gemma gemma), and Dwarf Surfclarn (Mulinia lateralis). Bay ducks and Ruddy Ducks fed more on Baltic Macoma (Macoma balthica), the adventive Atlantic Rangia (Rangia cuneata), and submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). Mergansers were found over the widest salinity range in the Bay, probably because of their piscivorous diet. Each diving duck species appears to fill a unique foraging niche, although there is much overlap of selected prey. When current food habits are compared to historic data, only the Canvasback (Aythya valisineria) has had major diet changes, although SAV now accounts for less food volume for all diving duck species, except the Redhead (Aythya americana). Understanding the trophic-habitat relationships of diving ducks in coastal wintering areas will give managers a better understanding of the ecological effects of future environmental changes. Intensive restoration efforts on SAV and oyster beds should greatly benefit diving duck populations.

Waterbirds↗

Phylogeographic patterns of Hawaiian Megalagrion damselflies (Odonata: Coenagrionidae) correlate with Pleistocene island boundaries

The Pleistocene geological history of the Hawaiian Islands is becoming well understood. Numerous predictions about the influence of this history on the genetic diversity of Hawaiian organisms have been made, including the idea that changing sea levels would lead to the genetic differentiation of populations isolated on individual volcanoes during high sea stands. Here, we analyse DNA sequence data from two closely related, endemic Hawaiian damselfly species in order to test these predictions, and generate novel insights into the effects of Pleistocene glaciation and climate change on island organisms. Megalagrion xanthomelas and Megalagrion pacificum are currently restricted to five islands, including three islands of the Maui Nui super-island complex (Molokai, Lanai, and Maui) that were connected during periods of Pleistocene glaciation, and Hawaii island, which has never been subdivided. Maui Nui and Hawaii are effectively a controlled, natural experiment on the genetic effects of Pleistocene sea level change. We confirm well-defined morphological species boundaries using data from the nuclear EF-1?? gene and show that the species are reciprocally monophyletic. We perform phylogeographic analyses of 663 base pairs (bp) of cytochrome oxidase subunit II (COII) gene sequence data from 157 individuals representing 25 populations. Our results point to the importance of Pleistocene land bridges and historical island habitat availability in maintaining inter-island gene flow. We also propose that repeated bottlenecks on Maui Nui caused by sea level change and restricted habitat availability are likely responsible for low genetic diversity there. An island analogue to northern genetic purity and southern diversity is proposed, whereby islands with little suitable habitat exhibit genetic purity while islands with more exhibit genetic diversity. ?? 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Molecular Ecology↗

An emerging crisis across northern prairie refuges: Prevalence of invasive plants and a plan for adaptive management

In the northern Great Plains, native prairies managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Service) can be pivotal in conservation of North America's biological diversity. From 2002 to 2006, we surveyed 7,338 belt transects to assess the general composition of mixed-grass and tallgrass prairie vegetation across five "complexes" (i.e., administrative groupings) of national wildlife refuges managed by the Service in North Dakota and South Dakota. Native grasses and forbs were common (mean frequency of occurrence 47%-54%) on two complexes but uncommon (4%-13%) on two others. Conversely, an introduced species of grass, smooth brome (Bromus inermis), accounted for 45% to 49% of vegetation on two complexes and another species, Kentucky bluegrass (Poa pratensis) accounted for 27% to 36% of the vegetation on three of the complexes. Our data confirm prior suspicions of widespread invasion by introduced species of plants on Service-owned tracts of native prairie, changes that likely stem in part from a common management history of little or no disturbance (e.g., defoliation by grazing or fire). However, variability in the degree and type of invasion among prairie tracts suggests that knowledge of underlying causes (e.g., edaphic or climatic factors, management histories) could help managers more effectively restore prairies. We describe an adaptive management approach to acquire such knowledge while progressing with restoration. More specifically, we propose to use data from inventories of plant communities on Service-owned prairies to design and implement, as experiments, optimal restoration strategies. We will then monitor these experiments and use the results to refine future strategies. This comprehensive, process-oriented approach should yield reliable and robust recommendations for restoration and maintenance of native prairies in the northern Great Plains. 2009 by the Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System.

Ecological Restoration↗

From satellites to frogs: Quantifying ecohydrological change, drought mitigation, and population demography in desert meadows

Increasing frequency and severity of droughts have motivated natural resource managers to mitigate harmful ecological and hydrological effects of drought, but drought mitigation is an emerging science and evaluating its effectiveness is difficult. We examined ecohydrological responses of drought mitigation actions aimed at conserving populations of the Columbia spotted frog ( Rana luteiventris ) in a semi-arid valley in Nevada, USA. Abundance of this rare frog had declined precipitously after multiple droughts. Mitigation included excavating ponds to increase available surface water and installing earthen dams to raise water tables. We assessed responses of riparian vegetation to mitigation using a 30-year time series of satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and gridded weather data. We then analyzed a 23-year mark-recapture dataset to evaluate the effects of drought mitigation and NDVI on the probability of frog survival and rates of recruitment. After accounting for interannual precipitation variability, we found that NDVI increased significantly from before to after drought mitigation, suggesting that mitigation influenced the hydrology and vegetation of the meadows. Frog survival increased with NDVI, but mitigation had a stronger effect than NDVI suggesting that excavated mitigation ponds were particularly important for frog survival during drought. In contrast, frog recruitment was associated with NDVI more than mitigation, but only in meadows where NDVI was dependent on precipitation. At meadows with available groundwater, recruitment was associated with mitigation ponds. These findings suggest that mitigation ponds are critical for juvenile frogs to recruit into the adult population, but recruitment can also be increased by raising water tables in meadows lacking groundwater sources. Lagged recruitment (i.e., effects on larvae and juveniles) was negatively associated with NDVI. This study illustrates the ecohydrological complexity of drought mitigation and demonstrates novel ways to assess the effectiveness of drought mitigation using time series of readily available satellite imagery and organismal data.

Nevada↗

Modeling impacts of saltwater intrusion on methane and nitrous oxide emissions in tidal forested wetlands

Emissions of methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) from soils to the atmosphere can offset the benefits of carbon sequestration for climate change mitigation. While past study has suggested that both CH 4 and N 2 O emissions from tidal freshwater forested wetlands (TFFW) are generally low, the impacts of coastal droughts and drought-induced saltwater intrusion on CH 4 and N 2 O emissions remain unclear. In this study, a process-driven biogeochemistry model, Tidal Freshwater Wetland DeNitrification-DeComposition (TFW-DNDC) was applied to examine the responses of CH 4 and N 2 O emissions to episodic drought-induced saltwater intrusion in TFFW along the Waccamaw River and Savannah River, USA. These sites encompass landscape gradients of both surface and porewater salinity as influenced by Atlantic Ocean tides superimposed on periodic droughts. Surprisingly, CH 4 and N 2 O emission responsiveness to coastal droughts and drought-induced saltwater intrusion varied greatly between river systems and among local geomorphologic settings. This reflected the complexity of wetland CH 4 and N 2 O emissions and suggests that simple linkages to salinity may not always be relevant, as non-linear relationships dominated our simulations. Along the Savannah River, N 2 O emissions in the moderate-oligohaline tidal forest site tended to increase dramatically under the drought condition, while CH 4 emission decreased. For the Waccamaw River, emissions of both CH 4 and N 2 O in the moderate-oligohaline tidal forest site tended to decrease under the drought condition, but the capacity of the moderate-oligohaline tidal forest to serve as a carbon sink was substantially reduced due to significant declines in net primary productivity and soil organic carbon sequestration rates as salinity killed the dominant freshwater vegetation. These changes in fluxes of CH 4 and N 2 O reflect crucial synergistic effects of soil salinity and water level on C and N dynamics in TFFW due to drought-induced seawater intrusion.

Ecological Applications↗

A draft decision framework for the National Park Service Interior Region 5 bison stewardship strategy

The Department of the Interior Bison Conservation Initiative calls for its bureaus to plan and implement collaborative American bison conservation and to ensure involvement by tribal, state, and local governments and the public in that conservation. Four independently managed and geographically separated National Park Service (NPS) units in Interior Region 5 (IR5) preserve bison and other components of a formerly contiguous Great Plains landscape. Management of bison in IR5 parks has historically been specific to each park, and livestock and range management science informed much of the decision making. In the past two decades, NPS has shifted away from managing bison from this livestock-based perspective towards a wildlife stewardship approach, including ensuring their long-term adaptive potential and considering them as just one part of a complex ecosystem. This shift requires a more holistic and cooperative approach to stewardship that is challenging not only because of limitations in funding and fluctuations in leadership priorities, but also because of the constraints imposed by the parks’ relatively small, fenced areas. The IR5 NPS Bison Stewardship Strategy (“Strategy”) will help the NPS to meet its responsibilities in cooperative stewardship of bison. The Strategy will serve to organize and consolidate the NPS’s legal and policy responsibilities within a framework of collectively defined values and objectives to support the careful and transparent decision-making processes that both guide and transcend park-specific planning. This report describes a preliminary decision framework for the Strategy, including the context, the fundamental objectives, and a range of alternative strategies developed and considered through two workshops and a series of conference calls with NPS personnel, stakeholders, and outside experts with an interest in IR5 NPS bison stewardship. Although not the Strategy itself, this framework serves as the Strategy’s starting point and identifies 14 fundamental objectives, falling in four major themes: Persistence of Wild and Healthy Bison 1. Maximize the long-term persistence of bison in IR5 parks 2. Maximize the long-term adaptive capacity of bison in North America 3. Maximize the wildness of the bison herds 4. Maximize humane treatment of bison, while allowing natural processes to occur Supporting Tribal Buffalo Culture 5. Improve relationships, trust, and communication with Tribes to enhance shared stewardship of bison within and beyond IR5 6. Maximize the number of live, healthy bison that can be transferred to tribal herds Persistence of Native Ecological Communities and Processes 7. Maximize structural and compositional heterogeneity of native prairie plant communities across space and time within each park 8. Maximize the abundance and diversity of animal species of special concern 9. Minimize the loss of native grassland within each park 10. Minimize the abundance of exotic plants in the park landscape 11. Maximize riparian area and wetland integrity Public Outreach 12. Maximize the number of healthy, wild bison that are visible to the public 13. Maximize the safety of visitors 14. Maximize public understanding of the past, present, and future of bison and Native Americans in the Great Plains The terms “minimize” and “maximize” in these objectives describe the desired direction for each individual objective. Finding the right balance among these objectives and any others identified in further work is one of the central challenges in developing the Strategy. To that end, this report also demonstrates and describes potential methods for evaluating how well alternative strategies would achieve each of the fundamental objectives.

Natural Resource Report↗

Seafloor habitat mapping and classification in Glacier Bay, Alaska: Phase 1 & 2 1996-2004

Glacier Bay is a diverse fjord ecosystem with multiple sills, numerous tidewater glaciers and a highly complex oceanographic system. The Bay was completely glaciated prior to the 1700’s and subsequently experienced the fastest glacial retreat recorded in historical times. Currently, some of the highest sedimentation rates ever observed occur in the Bay, along with rapid uplift (up to 2.5 cm/year) due to a combination of plate tectonics and isostatic rebound. Glacier Bay is the second deepest fjord in Alaska, with depths over 500 meters. This variety of physical processes and bathymetry creates many diverse habitats within a relatively small area (1,255 km 2 ). Habitat can be defined as the locality, including resources and environmental conditions, occupied by a species or population of organisms (Morrison et al 1992). Mapping and characterization of benthic habitat is crucial to an understanding of marine species and can serve a variety of purposes including: understanding species distributions and improving stock assessments, designing special management areas and marine protected areas, monitoring and protecting important habitats, and assessing habitat change due to natural or human impacts. In 1996, Congress recognized the importance of understanding benthic habitat for fisheries management by reauthorizing the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act and amending it with the Sustainable Fisheries Act (SFA). This amendment emphasizes the importance of habitat protection to healthy fisheries and requires identification of essential fish habitat in management decisions. Recently, the National Park Service’s Ocean Stewardship Strategy identified the creation of benthic habitat maps and sediment maps as crucial components to complete basic ocean park resource inventories (Davis 2003). Glacier Bay National Park managers currently have very limited knowledge about the bathymetry, sediment types, and various marine habitats of ecological importance in the Park. Ocean floor bathymetry and sediment type are the building blocks of marine communities. Bottom type and shape affects the kinds of benthic communities that develop in a particular environment as well as the oceanographic conditions that communities are subject to. Accurate mapping of the ocean floor is essential for park manager’s understanding of existing marine communities and will be important in assessing human induced changes (e.g., vessel traffic and commercial fishing), biological change (e.g., rapid sea otter recolonization), and geological processes of change (e.g., deglaciation). Information on animal-habitat relationships, particularly within a marine reserve framework, will be valuable to agencies making decisions about critical habitats, marine reserve design, as well as fishery management. Identification and mapping of benthic habitat provides National Park Service mangers with tools to increase the effectiveness of resource management. The primary objective of this project is to investigate the geological characteristics of the biological habitats of halibut, Dungeness crab, king crab, and Tanner crab within Glacier Bay National Park. Additionally, habitat classification of shallow water regions of Glacier Bay will provide crucial information on the relationship between benthic habitat features and the abundance of benthic prey items for a variety of marine predators, including sea ducks, the rapidly increasing population of sea otters, and other marine mammals.

Alaska↗

Surveys for presence of Oregon spotted frog (Rana pretiosa): background information and field methods

The Oregon spotted frog (Rana pretiosa) is the most aquatic of the native frogs in the Pacific Northwest. The common name derives from the pattern of black, ragged-edged spots set against a brown or red ground color on the dorsum of adult frogs. Oregon spotted frogs are generally associated with wetland complexes that have several aquatic habitat types and sizeable coverage of emergent vegetation. Like other ranid frogs native to the Northwest, Oregon spotted frogs breed in spring, larvae transform in summer of their breeding year, and adults tend to be relatively short lived (3-5 yrs). Each life stage (egg, tadpole, juvenile and adult) has characteristics that present challenges for detection. Breeding can be explosive and completed within 1-2 weeks. Egg masses are laid in aggregations, often in a few locations in large areas of potential habitat. Egg masses can develop, hatch, and disintegrate in <2 weeks during warm weather. Tadpoles can be difficult to identify, have low survival, and spend most of their 3-4 months hidden in vegetation or flocculant substrates. Juveniles and adults are often difficult to capture and can spend summers away from breeding areas. Moreover, a substantial portion of extant populations are of limited size (<100 breeding adults), and field densities of all life stages are often low. An understanding of the biology of the species and use of multiple visits are thus important for assessing presence of Oregon spotted frogs. This report is meant to be a resource for USDA Region 6 Forest Service (FS) and OR/WA Bureau of Land Management (BLM) personnel tasked with surveying for the presence of Oregon spotted frogs. Our objective was to summarize information to improve the efficiency of field surveys and increase chances of detection if frogs are present. We include overviews of historical and extant ranges of Oregon spotted frog. We briefly summarize what is known of Oregon spotted frog habitat associations and review aspects of behavior and ecology that are likely to affect detectability in the field. We summarize characteristics that can help differentiate Oregon spotted frog life stages from other northwestern ranid frogs encountered during surveys. Appendices include examples of data collection formats and a protocol for disinfecting field gear.

Interagency Special Status / Sensitive Species Pro↗

Challenges creating monarch butterfly management strategies for electric power companies in the United States

Returning monarch butterflies ( Danaus plexippus ) to sustainable levels of abundance will require an array of contributors to protect and restore habitat over broad areas. Due to the diversity and scale of land managed by electric power companies across the monarch range, plus an additional 32 million hectares needed for new solar arrays by 2050 to meet renewable energy goals, the industry may have potential to contribute to monarch conservation. However, it is challenging to clearly understand an individual company’s potential for monarch conservation because of the scale and distribution of their specific land assets (ranging from 4,800 to 240,000 hectares in this study alone), the complexity of monarch science, and the lack of a science-based approach for evaluating large land assets for monarch habitat. With monarchs potentially being protected under the United States Endangered Species Act in the future and thereby limiting land management approaches, there is interest from electric power companies to understand how their lands relate to monarchs. In collaboration with companies, we developed a GIS-based model to identify company landholdings that contain high-quality monarch habitat and applied the model to specific landholdings of eight power companies in the United States. We then facilitated discussions with company teams to balance conservation goals, corporate risk, and social opinion. This paper describes non-confidential results for developing a national GIS-based monarch habitat model and applying it to electric power companies who are considering monarch conservation while simultaneously transitioning to a new clean energy future. The model and applied experience may be useful for other organizations working across large landscapes to manage monarchs.

conterminous United States↗

Using climate-fire analog mapping to inform climate change adaptation strategies for wildland fire in protected areas of the conterminous US

Potential changes in wildland fire regimes due to anthropogenic climate change can be projected using data from climate models, but directly applying these meteorological variables to long-term planning and adaptive management activities may be difficult for decision makers. Analog mapping, in contrast, creates more intuitive assessments of changing fire regimes that also recognize the complex, multivariate, and multi-scalar nature of ecosystems. Here, we use data from 20 downscaled climate models under two climate forcing scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), to identify and map future climate-fire analogs for 655 protected areas in the conterminous U.S. based on annual temperature, cumulative precipitation amount and seasonality, and fire regime potentials derived from a simple process-based fire frequency model. Patterns of analogs were heavily influenced by gradients in latitude and topography, with longer time frames (end-of-century conditions) and the more extreme climate forcing scenario resulting in greater analog distances and more ensemble entropy (i.e., less consensus among climate models regarding the closest analog for a given management unit). Finer scale analyses for three protected areas (Yellowstone and Great Smoky Mountains National Parks, White Mountain National Forest) illustrate how climate-fire analog mapping can improve insight into the types of ecosystem responses that might occur under similar management conditions. Federally protected areas such as national parks, forests, and wildlife refuges have long served as reference sites for the study of fire regimes, a role that is likely to continue because many of these units are managed to allow at least some ecosystem processes to operate independently. The results suggest that analog mapping approaches are well-suited as part of qualitative assessments within climate- and fire-aware adaptive management processes. The use of analogs to depict relatable, real-world depictions of possible ecosystem changes in a given place, can help managers make more strategic choices about when and where to resist, accept, or direct climate change-driven ecological change.

Global Environmental Change Advances↗

Preliminary geologic map of Black Canyon and surrounding region, Nevada and Arizona

Thermal springs in Black Canyon of the Colorado River, downstream of Hoover Dam, are important recreational, ecological, and scenic features of the Lake Mead National Recreation Area. This report presents the results from a U.S. Geological Survey study of the geologic framework of the springs. The study was conducted in cooperation with the National Park Service and funded by both the National Park Service and National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program of the U.S. Geological Survey. The report has two parts: A, a 1:48,000-scale geologic map created from existing geologic maps and augmented by new geologic mapping and geochronology; and B, an interpretive report that presents results based on a collection of fault kinematic data near springs within Black Canyon and construction of 1:100,000-scale geologic cross sections that extend across the western Lake Mead region. Exposures in Black Canyon are mostly of Miocene volcanic rocks, underlain by crystalline basement composed of Miocene plutonic rocks or Proterozoic metamorphic rocks. The rocks are variably tilted and highly faulted. Faults strike northwest to northeast and include normal and strike-slip faults. Spring discharge occurs along faults intruded by dacite dikes and plugs; weeping walls and seeps extend away from the faults in highly fractured rock or relatively porous volcanic breccias, or both. Results of kinematic analysis of fault data collected along tributaries to the Colorado River indicate two episodes of deformation, consistent with earlier studies. The earlier episode formed during east-northeast-directed extension, and the later during east-southeast-directed extension. At the northern end of the study area, pre-existing fault blocks that formed during the first episode were rotated counterclockwise along the left-lateral Lake Mead Fault System. The resulting fault pattern forms a complex arrangement that provides both barriers and pathways for groundwater movement within and around Black Canyon. Regional cross sections in this report show that thick Paleozoic carbonate aquifer rocks of east-central Nevada do not extend into the Black Canyon area and generally are terminated to the south at a major tectonic boundary defined by the northeast-striking Lake Mead Fault System and the northwest-striking Las Vegas Valley shear zone. Faults to the west of Black Canyon strike dominantly north-south and form a complicated pattern that may inhibit easterly groundwater movement from Eldorado Valley. To the east of Black Canyon, crystalline Proterozoic rocks locally overlain by Tertiary volcanic rocks in the Black Mountains are bounded by steep north-south normal faults. These faults may also inhibit westerly groundwater movement from Detrital Valley toward Black Canyon. Finally, the cross sections show clearly that Proterozoic basement rocks and (or) Tertiary plutonic rocks are shallow in the Black Canyon area (at the surface to a few hundred meters depth) and are cut by several major faults that discharge most of the springs in the Black Canyon. Therefore, the faults most likely provide groundwater pathways to sufficient depths that the groundwater is heated to the observed temperatures of up to 55 °C.

Arizona, Nevada↗