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Water quality of the Quaternary and Ada-Vamoosa aquifers on the Osage Reservation, Osage County, Oklahoma, 1997

The project was to provide information on the quality of ground water from rural-domestic-water wells within the Osage Reservation and compare the water-quality to proximity to oil wells. About 38,500 oil wells have been drilled in the Reservation since drilling began in 1896. About 1,480 square miles or 64 percent of the Reservation is within a quarter mile of an oil well. The unconfined Quaternary sand aquifer covers about 315 square miles or about 14 percent of the Reservation and the confined Ada-Vamoosa sandstone aquifer covers about 800 square miles or about 35 percent of the Reservation. Fifty-eight percent of the Quaternary aquifer and 69 percent of the outcrop area of the Ada-Vamoosa aquifer are within a quarter mile of an oil well. One hundred twenty domestic ground-water wells were sampled from the Quaternary and Ada-Vamoosa aquifers. Forty-nine percent of the Reservation is underlain by the aquifers. Ground-water quality is good on most of the Reservation, but the use of domestic-water-supply wells tend to minimize water-quality problems. Existing water-supply wells commonly are located in areas that produce usable volumes of potable water. Several constituents in samples from the Ada-Vamoosa aquifer within a quarter mile of an oil well were significantly greater than from the aquifer not near oil wells. The constituents include specific conductance, dissolved solids, sodium, sulfate, chloride, bromide, and silica. These ions are probably derived from brine water. In the Ada-Vamoosa aquifer subgroups, 57 percent of the samples near oil wells and 24 percent of the samples not near oil wells had dissolved-solids concentrations greater than 500 milligrams per liter. The water quality in the Quaternary and Ada-Vamoosa aquifers is similar in areas where no oil wells have been drilled but is significantly different for several constituents. Median concentrations of major constituents from the Ada-Vamoosa aquifer not near oil wells were less than or equal to values from the Quaternary aquifer. Sixty-four percent of the water-quality samples from the Quaternary and 51 percent from the Ada-Vamoosa aquifers have dissolved-solids concentrations less than the secondary drinking water regulations of 500 milligrams per liter. Fifty-nine percent of the aquifer samples in the Quaternary aquifer subgroups not near oil wells and 70 percent of the samples near oil wells had dissolved solids less than 500 milligrams per liter. Areas in the Ada-Vamoosa aquifer near Hominy, Pershing, and Hula Lake have dissolved-solids concentrations greater than the secondary drinking water regulations. Water-quality samples from the Quaternary aquifer in these areas also have dissolved-solids concentrations greater than 500 milligrams per liter.

Oklahoma

Distribution of ancient carbon in groundwater and soil gas from degradation of petroleum near the Red Hill Bulk Fuel Storage Facility, O‘ahu, Hawai‘i

The groundwater below the Red Hill Bulk Fuel Storage Facility (the facility) in Oʻahu, Hawaiʻi, contains fuel compounds from past spills. This study used carbon-14 analyses to distinguish fuel-derived carbon from background carbon, along with other biodegradation indicators, to address two goals: (1) determine the extent and migration direction of groundwater affected by residual fuel below the facility and (2) determine if residual fuel locations in the subsurface could be identified by analyzing soil gas at the surface above the facility. Groundwater from 19 wells was sampled between September 2022 and April 2023. Nonvolatile dissolved organic carbon (NVDOC) from a well presumed to be unaffected by past spills contained 38 percent ancient carbon indicating a natural source of ancient carbon in the subsurface. The NVDOC concentrations and ancient carbon percentages indicate fuel biodegradation products are likely present on the north and south of Red Hill with the greatest effects at well RHMW02 near the 2014 spill site. The NVDOC concentrations are almost three times higher than diesel range organic (DRO) concentrations in groundwater from the same sites. Major ion data indicate that iron reduction is an important biodegradation process. Soil probe samples and soil carbon traps were used to determine the carbon-14 content of soil carbon dioxide. Ancient carbon from fuel biodegradation was not detected at any soil probe or carbon trap site in contrast to a 2017 study which reported ancient carbon detections. A reanalysis of the 2017 results using a range of local values for background carbon-14 indicates that ancient carbon from fuel biodegradation was probably only detected in lower tunnel exhaust system samples and not in any soil carbon trap samples. Measurements of carbon dioxide efflux with a dynamic closed chamber were highly variable. The soil gas results indicate that soil gas measurements at land surface were not useful for detecting residual fuel at the facility.

Hawaii

A methods framework for evaluating measurement consistency across spectrometers for multispectral uncrewed aerial system vegetation mapping applications

The U.S. Geological Survey collects remote sensing data to support national scientific assessments of natural resources, hazards, and landscape change. Spectrometers and spectroradiometers are essential for gathering point-based spectral measurements used in applications such as uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) multispectral image calibration, validation, and analysis. Evaluating how different instruments perform in laboratory and field environments helps determine whether they provide consistent, interoperable measurements. Such verification can expand access to spectral ground data during UAS operations by allowing scientists to use alternative instruments when budgets, logistics, or field conditions limit options. We propose and test a methodological framework for evaluating spectrometers for measurement consistency during UAS multispectral vegetation mapping applications. There are three central evaluation components to the framework: laboratory, field, and relative to UAS multispectral imagery. By evaluating the instruments in both relatively controlled and uncontrolled environments, we thoroughly examine measurement consistency and when/why measurements may differ. We opportunistically selected two instruments for a case study in a coastal marsh setting: a compact laboratory spectrometer we modified for field use and a field-ready spectroradiometer. The instruments produced consistent measurements in both environments. We found differences between the field spectra and UAS spectra that likely reflect the perspectives of ground vs. aerial data and indicate that further radiometric calibration may be needed.

Massachusetts

Regional variations in sea ice and primary productivity in the Bering Sea during Marine Isotope Stage 11

Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 (424-374 ka) has long been an analog for Holocene climate, because it is the most recent interglacial period with similar orbital conditions. However, there is significant global and regional variability in the climate response to MIS 11 warmth. Here, we review sediment core records from across the Bering Sea to investigate changes in paleoceanographic conditions during Marine Isotope Stages 12-10. Sea ice was present over much of the Bering Sea during MIS 11, but today, none of the sites investigated are ever ice-covered. This suggests that sea ice regimes in the Bering Sea during MIS 11 were different to those of the Holocene. There are also regional differences in the response of sea ice to MIS 11 warming. At the Umnak Plateau, Southeastern Bering Sea, sea ice concentrations decline during deglaciation, but they remain high at the slope sites until Peak MIS 11. Sea ice re-advances over the Umnak Plateau during peak interglacial warmth, at the same time that it declines over the slope sites. Late MIS 11 is characterized by high concentrations of seasonal sea ice at the Umnak Plateau, whilst sea ice at the slope sites fluctuates between consolidated and unconsolidated ice cover. This east-west dichotomy may be explained by changes in the behavior of the Aleutian Low. Productivity increases dramatically during deglaciation due to increased upwelling and sea level rise bringing fresh nutrients into the oceans. This is characterized by increased diatom productivity, increased terrestrial carbon deposition, and laminations at all sites.

Alaska

Hydrothermal manganese-oxide mineralization of a carbonate ooze, Samoan hotspot region, South Pacific Ocean

Low-temperature hydrothermal manganese oxides occur throughout the global oceans. However, the hydrothermal replacement of a carbonate ooze by manganese oxides is described here for the first time. The 24 samples dredged from three locations around the Territory of American Samoa in the South Pacific Ocean include six samples with remnant carbonate and volcaniclastic sediments, which we refer to as “low Mn,” and 18 samples in which the mineralization is pervasive and has replaced most original sediment, termed “high Mn.” The 18 high-Mn samples exhibit a mean Mn content of 51 wt.%. Higher Li and Mn contents and lower Fe contents in the high-Mn samples indicate a hydrothermal origin and distinguish these samples from hydrogenetic ferromanganese crusts. Mn-oxide layers are up to 90 mm thick, some with columns to 44 mm long and 10 mm wide, the magnitude of which has not been described previously. Samples are composed of birnessite and 10 Å phyllomanganate minerals. Textures of the thickest Mn layers indicate mineralization below the seabed from ascending fluids during multiple hydrothermal pulses. Mineralization took place by complete to partial replacement and cementation of foraminiferal sediments intermixed with volcaniclastic sediments in varying amounts. Our results highlight the production of carbonate sediment-hosted hydrothermal Mn oxides from multiple hydrothermal sources within the Samoan volcanic chain. The potential extensive distribution on the regional scale of this newly described mineralization process and unique element enrichments raise questions about its broader distribution globally and potential importance to hydrothermal processes, element mass balance, and seabed mineral resources.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems

Hydraulic properties of the Madison aquifer system in the western Rapid City area, South Dakota

Available information on hydrogeology, data from borehole geophysical logs, and aquifer tests were used to determine the hydraulic properties of the Madison aquifer. From aquifer-test analysis, transmissivity and storage coefficient were determined for the Minnelusa and Madison aquifers, and vertical hydraulic conductivity (K v ') along with specific storage (Ss') for the Minnelusa confining bed. Borehole geophysical well logs were used to determine the thickness and location of the Minnelusa aquifer, the lower Minnelusa confining bed, and the Madison aquifer within the Madison Limestone. Porosity values determined from quantitative analysis of borehole geophysical well logs were used in analyzing the aquifer-test data. The average porosity at the two aquifer-test sites is about 10 percent in the Minnelusa aquifer, 5 percent in the lower Minnelusa confining bed, and 35 percent in the Madison aquifer. The first aquifer test, which was conducted at Rapid City production well #6, produced measured drawdown in the Minnelusa and Madison aquifers. Neuman and Witherspoon's method of determining the hydraulic properties of leaky two-aquifer systems was used to evaluate the aquifer-test data by assuming the fracture and solution-opening network is equivalent to a porous media. Analysis of the aquifer test for the Minnelusa aquifer yielded a transmissivity value of 12,000 feet squared per day and a storage coefficient of 3 x 10 -3 . The specific storage of the Minnelusa confining bed was 2 x 10 -7 per foot, and its vertical hydraulic conductivity was 0.3 foot per day. The transmissivity of the Madison aquifer at this site was 17,000 feet squared per day, and the storage coefficient was 2 x 10 -3 . The second aquifer test, which was conducted at Rapid City production well #5 (RC-5) produced measured drawdown only in the Madison aquifer. Hantush and Jacob's method of determining the hydraulic properties of leaky confined aquifers with no storage in the confining bed was used to evaluate the aquifer-test data by assuming the fracture and solution-opening network is equivalent to a porous media. The analysis of data from the RC-5 aquifer test showed that transmissivity was not equal in all directions. Hantush's method was used to determine the direction of radial anisotropy and magnitude of the major and minor axes of transmissivity. The major axis of transmissivity is at an angle of 42° east of north, and the transmissivity along this axis is about 56,000 feet squared per day. The minor axis of transmissivity is at an angle of 48° west of north, and the transmissivity along this axis is about 1,300 feet squared per day. The major axis of transmissivity intersects Cleghorn Springs, a large resurgent spring on the west edge of Rapid City. The shape of the potentiometric contours of the Madison aquifer near RC-5 agree with the orientation of the transmissivity ellipse. The average value of the storage coefficient from the isotropic analysis of the aquifer-test data was 3.5 x 10 -4 , and the average vertical hydraulic conductivity of the lower Minnelusa confining bed was 9.6 x 10 -3 foot per day.

South Dakota

Stormflow chemistry in the Santa Ana River below Prado Dam and at the diversion downstream from Imperial Highway, southern California, 1995-98

The Santa Ana River drains about 2,670 square miles of the densely populated coastal area of southern California, near Los Angeles. Almost all the flow in the river, more than 200,000 acre-feet annually, is diverted into ponds where it infiltrates and recharges underlying aquifers. About 2 million people are dependent on these aquifers for water supply. Stormflow in the Santa Ana River is considered a source of "high-quality" water suitable for use as a source of ground-water recharge. To test this assumption, stormflow samples were collected at two locations--below Prado Dam and at the diversion point downstream from Imperial Highway--for 12 winter storms between 1995 and 1998. Nitrate concentrations decreased during stormflow from a median concentration of 7.8 milligrams per liter in base flow to concentrations less than 1 milligram per liter in some large storms. Concentrations of chemically reduced forms of nitrogen (nitrite, ammonia, and organic nitrogen) increased during stormflow and are the predominant forms of nitrogen in large stormflows. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations increased from a median concentration of 4.6 milligrams per liter in base flow to more than 20 milligrams per liter in some stormflows. Concentrations of DOC were especially high during the first storm of the rainy season, and large increases in DOC concentrations were measured even as a result of small early season storms that did not cause large increases in streamflow. DOC present during early season stormflow had less ultraviolet absorbance at 254 nanometers (UV 254 ) per unit of carbon than did DOC from late season stormflows. DOC in water held in storage behind Prado Dam had the highest UV 254 absorbance per unit of carbon. Maximum pesticide concentrations in stormflow did not exceed U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Maximum Contaminant Levels. Most pesticide concentrations were less than 1 microgram per liter and less than the detection limits obtained using standard drinking water analyses. Increases in concentrations of pesticides such as diazinon, malathion, and chlorpyrifos in stormflow result from runoff from urban areas downstream from Prado Dam. In general, large late season stormflows have the most pesticide detections of all stormflows sampled. Concentrations of methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE), a gasoline additive, during base flow were as high as 0.9 microgram per liter and concentrations decreased during stormflow. Like pesticides, the concentrations did not exceed the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Maximum Contaminant Levels for MTBE.

California

From exploration to production: Understanding the development dynamics of lithium mining projects

Recently, there has been considerable recent controversy whether current and new lithium mines will be able to supply the rapidly growing needs of the electromobility transition. Mineral exploration projects are typically active for many years, and only some become operational mines. From exploration to production, the projects go through several stages of characterisation and evaluation. At each stage, decisions are made by companies and stakeholders to advance, continue or stop the project. This is a complex process, and even projects with very similar geological and technical characteristics may take very different trajectories, depending on external factors such as global market conditions and local regulatory environments. The present study investigates the dynamics of this process for lithium exploration projects. A global database of 397 lithium projects was compiled, covering their progression through major development stages between 2004 and 2022. Ordinal logistic regression was used for the statistical analysis of this data. Different explanatory variables were tested, including economic, geological, technical, and geographic factors, to identify the best predictors for project progress at each development stage. The results suggest an essential role for lithium carbonate prices, and a variable role for other factors at each stage. Critically, the already elapsed lead time and project economics, which are traditionally considered important for the prediction of the start-up of individual mines, do not appear to be relevant in all cases. The results provide important insights into the dynamics of lithium supply and may eventually allow more realistic forecasts to be made for future lithium market dynamics.

Resources Policy

Treatability study to evaluate bioremediation of trichloroethene at Site K, former Twin Cities Army Ammunition Plant, Arden Hills, Minnesota, 2020–22

Executive Summary Chlorinated solvents, including trichloroethene (TCE) and other chlorinated volatile organic compounds (cVOCs), are widespread contaminants that can be treated by bioremediation approaches that enhance anaerobic reductive dechlorination. Reductive dechlorination can be enhanced either through the addition of an electron donor (biostimulation) or the addition of a known dechlorinating culture (bioaugmentation) along with an electron donor. Although bioremediation has been applied at many TCE-contaminated groundwater sites, application in source zones at sites where residual dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) is present is more limited. In this study, laboratory and field treatability tests were completed to evaluate the potential application of anaerobic bioremediation for a shallow groundwater plume containing TCE in a perched alluvial aquifer at Site K, former Twin Cities Army Ammunition Plant, Arden Hills, Minnesota, which was on the National Priorities List as the New Brighton/Arden Hills Superfund site until 2019. In addition to the presence of residual DNAPL at the site, temporal variability in groundwater flow directions and input of oxygenated recharge were possible complicating factors for the application of enhanced anaerobic biodegradation in the shallow plume. The Site K plume extends beneath the footprint of Building 103, which was demolished in 2006, and soil excavations to a maximum depth of 6 feet (ft) below ground surface in 2014 were known to leave some deeper contaminated soil in place in the TCE source area. Groundwater treatment at the site, formalized as part of the 1997 Record of Decision, has been in operation since 1986 and consists of an extraction trench at the downgradient edge of the plume to collect groundwater, which is then pumped to an on-site air stripper. Groundwater concentrations in the plume have been relatively stable since treatment began, indicating a continued source of TCE in the aquifer. The desire for a destructive remedy that would enhance the removal of cVOCs in the aquifer at Site K and shorten the remediation timeframe led the U.S. Army to request that the U.S. Geological Survey conduct a groundwater treatability study to assess bioremediation. This report describes the U.S. Geological Survey bioremediation treatability study conducted during 2020–22, including pre-design site characterization to assist in formulating the bioremediation approach, laboratory experiments to support the design of the field pilot test, and implementation and 1-year performance monitoring results for the pilot test. Pre-design site characterization included the collection of soil cores for cVOC analysis and lithologic descriptions and the re-installment of three wells to obtain hydrologic measurements and initial groundwater chemistry. Relatively flat head gradients were measured at the site, and substantial decreases in water-level elevations occurred from spring to summer (May–July 2021). Continuous water-level monitoring indicated a rapid response to precipitation. Groundwater flow velocities were consistently less than 0.5 foot per day, and the pilot bioremediation test was therefore designed with short lateral distances (about 5 ft) between injection and individual monitoring points. Soil analyses confirmed that high volatile organic compound contamination was left in place in the source area. The highest concentrations were near or in clay at the base of the perched aquifer. Concentrations of cVOCs measured in the replaced wells were consistent with historical data and had a maximum TCE concentration of 57,700 micrograms per liter (μg/L), indicative of nearby residual DNAPL based on the general rule of observed concentrations exceeding 1 percent of solubility. The primary TCE daughter product detected was 1,2-cis-dichloroethene (cisDCE), which indicated limited reductive dechlorination in the plume. Groundwater in both the source and downgradient areas was relatively reducing during the pre-design characterization, particularly in the source area where methane concentrations greater than 400 μg/L were measured. Initial laboratory tests conducted using native aquifer microorganisms from the three replacement wells showed that anaerobic TCE biodegradation rates were low when biostimulated with the addition of sodium lactate as an electron donor, also known as a carbon donor, and resulted in the production of only cisDCE. Addition of a known dechlorinating culture, WBC-2, however, resulted in rapid biodegradation and production of ethene, verifying complete reductive dechlorination of TCE. Microcosms constructed with aquifer soil collected from the site were used to evaluate other electron donors besides lactate to support reductive dechlorination by WBC-2, including corn syrup as an alternative fast-release compound and whey, soy-based vegetable oil, and 3-D Microemulsion (Regenesis, San Clemente, California) as slow-release compounds. First-order rate constants for total organic chlorine removal in these WBC-2 amended microcosms were greatest with either lactate or vegetable oil as the donor, ranging between 0.061 and 0.047 per day or corresponding half-lives of 11–15 days. Testing of commercial products in other WBC-2-bioaugmented microcosms led to selection for the field pilot test of an emulsified vegetable oil product that also contained some sodium lactate as a fast-release donor. Delaying the addition of WBC-2 relative to the donor in the microcosms resulted in the most rapid overall biodegradation rates. The selected design for the pilot test utilized three separate test plots, each about 30-ft wide and 60-ft long: plots GS1 and GS2 in the source area of the plume and plot GS3 in the downgradient area of the plume near the excavation trench. Each test plot had one injection well, one monitoring well upgradient from the injection point, and 12 surrounding monitoring wells in a grid to capture variable groundwater flow directions. Donor injections, which included a bromide tracer, were completed in October 2021, immediately following baseline sampling, and the WBC-2 culture was injected about 40 days later, between November 30 and December 2, 2021. Performance monitoring conducted until December 2022 included hydrologic measurements and analyses of cVOCs, redox-sensitive constituents, dissolved organic carbon, bromide, volatile fatty acids, compound-specific carbon isotopes, and microbial communities. The biogeochemical data collected during the pilot tests in the three treatment plots showed that enhanced, complete reductive dechlorination of cVOCs in the groundwater was achieved in the GS1 and GS3 plots. In contrast, evidence of distribution of the injected amendments and subsequent biodegradation was limited in GS2, which was in an area of more heterogeneous soil lithology and low water table elevations. The molar composition of volatile organic compounds in the GS1 and GS3 plots was dominated by ethene in wells that were reached by the injected amendments by the end of the monitoring period. In the GS1 and GS3 plots, similar patterns were observed of cVOC concentrations decreasing to near detection levels, or below, at some wells sampled in July and October 2022, whereas ethene became dominant and indicated sustained complete reductive dechlorination. Baseline cVOC concentrations were more than a factor of 10 higher in the groundwater in the GS1 plot than in GS3, but no apparent inhibition of complete dechlorination occurred. As expected from the initial pre-design site data and the laboratory experiments, enhanced dissolution of residual DNAPL coupled to biodegradation was evident in the GS1 plot, where a marked increase in dichloroethene (DCE) above the initial baseline and upgradient TCE and DCE concentrations occurred. DCE concentrations subsequently declined where DNAPL dissolution was evident, concurrent with production of vinyl chloride and then predominantly ethene. Thus, overall biodegradation rates outpaced the DNAPL dissolution and desorption and DCE production in the source area. This success in complete degradation to predominantly ethene was achieved even in areas where the DCE concentrations reached a maximum of about 30,000 μg/L. Compound specific isotope analysis of carbon in TCE, cisDCE, trans-1,2-dichloroethene, and vinyl chloride was conducted to provide another line of evidence of the occurrence and extent of anaerobic biodegradation. Along a flow path in each plot that was affected by the injected amendments, carbon isotopes in the TCE and daughter cVOCs in the groundwater became isotopically heavier, indicating biodegradation. Enhanced biodegradation rates calculated from the field tests in GS1 and GS3 showed half-lives of 36.9–75.3 days for DCE degradation and 9.48–38.5 days for ethene production. Notably, these ethene production rates calculated from the field tests are consistent with the results of WBC-2-bioaugmented microcosms amended with either lactate or vegetable oil, which had half-lives for total organic chlorine removal that ranged from 11 to 15 days. These rates indicated rapid enhanced biodegradation, which is promising for application of a full-scale bioremediation remedy. Ultimately, however, the mass of residual or sorbed TCE in the aquifer that remains accessible for dissolution and biodegradation would likely control the time required for a full-scale bioremediation effort to achieve performance goals for TCE and cisDCE specified in the Record of Decision for Site K. The field pilot tests showed that the relatively low hydraulic head gradients and temporal changes in groundwater flow directions in the shallow aquifer would add complexity to a full-scale bioremediation effort. The radius of influence (ROI) at GS1 and GS3 (16.3 ft and 12.7 ft, respectively) were close to the design ROI of 15 ft. The estimated ROI at GS2 was about four times the design ROI, but may be less reliable at this location owing to groundwater flow direction. In addition, the low temperatures following WBC-2 injection in late November to early December 2021, in combination with the low hydraulic head gradients, were probably major factors in the delay observed before the onset of enhanced biodegradation following injection of the culture. Additional test injections could be beneficial to optimize the timing of donor and culture injections with the variable temperatures and hydraulic head in the shallow aquifer.

Minnesota

Assessment of long-term changes in surface-water extent within Klamath Marsh, south-central Oregon, 1985–2021

The annual maximum extent of surface water in Klamath Marsh has naturally fluctuated in response to periods of wet and dry conditions in the surrounding basin. Field observations during the 2010s indicate that the annual maximum extent of surface water has been declining and the marsh is not responding to hydrologic inputs as it had historically. This report describes the results of a hydrologic evaluation of Klamath Marsh to characterize and understand multi-year declines in the surface-water extent and increased intermittency of streamflow exiting the marsh. Landsat imagery collected during 1985–2021 was processed to create a time series of annual maximum surface-water extent to assess changes in surface-water inundation within the marsh. A 50-percent decrease in the mean surface area of annual total open-water extent (TOWE) during the latter half of the study period (2003–21) compared to the first half (1985–2003) was observed in this 37-year time-series dataset. The change in open-water extent was offset by a corresponding increase in dry land in the marsh. Time series of streamflow, groundwater level, total annual precipitation, annual mean temperature, and anthropogenic water use and water management were compiled and evaluated to improve understanding of the factors affecting TOWE. Statistically significant downward trends in the regional groundwater table and streamflow into and out of the marsh were identified as well as statistically significant upward trends in annual mean temperature. Statistically significant correlations among TOWE, streamflow, and groundwater level also were identified. The decreasing trends could not be attributed to changes in total annual precipitation or changing anthropogenic groundwater use within the study area. Declines in the open-water extent of Klamath Marsh since 2000 principally are due to a decoupling of the groundwater and surface-water system beneath the marsh because of regional declines in groundwater level. Regional increases in air temperature and the reestablishment of more than 55,000 acres of forested land within the study area have likely contributed to increasing evapotranspiration, leaving less water available for groundwater recharge and stream base flow and resulting in basin-wide declines in streamflow and groundwater levels.

Oregon

Do Graviquakes exist?

The “Graviquake” model, proposed in 2015 as an alternative to the elastic dislocation model, posits that normal faults are passive features dominated by coseismic gravitational collapse into a dilated crustal wedge, and that normal faulting is fundamentally distinct from strike‐slip and reverse faulting. Developed using finite‐element modeling before the 2016 central Apennines earthquake sequence, the model was revamped based on interpreted Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data from these events and used as evidence for a gravitational collapse episode. However, this interpretation relies on miscalculated elevation changes and is not corroborated by independent geophysical and seismological observations. Our analysis exposes fundamental flaws in the Graviquake model. By assuming that faults are passive players, it underrepresents the dynamic role of strain accumulation and release in rocks adjacent to faults. The hypothesized rapid expulsion of overpressurized fluids appears inconsistent with observed diffusion rates and lacks supporting seismological evidence. Part of the uplifted–subsided volume imbalance is likely an artifact arising from data processing, and in part is a transient effect due to the delayed response of the lower crust. Moment tensor analyses detect no isotropic components indicative of gravitational collapse, and observed ground motion and stress‐drop levels remain fully consistent with elastic dislocation theory. In addition, finite‐element modeling of normal faulting replicates observed surface deformation without invoking a collapsing wedge. The Graviquake model proposes a representation of normal‐faulting mechanics that differs significantly from established models and observations. Gravity does play a role in normal faulting, but the elastic dislocation theory remains the definitive framework of fault mechanics. Reinterpreting the 2016 earthquakes as a cascade of gravitational episodes, based on incorrect data processing and modeling, fails to substantiate the Graviquake hypothesis. Persistence in advocating this model could mislead seismic hazard assessment and undermine our understanding of normal faulting.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

Data gap analysis for estimation of agricultural return flows in the Upper Gunnison River Basin, Colorado

The Gunnison River and many tributaries in the Upper Gunnison River Basin provide water to irrigate agricultural crops. The application of irrigation water can recharge some aquifers locally by water percolating below the root zone and eventually flowing back to the stream or river through the subsurface. Diverting surface water for irrigation reduces streamflow during the irrigation season but can provide temporary storage of water and supplement streamflow after the snowmelt runoff season. Understanding the timing and quantity of agricultural return flows could help resource managers make informed decisions and adapt to potential changes in water management and availability that could affect irrigation practices. In 2024, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Upper Gunnison River Water Conservancy District, began a study to characterize agricultural return flows in the Upper Gunnison River Basin by using endmember mixing analysis and developing a groundwater model. Both approaches require data from multiple sources, but data gaps exist in the East River study reach and other reaches of interest (Ohio Creek, Tomichi Creek, and Cochetopa Creek). The East River Basin, which is the initial focus of the study, has fewer data gaps than the other basins. Data gaps could be addressed by installing additional surface water and groundwater monitoring sites, making regular streamflow measurements on tributaries, and completing tests to characterize local aquifer properties.

Colorado

Water use across the conterminous United States, water years 2010–20

Withdrawals of water for human use are fundamental to the evaluation of the Nation’s water availability. This chapter provides an analysis of public supply, crop irrigation, and thermoelectric power water use for the conterminous United States (CONUS) during water years 2010–20. These three categories account for about 90 percent of water withdrawals in the Nation. The values presented here are based on modeling approaches that estimate water use at temporal (monthly) and spatial scales (12-digit hydrologic unit code—small watersheds sized 50–100 square kilometers) compatible for integration into a broader national assessment of water availability. Models also provide an understanding of factors that influence water use. An estimated 244,817 million gallons per day (Mgal/d; 28,677 million cubic meters per month [Mm 3 /mo]) were withdrawn on average within the CONUS during water years 2010–20 from fresh water and saline water for crop irrigation, public supply, and thermoelectric power, with shares of 43, 14.5, and 42.5 percent for each of these categories, respectively. In the same period, estimated withdrawals and consumptive use (1) for public supply were 35,400 and 4,219 Mgal/d (4,081 and 486 Mm 3 /mo), respectively; (2) for crop irrigation were 105,497 and 75,698 Mgal/d (12,147 and 8,716 Mm 3 /mo), respectively; and (3) for thermoelectric power from fresh water were 82,656 and 2,904 Mgal/d (9,952 and 345 Mm 3 /mo), respectively. Withdrawals for these categories of water use are highly spatially variable, with western States dominated by crop irrigation and eastern States dominated by thermoelectric-power water use. Public supply accounts for the largest percentage of water use in several heavily populated northeastern States. Reliance on groundwater compared to surface water depends on the availability of water sources and the type of water use. For public supply, withdrawals from groundwater are greater than withdrawals from surface water in the Western aggregated hydrologic regions, whereas the balance shifts to more surface water for the rest of the CONUS. In all aggregated hydrologic regions, the predominant source of water for crop irrigation is groundwater. Most thermoelectric power facilities in the eastern half of the CONUS use surface water from freshwater and saline sources; most thermoelectric power facilities in the western half of the CONUS use groundwater.

conterminous United States

Geologic map of the southern Stillwater Range, Nevada

The southern Stillwater Range in west-central Nevada contains the western part of the Oligocene Stillwater-Clan Alpine caldera complex, which extends about 55 kilometers (km) east from the west side of the Stillwater Range to the northwestern Desatoya Mountains. The complex consists of at least seven nested ignimbrite calderas and subjacent plutonic rocks emplaced into a complex basement composed of Mesozoic metasedimentary and metavolcanic rocks and Cretaceous granitic plutons. The calderas formed during large-volume (100s to greater than (>) 2,500 cubic kilometers [km 3 ]) eruptions of silicic ignimbrites between about 30.4 and 25.1 million years before present (Ma). The Job Canyon and Poco Canyon calderas and the western part of the much larger Elevenmile Canyon caldera, and their plutonic roots, are exposed in the southern Stillwater Range. There, the caldera complex was steeply tilted during large-magnitude crustal extension in the middle Miocene, and further exhumed during the late Miocene to Holocene Basin and Range extension that formed the modern Stillwater Range. This tilted crustal section affords an exceptional opportunity to view structural cross sections of ignimbrite calderas and their plutonic roots to paleodepths as much as 9–10 km.

Nevada

Toward a new framework to evaluate process-based model configurations and quantify data worth prior to calibration

Model criticism, discrimination, and selection methods often rely on calibrated model outputs. Because calibration can be computationally expensive, model criticism can first be undertaken by assessing model outputs obtained from limited prior parameter ensembles. However, such prior-based methods are often heuristic and do not formalize the notion of balancing model consistency with data and model complexity (i.e., model adequacy). We present a new framework to discriminate among candidate models prior to calibration that formalizes prior-to-calibration model adequacy into a metric to implicitly balance prior model output data coverage with model complexity represented by prior output (co)variance. The prior model adequacy metric “Mahalanobis distance deviation” quantifies the deviation of (a) the set of squared Mahalanobis distances of data from a prior model output distribution from (b) the set of squared Mahalanobis distances of data from their own distribution. A new data worth metric “discernment value” is also presented which quantifies the value of data for screening less-adequate models prior to calibration. Discernment value is calculated from the change in variance of a weighted average of prior model outputs from all candidate models due to less-adequate model outputs receiving lower weight. The framework is demonstrated using a one-dimensional groundwater flow model with eight possible configurations. A synthetic data network is used to test the framework. Results show the framework identifies the candidate models most similar to the true model used to create the synthetic data. Discernment values show variation in the value of different data types and locations for screening less-adequate models.

Water Resources Research

Simulation of the impacts of projected climate change on groundwater resources in the urban, semiarid Yucaipa Valley watershed, southern California using an integrated hydrologic model

Managing water resources in semiarid watersheds is challenging due to limited supply and uncertain future climate conditions. This paper examines the impact of future climate changes on an urban watershed in southern California using an integrated hydrologic model. GSFLOW modeling software is used to simulate the nonlinear relationships between climate trends and precipitation partitioning into ET, runoff, and subsurface storage. Four global circulation models (GCMs), each with two greenhouse-gas scenarios, RCP45 and RCP85 are used to project future climate conditions. GCMs include the CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5 models. The model's simulated hydrologic conditions are compared with historical data to assess changes in water budgets and groundwater supply. Results indicate decreased groundwater storage in most scenarios due to increased natural evapotranspiration, vegetation consumptive use, and streamflow out of the watershed. Only scenarios with substantially increased future precipitation show increased groundwater storage. The study also highlights increased future aridity despite the rise in precipitation and large precipitation events forecast by GCMs, which increase the risk of urban floods and decrease stream leakage and water available to vegetation.

California

Gaps in water quality modeling of hydrologic systems

This review assesses gaps in water quality modeling, emphasizing opportunities to improve next-generation models that are essential for managing water quality and are integral to meeting goals of scientific and management agencies. In particular, this paper identifies gaps in water quality modeling capabilities that, if addressed, could support assessments, projections, and evaluations of management alternatives to support ecosystem health and human beneficial use of water resources. It covers surface water and groundwater quality modeling, dealing with a broad suite of physical, biogeochemical, and anthropogenic drivers. Modeling capabilities for six constituents (or constituent categories) are explored: water temperature, salinity, nutrients, sediment, geogenic constituents, and contaminants of emerging concern. Each constituent was followed through the coupled atmospheric-hydrologic-human system, with prominent modeling gaps described for a diverse array of relevant inputs, processes, and human activities. Commonly identified modeling gaps primarily fall under three types: (1) model gaps, (2) data gaps, and (3) process understanding gaps. In addition to potential solutions for addressing specific individual modeling limitations, some broad approaches (e.g., enhanced data collection and compilation, machine learning, reduced-complexity modeling) are discussed as ways forward for tackling multiple gaps. This gap analysis establishes a framework of diverse approaches that may support improved process representation, scale, and accuracy of models for a wide range of water quality issues.

Water

Site-specific amplifications in Northwestern Turkiye: A generic approach

In this study, we derive generic site amplification functions applicable to Northwestern Türkiye and follow guidance on site classifications established by the United States National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP). We employ the one-dimensional (1-D) equivalent linear ground response analysis method and focus on recordings from a select suite of free-field strong motion (SM) stations. These particular SM stations are associated with a comprehensive geotechnical site conditions dataset comprising 76 shear-wave velocity profiles. Despite their varying resolutions and depths, this diversity allows for a more representative analysis across different site conditions, enhancing the robustness of our findings. For analyses, we utilize a robust set of global ground motion records, selected from both within and outside of Türkiye, to serve as strong and weak input bedrock motions. Site amplification is determined by propagating these bedrock records through 76 site-specific Afet ve Acil Durum Yönetimi Başkanlığı (AFAD) station profiles and calculating the spectral acceleration ratio between the ground surface and the input motion. Our analyses reveal substantial disparities between the amplification functions derived from 1-D site response analyses using strong and weak input motions. These disparities are central to our analysis and inform the subsequent comparison with site amplification functions reported in the literature. We compare the generic site amplification functions derived in this study with those reported in the literature for regions with similar geological and seismic conditions to Northwestern Türkiye. For example, site amplification functions for NEHRP Site Classes C and D have been documented for Greece and the United States utilizing frequency-dependent methods such as the quarter-wavelength approximation. Our findings reveal that the generic site amplification functions derived in this study exhibit differences in peak amplitudes and predominant frequencies compared to those in the literature, reflecting regional variations in geotechnical and seismic properties. This study represents an initial effort to formulate generic site amplification functions for Türkiye, with a particular emphasis on the Northwestern region. A thorough literature review indicated no prior studies have proposed such functions specifically for this area.

Northwestern Turkiye