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At least 1,279 records · Page 71Linked to original sources

USGS2018

Consortial brown tide − picocyanobacteria blooms in Guantánamo Bay, Cuba

A brown tide bloom of Aureoumbra lagunensis developed in Guantánamo Bay, Cuba during a period of drought in 2013 that followed heavy winds and rainfall from Hurricane Sandy in late October 2012. Based on satellite images and water turbidity measurements, the bloom appeared to initiate in January 2013. The causative species ( A. lagunensis ) was confirmed by microscopic observation, and pigment and genetic analyses of bloom samples collected on May 28 of that year. During that time, A. lagunensis reached concentrations of 900,000 cells ml −1 (28 ppm by biovolume) in the middle portion of the Bay. Samples could not be collected from the northern (Cuban) half of the Bay because of political considerations. Subsequent sampling of the southern half of the Bay in November 2013, April 2014, and October 2014 showed persistent lower concentrations of A. lagunensis , with dominance shifting to the cyanobacterium Synechococcus (up to 33 ppm in April), an algal group that comprised a minor bloom component on May 28. Thus, unlike the brown tide bloom in Laguna Madre, which lasted 8 years, the bloom in Guantánamo Bay was short-lived, much like recent blooms in the Indian River, Florida. Although hypersaline conditions have been linked to brown tide development in the lagoons of Texas and Florida, observed euhaline conditions in Guantánamo Bay (salinity 35–36) indicate that strong hypersalinity is not a requirement for A. lagunensis bloom formation. Microzooplankton biomass dominated by ciliates was high during the observed peak of the brown tide, and ciliate abundance was high compared to other systems not impacted by brown tide. Preferential grazing by zooplankton on non-brown tide species, as shown in A. lagunensis blooms in Texas and Florida, may have been a factor in the development of the Cuban brown tide bloom. However, subsequent selection of microzooplankton capable of utilizing A. lagunensis as a primary food source may have contributed to the short-lived duration of the brown tide bloom in Guantánamo Bay.

Guantánamo Bay↗

USGS2018

Low-dose stimulation of growth of the harmful alga, Prymnesium parvum, by glyphosate and glyphosate-based herbicides

Glyphosate-based herbicides (GBH) are widely used around the globe. While generally toxic to phototrophs, organic phosphorus in glyphosate can become available to glyphosate-resistant phytoplankton and contribute to algal bloom development. Few studies have examined the effects of GBH on growth of eukaryotic microalgae and information for the toxic bloom-forming haptophyte, Prymnesium parvum , is limited. Using a batch-culture system, this study examined the effects on P. parvum growth of a single application of Roundup Weed and Grass Killer Super Concentrate Plus® (Roundup SC), Roundup Weed and Grass Killer Ready-to-Use III® (Roundup RtU), and technical-grade glyphosate at low concentrations [0-1000 μg glyphosate acid equivalent (ae) l -1 ]. Roundup formulations differ in the percent of glyphosate as active ingredient (Roundup SC, ∼50%; Roundup RtU, 2%), allowing indirect evaluation of the influence of inactive ingredients. Roundup SC enhanced exponential growth rate at 10-1000 μg glyphosate ae l -1 , and a positive monotonic association was noted between Roundup SC concentration and early (pre-exponential growth) but not maximum cell density. Glyphosate and both Roundup formulations enhanced growth rate at 100 μg glyphosate l -1 , but only Roundup SC and glyphosate significantly stimulated early and maximum density. This observation suggests the higher concentration of inactive ingredients and other compounds in Roundup RtU partially counteracts glyphosate-dependent growth stimulation. When phosphate concentration was varied while maintaining other conditions constant, addition of Roundup SC and glyphosate at 100 μg l -1 influenced growth more strongly than equivalent changes in phosphate-associated phosphorus. It appears, therefore, that low doses of glyphosate stimulate growth by mechanisms unrelated to the associated small increases in total phosphorus. In conclusion, glyphosate and GBH stimulate P. parvum growth at low, environmentally relevant concentrations. This finding raises concerns about the potential contribution to P. parvum blooms by glyphosate-contaminated runoff or by direct application of GBH to aquatic environments.

Harmful Algae↗

USGS2024

Linking avian malaria parasitemia estimates from quantitative PCR and microscopy reveals new infection patterns in Hawai'i

Plasmodium parasites infect thousands of species and provide an exceptional system for studying host-pathogen dynamics, especially for multi-host pathogens. However, understanding these interactions requires an accurate assay of infection. Assessing Plasmodium infections using microscopy on blood smears often misses infections with low parasitemias (the fractions of cells infected), and biases in malaria prevalence estimates will differ among hosts that differ in mean parasitemias. We examined Plasmodium relictum infection and parasitemia using both microscopy of blood smears and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) on 299 samples from multiple bird species in Hawai'i and fit models to predict parasitemias from qPCR cycle threshold (Ct) values. We used these models to quantify the extent to which microscopy underestimated infection prevalence and to more accurately estimate infection patterns for each species for a large historical study done by microscopy. We found that most qPCR-positive wild-caught birds in Hawaii had low parasitemias (Ct scores ≥35), which were rarely detected by microscopy. The fraction of infections missed by microscopy differed substantially among eight species due to differences in species’ parasitemia levels. Infection prevalence was likely 4–5-fold higher than previous microscopy estimates for three introduced species, including Zosterops japonicus , Hawaii’s most abundant forest bird, which had low average parasitemias. In contrast, prevalence was likely only 1.5–2.3-fold higher than previous estimates for Himatione sanguinea and Chlorodrepanis virens , two native species with high average parasitemias. Our results indicate that relative patterns of infection among species differ substantially from those observed in previous microscopy studies, and that differences depend on variation in parasitemias among species. Although microscopy of blood smears is useful for estimating the frequency of different Plasmodium stages and host attributes, more sensitive quantitative methods, including qPCR, are needed to accurately estimate and compare infection prevalence among host species.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2006

Simulation of solute transport across low-permeability barrier walls

Low-permeability, non-reactive barrier walls are often used to contain contaminants in an aquifer. Rates of solute transport through such barriers are typically many orders of magnitude slower than rates through the aquifer. Nevertheless, the success of remedial actions may be sensitive to these low rates of transport. Two numerical simulation methods for representing low-permeability barriers in a finite-difference groundwater-flow and transport model were tested. In the first method, the hydraulic properties of the barrier were represented directly on grid cells and in the second method, the intercell hydraulic-conductance values were adjusted to approximate the reduction in horizontal flow, allowing use of a coarser and computationally efficient grid. The alternative methods were tested and evaluated on the basis of hypothetical test problems and a field case involving tetrachloroethylene (PCE) contamination at a Superfund site in New Hampshire. For all cases, advective transport across the barrier was negligible, but preexisting numerical approaches to calculate dispersion yielded dispersive fluxes that were greater than expected. A transport model (MODFLOW-GWT) was modified to (1) allow different dispersive and diffusive properties to be assigned to the barrier than the adjacent aquifer and (2) more accurately calculate dispersion from concentration gradients and solute fluxes near barriers. The new approach yields reasonable and accurate concentrations for the test cases.

Journal of Contaminant Hydrology↗

USGS2007

Insights into the use of time-lapse GPR data as observations for inverse multiphase flow simulations of DNAPL migration

Perchloroethylene (PCE) saturations determined from GPR surveys were used as observations for inversion of multiphase flow simulations of a PCE injection experiment (Borden 9??m cell), allowing for the estimation of optimal bulk intrinsic permeability values. The resulting fit statistics and analysis of residuals (observed minus simulated PCE saturations) were used to improve the conceptual model. These improvements included adjustment of the elevation of a permeability contrast, use of the van Genuchten versus Brooks-Corey capillary pressure-saturation curve, and a weighting scheme to account for greater measurement error with larger saturation values. A limitation in determining PCE saturations through one-dimensional GPR modeling is non-uniqueness when multiple GPR parameters are unknown (i.e., permittivity, depth, and gain function). Site knowledge, fixing the gain function, and multiphase flow simulations assisted in evaluating non-unique conceptual models of PCE saturation, where depth and layering were reinterpreted to provide alternate conceptual models. Remaining bias in the residuals is attributed to the violation of assumptions in the one-dimensional GPR interpretation (which assumes flat, infinite, horizontal layering) resulting from multidimensional influences that were not included in the conceptual model. While the limitations and errors in using GPR data as observations for inverse multiphase flow simulations are frustrating and difficult to quantify, simulation results indicate that the error and bias in the PCE saturation values are small enough to still provide reasonable optimal permeability values. The effort to improve model fit and reduce residual bias decreases simulation error even for an inversion based on biased observations and provides insight into alternate GPR data interpretations. Thus, this effort is warranted and provides information on bias in the observation data when this bias is otherwise difficult to assess. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Contaminant Hydrology↗

USGS2012

Osteosarcoma of the maxilla with concurrent osteoma in a southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis)

Southern sea otters ( Enhydra lutris nereis ) are threatened marine mammals that belong to the family Mustelidae and are native to the coast of Central California. Neoplasia is reported infrequently in sea otters. An adult female free-ranging southern sea otter was found alive at Pebble Beach, Monterey County, California, on January 1st, 1994 and died soon after capture. The carcass was submitted to the US Geological Survey – National Wildlife Health Center for necropsy examination. Grossly, a mass with rubbery texture was firmly attached to the left maxillary region of the skull and the nasopharynx was occluded by soft neoplastic tissue. Post-mortem skull radiographs showed an oval, smoothly marginated mineralized opaque mass centered on the left maxilla, extending from the canine tooth to caudal to the molar and replacing portions of the zygomatic arch and palatine and temporal bones. The majority of the mass protruded laterally from the maxilla and was characterized by central homogeneous mineral opacity. Microscopically, the mass was characterized by fully differentiated lamellar non-osteonal bone that expanded beyond the margins of the adjacent normal osteonal bone. Sections of the nasopharyngeal mass were comprised of moderately pleomorphic cells with bony stroma. Gross, microscopical and radiological findings were compatible with maxillary osteosarcoma with concurrent osteoma.

California↗

USGS2013

Sensitivity of fish density estimates to standard analytical procedures applied to Great Lakes hydroacoustic data

Standardized methods of data collection and analysis ensure quality and facilitate comparisons among systems. We evaluated the importance of three recommendations from the Standard Operating Procedure for hydroacoustics in the Laurentian Great Lakes (GLSOP) on density estimates of target species: noise subtraction; setting volume backscattering strength (S v ) thresholds from user-defined minimum target strength (TS) of interest (TS-based S v threshold); and calculations of an index for multiple targets (N v index) to identify and remove biased TS values. Eliminating noise had the predictable effect of decreasing density estimates in most lakes. Using the TS-based Sv threshold decreased fish densities in the middle and lower layers in the deepest lakes with abundant invertebrates (e.g., Mysis diluviana). Correcting for biased in situ TS increased measured density up to 86% in the shallower lakes, which had the highest fish densities. The current recommendations by the GLSOP significantly influence acoustic density estimates, but the degree of importance is lake dependent. Applying GLSOP recommendations, whether in the Laurentian Great Lakes or elsewhere, will improve our ability to compare results among lakes. We recommend further development of standards, including minimum TS and analytical cell size, for reducing the effect of biased in situ TS on density estimates.

Great Lakes↗

USGS2021

A review of osmoregulation in lamprey

Lamprey are living representatives of the basal vertebrate agnathan lineage. Many lamprey species are anadromous with a complex life cycle that includes metamorphosis from a freshwater (FW) benthic filter-feeding larva into a parasitic juvenile which migrates to seawater (SW) or (in landlocked populations) large bodies of FW. After a juvenile/adult trophic period that can last up to two years, adults return to rivers and migrate upstream to spawn in FW. Therefore, the osmoregulatory challenges anadromous lamprey face during migrations are similar to those of derived diadromous jawed fishes because lamprey osmoregulate to maintain plasma osmolality at approximately one third SW as well. While in FW, lamprey gills actively take up ions and their kidneys excrete excess water to compensate for passive ion loss and water gain. When in SW, lamprey drink SW and their gills actively secrete excess ions (to compensate for salt loading and dehydration). Nevertheless, lampreys diverged from the rest of the vertebrate lineage more than 500 million years ago, which is reflected in similarities and differences in ionocyte (ion transport cell) ultrastructure and distribution as well as tight junctions in epithelia. The current review discusses recent advances in our understanding of ion transport mechanisms of lamprey with a focus on sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) due to the large literature on this species. We emphasize key molecular and cellular mechanisms in osmoregulatory organs (i.e., gill, kidney and gut) and provide insight relative to what is known in other fishes and identify areas where more research is needed.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

USGS2024

Hepatotoxic response of perfluorooctane sulfonamide (PFOSA) in early life stage zebrafish (Danio rerio) is greater than perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS)

Perfluorooctane sulfonamide (PFOSA), a typical perfluorooctane sulfonate precursor (PreFOS), has been detected in the aquatic environment globally. However, the effects of PFOSA at levels measured in the environment have not been well characterized in aquatic organisms. In this study, we evaluated the transcriptional, biochemical, histopathological, and morphological effects of PFOSA to characterize the underlying mechanisms of toxicity by using a universal model in aquatic ecotoxicology, zebrafish ( Danio rerio ). Transcriptional changes in PFOSA-exposed zebrafish predicted hepatic fibrosis and associated immune function. Subsequent, sublethal impacts were observed, which included significant alterations in liver-specific protein levels, increased immune cell numbers, and liver pathological structural damage. In addition, we compared the effects caused by PFOSA and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) at the same exposure concentration and found a greater hepatotoxic effect of PFOSA relative to PFOS, indicating that the adverse impacts of PFOSA may be more severe. This was the first study to comparatively explore the hepatotoxic response of PFOSA and PFOS in aquatic organisms, which can be used for ecological risk assessments of PreFOS compounds.

Journal of Hazardous Materials↗

USGS2006

Estimating recharge using relations between precipitation and yield in a mountainous area with large variability in precipitation

Estimates of recharge to bedrock aquifers from infiltration of precipitation can be difficult to obtain, especially in areas with large spatial and temporal variability in precipitation. In the Black Hills area of western South Dakota and eastern Wyoming, streamflow yield is highly influenced by annual precipitation, with yield efficiency (annual yield divided by annual precipitation) increasing with increasing annual precipitation. Spatial variability in annual yield characteristics for Black Hills streams is predictably influenced by precipitation patterns. Relations between precipitation and yield efficiency were used to estimate annual recharge from long-term records of annual precipitation. A series of geographic information system algorithms was used to derive annual estimates for 1000- by 1000-m grid cells. These algorithms were composited to derive estimates of annual recharge rates to the Madison and Minnelusa aquifers in the Black Hills area of western South Dakota and eastern Wyoming during water years 1931-1998 and an estimate of average recharge for water years 1950-1998. This approach provides a systematic method of obtaining consistent and reproducible estimates of recharge from infiltration of precipitation. Resulting estimates of average annual recharge (water years 1950-1998) ranged from 1 cm in the southern Black Hills to 22 cm in the northwestern Black Hills. Recharge rates to these aquifers from infiltration of precipitation on outcrops was estimated to range from 0.9 m 3/s in 1936 to 18.8 m3/s in 1995.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2007

Distributed energy-balance modeling of snow-cover evolution and melt in rugged terrain: Tobacco Root Mountains, Montana, USA

A distributed energy-balance model was developed for simulating snowpack evolution and melt in rugged terrain. The model, which was applied to a 43-km2 watershed in the Tobacco Root Mountains, Montana, USA, used measured ambient data from nearby weather stations to drive energy-balance calculations and to constrain the model of Liston and Sturm [Liston, G.E., Sturm, M., 1998. A snow-transport model for complex terrain. Journal of Glaciology 44 (148), 498-516] for calculating the initial snowpack thickness. Simulated initial snow-water equivalent ranged between 1 cm and 385 cm w.e. (water equivalent) with high values concentrated on east-facing slopes below tall summits. An interpreted satellite image of the snowcover distribution on May 6, 1998, closely matched the simulated distribution with the greatest discrepancy occurring in the floor of the main trunk valley. Model simulations indicated that snowmelt commenced early in the melt season, but rapid meltout of snow cover did not occur until after the average energy balance of the entire watershed became positive about 45 days into the melt season. Meltout was fastest in the lower part of the watershed where warmer temperatures and tree cover enhanced the energy income of the underlying snow. An interpreted satellite image of the snowcover distribution on July 9, 1998 compared favorably with the simulated distribution, and melt curves for modeled canopy-covered cells mimicked the trends measured at nearby snow pillow stations. By the end of the simulation period (August 3), 28% of the watershed remained snow covered, most of which was concentrated in the highest parts of the watershed where initially thick accumulations had been shaded by surrounding summits. The results of this study provide further demonstration of the critical role that topography plays in the timing and magnitude of snowmelt from high mountain watersheds. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2013

Temporal and spatial variability of groundwater recharge on Jeju Island, Korea

Estimates of groundwater recharge spatial and temporal variability are essential inputs to groundwater flow models that are used to test groundwater availability under different management and climate conditions. In this study, a soil water balance analysis was conducted to estimate groundwater recharge on the island of Jeju, Korea, for baseline, drought, and climate-land use change scenarios. The Soil Water Balance (SWB) computer code was used to compute groundwater recharge and other water balance components at a daily time step using a 100 m grid cell size for an 18-year baseline scenario (1992–2009). A 10-year drought scenario was selected from historical precipitation trends (1961–2009), while the climate-land use change scenario was developed using late 21st century climate projections and a change in urban land use. Mean annual recharge under the baseline, drought, and climate-land use scenarios was estimated at 884, 591, and 788 mm, respectively. Under the baseline scenario, mean annual recharge was within the range of previous estimates (825–959 mm) and only slightly lower than the mean of 902 mm. As a fraction of mean annual rainfall, mean annual recharge was computed as only 42% and less than previous estimates of 44–48%. The maximum historical reported annual pumping rate of 241 × 10 6 m 3 equates to 15% of baseline recharge, which is within the range of 14–16% computed from earlier studies. The model does not include a mechanism to account for additional sources of groundwater recharge, such as fog drip, irrigation, and artificial recharge, and may also overestimate evapotranspiration losses. Consequently, the results presented in this study represent a conservative estimate of total recharge.

Jeju↗

USGS2024

Remote sensing evapotranspiration in ensemble-based framework to enhance cascade routing and re-infiltration concept in integrated hydrological model applied to support decision making

Integrated hydrological models (IHMs) help characterize the complexity of surface–groundwater interactions. The cascade routing and re-infiltration (CRR) concept, recently applied to a MODFLOW 6 IHM, improved conceptualization and simulation of overland flow processes. The CRR controls the transfer of rejected infiltration and groundwater exfiltration from upslope areas to adjacent downslope areas where that water can be evaporated, re-infiltrated back to subsurface, or discharged to streams as direct runoff. The partitioning between these three components is controlled by uncertain parameters that must be estimated. Thus, by quantifying and reducing those uncertainties, next to uncertainties of the other model parameters (e.g. hydraulic and storage parameters), the reliability of the CRR is improved and the IHM is better suited for decision support modelling, the two key objectives of this work. To this end, the remotely sensed MODIS-ET product was incorporated into the calibration process for complementing traditional hydraulic head and streamflow observations. A total of approximately 150,000 observations guided the calibration of a 13-year MODFLOW 6 IHM simulation of the Sardon catchment (Spain) with daily stress periods. The model input uncertainty was represented by grid-cell-scale parameterization, yielding approximately 500,000 unknown input parameters to be conditioned. The calibration was carried out through an iterative ensemble smoother. Incorporating the MODIS-ET data improved the CRR implementation, and reduced uncertainties associated with other model parameters. Additionally, it significantly reduced the uncertainty associated with net recharge, a critical flux for water management that cannot be directly measured and rather is commonly estimated by IHM simulations.

Sardon catchment↗

USGS2014

Gross and microscopic pathology of hard and soft corals in New Caledonia

We surveyed the reefs of Grande Terre, New Caledonia, for coral diseases in 2010 and 2013. Lesions encountered in hard and soft corals were systematically described at the gross and microscopic level. We sampled paired and normal tissues from 101 and 65 colonies in 2010 and 2013, respectively, comprising 51 species of corals from 27 genera. Tissue loss was the most common gross lesion sampled (40%) followed by discoloration (28%), growth anomalies (13%), bleaching (10%), and flatworm infestation (1%). When grouped by gross lesions, the diversity of microscopic lesions as measured by Shannon–Wiener index was highest for tissue loss, followed by discoloration, bleaching, and growth anomaly. Our findings document an extension of the range of certain diseases such as Porites trematodiasis and endolithic hypermycosis (dark spots) to the Western Pacific as well as the presence of a putative cnidarian endosymbiont. We also expand the range of species infected by cell-associated microbial aggregates, and confirm the trend that these aggregates predominate in dominant genera of corals in the Indo-Pacific. This study highlights the importance of including histopathology as an integral component of baseline coral disease surveys, because a given gross lesion might be associated with multiple potential causative agents.

Grande Terre, New Caledonia↗

USGS2016

Wound repair in Pocillopora

Corals routinely lose tissue due to causes ranging from predation to disease. Tissue healing and regeneration are fundamental to the normal functioning of corals, yet we know little about this process. We described the microscopic morphology of wound repair in Pocillopora damicornis . Tissue was removed by airbrushing fragments from three healthy colonies, and these were monitored daily at the gross and microscopic level for 40 days. Grossly, corals healed by Day 30, but repigmentation was not evident at the end of the study (40 d). On histology, from Day 8 onwards, tissues at the lesion site were microscopically indistinguishable from adjacent normal tissues with evidence of zooxanthellae in gastrodermis. Inflammation was not evident. P . damicornis manifested a unique mode of regeneration involving projections of cell-covered mesoglea from the surface body wall that anastomosed to form gastrovascular canals.

Journal of Invertebrate Pathology↗

USGS2021

Novel diagnostic tests for the putative agent of bacterial gill disease in Pacific razor clams (Siliqua patula)

Nuclear inclusion X (NIX) is a gamma proteobacteria that infects the nuclei of gill epithelial cells in Pacific razor clams. NIX has been associated with clam die-offs in coastal Washington. A quantitative PCR (qPCR) assay was developed to detect NIX in Pacific razor clams, and assay specificity was confirmed by chromogenic in situ hybridization (CISH). Both tests were applied to evaluate NIX infections in wild Pacific razor clams collected during spring 2019. Consistent with results from earlier histopathological assessments, qPCR and CISH indicated 100% prevalence in razor clams from two Washington beaches and 0% prevalence from two Alaskan beaches.

Alaska, Washington↗

USGS2024

Pathology of tissue loss in three key gorgonian species in the Mediterranean Sea

The Mediterranean is known for its marine biodiversity, especially gorgonian forests. Unfortunately, these are experiencing rapid declines due to climate change, manifested by repeated marine heat waves resulting in mass mortality events since the early 1990 s. To better understand why gorgonians are declining, more systematic approaches to investigate the exact causes are needed, and pathology may aid in this goal. We described gross and microscopic pathology of tissue loss in three key gorgonian species in the Mediterranean region, Paramuricea clavata , Eunicella cavolini , and Leptogorgia sarmentosa , that were all experiencing various degrees of acute to subacute tissue loss characterized by exposed axial skeleton sometimes partly colonized by epibionts and thinning of adjacent tissues. The most significant variety of lesions was seen in P. clavata followed by L. sarmentosa and E. cavolini. For all species, dissociation of gastrodermal cells was the dominant microscopic lesion followed by necrosis of the gastrodermis. Ciliates invading gastrodermis and associated with necrosis of polyps were seen only in E. cavolini. Epidermal tissue loss was seen only in L. sarmentosa , while P. clavata was distinguished by a prominent inflammatory response and unidentified dark round structures within the tentacle epidermis and gastrodermis with no host response. Further work to understand the cause of death in gorgonians is needed, particularly to elucidate the role of ciliates and environmental co-factors or infectious agents not visible on light microscopy, as well as applications of additional tools such as cytology.

Journal of Invertebrate Pathology↗

USGS2010

Predicting potentially toxigenic Pseudo-nitzschia blooms in the Chesapeake Bay

Harmful algal blooms are now recognized as a significant threat to the Chesapeake Bay as they can severely compromise the economic viability of important recreational and commercial fisheries in the largest estuary of the United States. This study describes the development of empirical models for the potentially domoic acid-producing Pseudo-nitzschia species complex present in the Bay, developed from a 22-year time series of cell abundance and concurrent measurements of hydrographic and chemical properties. Using a logistic Generalized Linear Model (GLM) approach, model parameters and performance were compared over a range of Pseudo-nitzschia bloom thresholds relevant to toxin production by different species. Small-threshold blooms (???10cellsmL-1) are explained by time of year, location, and variability in surface values of phosphate, temperature, nitrate plus nitrite, and freshwater discharge. Medium- (100cellsmL-1) to large- threshold (1000cellsmL-1) blooms are further explained by salinity, silicic acid, dissolved organic carbon, and light attenuation (Secchi) depth. These predictors are similar to other models for Pseudo-nitzschia blooms on the west coast, suggesting commonalities across ecosystems. Hindcasts of bloom probabilities at a 19% bloom prediction point yield a Heidke Skill Score of -53%, a Probability of Detection ~75%, a False Alarm Ratio of ~52%, and a Probability of False Detection ~9%. The implication of possible future changes in Baywide nutrient stoichiometry on Pseudo-nitzschia blooms is discussed. ?? 2010 Elsevier B.V.

Journal of Marine Systems↗